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142 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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Lars Doucet — Progress, poverty, Georgism, & why rent is too damn high
9 januari 2023 · 1 uur 40 min
One of my best episodes ever. Lars Doucet is the author of Land is a Big Deal, a book about Georgism which has been praised by Vitalik Buterin, Scott Alexander, and Noah Smith. Sam Altman is the lead investor in his new startup, ValueBase. Lees meer
Talking with Lars completely changed how I think about who creates value in the world and who leeches off it.
We go deep into the weeds on Georgism:
* Why do even the wealthiest places in the world have poverty and homelessness, and why do rents increase as fast as wages?
* Why are land-owners able to extract the profits that rightly belong to labor and capital?
* How would taxing the value of land alleviate speculation, NIMBYism, and income and sales taxes?
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow Lars on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) - Intro
(00:01:11) - Georgism
(00:03:16) - Metaverse Housing Crises
(00:07:10) - Tax Leisure?
(00:13:53) - Speculation & Frontiers
(00:24:33) - Social Value of Search
(00:33:13) - Will Georgism Destroy The Economy?
(00:38:51) - The Economics of San Francisco
(00:43:31) - Transfer from Landowners to Google?
(00:46:47) - Asian Tigers and Land Reform
(00:51:19) - Libertarian Georgism
(00:55:42) - Crypto
(00:57:16) - Transitioning to Georgism
(01:02:56) - Lars's Startup & Land Assessment
(01:15:12) - Big Tech
(01:20:50) - Space
(01:23:05) - Copyright
(01:25:02) - Politics of Georgism
(01:33:10) - Someone Is Always Collecting Rents
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Holden Karnofsky — History's most important century
3 januari 2023 · 1 uur 56 min
Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell. He is also the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, Cold Takes. Lees meer
We discuss:
* Are we living in the most important century?
* Does he regret OpenPhil’s 30 million dollar grant to OpenAI in 2016?
* How does he think about AI, progress, digital people, & ethics?
Highly recommend!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - Intro
(0:00:58) - The Most Important Century
(0:06:44) - The Weirdness of Our Time
(0:21:20) - The Industrial Revolution
(0:35:40) - AI Success Scenario
(0:52:36) - Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks
(1:00:14) - Lock-in & Weak Points
(1:06:04) - Predicting the Future
(1:20:40) - Choosing Which Problem To Solve
(1:26:56) - $30M OpenAI Investment
(1:30:22) - Future Proof Ethics
(1:37:28) - Integrity vs Utilitarianism
(1:40:46) - Bayesian Mindset & Governance
(1:46:56) - Career Advice
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Bethany McLean — Enron, FTX, 2008, Musk, frauds, & visionaries
21 december 2022 · 1 uur 26 min
This was one of my favorite episodes ever. Lees meer
Bethany McLean was the first reporter to question Enron’s earnings, and she has written some of the best finance books out there.
We discuss:
* The astounding similarities between Enron & FTX,
* How visionaries are just frauds who succeed (and which category describes Elon Musk),
* What caused 2008, and whether we are headed for a new crisis,
* Why there’s too many venture capitalists and not enough short sellers,
* And why history keeps repeating itself.
McLean is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair (see her articles here) and the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room, All the Devils Are Here, Saudi America, and Shaky Ground.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite podcast platform.
Follow McLean on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:04:37) - Is Fraud Over?
(0:11:22) - Shortage of Shortsellers
(0:19:03) - Elon Musk - Fraud or Visionary?
(0:23:00) - Intelligence, Fake Deals, & Culture
(0:33:40) - Rewarding Leaders for Long Term Thinking
(0:37:00) - FTX Mafia?
(0:40:17) - Is Finance Too Big?
(0:44:09) - 2008 Collapse, Fannie & Freddie
(0:49:25) - The Big Picture
(1:00:12) - Frackers Vindicated?
(1:03:40) - Rating Agencies
(1:07:05) - Lawyers Getting Rich Off Fraud
(1:15:09) - Are Some People Fundamentally Deceptive?
(1:19:25) - Advice for Big Picture Thinkers
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Nadia Asparouhova — Tech elites, democracy, open source, & philanthropy
15 december 2022 · 1 uur 22 min
Nadia Asparouhova is currently researching what the new tech elite will look like at nadia.xyz. She is also the author of Working in Public: The Making and Maintenance of Open Source Software. Lees meer
We talk about how:
* American philanthropy has changed from Rockefeller to Effective Altruism
* SBF represented the Davos elite rather than the Silicon Valley elite,
* Open source software reveals the limitations of democratic participation,
* & much more.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - Intro
(0:00:26) - SBF was Davos elite
(0:09:38) - Gender sociology of philanthropy
(0:16:30) - Was Shakespeare an open source project?
(0:22:00) - Need for charismatic leaders
(0:33:55) - Political reform
(0:40:30) - Why didn’t previous wealth booms lead to new philanthropic movements?
(0:53:35) - Creating a 10,000 year endowment
(0:57:27) - Why do institutions become left wing?
(1:02:27) - Impact of billionaire intellectual funding
(1:04:12) - Value of intellectuals
(1:08:53) - Climate, AI, & Doomerism
(1:18:04) - Religious philanthropy
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism
1 december 2022 · 1 uur 30 min
Perhaps the most interesting episode so far. Lees meer
Byrne Hobart writes at thediff.co, analyzing inflections in finance and tech.
He explains:
* What happened at FTX
* How drugs have induced past financial bubbles
* How to be long AI while hedging Taiwan invasion
* Whether Musk’s Twitter takeover will succeed
* Where to find the next Napoleon and LBJ
* & ultimately how society can deal with those who seek domination and recognition
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps:
(0:00:50) - What the hell happened at FTX?
(0:07:03) - How SBF Faked Being a Genius:
(0:12:23) - Drugs Explain Financial Bubbles
(0:17:12) - On Founder Physiognomy
(0:21:02) - Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids
(0:30:35) - Where are all the Caro-level Biographers?
(0:39:03) - Where are today's Great Founders?
(0:48:29) - Micro Writing -> Macro Understanding
(0:51:48) - Elon's Twitter Takeover
(1:00:50) - Does Big Tech & West Have Great People?
(1:11:34) - Philosophical Fanatics and Effective Altruism
(1:17:17) - What Great Founders Have In Common
(1:19:56) - Thinkers vs. Analyzers
(1:25:40) - Taiwan Invasion bets & AI Timelines
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Edward Glaeser - Cities, Terrorism, Housing, & Remote Work
28 november 2022 · 57 min
Edward Glaeser is the chair of the Harvard department of economics, and the author of the best books and papers about cities (including Survival of the City and Triumph of the City). Lees meer
He explains why:
* Cities are resilient to terrorism, remote work, & pandemics,
* Silicon Valley may collapse but the Sunbelt will prosper,
* Opioids show UBI is not a solution to AI
* & much more!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - Mars, Terrorism, & Capitals
(0:06:32) - Decline, Population Collapse, & Young Men
(0:14:44) - Urban Education
(0:18:35) - Georgism, Robert Moses, & Too Much Democracy?
(0:25:29) - Opioids, Automation, & UBI
(0:29:57) - Remote Work, Taxation, & Metaverse
(0:42:29) - Past & Future of Silicon Valley
(0:48:56) - Housing Reform
(0:52:32) - Europe’s Stagnation, Mumbai’s Safety, & Climate Change
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Kenneth T. Jackson - Robert Moses, Hero of New York?
8 november 2022 · 1 uur 33 min
I had a fascinating discussion about Robert Moses and The Power Broker with Professor Kenneth T. Jackson. Lees meer
He's the pre-eminent historian on NYC and author of Robert Moses and The Modern City: The Transformation of New York.
He answers:
* Why are we so much worse at building things today?
* Would NYC be like Detroit without the master builder?
* Does it take a tyrant to stop NIMBY?
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) Preview + Intro
(0:11:13) How Moses Gained Power
(0:18:22) Moses Saved NYC?
(0:27:31) Moses the Startup Founder?
(0:32:34) The Case Against Moses Highways
(0:50:30) NIMBYism
(1:02:44) Is Progress Cyclical
(1:11:13) Friendship with Caro
(1:19:50) Moses the Longtermist?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Brian Potter - Future of Construction, Ugly Modernism, & Environmental Review
27 oktober 2022 · 2 uur 26 min
It was a pleasure to welcome Brian Potter on the podcast! Brian is the author of the excellent Construction Physics blog, where he discusses why the construction industry has been slow to industrialize and innovate. Lees meer
He explains why:
Construction isn’t getting cheaper and faster,
“Ugly” modern buildings are simply the result of better architecture,
China is so great at building things,
Saudi Arabia’s Line is a waste of resources,
Environmental review makes new construction expensive and delayed
and much much more!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
You may also enjoy my interviews with Tyler Cowen (about talent, collapse, & pessimism of sex). Charles Mann (about the Americas before Columbus & scientific wizardry), and Austin Vernon about (Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha).
Timestamps
(0:00) - Why Saudi Arabia’s Line is Insane, Unrealistic, and Never going to Exist
(06:54) - Designer Clothes & eBay Arbitrage Adventures
(10:10) - Unique Woes of The Construction Industry
(19:28) - The Problems of Prefabrication
(26:27) - If Building Regulations didn’t exist…
(32:20) - China’s Real Estate Bubble, Unbound Technocrats, & Japan
(44:45) - Automation and Revolutionary Future Technologies
(1:00:51) - 3D Printer Pessimism & The Rising Cost of Labour
(1:08:02) - AI’s Impact on Construction Productivity
(1:17:53) - Brian Dreams of Building a Mile High Skyscraper
(1:23:43) - Deep Dive into Environmentalism and NEPA
(1:42:04) - Software is Stealing Talent from Physical Engineering
(1:47:13) - Gaps in the Blog Marketplace of Ideas
(1:50:56) - Why is Modern Architecture So Ugly?
(2:19:58) - Advice for Aspiring Architects and Young Construction Physicists
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Bryan Caplan - Feminists, Billionaires, and Demagogues
20 oktober 2022 · 2 uur 5 min
It was a fantastic pleasure to welcome Bryan Caplan back for a third time on the podcast! His most recent book is Don't Be a Feminist: Essays on Genuine Justice. Lees meer
He explains why he thinks:
- Feminists are mostly wrong,
- We shouldn’t overtax our centi-billionaires,
- Decolonization should have emphasized human rights over democracy,
- Eastern Europe shows that we could accept millions of refugees.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
More really cool guests coming up; subscribe to find out about future episodes!
You may also enjoy my interviews with Tyler Cowen (about talent, collapse, & pessimism of sex), Charles Mann (about the Americas before Columbus & scientific wizardry), and Steve Hsu (about intelligence and embryo selection).
Timestamps
(00:12) - Don’t Be a Feminist
(16:53) - Western Feminism Ignores Infanticide
(19:59) - Why The Universe Hates Women
(32:02) - Women's Tears Have Too Much Power
(45:40) - Bryan Performs Standup Comedy!
(51:02) - Affirmative Action is Philanthropic Propaganda
(54:13) - Peer-effects as the Only Real Education
(58:24) - The Idiocy of Student Loan Forgiveness
(1:07:57) - Why Society is Becoming Mentally Ill
(1:10:50) - Open Borders & the Ultra-long Term
(1:14:37) - Why Cowen’s Talent Scouting Strategy is Ludicrous
(1:22:06) - Surprising Immigration Victories
(1:36:06) - The Most Successful Revolutions
(1:54:20) - Anarcho-Capitalism is the Ultimate Government
(1:55:40) - Billionaires Deserve their Wealth
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Tyler Cowen - Talent, Collapse, & Pessimism of Sex
28 september 2022 · 1 uur 35 min
It was my great pleasure to speak once again to Tyler Cowen. His most recent book is Talent, How to Find Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Across the World. Lees meer
We discuss:
- how sex is more pessimistic than he is,
- why he expects society to collapse permanently,
- why humility, stimulants, & intelligence are overrated,
- how he identifies talent, deceit, & ambition,
- & much much much more!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
You may also enjoy my interviews of Bryan Caplan (about mental illness, discrimination, and poverty), David Deutsch (about AI and the problems with America’s constitution), and Steve Hsu (about intelligence and embryo selection).
Timestamps
(0:00) -Did Caplan Change On Education?
(1:17) - Travel vs. History
(3:10) - Do Institutions Become Left Wing Over Time?
(6:02) - What Does Talent Correlate With?
(13:00) - Humility, Mental Illness, Caffeine, and Suits
(19:20) - How does Education affect Talent?
(24:34) - Scouting Talent
(33:39) - Money, Deceit, and Emergent Ventures
(37:16) - Building Writing Stamina
(39:41) - When Does Intelligence Start to Matter?
(43:51) - Spotting Talent (Counter)signals
(53:30) - Will Reading Cowen’s Book Help You Win Emergent Ventures?
(1:02:15) - Existential risks and the Longterm
(1:10:41) - Cultivating Young Talent
(1:16:58) - The Lifespans of Public Intellectuals
(1:24:36) - Is Stagnation Inevitable?
(1:30:30) - What are Podcasts for?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Charles C. Mann - Americas Before Columbus & Scientific Wizardry
14 september 2022 · 1 uur 31 min
Charles C. Mann is the author of three of my favorite history books: 1491. 1493, and The Wizard and the Prophet. Lees meer
We discuss:
* why Native American civilizations collapsed and why they failed to make more technological progress
* why he disagrees with Will MacAskill about longtermism
* why there aren’t any successful slave revolts
* how geoengineering can help us solve climate change
* why Bitcoin is like the Chinese Silver Trade
* and much much more!
Timestamps
(0:00:00) -Epidemically Alternate Realities
(0:00:25) -Weak Points in Empires
(0:03:28) -Slave Revolts
(0:08:43) -Slavery Ban
(0:12:46) - Contingency & The Pyramids
(0:18:13) - Teotihuacan
(0:20:02) - New Book Thesis
(0:25:20) - Gender Ratios and Silicon Valley
(0:31:15) - Technological Stupidity in the New World
(0:41:24) - Religious Demoralization
(0:43:24) - Critiques of Civilization Collapse Theories
(0:48:29) - Virginia Company + Hubris
(0:52:48) - China’s Silver Trade
(1:02:27) - Wizards vs. Prophets
(1:07:19) - In Defense of Regulatory Delays
(1:11:50) -Geoengineering
(1:16:15) -Finding New Wizards
(1:18:10) -Agroforestry is Underrated
(1:27:00) -Longtermism & Free Markets
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Austin Vernon - Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha
8 september 2022 · 2 uur 24 min
Austin Vernon is an engineer working on a new method for carbon capture, and he has one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, where he writes about engineering, software, economics, and investing. Lees meer
We discuss how energy superabundance will change the world, how Starship can be turned into a kinetic weapon, why nuclear is overrated, blockchains, batteries, flying cars, finding alpha, & much more!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow Austin on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - Intro
(0:01:53) - Starship as a Weapon
(0:19:24) - Software Productivity
(0:41:40) - Car Manufacturing
(0:57:39) - Carbon Capture
(1:16:53) - Energy Superabundance
(1:25:09) - Storage for Cheap Energy
(1:31:25) - Travel in Future
(1:33:27) - Future Cities
(1:39:58) - Flying Cars
(1:43:26) - Carbon Shortage
(1:48:03) - Nuclear
(2:12:44) - Solar
(2:14:44) - Alpha & Efficient Markets
(2:22:51) - Conclusion
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Steve Hsu - Intelligence, Embryo Selection, & The Future of Humanity
23 augustus 2022 · 2 uur 21 min
Steve Hsu is a Professor of Theoretical Physics at Michigan State University and cofounder of the company Genomic Prediction. Lees meer
We go deep into the weeds on how embryo selection can make babies healthier and smarter.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Read the full transcript here.
Follow Steve on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00:14) - Feynman’s advice on picking up women
(0:11:46) - Embryo selection
(0:24:19) - Why hasn't natural selection already optimized humans?
(0:34:13) - Aging
(0:43:18) - First Mover Advantage
(0:53:38) - Genomics in dating
(0:59:20) - Ancestral populations
(1:07:07) - Is this eugenics?
(1:15:08) - Tradeoffs to intelligence
(1:24:25) - Consumer preferences
(1:29:34) - Gwern
(1:33:55) - Will parents matter?
(1:44:45) - Wordcels and shape rotators
(1:56:45) - Bezos and brilliant physicists
(2:09:35) - Elite education
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Will MacAskill - Longtermism, Altruism, History, & Technology
9 augustus 2022 · 56 min
Will MacAskill is one of the founders of the Effective Altruist movement and the author of the upcoming book, What We Owe The Future. Lees meer
We talk about improving the future, risk of extinction & collapse, technological & moral change, problems of academia, who changes history, and much more.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website + Transcript here.
Follow Will on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps
(00:23) - Effective Altruism and Western values
(07:47) - The contingency of technology
(12:02) - Who changes history?
(18:00) - Longtermist institutional reform
(25:56) - Are companies longtermist?
(28:57) - Living in an era of plasticity
(34:52) - How good can the future be?
(39:18) - Contra Tyler Cowen on what’s most important
(45:36) - AI and the centralization of power
(51:34) - The problems with academia
Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!
Transcript
Dwarkesh Patel 0:06
Okay, today I have the pleasure of interviewing William MacAskill. Will is one of the founders of the Effective Altruism movement, and most recently, the author of the upcoming book, What We Owe The Future. Will, thanks for coming on the podcast.
Will MacAskill 0:20
Thanks so much for having me on.
Effective Altruism and Western values
Dwarkesh Patel 0:23
My first question is: What is the high-level explanation for the success of the Effective Altruism movement? Is it itself an example of the contingencies you talk about in the book?
Will MacAskill 0:32
Yeah, I think it is contingent. Maybe not on the order of, “this would never have happened,” but at least on the order of decades. Evidence that Effective Altruism is somewhat contingent is that similar ideas have been promoted many times during history, and not taken on.
We can go back to ancient China, the Mohists defended an impartial view of morality, and took…
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Joseph Carlsmith - Utopia, AI, & Infinite Ethics
3 augustus 2022 · 1 uur 31 min
Joseph Carlsmith is a senior research analyst at Open Philanthropy and a doctoral student in philosophy at the University of Oxford. Lees meer
We discuss utopia, artificial intelligence, computational power of the brain, infinite ethics, learning from the fact that you exist, perils of futurism, and blogging.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.
Episode website + Transcript here.
Follow Joseph on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter.
Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps
(0:00:06) - Introduction
(0:02:53) - How to Define a Better Future?
(0:09:19) - Utopia
(0:25:12) - Robin Hanson’s EMs
(0:27:35) - Human Computational Capacity
(0:34:15) - FLOPS to Emulate Human Cognition?
(0:40:15) - Infinite Ethics
(1:00:51) - SIA vs SSA
(1:17:53) - Futurism & Unreality
(1:23:36) - Blogging & Productivity
(1:28:43) - Book Recommendations
(1:30:04) - Conclusion
Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship
27 juli 2022 · 2 uur 20 min
Fin Moorhouse is a Research Scholar and assistant to Toby Ord at Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute. He co-hosts the Hear This Idea podcast, which showcases new thinking in philosophy, the social sciences, and effective altruism. Lees meer
We discuss for-profit entrepreneurship for altruism, space governance, morality in the multiverse, podcasting, the long reflection, and the Effective Ideas & EA criticism blog prize.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.
Episode website + Transcript here.Follow Fin on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter.
Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps
(0:00:10) - Introduction
(0:02:45) - EA Prizes & Criticism
(0:09:47) - Longtermism
(0:12:52) - Improving Mental Models
(0:20:50) - EA & Profit vs Nonprofit Entrepreneurship
(0:30:46) - Backtesting EA
(0:35:54) - EA Billionares
(0:38:32) - EA Decisions & Many Worlds Interpretation
(0:50:46) - EA Talent Search
(0:52:38) - EA & Encouraging Youth
(0:59:17) - Long Reflection
(1:03:56) - Long Term Coordination
(1:21:06) - On Podcasting
(1:23:40) - Audiobooks Imitating Conversation
(1:27:04) - Underappreciated Podcasting Skills
(1:38:08) - Space Governance
(1:42:09) - Space Safety & 1st Principles
(1:46:44) - Von Neuman Probes
(1:50:12) - Space Race & First Strike
(1:51:45) - Space Colonization & AI
(1:56:36) - Building a Startup
(1:59:08) - What is EA Underrating?
(2:10:07) - EA Career Steps
(2:15:16) - Closing Remarks
Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Alexander Mikaberidze - Napoleon, War, Progress, and Global Order
13 juli 2022 · 1 uur 23 min
Alexander Mikaberidze is Professor of History at Louisiana State University and the author of The Napoleonic Wars: A Global History. Lees meer
He explains the global ramifications of the Napoleonic Wars - from India to Egypt to America. He also talks about how Napoleon was the last of the enlightened despots, whether he would have made a good startup founder, how the Napoleonic Wars accelerated the industrial revolution, the roots of the war in Ukraine, and much more!
Watch on YouTube, or listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website + Transcript here. Follow Professor Mikaberidze on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) Alexander Mikaberidze - Professor of history and author of “The Napoleonic Wars”
(0:01:19) - The allure of Napoleon
(0:13:48) - The advantages of multiple colonies
(0:27:33) - The Continental System and the industrial revolution
(0:34:49) - Napoleon’s legacy.
(0:50:38) - The impact of Napoleonic Wars
(1:01:23) - Napoleon as a startup founder
(1:14:02) The advantages of war and how it shaped international government and to some extent, political structures.
Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Sam Bankman-Fried - Crypto, Altruism, and Leadership
5 juli 2022 · 45 min
I flew to the Bahamas to interview Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO of FTX! He talks about FTX’s plan to infiltrate traditional finance, giving $100m this year to AI + pandemic risk, scaling slowly + hiring A-players, and much more. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website + Transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes
Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps
(00:18) - How inefficient is the world?
(01:11) - Choosing a career
(04:15) - The difficulty of being a founder
(06:21) - Is effective altruism too narrowminded?
(09:57) - Political giving
(12:55) - FTX Future Fund
(16:41) - Adverse selection in philanthropy
(18:06) - Correlation between different causes
(22:15) - Great founders do difficult things
(25:51) - Pitcher fatigue and the importance of focus
(28:30) - How SBF identifies talent
(31:09) - Why scaling too fast kills companies
(33:51) - The future of crypto
(35:46) - Risk, efficiency, and human discretion in derivatives
(41:00) - Jane Street vs FTX
(41:56) - Conflict of interest between broker and exchange
(42:59) - Bahamas and Charter Cities
(43:47) - SBF’s RAM-skewed mind
Unfortunately, audio quality abruptly drops from 17:50-19:15
Transcript
Dwarkesh Patel 0:09
Today on The Lunar Science Society Podcast, I have the pleasure of interviewing Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of FTX. Thanks for coming on The Lunar Society.
Sam Bankman-Fried 0:17
Thanks for having me.
How inefficient is the world?
Dwarkesh Patel 0:18
Alright, first question. Does the consecutive success of FTX and Alameda suggest to you that the world has all kinds of low-hanging opportunities? Or was that a property of the inefficiencies of crypto markets at one particular point in history?
Sam Bankman-Fried 0:31
I think it's more of the former, there are just a lot of inefficiencies.
Dwarkesh Patel 0:35
So then another part of the question is: if you had to restart earnin…
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Agustin Lebron - Trading, Crypto, and Adverse Selection
23 juni 2022 · 1 uur 4 min
Agustin Lebron began his career as a trader and researcher at Jane Street Capital, one of the largest market-making firms in the world. He currently runs the consulting firm Essilen Research, where he is dedicated to helping clients integrate modern decision-making approaches in their business. Lees meer
We discuss how AI will change finance, why adverse selection makes trading and hiring so difficult, & what the future of crypto holds.
Watch on YouTube, or listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Buy The Laws of Trading.
Follow Agustin on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(04:18) - What happens in adverse selection?
(09:22) - Why is having domain expertise in trading not important?
(15:09) - How do you deal when you're on the other side of the adverse selection?
(21:16) - Why you should invest in training your people?
(25:37) - Is finance too big at 9% of GDP?
(31:06) - Trading is very labor intensive
(36:16) - Overlap of rationality community and trading
(48:00) - The age of startup founders
(50:43) - The role of market makers in crypto
(57:31) - Three books that you recommend
(58:47) - Life is long, not short
(1:03:01) - Short history of Lunar Society
Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Ananyo Bhattacharya - John von Neumann, Jewish Genius, and Nuclear War
11 mei 2022 · 55 min
Ananyo Bhattacharya is the author of The Man from the Future: The Visionary Life of John von Neumann. He is a science writer who has worked at the Economist and Nature. Before journalism, he was a medical researcher at the Burnham Institute in San Diego, California. He holds a degree in physics from the University of Oxford and a PhD in protein crystallography from Imperial College London. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow Ananyo on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Timestamps:
(0:00:30) - John Von Neumann - The Man From The Future
(0:02:29) - The Forgotten Father of Game Theory
(0:16:04) - The last representative of the great mathematicians
(0:19:45) - Did John Von Neumann have a Miracle year?
(0:26:31) - The fundamental theorem of John von Neumann’s game theory
(0:29:34) - The strong supporter of "Preventive War”
(0:50:51) - We can't all be superhuman
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
5 mei 2022 · 51 min
Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions. Lees meer
Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Introduction
(0:02:29) - Predicting the future
(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information
(0:06:20) - Potentials
(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets
(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing
(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process
(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading
(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market
(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators
(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets
(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets
(0:26:10) - Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience
(0:28:49) - User Result Market
(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism
(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars
(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets
(0:46:28) - Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings
(0:48:02) - Objectives of Manifold Markets
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Pradyu Prasad - Imperial Japan, the God Emperor, and Militarization in the Modern World
27 april 2022 · 1 uur 39 min
Today I talk to Pradyu Prasad (blogger and podcaster) about the book "Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan" by Herbert P. Bix. We also discuss militarization, industrial capacity, current events, and blogging. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Podcast website here.
Follow Pradyu on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Follow Pradyu's Blog: https://brettongoods.substack.com/
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Intro
(0:01:59) - Hirohito and Introduction to the Book
(0:05:39) - Meiji Restoration and Japan's Rapid Industrialization
(0:11:11) - Industrialization and Traditional Military Norms
(0:14:50) - Alternate Causes for Japanese Atrocities Richard Hanania's Public Choice Theory in Imperial Japan (0:17:03)
(0:21:34) - Hirohito's Relationship with the Military
(0:24:33) - Rant of Japanese Strategy
(0:33:10) - Modern Parallel to Russia/Ukraine
(0:38:22) - Economics of War and Western War Capacity
(0:48:14) - Elements of Effective Occupation
(0:55:53) - Ideological Fervor in WW2 Japan
(0:59:25) - Cynicism on Elites
(1:00:29) - The Legend of Godlike Hirohito
(1:06:47) - Postwar Japanese Economy
(1:13:23) - Blogging and Podcasting
(1:20:31) - Spooky
(1:38:00) - Outro
Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Razib Khan - Genomics, Intelligence, and The Church of Science
20 april 2022 · 1 uur 3 min
Razib Khan is a writer, geneticist, and blogger with an interest in history, genetics, culture, and evolutionary psychology. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Podcast website here.Follow Razib on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes
Thanks for reading The Lunar Society! Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Time Stamps
(0:00:05) Razib's Background
(0:01:34) Dysgenics of Intelligence
(0:04:23) Endogamy and Genetic traits in India
(0:08:58) Similar Examples of Endogamy
(0:14:28) Why So Many Brahmin CEOs
(0:19:55) Razib the Globe Trotter, Geography Expert
(0:25:04) Male/Female Genetic Variance
(0:30:04) Agricultural Man and Our Tiny Brains
(0:34:40) The Church of Science
(0:42:33) Professorship, a family business
(0:44:23) Long History
(0:52:42) Future of Human-Computer Interfacing
(0:56:30) Near Future of Gene Editing
(0:59:19) Meta Questions and Closing
Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Jimmy Soni - Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and the Paypal Mafia
16 april 2022 · 1 uur 8 min
Jimmy Soni is the author of The Founders: The Story of Paypal and the Entrepreneurs Who Shaped Silicon Valley. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow Jimmy on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes!
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Bell Labs vs PayPal
(0:05:12) - Scenius in Ancient Rome and America's Founding
(0:07:02) - Girard at PayPal
(0:15:17) - Thiel almost shorts the Dot com bubble
(0:19:49) - Does Zero to One contradict PayPal's story?
(0:27:57) - Hilarious Russian hacker story
(0:29:06) - Why is Thiel so good at spotting talent?
(0:34:50) - Did PayPal make talent or discover it?
(0:40:40) - Japanese mafia invests in PayPal?!
(0:44:42) - Upcoming TV show on PayPal
(0:48:11) - Musk in ancient Rome
(0:52:12) - Why didn't Musk keep pursuing finance?
(0:56:32) - Why didn't the mafia get back together?
(1:00:06) - Jimmy's writing process
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Bryan Caplan - Discrimination, Poverty, & Mental Illness
12 april 2022 · 1 uur 4 min
I interview the economist Bryan Caplan about his new book, Labor Econ Versus the World, and many other related topics. Lees meer
Bryan Caplan is a Professor of Economics at George Mason University and a New York Times Bestselling author. His most famous works include: The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education, and Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Podcast website here.
Follow Bryan on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Intro
(0:00:33) - How many workers are useless, and why is labor force participation so low?
(0:03:47) - Is getting out of poverty harder than we think?
(0:10:43) - Are elites to blame for poverty?
(0:14:56) - Is human nature to blame for poverty?
(0:19:11) - Remote work and foreign wages
(0:24:43) - The future of the education system?
(0:29:31) - Do employers care about the difficulty of a curriculum?
(0:33:13) - Why do companies and colleges discriminate against Asians?
(0:42:01) - Applying Hanania's unitary actor model to mental health
(0:50:38) - Why are multinationals so effective?
(0:53:37) - Open borders and cultural norms
(0:58:13) - Is Tyler Cowen right about automation?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Richard Hanania - Foreign Policy, Fertility, and Wokeness
24 februari 2022 · 1 uur 2 min
Richard Hanania is the President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology and the author of Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow Richard on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Read Richard's Substack: https://richardhanania.substack.com/
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Intro
(0:04:35) - Did war prevent sclerosis?
(0:06:05) - China vs America's grand strategy
(0:10:00) - Does the president have more power over foreign policy?
(0:11:30) - How to deter bad actors?
(0:15:39) - Do some countries have a coherent foreign policy?
(0:16:55) - Why does self-interest matter in foreign but not domestic policy?
(0:21:05) - Should we limit money in politics?
(0:23:47) - Should we credit expertise for nuclear detante and global prosperity?
(0:28:45) - Have international alliances made us safer?
(0:31:57) - Why does academic bueracracy work in some fields?
(0:36:26) - Did academia suck even before diversity?
(0:39:34) - How do we get expertise in social sciences?
(0:42:19) - Why are things more liberal?
(0:43:55) - Why is big tech so liberal?
(0:47:53) - Authoritarian populism vs libertarianism
(0:51:40) - Can authoritarian governments increase fertility?
(0:54:54) - Will increasing fertility be dysgenic?
(0:56:43) - Will not having kids become cool?
(0:59:22) -Advice for libertarians?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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David Deutsch - AI, America, Fun, & Bayes
31 januari 2022 · 1 uur 24 min
David Deutsch is the founder of the field of quantum computing and the author The Beginning of Infinity and The Fabric of Reality. Lees meer
Read me contra David on AI.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Read the full transcript with helpful links here.
Follow David on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future podcasts.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - Will AIs be smarter than humans?
(0:06:34) - Are intelligence differences immutable / heritable?
(0:20:13) - IQ correletation of twins seperated at birth
(0:27:12) - Do animals have bounded creativity?
(0:33:32) - How powerful can narrow AIs be?
(0:36:59) - Could you implant thoughts in VR?
(0:38:49) - Can you simulate the whole universe?
(0:41:23) - Are some interesting problems insoluble?
(0:44:59) - Does America fail Popper's Criterion?
(0:50:01) - Does finite matter mean there's no beginning of infinity?
(0:53:16) - The Great Stagnation
(0:55:34) - Changes in epistemic status is Popperianism
(0:59:29) - Open ended science vs gain of function
(1:02:54) - Contra Tyler Cowen on civilizational lifespan
(1:07:20) - Fun criterion
(1:14:16) - Does AGI through evolution require suffering?
(1:18:01) - Would David enter the Experience Machine?
(1:20:09) - (Against) Advice for young people
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Byrne Hobart - Optionality, Stagnation, and Secret Societies
5 oktober 2021 · 1 uur 12 min
Byrne Hobart writes The Diff, a newsletter about inflections in finance and technology with 24,000+ subscribers. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
The Diff newsletter: https://diff.substack.com/Follow Byrne on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes!
Thanks for reading The Lunar Society! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Byrne's one big idea: stagnation
(0:05:50) -Has regulation caused stagnation?
(0:14:00) - FDA retribution
(0:15:15) - Embryo selection
(0:17:32) - Patient longtermism
(0:21:02) - Are there secret societies?
(0:26:53) - College, optionality, and conformity
(0:34:40) - Differentiated credentiations underrated?
(0:39:15) - WIll contientiousness increase in value?
(0:44:26) - Why aren't rationalists more into finance?
(0:48:04) - Rationalists are bad at changing the world.
(0:52:20) - Why read more?
(0:57:10) - Does knowledge have increasing returns?
(1:01:30) - How to escape the middle career trap?
(1:04:48) - Advice for young people
(1:08:40) - How to learn about a subject?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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David Friedman - Dating Markets, Legal Systems, Bitcoin, and Automation
9 augustus 2021 · 1 uur 24 min
David Friedman is a famous anarcho-capitalist economist and legal scholar. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website + transcript here.
David Friedman's website: http://www.daviddfriedman.com/
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Dating market
(0:12:15) - The future of reputation
(0:27:30) - How Friedman predicted bitcoin
(0:35:35) - Prediction markets
(0:40:00) - Can regulation stop progress globally?
(0:45:50) - Lack of diversity in modern legal systems
(0:54:20) - Friedman's theory of property rights
(1:01:50) - Charles Murray's scheme to fight regulations
(1:06:25) -Property rights of the poor
(1:09:07) - Automation
(1:16:00) - Economics of medieval reenactment
(1:19:00) - Advice for futurist young people
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Sarah Fitz-Claridge - Taking Children Seriously
4 juni 2021 · 58 min
Sarah Fitz-Claridge is a writer, coach, and speaker with a fallibilist worldview. She started the journal that became Taking Children Seriously in the early 1990s after being surprised by the heated audience reactions she was getting when talking about children. She has spoken all over the world about her educational philosophy, and you can find transcripts of some of her talks on her website. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Sarah's Website: https://www.fitz-claridge.com/
Follow Sarah on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates.This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Michael Huemer - Anarchy, Capitalism, and Progress
29 mei 2021 · 1 uur 37 min
Michael Huemer is a professor of philosophy at the University of Colorado. He is the author of more than sixty academic articles in epistemology, ethics, metaethics, metaphysics, and political philosophy, as well as eight amazing books. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Podcast website here.
Buy Knowledge, Reality, and Value and The Problem of Political Authority.
Read Michael’s awesome blog and follow me on Twitter for new episodes.
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Intro
(0:01:07) - The Problem of Political Authority
(0:03:25) - Common sense ethics
(0:09:39) - Stockholm syndrome and the charisma of power
(0:18:14) - Moral progress
(0:26:55) - Growth of libertarian ideas
(0:33:37) - Does anarchy increase violence?
(0:44:37) - Transitioning to anarchy
(0:47:20) - Is Huemer attacking our society?!
(0:51:40) - Huemer's writing process
(0:53:18) - Is it okay to work for the government
(0:56:39) - Burkean argument against anarchy
(1:02:07) - The case for tyranny
(1:11:58) - Underrated/overrated
(1:25:55) - Huemer production function
(1:30:41) - Favorite books
(1:33:04) - Advice for young people
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Uncle Bob - The Long Reach of Code
28 november 2020 · 46 min
Robert Martin (aka Uncle Bob) is a programming pioneer and bestselling author or Clean Code. We discuss the prospect of automating programming, spotting and developing coding talent, occupational licensing, quotas, and the elusive sense of style. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Listen to his fascinating talk on the future of programming: https://youtu.be/ecIWPzGEbFc
Read his blog about programming: http://blog.cleancoder.com/
Buy his books on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/kindle-dbs/ent...
Thanks for reading The Lunar Society! Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps
(0:00) - Automating programming
(8:40) - Educating programmers (expertise, talent, university)
(21:45) - Spotting talent
(26:10) - Teaching kids
(29:31) - Prose and music sense in coding
(32:22) - Occupational licensing for programmers
(35:49) - Why is tech political
(39:28) - Quotas
(42:29) - Advice to 20 yr old
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Scott Aaronson - Quantum Computing, Complexity, and Creativity
21 november 2020 · 1 uur 27 min
Scott Aaronson is a Professor of Computer Science at The University of Texas at Austin, and director of its Quantum Information Center. Lees meer
He's the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet: https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/ and the book “Quantum Computing since Democritus”.
He was also my professor for a class on quantum computing.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow me on Twitter to get updates on future episodes and guests.
Timestamps
(0:00) - Intro
(0:33) - Journey through high school and college
(12:37) - Early work
(19:15) - Why quantum computing took so long
(33:30) - Contributions from outside academia
(38:18) - Busy beaver function
(53:50) - New quantum algorithms
(1:03:30) - Clusters
(1:06:23) - Complexity and economics
(1:13:26) - Creativity
(1:24:07) - Advice to young people
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Scott Young - Ultralearning
16 november 2020 · 1 uur 39 min
Scott is the author of Ultralearning and famous for the MIT Challenge, where he taught himself MIT's 4 year Computer Science curriculum in 1 year. Lees meer
I had a blast chatting with Scott Young about aggressive self-directed learning. Scott has some of the best advice out there about learning hard things. It has helped yours truly prepare to interview experts and dig into interesting subjects.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Podcast website here.
Check out Scott’s website. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Buy Scott’s book on Ultralearning: https://amzn.to/3TuPEbf
Timestamps
(00:00) - Intro
(01:00) - Einstein
(13:20) - Age
(18:00) - Transfer
(24:40) - Compounding
(34:00) - Depth vs context
(40:50) - MIT challenge
(1:00:50) - Focus
(1:10:00) - Role models
(1:20:30) - Progress studies
(1:24:25) - Early work and ambition
(1:28:18) - Advice for 20 yr old
(1:35:00) - Raising a genius baby?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Charles Murray - Human Accomplishment and the Future of Liberty
28 oktober 2020 · 1 uur 52 min
I ask Charles Murray about Human Accomplishment, By The People, and The Curmudgeon's Guide to Getting Ahead. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Read the full transcript here.
Follow Charles on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(00:00) - Intro
(01:00) - Writing Human Accomplishment
(06:30) - The Lotka curve, age, and miracle years
(10:38) - Habits of the greats (hard work)
(15:22) - Focus and explore in your 20s
(19:57) - Living in Thailand
(23:02) - Peace, wealth, and golden ages
(26:02) - East, west, and religion
(30:38) - Christianity and the Enlightenment
(34:44) - Institutional sclerosis
(37:43) - Antonine Rome, decadence, and declining accomplishment
(42:13) - Crisis in social science
(45:40) - Can secular humanism win?
(55:00) - Future of Christianity
(1:03:30) - Liberty and accomplishment
(1:06:08) - By the People
(1:11:17) - American exceptionalism
(1:14:49) - Pessimism about reform
(1:18:43) - Can libertarianism be resuscitated?
(1:25:18) - Trump's deregulation and judicial nominations
(1:28:11) - Beating the federal government
(1:32:05) - Why don't big companies have a litigation fund?
(1:34:05) - Getting around the Halo effect
(1:36:07) - What happened to the Madison fund?
(1:37:00) - Future of liberty
(1:41:00) - Public sector unions
(1:43:43) - Andrew Yang and UBI
(1:44:36) - Groundhog Day
(1:47:05) - Getting noticed as a young person
(1:50:48) - Passage from Human Accomplishment
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Alex Tabarrok - Prizes, Prices, and Public Goods
19 oktober 2020 · 1 uur 26 min
Alex Tabarrok is a professor of economics at George Mason University and with Tyler Cowen a founder of the online education platform http://MRU.org. Lees meer
I ask Alex Tabarrok about the Grand Innovation Prize, the Baumol effect, and Dominant Assurance Contracts.
Watch on YouTube, or listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow Alex on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Alex Tabarrok's and Tyler Cowen's excellent blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/
Thanks for reading The Lunar Society! Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:34) - Grand Innovation Prize
(08:45) - Prizes vs grants
(14:10) -Baumol effect
(27:50) - On Bryan Caplan's case against education
(31:35) - Scaling education online
(48:50) - Declining research productivity
(52:15) - Dominant Assurance Contracts
(58:40) - Future of governance
(1:04:05) - On Robin Hanson's Futarchy
(1:06:02) - Beating Adam Smith
(1:08:35) - Our Warfare-Welfare State
(1:19:30) - The Great Stagnation vs The Innovation Renaissance
(1:21:40) - Advice to 20 year olds
Share
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Caleb Watney - America's Innovation Engine
4 september 2020 · 55 min
Caleb Watney is the director of innovation policy at the Progressive Policy Institute. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow Caleb on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Caleb's new blog: https://www.agglomerations.tech/
Timestamps
(00:00) - Intro
(00:20) - America's innovation engine is slowing
(01:02) - Remote work/ agglomeration effects
(08:45) - Chinese vs American innovation
(16:23) - Reforming institutions
(19:00) - Tom Cotton's critique of high skilled Immigration
(22:26) - Eric Weinstein's critique of high skilled Immigration
(26:02) - Reforming H1-B
(30:30) - Immigration during recession
(32:55) - Big tech / AI
(38:20) - EU regulation
(40:07) - Biden vs Trump
(42:30) - Federal R & D
(47:20) - Climate megaprojects
(49:35) - Falling fertility rates
(52:20) - Advice to 20 year olds
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Robin Hanson - The Long View
31 augustus 2020 · 1 uur 40 min
Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He is the author of The Elephant in the Brain and The Age of Em. Lees meer
Robin's Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson
Robin's blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/
Robin's website: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/home.html
My blog: https://dwarkeshpatel.com/
My Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
00:05 The long view
15:07 Subconscious vs conscious intelligence
20:28 Meditators
26:50 Signaling, norms, and motives
36:50 Conversation
42:54 2020 election nominees
49:25 Nerds in startups and social science
54:50 Academia and Robin
58:20 Dominance explains paternalism
1:09:32 Remote work
1:21:26 Advice for 20 yr old
1:28:05 Idea futures
1:32:13 Reforming institutions
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Jason Crawford - The Roots of Progress
25 augustus 2020 · 49 min
Jason Crawford writes at The Roots of Progress about the history of technology and industry and the philosophy of progress. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Podcast website here.
Follow Jason on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Jason's website: https://jasoncrawford.org/
The Roots of Progress: https://rootsofprogress.org/
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Matjaž Leonardis - Science, Identity, and Probability
22 augustus 2020 · 35 min
Matjaž Leonardis has co-written a paper with David Deutsch about the Popper-Miller Theorem. In this episode, we talk about that as well as the dangers of the scientific identity, the nature of scientific progress, and advice for young people who want to be polymaths. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Podcast website here.
Follow Matjaž's excellent Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Tyler Cowen - The Great Reset
10 juli 2020 · 47 min
Tyler Cowen is Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University and also Director of the Mercatus Center. Lees meer
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Transcript + Podcast website here.
Follow Tyler Cowen on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00) - The Great Reset
(2:58) - Growth and the cyclical view of history
(4:00) - Time horizons, growth, and sustainability
(5:30) - Space travel
(8:11) - WMDs and end of humanity
(10:57) - Common sense morality
(12:20) - China and authoritarianism
(13:45) - Are big businesses complacent?
(17:15) - Online education vs university
(20:45) - Aesthetic decline in West Virginia
(23:20) - Advice for young people
(25:18) - Mentors
(27:15) - Identifying talent
(29:50) - Can adults change?
(31:45) - Capacity to change men vs women
(33:10 ) - Are effeminate societies better?
(35:15) - Conservatives and progress
(36:50) - Biggest mistake in history
(39:05) - Nuke in my lifetime
(40:35) - Age and learning
(42:45) - Pessimistic future
(43:50) - Optimistic future
(46:28) - Closing
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
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Bryan Caplan - Nurturing Orphaned Ideas
22 mei 2020 · 1 uur
Bryan Caplan is a Professor of Economics at George Mason University and a New York Times Bestselling author. His most famous works include: The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education, and Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration. Lees meer
I talk to Bryan about open borders, the idea trap, UBI, appeasement, China, the education system, and Bryan Caplan's next two books on poverty and housing regulation.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Follow Bryan on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com