Macro Mondays – Podcastlijstje

Each and every Sunday, former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea Bank, Andreas Steno, invites colleagues and friends of Steno Research to share their views on the world of macro and geopolitics with loads of actionable content.

We will maintain FULL independence without capital interests in having specific views and provide 100% transparency around how we trade and view the world

The podcast will be the most entertaining and yet serious podcast in the Macro Space and as you will notice our trade ideas will be “SOMETIMES MAYBE GOOD, SOMETIMES MAYBE SHIT” (Listen to understand the context)

Find out more about Steno Research with the 30% discount code “macro30” at www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe

Afleveringen

Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble

26 oktober 2026 · 28 min
Afspelen

ndreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to challenge one of the biggest narratives in markets: that the AI boom is simply another dot-com bubble waiting to burst. They break down why today's AI investment cycle may be fundamentally different from the late 1990s, and what that means for tech stocks and the broader market outlook. Lees meer

They also unpack the latest political surprise involving Brazil's Lula and the implications for emerging markets, before turning to renewed EU–China trade tensions and what another escalation could mean for global trade, European industry, and investors.

🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash.

📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=2026_uyf&utm_content=macro-mondays

Timestamps:
00:00 - Anthropic IPO Filing: What It Reveals About the AI Buildout
02:41 - AI vs Dot-Com: Why the Comparison Still Doesn’t Hold
05:54 - Why Higher Rates Are Forcing AI to Prove ROI Now
08:15 - Big Tech Earnings: Can Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft Calm Credit Markets?
09:32 - GPU Rental Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case
12:33 - Is Anthropic Running Out of Compute?
15:22 - Anthropic IPO: Could It Pull Capital Away From the Mag 7?
16:42 - Where to Position If the Fed Finally Acknowledges Tight Financial Conditions
18:33 - Has the Market Already Priced in the End of the AI Boom?
19:19 - Brazil Election Shock: Lula Wins and Markets Get Hit
22:08 - Israel Election: Why Policy Toward Iran May Not Change Much
23:50 - EU vs China: Europe Escalates the Trade War

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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally?

19 oktober 2026 · 24 min
Afspelen

Andreas Steno of Steno Research is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays, breaking down the latest inflation signals and what they mean for the market outlook. With energy prices and input costs rising, is another inflation shock on the horizon, and could Kevin Warsh be focusing on the wrong inflation measure? Andreas also examines the latest business cycle data, why he's not ready to turn bearish on equities just yet, and what renewed pressure in France's bond market could mean for European investors. Lees meer

🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash.

📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future

Timestamps:
00:00 - France Is Burning — But Is the Market Panic Overdone?
02:30 - French Bond Stress: Why Credit Markets Are Turning on France
04:23 - AI Credit Stress: Is the Data Center Buildout Finally Breaking?
05:14 - Extreme Fear, Record Hedging, and the Midterm Setup
07:30 - Why This AI Selloff Is More Fundamental Than the Last Ones
08:26 - Hot CPI and PPI — So Why Did Bond Yields Fall?
09:38 - Positioning Is Crowded: Bonds, Energy, Dollar, and AI
11:30 - Inflation Peak Ahead? Why October Could Be the Turning Point
14:35 - Are the Mag 7 Really About to Cut AI CapEx?
15:41 - Compute Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case
18:04 - DeepSeek Banned From US Government Systems: A New AI Trade War?
20:12 - Hiking Cycles, Credit Stress, and the Timing of the Next Trade
21:05 - Why Inflation and the Midterms Could Set Up a Q4 Rebound

Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #realvision

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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
How Much Longer Can This Cycle Run?

5 oktober 2026 · 31 min
Afspelen

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle the question that matters most for markets right now: are we still mid-cycle, or are the warning signs of a late-cycle economy starting to pile up? They also head to Europe, where surging French bond yields, political uncertainty, and renewed concerns over the country’s finances are putting pressure on French assets. Is the turmoil a genuine warning for investors — or exactly the kind of dislocation you should be buying? Plus, Andreas and Mikkel revisit purchasing power parity and ask how useful PPP really is when trying to figure out where currencies should trade. Lees meer

The markets are wide open right now. Crypto, AI, entire sectors repricing. You don't need a finance degree to play anymore. You just need someone to hand you the map.

That's Real Vision. The place where the best minds in macro and crypto break down what's moving, with the research, tools and community to help you make your own calls.

🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. Register before October 15 to secure your spot.

📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future

Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays October 5, 2026
00:22 - Mid-Cycle or Late-Cycle? The Big Macro Question
02:14 - GDP vs PPP: Is Russia’s Economy Really Smaller Than the UK’s?
05:15 - Why Energy and Food Self-Sufficiency Matter More in a Crisis
07:21 - Iran War Update: Why Oil Flows Are Better Than Before the War
10:56 - Can a Democratic Midterm Sweep Derail the AI Buildout?
14:32 - ISM Services Miss: Is the US Economy Starting to Slow?
17:55 - France in Turmoil: Are Markets Pricing in Too Much Political Risk?
20:39 - Marine Le Pen, French Bonds, and Why France Could Be a Buy
26:09 - Mid-Cycle vs Late-Cycle: Will Central Banks Kill the Expansion?
29:01 - Dollar Strength, Hormuz, and the April-Style Setup Returning

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch

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Is the yield curve inverted?

29 september 2026 · 27 min
Afspelen

Apologies for the late upload! Lees meer

We cover the inversion of the yield curve and what that tells us about the business cycle and the outlook for equities. We also discuss the impasse in US-Iran negotiations and the US-China summit.

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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Are Markets About to Take Off Again? | September 21, 2026

21 september 2026 · 26 min
Afspelen

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether markets are beginning to resemble the setup we saw in March. With the Fed having hiked, yields elevated, and oil moving lower, are the conditions falling into place for another leg higher? They also unpack the new U.S.–Denmark–Greenland agreement and what it means for the shifting geopolitical picture in the Arctic, before diving into the recent crypto rally to see whether it really has legs. Lees meer

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
00:22 - Crypto Is Ripping: Should Investors Rotate Out of AI?
03:05 - What’s Really Driving the Crypto Rally?
04:31 - Why AI and Crypto Could Work Together in the Agent Economy
08:23 - Why Markets Are Starting to Look Like March and April Again
11:47 - Trump-Xi Summit: Chips, China, and the Next Trade-War Test
15:20 - South Korea Exports Surge as the Semiconductor Boom Reaccelerates
18:09 - Greenland Deal: What the US, Denmark, and NATO Actually Got
22:08 - Semiconductors vs Gold vs Crypto: The Best Q4 Setups
23:43 - Iran, Hormuz, and Why We May Be Past Peak Escalation

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket

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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Is the Risk-On Trade Breaking Down? | Macro Mondays: September 14, 2026

14 september 2026 · 31 min
Afspelen

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision! Lees meer

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes
02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow?
05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs
09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout?
11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows?
15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely
17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock
20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst
22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike
24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking?
25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade
27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno

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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Is Risk-On Too Risky? | August 31, 2026

31 augustus 2026 · 29 min
Afspelen

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh’s surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case? Lees meer

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
00:23 - Kevin Warsh Turns Hawkish: Should Investors Pull Back on Risk?
02:01 - What Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Really Changed
03:31 - PCE vs CPI: Which Inflation Signal Should the Fed Trust?
06:22 - Warsh vs Bessent: The Battle Over Rates and Bond Yields
08:58 - September Rate Hike: Is the Market Overreading the Fed?
13:04 - Why One Rate Hike Probably Won’t Kill the Business Cycle
15:17 - US Strikes Larak Island: Is the Iran War Restarting?
16:46 - Strait of Hormuz, Crack Spreads, and the Next Inflation Trade
21:12 - South Korea Exports vs ISM: The AI Boom Is Still Running Hot
24:01 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Weak Payrolls May Not Stop the Fed
25:54 - ECB vs Fed: Why the Short-Dollar Trade Still Works

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #realvision

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Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Are Markets About to Rip Higher?| August 24, 2026

24 augustus 2026 · 31 min
Afspelen

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether Friday’s stock market rally marks the return of a more bullish macro setup, and how far this move could run. They break down Scott Bessent’s latest intervention in bond markets and what it could mean for yields, the U.S. dollar, and global liquidity. Plus, they dig into the intensifying Anthropic vs. OpenAI battle and ask whether markets are getting another dose of “Warsh hopium” after Friday’s price action. Lees meer

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Are We Finally Back?
00:59 - Bitcoin and Gold Start Moving Again
02:25 - Why the Debasement Trade Is Back
03:24 - What Treasury Buybacks Actually Do
04:53 - The TGA Changes the Liquidity Story
05:29 - Why Bank Liquidity Matters for Markets
07:19 - How Much Liquidity Could Treasury Add?
09:42 - Hedge Funds Become the Marginal Treasury Buyer
11:35 - Is This Sustainable for Bitcoin and Gold?
12:19 - Temporary vs. Permanent Liquidity
14:02 - How Big Could Bessent’s Buybacks Get?
16:46 - Andreas’ Weaker-Dollar Portfolio Setup
18:03 - OpenAI vs. Anthropic
24:14 - Iran, China, and the Geopolitical Spillover
28:06 - What Could Kevin Warsh Say at Jackson Hole?
29:07 - The Most Important Macro Chart Right Now
30:06 - Is the Fed About to Turn Less Hawkish?

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket #fed #bonds #treasuries #usdollar #dxy #liquidity #openai #anthropic #interestrates #trading #realvision #scottbessent #kevinwarsh #federalreserve

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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Inflation Is Cooling, So What Is the Fed Seeing? | Macro Mondays: August 17, 2026

17 augustus 2026 · 31 min
Afspelen

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back for another episode of Macro Mondays, boiling down the latest topics, from why the Fed may still be overreading inflation risks to why Donald Trump ordered a pullback on military exercises in South Korea. Plus, Andreas lays out his favorite trades for the current macro regime. Lees meer

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Goldilocks Is Back? Why Growth and Inflation Are Finally Aligning
05:02 - US Consumer Strength vs Record-Low Sentiment: What’s Really Going On
10:41 - Why the Fed Could Be Wrong-Footed by Falling Inflation
13:07 - Four Reasons US Inflation Is Cooling Faster Than Expected
18:45 - Could Goldilocks Change the Midterm Election Outlook?
19:36 - Trump, South Korea, and the Growing Risk to Asia’s AI Supply Chain
22:08 - High-Bandwidth Memory, China, and the US Export-Control Problem
24:31 - Micron, Memory Stocks, and Why the AI Trade May Still Be Early
26:34 - The Best Macro Trade Now: Own Inflation Where the Fed Can’t See It
29:31 - Why a Weaker Dollar Could Unlock the Next Leg of the Rally

#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #trump #jobs #korea

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Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Is the Economy Running Too Hot? | Macro Mondays: August 10, 2026

10 augustus 2026 · 26 min
Afspelen

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack a seemingly contradictory macro setup, with the economy running hot despite slowing jobs growth and fading inflation. They break down Andreas’ latest convictions on where we are in the business cycle, and whether Kevin Warsh and the Fed are misreading the setup. Lees meer

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Timestamps:
00:23 - CPI Preview: Is Inflation Falling Faster Than Expected?
01:11 - Why Tariff Refunds Could Keep US Inflation Low
05:28 - Oil, Hormuz, and Why the Energy Shock Looks Over
09:21 - Fed Rate Hikes: Is Kevin Warsh Misreading the Inflation Setup?
12:22 - Jobs, Growth, and the World Cup Hangover
14:33 - Is the US Business Cycle Approaching a Peak?
18:17 - South Korea Semiconductor Exports: The AI Signal to Watch
20:19 - Why Slower AI Growth Could Still Be Bullish for Chip Stocks
22:33 - Hyperscaler CapEx: When Does the AI Spending Boom Actually Slow?

#macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #businesscycle #interestrates #markets #finance

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Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
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Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram
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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

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