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Special Episode: The Fed Is Talking Taper… But When?
23 juni 2021 · 11 min
Last week, the Fed rattled markets by laying the groundwork for tapering its asset purchase program. But is this taper talk? Or just talking about talking about tapering?
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Mike Wilson: When Is a “Surprise” Not Surprising?
22 juni 2021 · 3 min
Although the Fed’s surprise hawkish turn in its latest policy decision caught markets off-guard, the monetary tightening process may actually have begun months ago.
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Special Encore: The Red Hot Capex Cycle
18 juni 2021 · 10 min
Original release on May 21st, 2021: Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path. But inflation may be a risk to watch.
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Andrew Sheets: Markets 2021 - Using Past as Prologue
17 juni 2021 · 3 min
Although investors often look to the past to assess current market conditions (such as a post-pandemic recovery or rising inflation), one year in particular may serve as an interesting guidepost.
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Michael Zezas: For Infrastructure, Go Big or Go Bipartisan?
16 juni 2021 · 4 min
Will negotiations on a U.S. infrastructure deal lead to a bipartisan bill or a Democrats-only bill? The answer matters quite a bit for fixed-income investors.
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Graham Secker: European Equities Take a Turn Toward the Micro
15 juni 2021 · 3 min
Over the past few weeks, European equity flows have been at the highest levels in three years. Could a period of consolidation be ahead?
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Mike Wilson: A View from the Peak?
15 juni 2021 · 4 min
While the outlook for growth and inflation looks strong through next year, both may disappoint lofty investor expectations—and bring consequences for some stock sectors.
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Andrew Sheets: Markets Shrug at “High” Inflation
11 juni 2021 · 4 min
This month’s U.S. consumer price inflation data showed a 5% rise versus a year ago, yet markets seemed unconcerned. A look at why markets could be looking past rising inflation readings.
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Reza Moghadam: What Happens When the Euro Goes Digital?
11 juni 2021 · 4 min
The European Central Bank may soon announce the trial launch of a digital euro. Reza Moghadam, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Advisor, digs into potential risks and innovations.
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Michael Zezas: Preparing to Disconnect
10 juni 2021 · 3 min
With tensions not abating, investors should prepare for a world where these major economies are significantly less integrated. Michael Zezas explains.
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Special Episode: What to Do When Everything is Rich
9 juni 2021 · 10 min
Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head of Fixed Income Strategy Vishy Tirupattur cover a key topic on the minds of many investors: where to invest now? Lees meer
Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMO)
Principal is returned on a monthly basis over the life of the security. Principal prepayment can significantly affect the monthly income stream and the maturity of any type of MBS, including standard MBS, CMOs and Lottery Bonds. Yields and average lives are estimated based on prepayment assumptions and are subject to change based on actual prepayment of the mortgages in the underlying pools. The level of predictability of an MBS/CMO's average life, and its market price, depends on the type of MBS/CMO class purchased and interest rate movements. In general, as interest rates fall, prepayment speeds are likely to increase, thus shortening the MBS/CMO's average life and likely causing its market price to rise. Conversely, as interest rates rise, prepayment speeds are likely to decrease, thus lengthening average life and likely causing the MBS/CMO's market price to fall. Some MBS/CMOs may have “original issue discount” (OID). OID occurs if the MBS/CMO’s original issue price is below its stated redemption price at maturity, and results in “imputed interest” that must be reported annually for tax purposes, resulting in a tax liability even though interest was not received. Investors are urged to consult their tax advisors for more information. Government agency backing applies only to the face value of the CMO and not to any premium paid.
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Mike Wilson: More Data Doesn’t Always Mean More Certainty
8 juni 2021 · 3 min
New macro data on employment and consumer prices are unlikely to settle market uncertainties about inflation and course of the recovery. Mike Wilson explains.
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Andrew Sheets: The Fed’s Fascinating Dilemma
5 juni 2021 · 4 min
The pillars that have supported extraordinary action by the Federal Reserve are now starting to shift. That means support could be withdrawn. The question is, when?
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Mid-Year Commodities Outlook: Risks Ahead?
4 juni 2021 · 9 min
Commodities prices have seen big moves over the last several months, but could a potentially stronger dollar and the mechanics of supply and demand cool the rally?
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Michael Zezas: The Simmering U.S./China Rivalry
2 juni 2021 · 3 min
Although the Biden administration has been slightly less vocal with respect to China, investors shouldn’t sleep on the possibly of renewed U.S.-China tensions.
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Shawn Kim: Inside China’s Push to Shape Tech’s Future
2 juni 2021 · 4 min
Why China’s ambitious blueprint to shape tech standards may have significant impact on the future of tech. Insight from Shawn Kim, Head of Asia Technology Research.
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2021 Mid-Year U.S. Economic Outlook: Growth Remains Strong
28 mei 2021 · 11 min
Despite some inflation and labor market risks, the outlook for the rest of the year anticipates strong growth in the U.S. economy. Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner discusses with Andrew Sheets.
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Michael Zezas: Will Inflation Take the Wind Out of Infrastructure?
26 mei 2021 · 3 min
Concern has been rising that potentially higher inflation could make Congress lose its nerve on a multi-trillion dollar "Build Back Better" plan. Here’s our analysis.
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Special Episode: Check Out the Big Changes in Food Retail
25 mei 2021 · 6 min
Where and how consumers buy their groceries may be forever changed post-pandemic. We deliver some key takeaways on the food retail industry.
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Mike Wilson: A Unique View on U.S. Equities
25 mei 2021 · 4 min
Fresh off of last week’s mid-year outlook, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson details investor reaction to some of the more out-of-consensus views.
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Mid-Year Economic Outlook: The Red Hot Capex Cycle
22 mei 2021 · 10 min
Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path. But inflation may be a risk to watch.
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Andrew Sheets: The Complications of Strong Economic Winds
21 mei 2021 · 4 min
While robust global growth is a positive for markets, it may also bring higher prices, tighter policy and higher interest rates. A look at some possible twists and turns ahead.
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Michael Zezas: What if Infrastructure Doesn’t Pass?
20 mei 2021 · 2 min
All indications suggest that Congress is serious about passing an infrastructure bill, but here’s why investors may want to consider all possible outcomes.
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Graham Secker: European Equities Mid-Year
18 mei 2021 · 4 min
Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European and UK equity strategy team, shares why Europe may be set to outperform global equity markets this year.
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Mike Wilson: Mid-Year U.S. Equities Outlook - Be Selective
17 mei 2021 · 4 min
Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why sector and style preferences—along with selective stock picking—may be the key to success for the rest of 2021.
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Andrew Sheets: Inflation - Is It Here to Stay?
14 mei 2021 · 4 min
The debate over inflation was center stage this week and although the current environment is a far cry from the 1970s, rising prices could mean complications for both companies and central banks.
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Special Episode: How Worrying Are Global Supply Chain Issues?
13 mei 2021 · 10 min
Labor shortages and inventory constraints are weighing on U.S. manufacturing and shipping. How severe could the impact be to U.S. GDP and multi-industry revenues?
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Michael Zezas: The Bumpy Road Ahead for U.S. Infrastructure
12 mei 2021 · 3 min
Differing U.S. infrastructure policy approaches highlight the ongoing difficulties of bipartisanship in Washington. Here’s one possible outcome.
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Special Encore: What Are Other Investors Thinking?
11 mei 2021 · 3 min
Original release April 16th, 2021: Keeping tabs on how other investors are trading can do more than just satisfy curiosity. It can provide a window into trends and current market debates.
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Mike Wilson: Welcome to the Mid-Cycle Transition
10 mei 2021 · 5 min
Amid pricey valuations and growing evidence of labor and supply chain issues investors may want to adjust focus as we exit the early stages of the recovery.
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Andrew Sheets: Why (and How) Jobs Numbers Matter
7 mei 2021 · 3 min
With U.S. labor market numbers coming in below expectations, Andrew Sheets assesses how jobs data feeds into market and policy maker thinking about the road to recovery.
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Special Episode: Is Herd Immunity Even Possible?
7 mei 2021 · 12 min
Amid declining rates of vaccinations in the U.S, virus mutations and a crisis in India, is herd immunity from COVID-19 still achievable? The latest insights from Biotech equity analyst, Matthew Harrison.
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Michael Zezas: Texas vs. California
5 mei 2021 · 2 min
The Supreme Court is expected to deliver a decision soon on this key case for the future of the Affordable Care Act and the 20 million Americans who have acquired coverage under it. The outcome could have significant impacts for investor too.
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Vishy Tirupattur: Is the U.S. in a Housing Bubble?
5 mei 2021 · 5 min
The red-hot U.S. housing market brings to mind some unhappy memories of the 2006 bubble, but there are some key differences this time around.
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Adam Virgadamo: For Stocks, Reopening Is All About Nuance
3 mei 2021 · 4 min
The reality of reopening is anything but cut and dry. And how the market is pricing, or failing to price, nuances should continue to be a key theme.
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Chetan Ahya: Could Centrals Banks Shake Up Digital Currencies?
30 april 2021 · 5 min
Plans to introduce digital currencies are gaining momentum among the world’s central banks. But what level of disruption will it bring to the financial system?
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Michael Zezas: On Infrastructure, Follow the Money
29 april 2021 · 3 min
Last night, President Biden laid out his vision to rebuild the existing U.S. infrastructure. Here are three takeaways and sectors to watch as negotiations unfold.
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Andrew Sheets: A Choppier, More Range-bound Summer?
28 april 2021 · 3 min
Summer months have historically seen lower, more volatile returns, but strong year-to-date gains and potentially higher inflation could intensify that trend.
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Graham Secker: 4 Reasons to Consider European Equities
27 april 2021 · 4 min
Europe's 'unloved' quality among global investors is not the only reason to feel optimistic about the potential for outperformance among European equities. Chief European Equity Analyst Graham Secker explains.
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Mike Wilson: Reopening - It’s All About the Execution
26 april 2021 · 4 min
High expectations around reopening may already be substantially priced into markets, pointing to new risks around how the reopening actually plays out.
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Special Episode: Electric Vehicles, Pt 2 – Turning the Supertanker
24 april 2021 · 10 min
Stresses on the electrical grid, climate policy, and national security are only a few of the issues we will confront as we transition to EVs.
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Special Episode: Electric Vehicles, Pt 1 – Follow the Fleet
23 april 2021 · 10 min
Price, charging infrastructure and dirty battery production are limiting the impact of EVs, but look to fleet operations to lead the way to broader adoption.
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Michael Zezas: Coal Country Support for Green Energy?
22 april 2021 · 2 min
With a sizable infrastructure bill moving through the U.S. Congress, support from coal producing states, often considered unlikely, may be a factor that ultimately ensures its passage.
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Special Episode: Earth Week Investing Themes
20 april 2021 · 10 min
Green investment is on investors' minds this Earth Week: Today, a look at key investment themes across carbon capture, plastics and agri-food developments.
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Mike Wilson: Q1 Earnings - Impressive But Not Surprising?
19 april 2021 · 4 min
Earnings season is well underway and some stocks are selling-off despite strong economic data. Is the recovery now completely discounted?
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Andrew Sheets: What Are Other Investors Thinking?
16 april 2021 · 3 min
Keeping tabs on how other investors are trading can do more than just satisfy curiosity. It can provide a window into trends and current market debates.
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Simeon Gutman: Welcome to the Petriarchy
15 april 2021 · 4 min
Why the pet care industry—which was already growing pre-pandemic—may emerge as one of the fastest growing sectors over the next decade.
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Michael Zezas: U.S. Infrastructure - Sectors to Watch
14 april 2021 · 3 min
What stock sectors could fundamentally benefit from infrastructure spending? To answer this question, it’s important to follow the money.
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Special Encore: Diverging Emerging Markets
13 april 2021 · 10 min
Original release on March 25th, 2021: Amid a generally conservative outlook for emerging markets, key differentiators are their scope for policy action, pace of vaccine rollout and equity valuations.
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Special Episode: Innovating toward Decarbonization
13 april 2021 · 11 min
How are oil & gas companies and U.S. utilities tackling the complex transition to a lower carbon future? Expect a lot of divergence in approach.