Thoughts on the Market

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1. Will U.S. Manufacturing See a 2026 Boom?

   13 januari 2026 · 10 min

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   Our U.S. Thematic Strategist Michelle Weaver and U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst Chris Snyder discuss a North America Big Debate for 2026: Whether investments in efficiency and productivity will spark a transformation of U.S. manufacturing. Lees meer

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.

   Chris Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst.

   Michelle Weaver: Today: Will 2026 be the year of U.S. Manufacturing's transformation?

   It's Tuesday, January 13th at 10am in New York.

   U.S. reshoring has been an important component of our multipolar world theme, and manufacturing is one of those topics we have always had our eyes on. We've been making some big predictions about a transformation in this sector, so it makes sense that it features prominently in the big debates we've identified for North America in 2026.

   In the last few years, there's been a steady stream of investments in automation controls and upgrades across U.S. manufacturing. And this is happening against a backdrop of shifting global supply chains and lingering policy uncertainty. Now, the big market debate is whether these investments will generate a whole wave of greenfield projects – that is brand new, multi-year construction initiatives to build facilities, factories, and infrastructure from the ground up.

   Chris, what exactly is driving this current wave of efficiency and productivity investment in U.S. manufacturing? And how long term of a trend is it?

   Chris Snyder: I think what's driving the inflection is tariffs. The view that has underpinned my U.S. reshoring call is that I believe companies have to serve the U.S. market. The U.S. accounts for 30 percent of global consumption – equal to EU and China combined. It is also the best margin region in the world. So, companies have to serve the market, and now what they're doing is they're going back and …

2. Why Markets Stay Steady Amid Venezuela Developments

   12 januari 2026 · 5 min

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   Our Chief Fixed Income Strategists Vishy Tirupattur discusses the calm market reaction to the latest developments in Venezuela and the potential implications for oil, stocks and bonds. Lees meer

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist.

   On today’s podcast, I will talk about the markets’ response to the complex political developments in Venezuela, and examine the opportunities and risks it presents to the markets.

   It is Monday, January 12th at 11 am in New York.

   Despite the far-reaching geopolitical implications of last weekend’s developments in Venezuela, the financial markets have been strikingly calm. Oil prices have barely budged, global equities have rallied, and the reaction in the safe-haven markets – U.S. Treasuries, for example – has been fairly muted.

   So what explains all of this?

   Let’s start with oil – the commodity most exposed to the situation in Venezuela. The near-term supply appears very manageable. As Morgan Stanley’s chief commodities strategist Martijn Rats notes, the market entered 2026 oversupplied, and inventories remain flush. That cushion explains why Brent prices have barely budged, and why Martijn sees prices sliding into the mid-$50s in the coming months.

   The bigger story is medium term. The prospect of reviving Venezuela’s oil industry tilts production risks higher. Despite holding over 300 billion barrels, the world’s largest reserves, [the] current output of Venezuela is just 0.8-1 million barrels per day, making it the smallest producer among the major reserve holders. More Venezuelan barrels hitting global markets could keep prices soft, even against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions. For oil, the near-term price risk is low while medium-term price risk leans bearish.

   Let’s talk about energy stocks. In line with the expectation of our equity energy analysts led by Devin McDermott, en…

3. Signals Align for a Growth Cycle

   9 januari 2026 · 4 min

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   Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets takes a look at multiple indicators that are pointing on the same direction: strong growth for markets and the economy. Lees meer

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.

   Today I'm going to talk about an unusual alignment of signs of optimism for the global cyclical backdrop and why these are important to watch.

   It's Friday, January 9th at 2pm in London.

   2026 is now well underway. Forecasting is difficult and a humbling exercise; and 2025 certainly showed that even in a good year for markets, you can have some serious twists and turns. But overall, Morgan Stanley Research still thinks the year ahead will be a positive one, with equities higher and bond yields modestly lower. It's off to an eventful start, certainly, but we think that core message remains in place.

   But instead of going back again to our forecasts through the year ahead, I wanted to focus instead on a wide variety of different assets that have long been viewed as leading indicators of the global cyclical environment.

   I think these are important, and what's notable is that they're all moving in the same direction – all indicating a stronger cyclical backdrop. While today's market certainly has some areas of speculative activity and excessive valuations, the alignment of these things suggests something more substantive may be going on.

   First, Copper prices, which tend to be volatile but economically sensitive, have been rising sharply up about 40 percent in the last year. A key index of non-traded industrial commodities for everything from Glass to Tin, which is useful because it means it's less likely to be influenced by investor activity, well, it's been up 10 percent over the last year.

   Korean equities, which tend to be highly cyclical and thus have long been viewed by investors as a proxy for global …

4. Driverless Cars Take the Fast Lane

   8 januari 2026 · 10 min

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   Our Head of U.S. Internet Research Brian Nowak and Andrew Percoco, Head of North America Autos and Shared Mobility Research, discuss why adoption of autonomous vehicles is likely to gain traction this year. Lees meer

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Brian Nowak: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Internet Research.

   Andrew Percoco: And I'm Andrew Percoco, Head of North America Autos and Shared Mobility Research.

   Brian Nowak: Today we're going to talk about why we think 2026 could be a game changer and a point of inflection for autonomous vehicles and autonomous driving.

   It's Thursday, January 8th at 10am in New York.

   So, Andrew, let's get started. Have you ridden an autonomous car before?

   Andrew Percoco: Yeah, absolutely. Took a few in L.A., took one in San Francisco not too long ago. Pretty seamless and interesting experience to say the least.

   Brian Nowak: Any accidents or awkward left turns? Or did you feel pretty comfortable the whole time?

   Andrew Percoco: No, I felt pretty comfortable the whole time. No edge cases, no issues. So, all five star reviews for me.

   Brian Nowak: Andrew, we think your answer is going to be a lot more common as we go throughout 2026. As autonomous availability scales throughout more and more cities. Things are changing quickly. And we kind of look at our model on a city-by-city basis. We think that overall availability for autonomous driving in the U.S. is going to go from about 15 percent of the urban population at the end of 2025 to over 30 percent of the urban population by year end 2026.

   Andrew Percoco: Yeah, totally agree. Brian, I'm just curious. Like maybe layout for us, you know, what you're expecting for 2026 in more detail in terms of city rollouts, players involved and what we should be watching for throughout the next, you know, nine to 12 months.

   Brian Nowak: We have multiple new cities across the United States where we expect Waymo, Tesla, Zoox,…

5. A Revolution in Credit Markets

   7 januari 2026 · 12 min

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   Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur is joined by Dan Toscano, the firm’s Chairman of Markets in Private Equity, unpack how credit markets are changing—and what the AI buildup means for the road ahead. Lees meer

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.

   Today is a special edition of our podcast. We are joined by Dan Toscano, Chairman of Markets in Private Equity at Morgan Stanley, and a seasoned practitioner of credit markets over many, many credit cycles.

   We will get his thoughts on the ongoing evolution and revolution in credit markets

   It's Wednesday, January 7th at 10am in New York.

   Dan, welcome.

   Dan Toscano: Glad to be here.

   Vishy Tirupattur: So, to get our – the listeners familiar with your journey, can you talk a little bit about your experience in the credit markets, and how you got to where we are today?

   Dan Toscano: Yeah, sure. So, I've been doing this a long time. You used the nice word seasoned. My kids would refer to it as old. But I started in this journey in 1988. And to make a long story short, my first job on Wall Street was buying junk bonds in the infancy of the junk bond market, when most of what we were financing were LBOs. So, if you're familiar with Barbarians at the Gate, one of the first bonds we bought were RJR Nabisco reset notes. And I've been doing this ever since, so over almost four decades now.

   Vishy Tirupattur: So, the junk bond market evolved into high yield market, syndicated loan market, CLO market, financial crisis. So, talk to us about your experiences during this transition.

   Dan Toscano: Yeah. I mean, one of the things these markets do is they finance evolution in industries. So, when I think back to the early days of financing leveraged buyouts, they were called bootstrap deals. The first deal I did as an intermediary on Wall Street as opposed to as an investor, was a …

6. How Venezuela Events Could Affect Markets and Policy

   6 januari 2026 · 6 min

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   Our Deputy Director of Global Research Michael Zezas and our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore discuss the implications of the U.S action in Venezuela for global markets, foreign and domestic policy. Lees meer

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley.

   Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research.

   Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the latest events in Venezuela and its implications for global markets.

   It's Tuesday, January 6th at 10am in New York.

   So, Ariana, before we get into it: Long time listeners might have noticed in our intro, a changeup in our titles. Ariana, you're stepping in to lead day-to-day public policy research.

   Ariana Salvatore: That's right. And Mike, you're taking on more of a leadership role across the research department globally.

   Michael Zezas: Right, which is great news for both of us. And because the interaction between public policy choices and financial markets is as critical as ever, and because collaboration is so important to how we do investment research at Morgan Stanley – tapping into expertise and insight wherever we can find it – you’re still going to hear from one of – and sometimes both of us – here on Thoughts on the Market on a weekly basis.

   Ariana Salvatore: And this week is a great example of this dynamic as we start the New Year with investors trying to decide what, if anything, the recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela means for the outlook for markets.

   Michael Zezas: Right. So, to that point, the New Year's barely begun, but it's already brought a dramatic geopolitical situation: The U.S. capture and arrest of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro – an event that can have far reaching implications for oil markets, energy, equities, sovereign credit, and politics.

   Ariana, thinking from the perspective of the investor, what's catching yo…

7. The Bullish Signals That Investors Overlook

   5 januari 2026 · 5 min

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   Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses key catalysts that investors may be missing, but that are likely to boost U.S. equities in 2026. Lees meer

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.

   Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing the converging market forces bolstering our bullish outlook for 2026.

   It's Monday, January 5th at 11:30am in New York.

   So, let’s get after it.

   The New Year is usually a time to look forward. But today, I want to take a step back and talk about what the market is missing. A series of bullish catalysts are lining up at the same time, and the market is still underestimating their collective impact.

   There’s been a lot of focus on individual positives—solid earnings growth, further Fed easing—but in our view, the real story is how these forces are reinforcing one another. Deregulation, positive operating leverage, accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly supportive fiscal policy are all working in the same direction. And as we head into mid-term elections later this year, these policy levers are likely to stay supportive.

   Importantly, this isn’t a market that’s already priced for the outcomes I envision.

   Positioning in cyclical trades remains relatively light, and sentiment in economically sensitive areas is far from exuberant. That combination—of improving fundamentals with cautious positioning—is exactly what tends to characterize the early stages of a recovery.

   I continue to believe these tailwinds are most underappreciated in cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Financials, Industrials, and small- and mid-cap stocks. Many of the indicators we track are only just beginning to turn higher. This doesn’t look late-cycle to me—it looks early in what I have deemed to be a rolling recovery.

   One reason investors have been hesitant is the sluggishness of traditional business-cycle…

8. Bigger Tax Refunds Likely to Power the Economy

   2 januari 2026 · 4 min

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   Our U.S. Economist Heather Berger discusses how larger tax refunds in 2026 could boost income and help support consumer balance sheets throughout the year. Lees meer

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Welcome to Thoughts on the Market and Happy New Year! I’m Heather Berger, from Morgan Stanley’s US Economics Team. On today’s episode – why U.S. consumers can expect higher tax refunds, and what that means for the overall economy. It’s Friday, January 2nd, at 10am in New York.

   As we kick off 2026, it’s not just a fresh start. It’s also the time when tax refund season is right around the corner. For many of us, those refunds aren’t just numbers on a page; they shape the way we budget for many everyday expenses. The timing and size of our refunds this year could make a real difference in how much we’re able to save, spend, or get ahead on bills.

   In the wake of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, this year’s tax refund season is shaping up to be bigger than usual. The new fiscal bill packed in a variety of tax cuts for consumers. It also included spending cuts to programs such as SNAP benefits and Medicaid, but most of those cuts don’t pick up until later this decade. Altogether, this means that we’ll likely see personal incomes and spending power get a boost in 2026.

   Many of the new deductions and tax credits for consumers in the bill were made retroactive to the 2025 fiscal year. These include deductions for tips and overtime, a higher child tax credit, an increased senior deduction, and a higher cap on state and local tax deductions, among others. The retroactive portion of these measures should be reflected in tax refunds early this year. Overall, we’re expecting these changes to increase refunds by 15 to 20 percent on average. And different groups will benefit from different parts of the bill. For example, the higher state and local tax cap is likely to help high-income consumers the most, while deductions for tips and overtime will be most valua…

9. Special Encore: What’s Driving U.S. Growth in 2026

   31 december 2025 · 7 min

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   Original Release Date: November 25, 2025 Lees meer

   Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.

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   ----- Transcript -----

   Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist.

   Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.

   It’s Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.

   If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.

   Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won’t hit the Fed’s 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn’t over, but the worst is behind us.

   So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.

   After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to mo…

10. Special Encore: Investors’ Top Questions for 2026

    30 december 2025 · 11 min

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    Original Release Date: December 3, 2025 Lees meer

    Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.

    Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.

    Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.

    It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York.

    So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market.

    Is that fair?

    Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.

    Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question?

    Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.

    But the way I approach it is like t…

11. Special Encore: Who’s Disrupting — and Funding — the AI Boom

    29 december 2025 · 15 min

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    Original Release Date: November 13, 2025 Lees meer

    Live from Morgan Stanley’s European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product.

    Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology.

    We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments.

    It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona.

    After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme.

    Adam Wood: It’s fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges?

    Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum.

    Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that wh…

12. Special Encore: 2026 U.S. Outlook: The Bull Market’s Underappreciated Narrative

    26 december 2025 · 6 min

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    Original Release Date: November 19, 2025 Lees meer

    Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.

    Today I’ll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week.

    It’s Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York.

    So, let’s get after it.

    2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year.

    Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation.

    We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink’ the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year.

    The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016.

    Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we…

13. Special Encore: 2026 Global Outlook: Slower Growth and Inflation

    24 december 2025 · 11 min

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    Original Release Date: November 17, 2025 Lees meer

    In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.

    Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.

    Serena Tang: Today, we'll focus on [the] all-important macroeconomic backdrop.

    Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York.

    So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead?

    Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go.

    Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year.

    China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite goi…

14. Will the Data Center Boom Impact Your Wallet?

    23 december 2025 · 11 min

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    Our Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver and Power, Utilities, and Clean Tech Analyst David Arcaro discuss how investments in AI data centers are affecting electricity bills for U.S. consumers. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.

    David Arcaro: And I'm Dave Arcaro, U.S. Power, Utilities, and Clean Tech Analyst.

    Michelle Weaver: Today, a hot topic. Are data centers’ raising your electricity bills?

    It's Tuesday, December 23rd at 10am in New York.

    Most of us have probably noticed our electricity bills have been creeping up. And it's putting pressure on U.S. consumers, especially with higher prices and paychecks not keeping pace. More and more people are pointing to data centers as the reason behind these rising costs, but the story isn't that simple.

    Regional differences, shifting policies and local utility responses are all at play here. Dave, there's no doubt that data centers are becoming a much bigger part of the story when it comes to U.S. electricity demand. For listeners who might not follow these numbers every day, could you break down how data centers' share of overall electricity use is expected to grow over the next 10 years? And what does that mean for the grid and for the average consumer?

    David Arcaro: Definitely they're becoming much bigger, much more important and more impactful across the industry in a big way. Data centers were 6 percent of total electricity consumption in the U.S. last year. We're actually forecasting that to triple to 18 percent by 2030, and then hit 20 percent in the early 2030s. So very strong growth, and increasing proportion of the overall utility, electricity use.

    In aggregate, this is reflecting about 150 gigawatts of new data centers by 2030. Just a very large amount. And this is going to cause a major strain on the electric grid and is going to require s…

15. Rebalancing Portfolios as Risk Premiums Drop

    22 december 2025 · 5 min

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    Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses how current market conditions are challenging traditional investment strategies and what that means for asset allocation. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.

    Today – does the 60/40 portfolio still make sense, and what can investors expect from long-term market returns?

    It’s Monday, December 22nd at 10am in New York.

    Global equities have rallied by more than 35 percent from lows made in April. And U.S. high grade fixed income has seen the last 12 months’ returns reach 5 percent, above the averages over the last 10 years. This raises important questions about future returns and how investors might want to adapt their portfolios.

    Now, our work shows that long-run expected returns for equities are lower than in previous decades, while fixed income – think government bonds and corporate bonds – still offers relatively elevated returns, thanks to higher yields.

    Let’s put some numbers to it. Over the next decade, we project global equities to deliver an annualized return of nearly 7 percent, with the S&P 500 just behind at 6.8 percent. European and Japanese equities stand out, potentially returning about 8 percent. Emerging markets, however, lag at just about 4 percent. On the bond side, we think U.S. Treasuries with a 10-year maturity will return nearly 5 percent per year, German Bunds nearly 4 [percent], and Japanese government bonds nearly 2 [percent]. They may sound low, but it’s all above their long-run averages.

    But here’s where it gets interesting. The extra return you get for taking on risk – what we call the risk premium – has compressed across the board. In the U.S., the equity risk premium is just 2 percent. And for emerging markets, it’s actually negative at around -1 percent. In very plain terms, investors aren’t being paid as much for taking on risk as they used to be.

    N…

16. How Will Credit Markets Fare in 2026?

    19 december 2025 · 8 min

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    To conclude their two-part discussion, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa Shalett discuss the outlook for inflation and monetary policy, with implications for investment-grade credit. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.

    Lisa Shalett: And I am Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

    Andrew Sheets: Yesterday we focused on the topic of a higher for longer inflation regime, and I was asking the questions. Today, Lisa will grill me on my views for the next year.

    It's Friday, December 19th at 4pm in London.

    Lisa Shalett: And it's 11am in New York.

    All right, Andrew, I'm happy to turn tables on you now. I'm very interested in your thoughts about the past year – 2025 – and looking towards 2026. In 2026, Morgan Stanley Research seems to expect a resilient global growth backdrop, with inflation moderating and central banks easing policy gradually. What do you think are the main drivers behind this more constructive inflation outlook, especially taking into account the market's prevailing concerns about persistent price pressures.

    Andrew Sheets: There are a couple of factors that we think are going to be near term helps for inflation, although I don't think they totally rule out what you're talking about over that longer term period.

    So first, we, at Morgan Stanley, are very cautious, very negative on oil prices. We think that there's going to be more supply of oil over the next year than demand for it. And so lower oil prices should help bring inflation down. There's also some measures of just how the inflation indices measure shelter and housing. And so, while we think, kind of, looking further ahead, there are some real shortages emerging in things like the rental markets – where you just…

17. How to Navigate a High Inflation Regime

    18 december 2025 · 12 min

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    Our Head of Corporate Research Andrew Sheets and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa Shalett unpack what’s fueling persistent U.S. inflation and how investors could adjust their portfolios to this new landscape. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.

    Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

    Andrew Sheets: Today, is inflation really transitory or are we entering a new era where higher prices are the norm?

    Andrew Sheets: It's Thursday, December 18th at 4pm in London.

    Lisa Shalett: And it's 11am in New York.

    Andrew Sheets: Lisa, it's great to talk to you again. And, you know, we're having this conversation in the aftermath of, kind of, an unusual dynamic in markets when it comes to inflation. Because inflation is still hovering around 3 percent. That's well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. And yet the Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates again. Fiscal policy remains very stimulative, and I think there's this real question around whether inflation will moderate? Or whether we're going to see inflation be higher for longer. And you know, you are out with a new report touching on some of the issues behind this and why this might be a structural shift higher in inflation.

    So, we'd love to get your thoughts on that, and we'll drill down into the various drivers as this conversation goes on.

    Lisa Shalett: Thanks Andrew. And look, I think as we take a step back, and the reason we're calling this a regime change is because we see factors for inflation coming from both the demand side and the supply side. For example, on the demand side, the role of the infrastructure boom, the GenAI infrastructure boom, has become global. It has caused material appreciation of many commodities in 2025. We're seeing it obviously …

18. U.S. Policy Breaks Past Peak Uncertainty

    17 december 2025 · 11 min

    Afspelen
    Our Public Policy Strategists Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore break down key moves from the White House, U.S. Congress and Supreme Court that could influence markets 2026. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.

    Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, U.S. Public Policy Strategist.

    Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about the outlook for U.S. public policy and its interaction with markets into 2026.

    It's Wednesday, December 17th at 10:30am in New York.

    So, Ariana, we published our year ahead outlook last month. And since then, you've been out there talking to clients about U.S. public policy, its interaction with markets, and how that plays into 2026. What sorts of topics are on investors' minds around this theme?

    Ariana Salvatore: So, the first thing I'd say is clients are definitely interested in our more bullish outlook, in particular for the U.S. equity market. And normally we would start these conversations by talking through the policy variables, right? Immigration, deregulation, fiscal, and trade policy. But I think now we're actually post peak uncertainty for those variables, and we're talking through how the policy choices that have been made interact with the outlook.

    So, in particular for the equity market, we do think that some of the upside actually is pretty isolated from the fact that we're post peak uncertainty on tariffs, for example. Consumer discretionary – the double upgrade that our strategists made in the outlook has very little to do with the policy backdrop, and more to do with fundamentals, and things like AI and the dollar tailwind and all of all those factors.

    So, I think that that's a key difference. I would say it's more about the implementation of these policy decisions rather than which direction is the policy going to go in.

    Michael Zezas: Picking up on that …

19. Where Investors Agree—or Don’t—With Our 2026 Outlook

    16 december 2025 · 5 min

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    Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur responds to some of the feedback from clients on Morgan Stanley’s 2026 global outlooks. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist.

    Today, I consider the pushback we've received on our 2026 outlooks – distilling the themes that drew the most debate and our responses to the debates.

    It’s Tuesday, Dec 16th at 3:30pm in New York.

    It's been a few weeks [since] we published our 2026 outlooks for the global economy and markets. We’ve had lots of wide-ranging conversations, much dialogue and debate with our clients across the globe on the key themes that we laid out in our outlook. Feedback has ranged from strong alignment to pointed disagreement, with many nuanced views in between. We welcome this dialogue, especially the pushback, as it forces us to re-examine our assumptions and refine our thinking.

    Our constructive stance on AI and data center-related CapEx, along with the pivotal role we see for the credit market channels, drew notable scrutiny. Our 2026 CapEx projections was anchored by a strong conviction – that demand for compute will far outstrip the supply over the next several years. We remain confident that credit markets across unsecured, structured, and securitized instruments in both public and private domains will be central to the financing of the next wave of AI-driven investments. The crucial point here is that we think this spending will be relatively insensitive to the macro conditions, i.e., the level of interest rates and economic growth. Regarding the level of AI investment, we received a bit of pushback on our economics forecast: Why don’t we forecast even more growth from AI CapEx? From our perspective, that is going to be a multi-year process, so the growth implications also extend over time.

    Our U.S. credit strategists’ forecast for IG bond suppl…

20. Why Market Stability Matters to the Fed

    15 december 2025 · 5 min

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    Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the significance of the Fed’s decision to resume buying $40 billion of Treasury bills monthly. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.

    Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing the Fed’s decision last week and what it means for stocks.

    It's Monday, December 15th at 11:30am in New York.

    So, let’s get after it.

    Last week's Fed meeting provided incremental support for our positive 2026 outlook on equities. The Fed delivered on its expected hawkish rate cut but also indicated it would do more if the labor market continues to soften.

    More important than the rate cut was the Fed's decision to restart asset purchases. More specifically, the Fed intends to immediately begin buying $40 billion of T-Bills per month to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets. Based on our conversations with investors prior to the announcement, this amount and timing of bill buying exceeded both consensus, and my own expectations. It also confirms a key insight I have been discussing for months and highlighted in our Year Ahead Outlook.

    First, the Fed is not independent of markets, and market stability often plays a dominant role in Fed policy beyond the stated dual mandate of full employment and price stability.

    Second, given the size of the debt and deficit, the Fed has an additional responsibility to assist Treasury in funding the government, and will likely continue to work more closely with Treasury in this regard.

    Finally, the decision to intervene in funding markets sooner and more aggressively than expected may not be ‘Quantitative Easing’ as defined by the Fed. However, it is a form of debt monetization that directly helps to reduce the crowding out from the still growing Treasury issuance, especially as Treasury issues more Bills over Bonds.

    At the Fed's October meeting, it in…

21. Is the Credit Cycle Overheating?

    12 december 2025 · 5 min

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    Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why 2026 might bring a credit cycle that burns hotter before it burns out. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.

    Today I'm going to talk about our outlook for global credit markets in 2026 and why we think the credit cycle burns hotter before it burns out.

    It's Friday, December 12th at 2pm in London.

    Surely it can't go on like this. That phrase is probably coming up a lot as global credit investors sit down and plan for 2026. Credit spreads are sitting at 25 year plus tights in the U.S. and Asia. Issuance in corporate activity are increasingly aggressive. Corporate CapEx is surging. Signs of pressure are clear in the lowest rated parts of the market. And credit investors are trained to worry. Aren't all of these and more signs that a credit cycle is starting to crack under its own weight?

    Not quite yet, according to our views here at Morgan Stanley. Instead, we think that 2026 brings a credit cycle that burns hotter before it burns out. The reason is partly due to an unusually stimulative backdrop. Central banks are cutting interest rates. Governments are spending more money, and regulatory policy is easing. All of that, alongside maybe the largest investment cycle in a generation around artificial intelligence, should spur more risk taking from a corporate sector that has the capacity to do so.

    In turn, we think the playbook for credit is going to look a lot like 2005 or 1997-1998. Both periods saw levels of capital expenditure, merger activity, interest rates, and an unemployment rate that are pretty similar to what Morgan Stanley expects next year. And so, looking ahead to 2026, these two periods offer two competing ways to view the year ahead.

    2025 might be more similar to a period where the low-end consumer really is starting to struggle, but that…

22. Fed’s Next Steps and Markets’ Reactions

    11 december 2025 · 12 min

    Afspelen
    Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the Fed’s path as inflation remains above its target and the labor market continues cooling. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.

    Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.

    Matthew Hornbach: Yesterday, the FOMC meeting delivered another quarter percentage point rate cut. Today we're here to discuss what happens next.

    It's Thursday, December 11th at 8:30 AM in New York.

    So, Mike, once again, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. That outcome was not a surprise, and the markets reacted positively. But there were some surprises. A bit of a divided FOMC, if you will. How did things play out during the meeting and what are some important takeaways to keep in mind?

    Michael Gapen: Yeah, well certainly Matt, it is a divided committee. I think that's clear.

    I think one key takeaway for me is the idea that the Fed is done with risk management rate cuts, and now we're back to data dependent. So, what does that mean? I mean, a risk management rate cut isn't necessarily about the data you have in hand and the data you see; it's your view about the distribution of risks around that.

    So, in some ways, you're not data dependent when you're making those cuts. Now, I think the challenge at this press conference for Powell was to say, ‘Well, now things are different.’ And it was a nuance in the sense that cuts from here, if and when they come, will be data dependent.

    But I think at the same time he did not want to communicate that the bar for those rate cuts were exceptionally high.

    But I think he threaded the needle quite well in transitioning from risk management cuts, which aren't data dependent to an outlook, which is now more data dependent. And I thought he did that artfully well. So, for me, that's the big…

23. Asia’s Economy and Markets in 2026

    10 december 2025 · 9 min

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    Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya and Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang unpack Asia’s broadening economic recovery and focus on China’s path to market stability in 2026. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Laura Wang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.

    Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.

    Laura Wang: Today – our 2026 macro outlook for Asia with a particular focus on China's equity market.

    It's Wednesday, December 10th at 10am in Hong Kong.

    Chetan, as 2025 draws to a close; and if we try to remember what we were thinking about this time last year, I think, probably a lot of the market participants were expecting headwinds going into 2025 on the exports and trade front. But turns out that Asia's export growth is tracking at 8 percent this year so far. What's your explanation for this surprise?

    Chetan Ahya: Well, yes, Laura, you know, we were all concerned that there will potentially be tariffs, especially on China. And therefore, we were concerned that [the] regions’ exports may be affected negatively. However, what has happened is that tech exports have driven the strength in the overall exports for the region. And that is all because of the story on AI and tech development that we have all been watching.

    But the good news is that non-tech exports will recover in 2026. In fact, that's the key call we are making – that from early next year, you will see that improvement in the U.S. domestic demand that helps Asia's exports. And at the same time, we are expecting that bulk of this tariff-related uncertainty would be behind us. And so those are the two factors we think will support this recovery in non-tech exports in 2026.

    Laura Wang: That's great. How significant is the shift in exports from tech to non-tech?

    Chetan Ahya: Well, we think that's very important for [the] regions’ economic outlook. Because when you think about the tech export…

24. The Outlook for European Stocks in 2026

    9 december 2025 · 11 min

    Afspelen
    Our Head of Research Product in Europe Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock break down the key drivers, risks, and sector shifts shaping European equities in 2026. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Product in Europe.

    Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist.

    Paul Walsh: And today – our views on what 2026 holds for the European stock market.

    It's Tuesday, December 9th at 10am in London.

    As we look ahead to 2026, there's a lot going on in Europe stock markets. From shifting economic wins to new policies coming out of Brussels and Washington, the investment landscape is evolving quite rapidly. Interest rates, profit forecasts, and global market connections are all in play.

    And Marina, the first question I wanted to ask you really relates to the year 2025. Why don't you synthesize your, kind of, review of the year that we've just had?

    Marina Zavolock: Yeah, I'll keep it brief so we can focus ahead. But the year 2025, I would say is a year of two halves. So, we began the year with a lot of, kind of, under performance at the end of 2024 after U.S. elections, for Europe and a decline in the euro. The start of 2025 saw really strong performance for Europe, which surprised a lot of investors. And we had kind of catalyst after catalyst, for that upside, which was Germany’s ‘whatever it takes’ fiscal moment happened early this year, in the first quarter.

    We had a lot of headlines and kind of anticipation on Russia-Ukraine and discussions, negotiations around peace, which led to various themes emerging within the European equities market as well, which drove upside. And then alongside that, heading into Liberation Day, in the months, kind of, preceding that as investors were worried about tariffs, there was a lot of interest in diversifying out of U.S. equities. And Europe was one of…

25. Stocks in 2026: What’s Next for Retail Investors

    8 december 2025 · 14 min

    Afspelen
    Mike Wilson, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, and Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discuss the outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026 and the most significant themes for retail investors. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.

    Daniel Skelly: And I'm Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

    Mike Wilson: Today we're going to have a conversation about our views on the U.S. stock market in 2026, and what matters most to retail investors in particular.

    It's Monday, December 8th at 9am in New York.

    So, let's get after it.

    Dan, it's great to see you. We always talk about the markets together. I think this is a great opportunity for us to share those thoughts with listeners.

    Our view coming into this year is still pretty bullish for 2026. We've been bullish on [20]25 as you have, probably for, you know, similar – maybe some slightly different reasons. I think one of our differentiating views is that we do think inflation is still a major risk for individual investors. And institutional investors, quite frankly, which is why stocks have done so much better. A concept, I think you're well aware of.

    And I think, you know, the risk for retail is that there's going to be; it's going to be volatile. So, point-to-point, we're still bullish as you are. How are you thinking about managing that point-to-point path? And how are you structuring your portfolio as we go into 2026 with a bullish outlook – but understanding that it's not always going to be smooth.

    Daniel Skelly: So, like you said, we've also shared this view that next year's going to be positive, albeit there's going to be more volatility. And when I think about the two main risks that retail investors are facing today, one of them is definitely inflation.

    We're seeing that i…

26. AI Rewrites the Retail Playbook

    6 december 2025 · 14 min

    Afspelen
    Live from the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, our analysts discuss how AI is reshaping the future of shopping in the U.S. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. We're coming to you live from Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City, where we have more than 120 leading companies in attendance.

    Today's episode is the second part of our live discussion of the U.S. consumer and how AI is changing consumer companies. With me on stage, we have Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics team, Simeon Guttman, our U.S. Hardlines, Broad Lines, and Food Retail Analyst, and Megan Clap, U.S. Food Producers and Leisure Analyst.

    It's Friday, December 5th at 10am in New York.

    So, Simeon, I want to start with you. You recently put out a piece assessing the AI race. Can you take us through how you're assessing current AI implementation? And can you give us some real-world examples of what it looks like when a company significantly integrates AI into their business?

    Simeon Gutman: Sure. So, the Consumer Discretionary and Staples teams went to each of their covered companies, and we started searching for what those companies have disclosed and communicated regarding their AI. In some cases, we used AI to do this search. But we created a search and created this universe of factors and different ways AI is being implemented. We didn't have a framework until we had the entire universe of all of these AI use cases.

    Once we did, then we were able to compartmentalize them. And the different groups; we came up with six groups that we were able to cluster. First, personalization and refined search; second, customer acquisition; third product innovation; fourth, labor productivity; fifth, supply chain and logistics. And lastly, inventory management. And using that framework, we were able to rank companies on a 1 to 10 scale.

    Across – that was the impleme…

27. Trends and Challenges for Consumers in 2026

    4 december 2025 · 11 min

    Afspelen
    Live from the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference in New York, our analysts discuss the latest macro trends and pressures impacting the U.S. consumer. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. We're coming to you live from Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City, where we have more than 120 leading companies in attendance.

    Today's episode is the first in a two-part special focused on the consumer where we'll focus on the K economy and the health of the U.S. Consumer. Tomorrow for the next episode, we'll turn our attention to AI.

    My colleagues and I are eager to dig into this discussion. With me on stage, we have Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics team, Simeon Guttman, our U.S. Hardlines, Broad Lines, and Food Retail Analyst, and Megan Clap, U.S. Food Producers and Leisure Analyst.

    It's Thursday, December 4th at 10:00 AM in New York.

    So, to start, I want to go through the health of the consumer. That's of course been a theme that's been on display at the conference today. And 2025 has really been a year of mixed signals. But overall spending has held up while inflation has weighed on confidence, especially among lower- and middle-income households.

    Arunima, I want to start with you on the macro front as we head into year end. How would you describe the overall state of the consumer? What are you expecting in terms of real wage growth and spending?

    Arunima Sinha: If we'll just look at the rearview mirror in terms of Q1 through Q3, this year spending growth on a real basis has been holding up. So, in the first half of this year, about 1.5 percent on average. For the third quarter, given the data that we do now have in hand, we're tracking about 3 percent, quarter-on-quarter, on a real basis. But I think it is important to emphasize that this is already a step down than the numbers that we were seeing last year. So, in 2024 on t…

28. Investors’ Top Questions for 2026

    3 december 2025 · 10 min

    Afspelen
    Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.

    Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.

    Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.

    It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York.

    So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market.

    Is that fair?

    Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.

    Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question?

    Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.

    But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences …

29. AI Sparks New Economics for Electricity

    2 december 2025 · 5 min

    Afspelen
    Our South Asia Energy Analyst Mayank Maheshwari discusses how the unprecedented demand to power AI is set to transform the power industry for years to come. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Mayank Maheshwari: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Mayank Maheshwari, Morgan Stanley’s South Asia Energy Analyst.

    Today: how AI and electrification are rewriting the rules of global power.

    It’s Tuesday, December 2nd at 9 pm in Singapore.

    If you’ve noticed your electricity bills are climbing and headlines are buzzing with talk of AI, you’re not alone. The way we use – and need – power is changing fast, and it’s impacting everyone from homeowners to major tech companies.

    Global power consumption is surging at the fastest pace in over a decade. Annual demand is set to rise by more than one trillion kilowatt-hours every year through 2030, with AI-driven data centers contributing nearly a fifth of that growth. We estimate about [U.S.]$3 trillion investments in datacenters by 2028, with power consumption growth of nearly about 126GW in these three years till [20]28. This is almost as large as Canada’s total [annual] power consumption.

    And in this context, power prices are set to further rise. In 2024 – the latest full-year data available – global power sector investments hit a new high of $1.5 trillion, and consumer power prices have risen by about 15 percent. By 2030, U.S. power markets will account for half of the global data center power consumption. And Asia will also see about a 15 percent spillover of that U.S. hyperscaler demand, which will be also part of why some of the power markets in Asia will get a lot tighter.

    As power consumption rises, the difference between the price at which electricity is sold and the cost to generate it – also known as power spreads – are likely to rise by nearly 15 percent. This expansion in profit margins could lead to higher earnings forecasts for power generation companies and create $350 billion in…

30. Home Affordability Still Under Pressure

    1 december 2025 · 9 min

    Afspelen
    Our Co-Heads of Securitized Product Research Jay Bacow and James Egan discuss the outlook for mortgage rates and the U.S. housing market in 2026. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Jay Bacow: Jim, why did the cranberry turn red?

    James Egan: Please enlighten me.

    Jay Bacow: Because it saw the turkey dressing.

    Jay Bacow: I hope everybody had a good Thanksgiving. Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.

    James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.

    Today we're here to talk about our views from mortgage rates in 2026 and how that flows through to our U.S. housing outlook.

    It's Monday, December 1st at 11:30am in New York.

    Now, Jay, as we all get over our turkey induced naps over the weekend, how are we thinking about mortgage rates evolving in 2026?

    Jay Bacow: Well, as you and I discussed previously on this podcast, the Fed cutting rates in and of itself doesn't actually cause the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to come down. However, our rate strategists’ forecast for lower rates in the front end should be helpful to where the primary rate ends up this year. And we would also expect some compression between primary mortgage rates and Treasury rates given our bullish outlook for the mortgage asset class. So, our expectation is that the 30-year fixed rate ends 2026 around 5.75 percent.

    James Egan: Alright, if we get to 5.75, maybe a little bit lower than that in the middle of next year, that's enough to send affordability into a healthier place. But that's a relative term. Affordability is still going to be under pressure, but it will have improved. And it will have improved at a pretty healthy amount from where we were in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was multi-decade levels of challenged.

    Jay Bacow: All right, Jim, so clearly the mortgage rate coming down does make homes more affordable, but is it enough to c…

31. Special Encore: How Japan’s Stablecoin Could Reshape Global Finance

    28 november 2025 · 5 min

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    Original Release Date: October 31, 2025 Lees meer

    Our Japan Financials Analyst Mia Nagasaka discusses how the country’s new stablecoin regulations and digital payments are set to transform the flow of money not only locally, but globally.

    Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.

    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Mia Nagasaka, Head of Japan Financials Research at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.

    Today – Japan’s stablecoin revolution and why it matters to global investors.

    It’s Friday, October 31st, at 4pm in Tokyo.

    Japan may be late to the crypto market. But its first yen-denominated stablecoin is just around the corner. And it has the potential to quietly reshape how digital money moves across the country and globally.

    You may have heard of digital money like Bitcoin. It’s significantly more volatile than traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds. Stablecoins are different. They are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets such as the yen or U.S. dollar.

    And in June 2023, Japan amended its Payment Services Acts to create a legal framework for stablecoins. Market participants in Japan and abroad are watching closely whether the JPY stablecoin can establish itself as a major global digital currency, such as Tether.

    Stablecoins promise to make payments faster, cheaper, and available 24/7. Japan’s cashless payment ratio jumped from about 30 percent in 2020 to 43 percent in 2024, and there’s still room to grow compared to other countries. The government’s push for fintech and digital payments is accelerating, and stablecoins could be the missing link to a truly digital economy.

    Unlike Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are designed to suppress price volatility. They’re managed by private companies and backed by assets—think cash, government bonds, or even commodities like gold. Industry watchers think stablecoins can make digital payments as reliable as cash, but with the speed and f…

32. Special Encore: An Unprecedented Wave of Inheritances Is Coming

    26 november 2025 · 4 min

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    Original Release Date: October 10, 2025 Lees meer

    Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.

    Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.

    ----- Transcript -----

    Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.

    Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.

    It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.

    Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.

    Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.

    According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.

    But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.

    What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts…

33. What’s Driving U.S. Growth in 2026

    25 november 2025 · 6 min

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    Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist.

    Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.

    It’s Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.

    If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.

    Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won’t hit the Fed’s 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn’t over, but the worst is behind us.

    So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.

    After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebou…

34. Bull Market Keeps an Eye on the Fed

    24 november 2025 · 4 min

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    Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why investors might want to reassess their portfolios, keeping in mind the gap between market moves and monetary policy. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, why the Fed may hold the key for both near term and medium-term stock market performance.

    It's Monday, November 24th at 1pm in New York.

    So, let’s get after it.

    At the end of September, we discussed the building tension between the Fed and markets in terms of both the fed funds rate and liquidity, suggesting this had the potential to lead to a correction in the short-term. This scenario is playing out with high momentum and low-quality stocks responding more to tightening liquidity back in September, while the high-quality S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 responded more to the incremental hawkishness on rate cuts relayed at the October 29th Fed meeting.

    While downside for the S&P 500 has been limited to just 5 percent, the damage under the surface has been more significant with two-thirds of the largest 1000 stocks seeing more than a 10 percent drawdown and one quarter down more than 20 percent. Similarly, Bitcoin is down close to 30 percent and topped even earlier than high momentum stocks. Gold also felt the impact of tighter liquidity earlier than the S&P 500, as one would expect.

    We’re staying vigilant around this dynamic related to monetary policy and can't rule out more index-level downside in the short-term, especially if breadth remains weak. Having said that, we think the weakness under the hood is a sign that we're closer to the end of this correction than the beginning for the weaker areas of the market. Historically, the Generals tend to fall the most at the end of corrections. As I said on this podcast back in September, we would view this type of correction and reset on expectations as…

35. AI Capex Boom Puts Credit Markets to the Test

    21 november 2025 · 4 min

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    As market murmurs about an AI bubble, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets offers some perspective on the impacts of the increasing demand for debt. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.

    Today, a look at a very different type of challenge for credit markets.

    It's Friday, November 21st at 6pm in Singapore.

    It has now been well over 15 years since the Global Financial Crisis shook the credit markets to its very core. It's hard to state just how extreme that period was. How many usual relationships and valuation approaches broke. It saw the worst credit losses in 80 years; I think, and hope, that this record will hold for the next 80.

    This shock, however, did have a silver lining for the credit market. After a crisis that was driven by bank balance sheets being too large and complex, they shrank and simplified. After companies saw capital markets suddenly shut, they increased their cash levels and often managed themselves more conservatively.

    The housing market long, the engine of debt growth in the U.S. saw much tighter lending standards and less overall borrowing. And so, all these trends had a common theme. Less bond supply. The credit market has seen numerous bouts of volatility in the years since. But these have generally been driven by concerns around the macro economy, like the eurozone crisis or COVID. Or they've been driven by companies’ specific issues such as weakness around the oil sector in the mid 2010s or the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. The idea that there would be too much borrowing for the level of demand and that this causes market weakness, well, it just hasn't been an issue.

    Until – that is – now.

    As we've discussed on this program, there is an enormous increase underway in the amount of capital expenditure by technology companies as they look to build out the infras…

36. 2026 Global Outlook: Micro Themes Take the Spotlight

    20 november 2025 · 5 min

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    Live from Morgan Stanley’s Asian Pacific Summit, our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains why micro trends are likely to be more on focus than macro shocks next year. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, coming to you from the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit underway in Singapore. Much of the client conversation at the summit was about the market outlook for 2026.

    In the last few days, you've heard from my colleagues about our outlook for the global economy, equities and cross asset markets. On today's podcast, I will focus on the outlook and key themes ahead for the global fixed income market.

    It's Thursday, November 20th at 10am in Singapore.

    Last year, the difficulty of predicting policy really complicated our task. This year brings its own challenges. But what we see is micro trends driving the markets in ways that adapt to a generally positive stance on risk. Our economists’ base case sees continued disinflation and growth converging towards potential by 2027, with the possibility that the potential itself improves. Notably, they present upside scenarios exploring stronger demand and rising productivity, while the downside case remains relatively benign. The U.S. remains pivotal, and the U.S. led shocks – positive and negative – should drive outcomes for the global economy and markets in 2026,

    In 2025, the combination of a resilient U.S. consumer supported by healthy balance sheets and rising wealth alongside robust AI driven CapEx has underpinned growth and helped avoid recession despite the headwinds of trade policy. These same dynamics should continue to support the baseline outlook in 2026, even though the path will be likely uneven. The Fed faces a familiar conundrum softening labor markets versus solid spending. The baseline assumes cuts to neutral as unemployment rises, followe…

37. 2026 U.S. Outlook: The Bull Market’s Underappreciated Narrative

    19 november 2025 · 5 min

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    Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.

    Today I’ll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week.

    It’s Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York.

    So, let’s get after it.

    2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year.

    Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation.

    We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink’ the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year.

    The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016.

    Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front s…

38. 2026 Global Outlook: A Strong Year for Risk Assets

    18 november 2025 · 11 min

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    Our Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter and Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang return to conclude their two-part episode on 2026 outlooks and explain why the market environment is turning in favor of risk assets, especially U.S. stocks. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.

    Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.

    Seth Carpenter: Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes.

    It's Tuesday, November 18th at 10am in New York.

    Alright, Serena in 2025, global markets rode some significant volatility driven by tariffs, policy uncertainty. Things went up, they went down. Equities ultimately outperformed bonds as rate cuts began. But cross-asset strategy depended so much on identifying correlations, opportunities – all in a world that is still adapting to the new geopolitical dynamics and what seemed like evolving rules.

    So, with that backdrop, could you just broadly tell us what the investment strategy should be in 2026?

    Serena Tang: We think 2026 will be a strong year for risk assets as you have unusually pro-cyclical policy mix that's supportive of earnings. And that frees up markets to shift the focus from global macro concerns, which of course have dominated this year, to more micro asset specific narratives. Particularly those related to AI CapEx investment.

    And I think such a constructive environment really calls for a risk on tilt. We recommend equities over credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets.

    Seth Carpenter: Okay. I think last year we had some preference, at least for U.S. equities. Are there any other big rotations versus more of the same that you really want…

39. 2026 Global Outlook: Slower Growth and Inflation

    17 november 2025 · 10 min

    Afspelen
    In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.

    Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.

    Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets.

    Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York.

    So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead?

    Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go.

    Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year.

    China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there…

40. 2026 Midterm Elections: What’s at Stake for Markets

    14 november 2025 · 4 min

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    Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year’s U.S. congressional elections. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.

    Today, we’re tackling a question that’s top of mind after last week’s off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year’s midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?

    It’s Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.

    In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.

    But before we jump to conclusions, let’s pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We’ll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come.

    Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Libe…

41. Who’s Disrupting — and Funding — the AI Boom

    13 november 2025 · 15 min

    Afspelen
    Live from Morgan Stanley’s European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product.

    Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology.

    We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments.

    It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona.

    After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme.

    Adam Wood: It’s fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges?

    Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum.

    Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the reven…

42. Europe in the Global AI Race

    13 november 2025 · 11 min

    Afspelen
    Live from Morgan Stanley’s European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway.

    The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?

    It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona.

    Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025.

    For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave.

    Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes.

    And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We…

43. Crypto Goes Mainstream

    11 november 2025 · 11 min

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    Our Research Analyst Michael Cyprys joins Wealth Management Strategist Denny Galindo to discuss how and why cryptocurrencies are transitioning from niche speculation to portfolio staples. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michael Cyprys: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges for Morgan Stanley Research.

    Denny Galindo: And I'm Denny Galindo, Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

    Michael Cyprys: Today we break down the forces making crypto more accessible and what this shift means for investors everywhere.

    It's Tuesday, November 11th at 10am in New York.

    We've seen cryptocurrencies move from the fringes of finance to being considered a legitimate part of mainstream asset allocation. Financial platforms, especially those serving institutional clients, are starting to integrate crypto more than ever.

    Denny, you've written extensively about the crypto market for some time now among your many jobs here at Morgan Stanley. So, from your perspective in wealth management, what are you hearing from retail clients about their growing interest in crypto?

    Denny Galindo: Yeah, we actually started writing about crypto back in 2017. We had our first explainer deck, and we started writing extensive educational reports in 2021. So, we've covered it for a while.

    Advisors who dabble in crypto typically had this one client. He asked a lot of questions about when they could do more. We also had some clients who were curious, maybe their neighbor made a lot of money, bought a new boat and they were like wondering, you know, what is this Bitcoin thing?

    Now, this year we've seen a sea change. I think it was the election really started it; the Genius Act, and some of the legislation also kind of added to it. Almost all this interest is really on Bitcoin only, although we also have gotten a decent amount of interest about stablecoins and how those might impact things.…

44. Relief and Volatility Ahead for U.S. Stocks

    10 november 2025 · 4 min

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    Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson unpacks why stocks are likely to stay resilient despite uncertainties related to Fed rates, government shutdown and tariffs. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I’ll be discussing recent concerns for equities and how that may be changing.

    It's Monday, November 10th at 11:30am in New York.

    So, let’s get after it.

    We’re right in the middle of earnings season. Under the surface, there may appear to be high dispersion. But we’re actually seeing positive developments for a broadening in growth. Specifically, the median stock is seeing its best earnings growth in four years. And the S&P 500 revenue beat rate is running 2 times its historical average. These are clear signs that the earning recovery is broadening and that pricing power is firming to offset tariffs.

    We’re also watching out for other predictors of soft spots. And over the past week, the seasonal weakness in earnings revision breath appears to be over. For reference, this measure troughed at 6 percent on October 21st, and is now at 11 percent. The improvement is being led by Software, Transports, Energy, Autos and Healthcare.

    Despite this improvement in earnings revisions, the overall market traded heavy last week on the back of two other risks. The first risk relates to the Fed's less dovish bias at October's FOMC meeting. The Fed suggested they are not on a preset course to cut rates again in December. So, it’s not a coincidence the U.S. equity market topped on the day of this meeting. Meanwhile investors are also keeping an eye on the growth data during the third quarter. If it’s stronger than anticipated, it could mean there’s less dovish action from the Fed than the market expects or needs for high prices.

    I have been highlighting a less dovish Fed as a risk for stocks. But it’s important t…

45. Fed’s Path Uncertain as Key Data Lags

    7 november 2025 · 10 min

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    Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss potential next steps for the FOMC and the risks to their views from the U.S. government shutdown. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.

    Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.

    Matthew Hornbach: The October FOMC meeting delivered a quarter percent rate cut as widely expected – but things are more complicated, and policy is not on a preset path from here.

    It's Friday, November 7th at 10am in New York.

    So, Mike, the Fed did cut by 25 basis points in October, but it was not a unanimous decision. And the Federal Open Market Committee decided to end the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1st – earlier than we expected. How did things unfold and does this change your outlook in any way?

    Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me. Not so much the statement or the decision, but there were dissents. There was a dissent in favor of a 50-basis point cut. There was a dissent in favor of no cut. And that foreshadowed the press conference – where really the conversation was about, I think, a divided committee; and a committee that didn't have a lot of consensus on what would come next.

    The balance sheet discussion, which we can get into, it came a little sooner than we thought, but it was largely in line with our view. And I'm not sure it's a macro critical decision right now. But I do think it was a surprise to markets and it was certainly a surprise to me – how much Powell's tone shifted between September and October, in terms of what the market could expect from the Fed going forward.

    So, what he said in essence, the key points, you know. The policy's not on a preset path from here. Or [a] cut in December is maybe not decidedly part of the baseline; or certainly is not a foregone conclusion…

46. Supreme Court Tests Trump Tariffs

    6 november 2025 · 4 min

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    Earlier this week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard a case challenging the current administration’s tariff policy. Our Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Research explains the potential magnitude of the case’s outcome for markets. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.

    Today, we discuss the challenge against tariffs at the Supreme Court and how it might affect markets.

    It’s Thursday, Nov 6th at 11am in New York.

    This week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments about the legality of most of the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. Investors are paying close attention because if the Supreme rules against the administration, it could undo much of the four-five times tariff increase that’s taken place in the U.S. this year. That would seem to set up this hearing, and a subsequent ruling which could come as early as this month, as a clear market catalyst. But, like many policy issues affecting the economic and markets outlook, the reality is more complicated.

    Here’s what you need to know.

    First, there’s ample debate among experts about how the court will rule. That may seem surprising given the court’s makeup. Three of the nine judges were appointed by President Trump, and six of the nine by Republican Presidents. But it's not clear they’ll agree that the President used his executive power in a way consistent with the law that granted the executive branch this particular power. That law is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. And, without getting into too much detail, the law appears to have been designed to deal with economic crises and foreign adversaries, which the court might argue is not evident when considering tariffs levied against traditional allies.

    But, the next important point is that a ruling against the Trump administration might not actually change…

47. Future of Work: AI’s Paradigm Shift for Labor

    5 november 2025 · 13 min

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    Concluding a two-part roundtable discussion, our global heads of Research, Thematic Research and Firmwide AI focus on the human impacts of AI adoption in the workplace. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts in The Market, and to part two of our conversation on AI adoption. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research. Once again, I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI.

    Today, let's focus on the human level. What this paradigm shift means for individual workers.

    It's Wednesday, November 5th at 10am in New York.

    Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, there's a lot of simultaneous fear and excitement around widespread AI adoption. There's obviously concern that AI could lead to massive job losses. But you seem optimistic about this paradigm shift. Why is that?

    Stephen Byrd: Yeah, as I mentioned in part one, this is the most popular discussion topic with my children. And I would say younger folks are quite concerned about this. There's a lot of angst among young folks thinking about what is that job market really going to look like for them. And admittedly, AI could be quite disruptive. So, we don't want to sugarcoat that. There's clearly going to be impacts across many jobs. Our work showed that around 90 percent of jobs will be impacted in some way. Oh, in the long term, I would guess nearly every job will be impacted in some way.

    The reason we are more optimistic is that what we see is a range of what we would think of as augmentation, where AI can essentially help you do something much better. It can help you expand your capabilities. And it will result in entirely new jobs.

    Now with any new technology, it's always hard to predict exactly what those new jobs are. But examples that I see in my world of energy would be smart grid analysis, predictive maintenance, managing systems in a much more efficient way. Systems …

48. Future of Work: AI’s Impact on Industries

    4 november 2025 · 13 min

    Afspelen
    In the first of a two-part roundtable discussion, our Global Head of Research joins our Global Head of Thematic Research and Head of Firmwide AI to discuss how the economic and labor impacts of AI adoption. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research, and I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI.

    Today and tomorrow, we have a special two-part episode on the number one question everyone is asking us: What does the future of work look like as we scale AI?

    It's Tuesday, November 4th at 10am in New York.

    I wanted to talk to you both because Stephen, your groundbreaking work provides a foundation for thinking through labor and economic impacts of implementing AI across industries. And Jeff, you're leading Morgan Stanley's efforts to implement AI across our more than 80,000 employee firm, requiring critical change management to unlock the full value of this technology.

    Let's start big picture and look at this from the industry level. And then tomorrow we'll dig into how AI is changing the nature of work for individuals.

    Stephen, one of the big questions in the news – and from investors – is the size of AI adoption opportunity in terms of earnings potential for S&P 500 companies and the economy as a whole. What's the headline takeaway from your analysis?

    Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is the most popular topic with my children when we talk about the work that I do. And the impacts are so broad. So, let's start with the headline numbers. We did a deep dive into the S&P 500 in terms of AI adoption benefits. The net benefits based on where the technology is now, would be about little over $900 billion. And that can translate to well over 20 percent increased earnings power that could generate over $13 trillion of market cap upon adoption. And importantly, that's where…

49. More Confidence in a Bull Market

    3 november 2025 · 4 min

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    Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at buying opportunities approaching year-end, as U.S. trade policy and the Fed find middle ground. Lees meer

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    ----- Transcript -----

    Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing recent macro events and third quarter earnings results.

    It's Monday, November 3rd at 11:30am in New York.

    So, let’s get after it.

    Last week marked the passage of two key macro events: the meeting on trade between Presidents Trump and Xi and the October Fed meeting. On the trade front, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China by 10 percent and delay newly proposed tech export controls for a year. In exchange, China agreed to pause its proposed export controls on rare earths, and resume soybean purchases while cracking down on fentanyl. This is a major positive relative to how developments could have gone following the sharp escalation a few weeks ago, and markets have responded accordingly.

    With respect to the Fed meeting, Powell suggested policy is not on a preset course which took the bond market probability of a December rate cut down from 92 percent before the meeting to 68 percent currently. It also led to some modest consolidation in equity prices while breadth remained very weak. In my view, the market is saying that if growth holds up but the Fed only cuts rates modestly, leadership is likely to remain narrow and up the quality curve.

    Over the next 6 to 12 months, we think moderate weakness in lagging labor data, and a stronger than expected earnings backdrop ultimately sets the stage for a broadening in market leadership. However, we are also respectful of the signals the markets are sending in the near term. This means it's still too early to press the small cap/low quality/deep cyclical rotation trade until the Fed shows a clear willingness to get ahead of the curve. Perhaps…

50. How Japan’s Stablecoin Could Reshape Global Finance

    31 oktober 2025 · 5 min

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    Our Japan Financials Analyst Mia Nagasaka discusses how the country’s new stablecoin regulations and digital payments are set to transform the flow of money not only locally, but globally. Lees meer

    Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.

    ----- Transcript -----

    Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Mia Nagasaka, Head of Japan Financials Research at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.

    Today – Japan’s stablecoin revolution and why it matters to global investors.

    It’s Friday, October 31st, at 4pm in Tokyo.

    Japan may be late to the crypto market. But its first yen-denominated stablecoin is just around the corner. And it has the potential to quietly reshape how digital money moves across the country and globally.

    You may have heard of digital money like Bitcoin. It’s significantly more volatile than traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds. Stablecoins are different. They are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets such as the yen or U.S. dollar.

    And in June 2023, Japan amended its Payment Services Acts to create a legal framework for stablecoins. Market participants in Japan and abroad are watching closely whether the JPY stablecoin can establish itself as a major global digital currency, such as Tether.

    Stablecoins promise to make payments faster, cheaper, and available 24/7. Japan’s cashless payment ratio jumped from about 30 percent in 2020 to 43 percent in 2024, and there’s still room to grow compared to other countries. The government’s push for fintech and digital payments is accelerating, and stablecoins could be the missing link to a truly digital economy.

    Unlike Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are designed to suppress price volatility. They’re managed by private companies and backed by assets—think cash, government bonds, or even commodities like gold. Industry watchers think stablecoins can make digital payments as reliable as cash, but with the speed and flexibility of the internet.

    Japan’s regu…