Alle afleveringen
211 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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202. The US Power Industry Mismatch: Large Load Growth vs. Investment Capital - Nov25
3 november 2025 · 28 min
Laurent and Gerard have an explosive conversation with Bryan Long, Executive Director in JPMorgan’s Commodities Group.
They explore why U.S. energy market signals are failing to support new capacity investments, despite soaring demand (especially from datacenters). Key issues include misaligned pricing, liquidity constraints, and hedging challenges, all of which deter long-term private capital. Lees meerKey Takeaways: Current price signals don’t support investment in new generation, even as large load growth (e.g., datacenters) is accelerating. Market structures must evolve to better reflect long-term price signals and attract private capital. Supply-side issues: New natural gas peakers and battery storage (BESS) face fragmented development, rising CAPEX, procurement delays, and tariff risks. Industry response: Major consolidation in the IPP space—private equity-backed assets are being acquired by integrated players seeking scale for hyperscaler deals.
Possible solutions may include Repricing of forward curves, Government-backed long-term contracts, Regulatory reforms, Technological advancements Bottom line: Something must shift—be it policy, pricing, or tech—to align investment incentives with future demand growth. The next several years should be great for traders in the middle of the action.Conclusion: Between the Large Load Growth and the Investment Capital, who will blink first?
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Bryan Long is an Executive Director in JPMorgan’s Commodities Group, focused on wholesale power & renewable energy transactions. With 20yrs+ experience across various U.S. Power trading, origination and management roles, he has deep understandings of electricity market structures. -
201. Battery Boom or Policy Bust? The Big EV Divergence - Oct25
27 oktober 2025 · 29 min
We are in the middle of a battery boom, for EVs and even more for BESS. What's really happening in the electric vehicle (EV) market? Is China dominating the field, or are serious alternatives emerging? What roles are Europe, the U.S., and other global regions playing? Which chemistries are winning out, and how are prices trending? Lees meer
These are the questions we ask ourselves every day — and today, Gerard and Laurent are thrilled to have someone who can help us answer them. Laurent and Gerard are joined by the brilliant Iola Hughes, Head of Research at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, following its acquisition of Rho Motion.
Iola leads research across the battery demand spectrum — from EVs to stationary storage — managing forecasts, tracking battery chemistries, and analyzing the impact of everything from regulation to OEM strategies and technology roadmaps. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and Rho Motion, as of 2025:
The Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) sector is growing at 40% year-over-year
The EV market is expanding by 25% year-over-year
But perhaps the most surprising trend is that forecasts made just 18 months ago are being exceeded — in nearly every region except the United States. There, the current administration appears to be kneecapped the industry by rolling back both incentives (like tax credits) and regulations (such as CAFE and emissions standards). Nissan in the US is moving back from EVs to hybrids while GM passes billions of impairments.
On the industrial side, it’s increasingly a case of China versus the world. China now has the capacity to manufacture a staggering 50 million vehicles per year, far outpacing domestic demand and sparking concerns about overcapacity.
In summary: we are witnessing a growing divide in the global battery and EV space. China is clearly in the lead. Europe and others are racing to catch up. And the U.S.? It’s at risk of falling further behind — not for lack of potential, but because of political and pol…
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200. “200 slides, Energy, AI, and the End of ESG” with Nat Bullard - Oct25
20 oktober 2025 · 30 min
For our 200th episode, we had the pleasure and privilege of speaking with Nat Bullard, one of the sharpest minds in the energy world. A leading analyst in climate and energy, Nat is known for his clear insights on clean energy, decarbonization, and the global energy transition. Formerly Chief Content Officer at BloombergNEF, he is now also a co-founder of the AI company Halcyon. Lees meer
Nat is perhaps best known for his annual 200-slide deck, a rich compilation of global data and charts that paints a clear, fact-based picture of where the energy sector is heading.
Our conversation spans major shifts shaping the future: the electrification of the Global South, the rise of AI and datacenters, the unravelling of ESG, and the evolving geopolitics of energy through the lens of "Electrostates vs. Petrostates"—and how investment flows are responding.
We also explore the dominant narratives in the energy space, many of which, we agree, are self-serving and unhelpful.
Ultimately, the energy transition is being held back less by technology and more by entrenched interests and a lack of curiosity. But the world is changing fast—and there is reason for hope. We thank AFRY for supporting the show.
Reference for reports quoted during the show
The Electrotech Revolution – Ember and Kingsmill Bond https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-electrotech-revolution/
Afry: Market and regulatory overview of the North Atlantic Transmission One -Link project https://afry.com/en/exploring-nato-l-project-and-transatlantic-power-exchange-decarbonised-future
"AFRY provides engineering, design, digital and advisory services to accelerate the transition towards a sustainable society. At AFRY, we are 19,000 devoted experts in industry, energy and infrastructure sectors, creating impact for generations to come. Best example of AFRY expertise is the report they just released on the Regulatory and Revenue Models for the North Atlantic Transmission One – Link." -
199. The LNG Mirage - Oct25
13 oktober 2025 · 28 min
The oil and gas industry is clinging to the narrative that we're entering a "Golden Age of Gas" — especially when it comes to LNG. Riding this assumption, companies have been pouring in investments at an aggressive pace, with plans to double LNG export capacity by the end of the decade. Lees meer
US LNG FIDs are breaking all records in 2025, with 55 mtpa of liquefaction capacity sanctioned since the start of the year. This is the second-best year for global LNG FIDs (Final Investment Decision), second only to 2019, when over 70 mtpa of FIDs .The latest example is the 14bnUSD FID for Sempra’s Port Arthur 2 in Texas in September 2025, mostly financed by large funds Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Goldman Sachs.
Currently, LNG exports make up about 16% of U.S. gas consumption. Projections suggest that figure could rise to 30% by 2030. But two major uncertainties loom large:
Demand: Will international markets absorb this flood of LNG? China's pivot toward Russian and Central Asian pipelines, Qatar’s own ramp-up in production, and Europe’s push to reduce reliance on expensive imported gas all cast doubt on future demand.
Supply: Will the U.S. have enough cheap gas to meet this export surge — especially as the AI boom is expected to drive up domestic gas use, while the federal government places increasing restrictions on renewable energy development?To unpack these critical questions, we’ve invited Justin Mikulka to explore what he calls the “LNG Mirage.” He’ll walk us through hard-hitting facts and trends that investors are currently overlooking. At events like CERAWeek and Gastech, the fossil fuel industry often seems to talk only to itself — echoing reassurances while ignoring warning signs. But winter is coming.
About the Speaker:
Justin Mikulka has spent the past decade investigating and reporting on the energy sector, with a particular focus on the shifting economics between fossil fuels and emerging clean technologies. He publishes regular insights at Powering the Planet and … -
198. Battery Blitz in Germany - Oct25
6 oktober 2025 · 28 min
Germany is experiencing a battery blitz. The market is expected to triple from 2GW to 6GW in less than two years. To give a bit of context, Zach Williams from Modo Energy, gives us the big picture and fundamentals of the German battery market. Lees meer
Legacy developers have not yet been able to catch that wave, but newcomers have. We bring on one those new pioneers, Philipp Man, CEO of Terralayr.
In less than three years, Philipp has managed to set up a company which operates or currently builds 150MW of batteries in Germany; more importantly he has managed to sign some of the first tolling agreements with heavyweights such as Vattenfall and RWE. His approach combines medium size batteries (10-30MW) rather than gigantic ones.
The Vattenfall-Terralayr deal is a pioneering seven-year, 55 MW multi-asset capacity tolling agreement for a decentralized fleet of battery energy storage systems (BESS) across Germany, announced in May 2025. Described as an industry-first "virtual battery tolling structure," it marks a significant shift from traditional single-asset tolling models, enabling scalable and flexible energy storage solutions without significant capital investment from Vattenfall.
With Philipp, we dissect his lightspeed approach in a seemingly bureaucratic environment, we analyse how he has been to put assets on the ground so fast, and his approach to commercialisation of flexibility combining hard assets and a digital layer.
We discuss the price formation of tolling agreements, the “tranching” of capacity and how he sees the future. Is Terralayr a tech company? Is it an infrastructure play? Well, a bit of both.
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197. The fight for accurate Carbon Accounting and 24/7 Green Power - Sep25
29 september 2025 · 22 min
With Gerard away, Laurent invited another Irishman, Killian Daly, to dive into a technical—but critically important—topic: carbon accounting, power procurement, the GHG Protocol (v3), and the push for 24/7 green energy. Lees meer
For as long as we can remember, companies have tried to boost their green credentials—high rewards if successful, limited consequences if they fall short. To curb exaggerated claims, standards like the GHG Protocol emerged.
Laurent was part of the original task force that developed the first version of the GHG Protocol. He recalls the pivotal moment that led to the creation of Scope 2: an infamous visit to the Tomago aluminium smelter in Australia back in 2000.
Fast forward two decades, and Killian Daly—now leading the forward-thinking organization EnergyTag—is driving efforts to embed 24/7 carbon accounting into the upcoming revision of Scope 2 of the GHG Protocol.
It’s a crucial battle—for transparency, integrity, digital innovation, and sound economics. Opposing us are certain (not all) Big Tech companies, whose actual emissions far exceed their green marketing, and fossil fuel lobbyists doing their best to delay progress.
But we are making progress—and we need your help. Join the fight. Reach out to Killian Daly at EnergyTag to see how you can get involved.
https://energytag.org/And don’t miss a major event: Green Energy Procurement – 10th October in London, hosted with Renewabl, S&P Global, and Shoosmiths. Last year the event was 250% oversubscribed. This year’s venue is bigger—but spots are going fast.
Secure your place now:
https://www.renewabl.com/post/join-us-for-renewabl-day-2025-inside-the-ppa-market -
196. Are SAF and Marine Green Fuels worth the Carbon Reductions? - Sep25
22 september 2025 · 30 min
Aviation and marine transport together account for approximately 15% of global oil consumption—a substantial share driven by sectors that are among the hardest to decarbonize. Unlike road transport or power generation, these industries face unique constraints: the high energy density required, long operating ranges, and the limitations of onboard storage mean that electrification or hydrogen solutions remain technologically and economically unfeasible in the near to medium term. Lees meer
In response, policymakers and industry leaders are increasingly focusing on low-carbon liquid fuels as transitional solutions. Chief among these are Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), both of which can be used in existing infrastructure and engines with minimal modification. These fuels can be of biological origin—typically derived from waste oils, agricultural residues, or purpose-grown feedstocks—or synthetic origin, such as Power-to-Liquid (PtL) fuels produced via electrolysis and CO₂ capture.
Globally, significant efforts are underway to scale up these alternatives. The European Union, for instance, has introduced blending mandates through the ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime regulations, requiring a gradual increase in the share of SAF or other renewable fuels used in transport. These policies are supported by a range of subsidies, research programs, and emissions trading mechanisms (e.g., EU ETS inclusion for aviation and shipping), all designed to stimulate supply and demand for cleaner fuels.
To help unpack the complex interplay of technical, economic, and regulatory challenges, we invited Callum McPherson, Chair of its Sustainable Business Forum and Head of Commodities at Investec, a London-based investment bank. With a mandate to structure and trade a wide array of fuels, Callum provides real-world insight into how these markets are evolving—and the limitations that remain.
Some of the key topics Laurent and Gerard explored w…
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195. The Battery Doctor - Sep25
15 september 2025 · 30 min
Battery technology lies at the core of the global energy transition, but managing and optimizing battery systems has become a highly specialized discipline. ACCURE is a cutting-edge startup that is redefining how batteries are monitored and operated. Lees meer
Using artificial intelligence, advanced sensors, and deep electrochemical expertise, ACCURE has established itself in the field of predictive battery analytics. The company currently supports over 6 gigawatt-hours of battery systems across various sectors including electric vehicles, grid-scale energy storage, marine applications, and insurance.
In this episode, Gerard and Laurent are joined by Dr. Kai-Philipp Kairies, CEO and co-founder of ACCURE, to explore How cloud-based analytics are driving advancements in battery safety, performance, and longevity.
The conversation delves into the electrochemical processes occurring inside batteries and how sensors provide critical insights. We also examine the role of Battery Management Systems (BMS) and Energy Management Systems (EMS) as the digital infrastructure of battery operation and how predictive analytics represents a new category of operational capability for battery fleets.
From early warning systems that prevent thermal runaway to precise lifetime predictions that influence asset financing, ACCURE demonstrates how data-driven insights can transform battery systems into safer, more efficient, and more profitable energy assets.
Laurent and Gerard enjoy having dynamic start-ups on the show, that foster the Energy Transition.
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194. Next-Gen Weather Forecasting: AI, Satellites, and Drones - Sep25
8 september 2025 · 27 min
Water, wind, sunlight — the driving forces behind renewable energy. The better we can predict them, the more we can accelerate progress and reduce risk. Lees meer
Weather forecasting is undergoing a quantum leap, powered by breakthroughs in satellites, drones, and artificial intelligence. Once the exclusive domain of national weather services, the industry is now being transformed by a new wave of tech-driven startups. And the market is booming.
In this episode, Laurent and Gerard welcome Dr. Martin J. Fengler, a German mathematician and the founder and CEO of Meteomatics AG. Based in Switzerland, Meteomatics is a cutting-edge weather technology company with over 130 employees and a client base of 600 — including high-profile names like NASA, Lockheed Martin, Toyota, Tesla, and numerous utility companies. About 25% of its clients are in the energy sector.
Meteomatics stands out not only for its AI-driven weather models but also for its proprietary fleet of weather drones, capable of flying up to 6 kilometres high, delivering ultra-precise atmospheric data. The company has raised over $35 million in venture capital to date.
In our conversation, we explore the future of weather tech, its role in tackling climate change, the growing risks of extreme weather, surprising use cases — and yes, even wind theft.
Heads up: This one’s for the geeks.
And at the end, Laurent sings for Lisa
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193. The Seven Deadly Sins of the Energy Transition
1 september 2025 · 30 min
Three wise men met and discussed the Seven Sins of The Energy Transition. Laurent, Gerard and Michael dissect seven sectors that have captured attention, investments and public money and are at best dead ends, at worst disasters waiting to happen. Lees meer
Greed — “Subsidy Mining in a Lab Coat” (Carbon Capture & Direct Air Capture)
A capital-intensive detour that soaks up public money while delivering trivial abatement at extreme cost, great PR for incumbents, weak climate math.Gluttony — “Three Kilowatt-Hours to Move One” (Hydrogen-for-Energy)
An energy-wasting appetite: make H₂ with clean power, then throw most of that power away moving, compressing, liquefying, and reconverting it—useful only in narrow industrial niches.Sloth — “Always ‘On Time’ by 2040” (Small Modular Reactors)
Perma-prototype promises that stay years late and dollars short while wind, solar, and storage deploy at scale now.Pride — “We Will Bottle the Sun” (Fusion Salvationism)
Technological hubris as strategy: a captivating physics quest, but not a climate plan for the 2030s. Invest in science, don’t budget on miracles.Lust — “Drop-In Fantasies for Every Engine” (Biofuels-Everywhere)
The seductive promise of pouring yesterday’s fuels into tomorrow’s problems; keep them for hard-to-electrify edges, not as a universal fix.Wrath — “Culture War at Sea” (America’s Offshore-Wind Own-Goals)
Ideological backlash, litigation, and policy whiplash torch viable projects and local supply chains while the rest of the world builds.Envy — “Green Halo by Checkbox” (ESG Box-Ticking)
Chasing ratings and labels instead of real-world decarbonization and cash-flow-relevant risk; better to separate E, S, and G and measure outcomes -
192. How AI will revolutionise Energy
25 augustus 2025 · 23 min
Gerard delivered a keynote on Digitalisation, AI, Supply Chains and Electrification at the EcoVadis Global Summit. Lees meer
Gerard Reid argues that we are living through a new industrial revolution driven by digitalization, AI, and electrification, comparable in scale to the steam and automobile revolutions of the past. He highlights how China is rapidly outpacing Western forecasts in areas like AI, solar power, and electric vehicles, reshaping global competitiveness. Reid stresses that AI will transform industries—from healthcare to transport to energy—while massively increasing the world’s demand for electricity, which will increasingly be met through solar and battery storage. His central message is that businesses and countries must adopt a growth mindset, embrace AI as an enabler, and adapt quickly—or risk irrelevance in the face of accelerating global change.
EcoVadis is a globally recognized platform that provides sustainability ratings and assessments for companies, focusing on their Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance. It evaluates businesses across four key themes: Environment, Labor and Human Rights, Ethics, and Sustainable Procurement. These assessments help companies manage ESG risks, ensure compliance, and improve sustainability practices across their operations and supply chains.
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191. “How Big Things Get Done” with Pr. Bent Flyvbjerg (hosted by Michael Barnard)
18 augustus 2025 · 1 uur 20 min
This is a re-release of the legendary interview by Michael Barnard of Pr Bent Flyvbjerg on our sister show ”Redefining Energy Tech” Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, an expert on megaprojects and author of How Big Things Get Done, shares insights from a database of over 16,000 projects, revealing that 99.5% fail to meet expectations in budget, timeline, or benefits. Lees meer
He stresses the value of learning from successful projects, especially in renewable energy, where solar, wind, and transmission projects outperform nuclear power, which suffers from regulatory hurdles and skill shortages.
Flyvbjerg introduces key concepts like modularity, repeatability, and the “window of doom”—the critical early phase when delays can derail projects. He contrasts fast, modular successes like the Tesla Gigafactory with slow, complex projects like nuclear plants and the Olympics.
The episode also compares pumped hydro and battery storage, highlighting the role of risk management, stakeholder alignment, and using data-based heuristics to guide project decisions. Listeners are encouraged to understand base rates, study variance charts (especially Chapter 9 of Flyvbjerg's book), and develop their own heuristics for better megaproject outcomes.
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190. Solar and Flex – Solar Power Summit 2025
11 augustus 2025 · 40 min
This Spring, Laurent Segalen was invited by Solar Power Europe to moderate a panel, during the Solar Power Summit, around the theme ”Winning the Flex challenges”. Lees meer
The Speakers were:
Andrea Wechsler, Member of the European Parliament, EPP, Germany
Paula Rey Garcia, Acting HoU Renewables & Energy System Integration, DG ENER, European Commission
Nick Bitsios, Head of Brussels Office, Metlen
Juan Rivier Abbad, Head of Global Renewables Regulation, Iberdrola
Vlasios Souflis, COO EMEA, Lightsource BP
Jose Manuel Carvalho, Head of Renewable Energy JV & Partnerships, Arcelor Mittal
There is a European Policy being developed called the Green Industrial Deal. What is it? Does it work? Does it answer the current issues faced by Solar developers and Energy Consumers?
The panel confront the views of various actors, from policy makers to the private sector. A very lively debate with unexpected outcomes.
We thank Walburga Hemetsberger and the whole team of Solar Power Europe for organising that great event
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189. Energy Disruptions - (Gerard on "Clean Titans")
4 augustus 2025 · 1 uur 10 min
This is Summer time, so we publish some contents that we have created on other channels Lees meer
A few weeks ago, Gerard came on the ”Clean Titans”
The YouTube channel “Clean Titans” focused on clean energy, is hosted by Sam Evans, known as The Clean Energy Guy. His content dives into clean energy topics with enthusiasm, aiming to educate and inspire viewers about sustainable solutions.
Gerard talks about “Energy Disruptions” and you can watch him here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5LGTcT-EOw
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188. US/Petrostate vs EU/Electrostate – a joint episode with Open Circuit
28 juli 2025 · 32 min
On July 7th, Gerard and Laurent were invited to appear on the U.S. podcast Open Circuit, alongside Jigar Shah, Katherine Hamilton, and Stephen Lacey. It was an emotional reunion—Jigar and Katherine were part of the original Energy Gang, the very show that inspired us to create our own. Lees meer
We had a rich, two-part conversation. The first part revisited the Spanish blackouts, a topic we had already explored in Episode 185. The second part delved into Europe’s energy security and the evolving dynamic between “Petrostates” and “Electrostates”—the main focus of this episode.
Twenty years ago, Europe and the U.S. shared a broadly aligned energy landscape. But the rise of American energy dominance has since driven a wedge between the two, contributing to today’s political fractures across the Atlantic.
Together, the five of us explored the implications of this growing misalignment—and where we might go from here. It was a passionate and thought-provoking discussion.
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187. Texas: Power Surge or Power Splurge? - Jul25
21 juli 2025 · 26 min
Texas is an oddity in the western electricity world: fastest growing load, ultra-low prices, crazy development of renewables. Texas consumes now more power than France, despite having only half the population. Prices are a factor 4 lower compared to 20 years ago. And 90% of additional load has been provided by Wind and Solar, despite the permanent attacks from the fossil fuel lobby. Lees meer
To make sense of the current situation in Texas, and also talk about the future, with unbelievable projections, full of AI and Datacentres, we have the pleasure of welcoming Arushi Sharma Frank.
Arushi Sharma Frank is an energy policy expert with deep expertise in distributed energy resources (DERs) and virtual power plants (VPPs). She pioneered ERCOT frameworks for grid-integrated VPPs and the integration of batteries on the Grid, while at Tesla where she worked between 2020 and 2024. Arushi was a key architect of the Texas Public Utility Commission’s Aggregated DER pilot, enhancing grid resilience post-Winter Storm Uri.
The Lone Star State is at the crossroads: will the additional load arrive? Are the renewables in danger? Can fossil fuels make a come-back, or are we seeing this wrongly, as the new model suggest that it is all about flexibility.
Finally, the best source for information on renewable energy in Texas is Doug Lewin: www.douglewin.com
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186. Power under Pressure: Fortum’s CEO on Datacenters’ growth and Russian Attacks (Eurelectric)
14 juli 2025 · 25 min
Laurent had the pleasure and privilege of sitting down with Markus Rauramo, CEO of Fortum, during the Eurelectric “Power Play” conference in Brussels this June. Lees meer
Fortum, the Finnish energy company also active in Sweden and Poland, finds itself right on the front line when it comes to tensions with Russia—not exactly your average utility boardroom drama. The conversation kicks off with Markus’s recent election as President of Eurelectric, taking over from none other than Leo “the Great” Birnbaum, CEO of E.ON.
We talk about the challenges Markus has faced so far, including how Fortum managed to steer through the stormy waters of the Ukraine war, and what’s ahead for the industry. Spoiler: it’s not all doom and gloom—there’s strategy, resilience, and some surprisingly good teamwork. Markus rolls out Eurelectric’s Manifesto centred on customers, security of supply and digitisation (AI).
Markus introduces his vice-presidential duo: Georgios Stassis (CEO of PPC) and Catherine MacGregor (CEO of Engie). According to him, it’s a well-balanced trio—think energy world’s version of the Avengers, but with spreadsheets and grid stability. He also gives kudos to Kristian Ruby, Secretary General of Eurelectric, and the Brussels team for their stellar behind-the-scenes work.
The chat then shifts to the Baltics, one of the rare places in Europe where electricity demand is actually growing. Fortum’s been ahead of the game there too: Markus reveals they now have over 1.3 GW of capacity lined up and ready to power new datacenters.
Of course, we couldn’t ignore the constant cyber-attacks and sabotage attempts coming from Russia. Markus shares how Fortum has learned to deal with them—let’s just say they don’t flinch easily anymore.
And finally, a public mea culpa: Laurent repeatedly referred to Finland as part of Scandinavia. A common slip-up. For the record: Finland is next to Scandinavia, but it’s not in it. The Finns are Nordic, not Scandinavian—but much like their neighbours to …
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185. Blackouts - Jul25
7 juli 2025 · 25 min
What Really Happened During the Iberian Blackout This Spring? And How Should We Make Sense of the Conflicting Reports? Lees meer
To shed light on the events, Gerard and Laurent are joined by global energy expert Steve Berberich, who served as President and CEO of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) from 2011 to 2020. Steve led CAISO through the August 2020 blackout in California and now serves as President and CEO of Onward Energy.
We begin by placing the Iberian blackout in a broader context—comparing and contrasting it with major grid failures from recent years: South Australia 2016, California 2020, Texas Uri 2021, Ireland 2024, Louisiana 2025 and of course Iberia 2025.
We examine both the long-term systemic weaknesses and short-term triggering events behind each case—identifying patterns, divergences, and the reforms that followed in their aftermath. Then we turn our full attention to Spain. Unlike the other blackouts, the Iberian event did not stem from extreme weather. Instead, Steve—along with Gerard and Laurent—dives deep into the underlying structural vulnerabilities of the Spanish grid.
From regulatory gaps and design flaws to operational mistakes, we scrutinize the entire system and arrive at a set of clear, evidence-based conclusions.
Link to Gerard’s substack https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/spains-grid-blame-blackouts-bureaucracy-gerard-reid-tiqre/
Link to the Energy Institute Report https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
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184. Market dynamics and Pricing of Battery Materials - Jun25
23 juni 2025 · 33 min
Six years ago, Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence shook the world in a now legendary testimony in front of the US Senate. Then, Simon predicted the exponential growth of batteries and the control that China was starting to exert of the supply chains. Lees meer
Fast forward today, we bring in, Caspar Rawles, Simon’s trusted lieutenant, and COO of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence to assess how Simon’s predictions panned out. What was prophetic and what never materialized. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a London-based Price Reporting Agency (PRA) founded in 2014, specializes in lithium-ion battery and EV supply chains, offering IOSCO-accredited price assessments, supply-demand forecasts, ESG analytics, consultancy, global events, and policy influence.
It focuses on critical minerals and recently expanded with Rho Motion, valued at $500M. Caspar talks about the growth of BMI, about the importance of its agreement with ICE, and how he sees the future.
Laurent and Gerard conclude on Lithium and Rare Earths. Not really what you expect.
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183. Energy Security from the front line: Eastern Europe and Renewables - Jun25
16 juni 2025 · 27 min
Laurent remembers vividly his trip to Sofia Bulgaria in winter 2009 when the Russians had cut the gas for Bulgaria during a -15C winter. Russia was already playing hard ball because of (guess what) a financial disagreement with Ukraine. The blackmail lasted 3 weeks, and the poor Bulgarians were cutting the trees from their equivalent of Hyde Park or Central Park not to freeze to death. Lees meer
Lots of progress has been made since then, and Eastern Europe is an emerging bright spot of development for Renewables. It is not just about Economics but also about Security of Supply. We bring in Dimitar Enchev, Cofounder & CEO Europe at CWP - a global renewable energy company, behind some of the largest projects in Southeast Europe.
CWP has been active since 2007 and developed the largest projects in Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, including Europe’s largest onshore wind farm for 10 years – a 600MW project in Romania and has now partnered with Mercuria, one of the largest energy trading houses in the world. They discuss how Eastern Europe felt the largest blunt of Russia’s Energy War and how they have been accustomed to living, surviving and thriving with a hostile and aggressive neighbour, always prompt to weaponize energy. Is Europe “bringing a knife to a gunfight” when it comes to countering Russia?
We explain how opportunities have risen from this difficult environment and how the decorrelation of wind and solar between the East and West of the Continent, and a continuous integration with the global European Grid creates significant investment opportunities. It is about Transmission, Resilience, Hybridization and digitization.
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182. Broken grids and Datacenters load growth - Jun25
9 juni 2025 · 32 min
We have recently witnessed spectacular black outs: South Australia 2016, Texas Uri 2021, California 2020-21-25 and Iberia 2025. We are not even mentioning fragile grids in the Global South. We will do an episode on those blackouts later this year. Lees meer
The U.S. electrical grid, now over a century old, struggles to meet modern demands. Utilities are slow to adapt, and supply chains are congested, posing challenges for accommodating new load developments like datacenters and AI while ensuring reliable, affordable power for existing customers.
Jereme Kent, an engineer with practical expertise, is tackling these issues head-on. As the leader of One Power (an Ohio-based industrial power company) Kent champions customer-centric, decarbonized power grids. One Power delivers innovative, renewable-focused energy solutions, empowering industrial clients to manage costs and emissions through on-site wind power, EV charging hubs, and other advanced infrastructure. This approach challenges the outdated utility model, embodying a "Utility 2.0" vision.
A key innovation lies in transformer design: shifting from bespoke to modular, standardized systems to enhance efficiency and scalability. Kent also highlights the advantages of renewable energy, noting that power purchase agreements (PPAs) for renewables can extend up to 20 years, compared to just three years for gas. Additionally, small behind-the-meter batteries play a critical role in stabilizing energy supply and optimizing costs.
Digital tools and software are another focus, where Kent offers unexpected insights, emphasizing practical, streamlined solutions over complex systems. He points to SMUD, a progressive utility in Sacramento, California, as a model for grid management. SMUD’s forward-thinking strategies have yielded impressive results, setting a benchmark for others to follow.
In the realm of transformer technology, Kent advocates for "dumb simplicity," inspired by the German motto “Stumpf ist Trumpf” (simple is best)…
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181. “Hot Air” from Tony Blair - May25
26 mei 2025 · 20 min
The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) recently released a widely publicized report titled “The Climate Paradox”, which has garnered significant positive attention from outlets such as the Guardian, the BBC, the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and much of the European press. Lees meer
Beginning with the statement, “Climate action has reached an impasse,” the report, authored by Lindy Fursman (who holds a PhD in Sociology from UC Berkeley), outlines several key “facts” that have been effectively debunked by experts like Michael Liebreich in his Substack and Michael Barnard in Cleantechnica.
The TBI concludes with a series of recommendations, the most prominent being the call to “accelerate and scale technologies that capture carbon, alongside significant investments in engineered carbon-dioxide removal technologies, including direct air capture (DAC) solutions”. To emphasize this message, the cover of TBI’s report features an image of Climeworks’ plant in Iceland. Climeworks, a Swiss engineering company with 500 employees, has received $800 million in equity and subsidies from major players such as Partners Group, the GIC (Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund), Baillie Gifford (an early investor in Tesla), Swiss Re, and Microsoft.
However, last week, Climeworks faced a major setback when it was revealed that despite receiving substantial funding, the company had only captured 105 tonnes of CO2—not 105,000, but just 105 tonnes (less than a single flight London – New York) —despite the strong backing of tech giants like Stripe, Microsoft and Shopify.
This revelation has sparked widespread concern and warranted a prompt discussion with Laurent Segalen, Gerard Reid and Michael Barnard to assess the implications. The conversation will explore the credibility of the TBI’s stance on energy, the broader potential of DAC, and whether this technology is, in fact, a case of "Deception, Amateurism, and Con."
Links:
Michael Liebreich substack:
https://mliebreich.substack.com/p/why… -
180. The KKR Energy formula - May25
19 mei 2025 · 27 min
KKR is a Private Equity giant whose involvement in the Energy/Infrastructure sector has grown bigger over the decades. Energy/Infrastructure investments now represents approx 10% of their global Asset under Management of c.700bnUSD. Lees meer
KKR’s approach combines several strategies which are developed in different vehicles from run of the mill yield funds to more risky platforms. Since the beginning of the decade, KKR has invested billions in the acquisitions of assets in the sector (Zenobe, Avantus, Albioma, Contour Global, Actis, Ignis, SMS, Acciona, Encavis, EGC, Eni biofuels) plus a special agreement to develop AI with ECP.
Laurent and Gerard have the pleasure and privilege to invite Emmanuel Lagarrigue, Partner and co-head of Global Climate at KKR, who co-runs this global effort. Prior joining KKR in 2022, Emmanuel had a 27 years stellar career at Schneider Electric where he ended up leading the Group Strategy. Under his tenure, Schneider Electric’s shares grew tenfold.
What is KKR’s strategy, how can it provide returns in this volatile environment, how to foster synergies inside its portfolio, where are the next big trends they are looking at? Emmanuel also discusses how private markets and public markets differ when it comes to asset valuations, how to deal with volatility, how much energy growth will be triggered by datacenters and finally what he thinks about Hydrogen and ”Green Premiums”.
A ”tour de force” from one of the most prominent Energy investor on the planet.
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179. The future of the Auto Industry: Winners, challengers and zombies - May25
12 mei 2025 · 31 min
On one hand, tariffs are causing significant disruption in the global automotive industry. On the other, the electric vehicle (EV) market continues to surge, seemingly unaffected. According to the latest Q1 2025 data from Rho Motion, 4.1 million EVs were sold globally in Q1 2025—a 29% year-over-year increase compared to Q1 2024. Growth is particularly strong in China (+36%), followed by Europe (+22%) and North America (+16%). Lees meer
To help make sense of these opposing dynamics—and to assess which OEMs are likely to lead or fall behind—Laurent and Gerard have brought in a top-tier expert: Michael J. Dunne. Michael is the CEO of Dunne Insights LLC, a San Diego-based firm specializing in electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and battery supply chains. With over three decades of experience, Michael has held prominent roles including President of General Motors Indonesia and Managing Director of JD Power China. He is also the author of American Wheels, Chinese Roads (2011), and the host of the podcast Driving With Dunne.
Key Insights from Our Conversation:
China: BYD reigns supreme, followed by legacy brands, tech giants, and emerging players.
Japan: Toyota, the shogun of the market, stands tall—while the rest struggle to keep up.
Korea: A tale of strong potential under threat.
Germany: VW appears stuck in reverse, Mercedes feels increasingly "Chinese," and BMW navigates a narrow path.
USA: Stellantis, Ford, and GM—industries in limbo, often described as “zombies.”
The Wild Card: Tesla. With Elon at the helm, anything is possible—genius or chaos.
Across all regions, we forecast who the likely winners are, who may barely survive, and who seem destined for the dustbin of history.
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178. Delivering the Wind Reset - May25
5 mei 2025 · 26 min
Laurent and Gerard sit down for an in-depth (and at times fiery) conversation with Ben Backwell, Chair of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), to unpack the current state of the wind industry. Ben joins from Brazil, where preparations for COP30 are already underway. Lees meer
As GWEC has just released its flagship Global Wind Report 2025—a must-read for anyone serious about the energy transition—they reflect on wind power’s progress. While the sector has continued to grow, it's been outpaced by solar and storage, grappling with supply chain bottlenecks, technical hurdles, and an all-out culture war driven by fossil fuel interests and political headwinds.
The discussion covers the recent struggles of the U.S. offshore wind sector.
We also dive into China’s meteoric rise, now dominating two-thirds of the global wind market with players like Goldwind, Envision, Windey, and Mingyang—now surpassing Western stalwarts such as Vestas, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova.
Despite the noise and negativity—what Laurent refers to as “the enemies of freedom”—there’s reason to stay hopeful. Wind remains a cornerstone of clean, secure, and locally sourced energy in many regions.
Check out the full Global Wind Report 2025 from GWEC here: https://www.gwec.net/reports/globalwindreport
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177. The Transatlantic Power Cable: from concept to reality - Apr25
28 april 2025 · 36 min
There's been a great deal of excitement and curiosity surrounding the idea of a Transatlantic Interconnector. So, as co-founders, Laurent Segalen and Simon Ludlam, alongside their adviser Gerard Reid, have decided to release a special episode to bring our listeners up to speed on where things currently stand. Lees meer
While we can’t dive into our discussions with governments and system operators—those are protected by NDAs—rest assured, those conversations are very much underway, as you might expect. To put this episode together, we have brought in a range of perspectives:
First, you'll hear an excerpt from a conversation with John Pettigrew, CEO of National Grid, on the Aurora Unplugged podcast last October, where he discusses the potential of ultra-long interconnectors.
Next, we feature an interview with Laurent on the Jolts podcast from this February.
That’s followed by a deep dive into the technical aspects with Cornelis Plet, Global Head of HVDC at DNV.
We then explore the legal landscape with Silke Goldberg, partner at Herbert Smith Freehills and one of the world’s foremost legal experts in this area.
And finally, we wrap up with a conversation between the co-founders, where Simon Ludlam lays out the key steps ahead in the coming months and Gerard engages with investors.
We hope this gives you a clearer picture of what has been accomplished so far—and what lies ahead on this ambitious journey.
A lot of information, reports and data are available on www.nato-l.org
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176. Renewables are dominating the Electrification of an Energy-hungry world (with Ember) - Apr 25
14 april 2025 · 31 min
As we start receiving data for the year 2024 in terms of Energy Production and Consumption, it is time to have a forensic analysis of the global Energy Complex in 2024. Lees meer
Last month we had the always comprehensive IEA Global Energy Review, and now to go deep into Electrification, we just received the Ember's sixth Global Electricity Review. We brought in two of its three authors: Dr Katye Altieri and Nicolas Fulghum to discuss the main finding. We’re sorry Euan Graham, the third author, could not join.
Here are the key findings:
Electricity growth is twice as fast as Energy Growth
The world electricity consumption grew by the size of Japan (last decade it was annually the size of Brazil)
80% of that additional demand is met by renewables
Demand drive is led by Cooling, Heating, Transportation and Datacenters
World surpasses 40% clean power as renewables (incl. hydro and nuclear) see record rise
Solar is the main driver of renewables growth, with generation doubling in three years
And more findings in this comprehensive episode.
Thank you, Ember Energy.
Link to the report: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/--------------
Other reports mentioned during the show:
IEA Report: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025
IRENA Report: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Mar/Renewable-capacity-statistics-2025 -
175. Capitalizing on the Infrastructure giants’ Blind Spots - Apr25
7 april 2025 · 30 min
Capitalizing on the Infrastructure giants’ Blind Spots: How can a specialised PE fund thrive under the new US Administration? Lees meer
The Energy Transition encompasses more than just power and AI. We have chosen to explore the niche yet crucial areas of waste gas, biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and emissions capture.
At the heart of this journey is Cresta, a $2 billion specialist fund positioned at the intersection of Private Equity and Infrastructure. Chris Rozzell, the fund's Managing Partner, shares insights on how a fund focused on industrial sectors can thrive in underappreciated sub-sectors like mid-stream infrastructure—areas often overlooked by larger, more traditional funds.
By adopting a strategy akin to a scavenger's approach, Cresta has capitalized on these opportunities. Chris also discusses the impact of the new US administration on his investment thesis and why choosing the Zag when everyone else is choosing the Zig has proven to be highly profitable.
While the Energy Transition is multifaceted, it is also fraught with blind spots. Cresta stands as a prime example of how industrial expertise can drive meaningful decarbonization efforts.
The discussion in this podcast is for informational purposes and should not be relied on as investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Any opinions expressed are those of the speaker and are subject to change. Listeners should not make investment decisions based solely on the information in this podcast.
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174. Live from Cambridge – Laurent and Gerard with Pr. David Cebon on Electrifying trucks
31 maart 2025 · 31 min
Early March, Gerard and Laurent were invited by the Cambridge University Energy Technology Society (CUETS) for a live session of Redefining Energy. Lees meer
In front of hundreds of attentive students, they had a comprehensive debate with Pr. David Cebon about the Electrification of Trucks. What are the issues (technical, economic) and what are the proposed solutions from Electric roads to batteries?
We enjoyed sharing with an enthusiastic crowd at St John's College, Cambridge and give a special thanks to Max Krefting for the flawless organisation.
A memorable evening for all participants.
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173. The politization of Critical Materials - Mar25
24 maart 2025 · 33 min
The XXIst century economy will be powered by 'critical minerals' such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths. China has spent the past 20 years building a dominant position across the supply chain for these metals. Lees meer
The rest of the world is finally waking up to the economic and geopolitical challenges that this presents and is actively trying to secure the supplies of critical minerals by creating non-Chinese supply chains.
Gerard and Laurent sat down with Richard Tite, Chief Investment Officer of TechMet, a critical minerals investment company that is partially owned by the U.S. Government through a series of equity investments by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). TechMet’s portfolio currently includes 10 projects across North America, South America, Africa, and Europe, that produce, process, and recycle critical minerals.
How does it work? What are the costs? Can China be countered? Does it succeed?
Are Critical Minerals truly critical? They are certainly polarizing.
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172. The new age of Energy Security, Flexibility, and Resilience (with Eurelectric)
17 maart 2025 · 25 min
Laurent welcomes Kristian Ruby, Secretary General of Eurelectric, to discuss Energy Security, Resilience and Flexibility though the impact of E-Mobility. Lees meer
Energy Security has become a critical issue, especially with the recent sabotage of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea by Russian and Chinese vessels, extreme weather events knocking out a third of the Irish Grid, and Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Kristian shares the story of his harrowing visit to a power plant in Ukraine, where DTEK engineers are bravely working through air raids every day to keep the lights on. The conversation expands to cover all aspects of Energy Security as we enter the Age of Electricity, exploring both cyber and physical measures that can be taken to protect energy systems.
The discussion also touches on the latest advancements in E-Mobility, including how Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology can provide additional security and offer consumers a chance to earn more revenue.
Eurelectric represents a strong, forward-thinking industry that exemplifies resilience and solidarity in the face of challenges.
Join us at Power Summit Brussels 3 and 4 June to discuss those topics and many others
Home - Eurelectric Power Summit 2025 -
171. PPAs and Tolling: lessons for the future - Mar25
3 maart 2025 · 26 min
It has become a tradition to welcome Luca Pedretti, Co-Founder of Pexapark, to the show to discuss the evolving PPA market, especially now that Pexapark has released its annual State of the Market report.
Laurent and Gerard are joined by Luca to highlight the key insights from this year’s findings: Lees meerCorporate PPA demand remains stable, but with new entrants
More deals, but smaller sizes: The number of transactions increased by 16% (+37 deals), even as total volumes declined.
Innovative deal structures on the rise: Hybrid models, such as solar-wind PPAs, multi-buyer/portfolio arrangements, and cross-border agreements, are gaining traction, offering enhanced flexibility and risk-sharing.
The continuous rise of 24/7 energy with the need to track and trade GoOs
We also delve into the topic of negative prices, capture prices, and their implications. The conversation extends to Pexapark’s predictions for 2025.
Additionally, we explore the growing role of batteries, new tolling agreements, and their impact, along with how batteries are increasingly incorporated into PPAs.
Finally, we turn our attention to the US market, discussing Pexapark’s first acquisition of a US company, Renewafi, marking a significant step in Pexapark’s american expansion.
Link to Report: https://pexapark.com/pexapark-renewables-market-outlook-2025/
Link to Renewafi: https://www.renewafi.com/ -
170. Why is the electricity Supercycle unstoppable? Gerard in Davos
24 februari 2025 · 26 min
As urgent calls for climate change action continue, an energy supercycle is underway, driven by the increasing need for electrification and digitalization, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI and data centers. Securing a reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy supply to meet this demand is crucial. Lees meer
At the 2025 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting at Davos, Hitachi, Ltd. Executive Chairman Toshiaki Higashihara and Hitachi Energy CEO Andreas Schierenbeck, with Elisabeth V. Vardheim (Statnett) and Gerard Reid (Alexa Capital), participate in a panel discussion on 22 January 2025 to explore the parallels between today’s energy landscape and offer insights into how global stakeholders can drive change to address the climate crises.
In summary, how to turn couch potatoes into ironmen. Laurent’s conclusion is that Davos is a perfect microcosm to capture CEOs’ Zeitgeist. And when you hear a global consensus, like 4 years ago on Net Zero and Climate and this year on AI… then it is probably time to SELL.
This event is part of the Davos Accredited Programme. Full video here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIXafAbc1gc
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169. 2025 State of play in the battery universe - Feb25
17 februari 2025 · 30 min
2024 has been another exceptional year for the battery industry. We have invited Aaron Wade to discuss the various technological and economic aspects of this rapidly expanding universe. Aaron is a rising star in the battery world. Not only is a key member of the Volta Foundation, but he is also Business Development Lead at Gaussion, a U.K. start up that improves charging capacities in batteries.
The Volta Foundation just released its monumental 516 pages report, covering industry, technology, research, government policy, standards. It is a must read for anybody in the industry.
Link to the Volta Foundation report: https://volta.foundation/battery-report-2024 Lees meerWith Aaron, we talk about the pivotal role of China, the evolution of the supply chain (do we have enough minerals? Spoiler Alert: Yes), the chemistries, the form factors, recycling and second life. We discuss industry consolidation among the leading suppliers. We dive into the rise of LFP, the divergence between EV and ESS industries, and the expected evolutions of technologies (sodium ion, solid state, semi solid state), Finally we debate about the prices of cells, packs and systems.
A great conversation to assess the current state of play in this ultra dynamic sector.
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Beside the Volta Foundation, the 2 must read reports which came out a few weeks agoEmber when it comes to Electricity European Electricity Review 2025
Nat Bullard when it comes to Climate and Decarbonisation
https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2025/https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
Aaron Wade is the Business Development Lead for Gaussion, enhancing battery performance through magneto-enhancement, and a project director for the Volta Foundation. He was previously the head of battery costs at CRU, helping clients understand the ever changing world of battery cost and technology. Aaron has a PhD from University College London, researching the degradation of battery chemis…
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168. "Invest where it hurts!" - Laurent at Pexapark
3 februari 2025 · 18 min
While Gerard Reid was at Davos, schmoozing with world leaders, Laurent Segalen was invited by Luca Pedretti on the Pexapark podcast. They had a conversation around where to invest in the Energy Transition.
Laurent has designed a typology of possible investments from the least desirable to the essential.
1) Aspirational
2) Shoehorn
3) Compliance
4) Profitable
5) Salvation Lees meerLaurent describes his numerous investments and how this framework has helped him deliver consequential returns.
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167. The future growth of LNG - Jan 25
27 januari 2025 · 33 min
As the price of gas and LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) becomes a key factor for the value of the world’s energy, we have decided to bring in a top gas expert to explain where the market is and how is it going to evolve.
Seb Kennedy is a leading market analyst and Founding Editor of Energy Flux (www.EnergyFlux.news), an independent newsletter that analyses global gas and LNG markets through the lens of Europe's energy transition.
We review the numerous phases that the market has faced since the beginning of the decade, COVID, post COVID, Russia-Ukraine. We delve into the incredible expansion of US Exports capacity, with 8 terminals now operational and a forecasted growth of another 50% by the end of the decade. Lees meerWe analyse how the market is inherently volatile, which make long term investment difficult but still inside a band. If the LNG gets too high, then consumers will switch; if it gets too low, then some capacity will be shelved.
We focus on Qatar, the world’s lowest cost producer, which will continue to grow no matter what. Seb anticipates a surplus in the coming years with massive extra capacities coming on the market from USA and Qatar. But the role of Iran and Russia, which hold the largest reserves, remain a huge uncertainty. Europe’s attitude towards LNG is a complex web of contradictions, between decarbonisation, security and affordability of supply, and global geopolitics.
In conclusion, a strategic source of energy, but difficult to apprehend. -
166. Green Equities Performance: Core vs Periphery - Jan 2025
13 januari 2025 · 30 min
For the first episode of 2025, Gerard and Laurent have the pleasure of welcoming Shanu Mathew. Shanu is a Senior Vice President at Lazard Asset Management and Portfolio Manager/Analyst on US Sustainable Equity. Lees meer
We are going to analyse the performance of “Cleantech” Equities throughout 2024 and discuss what to expect for 2025. Let’s be honest: 2024 was an annus horribilis for “Core” Cleantech with major indices (S&P Global Clean Energy Index) down 20%. But 2024 was also an exceptional year for “Periphery” (or adjacent) Cleantech with companies like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova being star performers.
Why such a divergence between “Core” and “Periphery”? What fundamentals are sustaining such trends? Beside interest rates, political uncertainties, competition of China, there are some green shoots that certain segments have better captured than others.
And of course, we are talking about load growth and the rise of datacenters. A rising tide lift all boats, and Core Cleantech having been so much slaughtered in recent years due to past excesses, we foresee a positive rebalancing in 2025.
Overall, a very vast panorama of how the market values the future of the Energy Transition.
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165. Our Predictions for 2025
2 januari 2025 · 27 min
Happy new year to all our listeners. It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard, Laurent and Michael present their 2025 Predictions in the Energy Transition. Lees meer
Here are the predictions that were made a year ago.
1) Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China
2) Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition
3) Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down
4) Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection
5) The return of Clean Energy shares
6) China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVsWinner for best predictions is Michael Barnard, and the loser is Laurent (as usual)
And here are our 6 predictions for 2025
1) Oil production down in the US in 2025
2) Oil prices will hit 40USD/bl in 2025
3) Geopolitics, stressed supply chains and Energy bonanza will bring a more innovative and better world
4) A bloodbath for Hydrogen in the Transportation sector
5) Record installation of Solar (700GW), EVs (20m) and Batteries (200GWh)
6) The end of all financial products labelled ESG, Climate and CarbonWe wish all our listeners an excellent year 2025 and we love you all.
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164. 2024 Wrap up: Successes, Surprises and Shocks
23 december 2024 · 18 min
Merry Christmas. This is our last Episode of the Year where Laurent and Gerard summarise what impressed them, surprised them and shocked them. AI, Hydrogen, Renewables, USA vs Europe vs China, Climate. What worked, what did not work.
2024 is a year that will be remembered at pivotal in so many aspects. We salute our friends, our influencers and unveil our book of the year: “The coming wave” by Mustafa Suleyman, not purely about Energy, but about the digital transformation that is revolutionising the world. Lees meerLaurent and Gerard wish our listeners wonderful year end celebrations and… Buckle up for 2025.
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163. Gerard is live at TedXBerlin / Welcome to the Era of Energy Disruption
16 december 2024 · 14 min
Gerard delivered a master class at TedXBerlin about the four forces driving the Energy Revolution Solar, Batteries, Electronics and China. It is called “Welcome to the Era of Energy Disruption” Lees meer
An excellent introduction for tomorrow’s world.
You can watch Gerard on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXwGvLj4rak -
162. Industrial Climate Solutions – Bridging the “Missing Middle” - Dec24
9 december 2024 · 30 min
Just Climate is a 1.5bnUSD vehicle established by Generation Investment with the mission to invest in the highest impact solutions that can radically reduce or remove emissions. They occupy the “missing middle” between VC and PE-Infra allowing growth, FOAK and deployment. Their positioning comes on the heels of VCs such as Prelude Ventures, Energy Impact Partners or Breakthrough Energy Ventures.
Laurent and Gerard invite its co-CIO, Shaun Kingsbury, the “inventor” of North Sea Offshore Wind when he was at the head of UK Green Investment Bank.
We talk about the investment thesis and its portfolio. Steel? Cement? Electro-mobility? Gerard discusses the general environment when it comes to Climate Tech (not great) and wonders if the third wave of Green Investment is not hitting a wall after years of exuberance.
Shaun concludes that there is no future for climate innovations if they don’t deliver attractive risk-adjusted financial returns. There will be short term bumps, but the long term is bright. Lees meer -
161. Northvolt - Epitaph
2 december 2024 · 17 min
Northvolt, once the poster child of the European battery industry, shocked the world last month by filling for Chapter 11 in the United States.
The Swedish battery start-up burned through billions of euros in capital from investors such as Volkswagen, Goldman Sachs, and others, with little to show for it. Laurent and Gerard conduct a postmortem on this debacle of epic proportions.
With access to confidential sources within the company and its supply chain, they arrived at the same conclusions as Robin Zheng, CEO of CATL—the world’s leading battery manufacturer—who stated: “They have the wrong design, the wrong process, and the wrong equipment. How can they scale up? So almost all mistakes together.”
The root causes of Northvolt’s failure? Hubris and culture. What’s next for the European battery industry? It’s time to face reality: partner with the best or risk failure.
Northvolt’s collapse is a tragedy for its believers and a costly loss for investors. However, the industry continues to grow at a breakneck pace, and with pragmatism, there is a path forward. Lees meer -
160. Financing the Residential Energy Transition - Nov24
25 november 2024 · 31 min
Deploying solar and heat pumps in the residential sector is all well and good, but many attempts to scale have unfortunately failed.
Beyond the king Octopus, Simon Phelan and his company Hometree have managed to become an unlikely challenger in the deployment of the Energy transition inside home. And Simon has achieved this feat by flipping the system onto his head.
Hometree is a company that offers its customers home emergency breakdown insurance, plus installations and financing for energy efficient hardware. The achievements of Hometree are truly remarkable: 100,000 homes covered, a network 5,000 engineers, 100mEUR VC raised (Legal & General, Blackrock), 400mEUR securitisation of behind the meter asset portfolio (Barclays and CPPIB).
How has the Hometree system cracked the code of home energy decarbonisation?
They don’t “push” a product or a technology, they “pull” the client towards the best decarbonised solution. It starts with insurance, making sure that your heating system always work and thus creating long term relationships with clients.
Then comes the financing with fully wrapped solutions that lower the prices; the financing is then securitised to investors. And it is a good risk. Finally, having boots on the ground to serve clients to repair, maintain or build.
The eco-system is so versatile and powerful that all Utilities are looking to partner with Hometree … in the secret hope of staying relevant against the Octopus juggernaut. We call Hometree: “the Best of the Rest”. Lees meer -
159. Live from Baku Cop29. Inside the Zone: Chaos, Shock and Hope
18 november 2024 · 14 min
Laurent goes live to Baku COP29 to discuss with Bruce “Almighty” Douglas, CEO Global Renewable Alliance and tireless promoter of Renewable Energy.
He is the one who coins the famous “Triple Renewables” rallying cry, and has been rewarded by joining the precious list of TIME 100 Climate leaders.
With Bruce, Laurent dives into COP. Shambolic, Rudderless and Essential nevertheless. The world of renewables is at the centre stage, dealing with diplomats who are doing politics without a calculator while policy makers are busy inventing more alphabet soup concepts while ignoring geopolitics.
COP is the summary of the world’s contradictions. COPs are useless and irreplaceable at the same time. Lees meer -
158. COP – Resilience or Irrelevance?
11 november 2024 · 29 min
As COP29 begins, the ripple effects of the re-election of Donald Trump are reaching the shores of the Caspian Sea. Lees meer
COP28 welcomed 85,000 delegates, within which a significant contingent of Oil lobbyists. COP29 is supposed to be the “Finance COP”, whatever that means, but all major head of states will not participate.
What to expect from COP29? Are COP still useful? Is it the correct format? Who is really committed and who is just paying lip service to fighting Climate Change?
Those questions and more with Lord Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) a global coalition of companies committed to achieving a net zero global economy by 2050. Lord Turner is a leading British businessman and academic, former Chairman of the Financial Services Authority (2008-13). From 2008-2012 Lord Turner was the first chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee.
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157. Mobile batteries, the ultimate flexibility - Nov24
4 november 2024 · 26 min
First, Gerard is sorry, he couldn’t make it as he was on a ship in the Irish Sea, and his Starlink wouldn’t connect. So, it is just Laurent interviewing a young superstar, Peter Paul van Voorst, CEO of the mobile battery management platform Skoon. Lees meer
Skoon, based in Rotterdam, is now seven years old and manages more than 1,000 mobile batteries in 14 countries. Mobile batteries range from 1kw to 1MW and are either on trailers or inside 10ft containers.
With Peter Paul, Laurent analyses this new segment of the Storage market. How did the technology evolve, what are the established use-cases (Construction, Film sets, Events) but also the new ones (Support to distribution networks).
In recent years, not only has the hardware evolved (widespread use of LFP), but there has been an absolute revolution in the software layers, from BMS (Battery Management System) to EMS (Energy Management System) to now the overall fleet management. Those progresses are not only from a technical perspective but also from an economic and environmental perspectives.
How this whole system works, grows and provide immense services to the Electrification of the Economy by providing the ultimate flexibility (time and space).
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156. Zeroing in on Electrification with Eurelectric
28 oktober 2024 · 21 min
Gerard and Laurent welcome Kristian Ruby, secretary general of Eurelectric, about their new report entitled “Power Barometer – Zeroing in on Electrification”. Lees meer
To quote the IEA, we enter in the “Age of Electrification” where electrification rate is going to accelerate significantly.
We have an extensive conversation about the good news (growth of renewables, energy security progress in response to Russian aggression) and the not so good news (flat demand, as the new power usages – transportation, heating – don’t grow as fast as anticipated; demand reduction or destruction). We discuss the impact of counterproductive taxation of various sources of energy, European competitiveness, the development of behind the meter energy as well as great initiatives such as the North Sea Wind Power Hub”.
A very rich state of play.
And Gerard apologises for the poor quality of his audio as he was in car driving in France while carrying his precious collection of rare whiskies from Berlin to Dublin.
Link to Eurelectric report: Power Barometer – Zeroing in
https://powerbarometer.eurelectric.org/Join us at the Energy Storage Awards 2024
https://storageawards.solarenergyevents.com/ -
155. VPP & DER - Oct24
21 oktober 2024 · 29 min
What are VPP? Virtual Power Plants. What are DER? Distributed Energy Resources? Lees meer
As the grid becomes more intermittent while the load is growing, those VPP/DER platforms provide a critical role by shedding demand, sometimes for a few minutes, to alleviate stress on the Grids.
VPPs can avoid starting polluting peakers via pre-agreed and targeted demand reduction, shift consumption via batteries and even act in in Frequency response market. And System Operators are willing to pay a decent price to have access to those resources.That is the mission of Dana Guernsey. Dana is the CEO of Voltus, a Boulder-CO based leading DER technology platform and virtual power plant operator connecting distributed energy resources to electricity markets. As interconnection queues lengthen and capacity cost explode, are we on the dawn of a crazy development of VPPs.
Dana explains that while working for Walmart or fleet of Electric School buses, she can reduce Voltus’ clients power bills by up to 20% while keeping their core services unchanged. We are going to talk about technology, heating and cooling management, AI… and lasagna.
A deep dive into the future.
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VERY IMPORTANT: We are doing a Q&A Episode in November
Ask us whatever you want!!!Send your questions: info@redefining-energy.com
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154. The people driving the EV revolution
14 oktober 2024 · 19 min
While Gerard is doing his rock star concert at TedTalk Berlin, Laurent has invited an old friend, Roger Atkins, Top Voice on EVs to discuss the people behind the EV revolution. Lees meer
Roger has a 40 year career in the Auto industry (half of them in EVs) and his cowboy hat makes him a fixture of great EV shows around the world. Roger talk about his encounters with Robin Zeng - CEO CATL, Wang Chuanfu – founder BYD, Elon Musk, Jack Cheng - co-founder NIO, Bob Galyen – ex GM and CTO CATL, Li Shufu – founder Geely and a lot of other formidable people pushing the EV revolution.
We also talk about the people we admire Michael Dunne, Robert Llewellyn and Simon Moores. Thanks to them, we see clearer.
And in EVs as in any sector, culture eats policy every morning for breakfast.
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VERY IMPORTANT: We are doing a Q&A Episode in November
Ask us whatever you want!!!Send your questions: info@redefining-energy.com
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153. The Battery-coaster - Oct24
7 oktober 2024 · 26 min
The battery infrastructure is currently growing 3x faster than the solar industry. Records are beaten daily: in August 2024, for the first time, Chinese battery factories passed the 100GWh production mark. We are seeing industry giants consolidate their leadership while hopes of alternative technologies or promising start ups are being squashed. Lees meer
The prices are collapsing monthly, partly due to cheaper inputs, technological improvements and larger volumes, not dissimilar to what happened in recent years to the solar industry. Is LFP the winning chemistry or is there still a future for NMC?
Laurent and Gerard bring Dr Engelke, Chair of Battery Associates, to try to make sense of it all. This young German company has been developing a world class expertise and how uses it to train the future work force is how to build a Gigafactory and how to optimize it. With clients like Tesla, VW and CATL, Battery Associates is in the thick of it. GenZ is defying all politicians by creating a transnational spirit of collaboration between Continents to promote a faster and more efficient future.
Because in the end, it is all about Human Capital. China has benefited from our technology for decades, let’s not be shy and emulate their playbook. It will be more efficient in the long term than lobbying regulators, whine and ask for tariffs and subsidies. Despite the roller coaster, never forget that in a fast-growing market, short term demand is generally overstated, while long term demand is generally understated.
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We don’t often recommend other podcasts/YouTube (I know we should). If you are interested in Batteries, please listen/view this interview of Robin Zheng, CEO of CATL.
Really fascinating
https://youtu.be/5VIXjjw4u9A?si=enaf8fls2F82YxoX
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/catl-ceo-founder-robin-zeng-the-journey-to-market/id1614211565?i=1000669887553