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980 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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OI25: What If Lower Volatility Is the Wrong Goal ft. Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin
4 november 2026 · 52 min
Moritz Seibert is joined by QuantEdge CEO Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin to explore how one of Singapore’s most successful systematic firms approaches risk, diversification and long-term compounding. Suhaimi explains why QuantEdge deliberately runs at a much higher volatility than most institutional portfolios, how the firm combines hundreds of independent risk premia across equities, bonds, commodities and insurance-linked securities, and why diversification should create room to take more risk rather than simply reduce it. They also discuss capacity, investor lockups, portfolio rebalancing and the lessons QuantEdge learned from surviving both the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID market shock. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Suhaimi on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:07 - How QuantEdge grew from $3 million to nearly $8 billion
07:29 - Why QuantEdge doesn’t fit neatly into the CTA bucket
09:10 - How risk premia create returns across markets
11:20 - Systematically investing in insurance-linked securities
15:18 - Building a portfolio from hundreds of independent bets
20:32 - Why QuantEdge targets around 25% volatility
25:24 - Where the firm’s returns have actually come from
27:06 - How the strategy evolved from 50 markets to nearly 300
29:34 - How muc…
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SI424: Can Your Portfolio Survive the AI Hangover? ft. Alan Dunne
31 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 6 min
How resilient is your portfolio if stocks and bonds fall together? Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to examine what stock–bond correlations can conceal and why owning more assets may leave investors exposed to the same risks. They explore how an AI boom could unravel, what that might mean for debt and monetary policy, and how trend following can help portfolios adapt without forecasting the next crisis. The conversation also tackles the patience diversification demands when equities race ahead, and whether greater resilience can improve long-term compounding. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Alan’s radar
15:17 - Trend following performance and manager dispersion
20:27 - The Fed’s new approach and what it means for markets
26:50 - What happens if the AI boom eventually unwinds?
35:26 - Why stock-bond correlation is more complicated than it looks
43:42 - Can trend following help diversify the bond side of 60/40?
46:23 - The economic scenarios that could hurt stocks and bonds together
49:57 - How to diversify without trying to predict the next regime
54:27 - What does portfolio resilience actually mean?
01:00:44 - Can a more resilient portfolio also deliver better returns?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG…
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GM109: Why Buffett Finally Went All In on Japan ft. Andrew McDermott
28 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Alan Dunne is joined by Mission Value Partners founder Andrew McDermott to challenge some of the conventional thinking around Japan. Andrew argues that Japan’s supposed “lost decades” look very different when viewed beyond GDP and stock market performance, and that its emphasis on manufacturing, engineering and long-term resilience may now be becoming a major advantage. They discuss the consequences of financialization in the US and Europe, Japan’s role in semiconductors, robotics and AI, and why Warren Buffett’s move into Japanese equities matters. The conversation also explores public debt, domestic capital flows and why Japan could play a much larger role in the global economy ahead. For those who are quick, check out this event featuring Andrew McDermott as well as last weeks guest Jesper Koll: https://mvpnashjapan.up.railway.app/ Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Mission Value Partners on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Andrew’s path into Japan investing
05:05 - Why Andrew thinks Japan’s capitalism works better
11:32 - Manufacturing, industrial policy and the return of real investment
15:10 - Why investors may have misunderstood Japan for decades
19:56 - Is the era of financialization starting to reverse?
24:52 - AI, machine…
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SI423: Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race ft. Mark Rzepczynski
24 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 14 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may represent a return to normal rather than an anomaly, how declining safe-haven benefits could reshape government debt, and why geopolitical fragmentation may increase divergence across markets. Mark also examines commodity shortages and the conditions that can produce explosive price moves. Finally, they turn to AI and machine learning, asking whether increasingly similar quantitative models are shortening the life of alpha and why trend following may prove unusually durable in an increasingly crowded investment landscape. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why trend following may be different in the age of machine learning
02:09 - France, rising yields and changing perceptions of safe assets
07:27 - Trend following performance and a changing bond market
16:29 - Why the structure and participants of markets matter
20:26 - Liquidity, capital flows and the plumbing behind financial crises
27:58 - Globalization, capital flows and the role of the dollar
35:33 - Crises, market upheavals and commodity supercycles
37:32 - Why today’s higher…
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GM108: Maybe Japan Is Finally Changing for Real ft. Jesper Koll
21 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 3 min
Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Jesper on Substack.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and the optimistic case for Japan
02:10 - How Jesper built a career around Japan
04:12 - Why Japan’s underlying strengths are often overlooked
07:12 - Demographics, labor scarcity and rising productivity
11:04 - Why Jesper doesn’t see Japan’s debt as a crisis
13:34 - Is Japanese capital finally coming back home?
17:15 - Takaichi, industrial policy and the next phase after Abenomics
22:17 - Why the Bank of Japan may start moving faster
25:46 - The yen, carry trades a…
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SI422: Why Trend Following Rewards Patience ft. Katy Kaminski
17 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 9 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Katy's radar
06:16 - Why 2026 looks very different from 2022 for trend followers
11:12 - Geopolitical risk, inflation and Katie’s Copenhagen presentation
17:50 - Why today’s environment could challenge traditional portfolios
21:55 - What happens when bonds start behaving badly
28:46 - Why rules-based strategies can adapt when markets change
31:46 - Rethinking crisis alpha for an inflationary world
41:56 - Co…
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UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
14 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 10 min
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and why the bond market matters again
02:13 - How the AI boom changed the market regime
06:41 - Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable?
10:38 - An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble?
17:18 - What happens if earnings start to mean revert
22:15 - When the stock market starts driving the economy
28:55 - Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities
38:39 - Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high?
42:21 - Why equity volatility looks u…
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SI421: Taking CTAs Mainstream ft. Andrew Beer
10 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 18 min
How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why portfolios may need a more tactical approach
01:04 - AI, entrepreneurship and the changing world of work
08:07 - Complex systems and why the future is so difficult to predict
09:47 - Trend following performance and what is driving returns
13:59 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio is being questioned
16:20 - The problem with long-term asset allocation assumptions
22:41 - Diversification, market timing and the historical advantage of bonds
27:01 - What 27 years of managed futures data tells us
31:51 - Crisis alpha across the dot-com crash, GFC and 2022
36:08 - Correlat…
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IL54: Why Smart Investors Keep Making Crazy Decisions ft. Alex Edmans
7 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 1 min
In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Alex on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Alex Edmans’ new book The Madness of Markets
02:46 - How football results can move stock markets
07:16 - What Spotify playlists can tell us about investor sentiment
11:28 - Why individual investors may have an advantage over professionals
16:26 - Specialists, generalists and finding your investing edge
21:59 - When benchmarks make active managers too conservative
26:18 - Risk, alpha and the equity premium puzzle
30:07 - Why momentum works and when it crashes
35:35 - Where individual investors can…
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SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan
3 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming
00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar
03:34 - A strong year for trend following
05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher?
09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries
12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically
18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market?
19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainabili…
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TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton
30 september 2026 · 1 uur 7 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They also explore capacity, changing market regimes and why investor behavior may ultimately matter more than finding the perfect strategy. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Find out more about DUNN Capital.
Follow Patrick on LinkedIn.
Episode Timestamps:
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and…
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SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas
26 september 2026 · 1 uur 6 min
Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention
01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 500
04:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world
08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following
12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike
15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive?
20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us
23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction
25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in adva…
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OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock
23 september 2026 · 1 uur
Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating the process of turning raw talent into real trading ability. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Cory on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade
01:03 - Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy
04:35 - How US power markets actually work
08:21 - PJM and the changing US electricity mix
11:07 - Why North America effectively has three separate power grids
14:42 - What a power trader actually trades
19:40 - Why electricity trading never really stops
21:48 - Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather
28:13 - Why power markets remain so attractive to traders
30:37 - What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like
33:50 - Th…
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SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan
19 september 2026 · 1 uur 16 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking profits too early can be costly, and why responding to markets may ultimately matter more than predicting them. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why trend following’s edge may have moved rather than disappeared
03:26 - What three years of research revealed about trend following
06:50 - Why big trends and outliers are structural features of markets
11:35 - Trend following performance and what’s moving markets
16:49 - Should trend followers ever take profits early?
21:03 - What the Santa Fe Institute can teach us about markets
25:51 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems
29:46 - Reflexivity and how investors help create market outcomes
35:18 - Why…
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IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth
16 september 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market
00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt
03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history
07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market
12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability
17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset
24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countri…
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SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver
12 september 2026 · 1 uur 8 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break
02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds
05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends
07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF?
14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies
17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets
20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far
23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize?
31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together?
…
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GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein
9 september 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged
01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed
05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s
11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?
15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?
18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy?
21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust
26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise
31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be …
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SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git
5 september 2026 · 1 uur 14 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar
01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust
06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency
10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity
12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update
16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds
19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer
21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk
25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process
2…
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GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth
2 september 2026 · 1 uur 24 min
Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy. Lees meer
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else
01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth
04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve
09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?
16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean
18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy
25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?
31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures…
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SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne
29 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 7 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction. Lees meer
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar
01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters
07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question
08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention
12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed
16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply
18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?
22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning
24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the…
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IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth
26 augustus 2026 · 47 min
In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset. Lees meer
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors
01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing
06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional
10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting mark…
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SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski
22 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 14 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer. Lees meer
-----
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections
01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets
07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk
10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes
13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks
14:51 - August trend following performance
16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends
20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity
27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?
31:56 - The plumbing …
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ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle
19 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Lees meer
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing
04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world
07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed
12:09 The return of fiscal activism
15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital
19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy?
22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates
25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble
29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime
33:35 Private market…
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SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
15 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 22 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders. Lees meer
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania
02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment
06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow
08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 2026
10:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing
14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience
17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance
22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape
24:48 - Active commodity strate…
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ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau
12 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy and the risks that could define the next phase of the investment cycle. Lees meer
-----
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Charles on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Charles-Henry Monchau's path into investing
03:49 - The new geopolitical order and global investing
09:02 - Is artificial intelligence inflationary or deflationary?
12:49 - The AI CapEx supercycle and future market winners
18:41 - Are markets in an earnings bubble?
21:27 - Capital spending, debt issuance and market liquidity
25:22 - Sovereign debt and the future of asset allocation
28:13 - Gold, fiscal dominance and reserve currencies
32:27 - Kevin Warsh and the future of the Federal Reserve
40:36 - China's inno…
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SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore
8 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 20 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Harry on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments
09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review
18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance
22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience
30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research
36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters
46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks
56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios
58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules
01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following
01…
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ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai
5 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 1 min
Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing uncertainty and creating an investment process that can endure through changing market environments. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Paul on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why better investment decisions start with diverse thinking
01:02 - Paul Chai's journey from engineering to institutional investing
04:50 - Managing a perpetual endowment for future generations
08:48 - Building resilient strategic asset allocations
11:54 - The advantages of managing a $1.2 billion endowment
15:29 - Portfolio construction beyond the traditional 60/40 model
20:57 - Strategic asset allocation versus total portfolio investing
24:05 - Lessons from the Yale Endowment model
26:26 - …
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SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan
1 augustus 2026 · 2 uur
The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Follow David on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge
08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems
18:49 - Price insensitive investors and the hidden drivers of markets
26:03 - How market participants create fat tails and volatility
31:38 - Where major market moves really come from
39:05 - Ergodicit…
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IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed
29 juli 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Tyler on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks
00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history
06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age
13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions
18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think
21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows
27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history
30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions
35:31 - Government intervention a…
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SI410: The Next Evolution of Trend Following ft. Nick Baltas
25 juli 2026 · 1 uur 11 min
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of information without losing the discipline that has defined the strategy for decades. Lees meer
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - AI, memories and the changing pace of innovation
06:32 - How investment firms are integrating artificial intelligence
13:01 - CTA performance and the trend following environment
20:34 - Expanding the market universe for trend followers
28:17 - Building the perfect hedge with trend following
34:25 - Portable alpha and leveraging trend strategies
37:44 - Introducing thematic investing and missing factors
44:59 - How narratives create momentum in financial markets
50:43 - Measuring thematic strength versus price momentum
58:41 - Can t…
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OI23: Why Capital Efficiency Is the Next Edge in Investing ft. Charlie McGarraugh
22 juli 2026 · 47 min
Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charlie explains why adaptive portfolios, capital efficiency and smarter position sizing may become the defining advantages for the next generation of macro investors. They explore the rise of managed futures ETFs, China's growing futures markets, the trade off between diversification and simplicity, and why portfolio construction often matters more than finding the next predictive signal. It is a thoughtful conversation about where systematic investing may be heading next. Lees meer
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why position sizing may matter more than return prediction
01:03 - Charlie McGarra's journey from Goldman Sachs to Altis Partners
09:03 - The history of Altis Partners and its evolution beyond trend following
11:19 - Building a multi factor macro strategy around trend
16:02 - Why adaptive investing is becoming increasingly important
21:49 - The growth of managed futures ETFs and reaching new investors
25:27 - Designing ETFs for diversification and capital efficiency
30:30 - Why Chinese commodity futures offer unique opportunities
40:4…
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SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git
18 juli 2026 · 1 uur 9 min
Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex. Lees meer
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations
06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns
12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning
18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals
25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure
36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets
39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained
47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from
55:06 - Narrative m…
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GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg
15 juli 2026 · 1 uur 16 min
More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics
09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets
15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading
21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets
31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected
37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications
43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals
48:12 - The outlook for oi…
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SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne
11 juli 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing
05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading
12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers
15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story
20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy
30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following
38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following
46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and …
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GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley
8 juli 2026 · 56 min
The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the assumptions investors hold about money, banking and monetary policy. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny
00:57 - Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history
06:36 - How studying financial history changed his view of economics
11:38 - The hidden difference between big money and small money
17:43 - How the dollar existed before the United States
26:40 - Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency
29:36 - The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation
34:53 - What really supports the dollar's global dominance
40:09 - Could global finance s…
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SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan
4 juli 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries
03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets
07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy
09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs
15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism
19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system
30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage
37:52 - AI …
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GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren
1 juli 2026 · 1 uur 20 min
While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan, she explores how artificial intelligence, advanced energy, shifting diplomacy and technological innovation could reshape the global economy and even reduce the risk of war. From the future of the US dollar and China to nuclear energy, robotics and non human intelligence, this conversation challenges conventional thinking and offers an unusually optimistic perspective on one of the most consequential periods in modern history. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why Pippa believes the future is far more optimistic than most expect
01:05 - Reuniting after four years and revisiting major geopolitical themes
03:11 - Digital finance, transparency and the changing role of the US Treasury
06:40 - Ukraine, foreign policy and the debate over hidden funding networks
12:01 - Why Pippa believes the world is moving toward a superpower rapprochement
22:17 - The US dollar, China and competing visions of global leadership
30:49 - Lessons from history, diplomacy and the search for lasting peace
39:38 - Nuclear …
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SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski
27 juni 2026 · 1 uur 8 min
Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan
05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 1994
10:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns
14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough
20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year
23:10 - What defines a market regime change
27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities
39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers
48:28 - Research into …
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IL50: Why Central Banks Are Losing Control of Inflation ft. Manoj Pradhan
24 juni 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Manoj Pradhan returns to Top Traders Unplugged to explain why the forces that kept inflation and interest rates low for decades are now reversing. Drawing on themes from The Great Demographic Reversal and his new book The Unanchored Central Banker, he argues that aging populations, labor shortages, rising fiscal deficits, and the changing role of central banks are creating a very different macroeconomic landscape. The conversation explores why demographics matter more than many models assume, whether AI can offset labor shortages, and why central banks may increasingly be forced to choose between controlling inflation and maintaining fiscal stability. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why demographics matter for inflation and central banks
03:05 - The demographic sweet spot that lowered inflation and rates
06:28 - Why labor supply is now reversing
12:15 - Global birth rates and the replacement rate problem
17:03 - The fiscal blind spot in conventional economic models
20:31 - Housing, urbanization, and real interest rates
27:03 - Can AI offset labor shortages?
37:24 - Policy ideas to increase labor supply and manage aging
45:40 - Why central banks may become “unanchored…
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SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver
20 juni 2026 · 1 uur 12 min
Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether investors should chase the strongest trends, how different asset classes contribute to returns across market cycles, and why overfitting remains one of the biggest dangers in systematic investing. They also discuss the rise of AI generated trading strategies, the debate around perpetual futures, the changing role of economic data, and what diversification really means when markets become driven by a handful of dominant forces. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and summer optimism in the UK
02:10 - Middle East developments, SpaceX and the new Fed Chair
06:13 - Concerns about economic data and market transparency
10:38 - Trend following performance and current market positioning
14:39 - How Rob evaluates strategies and portfolio construction
19:57 - The factor zoo and true sources of return
22:37 - What trend following adds beyond traditional risk premia
29:54 - The rise of perpetual futures and exchange concerns
42:35 - Quantica research on trend performance across asset classes
55:01 - Why commodities have become a dominan…
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GM102: China Built a Trap. Germany Set It. America Fell In. Europe Is Next ft. Michael Pettis
17 juni 2026 · 1 uur 23 min
Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial history, Pettis argues that persistent trade surpluses are ultimately rooted in domestic income imbalances rather than national competitiveness. The discussion explores why China struggles to rebalance, why Europe may face its biggest challenge yet, and how US reindustrialization could reshape global trade. From Bretton Woods to modern tariffs, this episode offers a provocative framework for understanding the forces driving the next phase of the global economy. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead
01:07 - Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics
06:34 - Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances
09:59 - Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances
17:22 - Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression
27:48 - China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult
35:54 - Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit?
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SI404: When Trend Following Meets Equities ft. Eric Crittenden & Andrew Beer
13 juni 2026 · 1 uur 8 min
Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversation, Andrew Beer and Eric Crittenden explore why that gap exists and how combining trend following with equities may create a more durable portfolio. Together with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss the rise of managed futures ETFs, the debate between simplicity and complexity in systematic investing, and why algorithmic discipline allows investors to act when intuition fails. The episode also examines portfolio construction, product design and the evolving role of alternatives in a changing investment landscape. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series and the week's guests
02:19 - Eric reflects on recent market trends and challenging periods for trend followers
03:15 - Andrew shares optimism about AI, innovation and technological progress
06:25 - Elon Musk, SpaceX and the future of technological disruption
09:22 - The evolution of managed futures ETFs and the growing demand for alternative strategies
15:58 - How ETF liquidity works and why portfolio construction matters
19:4…
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UGO12: Why the Next Financial Crisis Could Change America Forever ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth
10 juni 2026 · 54 min
As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth to explore the growing tensions between inflation, debt, financialization, and political pressure. From the future of quantitative easing and Treasury market risks to the rise of populism and the long term consequences of decades of intervention, this conversation examines whether the United States is approaching a turning point that could redefine the relationship between markets, government, and the Federal Reserve. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters
02:25 - Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve
05:13 - The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers
07:52 - Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing?
10:00 - Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy
17:53 - Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s
23:02 - Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability
29:27 - Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook
37:34 - Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government de…
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SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski
6 juni 2026 · 1 uur 24 min
Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series
01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy
05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets
11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines
15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026
23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios
33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes
44:08 - …
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ALO35: Why Macro Investing Is Becoming More Systematic ft. George Patterson
3 juni 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, to explore the evolution of systematic investing from the 1990s to today’s AI driven landscape. They discuss regime detection, inflation risk, portfolio construction, machine learning, private markets, volatility overlays and the growing role of language models in investment research. George also shares insights from decades in quant investing, including lessons from Covid, the importance of model discipline and why communication skills matter as much as technical expertise. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to George Patterson and his journey from physics to quantitative investing
03:12 - Why multidisciplinary teams matter in modern quant investing
04:13 - Inside PGIM Quant Solutions and the evolution of multi asset investing
06:03 - How markets and macro investing have changed since the 1990s
09:12 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio and institutional portfolio construction
12:11 - Private markets, liquidity challenges and institutional investor concerns
13:25 - Inflation, commodities and buildi…
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SI402: Why Markets Can’t Stop Trending ft. Richard Brennan
30 mei 2026 · 1 uur 31 min
What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volatility suppression, and the hidden forces reshaping modern market structure. From structured products and reflexive flows to demographics, trend following, and the fragile illusion of equilibrium, this conversation asks whether markets are becoming more unstable precisely because investors believe they have become safer. A thoughtful and layered discussion about why price discovery may be weakening, why trends persist, and why systematic strategies may be more relevant in a world increasingly shaped by feedback loops. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the episode and overview of today’s discussion
02:22 - Richard Brennan breaks down passive investing through the lens of complex adaptive systems
06:51 - What “complex adaptive systems” actually means in markets
14:53 - Why passive investing changes market structure without individual investors realizing it
24:06 - Niels discusses structured products, volatility suppression, and market fragility
29:23 - How demographic shifts could eventually reshape passive investing trends
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IL49: The Space Economy Is No Longer Science Fiction ft. Rainer Zitelmann
27 mei 2026 · 1 uur 1 min
On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars. We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially successful but also why the future of space exploration, and the space economy, will be driven by private companies. Dr. Zitelmann explains what he believes to be the key driver of unlocking the economic potential of space and why it’s conceivable that ventures such as space tourism, orbital data centers and asteroid mining might be listed on the stock exchange. This is a conversation for everyone who wants an early look at an industry that is about to “take off”! Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rainer on Instagram and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why incentives may explain why humans stopped going to the moon
01:07 - Kevin introduces Dr. Rainer Zitelmann and New Space Capitalism
02:47 - How childhood fascination with space led to a lifelong interest
05:45 - Why Apollo succeeded and why it may have been a historical exception
09:22 - The Space Shuttle program and the limits of government-led innovation
13:50 - How SpaceX changed the economics of launch services
20:32 - Why private property rights may be essential for space …
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SI401: Why Trend Following Wins in Chaos ft. Nick Baltas
23 mei 2026 · 1 uur 1 min
The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction to the episode
01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility
03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026
06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies
10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS?
15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS
17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies
24:15 – Can hedge funds front …
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GM101: When Passive Breaks the Market ft. Hari Krishnan & Cem Karsan
20 mei 2026 · 1 uur 14 min
Hari Krishnan joins Niels and Cem for a deep exploration of what happens when markets become dominated by flows rather than fundamentals. Drawing on his new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm, Hari explains why rising passive ownership may weaken price discovery, amplify concentration in mega-cap stocks and create conditions for reflexive instability. The conversation expands far beyond indexing, touching on volatility targeting, leverage, dispersion, inflation, government intervention and the growing dependence of the global economy on rising asset prices. Along the way, Cem and Hari debate whether policymakers can continue stabilizing an increasingly fragile system, what could trigger a structural break, and how investors should think about positioning in a world where flows may matter more than fundamentals. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Hari on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Hari warns about a fragile financial system dependent on a handful of decision-makers
01:06 - Niels introduces Hari’s new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm
03:00 - Why passive investing may weaken the link between fundamentals and prices
08:40 - The key assumptions behind the model
12:49 - How passive adoption accelerated structural market changes
15:11 - Cem …
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SI400: When Crisis Alpha Hides in Plain Sight ft. Yoav Git & Rob Croce
16 mei 2026 · 1 uur 7 min
This week, we are joined by Yoav Git and Rob Croce from Fidelity Investments for a deep dive into trend following, portfolio construction and execution in modern markets. The conversation explores why crisis alpha may come more from beta timing than market selection, the logic behind betting against beta, and how quantitative investors think about diversification, carry and relative value strategies. Along the way, the trio discuss Japan’s rising bond yields, momentum investing, execution risk during crises and even how ChatGPT helped solve a 60-year-old mathematical problem. This is a technical but highly practical discussion about how systematic investors build robust portfolios in a changing macro environment. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn and read his paper.
Follow Yoav on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:57 - Rob Croce’s path from economics to managed futures and trend following
04:38 - Yoav on AI-assisted mathematics and solving a 60-year-old problem
06:14 - Rob on out-of-sample testing and learning from market structure
11:42 - Rising Japanese bond yields and the global bond market backdrop
12:39 - Momentum investing and the growing popularity of trend-based strategies
17:04 - Current trend following environment across equities, bonds and commodities…