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980 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft. Rob Carver
3 oktober 2021 · 1 uur 4 min
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules. Lees meer
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In this episode, we discuss:
Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently
How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness
Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures
How to raise AUM when starting a new firm
The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin
Adding parameters to a system
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes
03:03 - Macro recap from Niels
05:43 - Weekly review of returns
12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks
21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or wor…
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SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft. Richard Brennan
26 september 2021 · 1 uur 8 min
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns
Compounding wealth as a systematic investor
How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times
Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on
How investment terms can often create communication barriers
Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:25 – Macro recap from Niels
04:10 – Weekly review of performance
11:35 –…
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SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft. Mark Rzepczynski
19 september 2021 · 1 uur 31 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player. Lees meer
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone
How to spot future star performers in advance
Unconventional approaches to market correlations
The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients
Why investors tend to copy their peers
Whether fund size matters to capital allocators
How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00…
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SI157: How to Make Money & Survive in the Markets ft. Jerry Parker
13 september 2021 · 1 uur 6 min
Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon. Lees meer
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
The case for longer-term strategies
Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition
How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustness
Why Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the future
How to prevent cyber attacks
Why you can't always rely on past correlations to continue
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:32 - A big thank you to our listeners for…
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SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft. Moritz Seibert
6 september 2021 · 1 uur 5 min
Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial
Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable
Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods
Some good measures for monitoring risk
Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing
Suitable backtesting software for retail investors
How to approach negative interest rates with your broker
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts
03:21 - Macro recap from Niels
05:38 - Weekly review of returns
18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests
26:42 - Q1 & Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to …
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SI155: How to Create the Perfect Backtest ft. Richard Brennan
29 augustus 2021 · 1 uur 29 min
This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following
Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live
The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers
Leverage, margin, & total portfolio risk-to-stop
What information to look for in a backtest
How to avoid 'curve-fitting' (and could some curve-fitting be beneficial?)
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:25 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leavi…
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SI154: Defining 'Outliers' from a Trend Follower's Perspective ft. Richard Brennan
22 augustus 2021 · 1 uur 5 min
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs
How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers'
The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system
Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification'
Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes
Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions
Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared'
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:31 – Macro recap from Niels
11:17 – Weekly review of performance
17:10 – Q1; Adam: At what point does diversification become dilution?
22:32 – Q2; Mathew: Have there ever been any years where currencies were your …
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SI153: Being Aware of Known & Unknown Risks ft. Mark Rzepczynski
15 augustus 2021 · 1 uur 11 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of
How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system
The true definitions of liquidity
Futures markets as the most liquid in the world
Why a rules-based approach to the markets is so important
The 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement
Trend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:24 – A massive thank you to listeners of t…
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SI152: Love Your Rules, But Not Your Positions ft. Jerry Parker
8 augustus 2021 · 1 uur 16 min
Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns. Lees meer
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures
Thoughts on autocorrelation
The benefits of trading a wide range of markets
How over-optimisation can result in underperformance
Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmental
Why your rules are more important than any one position
How decreasing position size can increase a system's profits
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
04:11 - Macro recap from Niels
04:44 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star revi…
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SI151 Long-Term Profitability vs Short-Term Luck ft. Moritz Seibert
1 augustus 2021 · 1 uur 1 min
Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
How effective Backtests can be
Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets
Ethereum futures
Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded
Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy
Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system
How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:44 - Macro recap from Niels
04:41 - Weekly review of returns
10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models
13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?
…
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SI150: Extracting Edges from the Market ft. Richard Brennan
25 juli 2021 · 1 uur 7 min
This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategy
How to profit across multiple timeframes
How momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methods
Average win rate versus average loss rate
Why inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investors
Trailing stops and risk management
How many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:31 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:18 – Macro recap from Niels
04:23 – Weekly review of performance
10:24 – Q1; Kushro: Is there a way for the novice rules-based investor to reliably backtest their rules?
12:40 – Q2 & …
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SI149: Model Anxiety & Algorithm Aversion ft. Mark Rzepczynski
18 juli 2021 · 1 uur 8 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
How behavioural finance leaves investors under-allocated to Trend Following strategies
How to perceive momentum data
Why the steady flow of market news often has little value for Trend Followers
Embracing simplicity
The need to avoid too many filters in your system
How much should be risked per trade
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
03:02 – Macro recap from Niels
04:48 – Weekly review of performance
11:59 – Q1; James: What are your views on momentum indicators diverging against price action?
24:56 – Q2; Frank: What is your view on th…
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SI148: The Importance of Capturing A Few Large Trends ft. Jerry Parker
11 juli 2021 · 1 uur 9 min
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends. Lees meer
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes
02:02 - Macro recap from Niels
12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy?
31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’?
40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer?
47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns
50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance
58:11 - How ne…
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SI147: The Perfect Exit Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert
4 juli 2021 · 1 uur 4 min
Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possible
Optimal exits from hugely profitable trades
How to engage in related to your investment approach
Over complicating a trading strategy
Acceptable margin amounts
Spread-trading using a Trend Following strategy
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:28 - Macro recap from Niels
03:53 - Weekly review of returns
11:01 - The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber
14:32 - Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure? What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it?
29:20 - Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods?
34:13 - Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the …
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SI146: The Trend Following Mindset ft. Rob Carver
28 juni 2021 · 1 uur 30 min
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes. Lees meer
You can read some of Rob’s work here.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Trend Following as a solution to rising inflation
The major stock indices being of composed of mainly companies are losing money
Trend Following on ETFs
Predicting future returns using current risk exposure
Retail traders versus professional money managers
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 …
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SI145: The 3 D's of Inflation ft. Mark Rzepczynski
20 juni 2021 · 1 uur 18 min
Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation. Lees meer
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In this episode, we discuss:
Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fears
How price action incorporates all narratives
Trend Following on options
The extra costs of short-term trading
Single stocks versus index futures
If Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following system
Mark's '3 D's' of inflation
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:37 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
02:32 – Macro recap from Niels
06:19 – Weekly review of performance
16:53 – Q1; Omar: Why is Trend Following associated mostly to futures?
31:32 – Q2; Mohammed: How do I overcome a lack of patience and discipline?
3…
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SI144: Why Single Stocks Should Matter to CTAs ft. Jerry Parker
13 juni 2021 · 1 uur 22 min
Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:29 - Macro recap from Niels
08:01 - Weekly review of returns and the narrative change around Bitcoin
19:01 - Q1; Omar: What books do you recommend for Trend Following educational material?
27:52 - Q2; Jacob & Sam: Can Bitcoin futures be traded safely even though you can’t trade them over the weekend?
35:40 - Q3; Mark: Could Chesapeake and Dunn Capital trade as an ETF to allow more people exposure to their strategies?
44:22 - Q4; Vinicius: What are your thoughts about Trend Following on single stocks?
50:08 - Q5; Antonio: Should we be less diversified and more concentrated with our trades?
01:03:39 - Why having rules isn’t enough to justify a robust trading system
01:15:24 -…
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SI143: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin? ft. Eric Crittenden
7 juni 2021 · 1 uur 26 min
Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolio
The recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policy
Eric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crash
The varying speeds of Trend Following
Why low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy isn't risky
Overcoming behavioural biases
Managed futures as a great benefit to investor's portfolios
The flight out of fixed income
Why crypto investors could benefit from Trend Following
Changing the narrative around Trend Following
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeSt…
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TTU115: Building a Bulletproof Portfolio with Jason Buck of Mutiny Fund
1 juni 2021 · 1 uur 18 min
What happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside? Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events. Jason has been a long-time listener of the show, so it was only right that I invited him on to discuss some of the methods and thinking behind Mutiny Fund, and how these approaches can provide protection and profits during all market environments. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
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In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
How Jason got to where he is today
If the initial risks Jason set out to protect his clients against, have changed
Why CTAs could be considered ‘long-volatility’ assets that provide protection during broad market selloffs such as 2020
The benefits of ‘ensemble’ investing
The opposite requirements of building wealth versus keeping wealth
Why a sample size of 100 years is still just an anomaly
Why the typical ‘diverse’ portfolio might be riskier than investors realise
What a ‘long-volatility’ asset looks like
The history of long-volatility assets
The term ‘crisis alpha’ and what it means to him and his clients
How to overcome the challenges of educating investors about volatility-event risks
Whether the addition of long-volatility components to portfolios today has affected his initial approach
Why the Sharpe Ratio is often misunderstood as a risk measurement tool
How much, and why, returns vary among different long-volatility managers
How to approach position sizing with black swan events in mind
Some of the common investor mistakes
How to choose between different Trend Following managers
How to create a strategy for inflationary and deflationary environments
If less-liq…
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SI142: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin Really? ft. Rob Carver
30 mei 2021 · 1 uur 29 min
Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
If Bitcoin is really as decentralised as it's reputed to be
Adjusting your system on an individual trade basis
What to do with your trading profits
Defending against inflation
Short-term Trend Following versus long-term Trend Following
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:33 - Macro recap from Niels
04:02 - Weekly review of returns
12:15 - Rob’s decision to trade Bitcoin futures
21:28 - Why Bitcoin may not be so decentralised
38:05 - Q1; Dan: Do you think fitting by instrument makes sense for intraday Trend Following?
48:43 - Q2; John: Why does Rob only allocate part of his profits back into his portfolio?
57:19 - Q3; Peewee: If Rob could…
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SI141: Aligning 'Operation Tempo' with your Trading Personality ft. Mark Rzepcyznski
23 mei 2021 · 1 uur 16 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
China's recent banning of Bitcoin trading and mining
The Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible new digital currency
Inflation and its effects on trading
The psychology around drawdowns
Price signals and how they can be distorted by inflation
Matching what Mark terms as 'Operation Tempo' with your personality
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:11 – Macro recap from Niels
05:49 – Weekly review of performance
11:00 – Further discussion on our recent talking point of discretionary versus systematic, including some comments from Top Traders Unplugged community member, Danny
13:38 – Q1; Fernando: Does it get easier with time and experience, to endure dra…
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SI140: Down Markets Are Often a Treasure to Trend Followers ft. Jerry Parker
16 mei 2021 · 1 uur 12 min
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Why you should prioritise price over any other form of data
How bad markets for the average investor is often lucrative for Trend Followers
How mainstream attention to market trends usually means they're about to end
Why money managers shouldn't always try to stand out too much
The increasing rarity of classical Trend Following CTAs
How to embrace the mentality of cutting losses
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:55 - Macro recap from Niels
06:07 - Weekly review of returns
13:34 - Stanley Druckenmiller’s recent interview criticising the Federal Reserve
16:1…
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SI139: How to Beat Unpredictable Markets ft. Moritz Seibert
9 mei 2021 · 1 uur 4 min
Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Berkshire Hathaways's recent annual general meeting
The likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates
How to overcome the unpredictable nature of markets
Thoughts on De-Fi
Increasing sustainability requirements of the investment industry
The newer, smaller futures contracts being listed on the CME
Trend Following on cryptocurrencies
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:21 - Macro recap from Niels
02:49 - Weekly review of returns
11:02 - The Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting
26:24 - Why Lumber prices are on the rise
32:44 - New and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being l…
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SI138: The 'Holy Trinity' of Security Selection ft. Rob Carver
3 mei 2021 · 1 uur 13 min
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following system
Rob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securities
The ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky bets
The most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems
'Caveman-style' Trend Following
How to hedge against inflation
Trend Following's success in rising interest-rate environments
Tesla's recent earnings
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:36 - Macro recap from Niels
04:27 - Weekly review of returns
09:38 - Discussion on Tesla’s recent earning…
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SI137: Can AI Trading Be Better Than Classical Methods? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
25 april 2021 · 1 uur 21 min
Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
How a Trend Following approach allows safer access to risky markets
The differences between Systematic Trading based on macro data versus based on price-only
How a top trader should efficiently process new data
Modern AI-based Trend Following versus classical Trend Following
Whether the biggest hedge funds in the world fall victim of being too greedy for AUM
Why you should avoid 'timing the market'
The possible secrets of success behind Dunn Capital's near 50-year track record
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:00 – Macro recap from Niels
08:46 – Weekly…
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SI136: When Investments Become A Religion ft. Jerry Parker
18 april 2021 · 1 uur 12 min
Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investments
Coinbase's recent stock market listing
Position sizing using historical volatility
Buy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periods
Mean Reversion trading versus Trend-based trading
The infamous Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:36 - Macro recap from Niels
04:37 - Weekly review of returns
09:37 - A question for Jerry, from Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?
24:44 - ‘Trend Strength’ signals, what they are, and if you should use them
26:52 - Whether Trend Followers do actually make market predictions
35:49 - A question for Jerry from Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Tr…
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SI135: WHY Trend Following is the Safest Investment Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert
11 april 2021 · 1 uur 17 min
Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for risk
What stage of the bull market in stocks we might be in
The rise in commodity prices
Trading in the Chinese commodity markets
The possible risks of trading in emerging markets
Crypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures markets
Trend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfolio
call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:19 - Macro recap from Niels
05:22 - Weekly review of returns
12:48 - Quant trading firms being ready to pounce on a possible upcoming commodity boom, especially in China
31:05 - The departure of some CTAs away from major exchang…
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SI134: Sticking with Short Positions ft. Jerry Parker
4 april 2021 · 1 uur 5 min
Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
The reasons for avoiding a long-only trading system
Knowing when 'good enough' is good enough
Why investors may be allocating to Trend Following in the wrong amounts
When volatility equates to risk
Approaches to multi-timeframe analysis
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Macro recap from Niels
04:34 - Weekly review of returns
46:37 - Q1; Marcus: What is Jerry’s approach to shorting stocks?
49:50 - Q2 & Q3; Nathaniel: Do you have any suggestions for reliable ‘predictors of return’? Do you recommend trading futures that are in backwardation?
57:16 - Q4; Nick: Are there advantages to trading markets that are unusually volatile?
01:00:07 - Performance recap
01:01:00 - Recommended listening or reading this week.
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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SI133: Volatility Targeting ft. Rob Carver
29 maart 2021 · 1 uur 21 min
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
The case for and against Volatility Targeting
Whether Bitcoin can offset any risks from a high-inflationary environment
Whether commodities can be suitable for long-term strategies
The credibility of NFTs as an asset class
Volume analysis as a trading signal
Volatility as a measure of risk
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:24 – Macro recap from Niels
04:17 – Weekly review of performance
31:32 – Q1; Dennis: How can a retail trader with limited capital access the commodity markets?
41:47 - Q2; Dennis: How would you deal with big intraday volatility such as in 2020?
51:02 - Q3; Cat: Is volume analysis overrated?
56:16 - Q4; Gustavo: Why should we be worried about volatility if it is going our way?
01:05:52 - Q5; Emra: How often should you recalibra…
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SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski
21 maart 2021 · 1 uur 29 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investing
Interest rates and their effects on the trading markets
How correlations can increase volatility
The benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to policy-making
The common perils of 'recency bias'
Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returns
The hidden costs behind supposed 'low cost' funds
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:14 – Macro recap from Niels
06:36 – W…
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SI131: Winning Big During An Inflationary Environment ft. Moritz Seibert
14 maart 2021 · 1 uur 10 min
Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment. Lees meer
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In this episode, we discuss:
Smart ways to manage cash during periods of high inflation
Staying humble during long winning periods
The GameStop short-squeeze
New volatility-based ETFs for Cryptocurrencies
Why analysing the outcome instead of the process may prove costly in the long run
Can we still call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:33 - Macro recap from Niels
04:45 - Weekly review of performance
32:56 - Q1; Daniel: How much do you risk per trade?
48:32 - Q2; Karl: When using moving average crossovers, how do you get back into a trade you were quickly stopped out of?
53:25 - Q3; Mark: Why should I place short trades if my backtest says long trades are more profitable? Have you looked at synthetic data, going back over 200 years?
01:02:58 - Ben…
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SI130: Volatility-Targeting: The Big Debate ft. Jerry Parker & Rob Carver
7 maart 2021 · 1 uur 23 min
We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
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In this episode, we discuss:
The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity risk
The benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targeting
Modern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend Following
The 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investing
How important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio?
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:45 – Macro recap from Niels
03:33 – Weekly review of performance
10:10 – Jerry Parker vs Rob Carver debate
53:13 – Q1; Michael: Why do you prefer breakouts & moving average cross-overs to other signals?
56:58 – Q2; Rene: D…
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SI129: Correlation & Volatility…and is holding bonds “Stupid”? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
28 februari 2021 · 1 uur 16 min
We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
If holding bonds "stupid"?
The problem of being an economic policy engineer
Why we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systems
The value of intuition - coup d'oeil and Clausewitz
Robot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot"
Correlation and volatility
The poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets
Due diligence and quality of managers.
Intraday trends – are they stable or unstable?
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:46 – Macro recap from Niels
05:18 – Weekly review of performance
01:04:48 – Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA in…
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SI128: Investing during Inflationary or Deflationary periods ft. Jerry Parker
22 februari 2021 · 1 uur 18 min
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold. Lees meer
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:28 – Macro recap from Niels
03:30 – Weekly review of performance
30:49 – Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program? What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s?
59:43 – Q1; Mohit: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recomm…
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SI127: Bitcoin's rise to $50,000 & new Ethereum futures ft. Moritz Seibert
15 februari 2021 · 1 uur 5 min
Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:16 – Macro recap from Niels
04:57 – Weekly review of performance
41:32 – Q1; Kevin: In a continuous Trend Following strategy with no stops, is there anyway to minimise the whipsaw action during a trend change?
47:10 – Q2; Simon: How do you measure the business risks that aren’t related to market performance?
49:59 – Q3; Danny: What are your thoughts on using an overall portfolio-based stop-loss
55:14 – Q4; Tsatios: To what extent is hedge fund performance a result of skills in accounting & tax laws, on top of performance in the markets?
01:00:56 – Benchmark performance update
01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Jim Bianco & Jeremy Grantham on the Meb Faber show
Copyright …
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SI126: GameStop & How to become a Systematic Investor ft. Rob Carver
7 februari 2021 · 1 uur 38 min
Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:25 – Macro recap from Niels
04:27 – Weekly review of performance
42:32 – Q1; Michael: Should you use the US dollar to hedge against multiple long trades?
48:47 – Q2; Dennis: Can you discuss the pros & the cons of scaling in & out of positions?
59:22 – Q3 & Q4; Woody: Will continued central bank intervention prevent Trend Following profitability? Will the rise of passive over active investments pose a threat to medium to long-term Trend Followers, in terms of the increased volatility they might create?
01:15:39 – Q5; Daniel: When starting a new Trend Following system, should you enter all markets right away, or …
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SI125: Will the FED always prevent prolonged market crashes ft. Mark Rzepczynski
31 januari 2021 · 1 uur 19 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:23 – Macro recap from Niels
05:24 – Weekly review of performance
01:04:34 – Q1; Jonah: Do you recommend adding to a position as the trend develops?
01:12:46 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:27 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Resilience Engineering website & Danielle DiMartino Booth interviews Vikram Mansharamani on YouTube
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that…
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SI124: Why smart people often struggle with systematic investing ft. Jerry Parker
24 januari 2021 · 1 uur 2 min
Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means. Lees meer
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:41 – Macro recap from Niels
03:54 – Weekly review of performance
52:18 – Q1; Zack: Are there any known Trend Following strategies that increase position sizes as volatility increases?
57:55 – Benchmark performance update
01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Paul Singer on the End Game Podcast with Grant Williams, Corey Hoffstein on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots Podcast & Jack Schwager on The Derivative Podcast
Copyr…
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SI123: The benefits of NOT taking profits too early ft. Moritz Seibert
18 januari 2021 · 1 uur 25 min
In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out? What are your views on stop-losses? Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:40 – Macro recap from Niels
05:06 – Weekly review of performance
53:15 – Q1; Carlos: Has March 2020 impacted how you view your Trend Following approach?
59:14 – Q2; James: Why did Moritz place a discretionary short-trade on Tesla last month? Why does Dunn Capital avoid using stop-losses? What are your most memorable trades?
01:12:09 – Q3; Peter: Do you recommend any particular brokers?
01:17:30 – Q4; Craig: What are your thoughts on managed futures ETFs?
01:20:22 – Benchmark performance update
01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Art B…
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SI122: Quant vs Discretionary Investing ft. Robert Carver
10 januari 2021 · 1 uur 22 min
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:07 – Macro recap from Niels
03:59 – Weekly review of performance
47:20 – Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally?
54:42 – Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio?
01:02:30 – Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions?
01:08:46 – Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment?
01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update
01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine’s articles Bloomberg, The RInger …
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SI121: How to Design a Profitable Trend Following System
6 januari 2021 · 36 min
In this episode, I conclude my special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system. I also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
Privacy Policy
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend fol…
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SI120: Deep dive into my own Trend Following Model
2 januari 2021 · 37 min
In today’s special episode, I go deep into how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program. I also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
0:00 – Intro
1:37 – A thank-you to our hosts, previous guests, production team, and all listeners of the show
3:35 – 2020 Macro recap from Niels
6:51 – How to think about trading and system development
31:59 – Performance recap
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for mo…
-
SI119: Trading TESLA & Commodity Breakout ft. Jerry & Moritz
21 december 2020 · 1 uur 22 min
Today we welcome back Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:28 – Macro recap from Niels
04:13 – Weekly review of performance
12:34 – What is risk management?
57:50 – Q1; Michael: When you trade foreign instruments, do you trade them in their native currencies?
01:00:54 – Q2; Jim: Does the need for diversification outweigh the benefits of concentrated gains?
01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update
01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Hidden Forces podcast, Kyle Bass on the Macro Voices Podcast & Jack Schwager on the Systematic Investor Podcast
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... he…
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SI118: 2020 Trend Following Recap & safe-havens in 2021 ft. Mark & Moritz
13 december 2020 · 1 uur 14 min
Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:17 – Macro recap from Niels
02:40 – Weekly review of performance
13:15 – Moritz: What do you see the narrative for 2021 Trend Following strategies will be?
27:07 – Niels: How would your performance look this year if you took out the 2 biggest winners?
53:09 – Trend Following as a store of value
01:07:42 – Benchmark performance update
01:08:32 – Jerry Parker joins us on the show next week. Send in any questions you may have.
01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading: In Defense of Trouble Makers by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth & A Deflationary World with Jeff Boothe on t…
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SI117: Why Stocks and Trend Following is a Perfect Match ft. Moritz Seibert
6 december 2020 · 1 uur 13 min
Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how to define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:15 – Macro recap from Niels
05:14 – Weekly review of performance
52:51 – Q1; Fernando: How have your views on position sizing evolved over the years? & What are your thoughts on managing drawdowns?
01:03:18 – Benchmark performance update
01:06:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rishi Narang on the Chat With Traders Podcast & Keith McCullough on The Felder Report podcast
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worke…
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TTU114: 2021 Market Predictions ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology
2 december 2020 · 1 uur 16 min
I first interviewed today’s guest back in 2015, where he predicted the Dow Jones Index would go to 32,000…a bold call back then. Mahendra Sharma is an astrological investor with an amazing track record of accurately predicting market fluctuations. He has spent his career studying astrological charts and conveying those findings, along with his understanding of human behavior, into a lucrative business giving advice on when to sell and when to hold various commodities, bonds, and currencies. His latest book on 2021 Financial Prophecies will be released in January. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
How Mahendra got into astrology
Why he relocated to Kenya as a young man
Why Mahendra pivoted to predicting the global markets
Why Mahendra stopped predicting big world events after 9/11
How he built his financial astrological charts and what he is looking for
How astrological charts are in some ways similar to other statistical based investment approaches
How human behavior fits into the astrological process
Mahendra’s prediction of Tesla from 2018
What are Mahendra’s predictions for 2021
What trend the European equities markets will follow
Why Mahendra sees an issue with the Euro as we approach 2024
The interesting correlation between the year 2021 and the Fibonacci sequence
Mahendra’s interesting prediction about Gold for the year 2052
Where Mahendra sees the $Dollar bottoming out
What commodities stand out to Mahendra
Mahendra’s prediction for a potential Bitcoin CRASH in early 2021
Why investors should be careful after 2024
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Foll…
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SI116: How to manage emotions regardless of your performance ft. Moritz Seibert
29 november 2020 · 1 uur 1 min
In today’s episode, we discuss how to effectively manage your emotional stability regardless of trading performance, the true value of Bitcoin and the various catalysts behind its price movements, the importance of being able to get back into a trade you may have recently been stopped out of, managing leverage and volatility in a portfolio, how to approach extreme anomalies in historical price data, and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
0:00 – Intro
1:33 – Macro recap from Niels
3:17 – Weekly review of performance
8:13 – Q1, via voicemail, from Gene in New Zealand: Is it ok to ignore perceived anomalies & outdated occurrences in historical data?
20:49 – Q2; Veyana: If I get whipsawed out of a trade and it sets up again immediately after, should I take the trade again?
25:26 – Q3; Terrance: How do I control the leverage of my portfolio when utilising volatility parity?
32:00 – Q4; Sebastien: How do you separate your self-worth from your net worth?
39:49 – Benchmark performance update
41:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: The Vinklevoss Twins on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & Robert Breedlove on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Podcast (Investors Podcast Network)
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: …
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SI115: Open trade Equity vs Realized Profits and Value vs Growth ft. Rob and Moritz
22 november 2020 · 1 uur 28 min
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record. Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following? Do you recommend any hedging strategies? Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:35 – Macro recap from Niels
04:59 – Weekly review of performance
27:16 – Q1; Mervin: What investment strategies would you recommending supplementing a Trend Following portfolio with?
37:36 – Q2 & Q3; Daniel: How do you think about open trade equity versus closed equity, in terms of drawdowns? Do you have any recommendations for hedging your Trend Following positions?
01:03:57 – Q4; Antonio: Which type of Moving Average (SMA, EMA, ALMA etc) is generally the most effective in Trend Following models?
01:22:48 – Benchmark performance update
01:23:48 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rauol Pal on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & b…
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SI114: The importance of Short Sellers and Pfizer CEO selling stocks ft. Moritz Seibert
16 november 2020 · 1 uur 10 min
This week, we discuss the importance of short sellers for well-functioning markets, the benefits of trading index futures versus cash equities, diversification in a robust Trend Following system, Pfizer’s CEO selling a majority of his stock holdings around the vaccine announcement, the differences between top independent discretionary traders & professional money managers, and the increasing use of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Questions we answer this week include: Are shorter timeframes going to be more effective than longer timeframes in the future? What are your thoughts on trading less-liquid markets? Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:02 – Macro recap from Niels
03:09 – Weekly review of performance
28:30 – Q1; James: Would your rules suit cash equities only?
38:54 – Q2; Anti: Shorter-term strategies seem to have done well in the last 5 years, should we be looking to trade these shorter timeframes, instead of the longer-term timeframes?
46:54 – Q3; Michael: What are your thoughts on trading in smaller markets such as butter, rough rice & oats?
01:00:18 – Benchmark performance update
01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Stephanie Kelton on the Macro Voices Podcast & Chris Cole on the Grant Williams Podc…
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TTU113: Why Farmland Investments is getting traction ft. Artem Milinchuk of FarmTogether
12 november 2020 · 1 uur 6 min
Artem Milinchuk is the CEO and Founder of FarmTogether, a firm specializing in farmland investments. Artem was born in the waning days of the Soviet Union, and while growing up in Russia, saw the importance of access to fresh food for a society. Artem joins us today to talk about his investment journey and why he feels that having farmland as an asset class in your investment portfolio can be one of the smartest investment moves you can make. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
How the transition from the Soviet Union to Russia influenced Artem’s investment strategies
What exactly constitutes farmland as an asset class
How investing in farmland has changed over the past 40 years
How farmland investments help multigenerational families keep their farms
What is the main driver for investors to move into farmland
Why investors include farmland in their portfolios as an inflation-proof asset
How reliable is farmland investment data
What effect will climate change have on farmland investments
How secure are government farm subsidies
The effect 5G will have on farming and farmland investing
What are the risks to consider when investing in farmland
What is FarmTogether’s farmland investment process
How should an investor go about incorporating farmland into their portfolio
How much does an investor need in order to purchase a farm
What types of investors seek out farmland
What are the key questions potential investors should be asking before investing in farmland
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer …