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Sanders surge more dangerous than coronavirus – Ep. 529

28 januari 2020 · 48 min
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Weak days for the stock market Friday and Monday will likely be blamed on the coronavirus. Lees meer

The real virus to be concerned about is Bernie Sanders as he infects more voters with his rapidly spreading burn.

Bernie Sanders was on Phil Donahue in 1981 when it made news that a Vermont town elected a Socialist mayor. Phil Donahue asks if he believed in competition. Bernie Sanders said no. He said he believes in cooperation, a.k.a. Socialism/Marxism/Communism.

Bernie has certainly been very consistent. He’s been saying the same things the past 30-40 years, but he’s been wrong the whole time. He never grew up, became wise, or developed intellectually. He’s Peter Pan except he can’t fly.

The stock market has barely started to react to the possibility of a Sanders president and that possibility may be becoming a probability. And if not Sanders 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in a good position for 2024

Frustrated father questions Elizabeth Warren about her student loan policies and she laughs in his face.

Gold is up better than 4% for the year and there are more reasons to be bullish on gold stocks.

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Capitalism empowers people. Socialism empowers government – Ep. 528

23 januari 2020 · 1 uur
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While I was at VRIC, Trump was in Davos touting to other world leaders the “unmatched” period of prosperity America is experiencing, thanks to him. Lees meer

Trump claims that nobody benefits more from his presidency than the middle class. In reality, the only people benefitting are the asset owners - the 1%.

There are more women than men in the workforce for the first time ever. Housing prices and household income are at all-time highs. Trump spins these as signs of a healthy economy, but the opposite is true.

This period of prosperity America is going through is a figment of Trump’s imagination, but the Republican party and Wall St aren’t questioning it.

On CNBC, Trump tells Joe Kernen that he still doesn’t know who’s buying these negative yielding bonds. He admits to having no intentions of paying off the national debt or cutting government spending. Trump pretends we can pay for it all with the bubble that he thinks is an economic “boom.” Trump and the Fed are proving there is no exit strategy for these inflationary policies.

Tesla stock, the most heavily shorted stock has skyrocketed, putting shorts through the grinder.

Sanders passes Biden to #1 in the Democratic presidential polls. Democrats are worried because Sanders will actually try the socialist policies that they know won’t work. It’s not common a Democratic presidential candidate has principles. Unfortunately, this time those principles are socialism. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and the people who vote for Sanders are going to be feeling the burn worse than anyone.

If you thought socialism was scary, AOC has gone full blown communist. She says inventors, business owners, and entrepreneurs are stealing off the backs of the workers and the workers should organize and steal those businesses back.

AOC and Bernie are reactions to Trump and when this economy finally blows up on Trump’s watch, it’s going to pave the way for a socialist (or worse) president of the United States of America. An…
The Art of the Fake Trade Deal – Ep. 527

16 januari 2020 · 1 uur 2 min
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Dow Jones closed above 29,000 today for the first time ever. Part of the impotence of this rally has been anticipation of the trade deal with China, but the majority of the rally is due to the policies of the Fed as it quietly returns to quantitative easing. The so-called good news of the trade deal is in the past and traders who were buying the rumors may start selling off on the facts. Especially since the facts of the trade deal didn’t even live up to the rumors. Lees meer

The trade deal is a big fat disappointment that didn’t live up to Trump’s hype. It’s not even a real deal; it’s written as a bunch of suggestions that either party can back-out of at any time. The deal is a double-win for China. It supposedly commits China to buying more food and energy from the U.S., but China ends up getting the commodities they need with an easy way to unload their U.S. treasuries before they collapse. The Fed will have to buy more treasuries and print more money, to keep interest rates from going up.

Gold market stronger now after the trade deal signed. Gold’s technicals haven’t looked like this since 2000 when the dot com bubble burst and gold’s bear market ended. Americans don’t see the gold bull market that foreigners do because gold has made a new high in every currency except the U.S. dollar and is outperforming foreign stock markets, but not the U.S. stock market.

Fed released a weak jobs report with a big loss of 12,000 manufacturing jobs. Americans are working less hours and getting paid less for the hours they work.

Bloomberg wins the democratic debates by not showing up. Democratic presidential candidates are right about healthcare costs being too high, but they’re wrong about the reasons and solutions.

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War is off so risk is on – Ep. 526

10 januari 2020 · 49 min
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Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are less diffused than everyone seems as the propaganda strengthens on both sides of the political theater. Lees meer

NASDAQ, Dow, S&P hit new record highs. Trump is eager for Dow to hit 30k so he can tweet up a storm claiming credit.

Risk premiums for crude and gold are still there although gold mining stocks got obliterated as war became less imminent. Investors were spooked as gold dropped from $1610 to $1540 in a 24 hour period. Despite gold mining stocks getting crushed, gold itself is up 2% for the year. This presents an even better buy for gold stocks as they catch up to gold’s $1550 support.

People are underestimating the popularity of socialism in America and investors are underestimating the possibility of a Bernie Sanders win.

A lawsuit tries to postpone California’s new law aimed at the gig economy. Lawmakers say it’s to protect independent contractors, but it’s the independent contractors filing the lawsuit.

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Iranian missiles launch gold past $1,600 – Ep. 525

8 januari 2020 · 1 uur 1 min
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We had a break-through in gold, which I predicted could happen. That means there’s a very good chance gold is done going down. All signs point to a big bull market in gold and the window of opportunity to get in on it may be closing rapidly. While recording this podcast, reports of a U.S. airbase in Iraq under attack from Iranian missiles launched gold above $1,600. Lees meer

It’s amazing how little people understand about how well gold mining stocks are performing. While the S&P has returned 72% over the past 4 years, GDX has returned 125% over the same period. Over the past 5 quarters, S&P is up 12% while GDX is up 58%. You won’t hear any of that on CNBC.

I think the best way to gain exposure to gold mining stocks is to buy the Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX), managed by the expert, Adrian Day. Morning Star gave the Euro Pacific Gold Fund 5 stars and it’s been the number 1 performing gold fund from 2013 to 2018. The fund is also rated to have above average returns and below average risks, making it one of the smartest investments you can make right now.

Videos to watch:

Peter Schiff at Occupy Wall Street "I am the 1%. Let's Talk"

Democrats: Let’s Ban Profits

2006 Mortgage Bankers Speech

Walmart Shoppers Support Everyday High Wages

Is a College Degree Worth the Cost? You Decide

Peter Schiff Argues Against 3 Typical Liberals (my last appearance on CNN)

Mr. Schiff Goes to Washington (first Congressional testimony)

Mr. Schiff Returns to Washington (second Congressional testimony)

Peter Schiff Stand-up Comedy .

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Gold climbs wall of worry to $1,550 – Ep. 524

4 januari 2020 · 49 min
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Markets off to a volatile start for the new year. Lees meer

U.S. assassinates an Iranian military general driving up safe haven investments like oil, gold, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Treasury market. Gold outshines them all. But is the world safer or more dangerous than ever?

Bitcoin touted as the best performing asset of the decade. But it’s not that simple.

CNBC thinks the hardest job for the Fed is creating inflation. The biggest problem is really their inability to stop inflation. The monetary spigots are flowing heavy and they’re going to flow even heavier leading up to the election.

It’s a dangerous time for markets with the coming election. There was a time when America would never vote in socialism, but that’s no longer the case. This election may bring in one of the largest single day stock market drops in history.

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Ringing in a Decade of Stagflation – Ep. 523

31 december 2019 · 1 uur 4 min
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Second to Last Trading of the Decade... Lees meer

All of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the second to last trading day of this year in the red. Although, it's not just the second to last trading day of the year, it is the second to last trading day of the decade. Technically speaking, I know the next decade doesn't really start until January 1, 2021, but practically speaking, it's going to be the 20's. So, to me, that's a new decade.

Closing With a Gain of About 30% in the S&P

So let's just say tomorrow is the last trading day of the decade. And even if we get another decline tomorrow, I don't know what's going to happen - maybe we'll get a bounce, but I doubt it will be significant enough to turn the tide on this bull market or this bubble - bear market rally - whatever you want to call it - but it looks like we're going to close the year with a gain of about 30% in the S&P 5000.

Not our Strongest Year in Recent Memory

That's going to put the market with its best annual increase since 2013 - which, of course is not that long ago. So we did have a rise in 2013 when Obama was President, where the S&P had a year that was as good as this year, with Donald Trump as President. So clearly, it's not simply a case that we have Trump as President and that's why we have such a strong market. We've had plenty of years where the market was this strong and Trump wasn't President. In fact, Barack Obama was President. One of the reasons that the market was so strong this year is because it finished last year so weak. I think the 4th quarter of last year we were down 13 - 14% - but it was a very big decline which would have been much much bigger but for that record surge the day after Christmas. Remember that Boxing Day - I think the Dow was up about 1,000 points.

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America’s Economy Is the Biggest Bubble Ever – Ep. 522

21 december 2019 · 59 min
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Liz Claman, Gene Epstein, Jim Grant, Peter Schiff, David Tice, Tom Woods at the NYC Premier of Jimmy Morrison's "The Bubble" Order The Bubble here Lees meer

November Personal Income and Spending Positive

On Friday, all of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the day and the week positive, in record territory. The only index not in record territory (but it did make a new 52-week high) is the Russell 2000. The supposed catalyst for Friday's optimism was a better than expected report on Personal Income & Spending for November. They were looking for personal spending to rise by .3% following the prior month's flat number. They actually revised that one up to +.1%, and the November number came out at +.5%, so incomes rising. Spending came in and met expectations of +.4%, so apparently the savings rate ticked up a bit. But this was better than expected. I think that caused some optimism on Wall Street.

Kansas City Manufacturing Index Disappoints

But the markets likely would have gone up, anyway, even if that number disappointed. We did get weak data from manufacturing. Kansas City manufacturing number came out for November. It was supposed to be weak at a -3%, but it was even weaker at -8%. That is the lowest level for this index in 4 years. . In fact, we've had 6 consecutive monthly declines in the Kansas City Manufacturing Index, and that really is par for the course. We get stronger economic data when it comes to people spending money but we have weaker data when it comes to generating real production, real wealth, goods production manufacturing - all that data comes out weaker than expected.

U.S. Steel Lays off 1,500 Workers in Michigan

In fact, we got news on Friday that U.S. is going to be laying off more than 1500 workers in the state of Michigan. Of course, this flies in the face of the fantasy that is being promoted by Donald Trump that the steel industry is back - the steel industry is booming. He's been talking a lot since he's been elected about the steel…
Trayvon Martin Race Hoax Exposed – Ep. 522

19 december 2019 · 1 uur 4 min
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Narrative of Racism Lees meer

So I decided to record a special edition of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, and it's very important topic, and I also wanted to include some video. It's not directly related to the economy or the markets, but really, indirectly, it is, because this nation is being pushed to the left by a lot of false narratives. One of them, being racism, particularly when it comes to the issues of wealth disparity and trying to blame the difference in wealth between African Americans and the general population, and the reason for this is because of a pervasive and systemic racism, and that the only way that African Americans can succeed is if we elect a bunch of socialists who will enact laws to save them from racism and to re-distribute the wealth.

Media Remains Steadfast as Evidence Contradicts

And part of that narrative really was advanced back in 2012 with the Trayvon Martin incident with George Zimmerman and people who were listening to the Peter Schiff Show back in 2012, I really covered this topic pretty extensively. I was one of the earliest defenders of Zimmerman, and the reason I did that is because, as the evidence was coming out, it was completely contradicting the false narrative that was being pushed by the Martin family, by the media. Yet the media remains steadfast in their opinion, even though they had all this evidence that contradicted it.

New Information Brought to Light

Well, the reason that I've resurrected this topic is that now George Zimmerman is in the news again, he has filed a $100 million lawsuit against the Trayvon Martin family, the mom and dad, the lawyers, prosecutors, and the media is again pushing the same false narrative. They are writing all sorts of articles really vilifying Zimmerman all over again: "How dare this guy file this lawsuit! Hasn't he done enough damage? He murdered a child and now he is suing the parents of the victim - all this terrible coverage.

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Phase One Is a Truce, Not a Victory – Ep. 521

17 december 2019 · 1 uur
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U.S. China Trade Deal Rumors are True Lees meer

The U.S. stock market continues to add to its gains; the Dow Jones is up another 100 points today - a new record high: 28,235.89. We were up better than 200 points at one point in the day, but all the indexes are hitting new 52-week, or record highs. Basically, we continue to bask in the light of the U.S. China Trade Deal that on Friday, we finally got news that the rumors of a trade deal were actually true. There actually is a trade deal because the Chinese have agreed, or admitted that they, too have come to some type of understanding with the United States on a Phase 1 Deal.

Lost in Translation?

Of course, we don't actually have the phase 1 deal yet because nothing is actually official; nothing has been signed. In fact, both sides seem to have different versions over what they have agreed to; so maybe some of the stuff has been "lost in translation". We'll have to see if they can actually put something in writing where both sides will agree.

A Truce in the Trade War

But one thing we know is that whatever is involved in this deal - this is not the resolution. This is not a trade deal; this isn't even the end of the trade war. I would say it's probably a truce. It's not an outright surrender, although that's probably coming eventually, but it's really a truce in the trade war, and a de-escalation of arms. One of the things that the U.S. is supposedly committed to is rolling back the tariffs. Not only calling off new tariffs that were supposed to take effect over the weekend, but eliminating or reducing the tariffs that are already in place. But as far as a comprehensive deal that actually delivers the type of structural change that President Trump promised; nobody thinks that any of that stuff is involved in this deal at all.

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Volcker Dies as Inflation Comes Back to Life – Ep. 520

12 december 2019 · 40 min
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Fed: Interest Rates on Pause Lees meer

Today the Federal Reserve had its last official meeting of the year. And, as was widely expected, the Federal Reserve was unanimous in their decision not to cut interest rates. They didn't even consider hiking interest rates, but they decided not to cut them any further for now. So, they're on a pause. The short-term rates are now 1.5%. The target is 1.5% to 1.75%, and the idea is that the Fed is going to remain there for some time. Now, I don't really think it is going to be that long before they cut rates.

Fed Will be back to Rate Cutting Soon

I was on Fox Business earlier today with Liz Claman, and Liz asked me when I thought they were going to cut rates in 2020. I said, I don't know the exact meeting, that they're going to choose to do it. I think a lot of it depends on what's happening with the stock market. As soon as the stock market starts to sell off, if that's what happens, I think that could motivate the Fed for the next rate cut. And maybe, if we get enough bad economic data, the Fed might move for that reason. But whatever the reason is going to be, whatever the excuse they're going to make up, the Fed is not done cutting. I don't think they will pause until 2021 or later, as a lot of people seem to believe. I think the Fed is going to be back in the rate cutting business much sooner than that.

The November deficit: $2o9 Billion

Of course, the quantitative easing business - that's not going to stop. They're going to continue to expand their balance sheet and print money so that they can prop up the bond market and prop up the stock market and prop up the government. So that is going to continue. In fact, we got the official budget deficit released, I guess at about the same time as we got the Fed decision. The November deficit: $2o9 billion. We've not got two months into this quarter and the deficits are running much higher than they were earlier, so even though the economy is supposedly getting better, the deficits ar…
Justice for George – Ep. 519

11 december 2019 · 39 min
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The Trayvon Hoax: Unmasking The Witness Fraud That Divided America Lees meer

Jeantel's Lies: Prosecution's Star Witness in George Zimmerman Trial Commits Perjury

Special Podcast about a Hoax

I wanted to to take some time and record a special podcast today, really having nothing to do with the markets and the economy and just focus on a topic that I haven't discussed in quite some time. I do believe that the politics surrounding this event are relevant to the economy, and to the markets, although, because really has set in motion political winds that are blowing the country in a direction that is very detrimental to the U.S. economy and to the markets.

Circumstances Surrounding the Death of Trayvon Martin

I think it was 2012 when the Trayvon Martin story really took off in the U.S. If you remember, George Zimmerman is the person killed Trayvon Martin and, initially, everybody was quick to believe the completely ridiculous-sounding story that was being perpetrated by the Martin family and their attorney, as to what happened, and the circumstances surrounding the death of Trayvon Martin.

Who is the Racist?

I was one of the earlier who came out and I was defending George Zimmerman. I took a lot of heat back then, initially, because people were saying, "Hey, it's racist for me to be defending George Zimmerman. But the reality was, I thought it was racist for the people to have believed the complete nonsense - a ridiculous story about what happened. It made a lot more sense to me, just judging by the facts, not looking at the races of the individuals or any of that, just judging by the facts - George Zimmerman's version of events made sense.

Plausible vs. Implausible

The other version made no sense at all. I think it was the racists who were so quick to dismiss George Zimmerman's version, which made sense, was supported by all the evidence and the other witness testimony that came out - rather than simply believing the parents of Trayvon Martin or their lawyer.

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Another Trumped up Jobs Report – Ep. 518

7 december 2019 · 53 min
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Schiffbooks.com Lees meer

Letusdissagree.com

Mene.com

Dow Up From Last Week's Trade Deal Woes

The Dow Jones closed out the week with 3 plus days in a row, culminating in today's 337 point jump, back above 28,000 - the Dow settling in at 28,015.06. Remember, when I recorded my podcast on Tuesday, we had just finished 3 consecutive down days in a row, and that's been reversed. The catalyst for the decline, prior to my last podcast was negative news on trade. In particular, the news that Donald Trump, at a press conference, let the cat out of the bag and said, "As far as I'm concerned, it would be better if we waited until after the election to have a trade deal with China. And, of course, the markets were expecting a trade deal any day and all of a sudden Trump is saying, "Hey, I think it's better to wait until after the election." - which is a year from now. Of course, it's not a lock that Trump is going to win a second term. Nonetheless, that was a negative for the market.

Positive Trade News Equals New Dow Highs

Well, what happened, was, on Monday morning, pretty much before they even rang the bell, the White House was already doing damage control and walking that back because all of a sudden I started reading these headlines, "White House Says Trade Talks Going Well". Of course, that means nothing. But you have a lot of traders now who are keying in on these press releases. As soon as they see any positive news, they just buy. As long as positive trade news makes the market go up, whenever they see the positive trade news, they're going to buy.

Will We Ever Have a Fact to Sell On?

The reason that all of this news makes people want to buy stocks is because everybody believes that when we do get a deal, the stock market's going to soar. So everybody wants to be in so they can sell that rally. Of course, I've been saying since the beginning that I think it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact", which is why we're probably never going to have a fact to sell.

Our S…
Trump Trade Talk Tanks Stocks – Ep. 517

4 december 2019 · 1 uur 8 min
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What Phase One? Lees meer

When the Phase One trade deal was first announced, it was October 11, I think was the date. And before that date, nobody ever heard, "Phase One". It was always, "trade deal, trade deal". There was never any talk of Phase One. Then all of a sudden Trump comes out and says, "We've completed Phase One! The Phase One deal is done. We have concluded negotiations, we have come to a deal. We have this great Phase One deal; it's already done. It's in the bag. We've agreed to it in principle, all we need is the formalities of putting it on paper. We're going to have a big signing ceremony, and it's all going to be done." Oh, and by the way, Trump said, "This is the greatest deal ever for American farmers. They have never had a deal this great; go out and buy some more tractors; I don't even know if we can fill this order, it's so big - it's the biggest order in the history of agriculture!" It's a good thing farmers didn't go out and buy new equipment based on Trump's phony promises.

Sending the Dow Up - Buy the Rumor!

But in any event Marc Faber asked Wilbur Ross, "Do you regret this?" Do you think Trump should not have come out and said this?" And he said, "No, we don't regret it." Of course, why should he regret it? The Dow rose by 1600 points following that comment! That comment sparked all sorts of more comments; the deal is imminent any day, any week or they're going to sign it here... "Buy the rumor, buy the rumor, buy the rumor!" And they pushed the market. The Dow went through 28,000 on all that B.S. So why should Wilbur Ross regret that, when the comments worked?

Bidding the Spoos Higher

I said a long, time ago: "Trump is not talking to the Chinese. He's not negotiating, because if he was, he's the worst negotiator ever. He ought to read, "The Art of the Deal". What he is saying makes no sense, if you're trying to negotiate. The only way Trump's statements make any sense is if they're really designed to boost the stock market. He's not talking …
Be Thankful for Capitalism – Ep. 516

27 november 2019 · 1 uur 5 min
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Recorded November 26, 2019 Lees meer

The Radical Solution Should Be Free Market Capitalism

The problem is, this coming crisis is going to be so bad, it's going to be so much worse than 2008 and you know it's all going to be blamed on capitalism. It's all going to be the left saying "We told you so!" "We cut taxes for the rich, we deregulated. Trump inherited a great economy from Obama and everything he inherited he squandered it with tax cuts for the rich." And things are going to be very tough. People will demand radical solutions. I wish the radical solution could be Free Market Capitalism, because we haven't had that in a long time - but everybody's convinced that that's all we've had. Even the people who supposedly defend capitalism think that it needs a makeover, that it needs to be re-done for the modern era.

Get Government Out and Market Forces Back In

We don't need to re-do capitalism. We just NEED capitalism. What we have to do is get all the socialism out of capitalism. It's giving it a bad name. We need to get government out of all this stuff so that market forces can get back in.

How Old Is Too Young to Vote?

I want to finish up the podcast talking about voting. So I read this article about a town, Brookline, that had approved a measure to lower the voting age down to 16. That's part of the Democrat platform. In addition to doing away with the Electoral College and making D.C. and Puerto Rico states, they want to lower the voting age to 16. I don't blame the Democrats for wanting the 16-year-olds to vote; almost all of them are going to vote Democrat, because, they're only 16 - what do you expect? In fact, the Democrats want 14-year-olds - 10-year-olds, 5-year-olds! The younger the better!

Directly Pandering to Children for Votes

They're not old enough to know any better. It's so much easier to fool these people. But I can just imagine elections where the politicians have to directly pander to children in order to get their votes.

Raise the Voting Age

S…
Maybe Trump Can Close a Phase 1A Trade Deal – Ep. 515

21 november 2019 · 45 min
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What a Shocker Lees meer

The phase one trade deal is not going to happen this year. What a shocker. If you remember, when Trump first surprised everybody and talked about a phase 1 deal. If you remember, it was never phases; it was one big comprehensive Deal. In fact early on, and I've said this before, the President scoffed at the idea that we would negotiate in stages. "That wasn't going to work, It's all or nothing, we need to get the big comprehensive deal. " Then all of a sudden he announces this phase 1 deal, and he say it's going to be the greatest deal, it's going to be great for farmers, the Chinese are going to buy 50 billion dollars worth of food; American farmers better buy some more equipment; we don't even know if they can fill this order, it's the biggest order anyone has ever had; it's the greatest achievement in the history of achievements - all this was supposedly a done deal. And then nothing happened.

Phase One China Trade Deal

Of course, Kudlow and other White House people would come out and,"Oh, the phase 1 deal is almost here - but now Reuters is saying it's not going to happen this year. Now, it's probably not going to happen next year either, I mean, maybe, because phase 1 - there's hardly anything involved in it, at least the way it is going to end up being.

How About Phase 1a?

But what I think the President should probably do is forget about phase 1. How about phase 1a? Let's break down phase 1 into a, b and c. Let's at least do phase 1a. First we could tease 1a, and then when we get phase 1a, if we ever get phase 1a well then we've got phase 1b to talk about!

Surrender without Admitting Defeat

Of course, none of this is going to matter, because none of the real stuff is going to be included in any of these phases. Whether it's 1,2,a,b… Whatever it is, this is all a way for the President to try to save face and surrender in the trade war without actually admitting defeat.

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QE4 Sends Dow Above 28,000 – Ep. 514

16 november 2019 · 1 uur 3 min
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Markets Making More Milestones Lees meer

The Dow continued its weekly winning streak with another milestone, closing above 28,000 for the first time: 28,004.89 to be exact. That's a gain of 222.93. Now, I'm sure everybody is getting their "Dow 30,000!" hats ready, because obviously that's not too far off, now from 28,000. But it's not just the Dow that is setting records and crossing milestones. The NASDAQ - another record high today - up 61.81, closing at 8,540.83. That's the first time the NASDAQ has been above 8,500. The S&P also making new highs, up 23.83 - 3120.46 is the close. This is the first time the S&P has been above 3100.

Russell 2000 Sitting Out the Party

The only major index really not enjoying the party, although it was up again today is the Russell 2000, still not quite near an all-time record high. That index is at 1,596. Again, the Russell is the one that most reflects the domestic economy, and it is the domestic economy that is in a lot of trouble. In fact, the Dow rose today, despite more weak economic data that was released during the day.

Industrial Production: Weak

Probably the weakest data point of them all was on industrial production. It was supposed to drop again after falling .4% in September, and they did revise the September drop to -.3% from -.4%. But instead of a .4 drop in October, which was the consensus forecast, we dropped by .8. So twice as large a decline. In fact, I think you have to go back to March of 2009 to see a larger decline than that in industrial production. Capacity Utilization really contracted as well, from 77.5; it went all the way down to 76.7.

Halfway to Recession

And we also got more weak news on business inventories, which were revised lower. And I think that, and industrial production and some other weak data points that had come out caused the Atlanta Fed to reduce its forecast for Q4 GDP all the way down to .3%. It was at 1%, and now it's at .3% which is close to zero. And in fact, it's very likely that we cou…
Rich Democrats Secretly Prefer Trump to Warren – Ep. 513

13 november 2019 · 46 min
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Why is Michael Bloomberg Actively Preparing to Enter the 2020 Presidential Race? Lees meer

I want to talk a little bit about Michael Bloomberg, entering the primary - and the reason that I think Michael Bloomberg is in. Bloomberg is now a Democrat, but he was a Republican. He served as mayor of New York as a Republican for 2 terms. Then, I think he served a third term as an independent. But he was a Republican and now he's a Democrat. The reality is, he is a very middle of the road guy. He's a liberal Republican or a conservative Democrat. But conservative Democrats have not place in the modern Democrat party. I think Bloomberg's motivation to throw his hat in the ring is the diminishing prospects of Joe Biden. Initially, everybody thought, "OK, Joe Biden's the guy." I think Michael Bloomberg was fine with a President Biden because it represented a continuation of the status quo and the status quo has been very good to Michael Bloomberg, do why wouldn't he want to continue that status quo?

Socialists are Frankenstein's Monster Consuming the Democratic Party

But with the rise of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and the increasing likelihood that Warren could actually be the next President, I think that scares the hell out of Mike Bloomberg and I think it also scares the hell out of Mike Bloomberg's rich friends who are also Democrats. This is an example of Frankenstein and the monster. Baron Von Frankenstein created a monster and then Frankenstein's monster turned on its creator. And I think that's what these limousine liberals have done with the Democrat party. They have created this monster and now the monster is about to consume them.

Rich Democrats Would Rather Re-Elect Trump Than Support Warren or Sanders

I think what wealthy liberals are afraid to admit is, as much as they claim they don't like Donald Trump (and some of them don't like Donald Trump) they dislike Warren even more. A lot of these rich Democrats would rather see Trump re-elected than have Warren or…
Destroying Savings Doesn’t Create Jobs – Ep. 512

6 november 2019 · 47 min
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Better Luck Next Fall Lees meer

I just got back yesterday from the New Orleans Investment Conference, and I actually came to Connecticut for a few days; I really wanted to experience some of the fall foliage. It's normally at its peak in the beginning of November. But, unfortunately we had a big storm here - a lot of rain, a lot of wind, and it knocked most of the leaves off of the trees. So you know what they say about the best laid plans… hopefully I'll have better luck next fall.

Stock Market High on Trade Rumors

But as the leaves have been falling from the trees, stocks have been going the other direction. Yesterday, all of the major stock market indexes hit new record highs. I think the catalyst, again, were rumors about a potential phase 1 trade deal. Of course, it really is ridiculous now. What rallies the market is not the rumor of an actual trade deal but the rumors of a phony trade deal - a phase 1 deal which really isn't a deal at all. In fact, to the extent that anybody is even celebrating phase 1, what they really celebrating is that the trade war is over. That Donald Trump has basically surrendered without admitting that he has surrendered. In fact a lot of the talk about what the Chinese even need to get the phase 1 deal is for all of the tariffs to be removed. Not just cancelling the future tariffs, but to take away all the tariffs that are already there, which, of course would be a relief for the American consumer, who, contrary to Donald Trump's claim, they're the ones who pay the tax - not the Chinese.

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact… Again?

But, basically, what the markets would really be celebrating, is if we went back to where we were before the trade war ever began. Of course, this is not a victory for the president if all the markets could hope for, is a return to the status quo, but again, once we get that deal - if we get that deal, it should be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact", especially since the fact is not going to live up to the height of th…
It’s Bad Monetary Policy Not a Good Economy – Ep. 511

2 november 2019 · 55 min
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New Highs in the Headlines Lees meer

We had record high closes today in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite; the Dow Jones not quite a new record but still up better than 300 points: 301.13 to be precise. Of course, all of the headlines, and President Trump - they're going to be claiming that the reason that we had these surging stock prices is because we had a stronger than expected jobs report. We got the October nonfarm payroll that came out this morning and it was better than was expected. You had Larry Kudlow out there talking about how this is a fantastic jobs report. It basically shows how we have this great economy; the greatest economy in the history of America, and that's the reason that the stock market is making record highs, because we have this great economy.

Economic Data was a Mixed Bag

Well, first of all, the jobs report is really not that great. Sure, it was stronger than expected, but that's not why the stock market went up today. We had other economic data that came out that was weaker than expected, so it was an overall mixed bag. In fact, the Atlanta Fed came out today and downwardly revised their forecast for Q4 GDP from 1.5% down to 1.1%, and I think the New York Fed is actually below 1% in its forecast for fourth quarter GDP. So hardly the strongest economy in history, yet the markets and President Trump are certainly celebrating like the economy is strong.

Nonfarm Payroll up from an Upwardly Revised Previous Month

But let me get to the tale of the tape first in the jobs report, because we were looking for a weak number. So the bar was pretty low. The consensus was for 90,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, and one of the reasons was because of the striking GM workers, so they were going to be subtracted from the numbers. So that was already baked into the cake. We ended up getting 128,000 jobs, so nicely above those diminished expectations. But probably more significantly, they went back and upwardly revised the number they told us for the prior month, whi…
Powell Admits Inflation Is Headed Much Higher – Ep. 510

31 oktober 2019 · 47 min
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The Fed Slashes Interest Rates for 3rd Time Lees meer

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates today. This is the third rate cut of this cycle. We're now down to 1.5%. But of course, what everybody has to remember is a year ago, when the Fed was hiking interest rates, the forecast from the Fed was that they were going to continue to hike rates. They were supposed to have another 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2019. And, of course, a year ago, as the Fed was hiking rates, they were still shrinking their balance sheet and they were going to continue to shrink it. They were talking about auto-pilot. They were going to continue to do $50 billion/month of quantitative tightening. And they said this with a straight face. And everybody believed them.

Not a Surprise to Me

Of course, everybody except me and maybe a few other people out there in the financial media. But I was telling anybody who would listen - which was not that many people in the mainstream, but certainly the people who listen to my podcasts, that none of this was going to happen. I said that the Fed was going to have to stop hiking rates, and that they would be cutting rates in 2019, and that not only were they going to stop quantitative tightening, that they were going to have to go back to quantitative easing. And that's exactly where we are.

A Distinction without a Difference

Although, Jerome Powell went out of his way - I think the first thing that he said when he made his prepared remarks - was to reassure everybody that what the Fed was doing now, with its repo program was not quantitative easing. He drew a distinction between what the Fed was doing when it was doing QE and what it is doing now when it is not doing QE. The main distinction had to do with the maturities of the debt that the Fed was buying. He said that when they were doing QE, they were buying longer term government bonds, but that now, they're buying shorter term government bonds and so therefore it's not QE. But this is really a distinc…
Government Is the Threat, Not Facebook – Ep. 509

25 oktober 2019 · 53 min
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I am Back! Lees meer

I am back! I know a lot of people have been upset that I haven't been able to do a podcast in almost 2 weeks. The reason I've been absent… I just haven't been feeling well. I've been coughing a lot and and haven't been up for doing a podcast - I'm doing one today, though. I'm still a little bit sick… but I figure it's been long enough, so I have to talk a little bit about what's on my mind.

Dollar Index Trending Lower

First of all, there hasn't been that much activity, I guess, in the markets over this time period. The U.S. dollar has generally been weaker. It has been trending down. It hasn't really broken down yet, but it is going lower. In fact, the dollar index closed today near 97.69. so that is lower than it had been. Remember, a few weeks ago, the dollar index was above 99. So the dollar is trending lower.

Interest Rates Up - Bond Prices Down

Interest rates are actually moving higher. Bond prices are going down. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury now is at 2.26, and I think this is significant because it really shows the problems that are building in the economy because the dollar is weakening and interest rates are rising. That is going to mean higher consumer prices, it's going to mean higher borrowing costs; now of course, the Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to artificially suppress interest rates. One of the stories that I've read several times over the last couple of weeks is how the Federal Reserve is having to do more repurchase agreements; having to increase the size of the amount of Treasuries they're buying in the market. I didn't see that in today's balance sheet numbers; the balance sheet was up only about 2 billion over the prior week. But I have a feeling that the number is going to be much, much higher than that when we get it a week from today.

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Trump and Powell Follow the Same Script – Ep. 508

12 oktober 2019 · 37 min
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Dow jumps 300 points

U.S. stocks finished out the week on a strong note; in fact we broke a 3-week losing streak. This was the first time in 4 weeks that the major averages finished higher on the week. When I recorded my podcast earlier in the week, the week was off to a rough start. But we had a turnaround. In fact, today the Dow Jones was up 319 points on the day - about a 1.2% gain. The NASDAQ was up even more; 106 points, that's 1.34%. The Russell 2000, even better, up 1.8%. The Dow Transports were the stars of the day. They were up 2.23% - 224 points. Look at stocks like Apple, rising almost 3% to a new all-time record high.

Rumors and News Driving the Market

There was a lot of news driving the market today. Initially, we got rumors of some type of Brexit deal that potentially was imminent. Of course, there have been all sorts of rumors that have never panned out regarding a Brexit deal. But this morning, there was a rumor that really was causing a lot of buying in the European markets and that spilled over into the U.S. futures, which helped the U.S. market. And of course there was a lot of brewing optimism over some kind of impending trade deal with China, although that news didn't come out until very close to the close.

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Climbs to 3-Month High in October

But, earlier in the day, we got the Consumer Sentiment number for October, and the markets are already higher by the time we got this release, which comes out at 10am; the market opens at 9:30. The prior month was 93.2, and the consensus was for a slight drop in consumer sentiment to 92. After all, there are a lot of reasons for consumers to be less optimistic now than they were back then. But the consumer… surprise - ended up being more optimistic. The number came out at 96 and that sent the price of stocks much higher.

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Powell Announces the Fed Is Not Doing QE – Ep. 507

9 oktober 2019 · 28 min
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Another Weak Day in the Equity Market

We had another weak day in the equity market, so the 4th quarter is starting off on a particularly sour note. The Dow, down 314 points today. Technically speaking, closing right near the lows: down 1.2%. NASDAQ had a much worse day, down 132 points - that's 1.67%. Russell 2000, similarly beat up: 1.7%, down 25 points. The Transports really took it on the chin. They down 1.85%. 185 points down on the Transports. The money losing stocks, the recent IPO's continue to get beat up. The real debacle du jour was Smile Direct. That one was down another 15% today: down $2 - it closed at $11.34 right off the new low of $11.20. Remember, this stock came public less than 2 weeks ago and it was $23 a share. The highest it actually traded was $21.10. Now we're down better than 50% from the IPO.

Fed: QE but not QE

But I really don't want to spend a lot of time talking about the markets today. In fact, I only want to talk about one thing, and that's the Fed and the return to Quantitative Easing . I wasn't even going to do a podcast today; Yom Kippur starts in a couple of hours so I was just going to skip it. In fact, I wasn't even going to do one tomorrow - I was probably going to wait until Thursday. But then I was watching this press conference with Jerome Powell where basically the Fed came out and said they were doing QE, except they said they weren't doing QE.

"Increasing Securities Holdings to Maintain an Appropriate Level of Reserves"

There's an old saying: "Never believe something until it's been officially denied. Jerome Powell went out of his way today in his statement and in the Q and A that followed to emphatically say that the Fed is not doing QE. This is an exact quote from Powell: "This is not QE. In no sense is this QE." Except, in every sense it's QE, because it's exactly QE. There's also an old s…
Service Sector to Follow Manufacturing into Recession – Ep.506

5 oktober 2019 · 50 min
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The Weakest First Two Days of Any Quarter Since 2008

Before I get into what happened with today's nonfarm payroll number and the 372.68 rally in the Dow that it helped spark, I want to back and talk about what happened on Wednesday and Thursday, which were the 2 days following my Tuesday podcast, from the first day of the 4th quarter of the year. On Wednesday, the market sold off sharply, in fact at one point we were down better than 600 points on the day. We managed to close down just under 500 - 494 points. At that point, the first 2 days of the 4th quarter of 2019 were the weakest first 2 days of any quarter - not just a 4th quarter - but of any quarter going all the way back to 2008, which was the year the market imploded because of the '08 financial crisis.

Weakness in Private Sector Jobs

One of the data points that came out on Wednesday that may have been a contributing factor - but probably not - was the ADP employment number, which is an early look at the official numbers that came out today. This is just the private sector, which is certainly weaker than the government sector, and I'm going to get into that when I discuss today's numbers later in the podcast. But, the estimate was for 152,000 jobs created in the private sector and we only got 135,000. But, not only that, there was a downward revision to the prior month, from 195,000 to 157,000. So, this was additional evidence of economic weakness that was weighing on the market.

IPO's Cancelled Due to Insufficient Investor Demand

Also, again we had the follow over from what I had pointed out on my podcast not only on Tuesday, but on Friday the prior week regarding the weakness in the newly publicly traded companies - money losing companies - the fact that some of these companies had to cancel their IPO's due to insufficient investor demand. All of that was weighing on the mar…
The Party Is Over. Don’t Be the Last to Leave. – Ep. 505

2 oktober 2019 · 53 min
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First Day of Q4 2019

Today was the first trading day of the 4th quarter of 2019. And if today's action was a harbinger of things to come, it is going to be one difficult quarter for the bulls on Wall Street. In fact, when they rang the opening bell this morning, everybody was happy, the stock market was up, the dollar was up, gold was down again. In fact, gold has had a pretty big correction since my last podcast.

When You Live in Glass White Houses…

Yesterday, gold saw a $25 decline; again, with a stronger dollar and a stronger stock market. For some reason, I think investors were a little bit more optimistic over the last few days after my last podcast Donald Trump talked about - or there were some rumors that he was thinking about maybe de-listing Chinese companies from U.S exchanges, making it illegal or something for Americans to invest in China - which I thought was a very dangerous road for the President to go down. Remember, when you live in glass White Houses, you don't want to throw stones.

Chinese Still Big U.S. Investors

The United States benefits from a lot of direct investment from overseas, particularly China. Chinese invest a lot in U.S. businesses; they're big buyers of U.S real estate, and, of course, they're still big holders of U.S. Treasuries. If the United States says, "Well, Americans can't invest in China." what happens if the Chinese return the favor? I think we have a lot more to lose than they do. I think the following day or maybe over the weekend the President kind of backtracked away from that trial balloon and they said, "No, we're not considering that." So probably that was good news and a relief for the market that that wasn't going to happen.

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Riskiest Assets Leading the Decline – Ep. 504

25 september 2019 · 44 min
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Check out my podcast, "What it Means to be an American", Episode 265 Lees meer

Earthquake Hits Puerto Rico

Last night, I was lying in bed, I wasn't asleep yet; I just finished watching television; my wife and I were still awake, and next thing we know, the house starts shaking. And it kept on shaking. I couldn't believe I was in an earthquake. This was a decent-sized earthquake - it was over 6.0 on the Richter scale. The earthquake occurred in the ocean, but not too far from Puerto Rico. I think it rattled a lot of the islands here in the Caribbean. I haven't felt an earthquake since I lived in California. To be honest, I never even considered earthquakes here in Puerto Rico. I knew about hurricanes, but I really didn't think we would be hit by an earthquake - and we did. Fortunately, it didn't do any actual damage; in fact, I don't think anything in Puerto Rico was damaged. Of course, the big risk when you get earthquakes in the ocean is tsunamis - but that didn't happen. In the meantime, I've got a tropical storm overhead as I am recording this podcast. Tropical Storm Karen has arrived in Puerto Rico later than expected. It was supposed to come this morning but it didn't get here until this afternoon, although "Karen" doesn't sound particularly menacing, and it's living up to its name. It's really just a little rain, not too much wind; so that's not bad.

Disaster in the Cryptocurrency Markets

The real disaster is not here in Puerto Rico with earthquakes and tropical storms; it's the disaster that is unfolding in the cryptocurrency markets. We are seeing some real carnage - a real bloodbath over there. I think this is just getting started, because we've finally really broken down on the Bitcoin chart, although the biggest declines today are in the alt coins. Bitcoin is down about 13% right now. But this about the high that Bitcoin is been in the last half hour. We're trading up around $8500. We did get as low as $8000; I think we maybe ticked below it briefly. That mean…
Ep. 503: How Government Inflated the Student Loan Bubble

21 september 2019 · 58 min
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How government programs drive up college tuitions

Is a college degree worth the cost? You decide

Fed Proving Me Right

As I surmised, when I recorded my podcast on Wednesday, it seems pretty clear that the Federal Reserve has already returned to quantitative easing. And that didn't take long, because they just ended QT (quantitative tightening) and they've already begun QE. - Although, the Fed is not going to admit that that's what they're doing. Apart from proving me right, which was one of my forecasts from the very beginning, even before the Fed was talking about ending QE, I said they could never end it before they even started it.

Monetary Roach Motel

I had forecast what the Fed was going to do before they did it. And when they announced quantitative easing, not only did I say it was a mistake, but I said the Fed was checking us into a monetary roach motel from which we could never check out. It was the delusion that we could check out - the Fed was able to convince the markets that it was a temporary policy and that they would only be doing it in an emergency, then they would unwind the policy and shrink their balance sheet and the market believed them.

QE Plus Zero Interest Rates Equals Bigger Problem

I didn't believe them, and I was warning everybody that the Fed was either lying or didn't know what they were talking about or foolish, but the markets bought into this nonsense. So, clearly, if the Fed were going to go back to quantitative easing, they would basically be admitting that the policy was a failure. Because the policy was intended to be temporary, not permanent. If they have to do it again, then it proves that it wasn't temporary. Again, what I said, by doing quantitative easing in conjunction with lowering interest rate…
QE by Any Other Name Still Stinks – Ep. 502

19 september 2019 · 47 min
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No Surprises from the Fed: Quarter Point Reduction

A lot has actually happened since I recorded my last podcast on Friday. I want to start with what happened today and then work backwards. First of all the big news of the day is the Federal Reserve did exactly what the markets expected and reduced interest rates by a quarter point.

Fed: "Mid-Course Correction"?

This is the second quarter point reduction since the Fed reversed course on monetary policy and started what it once called a 'mid-course correction". The markets didn't really like that, so the Fed kind of walked that back. Although, in the press conference today, Powell was asked about the "mid-course correction" and he kind of dodged it a little bit, but still maintained the pretense that all is well in the economy. But anyway, the Fed delivered the quarter point cut #2. It is now targeting the Fed Funds Rate at between 1.75% and 2%.

Short Term Interest Rates Back Below 2%

So we now have short-term interest rates back below 2% - certainly on the way to zero, maybe even lower, we'll see. Jerome Powell was specifically asked about negative interest rates during the Q&A session following the announcement. He basically said the Fed is not really thinking about negative interest rates, or don't think they're going to be doing negative interest rates, but of course we'll see what happens when we get to zero, and the problems are not solved. The Fed may well do negative interest rates; they may well not want to let that cat out of the bag just yet.

Bullard: "Interest Rates are Too High"

At one point there was some anticipation that the Fed would do 50 basis points but by the time we actually got the announcement this morning, I don't think anybody was really looking for 50 basis points. Although, in the decision to reduce rates, Jim Bull…
Gold to Decouple from Treasuries – Ep. 501

14 september 2019 · 57 min
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Dow 200 Points from Record High

It was pretty quiet today in the equity markets; the Dow Jones managed to inch up 37 points, closing at 27,219 but, you know, how we're less than 200 points away from a new all-time record high in the Dow Jones.

Long on Bonds? Bad Friday 13th!

But the real action today was in the bond market. If you're suspicious on this Friday the 13th, and you were looking for bad luck, that's where you would have found it, if you were long the bond market. Now, I've been talking about this bond market bubble for a long time - it's been inflating for a long time. Whether or not it's actually popped, well, we'll have to wait a little longer to find out. But the carnage in the bond market that I mentioned on my last podcast has continued, with bonds continuing to suffer.

Biggest Single Day Decline on 10-Year Treasury

In fact, today was the biggest single day decline of the entire move. The yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 1.903%. Now, of course, it's still a very, very low yield, but when you consider that a week ago, we were as low as 1.429%. That is a huge increase, percentage-wise, in the yield on the 10-year bond, which means a big drop in prices.

Risk in Bonds if Interest Rates Go Up

I'm not sure the percentage decline; maybe 5 or 6% was the drop, which, in the stock market, that's not a big deal. Stock prices could drip 5% in a week - no big deal. But when the price of a bond drops by 5% in a week, especially a Treasury bond - people think about Treasury bonds as being risk-free - well, there's actually a lot of risk. Especially when you're buying a bond with such a low coupon. There's a lot of risk if interest rates go up, then the value of that bond is going to go down.

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By His Own Definition, Trump’s the Bonehead – Ep. 500

12 september 2019 · 1 uur 4 min
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Millions of Americans were Affected by the Terrorist Attack on 9/11

Today is the 18- year anniversary of the tragic events that surrounded the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon back in 2001. I do not wish to make light of the suffering of the individuals who died tragically, not only the people who lost their lives on the ground, but also the ones aboard the airplane that crashed into a field in Pennsylvania. And, of course, thousands of families were profoundly affected by those events, and they're still affected by those events today.

Loss of Liberty and Freedom

So, what I am about to say is not to minimize their suffering, but there are 300 million or so Americans who were not personally affected by those events, other than the fact that we certainly empathize with our fellow citizens who did have to endure the tragedy on a more personal level. But on a broader level, the biggest loss, historically, from those events is not just the loss of lives and the family members who lost loved ones, but all Americans who lost individual liberty and freedom.

Self-Inflicted Loss

That is the real tragedy, historic tragedy of 9/11. The tremendous loss of individual liberty and freedom. America today is a far less free society than it was prior to those attacks 18 years ago. And that means that the terrorists won. They didn't win based on the damage that they inflicted. They won based on the damage that we inflicted on ourselves. The self-inflicted wounds are much greater on a national scale than the terrorists' direct acts.

And it's not just the 300 million Americans who are alive today. It's all the Americans yet to be born who are going to be born into a society that is far less free than America would have been but for these attacks.

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Trump Puffs up His Presidency like His Steaks – Ep. 499

7 september 2019 · 50 min
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The Numbers Really Look Bad in Private Payrolls

Where the numbers really start to get bad is when you look at the private payrolls. There, they were expecting 150,000 private sector jobs created. The private sector jobs are far more important than the government jobs. The private sector jobs are self-sustaining. The tax payers are on the hook for paying the salaries of the government workers and the private sector employees, by and large are actually productive. They're making our lives better.

Manufacturing is Very Weak

They were looking for 150,000 private sector jobs; we got just 96,000 jobs. AND, they revised last month's private payrolls down from 148,000 to 131,000. Manufacturing - very weak: they were looking for 8,000 jobs - instead, we added just 3,000 manufacturing jobs in August and last month, July, they originally said that we created 16,000 manufacturing jobs and we only created 4,000 manufacturing jobs.

34,000 Jobs Created in Category "Government"

Now if you actually look at the breakdown of all the jobs that were created, 34,000 jobs were created in the category of "government". So, of all the different job categories, the one that added the most was government - 34,000 jobs. I think about 20,000 of these people were temporary hires associated with the 2020 Census. Where's the money coming from to pay for these government jobs? It's being borrowed. We're borrowing more money to hire more government workers. Of course, ultimately the taxpayers are on the hook for paying all these salaries, for paying interest on the money borrowed, to pay all these salaries.

Slowest Job Growth in Private Sector Creation in 8 Years

In fact, if you look at the private sector job creation so far in the Trump Presidency, this year, 2019, is on track to have the slowest growth in private sector jo…
U.S. Manufacturing Weakest in 10 Years – Ep. 498

4 september 2019 · 45 min
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Silver DID Join Gold's Party

Back in mid-July I titled my podcast, "Is Silver Finally Joining Gold's Party?". Well, I think we know the answer to that question. Since I recorded that podcast about a month and a half ago, the price of silver is up another 15%. In fact, it's up better than 30% since the end of May. Silver having a sterling performance today. As I am recording this podcast, it's about an hour after the close of the U.S. market, we're up almost 90 cents an ounce. We're at 19.22.

Gold Still Meeting Resistance at $1,550

Gold, not quite having as strong a day as silver; gold isn't making a new high. It's up $19.50 on the day: $1548. Still having some problems with the $1550 resistance area. GLD, the exchange-traded ETF did make a new high for this move, but the spot market did not register a new high - but I think that's just a matter of days - if not hours - before that happens.

Silver is Leading the Charge

Because silver is leading the charge. It's leading gold higher; pretty much the way I said. A week ago, I titled my podcast, "Hi Ho Silver, Away" and that prompted a number of people to comment that somehow I had just capped the silver rally by getting too optimistic on silver. Well, that was a week ago. We just hit $18.00, we're now over $19.00, and I said on that podcast, I thought we would have a pretty quick move up to about $20, and once we take out $20, I think this thing could really, really take off.

Overdue Move Down in the Dollar

What is going to be the catalyst, I think, for a much bigger move up in both gold and silver is going to be the long overdue move down in the dollar. Paradoxically, when the dollar starts its decline, it is even possible that gold and silver take a bit of a breather, or maybe pull back a little bit, in terms of dollars, but pull back even mo…
Andrew Yang Debunked: Free Stuff Is Not Freedom – Ep. 497

2 september 2019 · 1 uur 10 min
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and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4

Let's Debunk Andy Yang's Platform

I decided to take a little time out on my Labor Day to record a podcast debunking Democratic Presidential Candidate Andrew Yang. I've been getting a lot of emails about Yang; especially since he did the Joe Rogan Podcast about six months ago. He said a lot of things that certain people find appealing, so I've been asked to comment on him and I've seen other notes about Andy Yang and I wanted to talk about him because, number one, he is rising in the polls. He's now in sixth place among the Democratic candidates; he's polling at about 3% ant that puts him ahead of established politicians like Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, so he's gaining in popularity and I think the trend is going to continue.

Yang Rising in the Polls

The next Democratic Debate is coming up in about a week and a half and they're no longer going to have two debates; they've narrowed it down to just ten candidates and Andy Yang is one of those 10. I think as there are fewer candidates in the race, Yang is going to get more and more attention from the media and I think he is going to rise in the polls.

Attractive Among a Bunch of Democratic Socialists

To me, he is like the Bernie Sanders of this campaign. Sanders, and "Feeling the Bern"… he was popular in the 2016 campaign, mainly because he was the only alternative to Hillary Clinton, who was extremely unpopular. So, given that matchup and there was only two choices, it made it very easy for Sanders to gain a lot of support. He's having a much harder time galvanizing that support this time because people have a lot of alternatives. If you want a Democratic Socialist, there's a bunch of them to choose from.

Clearly a Smart Guy… But

But a guy like like Andy Yang, a younger guy, and clearly a smart guy. I had not watched his appeara…
The Coming Financial Hurricane Will Be a Cat 5 – Ep. 496

31 augustus 2019 · 1 uur 2 min
Afspelen

Recorded August 30, 2019 Lees meer

Don't miss my upcoming appearances:

The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5

The Dallas Money Show October 13-14

and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4

Waiting for Hurricane Dorian

When I recorded my last podcast on Tuesday evening, we were getting ready for Hurricane Dorian, which was supposed to pass by the south coast 0f Puerto Rico on Wednesday. But when I woke up on Wednesday morning, the meteorologists had the hurricane pretty much coming right over my house. It had changed course and had moved north, and it was supposed to come right through Puerto Rico, rather than just go by it to the South. But then the hurricane kept moving north, and it ended up missing Puerto Rico completely. We were here, the kids were home from school, everybody was battened down waiting for what at that time was maybe a strong tropical storm… maybe a category 1 hurricane.

Puerto Rico Spared from Hurricane

But we didn't even get a rain drop. Not even a gust of wind, as the hurricane just missed Puerto Rico to the north. I think it did go by the U.S. and British Virgin Islands - didn't really do much damage, there, because the store hadn't intensified but Puerto Rico's gain will be Florida's loss. The storm did not go over Puerto Rico, and initially it was supposed to go over the Dominican Republic, and the mountains there, it's a much bigger island, and it would have really beaten up the storm, but because the storm was really uninterrupted, and it has been over water the entire time, now it looks like it will be a category 4 when it hits somewhere along the Florida coast. It looks like a pretty powerful storm.

Broken Window Theory

You're going to hear, as is always the case, economists are going to be saying, "Oh, well, this is good for GDP." Whenever there's a hurricane, people say, "Oh, look! We have to spend all this money repairing and rebuilding everything that was destroyed." But that is not good for the economy. If you haven't…
Hi Ho Silver, Away – Ep. 495

28 augustus 2019 · 58 min
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Recorded August 27, 2019 Lees meer

Real Significant Action in the Market: Gold and Silver

The real significant action today was in the gold & silver market. I wanted to mention today that on Friday, the U.S . dollar sold and then today we're back at 98. So the dollar is not weakening against other foreign currencies. In fact, most people are still talking about the strong dollar. Even Donald Trump talks about the fact that we have a strong dollar. Now, Trump is bothered by the fact that we have a strong dollar, and he wishes it wasn't as strong, but he keeps talking about the strong dollar and everybody acknowledges that the dollar is strong.

Silver is a Great Buy

The problem is: the dollar is not strong. The price of gold going up shows you that the dollar is not strong. Gold was up $16 an ounce: we closed at $1542.50. This is the highest close in over 6 years for the price of gold; but the real star today was silver. Silver was up 53 cents - $18.17. It's been a while now since silver was above $18. If you have been listening to my podcasts, you know that I have been pounding the table on silver. I've been telling people that silver is the key; it is really cheap relative to gold. In fact, it was better than 90:1. You needed more than 90 ounces of silver to buy a single ounce of gold. That was an all-time record low for the price of silver. Now we're at 85. The ratio has moved back in silver's favor, but you still need 85 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. That is historically extremely cheap. In fact, the only time it was cheaper was when it was 90. So it's still a great buy.

Cash in some Gold to buy Silver

I have been telling people, even at SchiffGold - we have actually been calling clients who we know own gold and have them sell us back their gold and buy silver, because you can get so much silver for your gold right now that it is a real bargain. Silver has never been this cheap, and so if you have gold and don't have any silver, it makes sense to buy som…
Trump Loses It on Twitter – Ep. 494

24 augustus 2019 · 50 min
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Recorded August 23, 2019 Lees meer

A Bad Day for Everybody Except the Democratic Candidates

If you are one of the Democrats running for President, today was a pretty good day for you. But it was a bad day for just about everybody else; I guess other than gold investors, which I clearly am, but I'm also an American and I hate to see bad things happening to my country, even though I know bad things are going to happen. I would just rather be among those who profit from these events than suffer additional monetary loss in addition to the losses you endure as an American citizen as a result of the ensuing chaos and loss of liberties.

President Trump Lost It on Twitter

Today, President Trump really kind of lost it. On Twitter. Real time. Maybe what Trump needs is somebody to be his official Twitter filter. Maybe there should be a policy where when Trump wants to tweet, there is like a one or two hour cooling off period where the tweets get reviewed, maybe edited, maybe someone gets to talk a little sense into him before he tweets. But today's tweet storm probably really indicates that the White House, I think, is in disarray. I think the President realizes that the air is coming out of this big, fat, ugly bubble. That he's not going to get out of Dodge.

CBO Revised Up Budget Deficit Estimate Again

He's trying to pretend that the economy is in great shape, yet we're hearing rumors that we need a payroll tax cut, we need stimulus for the economy. Why would you stimulate an economy that's doing great? If we have the greatest economy in the history of America, why does it need even more fiscal stimulus? After all, we already have the most fiscal stimulus ever. We have the largest budget deficits in history. In fact the Congressional Budget Office this week came out and revised up again their estimates for the deficit.

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Media Flips Narrative as Recession Risk Rises – Ep. 493

21 augustus 2019 · 53 min
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Recorded August 20, 2019 Lees meer

The Day the Yield Curve Inverted

I am finally back in the United States - well, in Puerto Rico, technically is part of the United States, it's a territory - after my extended trip through Italy. I recorded that one podcast, and on the very next day, we had probably the most volatile day in memory. What happened that morning was that we got some weak economic data that came out of China and then we got some more weak economic data that came out of Germany and that immediately caused yields to drop around the world. In the United States, for the first time, the yields on the 10-year treasury dipped below the Fed funds rate. So the entire yield curve, out to 10 years was inverted. In fact, the 30 year yield hit a new low for this whole "quantitative easing - zero percent interest rate" cycle. The 10-year did not quite do that yet, but the 30-year did, and as soon as this happened, as soon as the curve inverted, I think it triggered a lot of sell programs in the stock market.

The Media was Waiting to Flip the Narrative

Stocks got clobbered, in fact, by the end of the day the Dow Jones was down 800 points; one of the worst point drops in Dow Jones history - not one of the worst percentage drops, but 800 points is a lot of points. And of course, as soon as this happened, the media began to cover the possibility of a recession to a much greater degree than they had in the past. If you remember, I said that this was coming. I said that I thought that maybe the media was waiting to flip the narrative on Trump, which is exactly what they've done.

Fake News?

All of a sudden, a media which was pretty much buying the booming economy narrative now is questioning whether the economy is actually strong. In fact, now you have Donald Trump accusing the media of being involved in some kind of conspiracy to make the economy look bad. In other words, a lot of the data that's been coming out indicating that the economy is weak, that it is slowing, that thi…
Gold Traders Still Don’t Understand the Rally – Ep. 492

14 augustus 2019 · 42 min
Afspelen

Catch Peter on Simon Black's podcast, "Sovereign Man" recorded yesterday in Italy. Lees meer

https://www.sovereignman.com/category/podcast/

Catch Me on Sovereign Man

There's been a lot of action over the last couple of days in the U.S. stock market. In fact, the market just closed a few minutes ago, as I am recording. It is now after 10pm in the evening here in Italy. If you don't already know by now, I am out here in Italy with my son, and that's why I'm not recording as many podcasts as I normally would. Although, I did record a podcast with my friend Simon Black, of Sovereign Man. I'm actually staying with Simon and some other guests of his for a few days in Umbria. We leave tomorrow for Florence, then Venice and then home. So I recorded a podcast with Simon yesterday. We talked for about an hour. So if you want more material, just go ahead and have a listen to that. You'll get over another hour discussion.

Check out my Debate with Art Laffer on YouTube

Also, I put up the YouTube video this morning that I meant to put up a couple of weeks ago. I uploaded
The U.S. Economy Was Stronger Without Economic Advisors – Ep. 491

6 augustus 2019 · 37 min
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Recorded August 6, 2019 Lees meer

Trade War: New Tariffs and Accusation of Currency Manipulation

Yesterday was the worst day of the year for the Dow Jones. At one point, we were down about 950-odd points. I think we closed down under 800; 767 points. But it was a follow-though from the weakness that we had on Friday and the news, too, that we had on Friday about the escalation of the trade war, where Donald Trump announced the imposition of new tariffs on China.

Normal Movements in a Currency Market

But what happened overnight in China was the yuan went below 7:1 against the dollar. This is the first time it has been that low since China started to allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar. It had been appreciating… now 7 is not that much weaker than it was when Donald Trump became President. The Chinese yuan is only down 2-3% since Trump took office. That's not a whole lot, when it comes to a currency. Everybody is up in arms; now Trump is upset that the Chinese are weakening their currency, when the currency has not weakened very much. In fact, the U.S. dollar is down about 2 or 3% against the Swiss franc since Trump became President. So what's the big deal? Switzerland isn't accusing the United States of manipulating its currency, just because the currency dropped a few percent. These are normal movements in a currency market.

Dow Trading Higher after China Blinks?

But the minute the yuan dropped below 7:1, everybody was saying, "Currency War!" and "Who knows how much further the yuan is going to drop?" And so that sparked a lot of selling in the Chinese market. And so the U.S. market went down… I think the futures went down maybe about 300 Dow points or so before we opened. But then, as soon as we opened, we sold off hard and we did have a little bit of a rally into the close, so we closed off the lows, but as soon as the U.S. stock market closed, the futures sold off again. I think at one point last night, the Dow was off another 4-500 points before reve…
Jobs Hype Won’t Work Much Longer – Ep. 490

3 augustus 2019 · 56 min
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Recorded August 2, 2019 Lees meer

July NonFarm Payroll Report: Great? Not so Great

This morning we got the release of the July NonFarm payroll report, and the general consensus among the analysts seem to be that it was s strong report, a solid report. I saw Larry Kudlow this morning on Fox Business talking about another "solid performance" in job creation. But once again, once you look beneath the surface, and you don't have to look too deep, this is not a good report.

The Bar Was Set Pretty Low

First of all, the bar was set pretty low. The consensus was 151,000 jobs. That's not a lot of jobs, so it's not that hard to beat it, and we did. We got 164,000 jobs. But the reason we beat it was because we created more government jobs than the market expected. For private payrolls, the consensus was 160,000 jobs and we only created 148,000 jobs. So we created 12,000 fewer private sector jobs than had been expected and we made up the difference by creating government jobs, whether they are for the Federal government or state government.

Public Sector Jobs vs Private Sector Jobs

But there's a very big difference between private sector jobs and public sector jobs, in that the taxpayer isn't on the hook to pay the salaries of the private sector workers. They're working in companies that are generating profits, so the salaries are paid for by the profits that the businesses generate.

The Government Does Not Generate Profits

The government doesn't generate any profit. It just has to suck up tax revenue; we have to pay for these. So it's not a good thing that government gets more bloated and hires more people. Especially since a lot of government bureaucrats tend to complicate things. They make everybody less efficient. If we're hiring more regulators to slow down the economy and get in everybody's way, that's not a good thing. I'd rather have a lean, mean government. Of course, that's not going to happen.

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Fed Trumped by Tariff Card – Ep. 489

2 augustus 2019 · 43 min
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Recorded August 1, 2019 Lees meer

Trifecta Podcasts this Week

I hadn't planned on recording a podcast today; I did one yesterday and I figured I'd wait until Friday, get the … payroll numbers and finish up the week with a Friday podcast. But so much action in the markets today, that I just couldn't resist. I knew there would be a lot of people who would be excited to get a podcast today, so we're going to have a trifecta - we're going to have three days in a row of podcasts.

Nobody on CNBC saw the Rate Cut Coming… But I Did

Before I even get into a lot of the market action today, I want to talk a little bit about what I heard on CNBC this morning. They're still talking about the rate cut that we got yesterday and the host said, "Six months ago, nobody could have possible predicted… nobody would have believed that we'd be here today and the Fed would be cutting rates. And nobody could have possibly believed that the Fed would be ending the quantitative tightening program, because it's now over!" So, according to CNBC, nobody could have possibly predicted this, yet it happened anyway. Wait a minute: what about me? I predicted it. I said it was going to happen. I didn't say it on CNBC because they won't let me on, but I said it on my podcast. I even said it on their competitor network, Fox Business. Maybe if they watched Fox Business they would've known about this.

I Predicted, Live, That December Hike Would the Last Hike

So, really, what they meant is nobody on CNBC saw it coming. None of their anchors, none of their regular guests saw an end to quantitative tightening. None of them saw the rate cut. But I did. Not only did I predict that the Fed would cut rates, I predicted, live, that the December hike was the last hike. and that the very next move by the Fed would be a cut. And that is exactly what they did.

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Rate Cut First Step on the Road to Zero – Ep. 488

1 augustus 2019 · 50 min
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I Bet an Ounce of Gold that Fed would Cut Rates Lees meer

Today I officially won an ounce of gold! I am referencing a bet that I made back in January of this year. During a panel discussion, I said that I though that the Fed was more likely to cut rates in 2019, than hike them. I was the only person on the panel who believed that. Everybody else thought that the Fed would be raising rates, which pretty much was the conventional wisdom in early January.

Check out My Forecasts in December and January on YouTube

So today, the Fed cut rates, which is what I have been saying they would do. In fact, not only did I put up a small YouTube video of that bet, as well as a video of the entire panel on my YouTube channel. But I also cut a minute or so segment from my interview on the Monday in December 2018 the week the Fed raised rates, 2 days later on a Wednesday. That was the final hike where the Fed went from 2% to 2.25%, to 2.25% to 2.5%.

Fed Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points

I was interviewed by Liz Claman- by the way I will be on Liz Claman's show tomorrow - they've renamed the show it is the Claman Countdown. But when I was on Liz' show back in December I made the forecast then: If the Fed raised rates in December that week, which, I thought they would, (everybody believed they would - they wouldn't want to disappoint the markets) I said that it would be the last hike, and that the very next move that the Fed would make would be to cut rates. And that is exactly what they did today. They cut rates by 25 basis points.

December's Rate Hike Erased

So they basically took away the last rate hike and the rate is now where it was prior to the December rate hike. Now, I believe that cutting rates was a mistake. I think the Fed should have already raised rates by more than they have. Not because the U.S. economy is in great shape, because it's in lousy shape. It is a gigantic bubble.

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Peter Schiff Challenge: It’s Inflation, NOT Deflation

30 juli 2019 · 2 uur 45 min
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Two Camps: Inflation vs Deflation Lees meer

I did the first live stream a couple of weeks ago; that was on bitcoin. I got a lot of feedback on that one and a lot of people were coming up with potential topics for the next one. I think the most common request was for inflation or deflation: which one is it going to be? Because there are a lot of people out there who see the world similar to the way I do, as far as the problems that are confronting the U.S. economy in particular but the global economy, but everybody seems to fall into two camps as to how it is all going to go down; whether it is deflation that is coming - we should prepare for that, or whether it is inflation that's coming and you should prepare for that. Now I am an inflationist. I am in that camp. Other people in that camp may be, like Jim Rickards or Jimmy Rogers or Marc Faber - there are a number of people who would be in the inflation camp. Deflation would be guys like Robert Prechter, Harry Dent, there are a number of guys that are looking for deflation.

Defining Terms

Now before I really get into it, I want to talk a little bit about the terms, so we know what we're talking about. Let's define the terms. What is inflation? What is deflation? The actual definition of inflation, the actual meaning of the word, is an expansion of the money supply.

What does "Inflate" Really Mean?

That's what inflation is; it's not about prices. If you think of the word, "inflate" - what does inflate mean? It means to expand. You inflate a balloon; when you inflate a balloon, it expands. Prices don't expand - they go up, they go down; they don't expand. What expands? Money supply. When the government creates money, the money supply expands, like a balloon. It blows up. So that's what inflation is, it is an expansion of the money supply.

What is Deflation?

Deflation is the opposite; it is a contraction of the money supply. Now when you inflate the money supply-you create more money - you have more money bidding up pri…
Borrowing Binge Masks Worst Economy Ever – Ep. 487

27 juli 2019 · 56 min
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Participate in my next YouTube Live Challenge next Monday, July 29, 9pm EDT Lees meer

The Topic: It’s Inflation, NOT Deflation

What is Really Happening to Corporate Profits?

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rose to all-time record highs today; nominal highs, of course. The Dow Jones didn't quite make it to a new high, it did close better than 50 points higher - 27,192.45, but probably the most interesting thing about the record high, is what's actually happening to corporate profits. I'm talking about operating profits, which are profits before you subtract interest and taxes. I'm looking at some new statistics that came out today. There were some revisions that came out from the government; some of them on the GDP, which I will get to a bit later in the podcast.

Corporate Operating Profits Moved Sideways Since 2014

Just looking at corporate operating profits, it turns out that operating profits actually peaked in the third quarter of 2014. That is while Obama was still President, a few years before Trump was President. So corporate profits - operating profits peaked in Q3 of 2014. And they basically have been going sideways ever since, although they have been dipping recently. If you take a look at the last quarter, operating profits are now the lowest they've been since 2011.

Profits Have Gone up - but Not Operating Profits

Now, the Dow Jones finished 2011 at about 12,000 - 12,200, I think was the end print. Well, we've more than doubled since then, but operating profits haven't gone anywhere. How are you doubling stock values when the profits are staying the same? Now, of course it's not the profits - profits have gone up - but not operating profits. But operating profits are really more important if you want to look at what's going on in the companies in these averages. Operating profits is how much money the companies make from operating their businesses.

Tax Cuts Boosted the Stock Market

So, actual profits have risen even though operating profits have not. Why …
Trump Buries Tea Party He Once Praised – Ep. 486

24 juli 2019 · 49 min
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Participate in my next YouTube Live Challenge next Monday, July 29, 9pm EDT Lees meer

The Topic: It's Inflation, NOT Deflation

Not to Praise the Tea Party but to Bury It

President Trump originally won the Republican nomination by appealing largely to what used to be the Tea Party. A lot of Tea Party Republicans ended up embracing Donald Trump; in fact I think a lot of the support that might have otherwise gone to Rand Paul (a Tea Party favorite who went to Washington in 2010 as part of the Tea Party movement); a lot of his thunder was stolen by Trump, who appealed a lot to Tea Party Republicans.

Even Tea Party Corpse Seems to Approve of its Demise

When Trump went to Washington, he wasn't exactly praising the Tea Party, but few people expected that he went to Washington to bury it, either. But that's just exactly what he just did by agreeing to this budget deal with the Democrats. The Tea Party is dead! President Trump just put the final nail into the coffin, lowered it in the ground and covered it in dirt. The irony is, nobody seems happier about this than the corpse itself! The Tea Party Republicans are not up in arms against the Commander-in-Chief. Everybody still loves Donald Trump.

Where is Rick Santelli?

Even the father of the Tea Party, Rick Santelli, (he is credited for getting it all going) where's Rick? Where are his tears, where's the eulogy as his child is being buried? Again, no criticism, everybody thinks Trump is great… As I said, I was back at Freedom Fest, which they should have just re-named "Trump Fest".

Continuation of Policies Once Criticized by Candidate Trump

Donald Trump is simply continuing all of the policies that he once criticized in order to become President. When he was running for the Republican nomination, he was extremely critical of the big deficits under Obama. He was even critical of the big deficits under Bush. That was one of the things I liked about Trump. He was criticizing big spenders of both parties. He was supposed to be di…
Expect More Inflation but Don’t Expect the Fed to Fight It – Ep. 485

20 juli 2019 · 22 min
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A Podcast from Freedom Fest in Las Vegas Lees meer

I'm still here in Last Vegas at Freedom Fest, but I wanted to take some time out to come up to my hotel room here and record a short podcast - otherwise I'd have to wait until Tuesday. There's been a lot of stuff that's happened over the last few days, so I definitely wanted to record something; the quality might not be up to snuff. But I figured I'd talk a little bit about what's been going on in the market.

The Action Was in the Metals Markets

Really, the stock markets - not much action. All the major markets finished the day and the week lower; bond prices a bit higher. The real action, though, was in the metals markets. You wouldn't really know it to look at the price of gold, which was only up maybe about a dollar or two on the week, although we did have a big $20 rise yesterday, followed by a $20 drop today. I'll get into why that happened in a minute.

Strength in Silver

But the real action was in silver, which finished the week better than up 90 cents, I believe. So, a very strong week for silver - even on days when gold was down, silver was up. In fact, even this morning, silver was up for a while while gold was down. I titled my last podcast, "Is Silver Finally Joining Gold’s Party?" and, as of now, it really looks like the answer to that question is yes. We've see a lot of strength in silver.

Clarida Shakes Markets with Rate Cut Comments

In fact, we had the biggest two-day gain, going back several years, in the price of silver. The big jump that we has yesterday really was set into motion by some Fed comments, although that probably was just a catalyst; it probably would have moved up anyway. But in particular, we had Clarida came out and he said that the Fed should not wait for the data to turn before cutting rates. Meaning that, "We should cut rates, anyway, even if we don't get negative data; even if it doesn't look like the economy is going into recession, we should just preemptively cut rates."

Our Spo…
Is Silver Finally Joining Gold’s Party? – Ep. 484

17 juli 2019 · 42 min
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See Peter at the Las Vegas Freedom Fest – July 17-20 Lees meer

https://www.freedomfest.com/

Save $50 using promo code SCHIFF

93 Ounces of Silver for One Ounce of Gold

I think the most interesting development today in the market was in the metals market. I've been talking on the podcast for some time about the spread between gold and silver, and the fact that silver has never been this cheap, in terms of gold. The spread got to almost 93:1, where you can buy 93 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold - which is incredibly cheap.

Some Silver Stocks up 10% or More on the Day

It's a great time to be buying silver, and I've really been pounding the table on people buying silver. I recommended it again last night last night on my live YouTube event, I recommended it to my Managed Account clients on our last webinar, encouraging people to contact their brokers and maybe buy more silver stocks. In fact we had silver stocks today; some stocks up 10% or more on the day. Very, very significant jump up in the price of silver stocks, even thought the price of silver itself did not have that big a move. It was only up 19 cents.

Silver Up as Price of Gold Fell

But the significance of the move is that gold was down $8. So not only did silver have a relatively large move, although not large enough to normally cause silver stock to rise by 10%, but what was significant about it was that it rose as the price of gold was falling. This could signal - and it was looking to me technically that we saw some indications of this last week (I added to my own silver stocks last week - but it looked to me like this trend was about to change. We're still above 90:1. We're close to getting back to 90:1 even. But this is still an incredibly good opportunity to buy physical silver; to buy silver oriented stocks. But what I think this is showing me is that the bull market in gold is getting ready to kick into a higher gear.

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Peter Schiff’s Bitcoin Challenge Live Stream

16 juli 2019 · 3 uur 6 min
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First Live YouTube Event Lees meer

Welcome to the Peter Schiff Bitcoin Challenge. First of all, I have to make a confession. I really was not familiar with YouTube live streaming and live chatting, and so the way I thought about this in my head; I thought that people were going to be able to talk. Like a Skype group conversation. People would be able to actually engage me and make their case in their own voice, and to be able to have a little back and forth.

Post a Cogent Argument

I didn't realize that the way I had to do this was with a chat, where people who want to make a point have to do it by chat. So I'm going to try my best. Hopefully, this format can work. There are so many chats going by, it is hard to keep track of them. But I want to see if people can put together a cogent, concise argument. Think of it like you're composing a tweet. I can try to address each point, and try to take in what you're trying to tell me as to why I'm wrong about Bitcoin, and why I should actually be embracing it as digital gold.

Don't Forget to Subscribe to My Podcasts

So, what I'm going to try to do is to see the best points that are being made on this chat, then read it out loud, and then address it, make a statement and the person who authored that particular text listens to what I have to say, if they want to do a follow up or something, they can do that, and hopefully I will see that follow up. I'm doing this chat in my home studio in Connecticut. I'm in the studio where I normally do my video blogs, so if you're new to this channel, you should subscribe it. Two or three times a week a do these video blogs (podcasts) where I talk about all sorts of things that are relevant to people who buy Bitcoin.

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This Time Rate Cuts Will Backfire – Ep. 483

12 juli 2019 · 1 uur 1 min
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Tune in to my first live YouTube event Monday, July 15, 9pm Eastern time U.S. Lees meer

Call in and convince me that I’m wrong on bitcoin!

DJIA Record High Today

Dow Jones set a record high today, closing above 27,000 for the first time ever. We added 227.88 points on the day. We closed at 27,088.08. The record high, 27,088.45 set just before the close. You know, we added to yesterday's gains, the S&P 500 was also up again - not taking out the record that was set yesterday, but we did, for the second day in a row managed to trade above the 3000 mark, although we have yet to close above it - ever so close today: 2999.91. But a very small percentage gain for the S&P, not even a quarter of 1%.

Russell 2000 Down .5%

Broader market was weaker. The NASDAQ was actually down slightly - 6.5 points. The weakest index being the Russell 2000, down almost a half of a percent. It was lower during the day. Again, the Russell 2000 is the index that is most sensitive to the domestic economy. I've pointed out on this podcast many times that it is the index that is the weakest, and is not even close to making a new high. And I don't believe it will. I think the broader market is going to roll over, and the small caps are going to lead the way.

Traders Weren't Paying Attention to Bond Market

In fact, if the traders were paying attention to what was going on in the bond market, we probably would have seen a bigger selloff today. I think we still have some euphoria left over from the two-day "Dove Fest" where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was up on Capitol Hill basically green-lighting the July rate cut, which is coming up in a couple of weeks. Remember, when we got that better than expected nonfarm payroll report, the odds of a rate cut in July went down from about 100% to maybe 91%, and the odds really came down for the probability of a 50 basis points cut. So it was pretty much 91%, I think, 25 basis points, and that was it.

Odds of Rate Cut in July Back up to 100%

But after Powell relea…

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