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44 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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Ep. 043 - The Midterms and the 2028 Datacenter Buildout (Datacenters) | Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Jordan Nanos, Maya Barkin, Wayne Ma
4 november 2026 · 43 min
Recorded Election Day morning, before any results: SemiAnalysis’s model has about 62 GW of US datacenter additions in 2028, most not yet under construction and sitting in states electing a governor. Texas alone is close to 30%. Lees meer
Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Maya Barkin (@mayabarkin), Wayne Ma (@waynema) and Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) on why 2027 is largely locked in, why the backlash crosses party lines, and how developers can win over their neighbors.
Since recording: the AP called Texas for Gina Hinojosa, who would pause datacenter permitting, and Georgia for Keisha Lance Bottoms, and Democrats took a 3-2 majority on Georgia’s Public Service Commission, which sets power rates. (As of Nov 4, 2:35 PM ET.)
Read the article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/the-datacenter-backlash-goes-bipartisan
0:00 Intro
0:54 The 2028 Buildout
5:32 Pause vs. Conditions
10:03 Bipartisan Backlash
14:37 Grid Risk
16:30 Tax Incentives
19:51 Texas
24:34 Risks to 2027
30:23 Georgia
32:31 Federal Outlook
35:20 Winning Over Neighbors
42:04 What We're Watching
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Ep. 042 - GDPx: The Benchmark for Frontier AI
3 november 2026 · 52 min
SemiAnalysis just launched GDPx, a benchmark built with 14 specialized data partners across 11 domains where frontier intelligence earns the highest returns. Even the best model scores just 12%. Lees meer
Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Max Kan (@maxkan) and Andrew Megalaa (@AndrewMegalaa) to explain why most popular benchmarks are broken, the difference between difficult and unfair tasks, how a real private equity deal room became a finance environment, why binary grading still matters, and what the leaderboard says about Opus 5.5, GPT-6 Astra and Gemini 4 Carbon.
Explore GDPx: https://gdpx.semianalysis.com
Read the article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/gdpx-measuring-frontier-model-capabilities
Want your model evaluated or to partner on a future version? gdpx@semianalysis.com
0:00 Cold Open
0:10 Launch Week Chaos
4:02 Broken Benchmarks
5:15 Difficult vs. Unfair
7:33 Building GDPx
9:25 Frontier Domains
11:02 The 11 Domains
14:12 Domain Experts
15:00 Models vs. Experts
19:36 Model Behavior
20:44 The Leaderboard
22:33 Cyber and Safety
24:32 Frontier vs. Day-to-Day
27:13 The Finance Task
31:27 Binary vs. Partial Grading
36:48 AI and Jobs
42:43 Quick Takes
43:44 Google's Comeback
47:25 Public vs. Private Tasks
49:52 What's Next
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Ep. 041 - EMERGENCY: Anthropic’s S-1 Is Here (Tokenomics/ Markets) | Doug O’Laughlin, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Joey Brookhart, Jordan Nanos
27 oktober 2026 · 55 min
Anthropic filed its S-1: revenue per dollar of compute is up 5.2x since Q1 2025, a customer who spent $1 last year now spends $9, and incremental gross margins are running near 90%. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Doug O'Laughlin (@fabknowledge), Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Joey Brookhart (@SaasquatchC) break down profitability, the half trillion in compute commitments, customer concentration, the 2027 compute roadmap, and whether OpenAI can keep up. Lees meer
0:00 Cold Open
0:53 Profitability
2:10 The Datacenter View
4:14 Compute Commitments
6:28 Incremental Margins
8:19 Customer Concentration
12:00 Top Customers
16:53 New Funding
18:54 Underpromise, Overdeliver
20:25 Elon and Neoclouds
25:14 Compute Efficiency
29:40 Can Anyone Catch Up?
33:26 Surprises and Runway
37:47 Market Reaction
39:02 Holiday Usage
42:56 Is OpenAI Cooked?
48:44 Government Revenue
50:45 Wrap-Up
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Ep. 040 - ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool, and Its Patents Show How (AI Supply Chain) | Jordan Nanos, Howie, Sherry Zhang
23 oktober 2026 · 35 min
Every hybrid bonder on the market today brings the die to the wafer. ASML's patents bring the wafer to the die.Sherry Zhang and Howie join Jordan Nanos (@jordananos) to dig into the patents behind ASML's die-to-wafer hybrid bonder, why a track-based design could beat Besi on alignment and particle control, and why HBM won't adopt die-to-wafer hybrid bonding before 2029. The team also looks at how China is using hybrid bonding to keep scaling past its lithography limits, and what larger photomasks mean for High-NA EUV.Chapters:0:00 The Patent Tip-Off1:53 Hybrid Bonding 1014:06 Die-to-Wafer vs Wafer-to-Wafer5:43 Back End vs Front End8:05 Why HBM Waits Until 202913:45 Everything Comes to the Die18:26 Alignment and Cleanliness22:48 Bonding Instead of Shrinking25:49 China's Toolmakers Step Up28:25 Bigger Masks for High-NA33:29 Two Tool Stacks?Read the full article: ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/asml-is-building-a-hybrid-bonding Lees meer
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Ep. 039 - [EMERGENCY] Our Numbers Are "Insane." Here's the Proof. (Datacenters) | Jeremie Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, Jordan Nanos
20 oktober 2026 · 35 min
Brad Gerstner put our 43 gigawatt forecast for 2027 on All-In, then again in his BG2 sit-down with Jensen, and called it too aggressive. The consensus counter sits near 25 GW, built on moratorium headlines and grid connection fears. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Jeremie Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower), who have been tracking the same capacity curve since March 2024, and it has barely moved across every model revision. So they aren't cutting it. They're raising it. Lees meer
Read the article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/datacenters-2027-the-year-of-acceleration
0:00 Cold Open
1:17 The 2027 Forecast Debate
2:21 Model Track Record
5:27 Where the Pushback Comes From
8:16 Delays and Haircuts
12:31 The Top 40 Sites
15:23 Leading Indicators
20:40 Modular Builds
25:41 Chips vs Datacenters
27:53 Responding to Brad Gerstner
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Ep. 038 - GLM 5.3 on AMD, NVIDIA, and Chinese Chips From Day One (InferenceX) | Kimbo Chen, Wenyao Gao, Jordan Nanos
14 oktober 2026 · 44 min
GLM 5.3 only attends to the tokens that matter. It still has to keep every one of them. Lees meer
Kimbo Chen (@kimbochen) and Wenyao Gao (@gao_wenyao) join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to dig into AMD catching NVIDIA on InferenceX, how post-training alone pushed an open-weight model within reach of Mythos, and whether Z.ai quietly tuned it for Chinese chips. The team also looks at how GLM 5.3 became a fallback when Claude and GPT refuse security work.
Chapters:
0:00 Cold Open
0:37 Sparse Attention 101
4:46 HiCache and HiSparse
10:13 AMD Catches NVIDIA
12:54 Capacity vs Bandwidth
18:44 The Frankenstein Flash
20:09 Mythos-Class From China?
22:52 Post-Training Pipeline
32:32 Chinese Chips, Day One
39:54 GLM 5.4 and Beyond
Read the full article: How GLM 5.3 Sparse Attention Affects HBM Memory Usage
https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/sparse-savings-persistent-demand-inside-glm53
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Ep. 037 - Who's Funding the $11 Trillion AI Buildout? (Capital Markets) | Dan Nishball, Jordan Nanos
9 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 23 min
H100 rental prices went up, on a GPU that should be sliding down its depreciation curve. That curve is what lenders underwrite. Daniel Nishball (@dnishball) kicks off our new Compute Capital Markets group by following the money through Nvidia's $497B backstops, ClusterMAX as a credit signal, and whether each token is profitable. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) brings the rental data. AI debt is about to pass auto loans. Lees meer
0:00 Opening
1:48 Nvidia's Backstop Universe
6:22 The $11T Funding Wall
17:25 Balance Sheet as a Service
26:27 ClusterMAX as Credit Risk
31:51 Why H100 Prices Rose
43:09 Token Profitability
58:05 You Can't Go Back
1:07:25 AI Debt vs Auto Loans
1:11:14 Inside Nvidia's Backstops
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Ep. 036 - $200 Buys $12,000 of Opus Tokens, We Bought Every Plan (AI Cloud TCO) | Max Kan, Jordan Nanos, Andrew Megalaa
7 oktober 2026 · 50 min
Pay Anthropic $200 a month and you can pull $12,000 of Opus 5.5 tokens at API pricing. Max Kan (@maxkan) and Andrew Megalaa bought every plan, OpenAI, Meta, xAI, MiniMax, Moonshot, Z.ai, Cursor, and measured every token type to find the ceiling. The catch isn't subsidy. Anthropic still books 50 to 60% gross margins on these plans, which means the API itself is the price gouge. Lees meer
0:00 Cold Open
1:03 Subsidies and Credits
5:23 Token Types and Cache
14:08 Model Value Charts
20:51 Test Methodology
26:54 Other Plans
31:26 Utilization and Limits
36:24 Token Efficiency
41:24 Open Models
44:22 Cyber and Capture
Read More: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-subscriptions-offer-5x
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Ep. 035 - Tech DD’s, Performance Projections, Benchmarks, Supply Chain, Investment Thesis (Consulting)| Abhilash Jain, Jordan Nanos
5 oktober 2026 · 35 min
Jordan (@JordanNanos) and Abhilash (@AbhilashJain17) discuss the clients SemiAnalysis consulting serves, custom projects like the inference simulator, how client work turns into research products, neocloud due diligence, and why SLAs decide who gets funded. They also discuss Feynman specs, de-specced memory, and a 20-trillion-parameter OpenAI model. Lees meer
0:00 Intro and Overview
2:27 Client Types
5:24 Custom Projects
9:47 Strategy Work
12:27 Consulting to Products
14:33 Neocloud Due Diligence
18:40 SLAs and Insurance
22:32 Risk Assessments
26:45 Build vs Buy
29:19 Favorites and Outlook
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Ep. 034 - Engrams: How DeepSeek Offloads KV Cache to DRAM and SSD (Core Research) | Jordan Nanos, Cam Quilici, Alec Ibarra, Bryan Shan
2 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 3 min
The InferenceX team is back after two months. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) is joined by Cam Quilici (@noslawextratost), Bryan Shan, and Alec Ibarra to discuss Engram and DRAM offloading, the AgentX benchmark and its profit calculator, TPU v7 on InferenceX, Vera Rubin vs Blackwell, fast tokens, and TileRT on NVIDIA GPUs. Lees meer
0:00 Intro
0:31 Engrams
12:27 AgentX Benchmark
16:36 Profit Calculator
23:40 TPU v7
32:03 Vera Rubin
40:49 Fast Tokens
49:33 TileRT
54:00 Chip Startups
1:01:31 Wrap Up
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Ep. 033 - ClusterMAX 3.0 Is Here! Neoclouds Ranked (Neoclouds, GPUs) | Sam Harshe, Pratt Bhatt, Jordan Nanos
24 september 2026 · 1 uur 9 min
ClusterMAX 3.0 is here. Sam Harshe (@sharshe02) and Pratt Bhatt (@PrathmeshBhat19) join Jordan Nanos (@jordannanos) after months of testing 77 GPU clouds. Some moved up, some moved down. Lees meer
Health checks, cache hit rates, NCCL recipes, agentic coding on clusters, a Linux kernel bug, neocloud security, SLAs and financing, NVIDIA's backstops, five-year-old H100s, and hosted RL training.
Read the full ClusterMAX 3.0 report: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/clustermax-30-the-industry-standard
ClusterMAX inquiries: clustermax@semianalysis.com0:00 Cold Open
1:32 The Rankings
6:58 Health Checks
13:26 Endpoint Cache Misses
16:40 Networking and NCCL
22:52 Vibe-Coded Infra
31:27 Bug Hunting
38:36 Security
45:43 Financing Neoclouds
56:33 Hosted Training and RL
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Ep. 032 - 300 Datacenter Bans, 3 Projects Delayed: Moratoriums Explained (Datacenter, Energy) | Maya Barkin, Reyk Knühtsen, Jordan Nanos
18 september 2026 · 54 min
More than 300 towns, cities, and counties have voted to pause data centers in the past 18 months. Maya Barkin (@mayabarkin) and Reyk Knühtsen (@robotknower) from the SemiAnalysis Data Center, Energy, and Industrials team join Jordan Nanos (@jordannanos) to explain what a moratorium actually is, how they mapped every one of them against the US project pipeline, and why only three projects are being delayed. Lees meer
Plus: the SpaceX de-annexation in Brownsville, New York vs Texas, why politicians love a moratorium, and the surprising amount of alpha in anti-data center Facebook groups. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) drops in from Bangkok.
Read More: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/everyone-says-datacenter-moratoriums
0:00 Intro
0:36 What Is a Moratorium
4:34 300 Moratoriums, 3 Projects
10:18 Behind the Meter Wins
14:04 Eight Conditions to Delay
17:06 The SpaceX De-Annexation
20:03 Cheap Political Signaling
32:03 New York vs Texas
41:14 City Council Alpha
46:32 Advice for Developers
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Ep. 031 - EMERGENCY EPISODE: Are We Doomed? | Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin, Max Kan, Joey Brookhart
16 september 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Emergency episode. Doug O'Laughlin (@Fabknowledge) , Joey Brookhart (@SaasquatchC), and Max Kan (@maxkan) join Jordan (@JordanNanos) to talk through Dario's "We Must Pace the Frontier" blog and the responses from Sam Altman and David Sacks. Does pacing actually mean less compute, or a lot more? Plus the Hugging Face incident, Moonshot serving Claude, and the security behaviour that keeps them up at night. Lees meer
0:00 Cold Open
2:50 Glorified Neoclouds
8:21 Pacing the Frontier
12:53 Safety Eats Compute
20:38 Hugging Face Lessons
30:52 Moonshot Serving Claude
36:37 The Coxson Resignation
38:27 Two-Year Predictions
49:19 Regulation Under Trump
57:21 Hotter or Cooler
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Ep. 030 - Long Live the Short King: Why 4-HI HBM Wins (Memory) | Myron Xie, Jordan Nanos
14 september 2026 · 39 min
NVIDIA previewed Rubin Ultra at 1TB of HBM per package. The part that ships will carry 192GB. Lees meer
Myron Xie and Jordan Nanos get into how the design fell that far, why the reason is supply and not performance, and why shipping less memory per chip might be the right call anyway.
For the first time in recent memory, NVIDIA's next flagship will have less capacity than the one it replaces.
Read More: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi
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Ep. 029 - Modular Data Centers Cut Build Time to 12 Months (Datacenter, Energy) | Nico Bontigui, Jordan Nanos, Nigel Chiang, Eric Wen
11 september 2026 · 47 min
Traditional data center builds ran 18 to 24 months, sometimes past three years. Modular construction cuts that to 12. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Eric Wen, Nigel Chiang, and Nico Bontigui to map what modular actually means, from MEP heavy skids to full containerized builds. Lees meer
They break down why the bottleneck moved from construction time to labor, why welders and electricians are the real constraint in Abilene, and how time to power translates directly into tokens at 40 to 100 million dollars per megawatt.
Subscribe for weekly SemiAnalysis coverage on data center construction, prefabrication, and AI infrastructure.
0:00 Cold Open
1:09 What Is Modular
4:03 Why Go Modular
5:55 Time to Power Math
9:04 Labor Wage Data
13:51 Two Kinds of Bottlenecks
18:24 Site, Shell, System
22:31 Who Owns the Risk
26:59 Trucks and Insurance
30:53 Who Supplies the Modules
35:50 Commissioning Reality
41:39 Vendor Map and Wrap
Read More: The Wild Wild West Of LEGO Datacenters: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/the-wild-wild-west-of-lego-datacenters
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Ep. 028 - Most Neoclouds Suck At Security: How Agents Hacked Hugging Face (Neoclouds, Security) | Doug O'Laughlin, Sam Harshe, Jordan Nanos
2 september 2026 · 51 min
This week Doug, Sam and Jordan discuss the OpenAI vs HuggingFace security incident and our recent article on Neocloud security ahead of ClusterMAX 3.0 Lees meer
Full article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/most-neoclouds-suck-at-security
0:00 Cold Open
0:57 Neocloud Security
4:38 The Hugging Face Hack
11:47 Agent Swarm Behavior
14:47 Obliterated Models
20:37 Security as a Service
24:30 What the Data Shows
33:08 Attacker Asymmetry
40:55 Nothing Ever Happens
45:22 CMAX Audit
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Ep. 027 - OpenAI Jalapeño: Better Than Nvidia Blackwell (Accelerators)
31 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 3 min
This week Bryan, Myron and Jordan discuss our recent article on OpenAI Jalapeño. They cover the performance, architecture, programming model, implications for NVIDIA and more.1:05 Jalapeno Overview4:22 Tokens Per Megawatt9:15 Benchmark Caveats13:48 The CUDA Moat21:12 How OpenAI Did It32:13 Samsung HBM442:10 AI-Designed Silicon49:24 Architecture Deep Dive56:58 Doom and Wrap Lees meer
Full Article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/openai-jalapeno-better-than-nvidia
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Ep. 026 - PJM's $12B Modeling Mistake Is Hitting Ratepayers Again (Datacenter, Energy) | Robert Boswall, Jordan Nanos
20 augustus 2026 · 43 min
PJM overpaid $12 billion across two capacity auctions, and the same modeling error is set to repeat in an upcoming emergency auction. Robert Boswall (@RobertBoswall) and Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) break down how the largest grid in America, 13 states and 66 million people, inflates demand while constraining supply. Lees meer
The result is scarcity pricing that ratepayers absorb, not the data centers driving the narrative. Of the $63 billion spent across four auctions, Boswell estimates $12 billion was avoidable, split $7 billion and $5 billion across the 2025-26 and 2026-27 auctions. This is the mechanics behind every headline blaming AI for rising power bills.
Subscribe for weekly analysis on grid design, capacity markets, and AI energy demand!
0:00 Cold Open1:33 What Is PJM3:13 Capacity Auctions7:39 The $12 Billion12:33 How Plants Get Paid15:15 The Winterization Gap21:17 Data Center Demand26:41 The Emergency Auction30:00 Board Overrules Members40:32 Turning It Around
Article: https://open.substack.com/pub/semianalysis/p/12b-of-us-ratepayers-money-wasted
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Ep. 25 - DYLAN IS HERE, LIVE! | Dylan Patel & Jordan Nanos
17 augustus 2026 · 38 min
Dylan joins the pod today, recorded live from our SF office. Jordan and Dylan discuss SemiAnalysis's AI spend, the model that escaped during training, AI rollups eating private equity, new accelerators vs NVIDIA, and whether the pod gives away too much information for free.0:00 Cold Open5:25 SA AI Spend9:29 AI Performance Reviews10:40 AI Rollups13:47 The Agent Moment15:28 The Escaped Model18:11 Model Exponential22:52 Compute and Chips30:18 Open Models32:00 ADHD and AI Lees meer
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Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy) | Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Jordan Nanos
9 augustus 2026 · 50 min
OpenAI and Anthropic are adding close to $30 billion of ARR per month, and the driver is gross margin expansion, not new compute. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower) join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to trace the $100 million per megawatt per year figure from real inference workloads on GB200 and GB300 up through SemiAnalysis simulation. The Google deal prices GB300 capacity near $14 an hour against a $3 average, a premium justified by a 90 day cancellation clause and the ability to turn on megawatts immediately. Lees meer
From there the conversation moves to SpaceX's 10 gigawatt ambition, the sites and supply chain needed to hit it, the permitting playbook, and why Microsoft becomes the largest offtaker. The bull and bear cases both get airtime, followed by a Hugging Face security scare to close. Subscribe for weekly coverage of tokenomics, datacenter energy, and AI compute economics.
CHAPTERS:
0:00 – Intro
0:47 – The $100M Thesis
3:59 – Pricing & Google's Deal
10:38 – Training vs Inference
13:21 – Sites & Supply Chain
20:55 – Permitting Playbook
25:40 – Microsoft's Role
33:31 – Paying For It
41:01 – Bull vs Bear
43:29 – Hugging Face Security Scare & Wrap-UpReferenced:
SpaceX 10GW in 2027 – Why It's Real, Will Drive $300B ARR for SpaceX, and Why Microsoft Will Be the Largest Offtaker: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/spacex-10gw-in-2027-why-its-real -
Ep. 023 - Everyone Leaves Google, Elon Forecasts 1T ARR, Reflecting On GPT-5, Building Personalized Software (Roundtable) | Jon Y, Doug O'Laughlin, Jordan Nanos
8 augustus 2026 · 44 min
Jeff Dean and the Gemini leads are leaving Google. Jon Y (@asianometry) makes his FIRST appearance to unpack the exodus with Doug O'Laughlin (@fabknowledge) and Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos). The crew debates the Demis CEO question, whether Google acquired its innovation or invented it, and how the Bell Labs comparison reads once disruption arrives. First engineers who spent thirty-five years in one job now leaving for passion projects.The episode opens by revisiting the 2024 Dwarkesh clip where Jon questioned whether GPT-5 would be any good. Two years later the verdict is mixed: GPT-5 was a dud, 5.2 was ass, but 5.6 is strong and GPT-6, codenamed Doug, is rumored to write well. Then the Chinese transceiver ban, where the West depends on a supply chain China already owns. Lees meer
00:00 Intro
01:02 Was GPT-5 Good?
05:00 The Transceiver Ban
08:57 Everyone Leaves Google
12:56 Google's L Culture
19:20 Do Legends Matter?
23:44 The Protestant Church
28:44 Elon's $1T Pull-In
30:55 Roll Your Own Software
38:17 Start With Memory
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Ep. 022 - Market Drawdown, Historic Bubbles, Funding The Buildout, AI Politics (Doug is Back)
29 juli 2026 · 50 min
Doug is back this week!
Timestamps:
00:00 Market Update
07:02 Comparing to Past Bubbles in Taiwan and Korea
10:08 Memory Prices, LTAs, and Market Cycles
18:11 Future Demand for AI and Model Usage
37:40 Scaling Laws and Supply Constraints
44:45 Financial and Capital Constraints in Tech Expansion
50:57 Geopolitical Risks, Policy Impact, Long Term Outlook Lees meer -
Ep. 021 - The AI Project Trinity: Capital, Offtake, Data Center (Datacenter, Energy) | Dan Nishball, Jordan Nanos, Zane Fong, Kang Wen Cheang
24 juli 2026 · 53 min
AI and datacenter CapEx hits $11 trillion cumulatively from 2024 to 2029, and $7.1 trillion of that needs funding, roughly 75% debt financed. Dan Nishball (@dnishball), Zane Fong (linkedin.com/in/zanefongzq), and Kang Wen Cheang (linkedin.com/in/cheangkangwen) sit with Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to break down the AI project Trinity: capital, offtake, and data centers. Lees meer
Today only one deal reliably clears the lending bar, a five-year offtake from an investment-grade hyperscaler. Everything else struggles to finance.The crew explains how NVIDIA backstops are structured, how lenders price GPU loans against them, and what NVIDIA actually does with GPUs it takes back. AI debt financing is on track to become the second-largest US asset-backed market behind the $13 trillion mortgage market. Subscribe for weekly analysis on semiconductors and AI infrastructure.
References: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/nvidia-gpu-debt-backstop-unleashes
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Intro|
01:23 The $11T Funding Problem
09:12 Startups Can't Get GPUs
11:32 How the Backstop Works
20:26 The Central Bank of AI
21:35 The Bullseye
26:23 CoreWeave Credit Spreads
36:58 APAC Examples
42:41 ClusterMax
48:58 Training vs Inference
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Ep. 020 - Anthropic vs OpenAI Usage, Margins, Meta Compute, Future of MSL (Tokenomics) | Crystual Huang, Max Kan, Joey Brookhart, Jordan Nanos
18 juli 2026 · 51 min
Coding drives over 70% of lab API revenue, and token austerity policies mostly miss the point. Crystal (@crystalthegg), Max Kan (@maxkan), and Joey Brookhart (@SaasquatchC) break down why blocking teams from Opus saves nothing, while power users at the 99th percentile burn $100k per employee per year. Jordan (@Jordannanos) and the team run break-even math on the Max plans and Anthropic's margins. Lees meer
00:00 Intro00:53 Token Budgeting: Maxing vs Austerity03:05 Coding Eats the Token Market04:49 The ROI Question06:42 Subscriptions vs API Pricing09:08 Break-Even Math on the Max Plans10:42 Anthropic's Profit Margins12:07 Consumer vs Enterprise Mix16:04 The Two-Horse Race18:45 Codex App vs CLI20:41 Who Comes in Third?23:14 Clawbacks and the SpaceX Playbook26:59 Meta's NeoCloud Backstop29:58 Token-as-a-Service Market Forecast32:03 Hyperscalers vs Inference Startups38:50 MSL and the RL Scaling Law41:58 How to Build a Five-Figure RL Task47:10 Vibe Checks48:13 The $400B Anthropic BetReferenced:TokenBudgeting: Our Conversations with Enterprises on Token Spend: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tokenbudgeting-our-conversationsMeta Compute: Everyone Wants To Be A Neocloud: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/meta-compute-everyone-wants-to-beAnthropic 3Q26 Profit Over $1B: The Anthropic IPO Financials Sneak Peak: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-3q26-profit-over-1b-theThe Future of Meta Superintelligence: A 1 Year Progress Update: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/the-future-of-meta-superintelligenceComplete Launch Kit
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[Emergency Episode] Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has Arrived! China has a Frontier Model
18 juli 2026 · 32 min
A year ago, the big three was OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Things have changed.Moonshot's Kimi K3 sits above Gemini on every composite benchmark, and it's open source in 10 days.New episode: what K3 reveals about frontier margins, model sizes, and who's actually still in the game. Lees meer
00:00 Intro
00:11 Is Kimi K3 the Third Best Model?
04:04 Why Delay the Weights?
05:30 2.8T Parameters and Serving Constraints
06:48 Frontier Margins and the 3x Price Hike
11:10 New Architecture, What Comes Next
14:09 Will Open Source Catch Closed?
19:51 Built for Chinese Accelerators
22:57 The Harness Is the Product
28:49 We're Still Early
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Ep. 019 - Inside the STEEL Lab: From Package to Transistor (Teardown Lab) | Afzal Ahmad, Andrew Wagner, Jordan Nanos
16 juli 2026 · 36 min
SMIC's N+3 node shrank the M0 layer over 15% and cut SRAM area 10 to 20%, all without EUV. SemiAnalysis built a lab just for that; Andrew Wagner and Afzal Ahmad walk Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) through the STEEL teardown of Huawei's Kirin 9030, from package to transistor. They explain die shots, FIB and TEM cross sections, NPU discovery, cell height, and standard cell libraries. Then backside power, GAA, and where SMIC goes next. Lees meer
00:00 Intro: The STEEL Teardown Lab01:02 What Is a Teardown?02:17 Who Uses Teardown Data03:22 SMIC N+3 and the Kirin 903005:02 Inside the Lab: Sourcing to Silicon09:10 Die Shots Explained12:35 The NPU Discovery15:42 Scaling Without EUV17:57 FIB, SEM, and TEM Cross Sections20:59 Cell Height and Transistor Shrink23:56 Standard Cell Libraries26:22 Export Bans and Huawei's Response27:40 What's Next: Backside Power and GAA32:43 Data Center GPUs and Logic Folding34:28 Closing Thoughts
Read More: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/steel-smic-n3-teardown
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Ep. 018 - Stop Saying Half of 2026 US Datacenter Capacity Is Canceled (Datacenter, Energy) | Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, Ellie Holbrook, Jordan Nanos
9 juli 2026 · 51 min
Bloomberg said half of 2026 US data center capacity is delayed. The SemiAnalysis Data Center, Energy, and Industrials team pulled the underlying report and found a broken denominator. Amazon alone built 4GW in 2025 and is adding 5GW plus in 2026. CoreWeave adds a gigawatt, all under construction. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO), Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower), and Ellie Holbrook join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) as they walk through why the number is wrong and what the real forecast shows. Lees meer
The team covers behind the meter power generation reaching 40GW by 2028, Oracle's New Mexico problem, and the gas turbine supply chain that is running toward peak. They break down the three types of data center delays, how OEMs are responding, and where solar, batteries, and nuclear fit.
00:00 Intro
00:51 The "half of capacity is canceled" myth
04:43 Why early stage projects get canceled
08:06 Three types of data center delays
08:40 Oracle's New Mexico problem
13:47 Behind the meter: 40GW by 2028
18:50 How OEMs are responding
20:24 Signed deal to powered GPUs
23:44 Hyperscaler market share
27:49 How SemiAnalysis tracks data centers
31:34 What behind the meter means
33:31 The gas turbine supply chain
38:22 Peak turbine
42:54 Solar, batteries, and nuclear
46:13 Final thoughts
48:20 Favorite projects
Referenced:
Stop Saying Half of 2026 US Datacenter Capacity Is Canceled: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/stop-saying-half-of-2026-us-datacenter
US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-The-Meter Datacenter by 2028?: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/us-grid-constraints-towards-40gw
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Ep. 017 - DeepSeek V4 and Huawei Ascend NPU Performance (InferenceX) | Kimbo Chen, Cam Quilici, Bryan Shan, Jordan Nanos
2 juli 2026 · 35 min
DeepSeek V4 claims a 100x KVcache reduction versus a standard MoE model, hitting 1M context length through compressed sparse attention and heavily compressed attention. Kimbo (@Kimbochen), Cam Quilici (@noslawextratost), Bryan Shan join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to break down what changed from V3, why the new MHC dimension tripped up NVIDIA on day zero, and how Mega MoE fuses compute and communication into a single kernel. Lees meer
The vLLM versus SGLang NDA access gap and the Huawei day zero optimization guide circulating on Twitter.The crew walks through the InferenceX article on going from day zero to day 43 support and what that grind actually looks like across different hardware. Subscribe for weekly semiconductor and AI infrastructure analysis from the SemiAnalysis team.
Referenced:DeepSeekV4 1.6T Day 0 to Day 43 Performance Over Time - GB300 NVL72, Huawei, MI355X, B200: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/deepseekv4-16t-day-0-to-day-43-performanceChapters:
(00:00) DeepSeek V4 vs V3 changes(01:00) Sparse attention and KV cache reduction(03:04) Day zero runtime support challenges(05:34) What Mega MoE actually is(08:38) Downsides of fusing kernels(10:25) MegaKernel benchmark claims(12:59) AMD FP4 optimization gains(15:14) Compounding step by step improvements(17:59) vLLM versus SGLang competition(19:34) Open source vs vendor libraries
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Ep. 016 - What Unitree's Evolution Means For Robotics (Robotics) | Jordan Nanos, Reyk Knuhtsen, Niko Ciminelli
24 juni 2026 · 49 min
Unitree is going public, boasting 67% gross margins on its humanoid robots. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower), and Niko Ciminelli discuss how the Chinese company achieves this through aggressive pricing, rapid iteration, and a focus on "good enough" hardware for the research and hobbyist markets. This strategy allows Unitree to dominate, much like DJI and BYD did in their respective fields.The discussion explores the reality of humanoid robot deployment versus market hype. While industrial applications are in their "baby days," Unitree's approach leverages economies of scale to create a significant moat, challenging US competitors to match their production volume and cost efficiency. The team analyzes if the US can truly compete with China's manufacturing might in the emerging robotics sector.Join SemiAnalysis Weekly for expert insights into the semiconductor, AI infrastructure, and robotics markets. Subscribe for deep dives into AI supply chain, chip economics, and market analysis.Article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-unitree-will-dominate-globalTimestamps:00:00 — Intro, deployment reality vs. hype02:39 — Unitree Business: why go public, margins, pricing05:48 — Parallels to DJI and BYD, economies of scale as China's moat16:52 — When is Claude Code moment for robotics18:38 — Real use cases and future demand shocks26:39 — Shenzhen and the humanoid BOM35:56 — The bear case: who actually buys them?42:17 — Can the US compete? Lees meer
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Ep. 015 - DG Matrix Explains 800V DC vs Legacy AC Distribution (Datacenter, Energy) | Jordan Nanos, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Nicolas Bontigui, Haroon Inam
16 juni 2026 · 48 min
NVIDIA's next architecture will demand 800V DC and datacenters can't wait to build the infrastructure. Haroon Inam, CEO and Co-Founder of DG Matrix, joins Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO), and Nicolas Bontigui to explain why megawatt GPU racks make 800V DC a necessity, not an option. Haroon details his journey from uncool power electronics to enabling superhuman intelligence infrastructure. Lees meer
Full Article Link: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/inside-the-800vdc-revolution-part
Chapters:
00:00 Haroon Inam's Background and Power Electronics Journey
00:29 Introduction to 800V DC Architecture and Its Significance
02:19 Why 800V? Economics, Semiconductor Ratings, and EV Influence
04:47 Physics and Economics Driving the 800V Revolution
08:27 DG Matrix's Multi-Port SST and Its Value Proposition
11:33 Design Challenges and Innovations in Multi-Port SSTs
13:53 Current State and Adoption of 800V DC in Data Centers
17:51 Future Data Center Architectures and Power Density Trends
22:08 Adoption Curve and Market Penetration of 800V DC
26:34 Risks, Challenges, and Future Proofing of Data Centers
30:36 Cybersecurity and Power System Resilience
38:04 The Broader Impact of Power Innovations on Society
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Ep. 014 - Finding Miscompiles For Fun, Not Profit (AI Infrastructure) | Justin Lebar & Jordan Nanos
4 juni 2026 · 23 min
Justin Lebar (jlebar.com) recently spent $10,000 in an afternoon, uncovering critical miscompiles across NVIDIA's PTXAS, LLVM's AMD GPU, and X86 backends. He joins Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to detail his methodology, which combined traditional fuzzing techniques with novel LLM-assisted bug finding. Their discussion highlights the unique challenges of detecting flaws in less-tested ML compilers compared to mature CPU environments.Lebar shares specific high-severity X86 findings, including an atomic operation bug that splits into two non-atomic operations. They explore the comparative efficacy of fuzzing versus LLM agents in identifying these elusive errors. This episode offers critical insights into compiler security and the burgeoning role of AI in automating rigorous code verification for AI infrastructure.FULL ARTICLE Lees meer
00:00 Introduction and Content Overview00:25 Justin Lebar's Background and Recent Project00:59 Fuzzing Techniques for Compiler Bugs01:56 Motivation Behind the Project02:48 Challenges in Bug Detection in GPU and ML Compilers04:13 Bug Severity and Findings in AMD and x8605:38 Using LLMs to Read and Find Bugs in Code07:56 Impact of New Models and UltraCode Mode12:18 Estimating Time and Effort Without AI Assistance14:22 Limitations of Manual Code Review for Bugs15:03 Optimism About AI in Software Development16:17 Next Steps and Future Projects18:11 Key Takeaways for Developers and Researchers21:48 Call for Community Engagement and Scientific Approach
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Ep. 013 - AWS Margins Jump 10% While Azure and GCP Flatline (Tokenomics) | Jordan Nanos, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Joey Brookhart, Crystal Huang
2 juni 2026 · 44 min
AWS operating margins jumped 10 percentage points while Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud stayed flat. The driver: Anthropic's Claude usage routing through Bedrock, Amazon's token-as-a-service platform. Lees meer
Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO), Joey Brookhart (@SaasquatchC), and Crystal Huang (@Egg1459) break down why stabilized token margins are fundamentally richer than GPU-as-a-service for hyperscalers. The crew analyzes Anthropic's recent $65B Series H raise, Claude Opus 4.8 release, and SpaceX partnership against the backdrop of 300+ neo clouds fragmenting the traditional cloud moat.The team forecasts how AWS's workload mix advantage creates sustainable returns while competitors struggle with asset-heavy GPU service models. They examine the $22.7T TAM question, earnings-before-training dynamics, and whether the 2026 AI infrastructure beat belongs to silicon vendors or platform integrators. Subscribe for weekly deep dives into semiconductor and AI infrastructure economics.00:00 Intro: Episode 13 and the AWS margins article00:56 What is Bedrock? The three hyperscaler buckets02:33 AWS margins rising while peers lag03:33 Cloud moats collapsing and the neo cloud explosion06:32 Why stabilized token-as-a-service margins are so rich09:54 Amazon's workload mix advantage12:41 Forecasting Anthropic and the 4.8 release16:33 The SpaceX deal and the $65B Series H raise19:30 Bullish or bearish? Demand becoming supply28:55 The $22.7T TAM and does the race even matter31:59 Earnings before training and open-ended TAM36:27 The 2026 beat is basically one company40:22 Who wins long term: silicon, partnerships, integration
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Ep. 012 - Cerebras IPO: 1,100 Tokens Per Second vs GPU's 500 (AI Cloud TCO) | Jordan Nanos, Howie , Myron Xie
15 mei 2026 · 45 min
Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Howie, and Myron Xie break down the economics of Cerebras's IPO on the eve of their public debut, examining their OpenAI and Amazon deals that have shifted the company away from Middle Eastern investor concentration toward frontier AI labs willing to pay exponentially more for speed.The discussion covers Cerebras's radical stitching innovation across a full wafer, creating compute density equivalent to an entire NVL72 rack without off-chip data movement. The hosts analyze whether businesses will accept these premium economics as fast tokens become the new standard for interactive AI applications.Subscribe for weekly deep dives into semiconductor economics and AI infrastructure developments. Lees meer
(00:00) Cerebras IPO Preview
(18:58) Need for Speed Fast Tokens
(21:19) Wafer Scale Engine Architecture
(25:31) Radical Stitching Innovation
(31:55) Power Delivery and Cooling
(34:31) Bandwidth and IO Limitations
(37:12) Scaling Beyond Wafer Size
(40:05) Manufacturing and Assembly Bottlenecks
(42:54) Data Center Service Model
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Ep. 011 - GPT 5.5 vs Claude 4.7: OpenAI's Comeback From the Brink (Tokenomics) | Jordan Nanos, Dylan Patel, Doug O'Laughlin, Max Kan
6 mei 2026 · 45 min
OpenAI was in serious trouble at the beginning of this year. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 release had triggered a wave of developers to start using Claude Code, pushing Anthropic's revenue past OpenAI's on a like-for-like basis by April. OpenAI's GPT 5.4 response was such an embarrassment they didn't even compare it to Claude in their model release card. Then came GPT 5.5 - finally back on the frontier, but is it enough to reclaim the crown? Lees meer
Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Dylan Patel (@Dylan522p), Doug O'Laughlin (@FabricatedKnowledge), and Max Kan (@maxkan_) break down the latest AI model wars, from Claude 4.7's coding dominance to DeepSeek's long-delayed v4 release and what it reveals about China's AI capabilities. They analyze token efficiency, benchmark gaming, and why fast mode might be fake news. Subscribe for weekly deep dives into the semiconductor and AI infrastructure powering the future.
The Coding Assistant Breakdown
AI Value Capture
Timestamps:
00:00 OpenAI's Comeback and the Latest AI Model Wars
04:05 The High Cost of AI Models and Fast Mode Effectiveness
08:16 When AI Tokens Become Too Expensive for Tasks
13:11 Why AI Model Quality Degrades and Benchmarks Fail
18:42 Deep Dive into Claude 4.7 Features and Tokenizer Changes
25:29 DeepSeek's Release and China's AI Compute Constraints
28:20 The Future of Context Windows and Agent Orchestration
30:47 The Great Debate: CLI vs. App for AI Interaction
36:33 Debunking AI Fake News and Context Window Limitations
40:51 The AI Race: China, Meta, and the Neo Cloud Vision
43:46 Final Thoughts and Listener Feedback Request
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Ep. 010 - How Much Do GPUs Really Cost, and Where Does the Value Go? (AI Cloud TCO) | Jordan Nanos, Dan Nishball, Kang Wen Cheang, Zane Fong
1 mei 2026 · 47 min
This episode features Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) and Daniel Nishball (@dnishball) breaking down the economics of GPU clusters through real-world data and experience. Joined with Kang Wen Cheang and Zane Fong, the team discussed moving beyond theoretical TCO models as they examine how reliability differences between top-tier and lower-tier providers create significant cost disparities that aren't captured in simple per-GPU pricing. The discussion introduces practical frameworks for measuring goodput and understanding how system failures cascade through entire training jobs.Nanos walks through the mechanics of fault-tolerant frameworks including AWS's Checkpointless Training and explains why a single GPU failure can halt progress across hundreds of nodes. The conversation reveals how hyperscalers and NeoClouds price their services and why paying premium rates for reliable infrastructure often delivers better value than chasing the lowest per-hour costs. Subscribe to SemiAnalysis for in-depth analysis of AI hardware economics and infrastructure trends that impact the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Lees meer
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Ep. 009 - Using Open Source Data To Drive Investment Decisions (ChipBook) | Chaim Eisenberg, Simi Sherman, Jordan Nanos
19 april 2026 · 53 min
This week the team from ChipBook (formerly Chips & Wafers) joins. Jordan Nanos talks with Chaim Eisenberg and Simi Sherman as they explore how they build the ChipBook with open source data, and how that drives investment decisions. This episode dives deep into the ChipBook itself, revealing how granular, historical data collection provides insights into supply chain dynamics, memory markets, wafer fabrication equipment trends and more. The guests also share compelling examples of how their data-driven approach has generated some viral social media recently.for more: SemiAnalysis.com/chipbook00:00 The Chipbook: Understanding Open Source Data07:56 Granularity in Data: The Key to Investment Insights09:11 Understanding the Semiconductor Supply Chain10:52 Memory Market Insights and Trends14:23 Tracking WFE and Its Impact on Production15:20 The Importance of Early Signals in Investment16:51 Geopolitical Implications on Semiconductor Supply20:24 The Impact of Tariffs and Regulations22:48 Granular Tracking for Investment Decisions27:07 Data-Driven Insights and Investment Strategies29:13 The Structure of the Chipbook33:02 Collaboration and Integration at Semi Analysis37:02 Geopolitical Analysis and Its Impact on TSMC43:48 Helium Supply Chain and Its Importance Lees meer
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Ep. 008 Claude Code Psychosis: How SemiAnalysis Is Token Mogging Meta | Dan Nishball, Sam Harshe, Jordan Nanos
10 april 2026 · 35 min
Jordan Nanos (@jordannanos) Daniel Nishball (@dnishball) and Sam Harshe (@sharshe02) break down how SemiAnalysis is deploying Claude Code agents across its Singapore office at a scale that outpaces Meta on a per-employee basis. They cover the practical workflow changes, the trust and reliability questions that come with AI-generated analysis, and what it actually takes to build an agent swarm that does useful work. The conversation also gets into cybersecurity risks and where AI model development is headed next.00:00 - Introduction and Team Dynamics09:10 - The Evolution of Agent Utilization14:49 - Conference Insights and Research Efficiency15:58 - AI's Role in Learning and Analysis21:13 - Trust and Reliability in AI Outputs27:04 - Market Impact and Adoption of AI Tools32:14 - Cybersecurity and AI: Opportunities and Challenges39:32 - Future of AI Models and User Experience Lees meer
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Ep. 007 - The 3 Choke Points Killing the AI Boom (Core Research) | Nick Doyle, Nigel Chiang, Konrad Wang, Jordan Nanos
3 april 2026 · 34 min
The Core Research team is on SemiAnalysis Weekly this week. Jordan Nanos, Nick Doyle, Nigel Chiang, and Konrad Wang walk through the biggest bottlenecks in AI infrastructure: TSMC capacity constraints, PCB and substrate shortages, memory cycle dynamics, modular data center construction, and behind-the-meter power. The team also gets into how Claude Code is transforming their day-to-day research, what enterprise AI adoption actually looks like today, and the signals they're watching for when the cycle turns. Lees meer
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Ep. 006 - The AI Silicon Shortage Explained (AI Supply Chain & Fabs) | Sravan Kundojjala, Ivan Chiam, Jordan Nanos
27 maart 2026 · 58 min
This week, Sravan Kundojjala (@SKundojjala) and Ivan Chiam ( from our team join Jordan (@JordanNanos) to break down the AI silicon shortage — and why its ripple effects are hitting everything from GPU pricing to your next smartphone.We cover what's driving the crisis, how TSMC is allocating scarce capacity across its biggest customers, and why memory constraints could cut consumer electronics production by 10–15%. We dig into TSMC's $70B+ capex plans, the structural dynamics reshaping the memory market, and near-term node migration strategies that could offer some relief. Then we shift to the GPU rental market, tracking real pricing trends and what they signal about supply and demand heading into the back half of the year.In the second half, we unpack Nvidia's co-packaged optics (CPO) roadmap — one of the most significant infrastructure announcements to come out of recent industry events. We cover highlights from the OFC conference, explain why optical interconnects matter for next-gen AI clusters, and break down the dueling MSA standards battle playing out across the optical components industry.Whether you're an investor, engineer, or just trying to understand why AI hardware is so hard to get right now — this one's for you. Lees meer
Jordan Nanos (Chapters00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview00:30 AI Silicon Shortage: Causes and Demand Growth03:25 TSMC's Capacity Constraints and Customer Allocation06:24 Impact of Memory Shortages on Consumer Electronics10:16 Memory Market Dynamics and Structural Trends13:25 Near-term Solutions and Node Migration Strategies15:31 Modeling the Memory Shortage and Industry Outlook17:16 Signs of Relief and Demand Trends19:35 Capex and Industry Investment Outlook23:25 GPU Rental Market and Pricing Trends26:58 Nvidia's CPO Roadmap and Industry Implications39:26 OFC Conference Highlights and Optical Interconnects40:24 Understanding Co-Package Optics (CPO) and Its Significance46:06 Industry Significance of Nvidia's Announcements and Market Outlo…
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Ep. 005 - Measuring AI's Impact On The Market (Memory, Tokenomics, Macro) | Ray Wang, Malcolm Splitter, Joey Brookhart, Jordan Nanos
13 maart 2026 · 1 uur 18 min
This episode explores the impact of AI on memory costs, market dynamics, and economic measurement. Our experts discuss how AI is transforming industries, the challenges of measuring economic value, and the future of AI adoption across sectors. This week Jordan hosts Ray Wang, Malcolm Splitter, Joey Brookhart from SemiAnalysis. Lees meer
Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Guest Credibility
03:44 Memory Constraints and Market Impact
07:14 Elasticity of Supply and Economic Analogies
10:00 AI Adoption in Personal and Enterprise Life
14:57 Global Distribution of AI Usage and Tokens
20:00 Consumer vs Enterprise AI Use Cases
24:56 Future Market Growth and Adoption Scenarios
29:48 AI's Impact on GDP and Economic Measurement
40:12 AI and the Future of Work and Productivity
50:02 Global Workforce and AI's Economic Effects
01:00:03 Building AI-Driven Dashboards and Tools
01:09:59 Reevaluating GDP and Economic Value of AI
01:19:56 Closing Remarks and Future Outlook
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Ep. 004 - The Impact of AI Datacenters On Consumer Power Costs (Datacenter, Energy) | Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin
5 maart 2026 · 51 min
Join Jordan Nanos, Doug O’Laughlin, and special guest Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros for an in-depth analysis of the intersection between AI infrastructure and energy markets. Jeremie, Head of Datacenter & Energy Infrastructure Research, shares expert insights on how AI data centers are reshaping electricity pricing, market dynamics, and the regulatory challenges facing the grid today. Lees meer
00:00 AI Data Centers and Electricity Prices
02:15 Market Dynamics: PJM vs. ERCOT
04:56 Supply and Demand Challenges
08:02 Thermal Accreditation and Market Reforms
11:05 Future of Energy Supply and Coal Retirements
17:13 The Future of Coal Power Plants
18:27 Balancing Energy Prices and Consumer Expectations
19:29 Customized Tariffs and Their Impact
20:28 Investment Commitments and Grid Reliability
22:30 Negotiation Timelines for Data Centers
24:32 Financing Mismatches in Energy Projects
25:10 The AI Boom and Its Impact on Energy
27:13 Anthropic vs. OpenAI: The Revenue Race
29:15 The Role of Government in AI Adoption
32:00 Demand Drivers in AI and Software Development
33:33 The Shift in Consumer Perception of AI
35:53 The Future of Coding and AI Integration
39:55 The Evolution of Software and AI Tools
43:53 The Canadian Tech Scene and AI Growth
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Ep. 003 - Deep Dive on NVIDIA Vera Rubin VR NVL72 (AI Supply Chain) | Jordan Nanos, Myron Xie, Copper Wei (Wega), Howie
26 februari 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Article (latest): https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p... Lees meer
00:00 Introduction to Vera Rubin and Extreme Co-Design
02:30 Innovations in GPU Architecture: From Blackwell to Rubin
05:38 Memory Bandwidth and HBM4: A New Era
08:26 NVLink 6 and Interconnect Enhancements
11:38 Cable-less Design: Revolutionizing System Assembly
14:29 Thermal Management Innovations in Rubin
17:30 Power Management and Performance Expectations
33:36 Innovations in Packaging and Heat Management
38:15 Chiller-less Design and Data Center Infrastructure
40:47 Power Delivery Innovations in Rubin
46:16 Memory Solutions and Supply Chain Management
54:57 Deployment Timeline and Future Expectations
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Ep. 002 - InferenceX 2.0 Release (Technical Staff) | Cam Quilici, Bryan Shan, Doug O'Laughlin, Jordan Nanos
19 februari 2026 · 51 min
InferenceX, formerly InferenceMAX: https://inferencex.com/ Lees meer
Article (latest): https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/inferencex-v2-nvidia-blackwell-vs
GitHub https://github.com/SemiAnalysisAI/InferenceX
Article (original) https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/inferencemax-open-source-inference
00:00 Introduction to InferenceX
02:52 Evolution from InferenceMAX to InferenceX
06:06 Benchmarking and Performance Insights
08:43 The Scale of Benchmarking Work
11:39 Collaboration with AMD and Nvidia
14:52 The Evolution of Inference Benchmarking
17:34 Optimizations and Their Impact
20:47 Challenges in Composability
23:51 Multi-Token Prediction Explained
26:52 Cost Implications of Optimizations
31:06 Understanding Inference Workloads and Benchmarks
33:44 Future Plans for Inference Optimization
37:16 Roadmap for New Models and Data Sets
39:03 Challenges in Benchmarking Multi-Turn and Multi-Modal Data
42:44 Experiences with AI Models and Their Limitations
48:43 Skepticism About Future AI Improvements
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Ep. 001 - Claude Code, Memory Mania, CPUs are Back | Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin, Myron Xie
13 februari 2026 · 52 min
Claude Code Rising: https://semianalysis.com/institutional/claude-code-adoption-note/ and https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/claude-code-is-the-inflection-point Lees meer
CPUs are back: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/cpus-are-back-the-datacenter-cpu
Memory Mania: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/memory-mania-how-a-once-in-four-decades
Claude Fast: https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2020922445989822709?s=20
Agent Swarms: https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2021283054019330194?s=20
Taiwan: https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2021222800707538980?s=20
Seedance2: https://x.com/kirkinator_sol/status/2012588116536631778?s=20 , https://docs.google.com/document/d/1du1Ld94b1d2TU4maYIcU-K6v405iWoYTILnO9ipsEXQ/edit?tab=t.0