The Noble Update Podcast

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1. The Ultimate AI Debate

   6 november 2026 · 1 uur 27 min

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   Before you watch: Lees meer

   We're hosting an EMERGENCY subscriber call tonight at 7:30 PM ET.

   The AI trade is coming apart in real time, and I'm going live with Noble Update subscribers tonight to walk through exactly where I stand. The Zoom meeting details:

   AI is a wonderful product and a lousy investment, and I went toe to toe with Gene Munster of Deepwater on exactly that in a debate on ZeroHedge.

   Gene thinks we're in the third inning and called this a buy opportunity. I think the internet already showed us how this ends. The bulls of 1999 were right about the internet, and anyone who owned Nortel, Lucent or Global Crossing still got wiped out.

   If the payoff on AI were so obvious, the market would hand these companies the money freely. Instead Nvidia has to play the bank of AI and back its own customers so they can keep buying its chips.

   It's a commodity, the Chinese are doing it for 95% less, and the bond market is already sending the bill.

   This was a fun debate, and the bulls have nothing left but copium.

   This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

2. The Final Cash Out

   4 november 2026 · 40 min

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   Wall Street tried to sell WeWork to the public at $45 billion, and weeks after the IPO fell apart, SoftBank put it on its own books at $4 billion. Lees meer

   My friend David Trainer of New Constructs was one of the first to call out WeWork, and he thinks Anthropic is the same movie with a much bigger ending. He calls it the final cash out, and we went through exactly how it works:

   * How your index fund, pension and 401k end up holding the bag

   * The $900 billion of purchase commitments, roughly 45 times revenue

   * The vendor costs Anthropic wants kept out of its earnings

   * The red flag its own auditors raised on internal controls

   * The shares insiders can sell within days of the IPO

   The crash will be EPIC, and David cuts through the noise in this one.

   Follow David Trainer on X: x.com/theRealD

   This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

3. Replay for the Noble Update Zoom Call (with Peter Boockvar)

   3 november 2026 · 5 min

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   This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit georgenoble.substack.com Lees meer

   Our subscriber call last night was TERRIFIC.

   The election is today, and I told subscribers exactly how I'm positioned for what comes after it. My friend Peter Boockvar joined us too.

   We talked about:

   * Why $200 oil is on the table, even if the war ends

   * What I expect from the market once the election is behind us

   * The simplest way I know to own uranium

   * What to ch…

4. Don’t be their exit liquidity

   2 november 2026 · 1 min

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   The tech bros are lining YOU up to be their exit liquidity, and the Anthropic IPO is how they plan to do it. Lees meer

   Anthropic just disclosed $895B in spending commitments ahead of its IPO, and Robinhood is already fighting for a piece of the shares Anthropic may set aside for retail investors. When the people who got in early want the public holding the bag, you should be angry, very angry.

   I'll go through all of it tonight on our subscriber call at 7:30 PM EST, along with the process behind our 70% long/short spread.

   The Zoom details are in the post below:

   This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

5. The S&P 500 went NOWHERE in October

   30 oktober 2026 · 3 min

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   Energy was up 11.8% and tech was down 2.7% through Thursday, and we were long energy and short tech the whole time. Lees meer

   Our long/short spread is now 70.1% (119% annualized), and all 12 of our scored shorts are winners.

   If all you owned was the index, you got a flat month and MISSED every bit of it.

   The tide is going out. Money isn’t cheap anymore, so valuation and fundamentals matter again, and the stocks priced on stories are the first to go. I think the tech rout is just getting started.

   On Sunday at 10 AM ET I’m going live with Noble Update subscribers to go through the portfolio and our process, and to explain why I think SpaceX is about to crash - instructions to join are below and replays will be available:

   If you missed this week’s Best Technical Ideas Summit, the replay with all 60 ideas is up here: noble-capevents.com/btios-watch-the-replays

   The Noble Update is the #1 place for alpha.

   I want you to MAKE MONEY.

   This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

6. The Most Hated Sector Is Where the Value Is

   23 oktober 2026 · 48 min

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   All it takes to break the AI picks and shovels trade is order growth slowing from 30% to 15%. That's STILL double-digit growth, but the stocks can get crushed anyway. Lees meer

   My friend Peter Boockvar joined me, and he thinks this is gut check time for the whole trade:

   * The warning lights already flashing on the AI dashboard, from Chinese chipmakers to scrapped data center IPOs

   * Why the memory chip boom peaked within weeks of a Chinese rival going public

   * The credit market pricing a 55% chance that one AI darling defaults within 5 years

   * The cyclical chip stock that just became the top holding in a major value ETF, and why that should worry you

   * The most hated sector in the market that Peter loves right now

   You can also watch the full conversation on Youtube:

   This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

7. The bond market just started calling the AI trade's bluff

   23 oktober 2026 · 14 min

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   Last week CoreWeave's bonds traded at yields around 15%, and the cost of insuring its debt implied roughly a 60% chance of default within 5 years. Oracle's default insurance hit a record high at the same time. Lees meer

   That's what it looks like when narratives and dreams run into a lack of cash flow and a mountain of debt.

   When easy money dries up, the most indebted company with the weakest fundamentals gets shot first, which is why CoreWeave is at the front of the line. It's our biggest short, we added to it 2 weeks ago, and I think it's a better short at around $60 than it was at $107.

   As Hemingway put it, you go bankrupt gradually, then suddenly.

   Check out the full conversation.

   Sign up for The Best Technical Ideas Online Summit here:

   noble-capevents.com

   P.S. Every position we hold is on our public scoreboard with the date and price we called it, including the ones that aren't working:

   This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

8. The Insurance Reckoning with Tom Gober

   21 oktober 2026 · 56 min

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   This is the final episode of our series with Tom Gober. Lees meer

   Last episode ended with Tom challenging the offshore reinsurers to show us the $1.5 trillion, and in Episode 4, he shows you which companies are behind it.

   Just 40 companies account for 85% of it, and the biggest sends $235.7 billion to a single offshore affiliate while holding only $4 billion of surplus, which Tom describes as moving money from one pocket to another, like "trust me, bro, I got this."

   Here's what we're going over in Episode 4 "The Offshore Black Box":

   * Tom maps every internal reinsurance deal at a household name in American insurance, with billions swirling between its own companies and all of it tapping into 7 captives in Arizona where you can't get any information.

   * Tom shows how a company you'd recognize asked Texas to approve a reinsurance deal worth more than $20 billion with its own affiliate, and when it never heard back, it disclosed the deal as "non-disallowed."

   * Tom ranks the 25 carriers he worries about most, and at the top of the list, just over 1% of the higher-risk assets going bad would wipe out the entire surplus.

   * Tom shows that over the last 9 years, the industry's surplus grew by about 50% while the affiliated reinsurance he's worried about doubled.

   We also call out 9 state insurance commissioners by name, so stay for that.

   I'm very bearish on private equity and private credit, and this episode made me even more so. Insurance companies have been a huge source of money for those firms, and a lot of that paper ended up in 401(k)s and pension plans, so a firefighter in Peoria who's never thought about private credit may already own it.

   Over 4 episodes, Tom has taken us from a recorder hidden in a briefcase to a $1.5 trillion question the regulators still haven't answered, and neither of us got paid a cent to do it. We did it because the people who've paid their premiums on time for years deserve to know where their money went.

   I'm asking every American who watche…

9. The Insurance Reckoning with Tom Gober

   17 oktober 2026 · 31 min

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   Last episode, we left off with Tom Gober about to reveal a secret document he found in a company president’s personal files, and Episode 3 opens with what it said. Lees meer

   A CFO in a criminal case was recorded calling these offshore deals “a little bit like morphine,” and Tom explains why: once you start, the hole gets bigger and you need a bigger dose.

   Here’s what we’re going over in Episode 3 “The Secret Side Letter”:

   * Tom tells you what was in the side letter hidden behind a reinsurance contract that looked perfect to an examiner, from a case that sent the man in control to prison for 18 and a half years, and you’ll hear what happened when the FBI knocked on his door in Del Mar.

   * Tom puts the cushion of the entire US life and annuity industry at about $650 billion, and he says more than that sits in secret captives alone, while more than $1 trillion has gone offshore, out of sight.

   * Tom shows what happened at a big insurance group after KKR took it over from Goldman Sachs, including a carrier with about $3.7 billion in affiliated investments sitting on roughly $200 million of surplus, where a 6% haircut would wipe out its entire surplus.

   * Big institutions hold more than $500 billion of short-term notes issued through these insurers, and at one of those companies, a legal opinion puts those investors on equal footing with policyholders like you, which Tom says means they’ll see trouble coming first and get to the exit before you do.

   Tom also names the two insurers he loves, so stay for that.

   In my world, if you sell a stock through one broker and buy it right back through another, that’s painting the tape, and you’re not allowed to do it because it kills true price discovery. When the same owner sits on both sides of an insurance company’s investments, it looks eerily similar to me.

   Tom ends this one with a simple message for the offshore reinsurers and secret captives: if the $1.5 trillion is really there, show us.

   This is a public episode. If you'd like t…

10. The era of easy money is over, and the market made that very clear today.

    17 oktober 2026 · 6 min

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    Our long/short spread widened to 67.4% today, with our longs up 25.9% on average and our shorts down 41.6%. Lees meer

    This post has bonus content for paid subscribers. Upgrade to get full access.

    We made money on both sides of the book, which is exactly what a hedge fund is supposed to do.

    But the people chasing momentum and narratives are having a very different day.

    When the tide of easy liquidity goes out, the momentum and narrative bros find out what they really own, and anyone who's been doing the work on valuation and fundamentals finds this market pretty easy to read.

    We doubled down on a lot of our shorts last week, and CoreWeave alone is down almost 25% since we added to it on October 8.

    If you only started investing after the financial crisis, all you've ever known is more liquidity, and that game is OVER. I'm not calling a crash, because we're long and short, but the downside from here looks much bigger than the upside, and I have far more conviction in my shorts than my longs.

    If you want 60 more ideas for what comes next, our technicians conference runs October 27 and 28, with 20 of the best chartists on the street bringing 3 ideas each. Tickets are $99 until midnight tonight, and then the price goes to $199.

    noble-capevents.com

    BRACE FOR IMPACT

    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

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