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531 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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Rise of a New Kleptocracy: How Dirty Money is Conquering the World | Tom Burgis
26 oktober 2020 · 1 uur 5 min
In Episode 160 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tom Burgis, an investigations correspondent at the Financial Times who is also the author of Kletopia, a book that chronicles the world of dirty money, with its complex web of criminals, money launderers, and politicians who enable it. Lees meer
In recent decades, we have witnessed in the West the rise of a new kleptocracy that knows no boundaries and obeys few laws, which is enabled by a sort of political consensus to loot. This looting has become so pervasive that the money extracted by its members is enough to buy the political power needed to change the laws and loot some more. It's a self-perpetuating cycle of fraud, criminality, and widespread corruption of the very systems of liberal, democratic capitalism that these kleptocrats depend upon for their survival.
Unfortunately, the conduits through which we learn about this phenomenon are themselves often held captive, to one degree or another, by these same forces. The more obvious their looting becomes and the more our elected officials choose to ignore or divert our attention away, the more radicalized and susceptible the electorates become to the promises of candidates who seek to fill the vacuum of trust left by our politicians with power.
In their conversation today, Demetri and Tom discuss the nature of this problem and why it poses such a serious threat to the very systems that it seeks to exploit.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
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The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare | Chris Brose
19 oktober 2020 · 1 uur 2 min
In Episode 159 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chris Brose, fmr. Staff Director of the Senate Armed Services Committee, a fmr. speechwriter to two Secretaries of State, and the current Head of Strategy at Anduril Industries, a defense product company working at the bleeding edge of innovation in defense strategy, procurement, and development. Lees meer
This is a conversation about the story that the American public tells itself about the strength and primacy of American military power and how that story has increasingly fallen out of step with the reality of how our military operates, the technologies it has at its disposal, and the threat that countries like Russia and China pose to America's battle-networks, systems, and platforms. How do we navigate these challenges while still trying to maintain peace and security both at home and abroad? How is the nature of warfare changing, and how can America's military evolve to meet the challenge posed by new systems of automated warfare, next-generation weaponry, and shorter development cycles? And as we work to meet these challenges, how do we guard against the weakening of our civil and political institutions in an effort to overcome them? These are just a few of the questions that Chris and Demetri tackle in the first part of today's conversation.
In the overtime, the two discuss some of the initiatives and projects that Chris is most excited about at Anduril, and how the company is revolutionizing the way we think about the relationship between commercial technologies and military technologies, battle networks and platforms, as well as the overall budgetary procurement and acquisition process.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can …
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Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World | Charles Kupchan
12 oktober 2020 · 42 min
In Episode 158 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Charles Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, who served as special assistant to the president for national security affairs in the Obama Whitehouse and on the National Security Council under President Bill Clinton. Lees meer
The two explore the history of isolationism in the United States and apply those lessons towards a broader conversation about the future of America and the 2020 election during the episode overtime.
You can access the overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page.
All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Episode Recorded on 10/07/2020
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Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense & American Strategy in Asia | Ian Easton
5 oktober 2020 · 1 uur 1 min
In Episode 157 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ian Easton, Senior Director at the Project 2049 Institute and author of "The Chinese Invasion Threat" about the likelihood and consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Lees meer
The Taiwan Strait is one of the most dangerous flashpoints on earth and the island of Taiwan sits right in the middle of one of the busiest maritime sea and air routes in the world. It is situated at the very center of what is known as the first island chain, stretching from as far south as Vietnam and Indonesia, all the way up through the Philippines and north of Japan, giving it unique strategic and commercial significance as a gateway to the pacific.
In this two-hour long conversation, Ian provides us with an extraordinary overview of the island's history, its strategic, commercial, and political significance, and what an invasion of Taiwan would mean for the United States, its allies, and the world.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Episode Recorded on 09/30/2020
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The Rise of Mohammed bin Salman and the Future of Saudi Arabia | Bradley Hope & Justin Scheck
28 september 2020 · 52 min
In Episode 156 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Wall Street Journal reporters Bradley Hope and Justin Scheck about their new book, "Blood & Oil" that chronicles the rise to power of Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, a story full of multi-billion dollar business deals, high-powered finance, and political intrigue. Lees meer
The first 15 minutes or so of their conversation deal with Bradley and Justin's process for writing the book, their cultivation of leads, and how they went about fact-checking stories. The rest of the episode and the overtime focuses on Salman's approach to statesmanship, his role and that of his family as "swing investors" in silicon valley, and what it means for the politics of the greater Middle East should he assume the throne.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed
Write us a review on Apple Podcasts
Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Episode Recorded on 09/11/2020
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'Accommodative' Monetary Policy & Risks to Central Bank Independence | Bill Nelson
21 september 2020 · 57 min
In Episode 155 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bill Nelson, Chief Economist & Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute, who spent most of his career working at the Federal Reserve, with a brief stint at the Bank For International Settlements. Lees meer
Before joining BPI, Dr. Nelson served as a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board and actually helped design and manage several of the Fed's emergency liquidity facilities during the 2008 crisis.
Dr. Nelson's expert understanding of the plumbing of our monetary system and how monetary policy is effectuated at the ground level is important because, despite all the ways in which the Fed has sought to increase transparency and further communication with the public over the years, the mechanics of monetary policy remain baffling to most people. Even those of us who think we understand how it works are often only scratching the surface.
Consequently, one of the items we discuss in this episode is how monetary policy has changed operationally since the 2008 crisis -- how a combination of regulations introduced by Basel III and Dodd-Frank, as well as emergency actions taken by the Fed during the financial crisis explain some of what we are seeing in markets today.
We also discuss inflation and inflation expectations, as well as credible threats to the Fed's independence given how far it's gone in expanding its balance sheet and in purchasing corporate bonds and corporate bond ETFs. In addition, we look at what it would take for the Fed to bring out "the Bazooka" as Bill Nelson refers to it, and what that Bazooka would look like. Would it include equities, and if so, how would Fed officials justify those purchases? Lastly, what type of language should we be focused on? What types of signs should we be looking for that might give us a hint that we are about to enter a new phase of policy action?
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and r…
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The Hype Machine: The Promise and the Peril of Social Media | Sinan Aral
14 september 2020 · 1 uur 2 min
In Episode 154 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Sinan Aral, MIT Professor and author of "The Hype Machine," about the promise and the peril of social media. Lees meer
Is social media a force for meaningful connection, collaboration, social support, and access to life-saving information? Or is it a propaganda machine that, left unchecked, will destroy democracy, civil society, and our health? Can the promise of social media be realized without the peril? Or are they inexorably linked?
This episode is the latest in a series of thoughtful conversations that we have hosted on Hidden Forces dealing with some of the more problematic issues surrounding social media and its influence on politics & society. Demetri's conversations with Shoshana Zuboff and Rana Faroohar come most immediately to mind, but my episodes with Cal Newport on digital minimalism, Hanna Fry on artificial intelligence, and John Borthwick with whom we have explored numerous interesting philosophical questions are also very much worth revisiting for anyone interested in further exploring the topics discussed today.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed
Write us a review on Apple Podcasts
Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Episode Recorded on 09/04/2020
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The Rise of Carry: the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth & Recurring Crisis
7 september 2020 · 56 min
In Episode 153 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with authors Kevin Coldiron, Jamie Lee, and Tim Lee, as they explain how the behavior of financial markets today is not, as is commonly believed, some function of the economy, interest rates, or political developments, but rather a manifestation of what they call "the rise of carry" or the suppression of volatility. Lees meer
In finance, a carry trade is typically thought of as an interest rate arbitrage expressed as a trade between two currencies, where the more historically stable currency is used to fund the purchase of an historically less-stable but higher-yielding alternative in exchange for taking on currency risk.
The authors extend this principle across every facet of the economy in an effort to show that the logic of carry has increasingly become the dominant force driving market behavior and by extension, asset prices.
If we are to agree that financial markets play a vital function in a capitalist economy and that their value ultimately derives from the underlying businesses and cash flows that their prices should reflect, then the rise of carry in a highly levered, fiat economy represents an existential threat to all aspects of human affairs.
The authors argue that we appear to be closer to this eventuality than ever before, but what will the collapse of carry or its ignition create? What will it look and feel like? What could allow it to continue? How might we stop it? Or is it already too late? We tackle all these questions and more during the course of this nearly two-hour-long conversation.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitche…
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Some Thoughts to End the Summer...
31 augustus 2020 · 13 min
In this short segment, Demetri Kofinas shares some thoughts to end the summer and looks ahead at what listeners can expect to hear in the next few months. Lees meer
You can access the Hidden Forces episode overtimes, transcripts, and rundowns to through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed
Write us a review on Apple Podcasts
Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Episode Recorded on 08/29/2020
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Erdoğan's Turkey & the Revival of the Ottoman Empire | Soner Çağaptay
24 augustus 2020 · 53 min
In Episode 152 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Soner Çağaptay, the Beyer Family fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. Soner has written extensively on U.S.-Turkish relations, Turkish domestic politics, and Turkish nationalism and is the author of several books on Turkey including his latest "Erdoğan's Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East." Lees meer
Turkey's neighborhood is arguably ground zero for anyone interested in studying the effects of the breakdown of the American-led international order. America and its Western allies have more or less kept the peace in the greater Middle East and Europe for the better half of the 20th century, but the misadventures in Iraq and Libya, along with the Obama administration's decision not to intervene in Syria, coupled with Trump's latest maneuvering of troops out of Rojava have reinforced the view that the United States is no longer committed to providing a security guarantee to the region's most insecure countries.
And to this point, Turkey has a lot to feel insecure about. To its south, it borders Iraq and Syria, two countries that remain highly politically fractious with large Kurdish populations. To the east, it borders its strategic, regional competitor Iran. To the north, across the black sea sits Turkey's historical nemesis Russia and to the west lie the Mediterranean and Europe. Turkey is therefore both strategically insecure and simultaneously capable of projecting influence across a wide territory, which is why it has been such an important part of NATO going back to the earliest days of the Cold War.
This makes the latest crisis that has broken out in the eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and an alliance of regional actors including fellow NATO member states Greece and France very concerning. Not only is there a real risk of military conflict, but the fractures that started in the Middle East with Iraq, Egypt, Libya, and Syria are now extending into…
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Uncharted Future: Learning to Navigate an Unpredictable World | Margaret Heffernan
17 augustus 2020 · 1 uur 4 min
In Episode 151 of Hidden Forces, In Episode 151 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with journalist, author, and documentary filmmaker Margaret Heffernan, whose best-selling book Willful Blindness, was named one of the most important business books of the decade by the Financial Times. Her latest book, "Uncharted," addresses many of the core themes and subjects that have captivated our attention on this podcast for years. Lees meer
In today's conversation, Margaret and Demetri explore many of the various phenomena that arise from our unhealthy relationship with the future.
Whether it's the on-air financial host pumping & dumping stocks to his viewers, the policymaker forecasting unemployment figures and growth rates, or the Silicon Valley executive predicting autonomous fleets of vehicles, telepathy, and jobs on mars, all within a decade, it is our discomfort with uncertainty and simultaneous craving for reassurance that fuels so many of the commercial and political operations of daily life.
And yet, history is an incomplete data set. We know this because the future is full of things that have never been here before. So, if we want to successfully confront the unknown challenges to come, we need to begin by acknowledging that we cannot plan for them. The best we can hope to do is prepare, and fortunately for us, Margaret Heffernan is just the person to help us do it.
For those who want access to the episode overtime, as well as to the transcript and rundown to this week's episode, you can find all of that on the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed
Write us a review on Apple Podcasts
Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website
Produce…
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Is Gold in a New Bull Market? A Deep-Dive Into Humanity's 5,000-Year-Old Obsession | Rick Rule
10 augustus 2020 · 52 min
In Episode 150 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Rick Rule, President & CEO of Sprott US Holdings and Senior Managing Director of Sprott Inc. a global, alternative asset manager focused on precious metals and real assets with approximately 12 billion dollars in assets under management. Lees meer
After spending most of the last decade in a period of prolonged underperformance, gold has spent the last two years on a tear, up 67% since September 2018. This episode is meant to introduce Hidden Forces listeners to gold, precious metals, and the larger natural resource industry. We discuss gold's physical qualities as a commodity that needs to be prospected, mined, extracted, refined, and stored, as well as its investment profile in the form of bullion, equities, and derivative products like futures, options, and ETFs.
We also spend time in the regular episode discussing gold in philosophical terms. What is gold? What is it that gives gold its value? Is gold a hedge against inflation? Is it insurance, and if so, insurance against what? Finally, is it possible to even talk about gold without discussing the macroeconomy, credit markets, and ultimately people's faith in the institution of paper money?
Other topics include the supply and demand-side drivers of the gold price, what Rick Rule sees in terms of institutional demand for gold, how the mining industry has changed over the last few decades, the relationship of gold to silver and where the silver market is trending, the use of public ledgers and blockchain-related technologies in the precious metals industry, and much, much more.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple …
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The Death of Engagement: America's New Cold War with China | Orville Schell
3 augustus 2020 · 1 uur 4 min
In Episode 149 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Orville Schell, Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society about the implications of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's monumental speech at the Nixon Library, the history of engagement with China's Communist Party, and what a New Cold War with China will mean for the future of peace and security. Lees meer
Dr. Schell's career as a China scholar spans the entire arch of US-Sino relations since Nixon's fateful trip to the Middle Kingdom in 1972 and the opening up of China to the world.
The same year (1967) that Dr. Schell earned his master's degree in Chinese studies an astounding 70 percent of Americans agreed on one thing: the greatest threat to U.S. security was the People's Republic of China. After fifty years of engagement where relations between the two nations would improve dramatically, Americans are now back to viewing China as an enemy.
A Pew Research Center poll conducted in March 2020 shows that roughly two-thirds of Americans now say they have an unfavorable view of China, the most negative rating for the country since the Center began asking the question in 2005, and up nearly 20 percentage points since the start of the Trump administration. Positive views of China's leader, President Xi Jinping, are also at historically low levels.
In a recent speech delivered at the Nixon Presidential Library, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared the failure of 50 years of engagement with China and called for the free world to stand up against this "new tyranny" in what felt very much like the beginning of a new cold war.
"It's true, there are differences," remarked Pompeo, when contrasting China to the USSR. "Unlike the Soviet Union, China is deeply integrated into the global economy. But Beijing is more dependent on us than we are on them." "I reject the notion," he continued, "that we're living in an age of inevitability, that some trap is pre-ordained, that CCP supremacy is the futur…
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The Rise of Decentralized Finance | Framework Ventures' Michael Anderson & Vance Spencer
27 juli 2020 · 57 min
In Episode 148 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Anderson and Vance Spencer. Mike and Vance are the founders of Framework Ventures, a thesis-driven venture capital firm whose team of technologists, researchers, and investors partner with founders and teams to build token-based networks and develop the requisite cryptoeconomics, governance, and community to scale. Lees meer
The team's focus is on the hot new space of decentralized finance, known as DeFi for short. They are the largest owners outside of the core team & exchanges of both the decentralized oracle provider Chainlink and the derivatives platform Synthetix.
Framework's investment thesis relies on three assumptions. The first is that (1) financial institutions will realize competitive advantages as smart contract functionality allows them to streamline costs and realize new revenue streams. (2) Permissionless open protocols will provide access to financial services to a wider range of people than is possible today. (3) Token-based business models have a competitive advantage over traditional business models for some technical products.
During this episode, we explore a number of use cases and applications that Framework's founders believe will drive value in DeFi. We discuss cryptoeconomics in the context of how to capture network value, the "chicken-or-the-egg" problem of initializing a two-sided network and consider a new approach to valuation that breaks with some of the models and formulas that were popularized during the ICO craze of 2017.
The team also discusses their investments in Chainlink and Synthetix, including a discussion about the tech, tokenomics, and community of these projects.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of H…
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What the Twitter Hack Tells Us About Why the Internet Is Broken & How to Fix It | Muneeb Ali
22 juli 2020 · 1 uur 3 min
In Episode 147 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Muneeb Ali, co-founder of Blockstack, a full-stack decentralized computing platform and app ecosystem that puts users in control of their identity & data. Lees meer
The two spend the first half of their conversation discussing the recent twitter hack and what lessons can be drawn from the attack.
The rest of the episode (including the overtime) is spent on Blockstack and how protocols like it offer solutions for problems of security and privacy on the Internet today.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed
Write us a review on Apple Podcasts
Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website=
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Episode Recorded on 07/19/2020
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Don't Label Me: How to Do Diversity Without Inflaming the Culture Wars | Irshad Manji
20 juli 2020 · 1 uur 13 min
In Episode 146 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Irshad Manji, a public intellectual, best-selling author, and Emmy award nominated documentary filmmaker whose latest book "Don't Label Me," attempts to educate readers on how to have conversations about politically sensitive subjects without inflaming the culture wars. It should not surprise anyone to learn, therefore, that today's conversation with Irshad is one of the most pleasant, honest, and meaningful that we have ever had on this podcast. Lees meer
Unlike this conversation, public discourse today often feels like a series of battles and skirmishes between two monolithic view points. Discussions likewise, are often seen as opportunities to try one another in the court of public opinion. If we accept that a pluralistic, democratic society is the best way to safeguard the values and freedoms that have allowed us to manifest our individual identities, then how can we be told that in order to protect those identities we should curtail the very freedoms that gave rise to them in the first place?
We are living through a very dark period in American life. Diversity has become a sort of "rallying cry" whose champions espouse exclusively in terms of race, gender, and sexual orientation. When it comes to opinions, values, and beliefs, tolerance for diversity of opinion is nowhere to be found. And yet, a pluralistic society demands that its citizens are granted the freedom to express themselves and their beliefs without fear or reprisal or condemnation. Those who seek to silence us therefore are not champions of liberty. They are tyrants masquerading as victims who seek to exercise power over the very people who they label as their oppressors.
Today's conversation should serve (hopefully) as an inspiration for the types of discussions and free exchanges of ideas that we should all strive to have and which we need to have if we want to make it through this difficult period in our history.
You can access the episode …
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The Rise of Ethereum, the Future of DeFi, & the Transformation of Crypto Media | Camila Russo
13 juli 2020 · 59 min
In Episode 145 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Camila Russo, the host of the Defiant podcast and author of "The Infinite Machine," the first official account of the rise of the Ethereum blockchain. Lees meer
The first 25 minutes of this conversation explores Camila's experience working as a journalist in Argentina, how she got interested in covering cryptocurrencies, as well as her process for writing such an ambitious book. The rest of the episode deals mostly with the book itself, including a discussion about the ICO craze of 2017 and the impact that it's had on Ethereum, it's developer community, and investor appetite for funding new ventures and initiatives in the space.
This part of the conversation continues into the overtime, where we also debate whether or not the ICO model itself is the ideal mechanism by which to fund early-stage, open source innovations. We also discuss what it's like to be a journalist covering crypto today, how the media industry in crypto has changed in the years since the onset of the 2018 bear market, and the opportunities for more sophisticated, high-quality journalism in the space going forward.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed
Write us a review on Apple Podcasts
Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Episode Recorded on 07/06/2020
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Grandstanding: the Use and Abuse of Moral Talk | Brandon Warmke & Justin Tosi
6 juli 2020 · 1 uur 5 min
In Episode 144 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with philosophers Brandon Warmke and Justin Tosi about the phenomenon of grandstanding, which they define as "the use and abuse of moral talk for the purposes of self-promotion." Lees meer
Although moral grandstanding is a spectacle most commonly associated with those on the political left, the practice of grandstanding is an entirely bipartisan phenomenon. Its increased prevalence in public discourse has dangerous implications for politics and society.
For grandstanders, it isn't the pursuit of virtue that motivates them. They aren't concerned with doing good; they're concerned with looking good; they want others to think that they are morally superior, and they're willing to go to great lengths in order to do it, including using moral talk as a tactic for punishment and intimidation.
The irony is that grandstanders accomplish all of this by free-riding on the moral behavior and good intentions of others. They turn civil discourse into a moral arms race, weaponizing language, and silencing their enemies with threats of doxing and humiliation.
Our society is currently going through a seismic transition. Norms are being radically upended and Americans are experiencing levels of political polarization arguably unseen since at least the 1970s. If we want to make it through this period in one piece, as one nation, undivided we need to reclaim the moral high ground in our discourse. Otherwise, I'm afraid we're in danger of losing control of our country to the darker forces of our nature, and this would not bode well for the future of our republic.
If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Become a premium subscriber, which gives you access to our episode overtimes, as well as transcripts and rundowns to each week's episode. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Subscribe …
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How to Fix America's Broken Health System (And Why It Hasn't Happened) | Vivian Lee
29 juni 2020 · 50 min
In Episode 143 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vivian Lee, President of Health Platforms at Verily Life Sciences (an Alphabet company) about America's broken health system, how to fix it, and why it's been so difficult to do until now. Lees meer
According to an Institute of Medicine 2012 study, we waste 30 cents of every dollar we spend on health care. That's over $1 trillion per year. Nearly one-fifth of the US economy goes to pay for health. That's two to three times more than other high-income OECD nations where health coverage is universal. And yet, our life-expectancy statistics place us 26th out of 35 among those same OECD countries. How is this possible?
What you are going to learn today is that while the solution to America's broken health system is complicated, the problem is rather simple: our incentives are totally "out-of-whack." Our fee-for-service system rewards action, not better health outcomes. It encourages overtreatment and specialty care at the expense of prevention and primary care. This is the fundamental flaw of American health care. But this isn't the entire story. How we pay for healthcare is equally important.
Most Americans don't buy health care. They buy health insurance. This incentive structure often puts insurers and doctors at odds with patients' interests. Insurers who pay doctors and hospitals for care are incentivized to spend as little as possible on a patient's health. The less they payout, the more profit they make. Conversely, in a pay-for-action model, most doctors and hospitals are incentivized to spend as much as possible. This means patients (or more precisely, their premiums) are the rope in an annual trillion-dollar tug of war. Doctors and hospitals pull by ordering more tests and operations; insurers yank back by denying those services or adding restrictions like "prior authorization" paperwork for expensive medication and tests. When hospitals or doctors charge more than insurers are willing to pay, patients can…
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'Stonks,' the Rise of Retail Bros, & Powell's Money Printer | Tony Greer
18 juni 2020 · 51 min
In Episode 142 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator and founder of TG Macro. Lees meer
This episode begins with a clip from David Portnoy (a.k.a Barstool Dave or Davey Daytrader), in what is probably the most epic hype video ever created for stock trading.
Portnoy has come to personify not only the recent rip-roaring retracement in equities, but also, the philosophy that the stock market no longer bears any relationship to the real economy. "It took me a while to figure out that the stock market isn't connected to the economy," according to David Portnoy. "I tell people there are two rules to investing: Stocks only go up, and if you have any problems, see rule No. 1."
Extraordinary monetary interventions remain the single most important causal factor for explaining this phenomenon (what we have referred to on this show as "market nihilism"). Whether investment flows are coming from passive funds or "passive people," what's important is that the allocators invest indiscriminately. As the popular fraise goes: "Always buy the fucking dip" (#ABTFD)
In our past episodes with Mike Green, we have explored the role of systematic passive investment vehicles in driving markets higher. With the recent return of the retail investor an additional layer of passivity has been added. Not only are these investors seemingly "price inelastic," but they also exhibit a disturbing level of indifference to fundamentals that is qualitatively different from anything seen in past generations. Unlike the Gen-X and Boomer cohorts of 1999 who felt that they could see a future that others could not yet perceive, this generation of zoomers and millennials seems to feel that they have figured out something far more fundamental about how things work today. In their view, the notion that the stock market has any relationship to economic reality is laughable. Fundamentals can't hold a candle to Jay Powell and his money printer. Along with this realizati…
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Co-Founder of Neoliberal School on the Foreign Policy of Presidents from F.D.R. to Trump | Joseph Nye
15 juni 2020 · 1 uur
In Episode 141 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joseph Nye, the co-founder of the international relations theory of neoliberalism who is credited with developing the concept of "soft power." Lees meer
In his latest book "Do Morals Matter?," Dr. Nye meticulously weighs the ethics of the foreign policy decisions of American presidents from F.D.R. to Donald Trump. He argues that good moral reasoning should be three-dimensional, weighing and balancing the intentions, the means, and the consequences of a president's decisions. "A moral foreign policy is not a matter of intentions versus consequences but must involve both as well as the means that were used," professes Joseph Nye.
In this conversation, Demetri and professor Nye discuss the presidencies of Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. Nye compares and contrasts the various presidents, their tenures, policy challenges & opportunities, as well as the moral dimensions of some of their most consequential decisions.
The second hour of today's episode, which is available to our premium subscribers, deals primarily with the Obama and Trump presidencies, including a detailed discussion about the contemporary challenges facing the United States in a multi-polar world.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
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Episode Recorded on 06/08/2020
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Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation & Political Warfare | Thomas Rid
8 juni 2020 · 47 min
In Episode 140 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Thomas Rid, Professor of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies about active measures, the history of disinformation, and political warfare. Lees meer
We live in the age of organized deception. Spy agencies pour vast resources into hacking, leaking, and forging data, often with the goal of weakening the very foundation of liberal democracy: trust in facts. As a renowned expert on technology and national security, Thomas Rid was one of the first to sound the alarm. More than four months before the 2016 election, he warned that Russian military intelligence was "carefully planning and timing a high-stakes political campaign" to disrupt the democratic process. But as crafty as such so-called active measures have become, they are not new.
The story of modern disinformation begins with the post-Russian Revolution clash between communism and capitalism, which would come to define the Cold War. In this conversation about active measures, Rid reveals startling intelligence and security secrets from materials written in more than ten languages across several nations, and from interviews with current and former operatives. He exposes the disturbing yet colorful history of professional, organized lying, tracks the rise of leaking, and shows how spies began to exploit emerging internet culture many years before WikiLeaks. Finally, he sheds new light on the 2016 election, especially the role of the infamous "troll farm" in St. Petersburg as well as a much more harmful attack that unfolded in the shadows.
During a period of heightened emotions, extreme politics, and dangerous precedents, this conversation will help listeners to understand how we got here and what we can do in order to make it safely through the other side.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers g…
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The Age of Monopoly: Power, Censorship, & The New Consensus | Matt Stoller
1 juni 2020 · 1 uur 3 min
In Episode 139 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Matt Stoller, Director of Research at the American Economic Liberties Project and author of Goliath: The Hundred Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracy. In this nearly two-hour long conversation, we discuss how monopoly, commercial concentration, and regulatory capture drive outcomes in our economy, markets, and political system and what we can do to take that power back. Lees meer
This episode was recorded on Friday, May 29th, amidst the riots that have been unfolding across the country in response to the death of George Floyd, a 46-year old African American man who appears to have been suffocated by Minneapolis Police officer Derek Chauvin. Neither Matt or Demetri are in any position to provide further insight into what is transpiring in Minneapolis, but they do discuss the response by some members of the media, the White House, as well as the President's statement that he is going to issue an executive order to roll back Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act with its legal protections for social media companies.
We also discuss the Joe Rogan-Spotify deal in the context of antitrust regulation and concentration in the podcast industry, the arrest of a CNN crew in Minneapolis, private equity and the regulatory capture of government by the financial sector, and perhaps most importantly a conversation about the future of the Democratic and Republican parties and whether we are living through the early stages of a new political consensus forming in American life.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and …
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Germany's Constitutional Court Ruling & the Myth of Central Bank Independence | Adam Tooze
25 mei 2020 · 54 min
In Episode 138 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Tooze, professor of history and Director of the European Institute at Columbia University about the German Constitutional Court's recent ruling. In its decision, the German Court finds that the European Central Bank's 2015 bond-buying program would be illegal under German law unless the ECB can prove the purchases are justified. The ruling threatens to undermine the very credibility of Central Bank independence, which has always been predicated on a political consensus about what the proper role of monetary policy is, how it should operate, and what its objectives should be. Lees meer
This consensus no longer holds, not only in Europe but across much of the developed world. Left unresolved, the contradictions between the mandates of central banks and their policy actions will only worsen the type of political dysfunction that threatens the very independence that they seek to protect.
For Hidden Forces premium subscribers, this week's hour-long episode overtime looks at how our collective response to the COVID-19 pandemic may say more about our own fear of death and disease than about the actual dangers posed by the virus. By calling into question our mastery over life and death the disease shakes the psychological basis of our social and economic order. It poses fundamental questions about priorities; it upends the terms of debate. It's a conversation about history, philosophy, and the benefits and consequences of human progress.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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How the Wealth Gap Drives Imbalances in Global Trade & Finance | Michael Pettis
18 mei 2020 · 1 uur 2 min
In Episode 137 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with professor of finance at Beijing's Peking University, Michael Pettis. Profesor Pettis' research has focused mainly on Chinese financial markets, global trade & capital flows, and central banking. He spent seventeen years on Wall Street running fixed-income trading and capital market desks and has advised governments on privatizations of national banking systems and commercial bank debt restructuring & loan issuance. Lees meer
In their latest book, "Trade Wars are Class Wars," Michael Pettis and his co-author Matthew Klein argue that rising inequality within countries heightens trade conflicts between them. The entire conversation lasts for approximately two hours and we devote the first hour to understanding how balance of payments and capital flows—themselves heavily dependent on the dynamics of wealth and income distribution within a country's borders—can generate imbalances in trade, asset prices, interest rates, debt levels, and currency valuations, often leading to misallocations of capital for the surplus and deficit countries alike.
The second hour is devoted to applying this balance of payments framework to specific economies—namely, the United States, the Eurozone, and China. Demetri and Michael discuss how the financial instability generated from the sorts of imbalances discussed in this episode are now seeping into our systems of government, turning a financial crisis into a political one.
For Super Nerds and Autodidacts, you will want to consult your rundowns and have your transcripts handy for this episode. There are links in the rundown to many of the concepts and theories discussed, as well as charts and images that are relevant to the discussion.
You can access the overtime of Demetri's conversation with Michael Pettis, as well as obtain copies of the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can b…
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The Great Monetary Inflation & the Future of Digital Money | Michael Casey
11 mei 2020 · 1 uur 9 min
In Episode 136 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with CoinDesk Chief Content Officer Michael Casey about "The Great Monetary Inflation" and the future of digital money. The two chronicle the financialization of the global economy that occured between the end of gold convertibility in 1971 and the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. They discuss how the period of the 1970's weighed heavily on the American zeitgeist and the political transformation that occurred between the start of the Iran hostage crisis and the fall of the Berlin Wall. The episode culminates in a conversation about the political and monetary forces that have been unleashed in response to the spread of COVID-19 and their implications for the future of capitalism and liberal democracy. Lees meer
For those interested in attending the Consensus 2020 conference, you can find more information at https://www.coindesk.com/events/consensus-2020. You can also sign up for Michael's weekly email newsletter, Money Reimagined, as well as other CoinDesk newsletters at https://www.coindesk.com/newsletters.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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'The Food Supply Chain is Breaking': Food Security During a Global Pandemic | Lowell Randel
4 mei 2020 · 49 min
In Episode 135 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Lowell Randel, Vice President of Government and Legal Affairs for the Global Cold Chain Alliance, which serves as the voice of the cold chain industry, representing 1,300 member companies in over 85 countries. The two discuss the impact that COVID-19 and the government shutdowns have had on food supply chains, processing facilities, and the industrial farm sector. Lees meer
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant shifts in consumer demand away from food service businesses like restaurants and towards foot retail outlets like supermarkets and groceries. Food industry players are in turn looking to adapt, redirecting products originally destined for the food service sector to retail instead. This has created challenges for farmers that have led, in some cases, to the euthanization of livestock and the wholesale destruction of crops ready for harvest.
This episode uses the crisis caused by COVID-19 and the government mandated shutdowns in order to understand the vulnerabilities of our food supply networks with an eye on finding ways to improve their resiliency going forward.
You can access my conversation with TeslaCharts & Georgia Owell, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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Radical Uncertainty: Investing in a Volatile World | Eric Peters
27 april 2020 · 56 min
In Episode 134 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management and author of Weekend Notes about investing in a volatile world where four decades of assumptions about markets, politics, and policy no longer hold. Lees meer
We are living through a period of radical uncertainty and disillusionment with institutions and markets that we haven't seen for a hundred years. International alliances are shifting. National priorities are changing. The role of government in society is growing. The stakes for portfolio managers, politicians and individuals have never been higher.
Learning how to navigate the volatility and radical uncertainty of the present moment is the seminal challenge that we face. How we manage that uncertainty in the years to come presents not only a financial challenge but an emotional one as well. It will define a generation and shape the fortunes of more to come.
If you want access to Demetri's overtime with Eric Peters, as well as to the transcript and rundown for this week's episode you can find those on our Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Demeri does not take sponsors. Hidden Forces is 100% listener funded. If you value the show please consider joining our over 1000 premium subscribers. Learn more at HiddenForces.io/Subscribe.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Monetary Revolution: Innovation in the Age of Financial Repression | Nic Carter
27 april 2020 · 1 uur 47 min
Nic Carter is a partner at Castle Island Ventures, a Cambridge MA-based venture fund focused on seed stage investments in public blockchain startups. He's also the cofounder and chairman of Coin Metrics, a blockchain analytics company and he is a regular columnist at CoinDesk where he writes thoughtfully about the political economy and issues concerning bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. Lees meer
Nic been on the show before; he was our guest on episode 97. He's thoughtful; he's interesting to talk to, and this conversation turned out to be so enjoyable that we've decided to make it available to everyone.
If you like what you hear, please take a moment to share your thoughts and feelings about the podcast on twitter or as a review on Apple Podcasts.
If you are interested in supporting the show and gaining access to our premium RSS feed, as well as to transcripts, notes, & rundowns from every episode you can do this directly through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our RSS feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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The Power of Authenticity, Narrative, & Breaking the Ad Model | Grant Williams & Ben Hunt
20 april 2020 · 54 min
In this Special Episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas releases the overtime segment to Episode 123 with Grant Williams and Ben Hunt. The three discuss the power of authenticity and narrative in an era of fake news and "ponzi people," what it's like to build a content business, what they've learned doing it, and what drives them to keep going. Lees meer
You can support Demetri and the team at Hidden Forces by becoming a premium subscriber, which gives you access to transcripts, rundowns, and overtime segments, including this week's special recording with Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter.
All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Your support is what makes this program possible.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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Surveying the Damage: The State of China's Economy in the Wake of COVID-19 | Leland Miller
13 april 2020 · 55 min
In Episode 133 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, which runs the largest private Chinese data collection operation in the world, about the state of China's economy in the wake of COVID-19. The two discuss the impact of the global shutdown on all the major sectors of China's economy, as well as the implications for China's already fragile banking system. Lees meer
During the overtime, Leland and Demetri consider a host of geopolitical consequences that could flow from the ongoing global disruptions. They also discuss the effects to Chinese real estate and how the CCP may try a catastrophic contraction.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Supply Chains with ISM CEO | Tom Derry
9 april 2020 · 55 min
In Episode 132 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tom Derry, CEO of the Institute for Supply Management and publisher of the market-moving ISM Manufacturing Index about the impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains. This is a deep-dive into how the intricate world of just-in-time manufacturing, outsourcing, and globalization has been impacted by the world-wide disruptions caused by the novel coronavirus. Lees meer
In recent years, global supply chains have been in the process of a fundamental shift, in part to strengthen their immune systems to mitigate the risk of multiple threats — unprecedented trade turbulence, as well as economic uncertainty, geopolitical events and rising labor costs. COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) has provided a severe new test to these global supply chains. Since its genesis in the manufacturing hub of Wuhan, China, in December, the outbreak has resulted in more than one million documented cases and nearly sixty thousand deaths worldwide, quarantined workers, temporarily shuttered factories, canceled high-profile events, shaken markets and handcuffed supply management organizations at many companies. The gravity of the situation was exemplified in a survey by Institute for Supply Management, which found that nearly three-fourths (72%) of U.S. companies have experienced supply chain disruptions due to coronavirus-related transportation restrictions, and 81% of organizations expect their procurement operations to be impacted by COVID-19. For some of those companies, the infection goes beyond the supply chain, as 16% of survey respondents report lowering annual revenue targets by an average of 5.6%. More than half (53%) of the 628 respondents in ISM's recent survey said their companies are having trouble getting supply chain information from China.
You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which ca…
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The Second Leg Down: Strategies for Profiting After a Market Sell-Off | Hari Krishnan
5 april 2020 · 1 uur 4 min
In Episode 131 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Hari Krishnan, a portfolio manager at Doherty Advisors responsible for the VXR (VIX replication strategy) and hedging solutions business. The two discuss Hari's thesis around risk management, portfolio construction and positioning once a market downturn is already underway. Although the content discussed in this episode is considered "sophisticated," we try and make it accessible to the average listener. Topics include the investor mindset, protecting against systemic risk, options pricing, the role of credit in the market cycle, endogenous vs. exogenous risk, agent-based modeling, exchange traded products, volatility, and trend following strategies. Lees meer
The overtime includes more detailed examples of tactics and strategies that can be deployed in service of risk mitigation and profit making during the type of market-downturn that we are now experiencing.
You can access that overtime, along with the rundown and transcript to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Gillian Tett | Wartime Economy: The Greatest Financial & Political Crisis Since World War II
31 maart 2020 · 44 min
In Episode 130 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Gillian Tett, chair of the editorial board and editor-at-large of the Financial Times about America's new "wartime economy" and the unspoken consequences of the most radical financial and political crisis since World War II. Lees meer
Demetri starts the conversation by asking Gillian what it's like to run the largest financial newspaper in the world during the greatest economic and political crisis in three generations. The two discuss the latest central bank policy actions, fiscal stimulus, and a series of other timely topics ranging from distressed corporates, emerging markets, dollar funding, and much, much more.
If you want to read the transcript to today's conversation or gain access to the rundown for this episode head over to the Hidden Forces Patreon Page and subscribe to one of our three content tiers. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. By becoming a monthly subscriber you are helping to make this podcast possible.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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Why a Spike in the Price of Gold Futures Matters for People Buying Toilet Paper in Nebraska | Josh Crumb
30 maart 2020 · 1 uur 13 min
In Episode 129 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Josh Crumb, founder & CEO of Abaxx Technologies, which is launching a new commodity futures exchange in Singapore over the next year. Josh was formerly a macro economist and commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, where he was the head of metals strategy. He is also a co-founder of gold bullion dealer Goldmoney, and Jewelry company Mene. Lees meer
In their conversation, Josh and Demetri discuss a curious case of backwardation on the COMEX, which is the futures and options market for trading metals in New York. The price of gold in near-dated futures expiring at the end of March spiked by almost 10% to $70 an ounce above the price of obtaining physical gold in London. Only on a handful of occasions since 2000 have gold prices risen more in a single week, including immediately after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.
Josh Crumb explains what really happened in the early hours of March 24, how disruptions to global supply chains caused by COVID-19 factor in, and why it matters to you.
If you are interested in becoming a supporter of Hidden Forces, head over to our Patreon Page and subscribe to one of our three content tiers, giving you access to the overtime, transcript, and rundown to this and all prior episodes. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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George Selgin | Government-Mandated Shutdown: Monetary & Fiscal Policy in Crisis
28 maart 2020 · 59 min
In Episode 128 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with George Selgin, director of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute about the recently announced monetary and fiscal policy measures being undertaken to stem the economic fallout from COVID-19 and the government mandated shutdown of the American economy. This is a deep-dive into the specifics of the Federal Reserve and US government's policies, including the mechanics of the monetary and fiscal stimulus. Lees meer
We are living in unprecedented times. The closest analogy to what we are experiencing is the mobilization undertaken to fight World War II with one crucial difference: this is a radical demobilization of the American economy. To fight the virus, Americans are being asked to stay in their homes and move about as little as possible. In order to survive a prolonged period of commercial inactivity governments have moved swiftly to pass monetary and fiscal stimulus measures that are themselves as unprecedented as the current lock-down of the global economy. How far will these measures go and what will Western countries like the United States look like on the other side of this crisis? Answering this question may prove more important than any other we have posed before on this program, and we try to answer it today.
You can access the overtime, transcript, and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. By becoming a monthly subscriber you are helping to make this podcast possible.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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Ben Hubbard | Saudi Arabia's Oil Price War & the Rise of Mohammed Bin Salman
23 maart 2020 · 53 min
In Episode 127 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ben Hubbard, the Beirut bureau chief for The New York Times about Saudi Arabia and the rise to power of Mohammed bin Salman. Topics include the ongoing oil price war, tensions with Iran, the war in Yemen, and the geopolitics of the Middle East. The two also discuss the impact of coronavirus for the region's politics and security. Lees meer
According to Ben Hubbard, when King Salman of Saudi Arabia ascended to the throne in January 2015 and began bestowing enormous powers on his 29-year-old son, Mohammed bin Salman, it sent minds reeling. Given Saudi Arabia's importance as the wealthiest country in the Middle East and a key partner of the West, foreign officials, journalists, experts, and spies had long scrutinized the Saudi royal family to anticipate who might come to power in the future—and MBS, as he was known, had remained far off the radar. Who, they wondered, was this inexperienced young prince who swiftly asserted his control over the kingdom's oil, military, finances, and domestic and foreign policy? And could he be trusted?
Ben closely tracks MBS's trajectory to shed light on the man and the critical country he controls. He explores Saudi Arabia's closed and opaque society and tracks Mohammad bin Salman from his earliest days in power. With vows to diversify the kingdom's economy away from oil, loosen its strict Islamic social codes, and champion the fight against extremism, the young prince won admirers on Wall Street and in Washington, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood with his grand visions for a new Saudi Arabia and a reordered Middle East. In 2017, Saudi Arabia made global headlines by announcing that it would lift its long-time ban on women driving and hosting a lavish "Davos in the Desert" conference, where MBS wowed international financiers with plans for a new $500 billion city that he said would be powered by sustainable energy and staffed by robots—serving as "a roadmap for the future of civilizati…
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Coronavirus: An Analysis Using Complex Dynamic Systems Theory | Yaneer Bar-Yam
19 maart 2020 · 46 min
In this Special Episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Yaneer Bar-Yam, President of the New England Complex Systems Institute. Professor Bar-Yam studies the unified properties of complex systems as a systematic strategy for answering basic questions about the world. His research is focused both on formalizing complex systems concepts and relating them to everyday problems. In particular, he studies the relationship between observations at different scales, formal properties of descriptions of systems, the relationship of structure and function, the representation of information as a physical quantity, and quantitative properties of the complexity of real systems. Applications have been to physical, biological, and social systems. Lees meer
He has applied this background to COVID-19 by not only studying the virus, but by actually launching endCoronavirus.org, a website built and maintained by NESCI whose "goal is to minimize the impact of COVID-19 by providing useful data and guidelines for action." Yaneer and his colleagues have put out more alarming numbers than those often cited by public officials in recent weeks and months. According to Yaneer's research team, which has co-faculty, students and affiliates from MIT, Harvard, Brandeis and other universities, "COVID-19 is a rapidly transmitting disease that evolves in 20% of cases to require extended hospitalizations and roughly 2-4% of cases result in death, with risks increasing rapidly for those over 50 years old. It can transmit even with mild symptoms (coughing, sneezing, or elevated temperature) and perhaps before symptoms appear." He believes that reducing the likelihood of transmission requires everyone to reduce their likelihood of contact not only so they aren't infected but also so that they don't transmit the disease to others. If everyone got tested for COVID-19, according to Yaneer, we could temporarily separate the infected from the uninfected, and this would help reduce the spread of the viru…
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Theories of War & How the 'Rest' Learned to Fight the West | David Kilcullen
16 maart 2020 · 1 uur 6 min
In Episode 126 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with David Kilcullen, a theorist and practitioner of guerrilla and unconventional warfare, and counterterrorism. David has amassed extensive operational experience over a 25 year career with the Australian and U.S. governments as an army officer, analyst, policy advisor and diplomat. He served in Iraq as senior counterinsurgency advisor to U.S. General David Petraeus and was senior advisor to U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice. He has served in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Libya, and Colombia. He's Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales, Canberra. He's also the author of five prize winning books on terrorism, insurgency, and future warfare, including his latest, "The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West." This episode deals mainly with the evolution of warfare and the threats we currently face, including an extensive analysis of Chinese and Russian conventional and unconventional methods targeting the West. The two also discuss the emergency measures currently being put into place across the world in response to the spread of Coronavirus and the implications of those measures for the future of liberal democracy. Lees meer
The second hour of Demetri and David's conversation includes a deep-dive into Russiagate, as well as the types of strategies of liminal warfare being employed by Putin and the Russian Federation against America and the West. The two also speculate about how Western adversaries may inflict further damage upon them during the 2020 election, capitalize on internal divisions, refugee crises, as well as this latest, global pandemic.
You can access the second hour, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & …
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Mike Green | Passive Investing's Role in the Coronavirus Market Melt-Down & Prospects for a Melt-Up
15 maart 2020 · 50 min
In this Special Episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chief Strategist & Portfolio Manager at Logica Capital Advisers, Mike Green, who returns for a timely conversation about the recent market melt-down, the fundamental economic and political impacts of coronavirus, and prospects for a stimulus-driven melt-up that may bring about the greatest bout of inflation in more than a generation. Lees meer
Hidden Forces is made possible by listeners like you. Please take a moment to support the show by subscribing to one of our three premium content tiers.
You can access the rundowns, transcripts, and overtimes to our weekly episodes through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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Laura Huang | Find Your Edge: Learning How to Turn Adversity into Advantage
9 maart 2020 · 58 min
In Episode 125 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Harvard's Laura Huang about her research into intuition and behavior as it relates to investing and entrepreneurship. Rather than focus on our shortcomings, Laura teaches us how to turn adversity into advantage. Lees meer
The title of Laura's book is an acronym that stands for four different words: Enrich, Delight, Guide, and Effort. The foundation of our edge, according to Laura, comes from our ability to provide value to and enrich those around us. Those who have an edge find ways to enrich and bring value to others rather than posturing about the supposed value they bring (we all know people like that). Those who have an edge, however, are also able to demonstrate and effectively communicate the value they bring, rather than leaving it up to others to guess. However, before we can enrich others, we have to be let in. Those who already have an understanding of how they enrich are most equipped to delight. Delighting isn't synonymous with being charming or entertaining, or charismatic in the typical sense. And everyone has the power to delight. Delight can help pacify skepticism and misgivings. The third letter stands for "Guide." When we know (and can figure out) how others see us, it gives us the capacity to guide and redirect that perception, so that we can influence how they grasp and appreciate the value we command and the edge we bring. Finally, Laura points out how "Effort" and hard work reinforce the edge that we create for ourselves. Sometimes it's as much what we do as it is the effort that we put into not doing other things. Don't be mistaken—hard work is critical. But ultimately, gaining an edge requires hard work, plus.
This is a great episode for anyone struggling with figuring out how to turn hard work into success.
You can access this week's overtime segment, transcript, and rundown through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily…
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Peter Zeihan | Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World
2 maart 2020 · 1 uur 7 min
In Episode 124 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist who combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help his clients prepare for an uncertain future. Before founding his own strategy firm, Peter helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world's premier private intelligence companies. He's also a critically-acclaimed author whose first two books — The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower — have been recommended by Mitt Romney, Fareed Zakaria and Ian Bremmer. His latest book, "Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World," hits bookstores tomorrow. Lees meer
This is one of the most educational conversations that we have ever recorded on Hidden Forces. The episode is meant to provide you with a comprehensive overview of Peter Zeihan's work and outlook on the subjects of foreign affairs, economics, and geopolitics. The goal is to help you understand just how abnormal our world has been for the last 70 years and what a return to a more "normal world" is going to look like. America's withdrawal from the world has consequences for governments, business people, retirees, and especially for anyone who is living or invested in countries that have been the primary beneficiaries of the American lead international Order of the past three generations.
In the first hour, Peter lays the foundation for what this new world is going to look like, how it differs from the world we've inhabited since the end of World War Two, and what sorts of forces will be driving the changes that we can expect to experience over the next few decades. Towards the end of the episode we start to get into specific countries and regions, exploring the types of changes that we can expect to see economically, politically, geographically, and militarily in the not-too-distant future.
The future that Peter lays out is one of both risk and opportunity, and we…
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Financial Nihilism: Price Discovery in a World Where Nothing Matters | Ben Hunt & Grant Williams
24 februari 2020 · 1 uur 4 min
In Episode 123 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with two guests who have each made one prior appearance on Hidden Forces: Grant Williams and Ben Hunt. Ben is the founder of the widely read Epsilon Theory, a newsletter and website that's become popular for its insights and analysis into markets and society with a particular focus on how narrative drives our perception of the world and our place in it. Grant is the long-time publisher of a popular financial newsletter, the host of a phenomenal sports podcast, and the co-founder of Real Vision, a financial media company that offers in-depth video interviews with some of the world's most thoughtful investors. Lees meer
Today's conversation is broken into two parts, the second hour of which is available to our paid subscribers. In the first part we discuss a philosophy that Demetri calls "financial nihilism," which treats the objects of speculation as though they were intrinsically worthless.
We are witnessing price movements characteristic of a raging bull market without the euphoria that typically accompanies them. The rationalization that governments will "fix the mess" and that central banks will "buy the dip" channels a deeper sense of existential meaninglessness. Whether it's the decline of religion, the dismantling of the nation state, or the commodification of the self, something feels lacking.
In the second hour, the three continue their discussion about markets but also delve into more personal stories from their lives and careers. Grant shares anecdotes from his experience interviewing some of the most brilliant minds in finance and Ben shares insights from his own creative process and what motivates him. All in all, this is one of the best conversations we've ever released.
If you are interested in accessing the overtime, transcript, and/or rundown to this week's episode, you can do that through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added…
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Demetri Kofinas Shares Stories from his Life and Career in Markets and the Media on TC's Chartcast
17 februari 2020 · 1 uur 7 min
Demetri Kofinas makes a guest appearance on TC's Chartcast, a boutique podcast for short sellers hosted by Tesla Charts and Georgia Orwell. Demetri shares stories from his life and career in markets and the media, including lessons learned from his experience overcoming dementia in his early 30's. TC's Chartcast is available on most major podcast platforms and you can follow TC and Georgia on twitter at @TeslaCharts and @Georgia_Orwell_. Lees meer
If you are interested in learning more about Demetri's podcast, head over to HiddenForces.io and subscribe to our free email list. You can access the overtimes, transcripts, and rundowns to our full episodes through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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Christopher Cole | The Hundred Year Portfolio: How to Grow & Protect Generational Wealth
10 februari 2020 · 55 min
In Episode 122 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Christopher Cole, the founder of Artemis Capital Management about how to grow and protect generational wealth that lasts a hundred years. Imagine you have the opportunity to grant your family great wealth and prosperity for 100 years. The opportunity is subject to one final choice. You must decide what assets to invest in and maintain that allocation for an entire century without ever changing it. The future of your children's children depends on your decision. What do you do? Lees meer
According to Christopher Cole, in order to be successful the hundred year portfolio must be able to navigate the secular booms of the market (1947-1963,1984-2007) while not losing capital during periods of economic contraction, stagnation, and renewal (1929-1946, 1964-1983). In pursuit of this, many investors assemble a varied portfolio of asset classes thinking there is safety in diversification, but in a crisis, such portfolios often collapse right along with the broader markets. Another class of investors believes they can always time the wild cycles of risk when, in fact, they can barely manage the demons of their greed and fear. The greatest threat to a hundred years of prosperity, according to Chris Cole, is neglecting the lessons from long-term financial history and having no true diversification against secular change. Accordingly, the solution is to find assets that can perform when stocks and bonds don't and boldly size them in one's portfolio regardless of short term performance. Long Volatility, Gold, Commodity Trend, and Discretionary Global Macro, according to Mr. Cole, should be core portfolio holdings and not just periphery investments. The investor can then apply margin to the risk-balanced portfolio to meet return targets, rather than seek the excess return from components.
The first part of today's conversation explores the investing landscape in which retail investors and professional money managers alike find …
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Homo Sovieticus and the Wily Man: Truth, Ambition, & Compromise in Putin's Russia | Joshua Yaffa
3 februari 2020 · 1 uur 4 min
In Episode 121, of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joshua Yaffa, a Moscow correspondent for The New Yorker about what life is like in Putin's Russia. Yaffa's latest book on the subject is a fascinating inquiry into the Soviet and post-Soviet personality type that sustains the state's power and Vladimir Putin's place atop it. Lees meer
Joshua Yaffa's new book is titled, "Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition, and Compromise in Putin's Russia." It's a book about life in modern Russia that pulls both from the country's history, as well as from a large body of sociological research into the Soviet and post-Soviet personality type whose "habits, inclinations, and internal moral calculations," according to Joshua "elevated Vladimir Putin to his current position and which now perform the small, daily work that, in aggregate, keeps him there."
This conversation is one of the more nuanced you are bound to hear on the subject of Russia, Putin, and Russian propaganda in American media. Yaffa speaks critically, but honestly, about a country that features prominently in American politics today. Demetri also shares insights from his own experience working at the Russian state media outlet RT (Russia Today).
For Patreon subscribers, this week's rundown covers not only the subject of Demetri's conversation with Joshua, but much of Yaffa's book as well. You can access that rundown, the overtime segment, as well as a transcript to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page.
All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
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How to End the New Class War and Save Democracy From the Managerial Elite | Michael Lind
27 januari 2020 · 1 uur 6 min
In Episode 120 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Lind, a highly accomplished intellectual, writer, and academic about his latest book "The New Class War." Lees meer
According to Michael Lind, the animating force behind the new class war is not income or wealth inequality but power. The old spectrum of left and right has given way to a new dichotomy in politics among insiders and outsiders, the former of which wield social power in three realms—government, economy, and culture. Each of these realms is the site of the new class war punctuated by periods of intense conflict and contained by periods of interclass compromise. Michael Lind's overall argument is that "only power can check power." Absent a compromise between the classes there are only two possible outcomes: 1) The domination of the working class by a neoliberal, technocratic elite or 2) the triumph of the working class over the elite by way of reliance on populist demagoguery (e.g. William Jennings Bryan, Donald Trump, etc.). According to Lind, the technocratic neoliberal revolution from above, carried out in one Western nation after another by members of the ever more aggressive and powerful managerial elite, has provoked a populist backlash from below by the defensive and disempowered native working class, many of whom are nonwhite. Large numbers of alienated working-class voters, realizing that the political systems of their nations are rigged and that mainstream parties will continue to ignore their interests and values, have found sometimes unlikely champions in demagogic populists like Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Marine Le Pen, and Matteo Salvini. Michael Lind's stated purpose in "The New Class War" is not to defend populist demagoguery, but rather to diagnose it and provide his readers with a cure: democratic pluralism: "Contemporary populism is a kind of convulsive autoimmune response by the body politic to the chronic degenerative disease of oligarchy. Demagogic populism …
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Sean Carroll | Why Almost No One Understands Quantum Mechanics and Other Problems in Physics & Philosophy
20 januari 2020 · 57 min
In Episode 119 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Sean Carroll, a best-selling author and research professor of theoretical physics at the California Institute of Technology. His research has focused on fundamental physics and cosmology, especially issues of dark matter, dark energy, spacetime symmetries, and the origin of the universe. Recently, Dr. Carroll has worked on the foundations of quantum mechanics, the emergence of spacetime, and the evolution of entropy and complexity. Lees meer
Our focus today is on the subject of Sean Carroll's latest book "Something Deeply Hidden: Quantum Worlds and the Emergence of Space-time." The conversation jumps around quite a bit, and much of the discussion bends towards the philosophical. Demetri and Dr. Carroll discuss ontological questions dealing with the nature of reality and the possible limitations of science as an epistemological tool for making definitive statements about our own conscious experience. They also delve into some of the core theoretical aspects of quantum mechanics like the measurement problem, Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, entanglement, and nonlocality. Sean Carroll also explains some of the various interpretations of quantum theory such as the Copenhagen interpretation, Many Worlds, Be Broglie–Bohm, Spontaneous Collapse, and QBism.
For subscribers to our Hidden Forces Overtime feed, Demetri and Sean spend the balance of their time discussing more off-the-wall subjects such as the impact of quantum mechanics in culture, the fascination with time travel, challenges for artificial general intelligence, the prospect of aliens, and the implications of flat earth theory.
You can access the show overtime, along with the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also get their own exclusive Overtime RSS feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nic…
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Jim Grant | What's the Price of Mispricing Risk? Interest Rates, Repo Markets, and an Activist Fed
13 januari 2020 · 50 min
In Episode 118 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of the financial markets. Lees meer
Born in New York City and raised on Long Island, Jim had thoughts, first, of a career in music, not interest rates—french horn was his love. But he threw it over to enter the Navy. Following his stint in the Navy, Jim enrolled Indiana University where he studied economics under Scott Gordon and Elmus Wicker and diplomatic history under Robert H. Ferrell, and later, obtained a master's degree in international affairs under the guiding tutelage of cultural historian, critic and public intellectual Jacques Barzun.
In 1972, at the age of 26, Grant began working as a cub reporter at the Baltimore Sun, moving to Barron's in 1975. The late 1970s were years of inflation, monetary disorder and upheaval in the interest-rate markets—as Jim Grant says, "of journalistic opportunity." Barron's editor Robert M. Bleiberg, tapped Grant to originate a column devoted to interest rates. This weekly department, called "Current Yield," he wrote until the time he left to found the eponymous "Interest Rate Observer" in the summer of 1983.
During his long career, Jim Grant has written a series of books including three financial histories, a pair of collections of Grant's articles and four biographies, the most recent of which is about the life and times of Walter Bagehot, whose ideas about central banking informed the U.S. Federal Reserve's response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09.
This conversation is unusually convivial, even by the normal standards. Demetri and Jim discuss actions by the Federal Reserve in the repo market (including official and unofficial explanations for the turmoil seen in mid-September 2019), the recent WeWork and SoftBank debacle, a possible bubble in the leveraged loan market, and much more.
During the overtime to this week's episode, Jim shares information about how he invests his own m…
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David Epstein | Range: Why Generalists Triumph in Today's Specialized World
6 januari 2020 · 1 uur 4 min
In Episode 117 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with author David Epstein about what the world's most successful people have in common. He discovers that in most fields—especially those that are complex and unpredictable—generalists, not specialists, are the ones primed for success. "As computers master more of the skills once reserved for highly focused humans," says David, "people who think broadly and embrace diverse experiences and perspectives will increasingly thrive." Lees meer
David's conclusions run counter to the prevailing view among "experts" who argue that anyone who wants to develop a skill, play an instrument, or lead their field should start early, focus intensely, and rack up as many hours of deliberate practice as possible. "If you dabble or delay," they say "you'll never catch up to the people who got a head start." But a closer look at research on the world's top performers, from professional athletes to Nobel laureates, paints a very different picture. In fact, it shows that early specialization is actually the exception, not the rule.
In his research, David Epstein discovers that while generalists often do find their path late—juggling many interests rather than focusing on one—they arrive at their destination with a higher degree of "fit" after undergoing a prolonged sampling period. They're also more creative, more agile, and able to make connections their more specialized peers can't see.
In their conversation, David Epstein makes a compelling case for actively cultivating inefficiency. He explains why failing a test is the best way to learn and that frequent quitters end up with the most fulfilling careers. He gives example after example of how some of the most impactful inventors cross domains rather than deepening their knowledge in a single area. In a 21st century increasingly dominated by automation and the specter of artificial intelligence, David believes that people who think broadly and embrace diverse experiences and perspectives…