Alle afleveringen van Magic Numbers – pagina 4 van 4

#45 - Timing Your Picks

6 augustus 2022 · 1 uur 46 min

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This week we look at the art of wheeling. How to use 17lands data to reliably predict which cards you open in a draft can return to you doing the full circle. That way you can maximise your draft outcomes and create a great way to produce your own draft signal. We also look at what cards do high win rate players draft more aggressively and which ones do they actively avoid. Lees meer

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86f2CmgtusU

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#44 - Up to Speed

28 juli 2022 · 1 uur 25 min

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This week's episode is about being up to speed. Up to speed with the changes in the format. How not to fall into a trap of playing week one drafts in week 3 and how to update your format fundamentals without losing too much time on it? How to know which archetypes are more open than others at any given point in time. But that is not all. HBG is the fastest non-cube draft format in Arena history. How to deal with the speed of Mardu color combinations and how to look at the game length data through the lens of game speed? Which color combinations are fast and which ones are quite successful despite being slower? Lees meer

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://youtu.be/eXZm-deDPbs

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#43 - First look at HBG draft data

15 juli 2022 · 1 uur 52 min

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First peek into Alchemy Horizon's: Baldur's Gate Draft data. What is the big picture of the format? Its speed? Which color combination do best? Then I take a slightly deeper dive into each archetype and try to figure out which cards are stars, hidden gems and traps. NOTE: Due to release schedule, episode #42 will only be available on YouTube. Lees meer

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://youtu.be/SfPX2NPvf1A

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#41 - Ducking Around with Carl Chase

12 juli 2022 · 1 uur 32 min

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This week we dive into the personal SNC draft data of Carl Chase, AKA twoduckcubed, a prolific limited grinder and a co-host of Mystical Dispute podcast, one of the best limited podcasts in existence (seriously, give it a try). Personal data lets you look at your own strengths and shortcomings and improve based on the information you can extract and looking at one of the top players in the game and seeing where are his blind spots can be very helpful for you when you introspect your own data. We look at Carl's draft preferences, his own individual card win rates and his tendencies in mulliganning, deckbuilding etc. Even though the episode is SNC specific, many of the discussion points are universal to draft as a format altogether. Lees meer

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZatDvMf1cmU

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#40 - Archetypist, SNC edition

6 juli 2022 · 1 uur 18 min

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What builds for each draft archetype in SNC are the most successful? Which cards are essential for success and which themes win more than others? To answer those questions I look at the similarities between decks and use some fancy maths to cluster the decks together and find clusters that win more than the others. A side benefit of this episode is a tool that lets you explore each archetype and see for yourself what made each color combination tick. Feel free to explore the tool here: https://archetypist.netlify.app/ This episode would not be possible without the help of Pekka Pulli, the developer of the archetypist tool. Lees meer

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsiWMPq_Pac

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#39 - Theros Beyond Death Resurrected

22 juni 2022 · 1 uur 48 min

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Theros Beyond Death will soon be back to Premier Draft queues. What is the format about, what are the archetypes about and what does the data say about the winning strategies? Speed of the format, best cards in draft and how to avoid pitfalls of THB draft. All in a manageable 2 hour chunk. Lees meer

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWorMx1f4wo

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#38 - Best of Three

20 juni 2022 · 1 uur 12 min

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What does the data tell us about Best of Three drafts in Streets of New Capenna? Best of Three is different from Best of One in multiple aspects. There is no hand smoother, which leads to worse curve-outs, more mulliganning, which damages deck consistency. There is also sideboarding between the games, which makes some cards unplayable in BO1 valid choices for games 2 and 3 once you have seen some key cards from opponents deck. I look at, which colors do well in BO3, which cards perform differently in BO3 than in BO1 drafts. One hypothesis is that draft pods in BO3 are populated by, on average, stronger players. I test this hypothesis using the format data. I also look at mulligan stats, and at the cards that are used as sideboard cards and evaluate their utility as such. Lees meer

Reminder: This podcast is a recording of a stream, which relies heavily on graphics. Check the you tube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format.

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://youtu.be/0nFpc71hbts

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#37 - Secrets of 17Lands top users

1 juni 2022 · 1 uur 48 min

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This week I look into what makes top 17Lands.com users win more in draft than others do. From their color preferences, pick orders, which cards they prioritise, include in their decks, there are hints on what is the key to their success in draft and I try to unlock them digging through the data. Also I get attacked by my cat. Reminder: This podcast is a recording of a stream, which relies heavily on graphics. Lees meer

Check the youtube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format. https://youtu.be/jBGlI0vr3ic

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#36 - Keeping up with the Brokers

24 mei 2022 · 1 uur 8 min

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This week we look at the data related to Brokers family in SNC Drafts. Brokers (also known as Bant) and related color pairs (WUG, WU and WG) are the menace of SNC draft format, having significantly higher win rates than other color combinations. But as the colors become more contested over times, time to look at what cards in other color combinations do well against the Brokers. Which colors have higher win rate against Brokers? Which cards perform better against them? What bigger picture can we draw from this data? And why formats with very strong commons can be even more annoying than bomb laden sets. Enjoy! Reminder: This podcast is a recording of a stream, which relies heavily on graphics. Lees meer

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://youtu.be/tOBzVbYcsWA

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#35 - Reading the Signals

13 mei 2022 · 1 uur 52 min

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This episode focuses on what are draft signals and how to find the best way to read them. You will hear a lot of content creators talking about "strong signals" or "signal X is open" during draft, but what exactly are signals? I try to define exactly that and go even several steps further. I look at SNC draft data and try to figure out what is a meaningful signal during the draft. On my quest to do so, I find plenty of things that are NOT a strong signal when you look at thousands of drafts, and some of them are quite surprising (to me at least). But don't worry, eventually I get there and find a pretty good way to predict color openness during draft. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeZFlfWx_J0

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#34 - Halo World

8 mei 2022 · 1 uur 35 min

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This time we look at the new limited format of the Streets of New Capenna. Which color combinations are the most successful? Which color combinations are the most open? How to build a good mana base for the 3 color decks popular in the format? Which cards are the format all stars, and which ones over-perform in a particular color combination. All answered by exploring the data from ~23 000 drafts and nearly 150k games. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz5SQXIZoFE

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

#32 - The Skeleton Crew

22 april 2022 · 2 uur 33 min

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This week we preview the Streets of New Capenna. Traditionally before each set release we meet at SLKerstens twitch channel to discuss the format in our pre-release set review. But instead of looking at each card, we build our versions of each deck, based on pure theory crafting. This time SLKerstens, JasonILTG, Tajoordan and me talk about our hopes and expectations o the new set, cards to watch, cards that may fly under the radar for the first weeks, etc. The episode is also available on youtube and the slides can be accessed. Lees meer

See the slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/10C-DIgOxZzm6gqw7ygduUuFDfuyv-LBFz3aG3yCg_qU/edit

Watch the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CQA3_K3OjM

#31 - Why do we want to be on the play?

15 april 2022 · 51 min

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This week I look at the advantage of being on the play. Why do we win more when on the play, why starting gives you the advantage in later game and how does this advantage look like depending on the game length. Choosing to be on the play is a good heuristic, but I also look at when would it be theoretically good to choose to go second. And try to use 17Lands data to find decks that would, at least in theory, be better off going second. What types of cards are leading to those types of deck? What is the density of those types of cards that would prompt you to go second? In the end I show a simple model that lets you decide exactly that. Still in majority of cases you should chose to go first, but roughly 13% of decks are at least as good on the draw as on the play. In Best-of-3 this means you can get an extra edge as your opponent would typically choose to be on the play. This means you will always end up starting the game in a privileged position. I also look at the specific analysis of Azusa's Many Journeys, the card that inspired me to do this analysis. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fImR8FDq7BQ

#30 - Drafting the Chord way with Alex Nikolic

11 april 2022 · 2 uur 21 min

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This week I have a special guest, Alex Nikolic, AKA Chord_o_Calls. A streamer, podcaster, great limited player and, imho the best card evaluator in the game. I got all his 17Lands data, analysed them and this episode is a great reveal. I show Alex what I learned from his data, we compare self-perception to numbers, and explore the uncharted world of personal M:tG data. We look at the totality of limited data range, from color preferences before the draft starts, through 1st pick preferences, pick orders, deck staples and cards never played, up to mulliganning trends and individual card personal win rates of Alex. I had a blast and Alex was on fire, which makes for a great episode, something I will rarely say about my own creations. If you are interested in potential of personal data - this is what you were looking for. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxEhRoefHXg

#29 - I contain multitudes: Win rates and copy numbers

7 april 2022 · 1 uur 32 min

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This episode I am talking about the effect a copy number of a card has on its win rate. All based on 17Lands data for Kamigawa Neon Dynasty. Which cards are best as one-offs, which ones you want as many as you can and everything in between. But the episode is not only NEO-specific. I am trying to see which types of cards (e.g combat tricks, graveyard recursion) fall predominantly to a certain category, so that in future sets you can try and apply those findings directly, before enough data is collected. On top of that I looked at all the data related to Okiba Salvage - my pet bad card of the set. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww_6Z466lfw

#28 - NEO Forms, or how to use the Archetypist tool

30 maart 2022 · 1 uur 11 min

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This episode is all about the ecology of the deck and Archetypist: a tool developed by Pekka Pulli and me that lets you visualise deck similarity and a localised win rate of similar decks. This allows to show clusters of particularly successful builds for each archetype. I look at clusters of each each archetype and try to figure out what makes those decks tick, what is missing from the less successful builds, etc. You can explore the data yourself at https://archetypist.netlify.app/ using a simple set of parameters you can manipulate. Lees meer

#27 - Marrying Your First Pick

19 maart 2022 · 1 uur 2 min

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Today I will be looking at differences between how late you will see cards in Pack 1 and Pack 3 of the draft. We will look at the 17Lands ALSA measure to find those differences. What is ALSA you might ask? Well I will describe it in detail and even visualize it. Looking at differences between P1 and P3 may seem unnecessarily deep, but there are big differences between how we draft pack 1 and pack 3 and knowing how it works could give you a nice edge. Which cards are almost ungettable in P1 but will travel further in P3? Which cards are relatively easy to get in P1 but get trickier to get in P3? I also look at the impact of playing your first pick. Do you get a boost from playing it or not? Spoiler: the boost is tiny, which means that all the advantages of sticking to your first pick are eaten by the drawbacks of forcing the 1st pick when you should pivot. I will also look at the anatomy of draft decks. Do trophy decks differ from others in terms of playing the first picks? Maybe they play more later picks? Well, only one way to find out. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://youtube.com/watch?v=MVvuwXsNz6I

#26 - Aggro, Midrange, Control

10 maart 2022 · 1 uur 21 min

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Today I look at the early evolution of the Kamigawa draft format. How did Arena users' evaluations change over the first two weeks? What does it mean to your drafting? I also try a new method of quantifying if a deck is aggro, midrange or controlling and look at the colour combinations from that perspective to see what do they "want" to achieve. And I shed some light on the Neon Dynasty worst-kept secret. Look at that clickbait. Ok, it is about the numbers behind Kami of Terrible Secrets, I can't bait. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqjTgIhPYnc

#25 - Breaking the Sealed

5 maart 2022 · 1 uur 15 min

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This week I look at the differences between NEO Draft and Sealed - which cards do differently, which cards to consider more carefully while building your pool. Apart from that, I look at the Artifact-Enchantment spectrum within the format. What are the optimal numbers of those two types in your deck, are there any trends in relation to the number of cards of those types you play? Based on that I also look at some of the interesting cards in Kamigawa and try to provide numbers that will help you decide whether you should play them or not. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeOO8Lb8ukU

#24 - The Sagas Begin; First Dive in Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Limited Data

21 februari 2022 · 1 uur 33 min

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Today we look into the early data from Kamigawa BO1 drafts. I try to explain how Ninjas can sneakily influence win rates of other cards and how to see just how naughty they have been with the data (spoiler: the effect is not that big but can lead you to thinking some cards are a bit better than they really are). I also look at which color pairs are open and speculate a bit on which colors can improve in the future. I also talk about each color pair, their MVPs and cards that have surprisingly high win rates. As always, all the data is courtesy of 17Lands.com Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeVw5PSGO84

#23 - Kamigawa Primer: From Neon Loneliness to Motorcycle Emptiness

10 februari 2022 · 2 uur 3 min

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This episode is a primer for the new set, Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. I look at the vital statistics of the set, look at how the removal aligns with the creatures and compare it with some previous sets, to get you up to date on which conditional removal is particularly interesting and which can be potentially a dud. Then I go through all 10 archetypes, looking at cards that are key to them and trying to find some overlooked pockets of synergy and two card interactions. Lees meer

#22 - Kamigawa Neon Dynasty Limited Archetype Skeletons

10 februari 2022 · 2 uur 55 min

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A bonus episode: audio of the Kamigawa Neon Dynasty skeleton discussion between myself, SLKerstens and JasonILTG. Cards to watch, combinations to test and a good general overview of what NEO has to offer. And it seems it has to offer a lot. Lees meer

VOD of the stream can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6et5lk3Mr0&feature=youtu.be

#21 - When Two Become One

4 februari 2022 · 1 uur 36 min

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This week I look at the numbers behind Double Feature drafts on Arena based on 17Lands data. Which colour pairs do best, why splashing sometimes matters, what cards over and underperform, what are the top commons and uncommons for each colour and why. I also look at each colour pair and talk about best signpost, best cards and overachievers worth mentioning for (almost) each of them. Lees meer

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRLDgbY95RM

#20 - VOW Takes a Bow

26 januari 2022 · 48 min

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Look at the VOW draft from the perspective of the whole format and a general look at the format evolution. What are the stages of the format getting mature? How can you use data to position yourself well in a more settled format? What numbers should you be looking at and at what stage? How does card evaluation change and how does it impact color pair strength? Lees meer

See the episode slides: https://bit.ly/magicnumbers20

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5ECEW5O_pg

#19 - The Hand Smoother

19 januari 2022 · 43 min

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How does BO1 hand smoothing work? Based on +500k first hands from 17Lands.com, I could decipher what is going on. And knowing what it does and how it differs from paper/BO3 will help your deckbuilding. Lees meer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8ijQCd55hI

#18 - The Art of Forcing

10 januari 2022 · 1 uur

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I look at Evidence Based Forcing: When and how to force decks, plus how to use data to do it in an organised fashion. Drafting the hard way is hard, but actually proper forcing is not easy either. Lees meer

Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26QC8Vzgw9Y