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DHUnplugged #823: Election Infection
4 november 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
The Biggest Story of the year – The McRib lawsuit. Lees meer
Next of course we have to discuss the election.
For good measure let’ dive into the AI and Semi meltdown
A couple of important announcementsas well.
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ELECTION NIGHT IN AMERICA
Warm-Up
- WORLD PEACE - Thank you Melania !
- Big Disruptions in the Communications space
- ELECTIONS
- McRib Lawsuit Update
Markets
- Oooofah - quite the ugly moves last week - at least bonds got a big (YUGE) bid
- OIL - OMG have you seen pricing. Worst offensive move to say we won't attack until after the midterms.
- META - good earnings, but stock tumbles
- Starting to worry - Bond crisis is France could spillover
--- But encouraging that safety trade leading to bonds again
DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com
Two more important announcements !
1. NEW PODCAST - Party Line with the Dvorak Family
2. ASK ANDREW - This week's TDI Podcast - YOU GET FREE FINANCIAL ADVICE
- Send questions to Askandrew@thedisciplinedinvestor.com
ELECTION INFECTION
- Early but it looks like a blue wave - somewhat surprising
- Markets not so happy (QQQ Down 1.7%, S&P Down 0.80)
- What is going to be the fallout -> IRAN, Exec Orders, Reconciliation process?
OIL HITS $115 Last Week
- Brent touched $115, a five-month high; WTI above $100.
- Attacks on Saudi Arabia threaten regional oil supplies.
- Higher fuel and transportation costs squeeze consumers, raise inflation pressure and complicate central bank policy.
- This is not temporary at this point and the longer this goes on the more entrenched inflation becomes.
- FOLLOW UP - 7% drop Monday as President Trump says something about diplomacy
FAV STORY!
MELANIA BROKERS CEASEFIRE - WORLD PEACE? NOT QUITE
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DHUnplugged #822: Flying and Lying
21 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
AI leaves the building. Lees meer
Five days at the podium – that is it?
Tesla finally takes flight…
$500 toothbrush can’t handle water.
LESSON – DO NOT MIX YOUR POLITICS WITH MARKETS
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- AI leaves the building
- Five days at the podium
- Tesla finally takes flight
- $500 toothbrush can't handle water
- LESSON - DO NOT MIX YOUR POLITICS WITH MARKETS
Markets
- AI trade starts to crack
- Two trillion deeper in debt
- Hot inflation, cooler yields
- Earnings face the pressure test
DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com
Trump Media's fusion fizzles
- DJT shares headed toward an all-time low Friday despite its pending merger with nuclear-fusion developer TAE.
- TAE shareholders would receive Trump Media stock, leaving them exposed to the declining share price.
- Billions in Trump's paper wealth have evaporated since the company went public.
DJT Stock
INFLATION WON'T LEAVE
- September CPI rose 0.6%; annual inflation hit 3.7% versus 3.6% expected.
- Core prices rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected; annual core inflation reached 2.6%.
- Producer prices jumped 1.3%, the biggest increase since March 2022; up 6.3% annually.
- Wholesale goods prices rose 2.6%; services increased 0.8%.
TWO TRILLION SHORT
- Fiscal 2026 deficit reached $1.992 trillion, up $217 billion; third-largest on record.
- Revenue rose 3% to $5.4 trillion. Spending increased 6% to $7.4 trillion.
- Debt-service costs climbed 12% to $1.36 trillion; national debt exceeded $40 trillion.
- Tariff refunds totaled $145 billion following the Supreme Court ruling; net tariff revenue fell 11%.
BONDS FIND BUYERS
- The 10-year Treasury ended the week near 5.10%; the 30-year near 5.44%.
- The 30-year yield fell abou…
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DHUnplugged #821: Gold Standard Ahead
14 oktober 2026 · 1 uur 5 min
Andrew had the flu. Markets had their own fever. Lees meer
Earnings ahead. Credit cracking. Have yields peaked?
Oil’s shipping bill explodes. Gold standard chatter returns.
Be nice to your AI. It may bite back.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- INFLUENZA!
- Earnings Season Ahead
- Are we going back to the gold standard?
- Be Nice to Your AI - They May Bite Back....(OR COOK YOUR BUILDING)
Markets
- Yields may have just peaked...
- Oil prices may not be the end of the problem
- Cracks in credit
- Bank earnings - lots of profits to show
DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com
Cracks in Credit/Real Estate - 2 Charts
Price Reductions
Sellers and Buyers
HERE WE GO: BE NICE TO CLAUDE
- Anthropic prohibits sustained, needless cruelty toward its models; ordinary frustration, pushback and testing are exempt.
- Claude ending abusive conversations remains the main response; account restrictions or suspensions remain possible.
- The policy also removes blanket restrictions on personalized political targeting while retaining bans on deception and voter suppression.
TANKER MAYHEM
- US-to-China tanker hire: about $80 million, versus $74 million for a Falcon 9 launch.
- One US booking reached $41 per barrel in freight, versus $4.50 last year.
- Hormuz shuttle transfers, damaged ships and Africa detours are tying up the fleet.
- Inflation-adjusted tanker rates are the highest since the 1960s, squeezing refinery margins and raising delivered oil costs.
FRANCE SHAKES THE EURO
- France's borrowing premium over Germany reached its highest since the eurozone debt crisis; the euro hit a 17-month low.
- Heavy government spending and political obstacles to fiscal repair are pushing investors toward safer German an…
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DHUnplugged #820: Gullible Markets
30 september 2026 · 1 uur 1 min
Howie Mandel Negotiations with Iran….Deal or No Deal? Lees meer
Robot Soldiers – new and exciting.
30-Year Bond Mayhem and gullible markets.
So much economic news coming up – let’s dig in.
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Warm-Up
- Closest to The Pin???????????
- Howie Mandel Negotiations with Iran....Deal or No Deal?
- Robot Soldiers - new and exciting
Markets
- 30-Year Bond Mayhem! Alliteration or Tautogram?
- This week in Economics - plenty to come
- What is wrong with Nike?
- How gullible can markets be?
DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com
GAME: IS IT AN ALLITERATION OR TAUTOGRAM
----- Alliteration: The repetition of the same initial sound in neighboring words (for example, "big bad bears").
-------Tautogram: A strict form of alliteration where all words in a phrase or sentence begin with the identical letter
- Which is it? ::: Bessent's Big Bond Blunder Backfired!
How about this? Brash Billionaire Bessent’s Botched Big Bond Blunder Backfired Bitterly!
THIS WEEK IN ECONOMIC NEWS...............
TUESDAY - THE CONSUMER AND JOB OPENINGS
- Consumer confidence and August job openings arrive at 10 AM ET.
- Watch whether households are getting more worried about prices and whether employers are still hiring.
WEDNESDAY - INFLATION AND SPENDING
- August PCE inflation, personal income and spending arrive at 8:30 AM ET, alongside updated second-quarter GDP figures.
- The key question: is spending holding up while inflation stays elevated?
THURSDAY - FACTORY CHECK
- September ISM manufacturing arrives at 10 AM ET. Watch new orders, employment and prices paid for signs that growth and inflation are pulling in different directions.
FRIDAY - THE BIG ONE
- September payrolls, unemployment and wages arrive …
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DHUnplugged #819: Counterfactualzzzz
23 september 2026 · 1 uur 6 min
Maybe people are just unhappy – says Goldman. Lees meer
Counterfactualzzzz – that is why bonds are still up.
Are we getting $5,000?
Bitcoin is running again.
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Warm-Up
- Greenland (Renamed Red White and Blue Land?)
- Consumers and People are JUST UNHAPPY
- No more press coverage? Maybe people are unhappy (see above) because of all of the shenanigans going on.
---- Maybe we will all be happier without all of the White House coverage
Markets
- New Highs - NASDAQ 100 moving up with risk assets. (Breath poor though)
--- Close enough to end of month, quarter to be window dressing
---- Buy Yom Kippur!!!
- 10YR Treasury at 5% again - wait until you hear Bessent's victory speech
DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com
MARKET MOVE
- On the heels of SoftBank Group Corp. seeking the equivalent of more than $11 billion in a junk bond deal to fund investments in ChatGPT creator OpenAI.
- The company is looking to issue $10 billion of dollar securities and €1 billion of euro debt to fund a follow-on investment in OpenAI expected to close next month.
- SoftBank and its lead banks are sounding out investors on potential pricing for the proposed junk bond offering, with yields that would be records for SoftBank in those specific currencies and tenors if priced at those levels.
- Could it be that simple why NAZ 100 is at new highs?
BESSENT'S "COUNTERFACTUAL" DEFENSE
- This is darling...
- Rep. Jim Himes questioned Bessent on September 15 at a House Financial Services Committee hearing.
- Himes: "The 10-year went up by 20 basis points. How can you say it was successful?"
- Bessent: "Well, there is a counterfactual of what would it have done."
- Bessent added: "We then proceeded to have the…
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DHunplugged #818: Cyberdyne IRL
16 september 2026 · 1 uur 3 min
It’s the end of the world and we know it… Lees meer
CPI numbers – HOT – Markets think hit a top – or just options Friday?
Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur?
Plenty of AI
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Warm-Up
- Follow Up - I am the House! - 10YR shot above 5% on Monday
- Follow Up 2 - Straight of Hormuz - NO Boats passing (can we please stick to the facts?)
- CPI numbers - HOT - Markets think hit a top
- Let's talk end of the works - Cyberdyne IRL
Markets
- 100% Probability of a rate hike this week
- Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur
- HACK ETF - Cybersecurity name up 49% YTD
DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com
FED HIKE IS BACK
- Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% now the dominant expectation.
- 85% of economists surveyed expect a hike; futures moved to roughly 90% odds after the latest inflation data.
- August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually.
- Markets are increasingly pricing additional tightening beyond September rather than this being a one-and-done move.
AND -> THE 5% TREASURY IS BACK
- The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% Monday for the first time since 2023.
- Higher oil prices, hotter inflation, heavy bond supply and expectations for more Fed tightening are all pushing yields higher.
- The move raises the hurdle rate for stocks while feeding directly into mortgages, corporate borrowing and other credit.
- Bonds are becoming meaningful competition for equities again at a time when stock valuations remain elevated.
SLOW DOWN THE AI
- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for deliberately slowing frontier-model advancement to create more time for safety controls.
- Sam Altman and Elon …
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DHUnplugged #817: I am The House
9 september 2026 · 1 uur 7 min
I am the House! Bessent on Yen and other matters (he has inside information). Lees meer
Straight of Hormuz – There is no movement people.
CPI coming Friday – many say ultimate Fed test.
Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- I am the House! Bessent tonight on Yen and other matters (he has inside information)
- Straight of Hormuz - There is no movement people
- CPI coming Friday - many say ultimate Fed test
- Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles
Markets
- Chips up, making up for some time
- Oil UP! and UP!
- Yields keep climbing
DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com
BOND YIELDS KEEP CLIMBING
- Japan now has a 3% 10-year yield while carrying government debt above 200% of GDP.
- Higher Japanese yields also create an incentive for domestic investors to bring money home rather than reaching overseas for returns.
- The broader bond selloff is hitting the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan at the same time.
FED HIKE ODDS RISE
- Warsh said the Fed still has “work to do” if officials are not confident inflation is returning to 2%.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller has left open the possibility of holding rates steady if inflation cools.
- The September decision is increasingly being dictated by incoming inflation data and oil.
- It is kinda funny.... The “data-dependent Fed” is now apparently oil-dependent, jobs-dependent and whatever-CPI-says-next-week-dependent.
OIL KEEPS PRESSURE ON INFLATION
- Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil higher and revived fears about supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Strait remains one of the most important chokepoints for global energy flows.
- Oil is working directly against central banks trying to bring inflation back toward target.
- Basically, c…
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DHUnplugged #816: Strikes, Spikes, Hikes
2 september 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
September – here we are and the volatility starts. Lees meer
Bear Invasions – is this something we should pay attention to?
Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too.
Bombing Iran again.
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Warm-Up
- September - here we are and the volatility starts
- Bear Invasions - is this something we should pay attention to?
- Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too
- Bombing Iran again - and again.
Markets
- Bonds - moving higher - Warsh and Bessent challenged
- NVDA earnings - price hikes
- Employment Report coming this Friday
- Dell earnings - WOWWWW!
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LAKE AMERICA
- Google Maps now shows "Lake America" to U.S. users after the federal naming change.
- Canadian users still see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere see both names.
- Canada did not adopt the change, setting up an easy cross-border naming fight.
OIL / IRAN
- Last week - Oil dropped more than 3% as traders viewed tougher Iran sanctions as less disruptive than renewed military escalation.
- Brent fell to roughly $88.58 and WTI to about $82.36.
- Washington stopped short of immediately targeting major Chinese banks buying Iranian oil.
- Markets also reacted to hopes for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
---- OH WAIT>>>>
IRAN - FIGHT IS ON
- We are back bombing and they are retaliating
- We retaliate, they bomb
- Threat: President Trump in phone interview with Fox News reporter repeats that if Iran retaliates, they will be hit harder, but he adds that if Iran retaliates for a third time "they will be totally wiped out as a country"; says any deal with Iran will not be "worth the paper it is printed on"
- Oil Up ...
DICK'S / FOOT LOCKER
- Dick's shares plunged about 30% …
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DHUnplugged #815: Stupid Does Stupid
26 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Things are getting weird – looks like someone is panicking. Lees meer
The Dumber side of finance – let’s dig in.
A big week ahead – major earnings could move markets.
– Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD.
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Warm-Up
- Things are getting weird - looks like someone is panicking
- The Dumber side of finance - let's dig in (5 top items)
- Cold War and Hot War - Canada, China and Iran
- Economic "D" day - no one cares
- Saying goodbye to Dolly Parton
Markets
- Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD
- Oil starting to settle
- Big Week - NVDA earnings on tap - all eyes!
STUPID IS WHAT STUPID DOES - A DHU One-Time Series On The Dumber Side of Finance
1) LOWER BEEF PRICES
- Trump plans temporary tariff relief for certain ground-beef imports as U.S. beef prices remain near record highs.
- The plan would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of discounted imported ground beef over roughly 90 days.
- Supposedly this will reduce the prices for consumers
- Ranchers and several farm-state Republicans are pushing back, arguing cheaper imports could hurt domestic producers.
---- Question: Tariff reduction is going to reduce prices for consumers? Didn't someone say that tariffs are paid by the companies and exporting countries???
2) IRAN SANCTIONS - BIG THREAT, LIMITED IMMEDIATE ACTION
- Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran that they could face secondary sanctions, calling it an "economic D-Day."
- New sanctions hit about 60 individuals, companies and vessels, but major Chinese financial institutions were not targeted.
- China remains the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, making Chinese banks the potential pressure point.
- Treasury says sanctions could expand into gold, digital assets, av…
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DHUnplugged #814: The Doldrums
19 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 5 min
Oil Reserves taking a hit. Lees meer
Finally getting to the recent high profile earnings.
Market Top Calls (again).
ALL TIME HIGHS – Then some consolidation (then highs again).
Situational Awareness Update.
SpaceX Bounces…
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Warm-Up
- Oil Reserves taking a hit
- Getting to the recent high profile earnings
- Market Top Calls (again)
Markets
- ALL TIME HIGHS - Then some consolidation
- Lets round out earnings
- Situational Awareness Update
- SpaceX Bounces...
Etsy - Layoffs With Better Numbers
- Etsy is cutting about 220 jobs, or 12% of its workforce.
- Management said the cuts were not primarily about cost savings or AI.
----- CEO Kruti Patel Goyal stated the restructuring aims to simplify the organization, remove management layers, and speed up decision-making to better compete against massive rivals like Amazon, Temu, and TikTok Shop
- Q2 revenue was about $668 million and core marketplace sales improved.
- Etsy also authorized another $2 billion share buyback.
- Comes after selling Depop to eBay for about $1.4 billion.
Polysilicon - Tariffs Plus Price Floors
- U.S. policy adds a 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon and solar products.
- Goal is to protect domestic production from low-cost foreign competition.
- U.S. share of global polysilicon capacity fell from about 50% in 2005 to under 2% in 2024.
- First Solar and T1 Energy jumped on the announcement.
---- The same playbook - rinse and repeat
Chipotle - Salmonella Returns
- Minnesota officials linked a salmonella outbreak to jalapenos served at Chipotle.
- Chipotle removed the affected pepper supply and switched growers.
- Shares fell roughly 8%-10% as investors remembered the company…
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DHUnplugged #813: Fear and Greed
12 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 5 min
Beluister deze afleveringNEW HIGHS!!! Shaking off the bad stuff. Lees meer
In the midst of earnings season - peak was last week.
Let's Look at the Fear and Greed Index.
Unemployment numbers are out (Something for everyone)
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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
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Warm-Up
- Let's Look at the Fear and Greed Index
- Unemployment numbers are out (Something for everyone)
- CPI Data out tomorrow then PPI ThursdayMarkets
- NEW HIGHS!!! Shaking off the bad stuff
- In the midst of earnings season - peak was last week
- OIL - Rebounding on NO DEAL (what a surprise)NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up - Follow Up (8-8-2026)
Starting off with Fear and Greed
- Check this out: FEAR AND GREED INDICATORCPI Thoughts
- July CPI is expected to ease to 3.4% from a year earlier, with core inflation forecast near 2.5%.
- The probability of a September Fed rate increase has moved back toward 48% as oil rebounded and several policymakers continued to emphasize inflation risks.
- A soft reading would support bonds, technology and precious metals. A hot reading would revive stagflation concerns by combining weaker hiring with renewed price pressure.Tariffs Return Under New Authority
- New tariffs of 10% to 12.5% cover imports from 60 trading partners.
- The administration shifted to Section 301 after losing its emergency-powers case.
- Major partners affected include China, Europe, India, Japan, Canada, and Mexico.
- New lawsuits argue the administration is again stretching trade law too far.
- 25 S… -
DHUnplugged #812: Rollercoaster Ride
5 augustus 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Beluister deze aflevering- OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves. Lees meer
- Hackathon disguised.
- KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios.
- Oil moved up on War - now no War again...
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Warm-Up
- Some bad days and some good days
- AH is walking - and driving
- We have to talk about Free Cash Flow changesNO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM)
- Location to be determined
- SIGN UP HERE
Meet-Up InviteMarkets
- OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves.
- META too
- KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios
- Oil moved up on War - now no War againDO WE TALK ABOUT MORE AI HACKING
- Latest stories of even more AI breach of containment
- Is this really just a plan to gain regulation (to limit competition?)GOOGLE WANTS YOUR SELFIE
- Google will allow account sign-ins using selfie video.
- The feature adds another way to verify identity.
- It could reduce dependence on passwords and recovery codes.
- The tradeoff is greater use of facial data.
- Privacy, storage and security questions will follow.SPACEX SHORT SELLERS CASH IN
- Short sellers reportedly earned $15.5 billion as SpaceX shares fell.
- The move rewarded investors betting against the company's valuation.
- It shows how quickly enthusiasm can reverse at extreme prices.
- SpaceX still has strong growth stories in launches and satellites.
- The debate is whether too much future success was already priced in.
--- Price hit $108 t… -
DHUnplugged #811: Remembering JCD
29 juli 2026 · 1 uur 5 min
Beluister deze afleveringSaying goodbye to JCD. Lees meer
Andrew's Tribute.
Growing up Dvorak with JC.
Plenty of financial news to discuss.
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Warm-Up
- JCD - Through Our Eyes
- Andrew's Tribute
- No Agenda/DHU Meet Up - 8-8 at 3:33 PM in Ft Lauderdale...
- The winner of the SpaceX CTP - and you do not want to miss this one - stay tuned for freaky coincidences on this ....NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM)
- Location to be determined
- SIGN UP HERE
Meet-Up InviteMarkets
-Back to SpaceX - What a rug pull! (down $1.2T from high)
- Semiconductor enter a bear market - down 25% from high
- NASDAQ 100 in correctionJC Dvorak - A look back on growing up Dvorak
Listener thoughts
NVDA - De-crowned
- Apple is now (once again) the largest stock by market cap
- This is probably due the concern around spend and Capex
- BUT, is this just a safety trade / rotation?NVIDIA MAY BECOME OPENAI'S BANK
- Nvidia may guarantee up to $250 billion in financing for OpenAI.
- The proposed Ohio data-center project could cost more than $500 billion.
- Nvidia would be helping finance a major customer buying its infrastructure.
- The structure raises concerns about circular AI demand.
- Nvidia shares fell about 5% as investors weighed the risks.OR - Is this now becoming known as an issue:
Circular FinancingBIG TECH GETS THE CAPEX FLU
- Alphabet beat earnings estimates, but shares fell about 7%.
- Management raised 2026 capital spen… -
DHUnplugged #810: Big Blew Up
15 juli 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Beluister deze afleveringSpaceX - Price almost $135 - full retracement. Lees meer
Earnings season in on - here we go!
Inflation - choppy.
War back on! Straits Open? Or?
New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS
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Warm-Up
- CTP for SpaceX - Price almost hit $135 yesterday
- Earnings season 0 here we go!
- Inflation - choppy
- War back on! Straits Open? Or?
New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASISMarkets
- Inflation - Some Relief
- IBM's Pre-Annnouncment - What does this say?
- Bank earnings and an earnings cheat sheet
- Some interesting chart dataHealth Update: Meniscus Repair next Thursday....
Today IBM stood for 'I Be Melting' as Big Blue turned into Big Blew Up...
IBM: It's Been Murdered
IBM: I Bought Misery
IBM: Investment Board Malfunction
Big Blue looked more like Deep Red today
The only cloud around IBM today was hanging over the stock chart
IBM investors got a free software update: Version 2.0 of disappointment.IBM'S AI FACE-PLANT
- IBM shares plunged as much as 25%, putting the stock on pace for its worst session on record.
- Preliminary revenue was $17.2 billion versus expectations near $17.9 billion.
- Adjusted earnings were projected at $2.93 per share versus roughly $3.01 expected.
- Management said customers redirected spending toward AI servers, memory and hardware while delaying software purchases.
- The drop removed roughly 375 points from the price-weighted DJIA.
- JCD and AH were both right and wrong for the weekly stock picksTRUTH?
- President… -
DHunplugged #809: He’s Selling Bitcoin!
8 juli 2026 · 1 uur 3 min
Beluister deze afleveringStarting off July on a Wobble Lees meer
SpaceX added to NAZ100
Oil prices drifting lower - Gas at the pump?
JOBS Number - Odd Move
Saylor is selling Bitcoin!
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Warm-Up
- JOBS Number - Odd Move
- Saylor is selling Bitcoin!
- VEGGIE ALERT!
- US RESUMES POWERFUL STRIKES ON IRAN (Is this still a ceasefire?)Markets
- Starting off July on a Wobble
- SpaceX added to NAZ100
- Oil prices drifting lower - Gas at the pump?
- Oracle - Canary?World Cup?
- USA is out... (Bad goalie move last night)IRAN
- Looks like war is back on - at least for tonight
- Oil rises about 3% on the news
- US revokes Iran's ability to sell oil around the world
- Markets don't seem overly concerned - VIX still low at 16
- Odds that this will be more than a quick in and out?
--- Could it be that Iran was waiting until after the Funeral?JOBS COOL, FED STILL HOT
- June payrolls came in at +57,000, well under the +110,000 estimate.
- April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs.
- Unemployment slipped to 4.2%, but not for the best reason: the labor force shrank by 720,000 people.
- Labor-force participation fell to 61.5%, the lowest in more than five years.
- Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs, a notable hit to the consumer-service economy.
- Average hourly earnings rose $0.13 in June.
- Fed setup: weaker hiring argues for patience, but inflation is still above target, so the market is back to parsing every Fed sentence.
- - … -
DHUnplugged #808: Bulls in a Bubble Shop
1 juli 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Beluister deze afleveringHappy 250th! Lees meer
The bulls are bubbling up!
Yentervention - it is a thing.
Labor market predictions.
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Warm-Up
- 250 Years!
- We have the scorecard
- Bulls are on the loose!
- Kevin Hassett - what a putz
- RAM JOB!Markets
- Google's first day in the DJIA - a good one
- SpaceX bonds already losing
-Yen slips to 1986 levels - Yentervention?WHAT A PUTZ!
- Trump Accounts launch July 4, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to ring the opening bell from the Oval Office.
- Program gives a $1,000 Treasury-funded investment account to U.S. children born from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2028.
- Kids under 18 can have accounts, but only newborns in that four-year window get the federal seed money.
- Parents, family, employers, nonprofits, and governments can add money, with a general $5,000 annual contribution cap.
- Money is invested in index funds and generally locked up until the child reaches adulthood.
- Kevin Hassett pitched it as a way to teach kids about markets, ownership, saving, and compounding. His argument is that the more young people get exposed to investing early, and market ownership becomes less of an upper-income club.
- However - > the government is handing out taxpayer-funded brokerage seed money while selling it as capitalism.
- Also odd: the benefit may skew toward families who already know how to file forms, open accounts, and add more money.
- So basically it is a forced financial-literacy … -
DHUnplugged #807: MahJong and Markets
24 juni 2026 · 1 uur 5 min
Beluister deze afleveringAnnouncing the CTP for SpaceX. Lees meer
MahJong Craze gone wild.
Goodbye to Alan Greenspan - The Maestro.
Have you seen RAM prices?
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Warm-Up
- Announcing the CTP for SpaceX
- MahJong Craze
- Goodbye to Alan Greenspan - The Maestro
- Have you seen RAM prices?Markets
- Economic Collapse Imminent?
- Breathe is narrowing again - chips chips chips are the only play
- Spacex coming back down to earth? What is that sucking sound?
-- Markets getting weird..... 3% down for NASDAQ 100 today - 8% for SMH and 14% for Memory ETF
- Just announced - Alphabet (Google) will replace Verizon in DJIADEDICATION: Alan Greenspan - Died Monday at age 100
Google Enters DJIA
- High priced shares
- Moves tech to 22% of DJIA from 17% or so - very meaningful move
- Every $1 move for Google = $7 move on DJIA
- Tech: S&P 500 (~30%+), Nasdaq (~50%+)Computer Pricing
- What as $2,000 a year ago for a nice desktop is not like $4,000
- Dell not holding pricing quotes - and even if they do, back ordered so prices could go up after order
- Will IPOs put more money in the pocket of tech companies to buy gear at any price?Endless
- SpaceX recently finalized two massive, multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence contracts: a $6.3 billion computing power agreement with Reflection AI and a $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor.
- AI Compute Deal with Reflection AI
- - - - The Terms: Reflection AI agreed to pay SpaceXAI $150 mi… -
DHUnplugged #806: Buy the Rumor and The News
17 juni 2026 · 1 uur 1 min
Beluister deze afleveringLet's Make a Deal! Lees meer
News Dominated by ... SpaceX
This week - Fed rate Decision
Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)
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Warm-Up
- Let's Make a Deal!
- News Dominated by ... SpaceX
- This week - Fed rate Decision
- Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)Markets
- Another V Formation - Nearing Highs again
- IPO Madness - Anthropic and OpenAi
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roofDEDICATION: Stu Schifter - my good friend of 30 years passed away last night... battled Cancer for 2 years.
Market Valuations
- S&P 500 Forward P/E = 22.5
- 10-yr average = 19–20x
- Long-term average 18-19
- Not cheap, pricing in a lot of earnings growth.- NASDAQ 100 forward P/E = 23-24
- 1-yr average ~23x
- 20-yr average ~20–21x
- Not screaming expensive on a forward basis
- - NOTE: Training P/E = 33-40NEW Playbook
- But the Rumor and Buy the News
- used to be Buy the Rumor and Sell the News
- This is why there is an announcement about something and then a date to follow....
- Monday = Deal, Friday = signingOn that note
- What is the deal anyway?
- Seems that we (USA) moving out our navy before the final
- Straights of Hormuz opening -??
- Has anyone seen the text?
- We are no better than we were before all this started...Headline Nonsense
- Fox Business: Beware the ticking time bomb hiding in your 401(k)
- Required minimum distributions can trigger taxes on Social Security benefits and boost Medicare premiums
- Th… -
DHUnplugged #805: Space Race
3 juni 2026 · 1 uur 2 min
Beluister deze afleveringAnother good month - investors are giddy. Lees meer
Oil - CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball).
Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control.
A major name says they are reducing stocks - but are they really?
Announcing the Winner of the CTP for Salesforce (CRM).
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Warm-Up
- Another good month - investors are giddy
- Oil - CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball)
- Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control
- A major name says they are reducing stocks - but are they really?
- Announcing the Winner of the CTP for SalesforceMarkets
- Huge reversal in Software stocks
- A few names on the move - and moving BIG!
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roofPizza Mouth !
Reversal
- Software stocks bounced this week on strong results from Snowflake and Okta, which both recorded their best days on record.
- The results signal that investors may have been too quick to declare the end of software with the emergence of artificial intelligence.
- Even as AI displaces certain tools and job functions, many software companies continue to show growth, assisted by their own AI products.
- The iShares Expanded Tech-Software exchange-traded fund rose 8% this week and closed May up 21%, the best monthly performance for the ETF since October 2001.
- With this month’s rally, the iShares software ETF is only down 3.8% for the year, still badly trailing the Nasdaq, which has gained 18% in … -
DHUnplugged #804: Circular Bio-Economy
27 mei 2026 · 1 uur 8 min
Beluister deze afleveringOil Drops - Still highest cost for Memorial Day in years Lees meer
Consumer Sentiment Drops again
New Fertilizer coming - Kinda Soilent Green vibe
Everyone is talking about SpaceX
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Warm-Up
- Oil Drops - Still highest cost for Memorial Day in years
- Consumer Sentiment Drops again
- New Fertilizer coming - Kinda Soilent Green Concept
- Everyone is talking about SpaceXMarkets
- Nothing Really Matters - Anyone can see - New HIGHS
- Governments picking the winners again
- CHIPS !
- ConcentrationNVDA
- Over the weekend, Jensen Huang said that his forecast of a $200 billion market for CPUs includes China, signalling Nvidia still sees significant long-term demand in the market amid ongoing U.S.-China technology tensions.
- During an earnings call on Wednesday, Huang said Nvidia's new "Vera" central processors give it access to a new $200 billion market.
- So, once again the PR machine is running overtime to make sure there is no reason for anyone to sell the stock - needed to make this clarification over the weekend
- Nvidia has received licenses from the U.S. government to sell its H200 chips but has not received approval from Chinese officials who are fostering China's own chip suppliers.Consumers
- Consumer sentiment has tumbled to a fresh record low in May as fears of higher prices grow due to the U.S.-Iran war and elevated oil prices, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said Friday.
- The index o… -
DHUnplugged #803: The Thucydides Trap
20 mei 2026 · 55 min
Beluister deze aflevering- Happy Memorial Day Lees meer
- A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh - good luck fella, you are going to need it sir.
- The new transient inflation.
- Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs...
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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
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Warm-Up
- Happy Memorial Day
- A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh - good luck fella, you are going to need it
- The new transient inflation
- Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs...Markets
- Starting to come in a bit.....
- Yield curve steepening - potential for a hike over cuts
- YIELDS!
- Fuels running low - we have the listOH MY...
- The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to around 5.14%, putting it at its highest level since the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis
- Bets are pricing in the increasingly possibility of it reaching 5.5% to 6%, which would mark the highest levels since late 1999
- 30-Year mortgage near 6.35% (average) - DOWN from 6.91% at start of 2026
30-Year Yield
Bored of Boards
- The Board of Peace - remember that one? That was established in 2025 with 15+ countries that pitched in $1 billion for permanent seat
- Indefinitely chaired by President Trump, the governing board is a mix of U.S. officials and prominent American businessmen.
- So much for the peace part of that....
- Now we hear about the Board of Investment
---The US and China are discussing a mechanism for fast-tracking some Chinese investment deals and a reduction in tariffs on non-critical goods.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned a "Board of Investment" that will be responsible for investment in non-sensitive areas.
- The idea of the "Board of Investment" is to have a mechanism that could allow deals that wouldn’t need to be referred to the Committee on Foreig… -
DHUnplugged #802: UBI Begins
13 mei 2026 · 1 uur 3 min
Beluister deze afleveringA torn Meniscus - that is what they say... now what? Lees meer
The beginning of UBI as a response from the AI boom?
Black in packaging - byproduct of war
Markets - - Up up and away!
- New inflation data is in...
- The Circular Economy - Great chart....
- Some inflation factsPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
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Warm-Up
- Torn Meniscus - that is what they say... now what?
- The beginning of UBI as a response from the AI boom?
- Black in packaging - byproduct of war
- Insights into consumer confidence reportsMarkets
- Up up and away!
- New inflation data is in...
- The Circular Economy - Great chart....
- Some inflation facts
- From the TACO trade to the NACHO tradeThe new CTP for Salesforce is open for entries!
From TACO to NACHO
- Not A Chance Hormuz Opens
- - New phrase being used in the oil pits and trading floorsLife Support
- President Trump tells reporters that ceasefire with Iran is on "massive life support"; says Iran's peace proposal was a "piece of garbage"Going to CHYNA
- President Donald Trump has invited executives from some of the biggest U.S. companies — including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg — to join his trip to China this week, according to a White House official.
- Also expected to join Trump’s delegation for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping are Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, Cargill’s Brian Sikes, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser, Coherent’s Jim Anderson, GE Aerospace’s H. Lawrence Culp Jr., Goldman Sachs’s David Solomon, Illumina’s Jacob Thaysen, Mastercard’s Michael Miebach, Meta Platforms executive Dina Powell McCormick, Micron Technology’s Sanjay Mehrotra, Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon and Visa’s Ryan McInerney, the offic… -
DHUnplugged #801: Robot Takeover Begins
6 mei 2026 · 1 uur 6 min
Beluister deze afleveringGood overall earnings season - still going strong Lees meer
Economic reports show a mixed picture - but still good enough
Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam
Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines
Markets
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Warm-Up
- Good overall earnings season - still going strong
- Economic reports show a mixed picture - but still good enough
- Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam
- Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines
- EGGS - Breaking News!Markets
- Are markets riding tariff refund wave?
- Oil shoots up then slips back after Iran tensions rise and fall
- New Highs - NAZ100 powering ahead
- Huge Capex and OBBBANEED A NEW CTP
- CMG (last time was 2017)Ship Sailing
- Seems that under the protection of the USA - a Maersk ship passed through the Strait
- But how many can they do a day like this?
- Oil down after a huge spike yesterday due to IRAN striking UAEBig Shakeup
- US transportation stocks plunged after Amazon announced expanded logistics offerings that will turn it into a major competitor for parcel carriers and air freight companies.
- The move is a threat not just to other couriers' grasp on e-commerce, but potentially to more profitable areas such as healthcare, which UPS and FedEx have made a central part of their strategies.
- Amazon will offer freight, distribution and fulfillment, and parcel shipping to standalone customers, and its announcement "could be a watershed moment for North American freight transportation companies," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker.
- FedEx Corp. shares fell 9.1% in their worst day in more than a year, while rival United Parcel Service Inc. dropped more than 10%.
-- Logistics firms Forward Air Corp. and GXO Logistics … -
DHUnplugged #800: 50-50 Market
29 april 2026 · 1 uur 4 min
Beluister deze afleveringAll-time highs - SP500 up 9% MTD - NAS100 even more Lees meer
Balanced risk - up or down from here is evenly matched
All tech right now (Example Monday Equal Weighted up 0.33%, SP500 down 0.35%)
Worried about No More Mr. Nice Guy
The new "Blockchain" , "SPAC", "MEME" that is pushing stocks
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Warm-Up
- HUGE MOVES - All from Tweets
- Earnings seasons - banks did goooood
-- Earnings season - carrot ahead of next week when the tech giants report (lots of bulls on this)
- A belated 420 day to all you stoners out there! Grab a gummy, come back in about 45 minutes and listen - show will be much better...
- Tariff refunds now availableMarkets
- All-time highs - SP500 up 9% MTD - NAS100 even more
- Balanced risk - up or down from here is evenly matched
-- All tech right now (One day Equal Weighted up 0.33%, SP500 down 0.35%,) - Equal weight up 4.5% MTD, S&P up 9%
- Worried about No More Mr. Nice Guy ? - Seems like Trump is bored with the Iran thing...
- The new "Blockchain" , "SPAC", "MEME" that is pushing stocksAnnouncing the Winner of the Closest to the Pin for NetGear...
Open /Closed
- Straits of Hormuz closed again, and again
- The brief opening allowed for a cruise ship to sneak through last week.
- Celestyal Discovery, a 1,360-guest vessel operated by Greece-based Celestyal Cruises, departed Port Rashid in Dubai, U.A.E., on April 17 at 11:36 a.m. local time, becoming the first cruise ship known to exit the strait since the crisis began earlier this year.
- No passengers aboard - aside from Captain and Crew.
- - That must have been a pretty scary passing....OIL
- Oil hovering in the $80-$90 range for a while, now topping $100
- WTI and Brent flipped back to the normal relationship… -
DHUnplugged #799: Out of Action Again
22 april 2026 · 50 min
Beluister deze afleveringAll-time highs - SP500 up 8% MTD - NAS100 even more Lees meer
Balanced risk - up or down from here is evenly matched
JCD could not make it tonight - back for some more tests....
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