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Oh Sh*T... The ENTIRE U.S. Economy Just Got Downgraded
27 juni 2025 · 20 min
To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
https://event.webinarjam.com/register/29/4yzg6cx2 Lees meerIt never was entirely tariff distortions. Everyone had tried to dismiss Q1 as an anomaly. Later revisions have instead shown there is indeed a shift happening among US consumers. Even Winnebago agrees and RVs are the canary for the canary in the macro coalmine. Beveridge is getting closer.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Slash Services Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/us-gdp-revised-lower-as-consumers-slash-recreation-spendingWinnebago
https://winnebago.gcs-web.com/static-files/e0acc2ce-9a34-456d-8f68-a8235351493aWSJ Winnebago Cuts Guidance as Soft Demand Hurts RV Retail Sales
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/winnebago-cuts-revenue-profit-outlook-after-declines-0b3a9053https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Most Significant Real Estate Event in DECADES is Here
26 juni 2025 · 20 min
The housing market keeps spitting out alarming signs of a growing bust. Sales are down huge, prices are actually falling - and that's the government's estimates. Most of all, this is directly connected to the economy and especially jobs. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
******
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
******Bloomberg Bond Traders Boost Bets US 10-Year Yield Will Dive Toward 4%
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/bond-traders-boost-bets-that-us-10-year-yield-to-dive-toward-4Bloomberg US New-Home Sales Drop by Most Since 2022 on Poor Affordability
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-25/us-new-home-sales-drop-to-seven-month-low-on-poor-affordabilityConference Board
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidenceReuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-confidence-deteriorates-june-2025-06-24/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Last Time This Happened, the System Almost Collapsed
25 juni 2025 · 21 min
Swiss francs are soaring again. This isn't a "sell America" trade (which doesn't exist), or the crashing dollar (also doesn't exist). The monetary system remains on edge and now we know why. The shocking full story of what really happened in April and how close we were to the shadow's edge. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Housing Crash Just Started in Florida
24 juni 2025 · 21 min
Florida has long been the housing canary in the national real estate coalmine. The situation in the Sunshine State is anything but sunny with prices even outright declining in six key areas. That's just where the downturn is most pronounced right now. The excuses for an increasingly ugly housing market have worn out as the real story is finally being revealed. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Kenny's Channel
https://www.youtube.com/@KenMcElroy
Video w/Jeff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDQunoS96X4FRB Vice Chair Michelle Bowman Unintended Policy Shifts and Unexpected Consequences
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20250623a.htmNAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.8% Increase in May
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-0-8-increase-in-mayNewsweek Most Florida Housing Markets Are in Trouble
https://www.newsweek.com/most-florida-housing-markets-trouble-2086554Bloomberg US Spring Homebuying Season Has Its Weakest Start in Five Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/us-spring-homebuying-season-has-its-weakest-start-in-five-yearsBloomberg US Home Resales Stay Sluggish on Affordability Constraints
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/us-home-resales-stay-sluggish-on-affordability-constraintsNAR May 2024
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-chief-economist-lawrence-yun-predicts-falling-long-term-interest-rates-rising-existing-homehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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BREAKING: The Fed Just Announced Rate Cuts (What You Must Know)
23 juni 2025 · 19 min
The Fed is going cut...in July. Period. Book it. Conditions have drastically changed and the officials shift is now underway. Rates are going down everywhere, including in DC. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
CNBC Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Forgotten Depression That Explains What’s Happening Today
22 juni 2025 · 21 min
A lot of people, maybe even a majority, find the idea of a two-decade long depression too far-fetched to take seriously. Something like that could never, ever happen. Could it? The problem is most everyone's idea of what a depression is needs to be corrected - another huge piece left missing by Economics. What is a depression? Way too familiar. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents
NBER Cycle Dates
https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractionsNYT Sept 19, 1873
https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1873/09/19/issue.htmlDavid A. Wells The Economic Disturbances Since 1873
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Popular_Science_Monthly/Volume_31/July_1887/The_Economic_Disturbances_Since_1873_IHenry George Causes of Business Depression
https://bibliotek1.dk/english/by-henry-george/articles-and-speeches/causes-of-business-depressionJM Keynes A Tract on Monetary Reform
https://ia902905.us.archive.org/35/items/tractonmonetaryr0000keyn/tractonmonetaryr0000keyn.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Europe’s Wealthiest Nations Are Quietly Falling Apart
20 juni 2025 · 21 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerIt's back. No one wanted it, but it's here. Switzerland is first to revisit this dreaded milestone. Others aren't far behind, including now Sweden. The Swedes are facing exactly the sort of rough circumstances that made the Swiss National Bank take this drastic step. And if you think the Fed's dots have separate the FOMC from all this, look no further than one year ago.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
SNB Press Release Policy Decision
https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20250619_2CNBC International SNB Martin Schlegel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY2-lrxsJfMRiksbank Press Release Policy Decision
https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2025/policy-rate-is-cut-to-2-per-cent/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Fed Rate Decision Going Viral, Here's what you MUST Know
19 juni 2025 · 31 min
The FOMC met today and while predictably there was no rate action, neither the dots nor the downgraded economy were the key takeaways. Chair Powell’s press conference became the perfect example of what the Fed has become. Lees meer
What would you say you do here?
Meanwhile, the markets, the economy and T-bills.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Airlines Just Issued a MASSIVE Warning About Consumer Behavior
18 juni 2025 · 17 min
Struggling airlines grappling with staycations offer insight into consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the government also showed spending on goods (and certain key services) tanked again in May. Even the world's biggest entertainers and their concert tours are suddenly having a hard time. The dreaded pullback keeps getting louder and more confirmed. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
IATA June 2025
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/Bloomberg Trump Risks US Consumer Discontent With His Tariffs, Poll Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-24/trump-risks-us-consumer-discontent-with-his-tariffs-poll-showsBloomberg Concert Ticket Prices Are Falling For the First Time in Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-16/concert-ticket-prices-are-falling-for-the-first-time-in-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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This Is What a Banking Crisis Looks Like
17 juni 2025 · 20 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerNine months later, China's bazooka has totally flopped. We have all the proof necessary. But the "stimulus" failure is not even the biggest takeaway. The full story behind it starts with banks, detours into massive volatility in Hong Kong, before ending up with zombies. Seriously.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Beijing’s Borrowing Drove Credit Growth Despite Weak Loan Demand
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-13/china-credit-expansion-new-loans-rose-less-than-expected-in-mayBloomberg China Forced to Keep Unprofitable Firms Alive to Save Jobs and Avoid Unrest
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-12/xi-keeps-china-s-unprofitable-businesses-alive-to-save-jobs-and-avoid-unrestHK HIBOR
https://www.hkab.org.hk/en/rates/hiborhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Oil Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud
16 juni 2025 · 18 min
Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Everything You’ve Been Told About the Dollar Is Wrong
15 juni 2025 · 21 min
When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Is the Bond Market Wrong?
13 juni 2025 · 20 min
Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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BREAKING: World Bank Issues DIRE Warning to the World
12 juni 2025 · 22 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerNegative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
World Bank
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospectshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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This Is What the Collapse Looks Like
11 juni 2025 · 21 min
Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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You Won’t Believe What India’s Central Bank Just Did
10 juni 2025 · 20 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerRBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fell "shock and awe" is necessary to shore it up?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BBC India central bank delivers sharp rate cut as growth and inflation fall
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62vdq6g945oTimes of India
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/bank-loans-to-nbfcs-slows-sharply/articleshow/121557368.cmshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Something Really Strange Just Happened to the Bond Market
9 juni 2025 · 21 min
ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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URGENT: The Labor Market Just Broke
8 juni 2025 · 27 min
The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.
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While EVERYONE'S Distracted by Trump and Elon, the ECB Just SHOCKED the World
6 juni 2025 · 21 min
Eight times now. The ECB is trying to say it might be one now, yet no one is listening least of all the economy. What everyone really wants to know is, when is the Fed going to follow along? In addition to all these other central banks acting, the latest reports from the Fed itself show that rejoining the global rate race might be a lot closer than everyone thinks. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Press Conference Statement
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250605~f00a36ef2b.en.htmlBloomberg US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to Highest Level Since October
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-05/us-initial-jobless-claims-rise-to-highest-level-since-octoberFed Beige Book May 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250604.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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WARNING: ADP Job Numbers Revised MASSIVELY Down
5 juni 2025 · 22 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerFor a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the worst numbers for each in years.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ADP May 2025
https://adpemploymentreport.com/Bloomberg US Hiring Cools to Slowest Pace in Two Years, ADP Data Show
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-hiring-falls-to-slowest-pace-in-two-years-adp-data-showBloomberg US Services Activity Contracts for First Time in Nearly a Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-services-activity-contracts-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-year
CNBC Trump says ‘Too Late’ Powell must lower interest rates after weak ADP jobs report
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/trump-powell-adp-jobs.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
This Is What An Economic Collapse Actually Looks Like
4 juni 2025 · 22 min
Why are swap spreads today as negative as they had been in the worst parts of April? Why is Swiss franc nearly as strong? Consumer prices undershooting and even turning negative offer a bigtime clue. As does the latest from Chinese and American factories. It’s not one big thing like April, it’s all the little things which keep coming up and piling on. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Swiss Inflation Turns Negative for First Time in Four Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/swiss-inflation-turns-negative-for-first-time-in-four-yearsBloomberg Euro-Zone Inflation Slows Below 2%, Backing More ECB Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/euro-zone-inflation-slows-below-2-backing-more-ecb-rate-cutsBloomberg RBA’s Hunter Sees US Tariffs Dragging on Australian Growth, Jobs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/rba-s-hunter-sees-us-tariffs-dragging-on-australian-growth-jobsOECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.htmlCNBC U.S. growth forecast cut sharply by OECD as Trump tariffs sour global outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/03/us-growth-forecast-cut-further-by-oecd-as-trump-tariffs-sour-outlook.htmlBloomberg China’s Private Factory Gauge Plunges to Weakest Since 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/china-private-factory-gauge-unexpectedly-shrinks-after-us-trucehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Oh No, European Banks Are Doing Something REALLY Weird
3 juni 2025 · 21 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerSeveral more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threatening on-site visits to get some answers before the economy really takes its turn.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Sweden’s Surprise Economic Contraction Boosts Rate Cut Odds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/swedish-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-weighed-down-by-investmentBloomberg ECB Steps Up Scrutiny of Banks’ Exposure to Private Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/ecb-intensifies-scrutiny-of-banks-exposure-to-private-marketshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
BREAKING: Texas Gives MASSIVE Warning Of Consumer Behavior
2 juni 2025 · 20 min
Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. Economy Lees meer
Consumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.
Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?
In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it could ripple across the entire U.S. economy in the months ahead.
If the U.S. consumer breaks, it’s game over.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Truth About the Dollar They DON’T Want You to Know
1 juni 2025 · 22 min
Everyone's favorite topic, yet there is little factually correct information floating around the internet or social media. You can't understand the dollar's position until you realize it's actually the eurodollar you're really talking about. And that means reserve currency, and hardly anyone knows what that truly means or involves. Until now. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents
FOMC Minutes December 1963
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomchistmin19631217.pdfFOMC Transcript Feb 1998
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfBIS 1964 34th Annual Report
https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1964_en.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
You Won’t Believe What South Korea’s Central Bank Just Did
30 mei 2025 · 22 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerSouth Korea had been on the side of the Fed, sticking with interest rates opting to see about trade war "uncertainty" before doing anything. That lasted all of four weeks. The list of central banks able to sit by and watch CPI has thinned down to just the one Mr. Powell runs. And the update to Q1 GDP in the US holds the key as to why.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Bank of Korea Flags More Rate Cuts to Come as Tariffs Hit Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bok-cuts-rate-to-cushion-economy-from-tariffs-political-turmoilCNBC Bank of Korea lowers interest rates for the fourth time, flags more cuts ahead
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/south-korea-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-.htmlChosunBiz Bank of Korea lowers interest rate to 2.50%, signals possibility of further cuts
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/05/29/E5KPW2LQYFGPRF5EM5G3RUM4XQ/Bloomberg Banxico Sees Growth of 0.1% This Year, Rules Out Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bank-lending-to-private-credit-funds-swells-145-in-five-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Global Economy Just Flipped (Mass Layoffs Have Begun)
29 mei 2025 · 21 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerGermany. France. New Zealand. Singapore. ECB. Rising unemployment. Falling employment. Lowering interest rates. Technical recession. Historically low territory up next. There is almost no one left in the official world in the same thinking as the Fed as the world more clearly and completely tilts against "inflation."
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WSJ Germany’s Jobless Numbers Tick Higher
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/germanys-jobless-numbers-tick-higher-27a99b18Le Monde France's great consumption slump
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/10/10/france-s-great-consumption-slump_6728864_19.htmlBloomberg ECB Faces Greater Risk Inflation Will Undershoot 2%, Simkus Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/ecb-faces-greater-risk-inflation-will-undershoot-2-simkus-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Australian Central Bank Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World
29 mei 2025 · 18 min
The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispute-aiding-australian-firmsS&P Global Eurozone PMIs May 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f4672a7ff89744e096c5e9497d2e5362https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Fed Is About to Cut Rates, Here’s What They’re NOT Telling You
26 mei 2025 · 21 min
The economy weakens and everyone looks to the Fed or any central bank to cut policy rates. But why? They call it stimulus but the real reason is nothing you've ever heard. In fact, Fed officials intentionally lied for decades to keep this quiet. You don't have to take my word for it; hear it from the maestro's mouth as we go down the rabbit hole of interest rates. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents
FOMC March 1991
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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URGENT: The Bond Market JUST Flashed a MAJOR Warning
23 mei 2025 · 21 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerLT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another major warning, and it isn't too many Treasuries.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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You Won’t Believe What Global Banks JUST Did
22 mei 2025 · 21 min
We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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You Won’t Believe What the Swiss Central Bank Just Said
21 mei 2025 · 20 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerWhile we wait to see if the Swiss National Bank opts for zero or negative policy rates next month, its chief Martin Schlegel had a lot to say yesterday about a range of topics, including negative prices, Treasury bonds, and global risks. Jamie Dimon then today chimed in today cautioning that stocks and risk markets are ready for heightened credit risks. One reason why is volatility in repo, where TIC data shows a huge increasing in offshore resales heading into everything April.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Dimon Warns Markets Are Underestimating Geopolitical, Inflation Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/jpmorgan-s-dimon-warns-against-complacency-amid-mounting-risksBloomberg Swiss Inflation Risks Falling Below Zero in Individual Months This Year, Schlegel Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-chief-sees-subzero-inflation-in-individual-months-this-yearBloomberg SNB President Schlegel Sees No Alternative to US Treasuries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-president-schlegel-sees-no-alternative-to-us-treasuriesBloomberg Singapore Central Bank Chief Says US Dollar Assets Irreplaceable
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-20/singapore-central-bank-chief-says-us-dollar-assets-irreplaceablehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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URGENT: U.S. Credit Debt Just Got Downgraded, Is a Crash Next?In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds o
20 mei 2025 · 21 min
In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Means
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-marketsS&P Global August 5, 2011
https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837Fitch August 1, 2023
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023https://www.eurodollar.university
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Japan JUST Entered a Recession And It's Quickly Spreading Worldwide
19 mei 2025 · 19 min
Japan did indeed fall back into recession in the first quarter before the tariff shock even had a chance to hit the economy, and positing a deeper negative GDP print than expected. Like everywhere else, the setback is being led largely by consumers. At the same time, American consumer confidence fell to another shocking low rather than rebound with trade deals and a rebounding stock market. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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Everything You’ve Been Told About the Great Depression Is Wrong
18 mei 2025 · 20 min
It’s still known as Black Tuesday almost a century later. In October 1929, the stock market crashes and plunges the world into the Great Depression. At least that’s what we’ve been told and what we all believe. But then why didn’t the Crash of 1987 lead to Great Depression 2? I mean, it didn’t even slow the economy down. Or the dot-com crash. Something is missing. As it turns out, there's a lot missing and so this is the first installment to fill in what Economics leaves out, or plain gets wrong. Lees meer
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The Retail Death Spiral Has Begun
16 mei 2025 · 21 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerIt was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Walmart Q1 earnings
https://corporate.walmart.com/content/dam/corporate/documents/newsroom/2025/05/15/walmart-releases-q1-fy26-earnings/q1-fy26-earnings-release.pdfCNN Walmart warns it will raise prices because of tariffs
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/business/walmart-prices-tariffsCNBC Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earnings
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.htmlBloomberg US Retail Sales Barely Rise, Suggesting Some Spending Pullback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-retail-sales-barely-rise-suggesting-some-spending-pullbackBloomberg US Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly in April as Margins Shrank
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-producer-prices-fall-unexpectedly-as-margins-declineReuters US manufacturing output falls in April on weak auto production
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-manufacturing-output-falls-april-weak-auto-production-2025-05-15/https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Most Dangerous Economic Story No One Is Talking About
15 mei 2025 · 21 min
Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problemRueters China's property 'whitelist' lifeline stutters amid sector gloom
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-whitelist-lifeline-stutters-amid-sector-gloom-2024-05-14/https://www.eurodollar.university
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Everyone Is Missing the Real Story
14 mei 2025 · 22 min
Microsoft announced another round of layoffs. Coming from a company that isn't struggling nearly as much as most, it's an ominous sign. The April CPI shows why and not just for Microsoft. It instead aligns with the biggest problem in the economy, and that's not inflation which was absent from the report despite the start of tariffs. A surprise to Economists, but not to BED. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Microsoft laying off about 6,000 people, or 3% of its workforce
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/microsoft-is-cutting-3percent-of-workers-across-the-software-company.htmlBloomberg Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Points to Muted Tariff Fallout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/us-inflation-comes-in-softer-than-forecast-for-another-monthBLS BED/BDM
https://www.bls.gov/bdm/bdmover.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Ridiculous Real story Behind the Tariff Deal
13 mei 2025 · 21 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerRe-risking accelerated on Wall Street and for many other markets; even bond yields rose. The thinking is if trade wars broke everything, then trade deals fix it. However, the US and China don't have one, And that's only the first of several key misimpressions - starting with the 2018 example. Like then, the incoming data doesn't align with "trade wars broke it."
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/05/joint-statement-on-u-s-china-economic-and-trade-meeting-in-geneva/Bloomberg US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/us-and-china-agree-to-major-reductions-in-tariffs-for-90-daysBloomberg Japan Rules Out Trade Deal With US That Excludes Auto Tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/japan-s-ishiba-says-won-t-do-trade-deal-with-us-excluding-autosSCMP China’s consumer prices fall in April, fuelling fears of deflation
https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3309834/chinas-consumer-prices-fall-april-fuelling-fears-deflationhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Government Report Reveals A LOT of People Are About to Lose Their Jobs
12 mei 2025 · 20 min
What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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WARNING: Canada’s Job Market Just COLLAPSED
11 mei 2025 · 17 min
Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdfTranscript Chair Powell Press Conference May 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfBloomberg Canada Joblessness Hits 6.9% as Tariffs Strike Manufacturing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/canada-adds-7-400-jobs-unemployment-jumps-to-6-9Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2025
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/SPG Canada Manufacturing PMI April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/487ca2cba7784b86aa9d9df3a315d744SPG Canada Services PMI April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c356ce1148c420fbee728307ef2b2dchttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Bank of England Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World
9 mei 2025 · 23 min
Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bank of England MPR May 2025
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/may-2025FOMC Chair May 2025 press conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oX4RCJJXAM
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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NEW Report Shows Global Banks Are Dangerously Overexposed to Risk
8 mei 2025 · 23 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerInsiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast their blame specifically toward banks.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Short Sellers Bet Against Private Credit Lenders
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-03/short-sellers-bet-against-private-credit-lenders-credit-weeklyIMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2025
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/04/22/global-financial-stability-report-april-2025IMF Private Credit
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/08/fast-growing-USD2-trillion-private-credit-market-warrants-closer-watchhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Credit Default Swaps Are SURGING, Here's What You Need To Know
7 mei 2025 · 20 min
US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?
https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201402.pdfMSCI The CDS Market’s View on US Default
https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/the-cds-market-s-view-on-us/03820087801Bloomberg Oaktree Co-CEO Sees Private Credit Trades as Low as 50 Cents
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-02/oaktree-s-o-leary-says-deep-discounts-arising-in-private-credithttps://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SH*T! The Global Currency Crisis Is Worse Than Anyone Expected
6 mei 2025 · 22 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerAnother major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central bank is looking at zero rates next month - if not negative given what both these currencies are doing.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Hong Kong Dollar Tests Strong End of Trading Band for Second Day
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-05/hong-kong-dollar-tests-strong-end-of-trading-band-for-second-dayhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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BREAKING: Jobs Report Just Dropped — Here's What You Need to Know
5 mei 2025 · 20 min
The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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Japan Has Fallen: Here's What It Means for the World
4 mei 2025 · 20 min
Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Says Emergency Rate Cuts Needed NOW
2 mei 2025 · 21 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerThe Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is itself shifting to recession economics.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/bessent-says-two-year-treasuries-are-signaling-fed-should-cutBloomberg Understanding the Unlikely Saudi Push for Lower Oil Prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/opec-puzzle-understanding-the-saudi-push-for-lower-oil-pricesCNN McDonald’s just had its worst quarter since Covid. It said customers are getting nervous
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025https://www.eurodollar.university
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BREAKING: Global GDP Released, Here's Everything You Need To Know
1 mei 2025 · 21 min
A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-april-2025.htmlBloomberg Mexico Economy Narrowly Dodges Recession Amid US Trade Chaos
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/mexico-economy-narrowly-dodges-recession-amid-trump-trade-chaosCNBC Euro zone economy expands by better-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/euro-zone-gdp-q1-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Job Fear Just SURGED to Its Worst Level Since 2009
30 april 2025 · 21 min
Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Conference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-25/economists-say-trade-war-makes-us-recession-almost-a-coin-fliphttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Fed Quietly Admits Mass Layoffs Have Begun, And The Economy Is Falling Apart
29 april 2025 · 20 min
If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdfTexas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.university
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