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Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble
26 oktober 2026 · 28 min
ndreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to challenge one of the biggest narratives in markets: that the AI boom is simply another dot-com bubble waiting to burst. They break down why today's AI investment cycle may be fundamentally different from the late 1990s, and what that means for tech stocks and the broader market outlook. Lees meer
They also unpack the latest political surprise involving Brazil's Lula and the implications for emerging markets, before turning to renewed EU–China trade tensions and what another escalation could mean for global trade, European industry, and investors.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Anthropic IPO Filing: What It Reveals About the AI Buildout
02:41 - AI vs Dot-Com: Why the Comparison Still Doesn’t Hold
05:54 - Why Higher Rates Are Forcing AI to Prove ROI Now
08:15 - Big Tech Earnings: Can Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft Calm Credit Markets?
09:32 - GPU Rental Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case
12:33 - Is Anthropic Running Out of Compute?
15:22 - Anthropic IPO: Could It Pull Capital Away From the Mag 7?
16:42 - Where to Position If the Fed Finally Acknowledges Tight Financial Conditions
18:33 - Has the Market Already Priced in the End of the AI Boom?
19:19 - Brazil Election Shock: Lula Wins and Markets Get Hit
22:08 - Israel Election: Why Policy Toward Iran May Not Change Much
23:50 - EU vs China: Europe Escalates the Trade War🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally?
19 oktober 2026 · 24 min
Andreas Steno of Steno Research is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays, breaking down the latest inflation signals and what they mean for the market outlook. With energy prices and input costs rising, is another inflation shock on the horizon, and could Kevin Warsh be focusing on the wrong inflation measure? Andreas also examines the latest business cycle data, why he's not ready to turn bearish on equities just yet, and what renewed pressure in France's bond market could mean for European investors. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - France Is Burning — But Is the Market Panic Overdone?
02:30 - French Bond Stress: Why Credit Markets Are Turning on France
04:23 - AI Credit Stress: Is the Data Center Buildout Finally Breaking?
05:14 - Extreme Fear, Record Hedging, and the Midterm Setup
07:30 - Why This AI Selloff Is More Fundamental Than the Last Ones
08:26 - Hot CPI and PPI — So Why Did Bond Yields Fall?
09:38 - Positioning Is Crowded: Bonds, Energy, Dollar, and AI
11:30 - Inflation Peak Ahead? Why October Could Be the Turning Point
14:35 - Are the Mag 7 Really About to Cut AI CapEx?
15:41 - Compute Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case
18:04 - DeepSeek Banned From US Government Systems: A New AI Trade War?
20:12 - Hiking Cycles, Credit Stress, and the Timing of the Next Trade
21:05 - Why Inflation and the Midterms Could Set Up a Q4 ReboundDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #realvision
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How Much Longer Can This Cycle Run?
5 oktober 2026 · 31 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle the question that matters most for markets right now: are we still mid-cycle, or are the warning signs of a late-cycle economy starting to pile up? They also head to Europe, where surging French bond yields, political uncertainty, and renewed concerns over the country’s finances are putting pressure on French assets. Is the turmoil a genuine warning for investors — or exactly the kind of dislocation you should be buying? Plus, Andreas and Mikkel revisit purchasing power parity and ask how useful PPP really is when trying to figure out where currencies should trade. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays October 5, 2026
00:22 - Mid-Cycle or Late-Cycle? The Big Macro Question
02:14 - GDP vs PPP: Is Russia’s Economy Really Smaller Than the UK’s?
05:15 - Why Energy and Food Self-Sufficiency Matter More in a Crisis
07:21 - Iran War Update: Why Oil Flows Are Better Than Before the War
10:56 - Can a Democratic Midterm Sweep Derail the AI Buildout?
14:32 - ISM Services Miss: Is the US Economy Starting to Slow?
17:55 - France in Turmoil: Are Markets Pricing in Too Much Political Risk?
20:39 - Marine Le Pen, French Bonds, and Why France Could Be a Buy
26:09 - Mid-Cycle vs Late-Cycle: Will Central Banks Kill the Expansion?
29:01 - Dollar Strength, Hormuz, and the April-Style Setup Returning#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch
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Is the yield curve inverted?
29 september 2026 · 27 min
Apologies for the late upload! Lees meer
We cover the inversion of the yield curve and what that tells us about the business cycle and the outlook for equities. We also discuss the impasse in US-Iran negotiations and the US-China summit.
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Are Markets About to Take Off Again? | September 21, 2026
21 september 2026 · 26 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether markets are beginning to resemble the setup we saw in March. With the Fed having hiked, yields elevated, and oil moving lower, are the conditions falling into place for another leg higher? They also unpack the new U.S.–Denmark–Greenland agreement and what it means for the shifting geopolitical picture in the Arctic, before diving into the recent crypto rally to see whether it really has legs. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
00:22 - Crypto Is Ripping: Should Investors Rotate Out of AI?
03:05 - What’s Really Driving the Crypto Rally?
04:31 - Why AI and Crypto Could Work Together in the Agent Economy
08:23 - Why Markets Are Starting to Look Like March and April Again
11:47 - Trump-Xi Summit: Chips, China, and the Next Trade-War Test
15:20 - South Korea Exports Surge as the Semiconductor Boom Reaccelerates
18:09 - Greenland Deal: What the US, Denmark, and NATO Actually Got
22:08 - Semiconductors vs Gold vs Crypto: The Best Q4 Setups
23:43 - Iran, Hormuz, and Why We May Be Past Peak Escalation#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket
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Is the Risk-On Trade Breaking Down? | Macro Mondays: September 14, 2026
14 september 2026 · 31 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision! Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes
02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow?
05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs
09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout?
11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows?
15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely
17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock
20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst
22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike
24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking?
25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade
27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno
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Is Risk-On Too Risky? | August 31, 2026
31 augustus 2026 · 29 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh’s surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case? Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
00:23 - Kevin Warsh Turns Hawkish: Should Investors Pull Back on Risk?
02:01 - What Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Really Changed
03:31 - PCE vs CPI: Which Inflation Signal Should the Fed Trust?
06:22 - Warsh vs Bessent: The Battle Over Rates and Bond Yields
08:58 - September Rate Hike: Is the Market Overreading the Fed?
13:04 - Why One Rate Hike Probably Won’t Kill the Business Cycle
15:17 - US Strikes Larak Island: Is the Iran War Restarting?
16:46 - Strait of Hormuz, Crack Spreads, and the Next Inflation Trade
21:12 - South Korea Exports vs ISM: The AI Boom Is Still Running Hot
24:01 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Weak Payrolls May Not Stop the Fed
25:54 - ECB vs Fed: Why the Short-Dollar Trade Still Works#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #realvision
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Are Markets About to Rip Higher?| August 24, 2026
24 augustus 2026 · 31 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether Friday’s stock market rally marks the return of a more bullish macro setup, and how far this move could run. They break down Scott Bessent’s latest intervention in bond markets and what it could mean for yields, the U.S. dollar, and global liquidity. Plus, they dig into the intensifying Anthropic vs. OpenAI battle and ask whether markets are getting another dose of “Warsh hopium” after Friday’s price action. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Are We Finally Back?
00:59 - Bitcoin and Gold Start Moving Again
02:25 - Why the Debasement Trade Is Back
03:24 - What Treasury Buybacks Actually Do
04:53 - The TGA Changes the Liquidity Story
05:29 - Why Bank Liquidity Matters for Markets
07:19 - How Much Liquidity Could Treasury Add?
09:42 - Hedge Funds Become the Marginal Treasury Buyer
11:35 - Is This Sustainable for Bitcoin and Gold?
12:19 - Temporary vs. Permanent Liquidity
14:02 - How Big Could Bessent’s Buybacks Get?
16:46 - Andreas’ Weaker-Dollar Portfolio Setup
18:03 - OpenAI vs. Anthropic
24:14 - Iran, China, and the Geopolitical Spillover
28:06 - What Could Kevin Warsh Say at Jackson Hole?
29:07 - The Most Important Macro Chart Right Now
30:06 - Is the Fed About to Turn Less Hawkish?#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket #fed #bonds #treasuries #usdollar #dxy #liquidity #openai #anthropic #interestrates #trading #realvision #scottbessent #kevinwarsh #federalreserve
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Inflation Is Cooling, So What Is the Fed Seeing? | Macro Mondays: August 17, 2026
17 augustus 2026 · 31 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back for another episode of Macro Mondays, boiling down the latest topics, from why the Fed may still be overreading inflation risks to why Donald Trump ordered a pullback on military exercises in South Korea. Plus, Andreas lays out his favorite trades for the current macro regime. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Goldilocks Is Back? Why Growth and Inflation Are Finally Aligning
05:02 - US Consumer Strength vs Record-Low Sentiment: What’s Really Going On
10:41 - Why the Fed Could Be Wrong-Footed by Falling Inflation
13:07 - Four Reasons US Inflation Is Cooling Faster Than Expected
18:45 - Could Goldilocks Change the Midterm Election Outlook?
19:36 - Trump, South Korea, and the Growing Risk to Asia’s AI Supply Chain
22:08 - High-Bandwidth Memory, China, and the US Export-Control Problem
24:31 - Micron, Memory Stocks, and Why the AI Trade May Still Be Early
26:34 - The Best Macro Trade Now: Own Inflation Where the Fed Can’t See It
29:31 - Why a Weaker Dollar Could Unlock the Next Leg of the Rally#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #trump #jobs #korea
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Is the Economy Running Too Hot? | Macro Mondays: August 10, 2026
10 augustus 2026 · 26 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack a seemingly contradictory macro setup, with the economy running hot despite slowing jobs growth and fading inflation. They break down Andreas’ latest convictions on where we are in the business cycle, and whether Kevin Warsh and the Fed are misreading the setup. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:23 - CPI Preview: Is Inflation Falling Faster Than Expected?
01:11 - Why Tariff Refunds Could Keep US Inflation Low
05:28 - Oil, Hormuz, and Why the Energy Shock Looks Over
09:21 - Fed Rate Hikes: Is Kevin Warsh Misreading the Inflation Setup?
12:22 - Jobs, Growth, and the World Cup Hangover
14:33 - Is the US Business Cycle Approaching a Peak?
18:17 - South Korea Semiconductor Exports: The AI Signal to Watch
20:19 - Why Slower AI Growth Could Still Be Bullish for Chip Stocks
22:33 - Hyperscaler CapEx: When Does the AI Spending Boom Actually Slow?#macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #businesscycle #interestrates #markets #finance
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U.S. Rescues The Yen | Macro Mondays August 3, 2026
3 augustus 2026 · 26 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down a dramatic start to the week, beginning with the rare coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen and what the market reaction says about currencies, rates, and the future of the carry trade. They Unpack Donald Trump’s decision to postpone planned strikes on Iran in favor of renewed talks, and examine the implosion of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s highly leveraged AI hedge fund and what this means for the AI trade. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Monarch
01:23 - US Intervention to Support the Yen: What Markets Need to Know
04:45 - Why the US Stepped Into the Japanese Yen Market
06:03 - Iran Talks Resume as Trump Calls Off Planned Strikes
07:32 - The Sinus-Wave War: Why Markets Are Panicking Less
08:49 - Oil Flows, Strait of Hormuz, and the Risk Premium Fading
11:16 - What Trump Really Needs From a New Iran Deal
14:07 - Inflation Is Falling Faster Than the Fed Realizes
18:40 - Strong PMI, Higher Real Rates, and the Momentum Selloff
19:48 - Microsoft vs Alphabet: The AI CapEx Accounting Divide
22:21 - Why Memory Chips Could Be More Valuable Than GPUs
24:56 - Inside Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Hedge-Fund Implosion
26:08 - Global Macro Opportunities and Why the Dollar Could Weaken#macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno
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China Just Shocked The AI Race | Macro Mondays: July 20, 2026
20 juli 2026 · 30 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to examine the latest market topics, from how Kimi AI's breakthrough is reshaping the AI investment narrative to how escalations between the U.S. and Iran are reshaping energy markets. And what of Donald Trump's renewed accusations against China? Andreas and Mikkel get into it all. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
01:30 - Kimi AI Shock: Has China Taken the Lead?
02:28 - Kimi K3 vs ChatGPT and Claude: What the Benchmarks Really Show
05:30 - Why China’s AI Catch-Up Could Boost Hardware Demand
08:22 - Software vs Semiconductors: Who Actually Loses From Cheaper AI?
14:39 - Momentum Crash: What Triggered the Sell-Off in AI Stocks?
16:43 - Iran War Escalates as the IRGC Rebuilds Its War Chest
21:24 - How Long Can the US Withstand the Oil Supply Disruption?
23:45 - Why Oil Is Unlikely to Break Above $100 Again
28:06 - Semiconductors, AI Infrastructure, and the Next Portfolio Opportunities#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold
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Why Did the Iran War Restart? | Macro Mondays July 13, 2026
13 juli 2026 · 32 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U.S.-China rivalry. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:22 - Strait of Hormuz Crisis Returns: Should Markets Worry?
02:24 - Trump Wants the US to Control the Strait of Hormuz
03:53 - Oil Flows, Dark Tankers, and the Real Supply Risk
06:12 - How Long Can the US and China Cover the Oil Shortfall?
08:29 - Jet Fuel, Diesel, and the Inflation Risk Markets Are Missing
10:22 - CPI Preview: Could Inflation Surprise Sharply Lower?
15:23 - Memory Stocks, Semiconductor Demand, and the AI CapEx Boom
19:18 - South Korea Exports: Has the Memory Trade Finally Peaked?
22:58 - ASML Earnings and the Next Test for AI Stocks
24:42 - US-China Decoupling, Critical Metals, and the Dollar Trade🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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The Fed's Mistake | Macro Mondays: July 6, 2026
6 juli 2026 · 31 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? They break down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and discuss the political and economic implications of the FIFA World Cup. Lees meer
00:22 - Macro Mondays: Inflation, Oil, Korea, and the Memory Trade
03:41 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Faster Than Markets Expect
08:17 - Oil Outlook: Why the Hormuz Shock Never Became a Crisis
10:19 - Strait of Hormuz Bypass Trade and China’s Oil Buying Strike
13:03 - Why Iran Has Already Lost Leverage Over Hormuz
20:48 - Meta, AI Compute Demand, and Why CapEx Isn’t Slowing Down
22:57 - Korea Exports, HBM Demand, and the Next Leg of the Memory Trade
26:44 - Samsung Earnings, Hynix Listings, and What Comes Next for AI Stocks#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics
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Is Everyone Wrong About the Dollar? | Macro Mondays: June 26, 2026
29 juni 2026 · 31 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back in an episode of Macro Mondays that covers why everyone is wrong-footed on U.S. dollar positioning, what the latest developments in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire are, and previews a consequential week for markets ahead, packed with Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls data, and Kevin Warsh's speech. Lees meer
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00:22 - Macro Mondays Returns: Dollar, Hormuz, and Kevin Warsh Preview
03:01 - June Winners and Losers: Memory Stocks, Biotech, and the Dollar
05:11 - Is the Hormuz War Back On or Is Oil Still Flowing?
09:11 - Is Everyone Wrong on the US Dollar?
13:34 - Kevin Warsh’s Big Test: Will the Fed Pivot Again?
17:42 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Payrolls Could Surprise Lower
20:32 - How to Position Your Portfolio Heading Into Summer Vacation
23:30 - AI Trade Check-In: Token Prices, Micron, and Memory Demand
27:30 - Apple, China Memory Chips, and the Next Consumer Scarcity Risk#macromondays #realvision #andreassteno #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitcs #macro
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Is Oil Still Flowing? | Macro Mondays: Monday, June 22, 2026
22 juni 2026 · 24 min
Andreas Steno is back flying solo again to answer the question that matters most for markets right now: Is the oil still flowing? Andreas examines what we actually know about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, how oil markets have responded, and why the feared supply shock never materialized. Lees meer
01:00 - Macro Mondays: Is the Oil Still Flowing? What Markets Need to Know
03:22 - Strait of Hormuz Reopens? What the Shipping Data Really Shows
05:25 - Oil, Jet Fuel, and Fertilizer Prices Are Rolling Over Fast
07:51 - Falling Inflation Changes the Entire Macro Regime
09:24 - Why Central Banks Still Haven’t Caught Up to the Disinflation Shift
13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs and the New AI Arms Race
17:51 - SpaceX IPO Mania and What It Says About Risk Appetite
19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Still Have Room to Run
22:45 - South Korea Exports and Why Semiconductors Still Look Strong
17:15 - Defining Therapeutics, Psychedelics, and the Next Big Micro Trade
19:35 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin Risk, and What Actually Matters Now#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision
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Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays
15 juni 2026 · 25 min
Andreas Steno is back to break down recent market volatility, unpacking all the key drivers, from global liquidity dynamics to the evolving peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has seemingly opened the Strait of Hormuz. But is the deal actually done!? Lees meer
00:07 - US-Iran Deal Nears: What It Means for Markets
02:00 - Inside the 60-Day Iran Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening
04:37 - Oil Market Surplus: Why Crude Could Fall Below $70
08:02 - Iran Sanctions Lifted: The New Supply Shock for Global Oil
10:56 - ECB Rate Hike Timing Looks Worse After Hormuz Breakthrough
13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs: Why AI Models Are Becoming Too Big to Fail
17:51 - SpaceX IPO Surge and What It Says About Risk Appetite
19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Have Further to Run
21:08 - AI Token Pricing, OpenAI, and Anthropic Ahead of IPO Season
22:45 - South Korea Exports, Semiconductors, and the Next Leg of the AI Trade🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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Panic or No Panic? | Macro Mondays: June 8, 2026
8 juni 2026 · 29 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down Red Friday and whether the market reaction to the latest jobs report was justified. They unpack what the data is really saying about growth, labor markets, liquidity, and the path for risk assets heading into summer. Lees meer
Timestamps:
01:05 - Macro Mondays: Red Friday, Jobs Shock, and Middle East Risk
03:15 - Real Vision Updates, Alpha Access, and This Week’s Schedule
05:40 - What Actually Caused Friday’s Market Selloff?
07:21 - Nasdaq Damage, CTA Flows, and Why the Straight-Line Rally Is Over
09:45 - Was Friday a VaR Shock and What Happens Next?
12:06 - The Jobs Report, World Cup Hiring, and Why Payrolls Beat Expectations
14:07 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed, and Why Rate Cuts Just Got Harder
17:38 - SpaceX IPO, Big Tech Equity Raises, and the Liquidity Squeeze
22:01 - The One Chart to Watch: AI Token Pricing and the Data Center Trade
24:37 - Iran, Israel, and Why Markets Still Aren’t Panicking
27:24 - Oil, Fertilizer, and Why the Hormuz Crisis Trade Keeps Fading#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #Iran #jobs
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3 Banger Trades For June | Macro Mondays: June 1, 2026
1 juni 2026 · 30 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the key macro themes driving markets into June. From the latest developments in Iran to bottlenecks and bitcoin, they unpack what could become the next key trades, and whether liquidity and macro data can continue to support the meteoric rise in risk assets. Lees meer
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01:06 - Macro Mondays: Iran Talks, ISM Strength, and June Trade Ideas
02:30 - State of the Union Preview: Why Macro Still Drives Everything
04:34 - Strong ISM Print and Why US Manufacturing Keeps Accelerating
06:00 - Iran Talks Break Down Again: How Fragile Is the Ceasefire?
07:30 - Why Markets Are Still Taking the Iran Headlines in Stride
10:16 - How Long Can the Global Economy Handle a Closed Hormuz?
12:34 - June Outlook: Thematics, Trade Setups, and What Still Works
13:20 - Industrial Robotics, Real-World AI, and the Next Training Bottleneck
16:54 - Liquidity in June: Treasury Cash Drawdown and Easier Leverage
20:19 - Why Bitcoin Is the Only Risk Asset Not Joining the Rally
22:53 - Three Trades for June: Security Software, Server Makers, and Drones
27:19 - Claude, ServiceNow, and the New AI-Driven Momentum Trade🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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Is Iran War Deal Imminent? | Macro Mondays: May 25, 2025
25 mei 2026 · 29 min
Real Vision’s Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they’re watching next. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Monarch Sponsor
01:00 - Macro Mondays: Iran, Hormuz, and Global Markets
01:31 - Strait of Hormuz Deal Rumors and Market Reaction
02:50 - Europe’s Heat Wave and the Energy Debate
04:21 - Trump, Iran, and the Weekend Negotiation Push
06:01 - Can Trump Sell an Iran Deal to Republicans?
07:12 - Abraham Accords, Iran, and Middle East Strategy
07:59 - Oil Drops, Bond Yields Fall, and Markets Rally
09:11 - Are Iranian Ships Actually Moving Through Hormuz?
10:58 - Why Markets Care More About Hormuz Than Politics
13:03 - Inflation Outlook: Energy vs Consumer Prices
14:20 - Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Disinflation Argument
17:45 - Which Sectors Benefit Most From Inflation?
18:45 - Why AI Hardware Is Suddenly Inflationary
21:08 - The AI Memory Boom and Rising Electronics Prices
23:39 - Why Hardware Stocks Have Outperformed in 2026
24:02 - What Happens if Inflation Peaks in June?
25:20 - Consumer Spending Is Holding Up Surprisingly Well
27:01 - Amazon, Tesla, and Luxury Stocks as the Next Trade
28:11 - PCE Inflation Data: What Markets Need This Week
29:28 - Final Thoughts: Waiting on the Iran Deal🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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Are Markets Ignoring Inflation? | Macro Mondays: May 18, 2026
18 mei 2026 · 31 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the aftermath of the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. They also dive into rising bond yields, whether markets should start worrying about rates again, and if the latest inflation reports signal something more persistent beneath the surface. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Monarch Sponsor
01:05 - Macro Mondays: Trump-Xi, Rates, Inflation, and Iran Hopeium
02:40 - Andrew Tate’s 30-Year Bond Trade and Why Long Yields Matter
06:03 - Why Rising Bond Yields May Not Mean What They Used To
10:20 - Hot CPI, PPI, and Why the Fed Still May Not Hike
14:40 - Iran Talks, Oil, and What Could Restart the Rally
16:39 - Why China-US Cooperation Is Keeping the Oil Market Balanced
19:22 - Will Trump Pivot Back to Rate Cuts After Iran?
23:06 - Semiconductors: Is It Time to Take Profits?
25:13 - Bernie Sanders, AI Data Centers, and the First Political Pushback
29:28 - UK Bonds, Fiscal Worries, and Why Political Risk May Be Overstated🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like COVID! | Macro Monday's May 11, 2026
11 mei 2026 · 31 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down why today’s macro environment is starting to resemble 2021, from renewed concerns around the Hanta virus to rising input costs and supply chain pressures. Additionally, they assess the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, and monitor the latest developments in peace talks for both Iran and Ukraine. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
01:07 - Why 2026 Is Starting to Look Like 2021
03:17 - Hantavirus, Covid Flashbacks, and Why Markets Should Ignore It
06:30 - Easy Dollar Liquidity, SLR Reform, and the Return of Risk Appetite
11:27 - Tomorrow’s CPI Report and the Next Inflation Wave
13:29 - Iran, Oil, and Why Hormuz Is Fading as a Market Driver
15:03 - Trump-Xi Meeting: The Underreported Macro Event of the Week
17:30 - Best Portfolio Hedges for US-China Decoupling
22:21 - Iran, Ukraine, China: Could Easing Geopolitics Extend the Rally?
25:12 - End Consumer Scarcity: The New AI and Semiconductor Trade🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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Inflation Inbound? | Macro Mondays: May 4, 2026
4 mei 2026 · 29 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the latest shifts in global markets, starting with fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz, then they turn to the inflation outlook, and they tackle the AI narrative, asking whether the surge in capex and demand from mega-cap tech signals a bubble, as markets continue to climb despite widespread skepticism. Lees meer
Timestamps:
01:07 - Macro Mondays: Hormuz Moves, Inflation Risks, and the AI Bubble
02:02 - Real Vision Portfolio Update and Why April Was Strong
02:44 - Microsoft Earnings, OpenAI Backlog, and the AI CapEx Debate
04:36 - Meta’s AI Spending Problem and Why the Backlog Isn’t There
07:06 - What Could Actually Burst the AI Bubble?
08:18 - Fed, ECB, and BOE Delay Hiking Talk as Hormuz Risk Builds
09:24 - Why the Fed Won’t Cut Rates Yet Under Kevin Warsh
10:19 - Project Freedom: The US Plan to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
11:13 - Trump’s Hormuz Announcement and Iran Missile Headlines
13:08 - Can Trump’s Move Break the Strait of Hormuz Deadlock?
14:20 - Why Iran Risks Looking Like the Aggressor if It Fires on Commercial Ships
16:27 - Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Hits Emerging Markets Hardest
19:17 - Why the West Can Still Pay Up for Oil and Food Supply
20:39 - Energy Shock, Imported Inflation, and the Real Risk to Western Economies
23:53 - Trump-Xi Summit Risks, Global Trade Chokepoints, & China Dependencies
26:46 - Solar Panels, Rare Earths, and the New Supply Chain Power Game🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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The Rally Nobody Believes In | Macro Mondays: April 27, 2026
27 april 2026 · 29 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz as a risk for global energy flows and supply chains continues to dominate headlines. They also zoom out to the global growth picture, exploring why sentiment remains bearish, yet equities continue to grind higher. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Welcome to Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosendvold
01:06 - Real Vision Pro Portfolio Tracker
03:55 - Laughs of the Week: X Doom Posts & AI Slop
07:57 - Festus Montana: Data Center Backlash
09:30 - Energy Trade: Nuclear, Fuel Cells & Bloom Energy
11:17 - Macro Pivot: Iran Stalemate & Strategic Patience
13:27 - Crude & Jet Fuel On-Water Storage Analysis
15:51 - Negative Natural Gas Prices in Texas vs 2022 Crisis
17:46 - Geopolitical Risk vs Market Impact Disconnect
19:10 - Investor Sentiment Disconnect at All-Time Highs
21:14 - Goldman Prime Book: Low Hedge Fund Leverage
23:26 - Semiconductors Rally: South Korea Export Surge
25:10 - Mag 7 Cloud CapEx & The Next Power Trade
26:46 - EU & US Grid Operators Rationing New Plugins
27:30 - Live Show Copenhagen & Wrap-Up🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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War, Oil & Liquidity - What’s Driving Markets Now! | Macro Monday: April 20, 2026
20 april 2026 · 28 min
As the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran falters, bringing oil flows back under pressure, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the geopolitical fallout, from jet fuel shortages to shifting supply dynamics. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Welcome to Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosendvold
01:06 - Is the War Back On? Jet Fuel Shortages and What’s Holding Markets Up
01:55 - Psychedelics Stocks Surge After Trump Executive Order
03:05 - This Week on Real Vision: Geopolitics AMA, Charting Macro, and Jim Bianco
04:24 - Iran Reverses Course and Closes the Strait of Hormuz Again
05:33 - Ship Attacks, Tanker Seizures, and Why the Weekend Escalation Matters
06:06 - Trump, Iran Talks, and the Latest Strait of Hormuz Flow Data
07:14 - Why the US and Western Economies Need Less Oil Than Before
09:20 - Jet Fuel Shortages in Europe: How Serious Is the Risk?
11:24 - Europe’s Flight Crunch and Why Airfares Are Exploding
13:19 - Southern Europe’s Tourism Hit and the Macro Impact of Fewer Flights
14:49 - What Europe’s 2022 Energy Shock Tells Us About Today’s Crisis
16:33 - Why This Energy Disruption Still Looks Manageable
17:36 - Can the Stock Market Rally Continue From Here?
18:04 - Why This Is Still a Hated Rally With Investors Underweight Risk
19:50 - Dollar Liquidity, Fed Reserve Management, and What’s Fueling Markets
22:19 - SLR Reform, Bank Leverage, and the Quiet Driver of the Rally
24:28 - ISM, Regional Fed Surveys, and Why US Growth Still Looks Strong
25:06 - Fed, ECB, and BOE: Are Rate Hikes Now Off the Table?
27:23 - Final Outlook: Talks on Wednesday and a Still-Bullish Macro View🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe
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Iran Talks Collapse: A New Surge in Inflation? | Macro Mondays: April 13, 2026
13 april 2026 · 31 min
Geopolitics is still in focus after failed talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend and President Donald Trump's threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from today. Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the implications of another oil spike, whether it could bring an inflation shock, and what it could mean for risk assets. Lees meer
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Why Markets Are Resilient? | Macro Mondays: April 6, 2026
6 april 2026 · 31 min
As tensions between the U.S. and Iran drive volatility in oil markets and raise fresh inflation concerns, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the implications for global growth, central bank policy, and risk assets. Lees meer
** We apologize for the less-than-optimal audio, Andreas was traveling and will be back in his normal setup next week **
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Risk Isn’t Gone | Macro Mondays: March 30, 2026
30 maart 2026 · 30 min
Steno Research founder and CEO, Andreas Steno, is back with co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, to dive into the latest headlines in macro. As the Iran war enters its fifth week, Andreas and Mikkel analyze a growing disconnect between market pricing and underlying macro risks, identifying key signals that investors may be overlooking. Lees meer
#macro #iran #trump #dollar #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets
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The Real Risk Goes Beyond War | Macro Mondays: March 23, 2026
23 maart 2026 · 31 min
Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host, Steno Research’s head of geopolitics, Mikkel Rosenvold, to break down the latest global drivers in macro. In this episode, with bond yields already rising and central banks under pressure, Andreas and Mikkel assess whether global markets are underpricing the inflation and energy shocks caused by the closure of the Straight of Hormuz. Lees meer
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#macro #iran #trump #dollar #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets
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Markets Confront Iran Risk and Fed Policy | Macro Mondays: March 16, 2026
16 maart 2026 · 30 min
Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold to discuss the growing risks in Iran and what oil supply disruptions could mean for global markets. Plus, they dissect the state of U.S.-China relations and preview a pivotal week for central banks around the world. Lees meer
🔥 And don't forget to check out The Arena, our new trade idea league.
Get in on the action, and you could be eligible for prizes totaling $25,000.
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#macro #iran #trump #dollar #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets
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How High Will Oil Prices Go? | Macro Mondays: March 9, 2026
9 maart 2026 · 32 min
Steno Research founder Andreas Steno is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, the firm's partner and head of geopolitics, to examine the latest news from the Iran war, the surging oil prices and their impact on the wider markets and global economy, U.S. labor data, and other market-moving headlines. Lees meer
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#macro #iran #trump #dollar #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets
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Markets React to War in Iran | Macro Mondays: March 2, 2026
2 maart 2026 · 37 min
Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, to break down how the U.S. and Israel's escalating military action against Iran is impacting markets — from oil to equities and the broader macro regime. Lees meer
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#macro #iran #trump #dollar #bitcointrends #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets #bullish #bearish #etf #ethetf #btcetf #congress #uselections #stablecoins #usdt #usdc #inflation #steno #memes #stocks #equities #unemployment #raoulpal #realvision #fed #sec #ai #conflict #tradewar #creditcrisis #FOMC #silver
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Do Markets Care About Trump’s Tariffs? | Macro Mondays: February 23, 2026
23 februari 2026 · 28 min
Andreas Steno Larsen is back with co-host Mikkel Rosenvold to break down the biggest forces driving markets, from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions to President Trump’s global tariff agenda. They also dive into the latest U.S. economic data, shifting rate expectations, and what the gold-to-bitcoin ratio is signaling. Lees meer
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#macro #venezuela #trump #dollar #bitcointrends #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets #bullish #bearish #etf #ethetf #btcetf #congress #uselections #stablecoins #usdt #usdc #inflation #steno #memes #stocks #equities #unemployment #raoulpal #realvision #fed #sec #ai #conflict #tradewar #creditcrisis #FOMC #silver
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Dalio: "The World Order Has Broken Down"
16 februari 2026 · 29 min
Andreas Steno, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics, on the latest Macro Mondays. They break down what happened at the Munich Security Conference, Ray Dalio's X article on a changing world order, inflation and job reports, and the timeline for the liquidity impact from the Treasury General Account. Lees meer
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#macro #venezuela #trump #dollar #bitcointrends #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets #bullish #bearish #etf #ethetf #btcetf #congress #uselections #stablecoins #usdt #usdc #inflation #steno #memes #stocks #equities #unemployment #raoulpal #realvision #fed #sec #ai #conflict #tradewar #creditcrisis #FOMC #silver
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A Regime Shift in Volatile Times
10 februari 2026 · 28 min
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Oil, Metals, and More Geopolitical Risk | Macro Mondays: Feb. 2, 2026
2 februari 2026 · 30 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research break down the mounting U.S.–Iran tensions, the implications for oil, the U.S.–China decoupling, strategic mineral stockpiles, and supply-chain weaponization. They cover the biggest forces reshaping global markets – including today's surprising ISM print. Lees meer
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#macro #venezuela #trump #dollar #bitcointrends #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets #bullish #bearish #etf #ethetf #btcetf #congress #uselections #stablecoins #usdt #usdc #inflation #steno #memes #stocks #equities #unemployment #raoulpal #realvision #fed #sec #ai #conflict #tradewar #creditcrisis #FOMC #silver
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Rates, Risks, and Reality
26 januari 2026 · 13 min
Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics at Steno Research, breaks down the latest forces driving global markets with insights from the annual World Economic Forum, a preview of this week’s FOMC meeting, and an on-the-ground perspective from Real Vision’s Crypto Gathering in Miami. Lees meer
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#macro #venezuela #trump #dollar #bitcointrends #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets #bullish #bearish #etf #ethetf #btcetf #congress #uselections #stablecoins #usdt #usdc #inflation #steno #memes #stocks #equities #unemployment #raoulpal #realvision #fed #sec #ai #conflict #tradewar #creditcrisis #FOMC #silver
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Europe, Trump & the Limits of Trade Escalation
19 januari 2026 · 29 min
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research break down the macro headlines shaping markets. Discussing Trump’s renewed tariff threats and the geopolitical fallout around Greenland, to rising Japanese yields, and how AI is shifting from hardware to software. Lees meer
☀️ Crypto Gathering Miami 2026: not everyone wants the full conference sprint. That’s why there’s the Social Pass ($300): welcome drinks, beach party, and Drinks with @RaoulGMI LIVE 🍷
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#macro #venezuela #trump #dollar #bitcointrends #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets #bullish #bearish #etf #ethetf #btcetf #congress #uselections #stablecoins #usdt #usdc #inflation #steno #memes #stocks #equities #unemployment #raoulpal #realvision #fed #sec #ai #conflict #tradewar #creditcrisis #greenland
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Open War: Trump Targets the Fed
12 januari 2026 · 31 min
☀️ Crypto Gathering Miami 2026: not everyone wants the full conference sprint. That’s why there’s the Social Pass ($300): welcome drinks, beach party, and Drinks with @RaoulGMI LIVE 🍷
☀️ Right now it’s BOGO... bring a friend or split the cost
☀️ Get it now: https://rvtv.io/49QZAGI Lees meerAndreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down a bombshell start to 2026 as tensions between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration escalate. From Powell’s extraordinary public response to DOJ pressure to what it means for Fed independence, the U.S. dollar, gold, silver, and Bitcoin, Andreas and Mikkel unpack the macro consequences.
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#macro #venezuela #trump #dollar #bitcointrends #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets #bullish #bearish #etf #ethetf #btcetf #congress #uselections #stablecoins #usdt #usdc #inflation #steno #memes #stocks #equities #unemployment #raoulpal #realvision #fed #sec #ai #conflict #tradewar #creditcrisis #FOMC
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New Year, New Geopolitical Shockwaves
5 januari 2026 · 31 min
The first Macro Mondays of 2026 kicks off with global markets already on edge. Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the dramatic developments in Venezuela, the implications for oil markets, and what this signals about U.S. foreign policy momentum heading into the year. Lees meer
A volatile start to 2026 as geopolitics, oil, and liquidity collide.
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Year-End Macro Wrap
22 december 2025 · 28 min
It’s the final Macro Monday show of 2025…! Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research are here to recap what we learned after a volatile year in global markets — and what they’re preparing for in 2026. Lees meer
From the entire team at Real Vision, have a happy holidays — we’ll see you in 2026!
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Are AI Stocks in Danger?
15 december 2025 · 30 min
Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest headlines after another tough week for markets. From private credit to Japanese bonds, the guys explore what's causing the continuation of a selloff. Lees meer
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All Eyes on Rate Cuts?
8 december 2025 · 30 min
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What's Going on with JPY Carry Trade?
1 december 2025 · 30 min
Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen and partner & head of geopolitics Mikkel Rosenvold return for another edition of Macro Mondays. Andreas and Mikkel begin by breaking down the latest figures from Black Friday and just what's going on with the current drawdown. Lees meer
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Will the Fed Cut in December?
24 november 2025 · 27 min
Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest news and forces driving global markets after another tough week for markets. Lees meer
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Fed Cuts Coming or Crisis Brewing?
17 november 2025 · 28 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research break down the latest news and trends driving the latest drawdown in global risk assets. They dig into the unfinished China trade deal, persistent liquidity pressures, and whether this all sets the stage for a Fed rate cut in December. Lees meer
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The Printer Is Coming
10 november 2025 · 30 min
Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, and Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, are back to break down the latest macro news and market drivers after a brutal week for risk assets. Lees meer
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Is China Winning the Trade War?
3 november 2025 · 28 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research dissect the latest macro news and trends driving global markets. The Fed cut rates as expected, but was Powell’s hawkish tone a surprise? Lees meer
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The Tariff Battle Heats Up
27 oktober 2025 · 29 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research unpack the renewed tariff talks with China and Canada, fresh inflation data shaking market expectations, and the other key macro forces impacting your portfolio decisions. Lees meer
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Are We in an AI Bubble?
21 oktober 2025 · 31 min
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research are back to break down whether we’re entering a new AI bubble, what the Fed’s next move means for markets, and why retail investors are driving the rally while institutions hesitate Lees meer
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