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SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver
22 november 2025 · 1 uur 17 min
Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK
01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?
03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective
04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle
09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing
11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends
13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from
18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing
25:45 - How often to re-fit m…
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UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge
19 november 2025 · 1 uur 4 min
Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow David on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.
00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.
00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.
00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.
00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.
00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.
00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.
00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.
00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.
00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buy…
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SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski
15 november 2025 · 59 min
What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston
02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need
04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data
05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend
08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity
10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change
12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds
15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year
20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and wh…
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GM91: Inside China’s Growth Dilemma ft. George Magnus
12 november 2025 · 1 uur 1 min
China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow George on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Opening and disclaimer
02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus
06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly
11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base
16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing
22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects
25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs
27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt
29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences
33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China tactics
38:01 …
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SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git
8 november 2025 · 1 uur 3 min
What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation’s return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market? Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion
00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX’s push to fund young talent
00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November
00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions
00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”
00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms
00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity
00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices?
00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bond…
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GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan
5 november 2025 · 1 uur 11 min
Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction
03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles
08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes
13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets
20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system
27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation
34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk
41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Dri…
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OI19 BONUS: Living With Ed Seykota ft. David Druz
3 november 2025 · 41 min
Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn’t. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Introduction to part 2
02:57 - Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota
06:46 - The best trader the world has ever seen
17:13 - The optimal bed size
21:24 - What Druz learned from working with Seykota
24:42 - Key lessons for managing drawdowns
26:54 - How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota
31:58 - Living with Ed Seykota
34:16 - Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie mania
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together s…
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SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas
1 november 2025 · 59 min
As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It’s about how products scale, and how ideas hold. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick
01:16 - Nick’s quick life update and setting the tone
02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 2025
04:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds
06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback
07:32 - What’s working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts
08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion
10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones
11:55 - How QIS differs and why it’s opaque from the outside
14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats
18:05 - Wh…
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OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz
29 oktober 2025 · 1 uur 37 min
Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota’s first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn’t just how he traded - it’s why he stayed silent, and why he’s speaking now. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Read more about David.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:11 - Introduction to Dave Druz
13:50 - Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation
19:14 - How did Druz discover trend following?
23:57 - The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy
28:08 - Who wins and loses in the markets?
37:37 - Determining hedging flows in commodity markets
41:03 - Managing money in trend following
43:40 - How does Druz size a position and get out of it?
45:16 - Coping with a high level of volatility
50:2…
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SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan
25 oktober 2025 · 1 uur 17 min
Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series
00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich
00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk
00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules
00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following
00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens
00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust
00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends
00:22:43 – Impact and ref…
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UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan
22 oktober 2025 · 1 uur 7 min
Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and introductions
01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI
03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades
14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies
21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity
32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations
39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers
44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility
56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts
01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimers
Copyright © 2026 …
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SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne
18 oktober 2025 · 1 uur 2 min
Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today’s apparent stability is masking tomorrow’s risk. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:32 - Introduction to our special guest
01:57 - How did the economy end up the way it is today?
09:15 - Is it just a cycle?
19:46 - What is the end game?
23:47 - A short masterclass on skew and convexity
31:45 - How trend following has changed over time
39:18 - Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective?
45:19 - How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs
53:04 - Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities
56:06 - When will we revert to a more "normal" environment?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC…
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GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld
15 oktober 2025 · 1 uur 1 min
Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Read more about Maurice here.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld
05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?
11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?
18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar
27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?
29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?
34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?
36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically
39:16 - A for…
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SI369: Liquidity, Leverage, and the End of Safety ft. Mark Rzepczynski
11 oktober 2025 · 1 uur 17 min
Gold is ripping, but it’s not about inflation. It’s about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we’ve long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend followers chase edge in crowded markets, Mark offers a glimpse into what comes next: networks, feedback loops, and systems that learn - until they break. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:34 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:43 - Is this time different for gold?
14:13 - Just a gold story?
16:38 - Should we redefine the definition of safe assets?
19:45 - The Fed has to change
26:08 - An overbearing uncertainty
30:25 - Our thoughts on meme stocks
35:30 - Not every innovations are good
39:02 - How narratives impact how products are sold
46:21 - Industry performance update
49:39 - Alternative vs traditional assets
01:00:43 - Every CTA is a short term trader
01:05:59 - The power of seeing the connection between markets
01:14:32 - What is …
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GM88: Cycles of Promise and Pain: Argentina’s Unfinished Lesson ft. Nicolas Dujovne
8 oktober 2025 · 59 min
Argentina’s history is one of recurring promises and painful resets. Nicolas Dujovne has lived that cycle from the inside, serving as Finance Minister during a rare attempt at fiscal repair before markets and politics turned against it. Now, as CIO of Tenac Asset Management, he reflects with Alan Dunne on why economic reform so often falters, how short-term pain fuels long-term instability, and what it would take to finally break the trap. Beyond Argentina, the discussion widens to emerging markets at large - their hard-won stability, the new risks born of geopolitics and demographics, and the shifting fault lines of globalization. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Read more about Nicolas.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:24 - Introduction to Nicolas Dujovne
05:32 - Key reflections from Dujovne's former role as ministry of Treasury in Argentina
11:43 - How dollarization could change the overall dynamic of the economy
14:52 - How Dujovne's role as minister has shaped his investment process
16:56 - The state and outlook of emerging markets
21:13 - The relationship between central banks and emerging markets
23:33 - How the current globalization impact the investing landscape
27:43 - Evaluating the U.S from the lens of an emerging market investor
33:25 - How markets resp…
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SI368: Valuation Has Left the Room ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne
4 oktober 2025 · 1 uur 5 min
Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to chart a market running on more than just momentum. Beneath the surface: a structural liquidity engine, political incentives aligned with asset reflation, and a surge in non-correlated flows reshaping risk itself. As institutions scramble to catch up and volatility begins to rise with price, Cem draws on lessons from the late 90s to explain why the real story is not about valuation - but positioning. From AI’s misunderstood impact to the growing role of options, gold, and crypto, this is a portrait of a regime defined not by fundamentals, but by reflex and constraint. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alan on X
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:00 - Industry performance update
03:07 - Are current valuations a sign of a bubble?
12:13 - The importance of reflexivity
18:59 - The move towards non correlation is upon us
22:55 - What is driving up asset prices?
26:34 - When will the supply/demand imbalance normalize?
31:56 - Reaching an uncontrollable situation
35:47 - What are markets showing us about options?
39:38 - Precious metals is the place to be
42:26 - Is AI actually the game changer that we all expect it to be?
52:07 - Will better technology = better performance?
56:03 - A timelin…
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IL42: Redefining Sovereignty in a Borderless Financial System ft. Zoe Liu
1 oktober 2025 · 1 uur 3 min
China’s trade surplus with the US remains stubbornly large, but its appetite for Treasuries is fading. So where are the dollars going, and what does that say about the country’s evolving financial strategy? Kevin Coldiron welcomes back Dr. Zoe Liu for a nuanced look at how Beijing is managing external pressure, internal control, and the creeping disruption of dollar-backed stablecoins. Behind the headlines is a deeper story about surveillance, capital flight, and the boundaries of monetary sovereignty. As China builds shadow reserves and experiments with programmable money, the question isn’t just what it fears it’s what kind of system it’s trying to build instead. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Zoe on Twitter and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:11 - Introduction to Zoe Liu
04:15 - How U.S tariffs impact shipping costs and the deficit with China
17:27 - What is China actually doing with their earned dollars?
27:52 - Are FX entrusted loans reinforcing the dollar based trading system?
36:07 - What are stable coins and why are China worried about them?
42:31 - The second level of threat of stable coins
49:08 - How would a Hong Kong dollar backed stable coin look like?
54:37 - Are stable coins actually stable in Hong Kong or Chi…
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SI367: Portfolio Design in a Distorted World ft. Andrew Beer
27 september 2025 · 1 uur 7 min
Equities are up more than 50% since the April lows, yet the world feels anything but stable. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Andrew Beer examine the widening disconnect between market behavior and the backdrop it’s unfolding against. From drone incursions over Denmark to political fragmentation and a rising tolerance for systemic risk, they explore why nothing seems to break - and what that complacency might be masking. Along the way, they unpack Bouchard’s inelastic market hypothesis, CalPERS’ pivot toward Total Portfolio thinking, and the structural trade-offs inside multi-strat hedge funds. It's a conversation about signals in the noise - and the quiet shifts that could reshape the landscape. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:38 - The tension between talents
11:08 - Is the popularity of certain alternative strategies just a sign of the times?
22:07 - Industry performance update
27:46 - Q1, Michael: Why shouldn't I sell Andrew's product when it's outperforming single managers and vise versa?
30:15 - The evolution of replication strategy performance
37:44 - The storytelling behind hedge fund losses
41:04 - Do all markets have the ability to trend?
48:57 - The rise of multi s…
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UGO06: Democratizing the Asymmetric Trade ft. Vlad Tenev
24 september 2025 · 41 min
Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood joins Cem Karsan at the Hood Summit in Las Vegas, for a timely conversation about the shifting edge in markets. From memories of hyperinflation in Bulgaria to unlocking tools once reserved for institutions, Vlad outlines how Robinhood is positioning retail for a different kind of market regime. Futures, short selling, 24-hour options, AI-driven trade simulation, and embedded social features aren’t just upgrades - they’re signals. With market structure evolving and a historic wealth transfer underway, this episode captures a platform staking its claim on the next generation of capital allocators - and the volatility they’ll inherit. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:27 - Introduction to Vlad Tenev
05:11 - Big announcements from Robinhood
09:15 - Tenev's favorite commodities
12:13 - Lets talk about options!
18:20 - How AI can benefit options trading
21:56 - Short selling is coming to Robinhood
25:44 - The path to making Robinhood more resilient
28:02 - The great transfer of wealth
31:17 - How Robinhood differentiates themselves from other platforms
33:35 - Creating a broader army
37:23 - What is Robinhood most excited for going forward?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever …
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SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver
20 september 2025 · 1 uur 2 min
Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, Rob and Niels unpack why strong performance often coexists with poor investor outcomes - and how timing, not strategy, remains the silent killer. They question the recent push into trend by asset management giants, weigh whether CTA underperformance marks a structural shift or a familiar cycle, and examine what the data can and can’t tell us when conviction fades. If there’s a theme this week, it’s simple: knowing what works is not the same as using it well. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:14 - What has been on our radar recently?
12:09 - Industry performance update
19:23 - Q1, John: What are your recommendations for adapting a continuous forecast-based position sizing for a cash-only portfolio?
23:15 - Q2, Absolute: Is short/long symmetry optimal for a strategy in which the price of the traded instruments is measured in units (fiat currencies) that are inflated (devalued)?
30:19 - Q3, Lin: Got any ideas for trading a crypto portfolio?
32:04 - Why investors are losing money on 42% gain ETFs
39:50 - The difference between percentage return and cash return
43…
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ALO31: What If the Illiquidity Premium Was Never Real? ft. Richard Tomlinson
17 september 2025 · 1 uur 4 min
Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clarity with which he navigates complexity. From the fading utility of labels like “illiquidity premium” and “hedge fund” to the trade-offs between cost, alignment, and control, this episode is about building portfolios that work in the real world - not just in a model. They explore inflation’s structural drivers, the quiet rise of fiscal dominance, and why some of the industry’s most comfortable assumptions no longer hold. It’s not about being contrarian - it’s about being clear-eyed. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Richard on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Introduction to Richard Tomlinson
07:07 - What makes Tomlinson and LPPI stand out from their peers?
11:52 - Who are LPPI's clients?
13:26 - The investment philosophy behind LPPI's work
18:06 - How LPPI's allocators work together
19:05 - Getting the allocation right
21:29 - Are they worried about the decline of equities?
23:37 - Tomlinson perspective on global macro
26:55 - Public vs private markets
29:05 - Their approach to allocating domestically
31:15 - How their allocation is distributed
33…
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SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski
13 september 2025 · 56 min
Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today’s landscape, from the Fed’s looming decision to Europe’s bond jitters, from gas and power’s outsized role in recent Alternative CTA returns to the risks of crowding. It’s a clear-eyed discussion about how systematic strategies evolve - and why dispersion matters. Lees meer
Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:12 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:44 - Industry performance update
12:01 - How different can managers really be in the trend following space?
22:30 - Is Andrew Beer onto something about the sharpe ratio of trend indices?
24:26 - Why Katy and Alex are obsessed with return dispersion
30:34 - What drives dispersion the most?
32:41 - Designing a trend following benchmark
35:46 - Quantifying turbulence in CTAs
39:46 - The importance of simplicity as a CTA
42:30 - Every asset is an opportunit…
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GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong
10 september 2025 · 1 uur 5 min
Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a different risk: a slow-burning inflation that’s quietly taking hold. Anna breaks down why tariffs haven’t hit as expected, how AI is already reshaping the labor force, and what’s really driving service-sector price pressures. Beyond the data, the conversation turns to Fed culture, the limits of independence, and what a Trump-aligned central bank might mean in practice. Less about what’s forecast - more about what’s misunderstood. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Anna on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Anna Wong
03:57 - The current state of Fed
06:35 - A potential flare up in inflation
16:19 - Wong's read on the labour market
22:50 - Fed's inflation argument makes no sense
28:59 - The outlook of the housing market
31:15 - Is AI destroying the labour market?
34:20 - The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates
40:10 - The Fed is losing its balance
48:43 - How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed
51:58 - How monetary policy will unfold going forward
54:43 - How we achieve a healthy level of debt and growth…
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SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert
6 september 2025 · 1 uur 12 min
What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic strategies. They explore what diversification really means, why manager size shapes more than just capacity, and how incentives - both fees and institutional expectations - quietly reshape the industry. From carbon markets and copper dislocations to volatility suppression and position sizing, this is an episode about alignment: between strategy and structure, manager and mandate, risk and resilience. At a time when most portfolios still rely on the familiar, this is a case for what’s missing. Lees meer
And you can get your free copy of the recent paper from DUNN Capital here!
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:34 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:26 - Industry performance update
13:20 - Building the perfect portfolio composition
17:18 - Insights on carbon markets
21:39 - Should we start to rethink how we approach markets?
28:54 - Removing complexities from a trend system
34:02 - The key aspects of designing a trend system
47:27 - More diversified = more risk?
49:00 - What is the most Valuable Alternative Investment?
57:50 - Is trend f…
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IL41: They’re Not Just Reading You... They’re Rewriting You ft. Sandra Matz
3 september 2025 · 1 uur 1 min
What if knowing you isn’t the end goal... but shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces don’t just predict our behavior - they influence it. They unpack how personalization narrows possibility, why convenience can come at the cost of resilience, and what happens when machines learn to mirror us better than we mirror each other. From the false promise of data consent to the quiet collapse of complexity, this is a conversation about power, psychology, and the systems quietly remaking the human experience. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Sandra on LinkedIn and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Introduction to Sandra Matz
08:22 - How data is a window into our psychology
12:13 - What is the "right" benchmark?
14:12 - How algorithms learn to understand who you are
19:11 - Do algorithms care about your feelings?
22:16 - The "basic bitch" effect
25:10 - Computers can learn your personality from a picture of your face
32:01 - How the power of algorithms can be used in a positive way
40:17 - A framework for avoiding the negatives of collecting personal data
44:06 - Solving the complex challenges of cookies (not the ones…
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SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas
30 augustus 2025 · 1 uur
As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn’t about chasing performance, but protecting against path? This is a conversation about design over style, clarity over convention, and the quiet decisions that shape real outcomes. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:50 - Catching up
05:02 - Industry performance update
13:18 - How the speed of trend following strategies is changing
24:13 - Is there a way to define speed differently?
32:19 - Do we have the right definition of a trend index?
38:20 - Brainstorming ideas on how to improve trend following benchmarks
43:50 - The best car needs the best brakes
49:26 - Baltas framework for enhancing trend following performance
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover ke…
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OI18: The Carbon Trade, Without the Illusion ft. Mike Azlen
27 augustus 2025 · 48 min
Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated markets that deliver real emissions cuts by design, not intention. They unpack how cap-and-trade channels profit into abatement, why moral hazard plagues the voluntary space, and where long-only investors can find a real risk premium. From structural inefficiencies to measurable impact, this is a conversation about aligning incentives with outcomes - in a market where price isn’t just a signal, but a lever. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Introduction to Mike Azlen
04:00 - What are Carbon Markets and how do they function?
13:32 - How Carbon Markets work in different countries
16:35 - The complexities of carbon offsets - viable or just a scam?
21:58 - Is Carbon Capture a viable solution to the climate crisis?
25:44 - Why is there a risk premium in compliance carbon markets?
29:31 - The difference between spot and physical permits
32:35 - Why is the funding premium so large in California?
33:49 - The investment philosophy behind Carbon Cap Management
36:56 - It's all in the EUAs
40:50 - The positive impact of Carbon Cap Management
45…
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SI362: The Alpha Most Systems Miss ft. Yoav Git
23 augustus 2025 · 1 uur 8 min
Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizons create pockets of alpha most models miss, and how breakout behavior in commodity spreads signals more than noise. Drawing on a recent Bank of England study, Yoav explains how different participants leave distinct footprints on the FX curve, and why CTAs, far from being passive allocators, can act as dynamic responders to changing regimes. This is systematic trading, without the shorthand. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:10 - Industry performance update
09:20 - Dont just trend it, curve it
16:33 - The drivers of spread
23:26 - Breaking markets into factors
26:37 - Mastering speed in spread trades
31:39 - Is there too much money in trend?
36:47 - Key insights into FX trading
44:23 - How dealers and market makers approach risk differently
47:28 - The thought provoking fact about the top 5% dealers and market makers
50:23 - The real process of an allocator
56:39 - Using trend as part of a long term strategy
01:01:35 - You should just go play golf
01:04:21 - The …
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GM86: Everyone’s Watching the Fed. The Real Story’s Somewhere Else. ft. Louis Vincent-Gave
20 augustus 2025 · 1 uur
Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum along... propped up by AI euphoria and the illusion of fiscal permanence. In this conversation with Alan Dunne, Louis questions whether investors grasp the shifting ground beneath their feet: from rising tariff walls to energy fragility, from the quiet restructuring of China’s financial system to the early signals of capital rotation into emerging markets. If this is a transition phase, most portfolios aren’t built for what comes next. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Louis on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave
03:45 - Gave's analysis of the current economic data
09:45 - What causes the weakening of the economy?
11:54 - The outlook for tariffs - will they eventually become stable?
16:16 - The future for inflation - will it become more persistent over time?
20:43 - The risk factors of energy markets
25:51 - Will we see a Fed cut in September?
26:58 - Powell - in or out?
31:13 - We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar
38:26 - The outcome of the AI revolution
43:03 - Deficits are like tequila shots
46:55 - We start…
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SI361: The Four Faces of Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan
15 augustus 2025 · 1 uur 27 min
Richard Brennan joins Niels for a conversation that redefines how trend following is understood. Behind the shared language lie four distinct archetypes - each built around a different purpose. Richard walks through them with clarity, then unpacks the trade-offs: static sizing vs. vol targeting, symmetry vs. asymmetry, speed vs. patience. A real-world portfolio test drives the point home... some strategies don’t just prefer diversification, they depend on it. This episode is about design, but more than that, it’s about alignment. Because in a field crowded with performance metrics, the most important question often goes unasked: what exactly is this built to do? Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:58 - ChatGPT5 is on fire
06:04 - The AI revolution could be the end of humanity
14:23 - Industry performance update
19:19 - An overview of what topics this episode will cover
21:23 - The decisions that really matter in trend following
27:10 - The 4 archetypes of trend following
34:05 - Its not about facts, its about objectives
40:09 - 1st debate: Diversification vs. concentration
48:52 - 2nd debate: Absolute momentum vs. cross-sectional momentum
50:21 - 3rd debate: Volatility targeting vs static small bits
54:02 - What trend followers sometim…
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UGO05: Volatility’s Blueprint: How Markets Really Move ft. Mandy Xu & Ed Tom
13 augustus 2025 · 55 min
From the first futures in 1848 to today’s zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market’s periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe’s new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024’s “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility’s inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market’s next move before price does. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
59:42 - Introduction to the series
02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going?
10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool
18:55 - The history of the VIX index
23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon
26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025)
35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets
42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options
50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge options
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 …
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SI360: The Fed, the Fiction, and the Fight for Control ft. Alan Dunne
9 augustus 2025 · 1 uur 5 min
When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed’s playbook no longer fits the moment. Behind the scenes, hedge fund power brokers position themselves to shape what comes next. Plus, an unvarnished look at trend following’s drawdown, the lazy critiques making the rounds, and why so many allocators still miss the point. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?
08:53 - Dunne's global macro overview
13:31 - Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated?
17:52 - The Fed is under threat from multiple angles
21:38 - Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman
26:43 - An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed
32:35 - Industry performance update
37:30 - Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following
43:35 - Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place?
45:40 - Has Dunn…
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IL40: Why the Economy Feels Broken... Even When It’s Growing ft. Diane Coyle
6 augustus 2025 · 57 min
What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today’s value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seeing - one that captures time, trust, and the real foundations of growth. The question isn’t how fast we’re moving. It’s whether we’re measuring the right road. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Diane on X and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 - Introduction to Diane Coyle
03:55 - How did the current systems of national accounts came to be?
06:55 - Why the national statistics doesn't add up
11:22 - The underlying problems of GDP
18:42 - How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity
23:25 - The challenges of cloud computing
26:39 - What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic statistics?
33:35 - The importance of considering time as a variable in economic statistics
38:38 - How technological innovations can mess up our ability to measure GDP
40:45 - Coyle's frame…
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SI359: Trend Following in a World That Loves Bubbles ft. Mark Rzepczynski
2 augustus 2025 · 1 uur 9 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:15 - What has caught our attention recently?
09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence
10:43 - Industry performance update
14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance
21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends?
23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare
26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today
36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins
43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted
53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor?
58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity
01:01:10 - Key observations from…
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GM85: What If the Real Risk Isn’t Recession — But Reinvention? ft. Steven Bell
30 juli 2025 · 1 uur 8 min
Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Steven on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell
05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?
10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?
13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?
16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it
21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data
24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity
28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation
32:15 - Do deficits even matter?
36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?
44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell?
45:11 - An…
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SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer
26 juli 2025 · 1 uur 13 min
Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn,
Episode TimeStamps:
01:52 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:11 - Industry performance update
07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment
09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper
14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk
17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies
22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed?
28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?
33:35 - The structure of an allocator
36:12 - How…
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TTU150: Scarcity, Security, and the Shift to Soil ft. Artem Milinchuk
23 juli 2025 · 1 uur 6 min
What happens when an overlooked asset becomes essential? Artem Milinchuk returns to share how farmland, long seen as niche... is quietly stepping into the center of long-term portfolios. He and Niels discuss what’s changed since 2020: rising inflation, tighter capital, a demographic handoff reshaping land ownership, and how tech is altering both the economics and culture of agriculture. This isn’t about chasing yield. It’s about owning what endures. From almonds to avocados, tariffs to treasuries, and legacy to liquidity, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at an asset class rooted in necessity, and poised for relevance. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Artem on X.
Check out these resources about farmland investing
Episode Timestamps:
02:24 - A recap on our previous conversation
06:22 - What has changed about their strategy since our last conversation (in 2020)?
10:28 - How does farmland investing actually generate income?
12:32 - How does farmland investing work and operate?
15:28 - Geopolitical volatility - How FarmTogether deals with tariffs
19:00 - How different types of crops carries different types of risk
23:22 - A deep dive into the volatility behind farmland investing
27:40 - What is a fair level of volatility to expect from farmland investing?
30:49 - The tech …
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SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan
19 juli 2025 · 1 uur 30 min
As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:19 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!
05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it
07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth
08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration
11:01 - Industry performance update
13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?
24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment
30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?
32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us?
41:21 - Is…
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UGO04: CNBC Legend on the Price of Losing Price ft. Rick Santelli
16 juli 2025 · 44 min
Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not just by technology or policy, but by the loss of honest signals. They cover the Fed’s shift from restraint to control, the unintended consequences of zero rates, and why housing, credit, and the long bond may be nearing a breaking point. This isn’t a retrospective. It’s a clear warning from someone who’s seen what happens when incentives go unchecked. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Rick on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:02 - Introduction to the UGO series
01:26 - Introduction to Rick Santelli
05:16 - The first trade Santelli ever made
06:32 - The historical performance of gold
08:39 - Why did Santelli move to interest rates?
10:28 - How technology impacts the way we invest
13:30 - A shadow Fed president
14:46 - How Alan Greenspan changed everything
18:47 - We are starting to pay the price of overspending
22:04 - Money printing - a daisy chain of a closed circuit
23:50 - How do we get out of debt and how does it end?
29:06 - How do you invest wisely in today's economy?
36:48 - Cost of credit: The lurking financial threat
39:03 - How young people shoul…
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SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski
12 juli 2025 · 1 uur 4 min
Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren’t. This episode isn’t about defending trend - it’s about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we’re getting closer. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:48 - What has been on our radar recently?
07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper
09:45 - Industry performance update
14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures?
23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment
31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key
33:57 - A better alternative trend following?
37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry
44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes
53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate
58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication
59:33…
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ALO30: The Quiet Rewire of Portfolio Construction ft. Cian Walsh
9 juli 2025 · 1 uur 4 min
Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are all in flux. He explains why the 60/40 model obscures more than it reveals, how he is adapting institutional frameworks for thousands of private clients, and what changes when you view hedge funds not as a bucket, but as a function. From the discipline of sizing trend in a sideways regime to the slow shift from vintage private credit to evergreen, this is a conversation about building portfolios that can hold together when the ground moves. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Cian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:12 - Introduction to Cian Walsh
05:30 - How does institutional asset allocation stand out?
06:39 - Asset allocation in a shifting regime
09:33 - A move towards mass customization
10:26 - The 60/40 portfolio is dying - what is next?
13:28 - The challenges of implementing a total portfolio approach
17:16 - Dealing with underperforming strategies
20:09 - More growth or more all-weather?
23:30 - Why Walsh believes in systematic trading
28:51 - Do Walsh hold any long volatility strategies?
30:04 - Walsh's process for selecting managers
36:55 - Ma…
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SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne
5 juli 2025 · 46 min
Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today’s trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. With fresh research in hand, they ask whether drawdowns are misunderstood, if diversification has become an illusion, and why clarity often emerges only after the pain. We do recognize that we had some technical issues with this recording and appreciate you for sticking with us. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:38 - Industry performance update
07:38 - Is trend thriving?
09:57 - Dunne's global macro overview
16:33 - A catastrophic year for the dollar
18:12 - Is this time different for trend following drawdowns?
27:26 - The value of long term track records
34:30 - Is trend following flawed?
37:48 - What are investors actually interested in?
44:32 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... her…
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OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar
2 juli 2025 · 1 uur 9 min
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG Capital connects with clients and prospective investors. In the second part of the conversation, Asam and Moritz speak about AG Capital’s style of trading, how they position size, why they take concentrated positions, how their methods differ from those of systematic trend following funds, and what their current long-term and short-term investment themes are, touching on gold, Bitcoin, copper, natural gas, and some other markets. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital
06:48 - What defines a great hedge fund?
12:13 - How do you find clients as a hedge fund?
18:32 - Creating world class in-house operations
25:32 - Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios
35:05 - How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower
39:16 - Why Ghaffar enforces a fixed number of positions
41:40 - What is so cool about stocks?
46:16 - Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure
51:36 - How Ghaffar approaches gold
54:05 -…
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SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver
28 juni 2025 · 1 uur 13 min
With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught out attention recently?
01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable
02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules
05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy
07:33 - Industry performance update
16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?
27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following
37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combi…
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GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott
25 juni 2025 · 1 uur 15 min
Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor scarcity, and immigration limits are quietly rewiring the system. Inflation may not fall the way people expect. Profit margins may not hold. And capital may start flowing away from the US for the first time in a generation. This isn’t a cycle call. It’s a question of what kind of economy we are becoming—and whether portfolios built for the past can survive what’s coming. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Bob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:58 - Revisiting the Income Driven Expansion
12:30 - Inflation Dynamics and Economic Policy
15:31 - The Dynamics of Labor and Immigration
27:58 - Strategic Decoupling and Its Implications
32:04 - The Economic Implications of Manufacturing in China
42:13 - Economic Growth and Market Dynamics
48:28 - The Evolving Landscape of Investment Strategies
53:25 - Understanding Alpha Strategies and Portfolio Diversification
01:01:10 - The Dynamics of Hedge Fund Strategies and Correlation
01:09:34 - Global Macro Trends and Financial Decoupling
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready..…
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SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git
21 juni 2025 · 1 uur 8 min
Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlook strategies that offer the most structural value. Through a series of new research papers, they examine how negative correlation, volatility, and capital efficiency can outweigh standalone performance, and why trend following continues to challenge conventional assumptions. It’s a conversation about construction over conviction, contribution over headline returns, and the gap between what improves a portfolio and what investors are willing to own. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - Introduction and latest update
07:57 - Trend Following score card
12:38 - Latest paper from R.G. Niederhoffer
26:45 - Latest insights from Quantica Capital
36:55 - Review of Soc Gen's latest report on the state of the CTA Industry
44:52 - The Science and Practice of Trend-following Systems paper by Artur Sepp
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI353: From Tariffs to Trends
LINK SI353: Keeping up with the Trend-Followers
LINK SI353: The Science & Practice of Trend-Following Systems
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whene…
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GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen
18 juni 2025 · 1 uur 2 min
Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less by challengers abroad than by fractures at home. They explore how rising debt, political entropy, and institutional strain are converging in ways that markets are only beginning to price. From the quiet retreat of safe haven flows to the uneasy future of central bank independence, this is a conversation about slow shifts with fast consequences, and what happens when credibility, not currency, becomes the liability. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Barry on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:09 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen
03:51 - The Future of the Dollar: Concerns and Predictions
14:29 - Fiscal Challenges and Policy Responses
33:04 - Analyzing Economic Policies and Their Impacts
49:18 - Global Economic Perspectives: Trade Wars and Currency Alternatives
56:46 - The Future of Global Currency Systems
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries …
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SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas
14 juni 2025 · 1 uur 4 min
Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, the challenge isn’t just strategy design — it’s deciding what still counts as signal. They explore how systematic managers are rethinking volatility targets, why certain constraints persist in institutional portfolios, and what recent underperformance may actually be revealing. This episode is less about solutions than about orientation: how to stay aligned when the tools evolve faster than the terrain, and when conviction must coexist with doubt. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:01 - Introduction to Systematic Investing
02:11 - The Impact of AI and Machine Learning on Data Analysis
07:05 - The Impact of AI on Education and Examination Policies
12:06 - Transitioning Perspectives on Democracy and Markets
21:49 - Dynamic Volatility Targeting in Portfolio Management
24:24 - Exploring Volatility and Leverage
29:50 - Understanding Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics
36:29 - Exploring Investment Constraints and Strategies
45:04 - Rethinking Investment Constraints
49:36 - Strategic Allocations and Market Timing
56:11 - Market Dynamics and Tren…
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UGO03: This Isn’t 2008. That’s the Problem ft. Benn Eifert
11 juni 2025 · 46 min
Back on the Cboe floor, Cem Karsan sits down with Benn Eifert to trace the fault lines shaping today’s volatility regime. They dig into why market structure, not just macro, is driving outcomes... from the reflexive cycles of implied vol to the growing influence of structured product flows and zero-day options. With correlations breaking down and dispersion rising, Benn makes the case that path matters more than magnitude. It’s a conversation about what happens when liquidity fragments, when the Fed can’t step in, and when legacy playbooks stop working. Quietly technical, deeply contextual, this one rewards a careful listen. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:11 - Introduction... setting the stage
03:01 - Understanding Options and Market Dynamics
09:47 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Administration
11:41 - Market Volatility and Structural Changes in Trading
19:00 - The Impact of Structural Changes on Market Volume
26:13 - Understanding Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation
30:23 - The Impact of Interest Rates on Investment Strategies
34:21 - Understanding Zero DTE Options and Their Market Impact
39:50 - Economic Outlook: Tariffs and Interest Rates
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... her…
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SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan
7 juni 2025 · 1 uur 9 min
As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who focus on standalone market behavior and those who manage trend as a portfolio-level phenomenon, and explain why that distinction now matters more than ever. From the ripple effects of tariff policy to the quiet fragility in institutional positioning, this episode traces how structural shifts are colliding with legacy assumptions. Also on the table: AI’s growing role in model development, the hidden costs of bad data, and what it really takes to build a resilient, scalable process in a world where noise is cheap and conviction is rare. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing
03:55 - The Shift Towards AI in Trading
11:25 - The Rise of Idiosyncratic Trend Following Post-2020
21:42 - The Impact of Recent Market Dynamics
25:39 - The Rise of Retail Trading in Futures
34:09 - The Panama Method of Historical Adjustments
42:32 - Understanding Backtesting and Data Integrity in Trading Models
47:36 - Navigating Capital Constraints in Trend Following
55:14 - Understanding AI in Trading Strategies
01:00:14 - The Cha…