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OI16: Return Stacking: Form, Function & Friction ft. Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler
4 juni 2025 · 1 uur 7 min
Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler joins to unpack the mechanics of stacking returns inside an ETF — not as a branding exercise, but as a way to navigate the hard constraints of scale, structure, and investor behavior. They break down how Return Stacked blends top-down replication with a bottom-up trend engine, why most investors misunderstand what replication actually captures, and where the fault lines lie between mutual funds and ETFs. From margin management and bid-offer spreads to the limits of liquidity in a product built for growth, this conversation surfaces what it really means to package active strategies for a public wrapper — and what gets lost, or found, in the process. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - Introduction to Corey Hoffstein & Adam Butler
09:06 - How Hoffstein and Butler see the trend following industry going forward
12:24 - The possibilities and constraints of trading ETFs
20:52 - The philosophy behind their trading strategy
27:26 - How they calibrate their model to accommodate markets changes
32:03 - How they incorporate replication in their strategy
35:50 - Their process behind capturing beta
46:42 - The benefits of adding a longer tail for markets
49:25 - How much volatility can trend followers tolerate?
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SI350: Why All Roads Lead to Higher Yields ft. Alan Dunne
31 mei 2025 · 1 uur 5 min
Why are markets still priced as if the old world is coming back? Alan Dunne and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine the case for structurally higher yields — not as a risk, but as the regime. Drawing from Alan’s recent writing, they trace how debt levels, policy incentives, and investor complacency have converged into a feedback loop that central banks may no longer control. From Japan’s bond signals to the quiet retreat of fiscal discipline in the U.S., this episode maps a shift that’s already underway. For investors still relying on yesterday’s models, the risk isn’t missing the turn...it’s not seeing that we’ve already made it. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing
10:52 - Global Macro Picture: All Roads Lead to Higher Yields
17:26 - The Evolution of Economic Policy and Debt Dynamics
29:55 - The Influence of Economic Policies on Inflation and Growth
40:13 - Market Trends and Investor Sentiment Survey
45:08 - Navigating Market Expectations and Historical Trends
59:34 - The Importance of Diversification in Investment Strategies
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics t…
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IL39: Is Trump Making Europe Great Again? ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
28 mei 2025 · 56 min
We're diving deep into some serious discussions about the shifting dynamics in Europe, particularly how the political landscape, especially with Trump's influence, is shaking things up. Economists Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels who authored a compelling book on the New World Economy, argue that Trump's policies might actually be a wake-up call for Europe, pushing it to innovate and stand on its own. We explore the concept of multi-globalization, where emerging markets are stepping into the spotlight as global trade partners, and how the geopolitical climate is driving this change. We also touch on the implications of these shifts for global markets and the economy, especially in terms of energy and raw materials. It's a thought-provoking chat that challenges our views on dependency and the future of Europe in a rapidly changing world. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Koen on LinkedIn.
Follow Philippe on LinkedIn.
Learn more about their book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Welcoming back Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
04:05 - What is multi globalization and how does it apply to today's global economy?
11:57 - Is it safe for European companies to rely on U.S tech?
19:01 - The future of Europe
24:52 - The forces driving gold
29:04 - Inv…
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SI349: Navigating the Age of Uncertainty with Trend Following ft. Mark Rzepczynski
24 mei 2025 · 1 uur 6 min
In this episode, Niels and Mark Rzepczynski examine a market where the usual relationships have broken down. Bonds offer no shelter, volatility moves without conviction, and political intervention keeps distorting the signals investors rely on. What once served as protection now feels unreliable. Behind the headlines on tariffs, inflation, and eroding trust in institutions lies a deeper question about how to navigate when the frameworks built for one regime are carried into another. With a balance of macro insights, behavioral nuance, and hard-earned skepticism, this conversation looks at what really drives returns when narratives shift faster than the data. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - What Caught our Attention
04:16 - The Impact of Supply Chains on Global Trade
08:51 - The Complexities of Trust in Economics
17:45 - Understanding Trend Following in Financial Markets
27:18 - The Age of Uncertainty
32:51 - Understanding Market Uncertainty
36:52 - More than One Type of Uncertainty
49:53 - The Fallout of Trend Following
01:01:22 - The Dynamics of Safe Assets
01:02:41 - Transitioning from Concepts to Practical Insights in Trend Following
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here …
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GM82: The Surprising Success of the U.S. Economy ft. Elroy Dimson & Kiran Ganesh
21 mei 2025 · 1 uur 3 min
America's recent economic performance has been a surprise, as it's managed to outperform many other markets over the last quarter century. We review the insights from the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, discussing how the US has thrived and what that means for future investment strategies. Our guests, Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh, share their expertise on market trends, the importance of diversification, and the implications of recent economic shifts. We also explore the complexities of factors like equity risk premium and the evolving role of bonds in an investment portfolio. Join us as we explore these themes and consider what’s next for investors in a changing global landscape. You can read the Global Investment Returns Yearbook here. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Elroy on LinkedIn.
Follow Kiran on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 - Introduction to Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh
09:21 - What kind of feedback do they get from clients?
13:04 - Stocks for the long run?
17:41 - Is the US losing its grip on its economy?
24:08 - Are indicies becoming more crucial for portfolios?
25:39 - Ranking equity markets according to risk
27:22 - How often should we expect economic collapses?
29:13 - The surprising outcomes of bonds
34:00 - Bonds - are …
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SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer
17 mei 2025 · 1 uur 15 min
Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evolved in ways that undermine its edge? From the seduction of short-term models to the unintended consequences of complexity, this conversation traces how well-meaning enhancements may be compounding the very problems they aim to solve. Layer in political volatility, crowded positioning, and allocator fatigue, and the path forward looks less like innovation and more like rediscovery. This episode isn’t a defense of recent results... it’s a clear-eyed look at what happens when a strategy built on discipline gets pulled off course, and what it takes to steer it back. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:20 - Reflecting on Apple and China's Tech Revolution
17:28 - Shifts in the Market Landscape: The Influence of Trump and AI
20:03 - The Dynamics of Negotiation in Real Estate
30:15 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Central Banks
39:26 - The Changing Dynamics of Market Trends
48:00 - Evaluating Investment Strategies and Performance
53:19 - Navigating Market Challenges and Expectations
01:08:34 - The Future of Investment Strategies
01:11:10 - Navig…
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UGO02: Inequality, Inflation, and the End of Consensus ft. Jim Bianco
14 mei 2025 · 1 uur 4 min
What if the volatility we’re seeing is not a pause in the cycle, but the start of something lasting? In this episode, Cem Karsan sits down with Jim Bianco to unpack the forces reshaping the market and the political landscape around it. From the roots of labor unrest in 1880s Chicago to rising tariffs and inflation today, they trace how decades of policy widened inequality and fractured the middle. This is a conversation about debt, power, and the limits of the old playbook. The Fed may no longer be able to step in. Passive investing may no longer offer safety. If you are still positioned for the past, this episode is a clear signal to rethink what comes next. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Jim on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:01 - Introduction to Jim Bianco and Bianco Research
06:36 - The big macro picture view
16:02 - The financial inequality is at an all time high
22:51 - The power of generational wealth
24:07 - The imbalance of politics - something has to change
27:47 - Why we will see a major shift in how we invest soon
30:19 - How the economy is changing
36:10 - What defines a strong economy?
40:58 - What is Trump talking about?
45:36 - The outlook of the economy
53:33 - The core of the political problems in the US
55:16 - How to benefit from t…
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SI347: Stagflation, Storytelling, and the Search for a New Hero ft. Cem Karsan
10 mei 2025 · 1 uur 8 min
Today Cem and Niels dissect a world quietly shifting beneath our feet. Lees meer
As markets hum along, Cem explains why the real story lies beneath the surface: a structural liquidity drain, a creeping stagflation that defies familiar playbooks, and a political regime shift few are pricing in. From Buffett’s exit to dollar fragility, elite endowments tapping the bond market, and oil diplomacy with geopolitical undertones—this is a conversation about change in motion.
But this episode doesn’t stop at markets. It’s about the narrative arc of societies under stress—about whether the West can summon the unity and courage to face its next great test.
Insightful, urgent, and layered - this is the episode you will look back on and say: the clues were all there.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:17 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:54 - Industry performance update
08:44 - Inflation is coming - what now?
16:43 - The Fed is stuck and the Trump administration is changing
26:07 - If US debt defaults, what is left?
29:32 - Are we experiencing the decline of the dollar?
40:19 - The OPEC game
43:21 - Reflecting on the conversation with Demetri Kofinas
48:33 - What is courage as a society?
50:49 - The West is being disunified...on purpose
53:22 -…
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GM81: What If Everything You Believe About Markets Is Wrong? ft. Demetri Kofinas
7 mei 2025 · 1 uur 3 min
What if the biggest risk in markets today isn’t volatility, inflation, or geopolitics - but the stories we believe to be true? In this unfiltered and thought-provoking episode, Demetri Kofinas joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a piercing conversation that challenges how we process information, construct narratives, and make decisions in uncertain environments. This isn’t about market forecasts - it’s about how easily our thinking can be hijacked. From the corrosive incentives of financial media to the quiet ways conviction becomes cognitive quicksand, Demetri argues that investors today are drowning not in data, but distortion - misled by institutions built to entertain, not enlighten. Yet this episode is more than critique. It offers a path forward - one grounded in introspection, discomfort, and the discipline of intellectual honesty. For anyone managing capital - or simply trying to see clearly in a noisy world—this is a conversation that may shift not just your positions, but your perspective. Because the greatest edge in markets isn’t a model. It’s clarity when others are lost in the fog. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Demetri on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:21 - Introduction to Demetri Kofinas
04:39 - The era of financial nihilism
11:44 -…
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SI346: Is the Trend Still Your Friend ft. Rob Carver
3 mei 2025 · 1 uur 9 min
This episode is all about understanding the nuances of trend-following and how current market dynamics are shaking things up. Together with Rob Carver, we discuss the turbulence that hit financial markets in April and how that affected Trend Followers, as well as how Rob navigated the last 12 months as a trend follower. Plus, we explore the intriguing topic of safe haven assets, questioning if traditional choices like U.S. treasury bonds still hold up under pressure. We also explore a paper that the discuss the pros and cons of simplicity over complexity in strategy design. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:59 - Society is going crazy
09:47 - Industry performance update
16:22 - How to capture the bounce in trailing stops
23:20 - Industry performance numbers
25:18 - Q1, Niall: What books would you recommend for a young quant entering the CTA space today?
29:05 - Reviewing Rob's annual trend following performance
36:26 - Should we start to rethink our approach to drawdowns?
40:45 - How do we stop investors from projecting market expectations to trend following performance
44:16 - How Rob defines slippage
50:12 - What if we base our trend system on one indicator?
54:18 - Does this trend fo…
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IL38: Our Dollar, Your Problem ft. Kenneth Rogoff
30 april 2025 · 1 uur 11 min
What if the most dangerous thing in the global economy isn’t a shock — but the quiet collapse of the frameworks we still rely on? Lees meer
In this rare, unfiltered conversation, Kenneth Rogoff — Harvard professor and former IMF Chief Economist — joins Kevin Coldiron to confront the reality that’s too uncomfortable for most policymakers to admit:
The world has changed. The models haven’t.
Rogoff explores what happens when inflation refuses to respond, debt compounds beneath the surface, AI reshapes productivity, and geopolitics redraws the map — while central banks keep playing by yesterday’s rules.
This isn’t a call for panic. It’s a call for intellectual honesty.
Because in a world where the past no longer explains the present, clarity is the only edge that matters.
If you manage capital — or ideas — in a world built on assumptions, this episode is for you.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Kenneth on X and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:01 - Introduction to Kenneth Rogoff
03:04 - What is at stake if the dollar loses its dominance?
09:13 - How Trump tariffs are destroying the dollar
13:27 - What are the alternatives to the dollar dominance?
19:18 - How increased military spending could strengthen the European currencies
27:19 - Th…
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SI345: From Chaos to Clarity: The Power of Systematic Investing ft. Nick Baltas
26 april 2025 · 1 uur 8 min
This episode is all about exploring the intricacies of market behavior, how trends shift, and what that means for our investment strategies. We’re having a serious chat about the impact of recent market fluctuations and how they influence our approaches to trend following. Together with Nick Baltas, we’ll touch on the dynamics of crowding in trades and how that shapes investor sentiment. So, grab your headphones and get ready for a straightforward, no-nonsense journey through the latest trends and insights in the investing world. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:59 - What has caught our attention recently?
09:44 - We are entering an era of new market drivers
15:31 - Why gold might be overrated
17:34 - The challenges that investors are facing at the moment
21:26 - Pension funds - reasons for concern?
25:05 - Industry performance update
27:08 - How Baltas' models react to the current markets
30:46 - Industry performance numbers
32:57 - Q1, Tim: Should an allocator into trend following strategies keep holding on to the winners or switch between trend following strategies?
43:35 - Q1.1, Tim: Based on his models, where does Nick currently see crowded trades, and what is his assessment on crowdedness / positioning in equities where things …
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OI15: Navigating the Commodity Markets with Calculo Capital ft. Ole Hansen & Philip Carlsson
23 april 2025 · 43 min
Today, we're diving deep into the world of commodities with Calculo Capital, a short-term quantitative hedge fund based in Denmark. Our guests, Philip Engel Carlsson and Ole Hansen, share their insights on how they navigate the fast-paced commodity markets using machine learning techniques. We explore how their focus on liquid markets and short holding periods allows them to capitalize on price movements driven by supply and demand imbalances. The conversation also touches on the current trends in commodities, like the rising demand for precious metals and the impact of geopolitical events. Join us as we uncover the strategies behind Calculo's approach and what sets them apart in the investment landscape. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Ole on LinkedIn.
Follow Philip on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - Introduction to Calculo Capital
03:53 - The state of today's commodity markets
10:35 - Commodity performance numbers
11:34 - What is driving the increased performance in the precious metal markets?
15:35 - How the commodity performance impacts the way Calculo Capital is trading
16:48 - Why do Calculo Capital only focus on commodity markets?
18:12 - What kind of commodities do they trade and why?
19:50 - What is a supply/demand imbalance and h…
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SI344: Trend Following during Trump Tariff Turmoil ft. Katy Kaminski
19 april 2025 · 1 uur 11 min
In this episode, we explore the current market dynamics and discuss Katy Kaminski's latest research paper on crisis and correction alpha, which provides insights into how CTA strategies are navigating turbulent times. We also touch on the importance of understanding how trends shift and the implications for various asset classes. From examining the impact of correlation and volatility in risk management to discussing the nuances of different trading speeds, we aim to equip you with a clearer perspective on what to expect from these time tested strategies, which forms part of the latest wave of Portable Alpha offerings. Join us, as we find out how you can uncover opportunities in these challenging market conditions. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:58 - Industry performance update
08:33 - What are the most interesting markets according to Kaminski?
14:06 - Industry performance numbers
15:31 - Crisis or correction?
22:04 - A historical perspective - we have been here before..
28:50 - Crisis alpha or Chaos alpha?
33:01 - Why are managers' performance so different this time?
39:20 - It's all about the long game
41:42 - The trend following trading speed is shifting
50:18 - Should markets b…
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IL37: Hate the Game? How to Navigate Life's Economic Challenges ft. Daryl Fairweather
16 april 2025 · 52 min
Discover how to navigate the complexities of personal and professional decisions through the lens of behavioral economics. Kevin Coldiron speaks with Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the book "Hate the Game," who shares insights on using economic principles to tackle everyday challenges, from negotiating salaries to understanding workplace dynamics. They explore the importance of empathy and perspective-taking in decision-making, emphasizing that understanding the rules of the economic game can empower individuals to succeed despite systemic inequalities. Fairweather discusses her own journey in economics and the lessons learned from her experiences, including the value of strategic thinking in competitive environments. This conversation is not only enlightening but also serves as a practical guide for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills and career trajectory. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Daryl on X and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Daryl Fairweather
07:30 - Choosing games and assessing probabilities
13:14 - How do you know if your boss is a jerk?
14:03 - Why it is important to be aware of how you present your resumé
16:23 - What happens when algorithms take …
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SI343: CTAs: The Unexpected Heroes of Market Crises ft. Yoav Git
12 april 2025 · 1 uur 11 min
Together with Yoav Git, we’ll explore how market conditions are shifting and what that means for investors, especially in light of recent bond market movements. It’s been a wild ride lately, with unexpected changes in correlations between stocks and bonds, and we’re here to break it all down. We’ll also touch on the implications for trend-following strategies and how they can adapt in these turbulent times. So, whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious, hang tight as we unravel these complex topics together! Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:39 - Are there more to the Trump Tariffs than meets the eyes?
09:53 - What is actually a safe haven asset today?
11:50 - Industry performance update
15:15 - Git's trend following perspective on fixed income
17:25 - Trend following performance numbers
21:39 - What you can expect from trend following during a crisis period
30:31 - What we can learn from the current economic events
34:27 - Key insights to achieving diversification
40:40 - Achieving better performance through trend predictors
45:01 - How CTAs interpret diversification in a unique way
50:03 - Are we experiencing more dispersion today than previously?
57:57 - The symbiotic rel…
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TTU149: Risk, Return, Repeat: The Portable Alpha Revival ft. Razvan Remsing & Alan Dunne
9 april 2025 · 1 uur 10 min
Today, we’re diving into the world of portable alpha and how it can really shake up your investment game. Alan Dunne and I are chatting with Razvan Remsing from Aspect Capital, who shares that this concept isn’t new but is gaining traction again as allocators look for ways to make their portfolios work harder. With everything going on in the markets, it’s essential to think about how different strategies can fit together, especially in a world where traditional asset allocations might not cut it anymore. We’ll explore the benefits of a multi-asset approach and how CTAs can play a crucial role in managing risk while seeking out returns. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Razvan on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
01:28 - Introduction to Razvan Remsing and Aspect Capital
06:50 - A critical time for portable alpha products
18:25 - The evolution of the sophistication of investors
25:44 - Why trend following is the magic sauce to your portfolio
33:07 - Are investors sleeping on portable alpha strategies?
37:07 - The state of the CTA space from a global macro perspective
45:14 - The total portfolio approach
52:48 - Razvan's perspective on replication strategies
58:14 - Key advice for working with clients
Copyright © 2026 – CM…
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SI342: From Trend Following to Super Determinism ft. Richard Brennan
5 april 2025 · 1 uur 15 min
Together with Richard Brennan, we’ll explore how current market uncertainties are shaping investor sentiment and prompting a massive shift in how we think about financial systems. As we navigate through some heavy topics, we also touch on the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach in a world where noise can easily drown out the signals. Expect insights on the evolving landscape of trading, where we emphasize the necessity of aligning with processes rather than predictions. Join us as we unpack these ideas and their implications for both our trading philosophy and our understanding of the market dynamics at play. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:24 - What has caught our attention recently?
12:58 - The damage of leveraged ETF products
15:38 - Reflecting on the trend following performance of Q1
25:18 - Industry performance numbers
26:42 - Super determinism - how it impacts our trading
41:59 - The relationship between science, trend following and the universe
55:36 - Understanding complex adaptive systems as a trend follower
01:13:36 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key…
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UGO01: Reflexive Markets, Real-Time Risk: The Dawn of the 0DTE Era ft. Mike Green
2 april 2025 · 1 uur 4 min
In the premiere of U Got Options, Cem Karsan is joined by Mike Green for an unfiltered, high-conviction conversation straight from the floor of the CBOE. Together, they dive deep into the explosive growth of 0DTE options - now driving over 60% of S&P volume - and unpack how this shift is quietly rewiring market reflexivity, volatility dynamics, and the path of dispersion. With stories from the pits and sharp macro takeaways, this episode sets the tone for a series that goes beyond the headlines to decode the real forces shaping today’s markets. Raw. Insightful. Essential. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - Introduction to Mike Green
07:39 - How and why 0DTE options have changed the investing landscape
17:23 - Implied volatility is changing - what does it mean for investors?
25:18 - How periods of relative stability impact investor behaviour
31:03 - The unwind of passives - is the system under pressure?
39:51 - What are prices actually telling us?
43:31 - Why this cycle might be different
48:52 - What makes a long lasting investor?
54:17 - A deep dive into passive flows
57:18 - Individualism in investing - are we becoming too separated?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3…
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SI341: Nothing Good Happens Below the 200-Day Moving Average ft. Mark Rzepczynski
29 maart 2025 · 1 uur 1 min
Alan Dunne and Mark Rzepczynski tackle the current market vibes, focusing on how factors like the 200-day moving average can shift market sentiment and affect portfolio strategies. As they navigate through the choppy waters of market performance, they discuss the importance of understanding uncertainty versus risk and how it impacts decision-making for both individual investors and managers alike. There’s also an exploration of how curiosity plays a crucial role for fund managers in adapting to ever-changing market dynamics. Join us for an insightful discussion on making sense of today's investment landscape. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:09 - Industry performance update
06:22 - How markets and managers respond to tariffs
09:39 - Are we talking ourselves into a recession?
12:55 - Why the distinction between risk and uncertainty is important
16:26 - What is price telling us about market noise?
24:06 - How quant traders should approach uncertainty
28:59 - How the current economic landscape shapes systematic trading
31:52 - Feedback loops, reaction functions and monetary policy
36:05 - Advice for dealing with uncertainty as an investor
41:36 - Curiosity as a ch…
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IL36: Democracy, Money, and the Central Bank - A Risky Balance ft. Leah Rose Downey
26 maart 2025 · 59 min
Our guest on this episode is Leah Downey, Junior Research Fellow at St. John’s College Cambridge and author of the new book Our Money: Monetary Policy as If Democracy Matters. Independent central banks are thought to be necessary to prevent politicians using monetary policy to influence elections and to avoid dangerously high levels of inflation. Is this really correct? Is it really healthy for a democracy to allocate so much power to a very small group of unelected people? Why is monetary policy considered ‘too complicated’ for politicians when equally complex areas like energy and defence are not? Is more uncertainty in monetary policy actually better for long-run economic stability? We tackle all these questions as we explore Dr. Downey’s view that the way we govern central banks needs to change. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Learn more about Leah on her website and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Leah Rose Downey
08:36 - A comic flimsy ground
10:34 - Examples of the tension between legislators and Fed
15:21 - Legislators have become a weak economic muscle
19:32 - The complexity of tax policy
25:19 - A better way to manage a central bank
32:08 - The monetary system is like a set of pipes
34:00 - Why efficie…
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SI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan Dunne
22 maart 2025 · 1 uur 5 min
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio? Lees meer
But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:41 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:14 - A new era for Germany?
10:02 - The ETF space is on fire
11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll
12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective
21:39 - Industry performance update
2…
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TTU148: CTAs - The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood ft. Rob Carver, Graham Robertson and Yoav Git
19 maart 2025 · 1 uur 10 min
Today, we’re diving deep into the world of CTAs and their role in investment portfolios. We discuss the balance between focusing on a single asset class versus a multi-asset approach, emphasizing that different asset classes offer unique utilities to investors. Our guests share insights from their experiences, highlighting the importance of tailored execution strategies and how technology can enhance trading performance. We also explore the growing interest from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock in trend-following strategies, raising questions about the future of CTAs in institutional portfolios. Join us as we unpack these themes and share our thoughts on the evolving landscape of systematic trading. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
04:02 - Introduction to Yoav Git
06:16 - The background behind Graham, Rob and Yoav's relationship
12:15 - What is common about people working at Man AHL?
15:47 - Should you focus on single or multi asset classes?
24:58 - The state and outlook for fixed income and
29:47 - Liquidity and how it plays a role in alternative markets
36:09 - Are investors misunderstanding liquidity?
37:28 - How do you actually measure and …
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SI339: CTAs vs ETFs: The Showdown That Could Change Everything ft. Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel
15 maart 2025 · 1 uur 20 min
Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel joins us to talk about the current state of global markets and the pivotal changes affecting our industry. We’re all feeling the shift in dynamics, and we’re here to unpack how that impacts our investing approaches. From the rise of new ETFs to the ongoing debate about the future of managed futures, we’ll cover it all. So grab your headphones and get ready for some straight talk on trends, volatility, and what it means for all of us as investors. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:11 - Industry performance update
14:30 - Wild moves in markets
16:55 - Trump dumps on Trump trade
26:23 - A wealth of products - is it just a phase?
35:16 - The developments in the CTA space
36:21 - Are we trying to engineer the impossible?
41:45 - The pros and cons of inflection points vs short term models
50:28 - Why do CTAs replicate the way they do?
57:36 - Are the new ETFs threatening the CTA franchise?
01:01:56 - Discussing performance in the CTA space
01:09:22 - The use of QIS strategies in trend following
01:13:52 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you i…
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ALO29: What Every Investor Should Know About Valuations ft. David Giroux
12 maart 2025 · 1 uur 1 min
Leveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these ideas and explore what they mean for the future of investing. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Read more about David here.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to David Giroux and T. Rowe Price
09:00 - Are mostly sectors overvalued?
11:43 - What has driven the change in valuations?
13:48 - How Giroux determines how much risk to allocate in markets
18:19 - The outlook for equity returns and Giroux stance on AI
21:42 - The relationship between market meltdowns and interest rates
23:29 - Giroux's outlook for inflation
28:32 - How Giroux uses his past experience to predict markets
31:37 - How Giroux constructs stock por…
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SI338: Politics, Markets & Power Plays: An Unfiltered Look ft. Cem Karsan
8 maart 2025 · 1 uur 9 min
Together with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex landscape. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:40 - We are at a populism crossroads
07:09 - Industry performance update
09:02 - The current state and outlook for the global economy
21:03 - The absurdity of lowering yields to maintain a strong dollar
28:47 - The Mar-a-Lago accord - realistic or pure speculation?
35:42 - Are we seeing a new new world order?
42:20 - How the TSMC deal with the US will impact the conflict between Taiwan and China
50:28 - A perfect storm for the Turkish economy
57:20 - The importance of Turkey…
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GM80: Doomsday Clock Ticks: Are We Close to a Monetary Shift? ft. Adam Rozencwajg
5 maart 2025 · 1 uur 20 min
Today Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it's right around the corner. We're talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It's all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting these markets, especially regarding energy security. So grab a seat, because we're about to unpack why you should be paying attention to these developing trends and what they could mean for the future of commodities. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:32 - A big picture framework - what has changed since our last conversation?
09:32 - Why are commodities so cheap today?
17:03 - Why is now the moment to go long?
31:04 - We are in a huge carry trade
47:04 - Commodities are taking over another role
51:15 - Where are the greatest opportunities in rare metals?
58:40 - It will end badly for millennials
01:04:09 - Conspiracy theories …
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SI337: How Best to "Replicate" Managed Futures Returns ft. Katy Kaminski
1 maart 2025 · 1 uur 3 min
In this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" label. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:50 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:09 - Industry performance update
13:06 - Q1, Rick: Has Katy done any work on Co-Movement Factor and "offsides" systems?
18:12 - Q1.2, Rick: Katy's work shows us the dispersion between "slow" and "fast" systems w/ an optimal window of 10mo: How does this "optimal window" differ by year?
25:54 - Q2, Brian: Are there more individual investors than institutional investors?
28:43 - Q2.2: Are investors holding the ETF “long term”, or do they “chase performance”?
32:25 - Q3, Niels: How should we think about future returns in trend following?
36:24 - The beta of…
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IL35: The New Age of Economic Warfare: Are We Ready? ft. Edward Fishman
26 februari 2025 · 1 uur 1 min
Our guest on this episode is Edward Fishman, a world expert on the modern art of economic warfare. Edward is author of the new book Chokepoints: American Power In The Age of Economic Warfare. He currently teaches at Columbia University and prior to that advised the US Secretary of State, Joints Chiefs of Staff and Treasury Department on the deployment of economic sanctions. We discuss the details of how the US uses its dominant position in the world’s financial markets and technology software to pressure countries like Iran, Russia and China. Most importantly this episode explains why these tools used to influence these chokepoints are permanent and are starting to form the contours of the new global economy that will persist for the coming decades. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Edward on X and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Introduction to Edward Fishman
08:24 - The failures of economic warfare
14:04 - What Stuart Levy can teach us about economic
19:26 - Who even want to work at banks nowadays?
22:10 - The most successful sanction in modern times
27:02 - The dangers of sanctions, export controls and tarifs
32:56 - What is a denial order and why is it such a powerful tool?
37:52 - What is the entity list and what is…
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SI336: How to Invest in Turbulent Times? ft. Graham Robertson
22 februari 2025 · 1 uur 3 min
With global market dynamics shifting rapidly and geopolitical noise reaching new heights, how can investors adapt and thrive? In this episode, we explore why an adaptive approach is crucial for navigating today’s turbulent financial landscape. Our conversation delves into the challenges investors face when competing against dominant market players and how trend-following strategies can shine in times of crisis. We also examine the often-overlooked disconnect between price and value - and how this mismatch might actually present fresh opportunities. Join us for an insightful discussion with Graham Robertson from Man AHL, as we unpack these critical insights and explore why trend following remains a powerful tool for generating "crisis alpha." Buckle up for a fascinating conversation! Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:11 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:27 - Are kids too worried about the state of the world?
05:58 - Our current observations on trend
10:54 - How to capture the moves in the European energy markets
13:05 - Valuable insights on alternative markets
17:11 - Are alternative markets trending better?
23:02 - The state of liquidity in the industry
25:52 - How Man AHL approaches crypto
29:47 - Industry performance up…
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OI14: Behind the Scenes of a Crypto Hedge Fund ft. Michael Hall & Anatoly Crachlilov
19 februari 2025 · 1 uur 7 min
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Anatoly Crachilov and Michaell Hall from Nickel Digital, a prominent London-based crypto hedge fund. Anatoly (CEO) and Michael (CIO) founded the company in 2019 with an initial focus on in-house arbitrage and basis trading strategies. Over the years, their business model has evolved and adapted to the fast-changing world of digital assets. Today, Nickel Digital operates as a multi-strategy, multi-manager setup with more than $250 million in AUM, making it one of the largest and longest-standing crypto hedge funds globally. Lees meer
Anatoly, Michael and Moritz speak about the opportunities and challenges of operating a multi-PM digital asset hedge fund, how they differ from traditional asset hedge fund pod shops, and how the attract and find new PMs to work with them.
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Introduction to Nickel Digital and how they found their way to crypto
08:10 - A trip down memory crypto lane
12:25 - Why is the basis still so wide on crypto?
15:07 - The state of alpha in the crypto space
18:23 - What kind of portfolio does Nickel Digital run?
19:56 - How they take advantage of automation to carry out a 24/7 365 trading stra…
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SI335: Trend Following or Mean Reversion: What Works Best When? ft. Rob Carver
15 februari 2025 · 1 uur 25 min
Join us for a fascinating and in-depth conversation with Rob Carver, where we’ll discuss the current state of gold, the impact of rising borrowing costs on futures pricing, and how these elements intertwine with market trends. Along the way, we’ll tackle listener questions that challenge the status quo, digging into everything from fees in the hedge fund world to the implications of recent political shifts. It's a jam-packed session for anyone looking to get a clearer picture of the investment landscape today. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What on earth is going on with gold?
04:58 - The hidden fees of the hedge fund world
11:25 - Industry performance update
15:00 - Q1, David: Since Rob's book was published, several multi-asset leveraged ETFs have become available. Do you think these products have a place in a long-term portfolio? If so, what kind of allocation would you consider reasonable?
21:17 - Q2, Carlos: Imagine a systematically traded trend following account starting with $100k across 10 markets. Over time, the account grows to $200k. Would it generally be “better” to split the capital into two separate and different trading strategies (each trading 10 instruments), or to add more instruments/markets to the existing strateg…
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ALO28: Why Hedge Funds Still Matter ft. Alexander de Bruin
12 februari 2025 · 1 uur
In this episode, Alexander de Bruin, Head of Fund Research at Edmond de Rothschild, joins Alan Dunne to discuss the art and science of selecting managers and building portfolios of alternatives. Alexander shares insights from his background in convertible bond trading and how it has shaped his approach to allocating capital. The conversation explores the rapid growth of private markets, with a focus on the current opportunities in private credit. They also delve into Alexander's framework for constructing hedge fund portfolios, examining the role of multi-manager, multi-strategy funds compared to other diversifying strategies. Alexander provides a behind-the-scenes look at his manager due diligence process, including his unique approach of sitting on the trading floor with hedge fund managers to gain a deeper understanding of their strategies. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Alexander de Bruin
09:08 - The clients and portfolios that Edmond de Rothschild
13:24 - Should the 60/40 portfolio be revamped?
15:45 - de Bruin's approach to implementing new strategies
19:46 - How de Bruin deal with the paranoia of something going wrong
22:33 - Is there a place for multi-strat approaches?
25:14 - The challenges of managing r…
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SI334: Why Quants Might Be Your Best Bet ft. Nick Baltas
8 februari 2025 · 58 min
Together with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-political landscape. We touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:26 - A mini crash in the crypto space
11:24 - Breath vs Size of Crypto Investors
14:24 - The US Fixed Income policy is changing
16:07 - Industry performance update
19:21 - Reviewing current trends in 2025
23:46 - How people react to trend following as a defensive strategy
28:51 - What are the most popular risk mitigation strategies?
30:53 - An alternative way of allocating away from bonds and into "safe" equities
38:13 - The trust in the system is fading...rapidly
46:53 - Why price might be more accurate when using trend following
49:42 - The unintended impact of rebalancing
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – Al…
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ALO27: Unlocking Wealth: Insights from UBS's CIO Mark Haefele
5 februari 2025 · 1 uur 3 min
Mark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in a world where macroeconomic factors increasingly influence outcomes. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:30 - Introduction to Mark Haefele
05:13 - Behind the scenes of Haefele's job
06:46 - The key takeaways from Haefele's book
09:01 - The difference between managing your wealth and managing your investment
11:16 - How has the investing world changed over the years?
14:50 - Is now a culmination of previous crises?
16:58 - The 5 structural trends of the global economy and how it relates to go…
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SI333: Convexity - The Trend Following Game Changer! ft. Richard Brennan
1 februari 2025 · 1 uur 13 min
Most investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence. Lees meer
If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of risk, reward, and the powerful edge convexity can give your portfolio!
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:49 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:20 - Industry performance update
11:10 - Why does convexity matter for trend following?
36:13 - What do we actually mean by convexity?
42:04 - Sharpe world - the pitfalls of today's economy
52:30 - Why risk and volatility can feel like the same thing
56:08 - The core of trend following
58:22 - Why open trade equity makes no sense for managers
01:00:03 - The business of trend following
01:01:37 - The exponential potential of trend following
01:08:05 - The times have changed - why …
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GM79: How Global Economic Dynamics Shape Our Future ft. Matthew Klein
29 januari 2025 · 1 uur 2 min
Today, we explore the intricate dynamics of global trade and economics, highlighting the central thesis of Matt Klein's book, "Trade Wars or Class Wars." Klein argues that the common perception of trade as a zero-sum game is fundamentally flawed; instead, he emphasizes that positive-sum solutions exist, benefiting all parties involved. The conversation explores the impact of internal dynamics within countries, particularly focusing on how these dynamics affect international relations and economic outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the current state of the global economy, rising bond yields, and the potential consequences of immigration policies on labor markets and housing. We invite listeners to rethink traditional economic narratives and consider how collective actions can lead to improved outcomes for everyone. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - Introduction to Matthew Klein
05:32 - Expanding the definition of trade
13:45 - The dynamic between growth and productivity
17:04 - The state of the German economy and how it could be improved
22:42 - Klein's perspective on the development of the bond markets
28:49 - Klein's outlook for inflation and interest rates
34:36 - Are we approaching a consumer credit cr…
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SI332: Market Turbulence: How to Adapt to Regime Changes in Investing ft. Alan Dunne & Mark Rzepczynski
25 januari 2025 · 1 uur 5 min
Today, we explore the complexities of current market dynamics, emphasizing the heightened levels of uncertainty stemming from recent regime changes. Mark Rzepczynski shares insights on how this uncertainty can influence investment behavior and market trends, highlighting the importance for investors to adapt their strategies in response to these shifts. The discussion touches on the implications of fluctuating correlations and volatility, particularly for systematic and trend-following strategies. We also explore how the intricate nature of financial markets as complex systems can lead to nonlinear reactions to shocks, making it crucial for traders to consider both measurable risks and the non-measurable uncertainties that can affect their models. The episode wraps up with reflections on the role of institutional arrangements and how they can impact market outcomes in a rapidly changing environment. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - A flurry of activities
04:05 - The state of VIX and how newspapers and media measure uncertainty
09:11 - How do trend followers take advantage of the uncertainty in markets?
12:50 - What are the components of the regime shift?
16:04 - The implications of the regime shift
17:57 - I…
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GM 78: The Market Risk Nobody’s Watching ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
22 januari 2025 · 1 uur 32 min
Today, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin to what was seen in the late '90s, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic economic policies. You will gain valuable insights into how to recognize and adapt to these evolving risks, to become well prepared for the challenges ahead. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
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Read David's report here.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:34 - A quick catch up since last conversation
02:13 - Dredge's key takeaways from 2024
08:58 - When did things really start to move for Dredge?
15:41 - Cem's analysis of the recent global macro environment
22:51 - What has driven the S&P volatility?
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SI331: Crafting the Perfect Investment Portfolio in 2025 ft. Alan Dunne
18 januari 2025 · 1 uur 6 min
Today, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of investment strategies, emphasizing the critical need for diversification in portfolios. With a particular focus on the German economy's challenges, we highlight how geopolitical factors and shifting market dynamics are reshaping investment approaches. We explore the potential implications of rising bond yields and the importance of incorporating trend-following strategies to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes. We also touch on the necessity for investors to rethink their allocations to adapt to an uncertain future, moving beyond outdated correlations and assumptions. As we examine the perspectives of notable figures in finance, the episode serves as a timely reminder of the importance of strategic asset allocation in navigating today's complex market environment. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:55 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:41 - Why has the German economy changed so much?
10:20 - A world of unexpected political events
13:57 - How can there be a beta if managers are so different?
16:06 - The state of the global macro environment
25:10 - Industry performance update
28:10 - Are investors relying too much on past performance?
35:01 - Are we seeing …
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OI13: The Art of Continuous Trading: Mastering Market Dynamics ft. Bill Gebhardt
15 januari 2025 · 48 min
Bill Gebhardt from 10Dynamics discusses the intriguing intersection of market efficiency and systematic trading strategies. He emphasizes the idea that while traditional views suggest markets are efficient, many hedge funds continue to find success using price-based strategies that should theoretically not work. This paradox leads to a fascinating exploration of the psychological aspects of trading, particularly how human behavior can create opportunities for systematic traders. Gebhardt shares insights on the operational complexities of running a nearly continuous trading process, utilizing intraday data, and employing a diverse range of signals. The conversation explores the risks of underfitting versus overfitting in trading models, ultimately advocating for a strategy that embraces empirical success without excessive optimization. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Bill on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:17 - Introduction to Bill Gebhardt
06:35 - No pain, no gain
08:40 - Why are they called 10Dynamics?
10:08 - What is their philosophy behind how markets work?
12:24 - Are the signals that they run based on trend following?
13:47 - How they handle the operational complexity of their system
18:15 - How they assess the validity of their data
20:39 - Ex…
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SI330: Yield Storm Ahead: Preparing for a New Era ft. Cem Karsan
11 januari 2025 · 1 uur 1 min
Together with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and potential counter-trend rallies, this episode provides a thought-provoking look at the complexities facing investors right now. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:19 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:39 - Industry performance update
08:34 - Long term skew in vol markets is causing trouble
13:41 - Approaching OPEX - what is in sight?
21:28 - Does a strong S&P500 performance indicate an incoming crisis?
24:08 - Are we approaching a counter trend rally?
26:33 - It's getting hard to hedge
35:16 - Investors are long without realizing it
38:34 - We…
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TTU147: How to Craft a Rich Life Beyond Money ft. William Green
8 januari 2025 · 1 uur 45 min
William Green, author of the book "Richer, Wiser, Happier", returns to the podcast for an eye opening conversation centered around the complexities of investing and the importance of building a rich life beyond mere financial success. We explore the idea that true wealth encompasses autonomy, meaningful relationships, and personal growth, rather than just monetary accumulation. Throughout the discussion, William shares lessons learned from interviewing some of the greatest investors, emphasizing the significance of self-awareness and understanding one’s biases in decision-making. We also touch on the current landscape of investing, including the dominance of U.S. equities and the implications of artificial intelligence in the financial world. By weaving in personal anecdotes and stories, William illustrate how to navigate uncertainty and position oneself for long-term success while maintaining a focus on what truly matters in life. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow William on X and read his book.
Episode Timestamps:
01:42 - Catching up since our last conversation
07:22 - The importance of having connection and belonging along the path
13:51 - The power of friendships
20:21 - A key component to achieve success
22:20 - The pitfalls of becoming successful
26:47 - How psychology in…
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SI329: CTAs: Innovation Meets Legacy & the BlackRock Effect ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
4 januari 2025 · 1 uur 28 min
Together with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of managed futures and CTAs, highlighting the critical need for a narrative shift to better communicate their value to investors. Andrew and Tom discuss the challenges faced by allocators in understanding the unique benefits of trend-following strategies, especially amidst a backdrop of changing market dynamics. They explore the implications of BlackRock's recent move to launch an actively managed manager ETF, which could significantly impact how managed futures are perceived and allocated within investment portfolios. The conversation also touches on the potential for new ESG-compliant products that could attract investors reluctant to engage with traditional commodity exposure. With insights into the current market environment and the importance of adaptability, this episode provides valuable perspectives for anyone interested in systematic investing and the future of CTAs. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:20 - Our expectations going into 2025
07:00 - What to do when bonds are collapsing
10:21 - Industry performance update
11:49 - A deep dive into indices
17:36 - The mechanisms behind creating an index
23:13 - What returns can …
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IL34: Democratizing Data: A New Approach for Trustworthy Information ft. Julia Lane
1 januari 2025 · 43 min
Our guest on this episode is Dr. Julia Lane, Professor at New York University and author of the book Democratizing Our Data: A Manifesto. Dr. Lane is a member of the National AI Research Resource Task Force and has advised the White House on promoting the use of Federal data for evidence building. She believes that the US system collecting data is outdated, inaccurate and unable to reform itself. This includes the data that goes into measures like GDP and unemployment. The current system is also unable to track the impact of AI on the economy. We discuss her proposals including her work to establish a new non-partisan institute to provide accurate and secure data available to everyone. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Julia on LinkedIn and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - Introduction to Julia Lane
03:42 - We need to rethink how we generate trustworthy data
12:49 - How does data collection look like in the U.S?
18:14 - How do we find out what firms are working in artificial intelligence?
24:53 - How Lane believes we can solve the challenges of collecting trustworthy data
30:38 - How you maintain trust from an operational point of view
32:38 - What we can learn from the New Zealand data collection system
35:57 - How confide…
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SI328: Year-End Roundtable: The Future of Trend Following and Market Dynamics (Part 2)
28 december 2024 · 1 uur 7 min
Join us for Part 2 of our Year-End discussion between all of the hosts on the Systematic Investor Series where we debate the trends and themes shaping the investment landscape heading into 2025. The episode highlights the significance of social media and podcasts in increasing awareness of systematic investment strategies, as well as the challenges posed by evolving market dynamics. Key topics include the role of the U.S. dollar under the new Trump administration, the impact of trend-following strategies, and the ongoing debate about replication in managed futures. We will also share our outrageous predictions for 2025, including insights into the potential resurgence of alternative investments and shifts in global economic relations. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - How social media, podcasts etc. helped us to raise awareness of our products
07:26 - How we decompose risk and uncertainty and how we incorporate it in our thinking
13:20 - The world has gone completely mad
19:30 - The outlook fo…
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OI12: Breaking Rules: Going Beyond Traditional Trend Following ft. Tillmann Sachs & Vishal Sharma
25 december 2024 · 51 min
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Tillmann Sachs and Vishal Sharma from J8 Capital Management, a systematic London-based CTA. The main focus of their discussion is J8’s Global Absolute Return Strategy, which trades several different systems across markets and styles, including carry, arbitrage, and trend following. We also speak about their latest addition to this portfolio, namely the Redwood strategy, which is a short-term model trading some of the world’s most liquid futures markets and works with intraday data that’s sampled every 3 minutes. It’s an interesting conversation with a CTA “plus” – a term Tillmann uses as they employ many strategies away from rules-based trend following. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Tillmann on LinkedIn.
Learn more about J8 Capital.
Episode TimeStamps:
16:16 - Introduction to Tillmann Sachs, Vishal Sharma and J8 Capital Management
04:06 - Why did they start J8 Capital?
05:09 - What got them interested in a systematic approach?
09:12 - The story behind the J8 Global Absolute Return Strategy
13:53 - Multiple different systems or one big system?
16:25 - Why don't they incorporate equities in their strategy?
21:36 - Managing risk in arbitrage strategies
24:44 - Their perspective on going long term VIX
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SI327: 2024's Biggest Investment & Trend Following Insights (Part 1)
21 december 2024 · 59 min
This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal reflections on our investment strategies and predictions for 2025. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:22 - Introduction to the group conversations
02:33 - A trend following recap of 2024
13:07 - A new president - how does it impact geopolitics?
17:21 - What role crowding has played in 2024
24:00 - Do less liquid markets trend more?
…
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GM77: Unlocking the Roaring 2020s: Is Bitcoin the New Gold? ft. Ed Yardeni
18 december 2024 · 59 min
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.” Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Ed on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni
04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy
07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?
10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?
13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed
16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?
17:57 - Will inflation b…
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SI326: Volatility and Trends: What 2024 Held for Trend Followers ft. Katy Kaminski
13 december 2024 · 1 uur
Today, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable perspectives for investors seeking to understand the evolving landscape of systematic investing. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:13 - Industry performance update
03:48 - Our takeaways from 2024
09:20 - How different speed has performed in different markets
13:25 - Has market correlation been lower than usual this year?
14:15 - Concluding on 2024
15:55 - Interesting news in the ETF space
18:29 - Key takeaways from the Hedge Nordic Roundtable 202…