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GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan
11 december 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Paul on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan
06:02 - The state of the European economy
09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing
13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?
18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?
22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?
29:04 - An economic plague in the UK
34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people
38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?
44:3…
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SI325: Why Adaptive Strategies Matter Now More Than Ever ft. Graham Robertson
7 december 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Today, together with Graham Robertson of MAN AHL, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following and its relationship with current market conditions, particularly influenced by central bank actions. We examine how trend followers have navigated recent volatility and the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rate expectations. We highlight the significance of understanding correlation trends among different asset classes and the importance of diversifying strategies in enhancing portfolio resilience. The discussion also touches on the complexities of trend following strategies and the necessity for clearer communication to investors about their benefits. As we explore the evolving landscape of systematic investing, the episode underscores the need for adaptive strategies in an unpredictable economic environment. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:04 - Are single stocks signaling trouble?
05:00 - Major divergence in market performance globally
08:06 - Industry performance update
09:06 - Our key observations from 2024
11:24 - Advice for getting your market capacity right
15:33 - Our thoughts on trading speed
17:14 - Don't get too caught up on specific narratives
18:38 - Industry …
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IL33: The Soul of Wealth: Behavioral Secrets to a Purposeful Life ft. Daniel Crosby
4 december 2024 · 55 min
Our guest on this episode is Dr. Daniel Crosby, New York Times bestselling author and Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. Daniel joins us to discuss his new book - The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning. We discuss simple actions everyone can take to apply the lessons of behavioral finance to their own investing - actions that have a shockingly large impact on wealth accumulation. Daniel talks about why even the most experienced professional investors might benefit from having a financial advisor and how new research on willpower can help us be more effective investors. We end with an overview of Daniel’s new research on the three principles that seem to drive the most purposeful lives. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Daniel on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Daniel Crosby
07:55 - What caused Crosby to write his book?
11:28 - How would Crosby like people to read his book?
13:40 - Does there exist a perfect moment to invest?
17:19 - Crosby's perspective on valuations
21:08 - Does it makes sense to use financial advisors?
25:33 - Taking the worst case off the table
30:00 - How to achieve psychological, financial safety with a low budget
32:25 - The relationshi…
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SI324: Embracing Uncertainty using Adaptive Models ft. Richard Brennan
30 november 2024 · 1 uur 9 min
Today, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode you will gain valuable insights into how both personal and economic landscapes can evolve and respond to changing conditions. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:37 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:20 - Is now the best time to allocate to alternatives?
12:14 - Industry performance update
17:58 - How we manage uncertainty in "chaotic systems"
25:55 - How to translate ensemble models to trend following
28:25 - The benefits of adding more trend following models
34:10 - It takes guts to be a greedy pig
3…
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GM75: Macro Mastery: The Hedgeye Approach ft. Keith McCullough
27 november 2024 · 1 uur 3 min
Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Keith on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Keith McCullough
05:01 - From hedge fund to research
07:29 - Being a retail investor is an insult
09:56 - How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options
13:48 - Have stocks become more macro driven?
15:54 - Where are we currently in the 4 quads?
19:2…
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SI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan
23 november 2024 · 1 uur 13 min
Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment. Lees meer
Add to Show Notes
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:50 - Industry performance update
07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?
09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 2025
17:42 - How you…
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OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut
20 november 2024 · 58 min
In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut
03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models
08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?
09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system
11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders
15:35 - An example of how they handle flow
18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?
21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the market…
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SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski
16 november 2024 · 1 uur 8 min
In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.” Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:43 - Industry performance update
10:17 - New times for bonds
14:37 - The issue is always in the details
19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?
22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing
26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto
29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?
30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?
34:57 - How spikes in …
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IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder
13 november 2024 · 55 min
Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Carola on LinkedIn and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Introduction to Carola Binder
03:20 - How did she approach her research?
07:55 - What does inflation historically mean?
11:19 - How the view on paper money has changed over time
16:25 - How the role of the Fed has…
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SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne
8 november 2024 · 1 uur 3 min
Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?
06:26 - An analysis of the election
11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome
14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome
18:11 - A global macro perspective
28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?
31:39 - Industry performance update
37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio …
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GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran
6 november 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Stephen on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran
05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?
10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work
15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer
17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon
21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?
24:38 - The…
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SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer
2 november 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:30 - Industry performance update
04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months
11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event
16:49 - Picking the right managers
19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality
26:53 - Different products for different market segments
33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?
43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds
46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?
53:49 -…
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GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman
30 oktober 2024 · 59 min
Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman
04:28 - The state of the economy
04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
09:40 - The outlook for inflation
12:34 - A …
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SI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver
25 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 22 min
Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?
09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked
10:37 - An economic Kayfabe
13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?
18:44 - Industry performance update
20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while runn…
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OI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino
23 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 16 min
In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:30 - Introduction
03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis
06:34 - Can trading be taught?
08:50 - The story behind the trading rules
12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trad…
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SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski
19 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?
06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes
07:47 - Industry performance update
09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?
13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions
18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Tren…
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GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
16 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation in…
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SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan
12 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 8 min
This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida
03:39 - A rough time for trend following
08:39 - Industry performance update
12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs
23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following
32:33 - Setting limits in y…
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IL31: What Your Cashless Future Will Look Like ft. Richard Holden
9 oktober 2024 · 58 min
Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden
06:06 - A whole year without cash
08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?
12:40 - The implications of a cashless society
23:53 - A big hurdle
26:04 - Building a better mouse trap
28:08 - Dealing with the U.S. banking regulation
31:13 - The Fed Coin - How could it work?
38:11 - The dark side of the Fed Coin
41:36 - Ho…
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SI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick Baltas
5 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 7 min
Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation. Lees meer
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-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:37 - Industry performance update
09:02 - Reflecting on August and September
12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade
17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?
21:32 - Finding the right trading speed
24:15 - Out-per…
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ALO26: Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy Flikerski
2 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 3 min
Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Amy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski
08:02 - How they think about manager selection
09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?
11:40 - How they assess their investment objective
13:07 - How they manage risk
14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them
15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio
17:11 - How the hedge fund industry have …
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SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan
28 september 2024 · 1 uur 4 min
In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:17 - Industry performance update
05:36 - Seasonality in markets
17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?
21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets
25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?
35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?
39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?
46:19 - A global conflict perspective
50:40 - How the election might impact commodities
52:06 - Migrat…
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GM71: The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin Coldiron
25 september 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Kevin on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published
06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis
09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?
17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?
23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?
30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated
32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes
34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?
37:58 - A change in carry = a change in th…
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SI314: Algo Anxiety... Can AI Resolve This? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
21 september 2024 · 1 uur 10 min
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:18 - Industry performance update
09:58 - Who is responsible for the rise of carry?
16:30 - The markets are the real voting machine
18:34 - Reviewing Powell's speech
23:39 - The KuU framework
29:13 - The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts
38:15 - The flaws of systematic managers
47:05 - Working with the 3 C's
57:13 - "What was it like to be in a bear market?"
01:01:42 - The pros and cons of buying an index
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know abou…
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GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg
18 september 2024 · 1 uur 19 min
This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Catching up
05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke?
12:58 - The state of the metal sector
22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading
28:41 - Getting the timing right
42:51 - It's all about volatility
44:38 - Playing the long game
47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong?
52:40 - A carry trade bubble
54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper?
01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down?
01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast
01:08:40 - An over…
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SI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne
14 september 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:42 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe
08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation
14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds
19:58 - The big macro picture
27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose?
29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!)
34:11 - The carry unwind
41:20 - Are people underestimating…
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IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
11 september 2024 · 59 min
Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson
03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?
05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk
09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?
11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm
15:15 - The new area of tightness
18:27 - It is all about labour cost
23:46 - The deflationary power of technology
26:46 - The outlook of the labour market
32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of tightness
39:38 - What happens in a world with an upward bias to inflation?
43:26 - The difference between existential and tactical crises
46:56 - Carlsson's framework for assessing the risk of debt
52:04 - Carlsson's outlook for the economy g…
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SI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver
7 september 2024 · 1 uur 14 min
Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend. Lees meer
-----
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:18 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:59 - How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays?
10:45 - Industry performance update
14:30 - Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders?
21:00 - Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility
24:24 - Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital
31:22 - Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve…
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GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell
4 september 2024 · 1 uur 3 min
Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Michael on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell
03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets
06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities
09:17…
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SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer
1 september 2024 · 1 uur 1 min
As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:49 - What has been on our radar recently?
04:17 - Industry performance update
08:07 - Just another August?
12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?
14:54 - Has replication become obsolete?
25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation
31:56 - Staying in sync
35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies
43:42 - A world premiere!
51:05 - An index madness
53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things
56:02 - How the new index works
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
… -
GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin
28 augustus 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Peter on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?
07:29 - Signs of weakness?
09:31 - The key indicators of weakness
12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?
15:26 - Assessing the savings rate
17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy
20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?
22:00 - Challenges in the banking system
24:37 - …
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SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan
24 augustus 2024 · 1 uur 3 min
Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?
04:43 - What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?
11:48 - Industry performance update
18:24 - The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting
33:42 - Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data
36:31 - How collective trader behaviour influences price movement
48:03 - How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement
52:47 - Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolio
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topic…
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IL29: Technology: The Economic Dynamite ft. Mark Mills
21 augustus 2024 · 1 uur 1 min
In this episode we welcome back Mark Mills, author of The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark was a guest on the show one year ago and many of the predictions he made then have come true. We revisit his view that simultaneous improvements in information, materials and machine technologies are about to unleash an economic boom. He explains the surge in power consumption related to AI and why this should not serve as a brake on its adoption if we employ sensible energy policies. He also discusses why mining will continue to expand and how manufacturing across all industries is evolving to be more like a service. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Mark on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Introduction to Mark Mills
09:05 - What causes revolutions?
12:27 - How Artificial Intelligence will impact the energy sector
22:02 - Should we be worried about the energy consumption of AI?
29:10 - Are renewables and recycling a viable solution?
37:37 - Putting Mills in the shoes of a mining director
44:13 - The future of battery technology
48:48 - Manufacturing as a service - the new ecommerce?
52:39 - How choke points in manufacturing will chal…
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SI309: Bonds Behaving Badly ft. Katy Kaminski
17 augustus 2024 · 59 min
Along with Katy Kaminski, we discuss how the current disruptions in the economy and markets cause a change in investors’ behaviour. We dive deep into the interconnection between inflation, bonds and volatility and we discuss how to build a portfolio that performs well in economic downturns. We also discuss the difference between a crisis versus a correction and the evolution when it comes to "model speed" within the CTA industry, the importance of sticking to the process in times of uncertainty and much more. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:15 - Have investors internalized the new Divergent economies and policies?
05:37 - Are investors mistaking convergence for divergence and vice versa?
08:57 - Industry performance update
17:19 - Connecting the dots
23:35 - Bonds - Why are they Behaving Badly?
27:59 - Conditional return distribution - what and why?
30:04 - Alternative markets and the 60/40 struggle
35:29 - The role of crisis alpha and a discussion on speed
42:42 - Thoughts on carry in the CTA industry
47:29 - Did the VIX really hit 65?
55:34 - Sticking to the process
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you i…
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ALO25: Master Your Hedge Fund Allocation ft. John Jackson
14 augustus 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
Join John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, and Alan Dunne in this enlightening episode as they dive into the world of hedge fund selection! Discover how a leading institutional consultant selects hedge funds and builds robust portfolios. John shares his insights on why starting with manager selection is key to the portfolio construction process and how he integrates top-down considerations into the mix. The conversation delves into the roles different strategies play in a portfolio, how return expectations are set, and which strategies might thrive in a high-rate, volatile macro environment. John also takes us through Mercer’s rigorous process for researching and selecting new managers, what they look for in a manager, and potential red flags to watch out for. Plus, he sheds light on the importance of emerging managers, the AUM needed for a successful launch, and why he’s passionate about discovering these managers early on. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow John on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - Introduction to John Jackson
05:40 - A changed environment for hedge funds?
08:42 - Best strategies for a high rates environment
11:50 - Are clients stuck in the past?
13:40 - A framework for building hedge fund allocations
18:13 - …
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SI308: Major Market Moves - What Now, Trend Followers? ft. Nick Baltas
10 augustus 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
Following an eventful week with major market rotations, I'm joined by Nick Baltas to discuss the impact of this weeks turbulence on trend followers. We discuss how trend following strategies had already started to adapt to the market rotations in July and what the consequence of leaving the short fixed income trade behind meant for overall performance in August. We also discuss how the market rotations has changed investors’ perception of trend following speed and why there is no “one size fits all” when investing. Lastly, we discuss how risk management has evolved, how it impacts the trend following industry and if we can draw any parallels to previous market "events". Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:45 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:49 - Industry performance update
05:37 - An eventful week
11:22 - Putting the market rotations into context
18:58 - How have trend following strategies started to change recently?
26:40 - How trend following performs according to data
29:03 - How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing?
34:07 - Has the perception of speed shifted after this week?
45:07 - How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks?
50:17 - Zero day options - part of the p…
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GM67: Successful Investing in a Disrupted World ft. Aswath Damodaran
7 augustus 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and a leading expert on valuation and corporate finance joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on current markets and investing in general. They explore why Aswath believes we have witnessed the death of old-school value investing and how structural shifts in the economy have fundamentally altered the investing landscape. The discussion delves into the valuation of Nvidia and the Mag 7, questioning whether the hype around AI is justified. Aswath outlines his approach for long-term valuation, explains how he estimates the equity risk premium, and discusses what the current equity risk premium suggests for long-term equity market returns. They also cover the importance of bond yields for valuation, the shortcomings of P/E as a valuation measure, and whether assets without cash flows, like gold and crypto, can be valued. The episode wraps up with Aswath’s advice for becoming a better investor and preparing for an AI-driven future. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Aswath on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Aswath Damodaran
03:30 - Nvidia - bullish or bearish?
04:47 - How AI will impact the economy
10:48 - How to make better valuations in AI an…
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SI307: The Unpinning of Volatility & How to Prepare for What is Coming ft. Cem Karsan
3 augustus 2024 · 1 uur 8 min
Together with Cem Karsan, we discuss how the volatility space is experiencing major dispersion at the moment and how you can prepare your portfolio for the unpinning of volatility which we are experiencing. We also address how the groundbreaking events that have happened in the U.S. election recently might change the outcome of the election and what impact this will have on the economy. We discuss the core principles and mechanisms behind market moves and how Fed plays a pivotal role in this. And lastly, Cem explains how flows in financial systems and markets work and what you can do as an investor to stay well prepared. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:44 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:38 - A surprise question for Cem
06:26 - Industry performance update
08:59 - How are volatility strategies doing in general in 2024?
14:59 - Suggestions for which volatility indices to use
16:35 - Q1, Zach: How would someone use a systematic trading system to purchase and sell put options?
20:12 - Q2, Rick: With all the talk about USD and rates, does anyone have a view on how a possible unwind of the USD/Yen carry trade could impact markets? DO we know the size of this?
24:19 - Trump 2.0 - better, faster, stronger?
34:30 - An unfathomable sit…
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IL28: The Transformation of the 21st Century Economy ft. Ernest Scheyder
31 juli 2024 · 58 min
In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Ernest Scheyder
03:11 - Why are lithium and copper so important?
05:44 - The outlook of the U.S lithium production
09:12 - Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production
17:26 - What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?
23:17 - Supply and demand in lithium
25:02 - The challenges of recycling batteries
31:07 - Is a fully circular economy even possible?
34:14 - The negative consequences of copper mining
39:19 - A part of the people
41:53 - The complexities of tribal relations in the U.S.
43:46 - …
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SI306: If Trend Following was an Olympic Sport... ft. Mark Rzepczynski
27 juli 2024 · 1 uur 6 min
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?
03:17 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:20 - Bills = money?
09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?
13:38 - Industry performance update
16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??
26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest"
31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity
35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer?
40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio
48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk
53:33 - M…
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GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan
24 juli 2024 · 1 uur 7 min
Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alfonso on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy
10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade
18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?
27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation
34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right
46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election
51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?
55:38 - Could the …
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SI305: Building A Hedge Fund Allocation ft. Alan Dunne
19 juli 2024 · 1 uur 3 min
Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:02 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - How we utilize AI in our own work
09:14 - Price on fossil hit an all time high
09:54 - The FOMO narrative in investing
11:52 - Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election
19:50 - An unsustainable path
24:37 - Industry performance update
27:58 - Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund?
34:25 - Fees - the big differentiator
38:46 - Key takeaway fro…
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GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen
17 juli 2024 · 1 uur 3 min
In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen
05:45 - Was it all about luck?
07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?
12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?
13:56 - The political pressure on central banks
16:48 - The challenges…
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SI304: Taking the Trend Following Temperature with Man AHL ft. Graham Robertson
13 juli 2024 · 1 uur 7 min
Today, we are joined by our special guest, Graham Robertson who is Partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL, for a wide-ranging conversation about trend following. We discuss how trend following has stood out in recent years and why April 2024 was especially noteworthy, and how Graham views the current interest from investors around the world. We also address to what extent trend following should play a role in your portfolio and what type of environment tends to influence overall performance for the industry based on Principal Component Analysis. Lastly, we discuss how AI might impact the trend following industry, and whether Trend Followers have started saying goodbye to the short fixed income traded, that lasted for more than 2 years. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:56 - Introduction to Graham Robertson
03:40 - How Graham came across trend following
04:56 - Graham's observations in 2024 so far
08:03 - Is China becoming an easier market to trade?
09:01 - How to deal with uncomfortable markets
11:17 - Why April was an interesting month for trend followers
14:54 - A discussion on trend following performance
20:45 - Industry performance update
22:03 - How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA stra…
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OI09: The Key to Trend Following Success ft. Cole Wilcox
10 juli 2024 · 49 min
In this episode, Moritz Seibert and Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management speak about systematic trend following strategies applied to single stocks, including the many advantages compared to long only buy and hold, but also some of the challenges and technical details related to portfolio construction. Cole is the founder and CEO of Longboard Asset Management, an Arizona-based alternatives fund management firm. He explains why participating in some of the big outlier price moves in mid and small cap stocks is as important as cutting out the many stock which don’t perform, in other words, avoiding the failures while having a systematic process that allows for taking part in the upside are both important. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Cole on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management
08:27 - Diving deep into the strategy
10:45 - What drives the alpha of their strategy?
15:41 - Understanding your investor base
18:07 - Understanding their correlation
19:31 - Thoughts on including international stocks
24:15 - Do they fully fund their portfolio?
27:52 - How they approach dividends
29:14 - Do they loan out stocks?
30:34 - Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchang…
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SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne
6 juli 2024 · 1 uur 1 min
Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:59 - Industry performance update
06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply
09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade
11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?
13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?
19:57 - When does it all end?
24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?
27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?
33:09 - What will …
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GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm
3 juli 2024 · 57 min
Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Claudia on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm
04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule
08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?
12:37 - Putting the data together
18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?
29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate
40:42 - The state of physical po…
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SI302: The Negative Crisis Beta and CTA's Hidden Market Timing Skills ft. Nick Baltas
29 juni 2024 · 1 uur 8 min
This week, Alan Dunne chats with Nick Baltas about CTAs' negative crisis beta and their hidden market timing skills. Nick and Alan tackle the question of how to build an effective trend-following program as part of a larger multi-asset portfolio, in relation to the markets traded and speed of system and tie in insights from a recent Quantica paper. They weigh the benefits of unconstrained trend-following programs versus those with capped equity beta. Plus, they discuss the ideal level of volatility for running an investment program and take a closer look at a Resolve Asset Management paper on the best ways to construct carry strategies. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:23 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:00 - Industry performance update
05:32 - Reversions incoming?
07:06 - Q1: Regarding how to choose instruments in your trend following algorithm
14:20 - Getting the speed right
17:37 - Q2: At what point does volatility put an investor in a danger zone?
24:32 - Discussing the paper "Negative Crisis Beta" from Quantica
38:16 - Capping the beta
45:17 - The hidden market timing of CTAs
50:23 - The benefits of adding carry to your portfolio
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... h…
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GM63: War Without Rules ft. General Robert Spalding
26 juni 2024 · 1 uur 17 min
Join us as Cem Karsan and I explore China's plan for global dominance with retired General Robert Spalding, author of "War Without Rules." General Spalding discusses the rising tensions between China and the West, pointing out warning signs from the past two decades and mistakes made by the West. We delve into China's long-term strategy for world domination and its impact on investment strategies. We also question if TikTok is being used by China as a weapon against the West. Additionally, we examine the decline of democracy, the rise of autocracy, and the challenges democracies face in competing with autocracies. Finally, General Spalding highlights the importance of protecting digital infrastructure from cyber threats and decentralizing it for resilient communication, a mission he passionately pursues with his company, SEMPRE. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Robert on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:49 - Introduction to General Robert Spalding
03:38 - What did Spalding learn from flying B-2 airplanes?
08:44 - Who is Spalding's criticism aimed towards?
10:33 - A visionary perspective
15:37 - TikTok - The ultimate weapon?
21:37 - Is the West as "bad" as China?
30:49 - How do the West compete on a level playing field against autocracy…
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SI301: The AI Hype within Investing...a Step Too Far? ft. Rob Carver
22 juni 2024 · 1 uur 6 min
Today, Rob Carver shares his insights on buying put options as a tail risk strategy and how trend following can also play a part in tail risk protection...but perhaps not they way some investors may think. Rob also shares his advice for using carry in your strategies when trading rolling futures contracts. We then pivot to hear Rob's thoughts on why the U.S. election appears to be the perfect storm, and we discuss what the outcome of the election will mean for the economy. Rob also explain why he is sceptical about the AI hype and the liability issues that AI poses. Lastly, we discuss the challenges of setting the right level of fees as a manager and how investors may complain about the higher level of fees the multi-billion $ managers charge...yet still chose to invest with them. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:26 - A quick talk on football (soccer)
02:09 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:26 - An update on Rob's portfolio.?
09:37 - Industry performance update
12:07 - Q1, Steve: What are Rob's advice for systematic buying of put options as a tail risk strategy?
26:51 - Q2, Luis: Regarding how to use carry in your strategies when you roll from a contract to the next one
33:39 - A discussion on elections
38:36 - The U.S election …