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GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters
27 december 2023 · 59 min
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Gregory on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters
05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?
06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro
11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve
15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?
19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot
22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias
24:11 - The yield is destiny
27:28 - What range…
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SI275: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 1
22 december 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Join us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we discuss what you are looking for in a good backtest, how to approach making changes to your model and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - Introduction to this special edition of Systematic Investor
03:07 - Looking back on 2023 and into 2024
13:06 - Let's talk about volatility
19:42 - Volatility from a banker's perspective
25:13 - The value of non-trend strategies and smooth returns
40:40 - What is going with the SG Trend Index?
50:20 - How trend followers classify themselves
01:02:00 - End of part 1
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Right…
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IL22: The Fund - The Other Side of Dalio & Bridgewater ft. Rob Copeland
20 december 2023 · 46 min
In this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for years as a Wall Street Journal reporter paints a radically different picture. Instead of encouraging truth, Copeland’s book documents a rigged feedback system that keeps Dalio permanently at the top and a culture where fear of upsetting Dalio suppresses the truth rather than encourages it. Copeland also claims that Bridgewater’s investment process is far less systematic than it claims, with Dalio ‘calling the shots’. Bridgewater strongly disputes all of these conclusions. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Rob Copeland and his book
04:37 - Copelands's relation to Ray Dalio and how the book started
09:14 - How Copeland reacted to lawsuit threats
11:03 - The logic behind the "bas…
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SI274: Can You Time Trend Following? ft. Nick Baltas
16 december 2023 · 1 uur 6 min
Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “good enough” performance, the future of the 60/40 portfolio and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:10 - What's been on our radar recently?
05:09 - Industry performance update
06:51 - Q1, Nicolas: Can you replace price with sharpe and trend follow that input instead?
17:52 - Q2, Andrew: Is there any validity in having additional accelerators in a system and how would it be used?
25:03 - Article: Are trend following CTAs truly long volatility?
33:26 - Article: Breaking bad trends
42:19 - Know when to be long and short
45:15 - Article: Managed futures rotation
52:40 - Sometimes good enough is good enough
57:02 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio
01:03:57 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK 274: Are TF CTAs truly…
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GAL07: Avoiding Apocalypse Through Quantum Physics & AI ft. Klee Irwin
13 december 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
AI is stealing the headlines with what seems like wave after wave of breakthroughs, but running parallel to this are equally rapid advancements in quantum physics and our understanding of reality. Listen in on this complex yet nuanced conversation with Klee Irwin, Founder of Quantum Gravity Research as he shares his views on physics, AI, and the accelerating course humanity finds itself on, and how it ties in to us as investors. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Klee on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:31 - Introduction to Klee Irwin
07:43 - Quantum technology and the double-slit experiment
23:53 - The retro causality experiment
26:49 - Understanding the self-simulation hypothesis
50:16 - What is going on with AI?
59:48 - Where can you follow Klee Irwin?
01:02:10 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things …
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SI273: Unraveling the Mystery of Complex Adaptive Systems ft. Richard Brennan
9 december 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
How do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:08 - Industry performance update
08:21 - Q1, Adam: In terms of loose pants, how loose is too loose?
13:36 - Trading with different models
15:42 - Adam Q2: What is a reasonable sample size in real trade observations, to compare against backtest statistics?
18:23 - A deep dive into complex adaptive systems (CAS)
20:29 - The 5 properties of CAS
25:24 - Examples of non-linearty in financial markets
30:50 - Emerging properties in financial markets
33:59 - Self organization
36:33 - Adaption and evolution
40:10 - Feedback loops
43:11 - What does CAS and trend following have in common?
49:38 - The limitations of traditional statistics
01:01:14 - Summing it all up
01:04:48 - What's ne…
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ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly
6 december 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow David on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly
05:44 - What has become of the recession?
08:38 - Are we missing an accident?
11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?
13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?
14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?
17:15 -…
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SI272: Disrupting the Asset Management Industry ft. Andrew Beer
2 december 2023 · 1 uur 15 min
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, who helps us uncover why managed futures have been struggling in 2023 and and what makes this year so different from 2022. We discuss the history of replication strategies all the way back to its origins and the intricacies of Andrew’s own replication strategy, and how disruptions have change the asset management industry and if the replicators are now facing their own competition from more pure CTA ETF offerings. We debate if Managed Futures have been "commoditized" and how the 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback this year and if 2022 was just a "fluke". Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:35 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:04 - Industry performance update
08:08 - How bad 2023 is for managed futures?
13:19 - A turn away from trend?
18:29 - Timeframe and lookback in CTA replication
27:02 - The details of Andrew's trading approach
33:01 - How increased competition impacts Andrew's trading
41:31 - How low can you go, when it comes to fees?
48:17 - The great underestimated risk
51:30 - What drives asset flows?
01:00:04 - Is 60/40 back on track?
01:07:13 - Just look at the AUM
01:11:15 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're …
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OI03: The inner workings of a High-Frequency Strategy ft. Anant Jatia
29 november 2023 · 1 uur 1 min
Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Anant on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Anant Jatia
06:39 - Anant's experience from working at AQR
08:46 - How did Anant's firm evolve over time?
10:44 - How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?
14:33 - What is their current trading strategy?
17:07 - An example of one of their trades
21:17 - Staying away from the physical side
23:33 - Tracking the market and executing trades
27:18 - Managing the cost of trades
29:58 - How did they get through the…
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SI271: Can Slippage be a Source of Alpha? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
25 november 2023 · 1 uur 9 min
Today, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up debating how much slippage a trend follower should expect and if slippage can be turned into a new source of alpha. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?
02:20 - Industry performance update
04:51 - What is going on in the markets?
09:01 - Reverse engineering the CTAs
11:45 - Confusion in the markets
14:38 - Are we being lied to about inflation?
20:24 - Mixed signals
22:14 - What are investors asking in meetings at the moment?
25:33 - Modeling with personality
32:25 - Losers create diversification
36:13 - Things that are often being forgotten
38:15 - Narratives and explanatory depth
47:04 - Are short-term models better than longer-term models?
50:34 - Does new = better?
56:42 - Getting the backtest an…
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GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins
22 november 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Dario on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins
07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?
12:27 - Where are we now?
17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?
23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?
26:37 - A sticky inflation
28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?
32:52 - A concern for real-estate?
38:03 - What is the next de…
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SI270: CPI, Trend Reversals & Dalio on US-China War ft. Alan Dunne
18 november 2023 · 1 uur 6 min
Today, we are joined by Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation, covering pressing global macro issues, the latest trend following research, JP Morgan's outlook for the 60/40 portfolio, following a week dominated by the release of the CPI numbers. We discuss how and why Ray Dalio believes the hot war between the US and China is changing and why the US is seeing an unusually low savings rate at the moment and why Alan believes there are plenty of possibilities in the non-trend space. We also discuss the benefits that trend following can add to your portfolio, how Blackstone is boosting the leverage in one of its Credit Funds...and if this seems like a good idea and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:08 - What has been on our radar recently?
09:44 - Industry performance update
15:33 - A new war in sight?
21:17 - News about the US savings rate
23:54 - A positive outlook for productivity?
30:13 - CFM paper on the benefit of non-trend strategies
41:57 - J.P. Morgan paper on the outlook of the 60/40 portfolio
50:28 - Quantica paper on trend vs global tactical asset allocation
58:12 - FT article on Blackstone borrowing to boost lending power
01:03:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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OI02: Are QI Strategies Sustainable? ft. Maia Mathieson & Faheem Osman
15 november 2023 · 56 min
Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman, both Managing Directors at Macquarie Bank in London speak with Moritz Seibert about the bank’s growing Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) business and how their rules-based indices can help investors to efficiently access various risk premium strategies across asset classes. Maia and Faheem explain the key return drivers behind their commodity-focused strategies, for example curve carry and congestion, and explain why they believe these to be structurally sustainable. We also discuss their client base and how the Macquarie QIS team focuses on designing robust indices that are not curve-fit to historical data. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Maia on LinkedIn
Follow Faheem on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Maia & Faheem
08:48 - What are the most popular return drivers?
11:35 - What is driving carry trading?
15:10 - When does carry trading stop working?
17:23 - Combing strategies for more diversification
20:26 - Why does the volatility carry factor exist in the commodity space?
22:52 - How do they have an advantage over their competitors?
24:40 - What is their core client base?
28:38 - How are they giving their clients an edge?
30:25 - Concerns about the commodity space
32:30 - How th…
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SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski
12 november 2023 · 57 min
Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?
04:24 - A precursor for the conversation
05:21 - Industry performance update
07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective
11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"
16:06 - The results of the paper
21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference
24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted
26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?
33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?
35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?
37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change
42:52 - Different people, different perspectives
46:39 - Doing what happens next
48:12 - Best practices when a…
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GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni
8 november 2023 · 56 min
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Edward on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini
07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?
11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?
14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?
19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?
25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis
29:08 - Will AI save us?
32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth
36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?
41:40 - The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?
44:06 - China and Japan being d…
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SI268: Are Investors Wrongly Positioned for the New World Order? ft. Cem Karsan
4 november 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Cem Karsan returns to help us uncover the art of tail hedging and whether he views the January 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point and start of a new bear market. We discuss the latest events in the macro space, especially regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and how it impacts markets, why Niels believes we are probably heading towards a world where investors are completely wrongly positioned and why it is important to think differently when it comes to asset allocation. Lastly, Cem explains how the incoming holiday season acts as a volatility compression mechanism, what he took away from the recent CBOE RMC Conference and much more. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:08 - What has been on Cem's radar recently?
03:15 - Industry performance update
05:25 - Q1, Tim: What systematic strategies would Cem suggest for hedging risk from a risk premia strategy with a trend following bias?
12:20 - Q2, Rick: Does Cem view the Jan 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point (to the downside)?
15:52 - What is new in the macro space?
23:16 - Is the MOVE index behaving as it should?
27:43 - Is Japan a joker when it comes to interest rates?
32:17 - Hidden dangers?
36:12 - Wars - a driver of spending, deficits and inflation
40:28 - What current…
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OI1: Cracking the Code of Commodity Spread Trading ft. Mauritz van den Worm
1 november 2023 · 1 uur 1 min
You are invited to an eye-opening conversation with Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by Moritz Seibert. In this inaugural episode of the Open Interest series, Mauritz takes us on a journey through the fascinating world of commodity spreads. We explore not only calendar spreads but also delve into cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads. Lees meer
Discover how PolarStar navigates the intricate South African commodity markets and the critical role they play in their portfolio. Additionally, Mauritz shares an intriguing firsthand account of PolarStar's position in the US versus European grain spreads at the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Learn how a simultaneous limit-up in the US and limit-down in Europe led to what Mauritz humorously refers to as "a few gray hairs." This is a must-listen for anyone intrigued by the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Mauritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to the new series
03:28 - Introduction to Mauritz van den Worm and PolarStar Management
09:53 - A deep dive into the South African market
16:26 - What kind …
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SI267: A Masterclass in Absolute vs Cross Sectional Momentum ft. Richard Brennan
28 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 26 min
In today’s episode, Richard Brennan takes us on a tour around the Australian economy and how the investment landscape is changing. We also discuss how different investment philosophies demand different interpretations and why the “one size fits all” approach does not exist, how cross-sectional momentum differs from absolute momentum. Lastly, we discuss why Richard uses an ensemble of trend following systems and why he always strives for maximum diversification, and why I feel we should not introduce divisiveness in the trend following industry and much more. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What is happening in Australia at the moment?
07:53 - The investment landscape is changing
09:57 - Best UCITS Managed Futures Fund revealed
13:17 - Industry performance update
16:25 - Why does OJ keep rising?
19:54 - There is no "one size fits all" approaches
26:44 - How does cross-sectional momentum work?
31:12 - The importance of correlation
40:26 - Nuancing "treating all markets equally"
48:00 - The use of continuous signals
53:03 - How does absolute momentum works?
59:13 - Discussing sample size
01:01:30 - The principle of no selection bias
01:04:16 - Why Rich uses traditional risk measures
01:06:56 - Letting profits run to their con…
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ALO17: Inflation, Volatility, and AI: Ruffer's Bold Market Insights ft. Matt Smith
25 oktober 2023 · 59 min
Today we are joined by Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer for a fascinating discussion on global markets, asset allocation and how history can guide us in the current global macro landscape. Matt explains why Ruffer is defensively positioned at the moment, why he is sceptical of the AI rally in stocks in recent months and where is he sees opportunity in markets at the moment. We discuss the secular outlook for inflation and why Matt believes we sill see greater volatility and a trend higher in inflation over time and what that means for asset allocation. We also delve into the parallels between the current investing and global macro environment versus the past particularly the period between 1940 and 1970 and hear about some of the key books that have influenced Matt as an investor. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Matt on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:54 - Introduction to Matt Smith
07:51 - The resilience of the economy
11:50 - Matt's portfolio construction process
16:23 - Skepticism about the goldilocks
21:57 - The outlook for inflation
30:56 - The risk and fear of structural inflation
40:27 - What we can learn from history
46:19 - The process of finding insights from history
51:09 - Matt's perspective on financial repression
54:57 - Ad…
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SI266: Constructing and Assessing Trading Strategies ft. Rob Carver
21 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Rob Carver is back this week speaking with Alan Dunne about constructing and assessing trend following and non-trend following trading strategies. We delve into mean reversion strategies and over what time frames they might be effective and what are the pitfalls in trying to combine trend following with mean reversion. We also discuss the theory and reality of the benefits of faster trend following, Rob’s experience of this and his approach avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. We wrap up with some thoughts on AHL’s Trend ETF and how a strategy trading 20 markets might perform versus a more diversified program. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:00 - Update on recent events?
09:13 - Industry performance update
09:38 - Why is it going so well for Rob?
12:15 - The ongoing debate on term premia
17:40 - Returns in bonds versus equities
21:13 - Q1, Andrej: What's your take on systematic strategies complimenting trend?
35:22 - Q2, Harry: Can you speak about the lure of high frequency strategies for traders with modest capital?
40:46 - The challenges of fast trend following
42:15 - Trading with different account sizes
45:07 - Q3, Ravi: Techniques to prevent overfitting of a strategy
51:45 - Usin…
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GAL6: UAPs - What Are We Really Dealing With? ft. Larry Hancock
18 oktober 2023 · 1 uur
There is no secret more carefully guarded than that of how to make atomic weapons. Nuclear technology can power us with clean energy or destroy all of human civilization. It has been alleged for decades that there is a correlation between UAP encounters and nukes, a suggestion that seems intuitive because if an advanced civilization was monitoring us, any breakthroughs in nuclear physics would certainly represent a key developmental milestone. In this episode join our Galactic Macro series host David Dorr as he interviews Larry Hancock, one of the preeminent scientific investigators into UAPs and the co-author of UAP Pattern Recognition Study 1945-1975 US Military Warfare Complex and UAP Indications Analysis, 1945-1975 United States Atomic Warfare Complex. Larry gives us a sobering analysis of the data and the facts which make it clear that we are not alone. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Buy Larry's books here.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:27 - Introduction to Larry Hancock
05:34 - How classified programs work in the U.S
13:23 - Has the Air Force lied about UAP observations?
17:09 - UAP activity around nuclear technology
22:33 - What are "they" interested in?
24:03 - The physics of UAPs
29:35 - Are UAP crashes real?
34:19 - The unusualness of the UAP Disclosu…
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SI265: Deep Dive Into Non-Trend Complementary Strategies ft. Nick Baltas
14 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:48 - What has caught our attention in markets?
04:08 - Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies
09:59 - What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?
17:28 - Adding carry to trend
22:52 - How to use utility functions
25:08 - Defining the variables
28:09 - Advice for implementing a carry strategy
36:22 - Nick's perspective on reversion strategies
40:21 - Moving beyond single stocks
47:48 - Skewness in commodities
54:30 - How climate change impacts investment strategies
Copyright © …
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ALO16: Beyond 60-40... A Bold Approach to Asset Allocation ft. Troy Gayeski
11 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Troy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski
11:36 - A top-down macro perspective
19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio
26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?
30:47 - Analyzing the alt space
35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate
40:00 - An overweight of privates?
44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?
46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space
52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio
55:09 - Is…
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SI264: The Evolution of the Trend Following Industry ft. Andrew Beer & Alan Dunne
7 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Andrew Beer joins us to discuss a recent research report from Morningstar (called Market Wizards Wave Their Wands but Investors Miss the Magic) which highlights the challenges investors have in timing managed futures allocations. We get Andrew’s perspective on the evolution of the managed futures industry, particularly the evolving ETF and UCITS markets and discuss whether the CTA industry is on the road to commoditisation. We wrap up discussing a recent FT article which suggests more attractive hedge fund manager may underperform…but may be more successful in raising assets. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What's been on our radar recently?
06:02 - A growing appetite for trend following?
10:45 - Who is to blame?
15:03 - Commoditization in managed futures
20:16 - Is commoditization the "right" word?
21:38 - The best way to express an equity value strategy
25:05 - How the SG Trend Index has evolved over time
30:10 - The evolution of the trend following industry
37:01 - A case of market segmentation?
40:00 - Are ETFs the future?
46:27 - Managed futures and trend following in Europe
52:24 - A discussion on fees
54:54 - Capacity - a reason for concern?
58:59 - The Alpha of Ugliness
Copyright © …
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GM51: Allocating Assets when Goldilocks Inverse ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
4 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:33 - Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann
04:05 - The global macro perspective
08:13 - The changing relationship between stocks and bonds
12:25 - Structural and cyclical issues
21:35 - Is this inflation different?
28:15 - The lag of structural effects
32:04 - The age of abundance
36:45 - Time to shift back to active management
43:10 - The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy
52:21 - A move away from bonds and how it will affect us
01:00:06 - Does the interest cycle exist?
01:00:52 - The Dynamic Balanced Bear
01:03:21 - Final thoughts…
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SI263: Changes aren't permanent, but change is ft. Mark Rzepczynski
30 september 2023 · 1 uur 6 min
Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:09 - What's on Mark's radar righ now?
07:25 - Multi-strategies and passthrough fees
19:13 - Industry performance update
22:28 - How is the industry holding up?
25:47 - Big moves in the commodity space
28:55 - Performance numbers
30:02 - The more things change, the more they stay the same
41:04 - Imagine the unimaginable
46:42 - How psychology impacts markets
53:45 - When and when not to be a trend follower
59:49 - A chronological snobbery?
01:04:03 - Important announcement
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more t…
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GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson
27 september 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Helen on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson
06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?
10:15 - The outlook for Europe…
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SI262: Opportunities in FX fueled by the FED ft. Alan Dunne
23 september 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently?
04:55 - Industry performance update
08:16 - Living with high public debt
20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt
24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved
32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets?
37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions?
40:36 - Where returns may go from here?
48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?
51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event
59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes
01:00:29 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks th…
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IL21: How China Manages Their FX Reserves ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu
20 september 2023 · 59 min
In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry
07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about
19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment
24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets
33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation
37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis
58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds
01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams
01:…
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SI261: The Biggest Story in Asset Allocation ft. Nick Baltas
16 september 2023 · 59 min
Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?
03:02 - Industry performance update
04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes
10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following
19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)
23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation
27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers
35:27 - Significant shifts in …
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GM49: Unveiling the Power of Confidence ft. Peter Atwater
13 september 2023 · 1 uur 13 min
Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Peter on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?
04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability
06:19 - Being in the present
07:57 - Understanding the confidence map
12:08 - How to become confident
13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience
17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant
17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience
21:23 - Map it out
22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?
28:05 - The generational shift
30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?
36:15 - Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?
42:57 - When does panic occur?
44:28 - Does it apply to markets as well?
…
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SI260: The Voldemort of the Asset Management Business ft. Andrew Beer
9 september 2023 · 1 uur 17 min
Is the economy actually doing better than we expected? This week we are joined by Andrew Beer, where we discuss the use of replication strategies in the current economic environment and how many markets/factors you should include, how managers can differentiate themselves from each other and the outlook for growth in the CTA industry. We also discuss the challenges of the Lemming effect in investing and today’s obsession with multi-strategy hedge funds, the capacity of the trend following industry and much more. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:20 - What has happened recently?
05:51 - Industry performance update?
07:13 - Are managed futures funds are right for replication?
13:55 - How did they test it?
17:23 - Are economies becoming less synchronised?
25:02 - How many markets are enough for replication?
29:01 - Why are people going into alternative markets?
32:58 - Have managers become more different or similar?
41:02 - Industry disruptions - how is Andrew different?
47:22 - Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years
54:44 - How Andrew resist making changes to his replication strategy
56:54 - Train wreck in hedge fund land
01:04:02 - How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses?
01:08:25 - The challenges of the industry
…
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GAL05: Pumping the BRICS Agenda & Hidden Risks ft. Nelson Rangel
6 september 2023 · 59 min
In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations! Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Nelson on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:32 - Introduction to Nelson Rangel
08:09 - Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory
12:29 - A look around the globe
17:37 - Reflecting on the U.S debt
21:17 - How is the next decade unfolding for China?
25:29 - The BRICs taking over the monetary system
30:38 - Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?
34:58 - Being adaptable to new scenarios
39:26 - Advice for investing in South America
48:14 - News about UAPs (UFOs)
56:24 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you'r…
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SI259: Trend Following & the New Normal ft. Katy Kaminski
2 september 2023 · 1 uur 1 min
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:43 - Industry performance update
06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems
13:54 - Taking the bonds out?
16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters
19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?
23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy
26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?
32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?
36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?
37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?
40:32 - Are there different types of crises?
45:55 - A global macro perspective
51:…
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GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao
30 augustus 2023 · 57 min
Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Chen on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?
06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?
11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?
16:44 - The outlook for inflation
19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?
26:07 - Rates going back to zero?
28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth
31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production
32:57 - China - a deflationary force
38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?
39:29 - Concer…
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SI258: Absolute Momentum in a Chaotic Environment ft. Richard Brennan
26 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 26 min
Richard Brennan is back to discuss the lurking uncertainty in the economy and take a deep dive into absolute momentum. What is it, how is it used and how does it relate to trend following? How does complex systems really function and evolve over time and what role does correlation play in system design? And financial markets is in fact chaotic systems, then how do predictive modellers trade them? Is there an edge from price following techniques in their ability to trade in highly complex and sometimes chaotic environment? Why noise is not as random as it might occur, how risk should be calculated in complex systems and much more. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - What has happened since last conversation?
08:04 - Industry perfomance update
14:08 - Q1, Correy: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, as most are, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes?
20:06 - A deep dive into absolute momentum
30:30 - Different implementations, same results
45:47 - The role of correlation
50:56 - Calculating risk in complicated systems
01:14:10 - The weakness of the Sharpe Ratio
01:21:04 - Know your manager well
01:24:19 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC …
-
IL20: How to Survive the Current Fourth Turning ft. Neil Howe
23 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 22 min
Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe
03:43 - What characterise each turning?
17:53 - A generation cliff
25:18 - The importance of the financial crisis in 2008
27:55 - Cycles are non linear
30:08 - Every crisis has a catalyst
35:56 - A polarised and div…
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SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan
19 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:56 - What has caught Cem's attention recently?
03:14 - Volatility and seasonal patterns
08:27 - Industry performance update
09:34 - Is vol trading predictable?
17:15 - Why are vol spikes becoming shorter?
20:19 - Cem's take on the fourth turning
33:12 - Why is demographics so critical today?
39:04 - A tug of war between flows and macro
50:28 - A new all time high for stocks?
52:07 - Major moves in markets
01:00:58 - Too bullish too soon?
01:03:03 - Be flexible, be water
01:06:07 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that co…
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GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin
16 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 1 min
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Peter on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin
05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy
10:14 - Where is inflation heading?
16:24 - A wrong prediction?
20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?
24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?
27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?
31:32 - Challenges in the credit space
33:33 - The implications of high valuations
36:08 - Potential weaknesses in the system
40:45 - Looking outside of the U.S.
44:43 - The outl…
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SI256: Investor Behaviour & the How to Deal with Transaction Costs ft. Mark Rzepczynski
12 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Mark Rzepczynski is back to tackle some important topics relating to systematic trading. We discuss whether there is a best time of the year to trade and what has been driving the markets recently, how high interest rates and uncertainty affect investor behaviour, dispersion within markets and how it influences your trend following return. We also discuss quant research, the motivated reasoning bias and the importance of being open minded as a researcher to find better ways of being a trend follower, ways of dealing with transaction costs when building models, optimal ways of performing backtests and much more. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:38 - Is there a best time to trade?
05:07 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?
08:36 - Industry performance update
10:01 - Will we see a change in investor behaviour?
17:04 - The benefit of cash
21:11 - Are guaranteed products making a comeback?
26:18 - The dispersion within markets
32:05 - The Ex ante and Ex post problem for quant research
39:23 - Stay open minded
43:46 - Dealing with transaction costs
56:53 - The road to robust models
01:00:37 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you …
-
IL19: Revolutionary Technology & the Coming Economic Boom ft. Mark P. Mills
9 augustus 2023 · 1 uur
Mark Mills joins us to discuss his new book The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern’s engineering school and a strategic partner in energy-tech venture fund Montrose Lane. In our conversation Mark explains how advances on three fronts - information, machines and materials - are converging in a way that is going to propel a surge in economic growth and productivity. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Mark on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:12 - Introduction to Mark Mills and his book
10:00 - What is meant by "the cloud"?
15:46 - The Cloud Revolution
21:44 - Collecting data with AI
28:10 - What is computational material and how is it used?
36:05 - Designing material with AI
40:08 - Getting more out of technology
48:43 - Working with robots
52:21 - Increasing productivity in health care
57:55 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some…
-
SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne
5 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 11 min
Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?
03:54 - The big macro picture
12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming
17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?
21:13 - A fear of Japanification
26:28 - Industry performance update
28:39 - A period of dispersion
33:36 - Calculating the return expectations
41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following
47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments
55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook
01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification
01:08:34 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are …
-
GAL04: Expanding Your Consciousness and Reality ft. Mark Gober
2 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Do you ever have that feeling someone is staring at you? You turn around and find someone looking at you. What causes that? We get the answer in this episode of our Galactic Macro series as we sit down with Mark Gober, author, and board director at Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell’s Institute of Noetic Sciences. Mark explains to us the science behind extra sensory perception, near death experiences, UAP and then shows the one thing they all have in common - consciousness, the ultimate technology. You won’t want to miss this fascinating conversation where we explore these new frontiers. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:36 - Introduction to Mark Gober
07:13 - Constructing a new reality
11:18 - Mark's journey with libertarianism
17:55 - Understanding consciousness
23:33 - Near death experiences and the science behind
27:14 - The shared death experiences
28:51 - What is terminal lucidity?
31:50 - The role of psychic abilities
38:42 - The road to studying UFOs
44:05 - UAP encounters are nothing new
49:23 - The Rendlesham Forest case
52:33 - Where is this all going?
56:55 - Who is Robert Bigelow?
01:00:45 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're…
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TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital
31 juli 2023 · 1 uur 10 min
Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.
Episode Timestamps:
02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital
07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings
12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy
17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering
22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program
26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters
32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe?
39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process
44:41 - The challenges of working with clients
48:51 - What if everyone was a tre…
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SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas
29 juli 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Nick Baltas returns to discuss single stock trend momentum dynamics and more. With his usual academic elegance, Nick dives into Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Static vs. Dynamic positioning, how to apply each type in your trading, and why one is not “better” than the other, the key factors of portfolio construction and why the difference between cross-sectional and time-series momentum is important to understand. We also discuss trend following in single stocks and why it is a complicated matter, single stock factors trend as well CTA strategies inside ETF wrappers...the pros and cons and much more. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:36 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?
06:28 - Industry performance update
07:28 - Dynamic vs. Static positioning
17:54 - Is one better than the other?
22:35 - The objective of Dynamic positioning
29:35 - Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum: What Is the Difference?
43:57 - AQR paper on single stock factor trend
50:17 - CTA strategies inside and ETF wrapper...a good idea?
01:00:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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ALO15: Exploring Today's Investment Opportunities ft. Christopher Zook
26 juli 2023 · 1 uur 7 min
Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Christopher on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook
05:11 - Zook's current view on the markets and economy
09:06 - The outlook for real estate
12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI
16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble?
18:45 - Options trading - a key drive…
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SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker
22 juli 2023 · 1 uur 14 min
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately?
04:38 - Industry performance update
05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing
10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be?
13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from?
16:35 - The best approach to trading markets
23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks
27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading
30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase?
33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities?
40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets?
44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble?
46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees
52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees
54:26 - Trend Following vs Manage…
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GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan
19 juli 2023 · 1 uur 20 min
When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Paul on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan
13:58 - The current state of Syria
18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts
24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable?
27:13 - The challenges that China is facing
29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy?
32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing?
35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference
44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics
50:57 - The risk of complex technology
56:05 - How …
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SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver
15 juli 2023 · 1 uur 7 min
Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Update of the week
07:50 - Industry performance update
10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system?
18:52 - Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea?
28:16 - Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4?
34:13 - Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems
40:46 - Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what!
45:12 - Trading safely
52:22 - Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space
57:37 - Paper: A different point of skew
01:05:04 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you i…
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IL18: We Need to Talk About Inflation ft. Stephen King
12 juli 2023 · 1 uur 15 min
HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book
09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money
13:21 - Can it be deflationary?
17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect
30:29 - The unfairness of inflation
37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?
46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation bias
51:04 - Is the radar still switched off?
52:49 - A collapse in money supply?
55:50 - Are central banks acting too slow?
58:31 - The current state of supply conditions
01:02:26 - The relations…