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SI251: A Deep Dive Into Models and Systems ft. Richard Brennan
8 juli 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Richard Brennan returns for a true trend following conversation where we dive deep into the construction of models and systems. We discuss why long-term trading are often preferred by many trend followers and what we can learn from acoustics and physics in terms of noise and signals, how to get the most diversification from highly correlated markets through system design and why you should trade with an ensemble of markets. We also discuss how complex adaptive systems evolve over time, how to understand transitions events and much more. Lees meer
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- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - An update on the Australian economy
02:50 - A global macro perspective
05:38 - Industry performance update
08:39 - A bias towards long term models?
20:28 - Emergent structures and the butterfly effect
25:08 - Something is happening at the South Pole
26:01 - Getting diversification out of highly correlated markets
39:23 - Understanding complex adaptive systems
54:05 - The stability of markets
57:17 - Applying different rules to different markets
01:00:32 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
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GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
5 juli 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Louis on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave
05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?
10:40 - When is the recession coming?
13:13 - The outlook for inflation
18:36 - The problem with designification
21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy
27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?
31:31 - Looki…
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SI250: Tour de Volatility ft. Cem Karsan
1 juli 2023 · 1 uur
Cem Karsan joins me for a tour of the current volatility and macro environment, where we take a deep dive into where markets and economy are heading. We discuss the potential of the economy going into stagflation and why many investors might not be prepared for what is to come, the unpredictable volatility environment and how technology like AI is affecting markets. We also discuss the potential dangers of zero day options and how to position yourself appropriately for the markets, how to prepare for the upcoming summer holidays and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:45 - The global macro perspective
03:07 - Industry performance update
04:48 - Reviewing the first half of the year
09:14 - A deep dive into markets
24:37 - Preparing for a major blowup
39:24 - Zero day options - a loaded gun?
45:36 - Best Ever 1st half for NASDAQ
48:27 - Preparing for summer holidays
53:35 - Are CTAs and trend followers are pushing the markets higher?
56:43 - Advice when heading into holidays
58:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put …
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GAL02: The Blind Spot of AI & UAPs ft. Izabella Kaminska & Dario Garcia Garner
28 juni 2023 · 1 uur 16 min
There are few instincts sharper than those of a talented journalist. Izabella Kaminska, founder and editor of The Blind Spot, and her colleague Dario Garcia Giner have those instincts in spades. While still at the Financial Times, on December 10, 2021, Izabella penned a thought provoking article titled Do portfolios have a UAP risk?. Long before anyone was talking about UAP in the financial sector Izabella recognized that this taboo subject could impact markets and was worth paying attention to. That article led to research analyst Dario Garcia Giner reaching out and joining Izabella at The Blind Spot where they continue their work uncovering interesting and important corners of markets that remain overlooked. Listen in as we discuss with Izabella and Dario their perspectives on UAP, geopolitics, and the complexity of understanding and managing risk in a sci-fi like world. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Izabella on Twitter.
Follow The Blind Spot.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:33 - What have UAPs even to do with finance?
09:26 - When will UAPs become a common risk disclosure?
15:59 - Who is Ryan Graves and why is he important?
19:15 - Their reaction to Politico article by Chris Mellon
26:20 - Classified information, lacking coverage …
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SI249: Unfulfilled Expectations in 1st Half of 2023 ft. Mark Rzepczynski
24 juni 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins me to discuss momentum gap and why momentum is a core component of all markets, the concept of "stretch" and when to enter and exit trades at the right time, dislocations in markets and how AI may or may not affect the trend following space. We then review all the things we were "promised" would happen in the first half of 2023...but did not! And to round things off, we dive into what causes models to fail and why there are many ways to interpret the success of a model, the challenge of predicting markets and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What happened this week?
03:48 - Industry performance update
05:21 - Article on momentum gap
16:46 - Getting the entry and exit right
23:25 - What did not happen this year?
32:02 - AI and trend following
35:48 - Advice on using AI and machine learning
42:59 - Failure of models
52:19 - The challenge of evaluating models
56:28 - Being macro aware
01:00:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have lea…
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GAL01: Galactic Macro...The New Investment Frontier ft. Jay Anderson
21 juni 2023 · 1 uur 18 min
2023 is a year for the record books as world changing technologies such as AI once believed to be science fiction become science fact. The most exotic technologies, however, are thought to be related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon and may also have an AI connection. At the vanguard of the new generation of UAP researchers is Jay Anderson. He kicks off our Galactic Macro series with David Dorr as they discuss the breathtaking disclosures coming out of the U.S. Pentagon and connect the dots to unraveling a mystery that may be as old as humanity itself. What will be revealed in the new physics displayed by UAP and documented by the world's best military signal intelligence systems? Has the U.S., Russia, China or anyone else made breakthroughs in physics that are not yet publicly known? Are we alone? The implications of what we discuss not only could impact every aspect of financial markets, they could impact every aspect of how we view our place in the universe. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Jay and Project Unity on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:08 - Introduction to Jay Andersen and Project Unity
08:50 - The tipping point
20:51 - An ever-changing phenomenon
29:29 - Increasing encounters - why now?
37:41 - The importance of Wright-Patterson Air …
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SI248: Trend Following, AI & Mastering Risk Management ft. Alan Dunne
17 juni 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Alan Dunne returns to the show following a busy week of Fed action and economic activity. We discuss how technology like artificial intelligence impacts the economy and investors, both currently and in the future, the use of machine learning trend following and why it is important to be aware of your own biases. We also discuss what constitutes good risk management and why risk management is key to any successful investor, the evolution of risk management and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:58 - The big macro picture
13:25 - Industry performance update
16:33 - Artificial Intelligence - friend or foe?
28:00 - Using AI in trend following
32:40 - Katy Kaminski paper on bonds
39:36 - Being aware of your own biases
44:49 - Quantica paper on protection and returns
48:35 - Transtrend paper - volatility vs. drawdowns
53:24 - Risk management - the secret sauce?
57:28 - The evolution of risk management
01:03:24 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more tha…
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GM45: A Geopolitical Mosh Pit ft. Michael Kao
14 juni 2023 · 1 uur
As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Michael on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - The big macro picture
14:09 - The debt problem in China
20:39 - The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict
24:57 - Kao's view on supply and demand
31:17 - How does Fed power affect oil?
38:41 - A complicated dynamic
41:54 - Can we actually trust anyone?
45:29 - The shadow banking system and refinancing risk
48:53 - A structural problem
51:59 - Reimagining safe assets
58:27 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investmen…
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SI247: What is Smart Diversification? ft. Nick Baltas
10 juni 2023 · 1 uur 10 min
Today, Nick Baltas return to the show for a look at some recent published research papers by our friends over at Quantica and AQR. Despite our technical difficulties with my audio and notes...we discuss the timing and speed of executing trades and the pros and cons of trend following compared to stocks and bonds, how to achieve the best protection whilst maximizing returns during times of trouble in equities or higher interest rates and why short term strategies does not necessarily give you better protection, nor better returns. We also discuss the similarities and differences between trend following and economic trend and the importance of luck, why you get what you pay for in terms of manager performance and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:10 - What happened this week?
03:24 - Industry performance update
05:07 - Q1, David: About the speed of execution
10:43 - Q2, Oliver: Trend following vs. stocks and bonds
16:08 - A discussion on smart diversification
22:21 - Shorter term strategies = more protection?
25:22 - The role of lookback
29:07 - Paper on economic trend
36:16 - Trend following vs. economic trend
45:18 - Withstanding the pain of long term trend following
54:16 - Capping equity exposure
56:08 - Is fee reductio…
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GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz
7 juni 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Mika on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz
09:25 - Working with econophysics
10:52 - Finding the perfect size
12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing
13:19 - The macro perspective
16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve
18:46 - A changing environment
21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations
23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures
29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage
31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past?
33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased?
35:31 - How does cross margining work today?
36:51 - W…
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SI246: The BIG CTA ETF Debate ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering
3 juni 2023 · 1 uur 25 min
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Tim Pickering for a heated debate on some of the most important changes that we are seeing in the CTA industry. We discuss how ETFs can be used in the CTA industry and the pros and cons of using indices to represent manager performance, why Tim and Andrew are fundamentally different in how they approach the way retail investors can access CTA strategies and how they disagree on the definition of "pure alpha", the use of replication strategies and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:50 - The macro perspective
03:56 - Industry performance update
06:17 - First CTA to launch a ETF
09:57 - The managed futures index - what and why?
17:40 - Tim's experience with indices
20:15 - Building an asset allocation bucket
22:36 - A discussion on alpha
30:58 - Getting exposure to CTA return streams
37:10 - Why Tim would avoid replication strategies
44:18 - The biggest positions drive performance?
51:45 - Are ETFs reliable?
55:47 - Getting the timing right
01:00:49 - A terrible product?
01:04:26 - Why did Tim's US ETF fail?
01:08:07 - What is alpha?
01:11:00 - Are lower fees better for investors?
01:12:14 - Getting the correlation right
01:13:21 - Question from Oliver
01:15:59 - Teasing the ne…
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ALO14: Investing for a Decade of Dispersion ft. Clint Stone
31 mei 2023 · 1 uur 12 min
Today we are joined by Clint Stone SVP of Investments at the Larry H Miller Company to hear about running an endowment style investment approach at a family office. We discuss Clint’s approach to asset allocation which is focused on long term capital appreciation. A key pillar of the portfolio is a large allocation to private markets and we discuss the rationals for this. We delve into the foundation’s approach to portfolio construction, how to estimate the volatility of private markets exposures and discuss Clint’s belief that the volatility of a private market portfolio may even be lower than a corresponding public market portfolio. We also talk about the challenge of manager selection, what Clint looks for in managers and why he likes both market neutral long/short equity strategies and directional strategies like global macro and trend following in his absolute return portfolio. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Clint on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:48 - Introduction to Clint Stone
07:07 - Their approach to investment
12:12 - A challenging decade for equities?
15:06 - Stone's perspective on equity valuations
18:32 - Building a model and strategy
23:04 - Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio
30:52 - Getting the correlation right
34:1…
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SI245: Which CTA Should You Buy ft. Rob Carver
27 mei 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Rob Carver is back to discuss the economic unpredictability that has defined this year so far and how Rob approaches backtesting his system, how to make a signal continuous in a discrete system and if there are ways to figuring out when is the right time to trend follow. We also unpack what Rob means by “you can’t eat sharpe ratio” and what he would change in his strategy if he had more resources available. We then turn to discuss the CTA industry and how to find out which CTA you should buy, why Niels is skeptical about predicting the performance of a strategy and why you need to know what you don’t know, the absurdity of the debt ceiling and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - Update from Rob
07:13 - Calculating slippage and "midprice"
12:41 - Industry performance update
15:26 - Q1, David: About continuous trading signal construction
20:49 - Hidden Markov models - What and why?
27:34 - Q2.1, Elie: Is there value in relative vol targeting for traders who can't take on leverage?
32:37 - Q2.2, Elie: About alternative ways of rebalancing signals
37:49 - Q3, QuantLurk: What would more resources do to your strategies?
42:41 - Which CTA should you buy?
49:12 - Can you really predict the performance of a strategy?
56:08 - You …
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GM43: On the Verge of Recession ft. David Rosenberg
24 mei 2023 · 1 uur 6 min
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg
08:00 - Rosenberg's research process
11:56 - The importance of historical awareness
25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve
31:16 - Getting the timing right
43:54 - The longer term trajectory
52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels
57:12 - A shift in the political landscape
01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro
01:05:02 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whe…
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TTU144: Turtle Trading 2.0? ft. Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors
22 mei 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
Join us as we sit down with Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors, for an insightful conversation on the evolution of their trading methodology since the early days of the Turtle Program. Discover what sets them apart from competitors and the key factors they believe contribute to a successful CTA. Explore their use of algorithms to balance risk in a volatile market and how trading systems can adapt while staying true to their origins. Gain insights into their approach to managing current market volatility, distinguishing between trend following and momentum, building reliable systems, expanding their market portfolio, and much more. Don't miss this engaging discussion! Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.
Episode Timestamps:
02:19 - Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors
07:30 - Their investment philosophy
10:30 - What differentiates them from their peers?
12:33 - The key to succes
14:06 - Their approach to open equity
17:22 - Staying true to trend following
20:13 - Improving the risk adjusted profile
23:15 - An evolving system
28:19 - Slow or fast?
30:44 - Being aware of volatility
32:44 - Trend following vs. momentum
37:19 - "The technical logic of the system"
40:05 - An adaptive process
43:58 - H…
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SI244: Trend Following - How to Hunt them & Select a Manager ft. Richard Brennan
20 mei 2023 · 58 min
Richard Brennan returns to discuss the idea of applying trend following on a shorter term time frame and why this might not make sense, the most optimal solutions for selecting managers, how to best avoid selection bias in the process and why the validated track record of a fund manager is so important. We also discuss how the analogy of hunting on the savana can be applied to trend following and what a cheetah and a spider can teach us about hunting trends and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - Changes in the podcast format
01:30 - Review of the week
05:03 - Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems
12:48 - A deep dive into manager selection
28:37 - The optimal process and results
30:58 - Diversification in manager selection
33:51 - Hunting the trends
46:29 - The Knowledge Project
55:44 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click He…
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GM42: What's Coming for Oil, Gas, Gold & Metals ft. Adam Rozencwajg
17 mei 2023 · 1 uur 19 min
If you're curious about the state of natural resources in today's market, this episode is for you. Our guest Adam Rozencwajg shares his insights on a wide range of topics when it comes to the global commodity markets. Discover why oil is struggling to surpass $80 despite the OIL Put, OPEC's surprise production cuts, and China's reopening. We also explore why US and European Nat Gas prices have yet to converge, and the outlook for Gold as it sits close to all-time highs. Finally, we discuss the future of base metals and what we can expect in the coming months. Don't miss out on this engaging episode! Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - What has happened since our previous conversation?
06:03 - Making sense of the oil market
10:44 - Signs of a put on the oil market
16:38 - The situation with natural gas
25:13 - Has the gas situation been improved?
32:42 - Nuclear energy - is it a viable solution?
46:51 - The outlook for gold
52:51 - The mechanisms of the capital cycles
01:00:45 - The state of metals
01:04:18 - A metal crisis?
01:06:24 - Centralised commodities and rare earths
01:09:53 - Investing in rare earths
01:12:52 - Considerations for owning gold
01:16:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CM…
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SI243: Sell in May and Go Away...Really ft. Cem Karsan
13 mei 2023 · 1 uur 7 min
Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:33 - What happened this week?
06:56 - Industry performance update
08:38 - An interesting inflection point
16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms
21:25 - Why are people short today?
25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?
30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?
36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings
39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing
44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May
49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?
52:22 - The debt problem
01:01:09 - A society in decline
01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold
01:05:42 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're…
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IL17: The Dangers to Democracy ft. Martin Wolf
10 mei 2023 · 54 min
This episode features a discussion with Martin Wolf, the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator and “the world’s preeminent financial journalist”. Wolf’s new book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism explains why the marriage between democracy and capitalism is breaking down, not from external threats but from within. He expands on these internal threats during our conversation, which he believes have the potential to end US democracy in the coming years and in his book he outlines a range of critical reforms we can undertake to avoid this fate. You won't want to miss this thought-provoking conversation. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Martin on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Martin Wolf
07:45 - Why do capitalism and democracy go so well together?
14:46 - The conflicts between capitalism and democracy
18:43 - Is the risk to democracy global?
23:15 - A changed view after the election?
27:29 - Making process in a divided country
35:00 - A sign of desperation
36:58 - Success takes small steps?
44:35 - The importance of local democracies
50:58 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Jo…
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SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski
6 mei 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?
10:59 - Industry performance update
14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?
19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour
25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness
30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets
34:31 - It takes two to crisis
39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?
41:56 - Is price all we need?
50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?
56:39 - Words of estimative probability
01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is
01:02:58 - Skew in trend following
01:05:38 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're rea…
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GM41: Global Macro Face Off ft. Cem Karsan & Alfonso Peccatiello
3 mei 2023 · 1 uur 20 min
If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode! Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alfonso on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - The big macro picture
04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective
14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?
18:23 - A sticky situation
21:53 - A wealth of trades?
26:58 - A secular reality
29:17 - The banking situation
35:16 - A build-up effect
38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?
41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects
46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan
54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage
01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities
01:13:41 - Where is the world heading?
01:17:57 - Final thoughts
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can hel…
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SI241: Trend Following...The Perfect Risk Mitigation Strategy ft. Alan Dunne
28 april 2023 · 1 uur 7 min
Alan Dunne returns to the show for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current global macro environment and the challenges that markets are facing at the moment. We discuss how to approach the percentage allocation to Trend Following when reaching retirement age and the current drawdowns that we see in the trend space, how to use risk mitigation strategies to create a more robust portfolio and how pension funds might end up filling the entire trend following space. We also discuss how Alan would go about constructing an alternative investment portfolio, the outlook for trend following and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:32 - Broad macro observations
10:21 - Consumer confidence and political obstacles
14:44 - Looking towards China
18:53 - Trend following update
24:38 - Q1, Lawrence: What to do when approaching retirement drawdown?
29:53 - Q2, Lawrence: How can smaller investors benefit from allocating to CTAs
31:31 - A trend following rollercoaster
36:33 - Using risk mitigation strategies
45:52 - Risk mitigation in pension funds
50:57 - How to build an Alternative Portfolio?
01:00:06 - What does the future holds for trend following?
01:04:51 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG …
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GM40: The Risk of Volatility Exploding...Soon ft. Cem Karsan
26 april 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Join us for an enlightening conversation with Cem Karsan, where we dive deep into the state of the volatility markets and the risks that come with the current low volatility environment. We explore the lagging effects of FED actions and their impact on the markets, as well as the potential impact of inflation, the upcoming US election season, and the current US debt ceiling situation. Get ready for a thought-provoking discussion on the current state of the markets and the challenges facing investors today. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:08 - The big picture macro view
08:27 - Fed selling Puts and Calls
12:54 - The lag effect
20:31 - The impact of change in demographics
29:49 - The state of the markets - Recession inbound?
38:47 - Sticky CPI - What is causing it?
46:12 - Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?
49:41 - Are we looking at the right Asset Class?
52:26 - Is the equity rally about to end?
54:24 - The Unpinning of Volatility
57:40 - The coming Explosion of Volatility
01:01:44 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put…
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SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas
23 april 2023 · 1 uur 11 min
Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode! Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Looking back on the week
13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series
19:23 - The impact of the SVB event
23:02 - Industry performance update
24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends
35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following
40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?
43:28 - Defending trend following
54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts
57:06 - The trend following narrative
01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital
01:09:34 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK: Direction-of-Cha…
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IL16: False Narratives - A Path to a World of Conflict ft. Stephen Roach
19 april 2023 · 1 uur 1 min
Get ready for a thought-provoking conversation with Stephen Roach, former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley and current Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, as he delves into the deteriorating relationship between China and the US. With his new book "Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives", Stephen unravels the narratives that led to this new Cold War and provides a clear path towards interdependency and healthier economies. With his unique perspective and ability to reach policy makers on both sides, Stephen gives us an insight into the complexity of this relationship and how it can be mended. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:38 - Introduction to Stephen Roach
07:37 - Why are false narratives so prevalent?
12:52 - Stephen's favorite false narrative
17:07 - A dangerous narrative
22:02 - A political backstep?
28:00 - A lack of telecom infrastructure
29:58 - The false narratives of China
40:47 - The fear of containment
45:27 - Potential ways forward
49:15 - The bilateral investment treaty
55:54 - How has Stephen's ideas been received?
57:56 - Thanks for listening
59:13 - Key takeaways …
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TTU143: How to stay Sharpe ft. Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management
17 april 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Metori Capital Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management
04:08 - Their investment philosophy
09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe
18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program
21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations
24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe
27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters
30:18 - Their view on replication
32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers
35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets
39:30 - The risk of alternative markets
41:29 - Looking beyond China
42:18 - Incorporating ESGs with…
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SI239: CTAs Profits from Food Crisis...True or False? ft. Andrew Beer
16 april 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Join us for a riveting conversation with Andrew Beer, where we dive deep into the world of systematic trend following, CTA Replication, and much more. As we explore the current state of central banks, we uncover the challenges that come with investing during periods when yields rise. Andrew shares his insights on why the language used in portfolio management can be misleading and what happens when we can't rely on banks being safe. Then we get into what has been going on in the world of CTA Replication and why Andrew is surprised by the DrawDowns that his fund has experienced in recent months. Finally, we debunk false narratives surrounding hedge funds profiting from the food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and discuss the demonization of capitalism. Don't miss out on this captivating episode! Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:41 - What happened this week?
11:46 - Industry performance update
13:57 - Replication - reasons for concern?
16:58 - Why the current drawdown exceeds that of the benchmark?
23:51 - The challenge of making money when yields rise
32:27 - Do Replication funds really out-perform over time?
40:56 - The challenges of picking a single manager
47:51 - Should you make changes to your model?
53:29 - Gaurdian article …
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GM39: The Secrets of a Natural Resource Speculator ft. Rick Rule
12 april 2023 · 1 uur 22 min
Join us for an insightful and personal conversation with Rick Rule, a renowned investor and speculator with decades of experience in sub $1,000,000,000 market capitalisation public and private issuers in natural resource industries. With a track record of structuring and leading numerous debt and equity issuances for resource companies worldwide, Mr. Rule shares his expertise on navigating the complexities of this unique market. As a sought-after speaker at investment conferences, he offers valuable insights into the natural resource industry's future and how to make informed investment decisions. In this episode, Mr. Rule discusses his personal investment philosophy as well as some of the wildest speculations that he has done in his career. Tune in for an engaging conversation with one of the industry's top experts. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Rick on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:41 - Introduction to Rick Rule
04:16 - Financial experimentation and taking bets
16:35 - Commodities and the state of the economy
28:37 - Themes in resourcable markets
30:47 - Inflation - a political phenomenon?
38:57 - Are we seeing a change in ESGs?
44:26 - The pushback by the lower class
49:48 - Is owning gold becoming pointless?
56:14 - Central banks buying - a…
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TTU142: The Contrarian ft. Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management
10 april 2023 · 1 uur 9 min
Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation! Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management
03:46 - Their investment philosophy
10:00 - A period of challenges
13:26 - Believing in change
15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?
23:02 - Looking back in time
30:42 - The role of short-term trading
38:56 - What drives short-term trading?
42:47 - Being smart with execution
46:09 - Dealing with the downsides
53:53 - Studying the markets
55:49 - The dangers of machine le…
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SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver
8 april 2023 · 1 uur 13 min
Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob. Lees meer
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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:40 - What happened since last time?
09:42 - Industry performance update
10:38 - Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?
13:28 - Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?
20:49 - Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend?
25:41 - Libor Futures being replaced
30:41 - Blogpost about estimating standard deviation
38:01 - Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction
43:37 - Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging
56:22 - Reasons Not to trend follow
01:09:50 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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GM38: Debt, Stagnation and Policy Responses ft. Barry Eichengreen
5 april 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade. Lees meer
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen
08:17 - A potential misuse of history
11:26 - A lesson forgotten?
14:25 - Are things starting to break?
16:49 - A lesson learned
18:44 - Should we be concerned?
22:19 - Are crises inevitable?
24:32 - Is the dollar under threat?
30:10 - The need for safe assets
36:02 - The st…
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TTU141: The Alternative Trendfollower ft. Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court
3 april 2023 · 1 uur 13 min
Join us for an in-depth conversation with Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court, as we explore their unique approach to managing $2 billion in assets using a systematic trend following program focused on alternative markets. Discover how they navigate the current macro environment by prioritizing skew over the traditional Sharpe ratio, their process for uncovering new markets, and their strategies for managing risk and uncertainty during times of crisis. We dive deep into their trend following implementation and why it's essential not to become a "backtest junkie." Plus, learn why they steer clear of having money inside of China, despite trading Chinese markets and how the location of their office has impacted their work. Don't miss this enlightening discussion with another industry leader in the CTA space. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Florin Court.
Episode Timestamps:
02:46 - Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach
03:54 - The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture
07:13 - Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?
15:55 - Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk
18:31 - Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times
22:27 - Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alp…
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SI237: Trend Following During March Madness ft. Richard Brennan
2 april 2023 · 1 uur 15 min
Join us for an eye-opening conversation with Richard Brennan, as we explore the world of trend following and delve deep into the unusual moves in fixed income markets and its impact on trend following performance during a month of March Madness. Discover how the design of trend following strategies allow it to be “prepared” for unforeseen events without overcomplicating the investment approach, and find out why choosing the right strategy and manager is all about personal preference. Rich reveals the secrets behind "the lifting power" of trend following and shares insights on how to determine the right amount of trend following allocation. Plus, gain valuable knowledge on the protective properties of trend following, the best ways to evaluate strategies, and the risks of being a replicator versus being a manager. Don't miss out on this enlightening episode! Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:16 - What happened this week?
08:34 - Unusual moves
15:16 - Reviewing the March Madness
20:44 - Industry performance update
22:05 - Being prepared for unexpected events
27:17 - Keeping things simple
30:29 - Correlation in your portfolio
34:27 - Finding the right strategy and manager
38:11 - The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio
49:2…
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IL15: Preparing for a De-Globalized World ft. Rana Foroohar
29 maart 2023 · 1 uur
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book
11:42 - What will the new world bring?
17:01 - The problems with Big Food
21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn?
28:08 - A realistic solution?
31:14 - A passion for manufacturing
37:22 - The pendulu…
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TTU140: Why Trend Following is Smart Diversification ft. Bruno Gmür, Founder of Quantica
27 maart 2023 · 1 uur 21 min
Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Quantica Capital.
Episode Timestamps:
02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital
05:04 - Their investment philosophy
12:31 - What makes them unique?
17:09 - Reacting to trends
19:43 - Why not do it the easy way?
23:33 - Looking Sharpe
30:34 - When Correlations go to "1"
35:12 - Dealing with shocks
39:02 - The measurement methodologies
43:14 - The role of correlation
46:38 - Good research and potential pitf…
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SI236: New Opportunities in Volatility Trading ft. Cem Karsan
25 maart 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Join us for an insightful conversation with Cem Karsan as he sheds light on the current financial landscape, from the recent banking crashes to Central Bank Rate Hikes and Geo-Political developments. Discover the reasons behind the unprecedented moves in the volatility space and how they're impacting different strategies, including trend following. Cem shares his thoughts on the critical importance of positioning and why volatility strategies are currently facing tough times. We'll also delve into the potential consequences of a loss of confidence in central banks and their policies, including much higher bond yields. And don't miss our discussion on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election will impact economic policies in the months to come. Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the sharpest minds in finance. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:03 - Reflecting on the current bank crashes
06:03 - The difficult situation for Powell
09:38 - The geopolitical perspective
12:38 - Surprises in the OpEx
18:03 - Weekly update
20:24 - The volatility winter
27:05 - Vol strategies in the equity space
30:38 - How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment?
36:11 - Are vol strategies on a downfall?
44:15 - A loss of c…
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IL14: Is India Broken? - The Dangerous Equilibrium of Indian Society ft. Ashoka Mody
22 maart 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
This is an episode for those who want to hear an alternative view of the world's largest country. McKinsey has said we are living in the “Indian Century”. Morgan Stanley believes 20 percent of global growth in the next decade will come from India. Our guest today, Princeton economist Ashoka Mody, has a different view, which he details in his new book: “India Is Broken”. He argues that there are two Indias, a successful, highly skilled and educated elite and a billion-plus population that remains very poor. Mody believes that this dangerous equilibrium is maintained by a close link between the government, big business and, in some cases, organized crime. This association produces projects that attract capital and headlines but leaves an employment deficit of over 100 million jobs. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Ashoka on Twitter & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
04:14 - Introduction to Ashoka Mody
10:19 - The development path of East Asia
14:41 - The path that India did not take
19:32 - The path they did take
23:37 - Different versions of India
30:37 - What is Hindutva?
34:09 - The Guljurat model of development
39:34 - A corrupted government
46:17 - Finding the accurate data
51:45 - Press freedom in India
54:37 - India - the …
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TTU139: The Benefits of Alternative Markets ft. Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton
20 maart 2023 · 1 uur 14 min
Today, we are joined by Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton for a conversation on how they use quantitative investment strategies and statistical research to generate alpha. We discuss how the characterization of Crisis Alpha has the potential to be misleading and why the speed of your trading should be determined by your objective, their process of discovering new ideas through research and the pitfalls of relying too heavily on automation. We also discuss how they stay diversified through alternative market selection, why it is important to look beyond volatility when assessing risk and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Winton Group.
Episode Timestamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Winton
05:05 - Their investment philosophy
09:25 - Where does opportunities arise?
10:18 - What caused them to reduce emphasis on Trend a few years ago?
13:48 - Too concerned about Sharpe?
16:39 - The value of Crisis Alpha
20:09 - Changing the trend following narrative
22:41 - What about the non-trend?
25:22 - Need for speed?
27:49 - Their research process
31:19 - Accessing big events in markets
35:00 - The pros and cons of machine learning
38:16 - Trading and selecting parameters
42:23 - The risks of CTA replication
44:57 - More markets = better?
50:09 …
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SI235: Trend Following's Reaction to SVB Collapse ft. Mark Rzepczynski
19 maart 2023 · 1 uur 16 min
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky is back with us, following a tense week with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other bank emergencies. We discuss how we are in a period that Mark calls “the great bond reprising” and what this means for the economy, why the collapse of SVB was somehow "expected", if only regulators had been looking at the right data and how you build models that are well prepared for unexpected events. We also discuss why the core concept of CTA replication in itself may be problematic and why the collapse of SVB might indicate that some people possess too much power, how the wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, how change and uncertainty in the world affects investors and the economy and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:00 - What really happened this week?
19:19 - Industry performance update
25:21 - A tough week for trend
36:13 - Looking through the rear view mirror
46:25 - SVB and trend following
52:47 - The dynamics of the financial world
59:20 - A changing world
01:09:27 - Reflecting on the CTA series
01:13:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
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GM37: SPR - The Federal Reserve of Oil ft. Rory Johnston
15 maart 2023 · 1 uur 15 min
Today we are re-joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We cover the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) that has been actively deployed by the Biden administration over the past year, its implementation and potential impact on related economies. To what extent can the SPR influence spot and futures prices, and what are the knock on effects on refined products? What is the interaction between the SPR, commercial inventories and prices? Rory also discusses the analogy between SPR sales and Fed policy, as it influences the yield curve. We also discuss the relationship between oil volatility and the crack spread, and how volatility is generally damaging but can boost profits in proprietary oil trading books. Finally, Rory challenges the assertion that speculators are the "smart money" in energy, and how positioning can act as a counter trend indicator. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Rory on Twitter
Episode TimeStamps:
03:19 - SPR - What and why?
06:27 - Why crude and not refined products?
09:34 - How is the SPR used?
13:54 - Trading oil
19:54 - The goal of the SPR market
23:04 - How inventory drives oil price
28:29 - The effect of inventory restocking
29:43 - Theory vs. practic…
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TTU138: Need for Speed in Trendfollowing ft. Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager at PIMCO
13 maart 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Today, we are joined by Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager within the Quantitative Strategies group at PIMCO, for a conversation how they manage 60 billion dollars through different quant strategies, of which app. $5bn is in Trend Following. We discuss their process of constructing portfolios using a defensive approach and how they manage to simultaneously maintain a high Sharpe, keep a balance between long and short trades and how they use tail "hedging" in their design of the strategy. We also discuss why they believe having a broad universe of markets is key and why they see a big potential in exotic markets, why they believe it is better to trade faster as a trend follower when markets are liquid enough, their process of measuring the expected returns and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about PIMCO
Episode Timestamps:
02:28 - Introduction to PIMCO
05:11 - Their investment philosophy
11:11 - Too concerned about the Sharpe?
14:53 - A different Speed of trend following
18:13 - Building a defence against equity drawdowns
22:32 - Balancing the opposing forces
25:45 - A different approach to volatility correlation?
27:06 - Using machine learning
28:04 - The role of bonds
31:34 - The larger portfolio perspective
33:07 - Their research pr…
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SI234: Trend Followers are minnows, not whales ft. Rob Carver
11 maart 2023 · 1 uur 9 min
Today, I'm joined by Rob Carver for the weekly trend following conversation, where we reflect on the takeaways from the CTA series and the performance of the year so far. We discuss parameter and markets selection through research and testing and why Rob dislikes stops in moving average systems, what happens if a brokerage firm fails. We also discuss why you have to be cautious when using dynamic position sizing and Rob’s advice for using backtesting, how articles from big financial media often creates a false or skewed narrative in the way they present data and information, why adding a lot of instruments to your portfolio is not as good an idea as it might seem. And finally we discuss Rob's latest article in the Financial Times and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA series
04:57 - Performance update
09:59 - Q1, Gene: Question about underfitting and overfitting
16:47 - Q2, James: What types of stops are commonly used in moving average systems?
18:49 - Q3, Chris: How far back do you go in backtesting?
22:20 - Q4.1, Kyle: What happens if an FCM goes belly up?
26:37 - Q4.2, Kyle: Questions regarding "Following the Trend" by Andreas Clenow
39:22 - Applying a commission rate for your backtest
44:22 -…
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GM36: Galactic Macro, UFOs & Balloon Encounters ft. David Dorr
8 maart 2023 · 1 uur 23 min
What are some of the key takeaways when you marry global financial markets with potentially extraterrestrial influences? Global Macro investor David Dorr, has taken on that conversation. As government and national security services have begun to declassify information around UFOs, David is exploring the edge of what people are starting to talk about but financial markets haven’t yet embraced. Energy, defense, travel, technology, are points of influence in this conversation. Then there’s what Lockheed Martin may be sitting on that could be a real game changer. David has been following this line of research for quite awhile and feels that things are just now starting to break loose. David Dorr is the Managing Principal at Dorr Asset Management SEZC and has more than 25 years experience in trading, global macroeconomics, risk management and trading technology. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:36 - Introduction to David
05:43 - A touchy subject
12:48 - The Tic Tac incident
19:37 - The Navy ships incident
24:17 - What is Area 51?
27:03 - What happened in Mosul, Iraq?
28:29 - The New York Times article
30:41 - Who is Bob Lazar and why is he important?
34:40 - Connections in the UFO network
38:40 - Alfred O'Donnell …
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TTU137: A new approach to Entering Trends ft. David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners
6 maart 2023 · 1 uur 10 min
Today, we are joined by David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners, for a conversation on how they use trend following to achieve a multi-billion dollar portfolio. We discuss how to become a better trend follower by understanding the weaknesses of the strategy and their approach to produce positive alpha, the challenge of timing trend following and how they focus on the conceptual trend without giving up the skew and how the "dark" 10-year period has affected their approach to volatility. We also discuss how they manage risk in an uncertain environment and the state of liquidity, whether trend following has a limit in terms of capacity and much more. Lees meer
DG Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the FCA and only provides services to professional clients as defined under the FCA rules.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about DG Partners.
Episode Timestamps:
02:08 - Introduction to DG Partners
03:38 - Their road to trend following
12:13 - The weaknesses of trend following
16:00 - Too concerned about Sharpe?
19:10 - The dual mandate
22:51 - The trend following narrative
27:19 - Capturing the meat of trend following
30:24 - Need for speed?
38:13 - How many markets do they trade?
40:16 - Rethinking volatility?
43:01 - Their execution process
44:00 - Their …
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SI233: The Market Impact of CTAs & Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne
4 maart 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the broader perspective of the markets and the economy. We discuss how the unpredictablity of inflation and interest rates affect all parts of the economy and the transition from globalization to deglobalization, the size of the CTA and trend following industry and how articles on media like Bloomberg often creates a unrealistic narrative about CTAs through colorful headlines. We also discuss Why you should add trend following to your portfolio and How trend following is done, what we have learned from our recent conversations with the best CTA managers in the world and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:59 - Broad Macro observations
12:41 - How the economy responds to interest rates
17:03 - Moving in a new direction
20:54 - Reflecting on the month of February 2023
22:44 - Industry performance update
24:29 - Bloomberg article on CTAs impact on equity markets
31:41 - Colorful headlines
34:07 - Findings from Quantica paper on CTAs market footprint
43:45 - Why trend following & How to do it?
50:47 - Takeaways from the CTA series
01:02:51 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're rea…
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TTU136: Trend Following... C'est la vie ft. Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management
3 maart 2023 · 1 uur 10 min
Today, we are joined by Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management (CFM), for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their investment strategy. We discuss their research on how trend following has performed historically and how they use the data in their trading and the role trend following play in their portfolio construction. We also discuss the right way of doing research when it comes to quant based strategies and how they differentiate themselves from other trend followers, how they keep risk stable and forecast gaps in markets, how you should use trend following in a multi-asset portfolio and how they estimate capacity, the risk of investing in a replicator strategy and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Capital Fund Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:05 - Introduction to Capital Fund Management
05:32 - Their investment philosophy
12:27 - Periods of under-performance
19:13 - Trend following - a small piece?
24:58 - Do Trend Followers have a dual mandate?
31:32 - Their research process
36:22 - Enhancing a trend program
37:46 - Using machine learning
40:47 - Different types of trend followers
46:56 - Controlling the risk
51:20 - Dealing with drawdowns
54:44 - Achieving convexity
57…
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GM35: The Drivers of the Commodity Markets ft. Nicky Ferguson
1 maart 2023 · 56 min
Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Nicky on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science
09:42 - The major players in the energy markets
12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial
18:43 - Forecasting the flow
25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas?
27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets
30:22 - Risk considerations
32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action
34:28 - Measuring demand
36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research
39:46 - O…
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TTU135: Moving Beyond Pure Price Trends ft. Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management
27 februari 2023 · 1 uur 21 min
Today, we are joined by Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management, for a conversation on how they use systematic tools like trend following, to take advantage of inefficiencies in markets. We discuss the pros and cons of risk premia strategies and how they manage to improve the Sharpe ratio while making sure the "dual" mandate is fulfilled, how they have moved beyond pure price trends as part of the evolution of their trend programs. We also discuss the process of building a trend following strategy and why they prefer to build models rather than mimic a strategy through linear regression, their approach to adding alternative markets to their portfolio, why they are always concerned about capacity and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about AQR Capital Management.
Episode Timestamps:
02:50 - Introduction to AQR
04:12 - Their investment philosophy
08:47 - Risk premia strategies
11:55 - A historical perspective
13:55 - Too focused on Sharpe?
22:24 - Changing the narrative
30:41 - Being unconventional
35:13 - Getting comfortable with the data
39:22 - The future for economical trend following
42:55 - Their research process
47:05 - The managed futures space
48:39 - Pricing trend following
55:00 - The need for daily liquidity
57:…
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SI232: Trend Following the Trend Followers ft. Nick Baltas
26 februari 2023 · 1 uur 9 min
Today, Nick Baltas return to the show following a head scratching period for inflation and interest rates the past few weeks. We discuss the state of the environment for trend following and the best way to select a portfolio of markets to trade, the pros and cons of "trend following the trend followers". We also reflect on Katy Kaminski’s take on Crisis Alpha and discuss the evolution of trend following and how it changes the way strategies are designed, why being too concerned about the Sharpe may impact your performance in unexpected ways and why it is important to be aware of your own biases and much more. Lees meer
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - Market recap
04:21 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA Series
09:10 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?
13:17 - Industry performance update
15:53 - Q1, Adam: Regarding applying systems to markets
23:41 - Q2, Tim: Thought on trend following the trend followers?
30:39 - Q3, Tim: Nick's thoughts on tracking the AUM?
37:19 - Crisis alpha - lost in translation?
49:43 - How trend following has evolved
53:44 - Are we too concerned about the Sharpe?
58:55 - Changing the narrative
01:05:02 - Trend following disagreements
01:07:29 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Rese…
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TTU134: Crisis Alpha Revisited ft. Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group
24 februari 2023 · 1 uur 12 min
Today, we are joined by Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, for a conversation on how they approach managed futures and trend following in their programs. We discuss how they work together with their clients to find the right solution for them and why it is important to understand the true meaning of Crisis Alpha, why commodities play a crucial role in times of crises and the key components of managing major disrupting events like COVID19. We also discuss why you might want an equity aware strategy, how they use machine learning to be more precise and prepared for moves in markets, how macro uncertainty impacts managed futures and trend following and much more. Lees meer
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about AlphaSimplex Group.
Episode Timestamps:
02:01 - Introduction to AlphaSimplex Group
03:03 - Their Investment Philosophy
08:02 - Too concerned about Sharpe?
13:42 - How do you customize pure trend?
16:10 - Crisis Alpha - the true meaning explained
22:24 - The role of commodities in crises
26:22 - A need for speed?
32:20 - Capping the equity beta
39:36 - Their approach to CTA replication
44:59 - Machine learning as a research tool
48:30 - Simple vs. sophisticated
50:02 - CTA style factors
56:16 - All about bonds?
59:00 -…