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Dovish Fed Won’t Fly – Ep. 432

5 januari 2019 · 47 min
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Big Move Up Today

Another big move today in the U.S. stock market except this time the big move was to the upside, more than eradicating yesterday's big decline. In fact, looking back historically, yesterday's drop was the second biggest drop in history for the second day of the New Year. The biggest drop on the second day of a new year was in the year 2000. That was the year when the NASDAQ bubble originally popped. That big drop happened at a time where the market was peaking and we were just beginning a bear market where the U.S. stock market went down by about half and the NASDAQ went down by abut 80%. So not a good comparison.

NASDAQ Biggest Mover Up 4.25%

On the other hand, today's rise was the second biggest rise for the S&P on the third day of a new year in U.S. stock market history. The biggest rise happened in 1932, and that was during the great depression. Clearly not a good period for the U.S. stock market or the U.S. economy to have to go back to 1932 to see a third trading day in January where you have this big a gain. In fact, the Dow was up 3.3% on the day but the S&P up 3.4%. The biggest mover was the NASDAQ, which was up 4.25%. So much bigger than the drop that we had yesterday. The Russell 2000 was up 3.75%.

What was the Catalyst?

So what was the catalyst? Why did the U.S. stock market go up so much today after being down so much yesterday? First of all, the market started off on a positive note. I'm pretty sure we were up 2-300 points right out of the gate in the futures, even before we got the Nonfarm Payroll number that came out at 8:30 a.m. Futures were already trading, and there was already a big gain before that number was released. So it wasn't the jobs report that actually was responsible for today's move.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Dovish Statements

It had much more to do with the comments made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Those comments …
Bad News is Bad News – Ep. 431

4 januari 2019 · 56 min
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Big Moves in the Market Today

For those of you who have been waiting all year for the first Peter Schiff Show Podcast of the new year, 2019, here it is. We finally got a day with enough worthwhile news that it made sense for me to do a podcast. I'll probably end up doing another one tomorrow, when we get the Nonfarm payroll numbers - the jobs numbers. We'll see if that's a big market mover. But we had a lot of movement in the markets today; all sorts of news came out as well, weighing on the markets.

Apple Closed Down 9.7%

The Dow was down 660 points today - pretty much about the same drop that we had on Christmas Eve. Now I doubt that today will be followed by a repeat of Boxing Day, where we get a 1,000 - point rally, but we'll see. The excuse of the day was probably Apple. You can say that Apple took a bite out of the stock market today. Apple announced yesterday just after the close that its sales would be disappointing, and Apple stock was down just under 10%. It closed down 9.7%, pretty close to the lows of the day - not the exact lows, but it has got to be one of the biggest losses in history for Apple.

Everybody Got a Rotten Apple Today

Apple is very widely owned; the Swiss Central Bank is a big holder of Apple stock. A lot of hedge funds own Apple, Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) has a big position in Apple - pretty much in everybody's portfolio. So everybody got a rotten Apple today. In fact, Apple is now down almost 40% - 39% from its peak price. Remember, when it was at peak, it was over a trillion dollars in market cap. It was Apple and Amazon that were trillion dollar companies. Well, no more. Apple, again, has dropped not quite $400 billion in market cap from its peak.

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Santa Claus Rally Came Just the Same – Ep. 430

29 december 2018 · 49 min
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Published on: Dec 28, 2018

Or Did It?

It looks like the Grinch may not have been able to stop Christmas from coming to Wall Street. It looks like the Santa Claus Rally came just the same. - or did it?

The worst Christmas Eve in the history of the stock market was followed by the biggest Boxing Day rally in the history of the stock market. We don't celebrate Boxing Day here in the United States; all the other English-speaking nations celebrate that holiday, but maybe we'll celebrate it in the future, given the fact that the Dow Jones rallied over 1,000 points this Boxing Day. So that more than eradicated the 650 point drop which was the biggest Christmas Eve drop in history.

A Bounce Could Come at any Time

If you recall, on my last podcast, I mentioned that following Christmas Eve's drop, this December was the worst December in stock market history. We has finally beaten out the 1931 December. But I also mentioned that given the extreme oversold condition that existed in the market, it was possible that a bounce could come any minute or any day, and I was not sure whether or not we would finish as the worst December in the history of the stock market because we still had several trading days left for the market to bounce, and that is exactly what happened.

The Grinch May Have a Change of Heart

In fact, we managed to close positive on the week. I think the Dow finished up about 617 points. Now, of course, we still have one more day for the Grinch to have another change of heart. If on Monday, the Dow is down more than 617 points which is easy to do given the volatility that we're seeing, especially we're no longer oversold to the extent that we were on Tuesday - then the Grinch may have ended up stealing the Santa Claus Rally anyway.

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The Grinch Stole the Santa Claus Rally – Ep. 429

25 december 2018 · 48 min
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Worst Christmas Eve Day in Stock Market History

As I thought would be the case, it looks like the Grinch Stole the Santa Claus Rally. Normally, the U.S. stock market rallies during the final five trading days of the year between Christmas and New Year's Day. But today was not only the worst Christmas Eve day in stock market history, it blew apart the old record. In fact, there has never been a Christmas Eve day where the S&P or the Dow fell by as much as 1%. Today, the Dow Jones dropped better than 650 points - 2.9% on the day.

Officially Not a Correction

Although the Dow now is the only major index not officially in a bear market (now down 19.15% from its peak), but the S&P 500, which dropped 2.7% today is now down just over 20%. So it's now official, Wall Street can stop pretending that it's a correction, they have to admit that it's a bear market. Now, if they want to hang their had on the Dow, O.K. well they can hang it there maybe for one more trading day, because it's not going to take much for the Dow to join the party. Of course, other indexes are extending moves into bear market territory. The Dow Transports are down 25.7%; the NASDAQ just under 24% to the downside.

The Russell 2000 Losing Gains Rapidly

The Russell 2000 is down 27.3%. This index is down better than 5-1/2% since Donald Trump was inaugurated. This was the index that was supposed to benefit the most from Trump's economic policies. It's still up about 6% since he was elected President. So all that hype is still in there. But at the rate the index is falling, this index is going to lose those gains pretty rapidly. Then, of course, Trump is not going to be able to talk about all the wealth that has been created in the stock market since he's been elected, because all that paper wealth will have been destroyed.

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The Fed’s Deal with the Devil – Ep. 428

22 december 2018 · 49 min
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NASDAQ Now in Bear Territory

It was a big down day, in fact there was even more carnage in the NASDAQ. Today is the day that NASDAQ finally slipped into bear market territory. So, Wall Street's been calling this a correction the whole way, well now the NASDAQ is down 22%, joining the Russell 2000, down 26% and the Transports down 24%. Those 3 indexes are now officially in bear markets.

It's All a Matter of Time

But what does that mean? That means when the NASDAQ was only down 5%, it was in a bear market. That's exactly what I was saying. They don't acknowledge the bear market until it's down 20%, but that doesn't mean it's not in a bear market. It just means nobody wants to admit that it's a bear market. Now we still have 2 indexes that are not in bear markets, the S&P 500 is now down almost 18% and the Dow Jones is down just under 17%. So Wall Street maybe can cling to the notion that these indexes are not in bear markets because they're not down 20%. Look, it's all a matter of time. As I said on the last podcast, I thought that the NASDAQ would be in a bear market by the end of the week and that's exactly what happened, and I'm pretty sure that the S&P 500 and the Dow are going to join this party before the end of the year.

Huge Bear Market in FAANG Stocks

Today's decline started off as a rally. The Dow was up about 400 points this morning, before it collapsed. So we basically reversed yesterday's decline and then we got clobbered and took out new lows. The NASDAQ was down 3%. That was the weakest index, and it was led down by the FAANG stocks, which are now down collectively, on average, 35%. This is just generally in the last few months. So this is a huge bear market in the FAANG stocks. The worst of the FAANG's is Facebook, which was down big again today, like 5 of 6%. Facebook is now down 43%. Second place, is Netflix, down 42%, then Amazon down 33%, and lastly, Goo…
The Fed Put a Fork in the Stock Market – Ep. 427

20 december 2018 · 46 min
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Seventh Rate Hike since Trump's Election

As expected, earlier today, the Federal Reserve nudged up the Fed Funds rate by another quarter point. The Fed is now targeting their rate at 2.25 - 2.5%. So the range is somewhere in the middle, there. This marks the sixth time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates since Donald Trump has been President, and the seventh time that the Fed has hiked rates since Trump was elected. Remember, during the entirety of Obama's 8-year Presidency, the Fed raised interest rates only once.

A 900-point Selloff

What the markets did not expect was the dovish hike to be so hawkish. In fact, the minute I heard the language, I was surprised that the Dow didn't immediately sell off, more than it did. It had a bit of a bounce before it sold off, the Dow Jones ended up down just over 350 points. The selloff from the high to the low was just under 900 points. Earlier in the day the Dow had rallied up about 300 points because there was a lot of anticipation that even though the Fed was going to hike rates today, that it would indicate it would pause. That was on neutral - that it wasn't really planning any more rate hikes for 2019, and would just play it by ear. It was going to be data dependent.

Dow's Worst December since 1932

But what the Federal Reserve said in their official statement that accompanied the news was that they had reduced their expectation for rate hikes for next year from 3 to just 2 anticipated rate hikes. Now, that may be considered dovish, but it did not nearly meet the expectations of the market. It was expecting something much more than that. When I heard that, I thought, "The market's going to get killed." And it did go down but I think a lot more of the carnage is going to happen probably later in the week and next week. In fact, the market is now down so much that the Dow is having its worst December since 1932. Of course…
A December to Remember – Ep. 426

18 december 2018 · 44 min
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Two Podcasts in One Day!

For those of you who were worried that I wasn't going to be able to do a podcast today to talk about the stock market or the economy because I already did a podcast earlier this morning, well, you're wrong! Here I am, doing my second podcast of the day. This may be an unprecedented event. I don't know if I've ever recorded 2 podcasts in the same day.

Don't Miss This Morning's Podcast on the Unconstitutionality of Obamacare

The reason I did the earlier podcast was because I wanted to address the topic of the Federal court in Texas striking down the ACA individual mandate and rendering the entire Affordable Care Act unconstitutional. I would encourage you to listen to that podcast if you are interested in this topic or the Constitution to listen to it in its entirety.

Not a Crash, but Regular Volatility

But let's talk about another big down Monday. As I suggested when I did my podcast on Friday, I'm still thinking that there is a possibility of a Black Monday type event this year. I said we were running out of Mondays because we only had 3 left, and now one down. This, again was not a crash, but the Dow did close down better than 500 points. At one point, we were down over 600. You know, these big drops are not becoming a recurring event - they add up, right?

Worst December Start Since 1980

If you look at the charts, we look extremely vulnerable to a big drop. I read that already, we're off to the worse start for a December since 1980. That was really the end of the last bear market. We had a bear market that went from 1966 to 1982, so the last time we had a December this week was at the tail end of that long-term secular bear market.

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Why Obamacare Is Unconstitutional – Ep. 425

17 december 2018 · 48 min
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Decision May Well Stand up under Appeal

A Federal Judge in the state of Texas, U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor, has ruled that the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, is unconstitutional, and therefore the law would be null and void, that it would be struck down. Of course this will be the subject of appeal, so whether or not this decision is going to hold is still an open question. But if you listen to the way it is being reported in the media, the reaction from a lot of the people, particularly the Democrats, is that they are accusing this judge of being partisan, being a judicial activist, that this is a ridiculous crazy decision and that it will clearly be overturned. All this is a bunch of nonsense. The judge in this case is completely correct. Obamacare was unconstitutional before this decision.

The Rationale Behind Judge's Ruling

This particular judge focused on one aspect of the law, but there are so many reasons this law is unconstitutional. But for the purpose of this podcast is to focus on the rationale behind the judge's ruling and why I believe the decision is valid and may, in fact stand up under appeal. Under the new makeup of the Supreme Court, some of the new justices could easily side with the original dissent to form a new majority now that the law itself has been changed based on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is the basis of this particular decision.

Read Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution

I did an earlier podcast on whether or not the U.S. government could require American citizens to purchase health insurance. Now the theory was that they had the right to do this under what is now known as the Commerce Clause (Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution), one of the single most understood Constitutional clauses which has enabled the government to get away with all sorts of things that the Constitut…
Under Socialism Even Bad Sex Is Good – Ep. 424

15 december 2018 · 40 min
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Technicals Portend Bear Market in Small Caps and Transports

The Dow managed to finish off this Friday with a loss of less than 500 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down just 496.87 points. So I guess the headline can be: "We Avoided a 500 Point Decline!". At one point, the Dow was better than 550 points in the red. But, when you close that close to your low of the day, within 10 percentage points of the low, that is a very weak close. The Dow finished the day weak, the week weak, and it is a very weak month. In fact, the weakest indexes continue to be the Russell 2000 - I've been talking about the weakness in the small caps. That index is now down better than 19% from its peak just about 4 months ago. So we're almost officially in bear market territory. We'll probably be there by Monday, judging by the technicals.

Possible Black Monday?

The other index that is leading the way down is the Dow Jones Transports. This index is now down better than 18% from its peak. Both the Transports and the Russell 2000 are at the lowest levels of the year. They took out the lows from the earlier decline that happened at the beginning of the year, so the Dow and the NASDAQ have yet to take out those lows set earlier in the year, but I believe they will. In fact, they may even take them out before the end of the year. Monday, again, is looking extremely weak. I've been talking about this all quarter, where I think there is a potential for a Black Monday type of event. Obviously, we're running out of Mondays this year. Both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve fall on a Monday and there will probably be very light trading going on, so potentially the markets could see a lot of selling if there are not enough people there to buy.

Appearance on Countdown to the Closing Bell this Monday

I will be on Fox Business News, The Countdown to the Closing Bell this Monday, with Liz Claman. …
The Fed Hiked Itself into Insolvency – Ep. 423

13 december 2018 · 39 min
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Mainstream Forecasts Incorporating Recession

We are in the early stages of this bubble popping. That's why, if you look now at a lot of the mainstream forecasts, all of a sudden, they're all incorporating recession. The probability of recession is now very high over the next couple of years. I read J.P. Morgan now is saying that there is a 70% probability that the U.S. is in recession by the end of 2020. In fact, most of the forecasts I'm looking at now predict that the U.S. will either enter recession next year or in the following year. This is a huge change from where people were just a few months ago, where there were no recessions as far as the eye can see. Now we're staring them in the face.

Third Consecutive Drop in Small Business Confidence

One thing that really hasn't changed so much is that you have all this optimism that still abounds. It doesn't make sense to me that people could be so optimistic about an economy that they concede is so close to recession. Now, I think on Tuesday we did get a drop in small business confidence, it's the third consecutive monthly drop, and three months ago, small business confidence hit an all-time record high. But if you have more of these small business owners thinking that we are a year away from recession, in fact less than a year if you think recession is going to start in 2019 - we're going to be in 2019 in a few weeks. So, if you think recession is so close, how much longer can you remain so confident?

The Fed Doesn't Have Recession in its Forecast

Now, of course, the Fed doesn't have recession in its forecast; not even close. The National debt is careening toward $22 trillion and these guys are putting out their rosy estimates for economic growth. They're not starting to factor in these recession forecasts that are becoming more and more mainstream.

Fed Funds Rate in Negative Territory in Real Terms

The problem for the …
A Bubble That Will Live in Infamy – Ep. 422

8 december 2018 · 38 min
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Pearl Harbor Day 2018: A Very Interesting Technical Day

Today is December 7th, a day that will live in infamy. Unless you are a Millennial who was educated in the U.S. public school system. In which case you have absolutely no idea what happened on December 7th 1941. You've probably never heard of Pearl Harbor, you certainly don't know where Pearl Harbor is located. Maybe you've heard of World War II, but a lot of them haven't. Even those who have heard of World War II probably have no idea who fought, or even who won.

As Goes the NASDAQ, so Goes the Rest of the Market

Today, December 7th maybe won't live in infamy, but it seems to me it was a very interesting technical day in the U.S. stock market, which should give the bulls on the stock market something to think about. I think the action today, particularly in the NASDAQ, (I think as goes the NASDAQ, so goes the rest of the market) but that action was particularly significant.

An "Outside Day"

One of the more reliable technical patterns is an "Outside Day". An outside day is when you trade above and below the highs and lows of the previous day, and then close above or below one of those lows. It's an outside day even if you close somewhere in the middle. An "Inside Day" is when you trade within the range of the previous day; you don't take out the high or the low. But the most significant type of an outside day is an outside day where you close above or below the previous day's high or low. That would be called an "Outside Reversal Day". It' s a positive if you could take out the previous day's low, but then rally and then close above the previous day's high.

The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ Took out Yesterday's Lows

What the NASDAQ did today was the opposite of that. The NASDAQ rallied this morning on, I guess the weaker than expected jobs numbers and took out the highs from yesterday. In fact, all of the major marke…
The Fed’s Policy Mistake Started with Greenspan – Ep. 421

7 december 2018 · 48 min
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Dow Volatility Started with Huawei News

We had another very volatile day today on Wall Street, and it really got started last night with the news of the arrest in Canada of the CFO of the Chinese company, Huawei. Her father is the founder of the company and a very prominent, powerful and influential man in China and this set the mood. the Dow futures dropped initially, I think about 500 points as soon as the story broke. Obviously, anything that may throw a monkey wrench in the supposed deal that was made over dinner, mano a mano, down in South America between Trump and Xi. So this caused some problems.

Dow Down About 780 on the Lows

The market clawed its way back; I think we were down maybe 200 and change, but then we started selling off early in the morning and when the Dow Jones opened up, we were down maybe about 400-500 very quickly and we sold off almost down to 800 points. The Dow was down about 780 points on the lows. This is following yesterday's market holiday honoring the memory of the late President George Herbert Walker Bush. That day of mourning, however did not do anything to stop the carnage on Wall Street.

Market Clawed its Way Back on Fed "Wait and See" News

What it took was an article that came out later in the day in the Wall Street Journal. That article basically said that the Fed was considering a new "Wait and See" strategy after the December rate hike. And the odds of a December rate hike, which are coming up, the probability is about 75%, which is lower than it was, so there is still a chance that the Fed does not hike in December. But according to the Wall Street Journal doesn't take place immediately. This is after the December hike. So for 2019, the article suggests that maybe there'll be even fewer rate hikes than the markets believed.

Debt Service Costs Creating a Drag

Everything was weak until we got this news from the Fed that turned a lo…
A Nation Can’t Tax Itself Rich – Ep. 420

5 december 2018 · 43 min
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No Relief

As I said on yesterday's podcast, I did not we had a "Wall Street Relief Rally", based on the stand down or truce in the trade war following the backtracking by the Fed on the potential number of rate hikes and the distance we were from neutrality.

Interest Rates Anything But Neutral

By the way, yesterday I referred to the rate hikes as normal; I should have said neutral - obviously what we have now is not even close to being normal. The Fed is trying to convince us that the new "neutral" rate of interest is now lower than what was considered neutral in the past. Why is that? Because we have such an enormous amount of debt now, the Fed has to keep interest rates much lower in order to achieve neutrality. But, of course, if the Fed needs to keep interest rates low, it's not neutral. Those low interest rates are actually stimulative. What the Fed is trying to do is use artificially low interest rates to prop up the economy and then claim that those artificially low rates are neutral. They're anything but neutral. They are accommodative. This is cheap money, this easy money, and ultimately it is going to set off massive inflation.

A Terrible Day, Technically

Nobody seems to understand that yet, but that's what's coming. People are continuing to be complacent despite today's substantial drop in the value of stocks. Today the Dow was down just shy of 800 points - 799 points. At the lows, it was down over 800. We didn't close on the exact low; maybe they're going to somehow claim that that was a rally or something - the fact that we closed slightly off the lows. This was a terrible day, technically, and in fact I mentioned again on yesterday's podcast, the fact that the market made the highs on the open - it did not trade very well, and it looked to me that we would fall down. I did not know that we would drop this much this quickly, but it doesn't surprise me.

Our S…
Trump Backs down on Tariffs – Ep. 419

4 december 2018 · 54 min
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Interest Rates and Trade War

The two things that everybody seems to agree were weighing down the markets were the Fed's relentless drive to normalize interest rates, and figure out where "normal" was, and, of course, the trade war - the threat of additional tariffs overhanging the markets. So I think it was pretty clear to President Trump who is hanging his hat on the stock market, has decided that the stock market performance is the best barometer of his Presidency. So the fact that the stock market was falling was really a big problem for the President so he had to do what he could to try to get the stock market to go back up.

Fed Restated "Normal"

The first part of the two-pronged attack was the interest rates. Whether he was able to convince Powell to change his tune or whether Trump just got lucky and the Fed decided to backtrack, as I mentioned in my last podcast, the Fed has now said, "We are just below normal." Meaning that we only need one more rate hike before we get to normal, whereas in the past the Fed had said that normal was quite a ways away, and that the Fed would have to raise rates many, many more times in order to achieve normal. And of course, anybody who knows anything about the history of interest rates would have to agree that where we are now, at 2% is historically abnormal. It obviously could not be considered neutral based on any kind of past precedent. So the fact that the market was able to backtrack so quickly really threw a bone that the market and Donald Trump badly needed..

Trade Tensions Weighing Down the Market

But the other factor that was weighing down the market was all the trade tensions, and all the talk about the tariffs that were going to be imposed in less than a month. The first of next year we were going to get these 25% across-the-board tariffs.

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The Fed Flinches, Powell Put in Play – Ep. 418

30 november 2018 · 35 min
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The Fed's Game of Chicken

The big news was yesterday, when Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, basically flinched. I've been talking about the game of chicken that the Federal Reserve has been playing with the markets. The way the game of chicken goes, is the markets keep moving lower and the Fed keeps talking about how great the economy is and how many rate hikes are coming in the future. Somebody has to flinch - somebody has to blink. It's like you have these two automobiles driving toward each other, and there's going to be a major crash unless somebody turns the wheel.It seems like it was Jerome Powell who turned the wheel first, and, in fact, was chicken.

The Fed Is Worried About All Asset Prices, Not Just the Stock Market

As much as the Fed wants to pretend they don't care about the stock market - they absolutely care about the stock market. They are tremendously worried about a weakening stock market. Remember the goal of quantitative easing was to lift the stock market - to create a wealth effect and it was that stock market-created wealth that was going to drive consumption and the economy. And it wasn't just the stock market; it was also the real estate market. So the Fed is worried about all asset prices, not just the stock market. Clearly the real estate market is in even more trouble than the stock market, but both of these markets were headed lower, and I think that is what really prompted the Fed to blink - to swerve in this game of chicken.

Powell Suddenly Dials Back the Narrative

Now, of course you also had President Trump pressuring the Fed, you had Mnuchin putting some pressure on the Fed, which I think should also be a worrying factor. We don't really know. There was a lot of speculation about what was behind the Fed's change of heart - change in policy. After all, up until yesterday, even when you had the Vice Chair speak, the tone was very hawkish: "Yep, we…
Two Wrongs Never Make a Right – Ep. 417

28 november 2018 · 47 min
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25% Tariffs Will Inflict Rather Substantial Damage to the U.S. Economy

The Dow Jones managed to finish the day up just over 100 points - I think that was about the high of the day, and we erased a loss that at one point was better than 200 points. I think a potential catalyst was a talk given by Larry Kudlow earlier in the day in which Kudlow raised some optimism over the possibility of a deal with China that would, of course avert the 25% across the board tariffs that are going to go into effect at the beginning of the new year. Of course, there is always the possibility of a resolution, and I still thin that there is going to be some type of face-saving resolution on both sides to avert these 25% tariffs. I do think that they will inflict rather substantial damage to the U.S. economy, which is already rapidly decelerating, despite everybody's refusal to admit that (including the Federal Reserve, and I'll get to some comments later in the podcast).

Trump Is Pulling the Strings

But I don't think the President can risk the 25% tariffs as much as he wants to posture that the U.S. economy is in great shape, and we are in a better position than China to weather any kind of short-term damage that might be created by the tariffs. I don't think the President is eager to test that hypothesis. I think he would rather take credit for averting the crisis, even if the crisis was a matter of his own doing. He throws out the potential for the crisis, but of course, the only reason why the crisis is dangling in front of us is because Trump is pulling the strings.

It's Impossible to Consume What Has Not Been Produced

To the extent that the Chinese can produce all these products, they don't need America to consume them; they can consume the products themselves. Once the products are produced, consumption is a foregone conclusion. It's easy to consume what's been produced; it's impossible …
As Bubbles Burst the Malinvestments Are Exposed – Ep. 416

22 november 2018 · 52 min
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Dow Could Not Hold Onto the Gain

After yesterday's, I think 550 point drop in the Dow, the market bounced back a bit today. I think at one point earlier in the day the Dow managed to gain over 200 points, but it could not hold on to that gain. It closed down just under one point. Very weak technical action for today's pre-Thanksgiving bounce. Normally, the markets are up on the day before Thanksgiving, and in general, they were. The other indexes all managed to close in the black, although considerably off their intra-day highs.

Decline in Retail Touted as Excuse, But It's Just a Bear Market

The XRT, which is an index of retailers (I talked about that on this podcast before) snapped an 8-day losing streak. More bad news came out from retailers yesterday; that was part of the reason that you saw the big sell-off in the Dow. That was the excuse; I don't think the market needs a reason to go down. It's a bear market, and that's what bear markets do - they go down. Of course people who don't know that they're in a bear market make excuses to try to rationalize why the market is going down because they don't want to admit that they are, in fact, in a bear market.

Dead Cat Bounces All Around

Everything bounced today, I guess dead cat bounces all around. Even Bitcoin managed a rally. In fact yesterday, Bitcoin got as low as $4,050. So it held $4,000. Of course, you have people saying, "Ah Ha! $4,000 is the bottom!" I doubt it. It makes sense that there'd be some support at a round number. I doubt that this is THE low. It may not last more than a day or two, given the momentum in this decline.

Malinvestments are a Classic Part of Every Bubble

Remember I have talked about all the malinvestments that are taking place. When a lot of people argued with me about why Bitcoin was going to succeed, they pointed out that all this capital was going into the industry; all this infrastruct…
The Confidence Bubble Has Popped – Ep. 415

20 november 2018 · 51 min
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FAANG's Took a Big Bite Out of the Market

Another Monday, another big down day for the U.S. stock market, it is turning out to be one hell of a quarter; not all of the declines happening in October. But as I said earlier, it doesn't have to be in October for the market to crash. Today wasn't a Black Monday; certainly the percentage decline wasn't out of the ordinary. Although the FAANG stocks, in particular, there was a big bite taken out of those stocks, and it wasn't just the bite that was taken out of the Apple, which was some of the news that precipitated today's decline. A big down day nonetheless.

NASDAQ Having one of the Worst Quarters Ever

The Dow Jones down just shy of 400 points - 395, or 1.5%. On the lows, we were down better than 500 points. The Russell 2000 closed down just over 30 points - that's a 2% point drop. But the big drop was the NASDAQ - down 219 points, just over 3%, pretty close to the lows of the day. The NASDAQ is now down 12.5% so far this quarter - probably one of the worst quarters ever.

I think the only thing that may slow down the decline is if the Fed skips the December rate hike. Although, even that may not be enough. If the Fed doesn't hike in December, the markets might get worried that the Fed knows something and that the economy is much weaker and therefore earnings will be much weaker, so, to me, i think if the market's going to get a stay of execution from the Fed, it's actually going to have to be a rate cut.

Homebuilder Sentiment Lower Than Expected

There are plenty of other data points that are coming out, both corporate news and news about the overall economy, In particular, today, that I think weighed heavily on the markets. The first one being the Homebuilder Sentiment for November. That came out at 10am. So the markets were already trading based on another piece of news which I will get to. Last month, Homebuilder Sentiment'…
Even Jim Cramer Knows More Than the Fed – Ep. 414

17 november 2018 · 45 min
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Optimism Over No Tariffs Fueling Market Move

Donald Trump, I think, was the reason the markets ended up finishing in the black today, at least most of the major indexes. In fact, the only index that was down on the day was the NASDAQ - the NASDAQ was the only major index that was down on the week, thanks to weakness in tech stock, in particular, the FANG stocks. The comments that Trump made today basically gave hope to some people that potentially 25% across the board tariffs on all Chinese imports may not go into effect at the beginning of next year, which is the threat. If the Chinese ant Trump don't come to an agreement, then those tariffs are going to hit.

Tariffs Are the Stick

Apparently the tariffs are the stick that is going to be brandished by Trump, and he is going to use it to hit the Chinese over the head. But the threat of this big stick is supposedly going to bring the Chinese to the table, and there will be a deal that is favorable to the United States. Of course, if these tariffs actually go into effect, the people who are really going to be hit with the stick are going to be Americans. It's going to be American consumers who have to pay 25% more for everything they buy, and it's going to be American retailers who, of course, are going to sell a lot less stuff, because, if they have to raise prices by 25%, sales are going to collapse.

Fed Hinting that "Data Dependent" May Signal Slowdown in Rates

We had a couple of Fed guys out today -Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida - was interviewed today on CNBC by Steve Liesman - I happened to catch that interview, and was listening closely to what Clarida had to say. To me, he almost admitted that when the Fed pretended to be "data dependent" early on, they really weren't data dependent at all. They were just raising interest rates because they wanted to get them higher. They were afraid of getting caught with rates t…
Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop – Ep. 413

15 november 2018 · 32 min
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Very Negative Technical Action

We had another roller coaster ride in the stock market today, with the Dow Jones ending down about 200 points, but that was well off the lows of the day. I think we were down about 350 points, or close to it, at the lows. But, more interesting, we were up over 200 points earlier this morning. So this is very negative technical action, when you have these rallies and then close negative. In fact, we were down another 100 points yesterday on the Dow, and today, we came to within, I think 10 points of taking out yesterday's high - and then we not only crashed below yesterday's low, but we closed below yesterday's low. So another very weak day.

A Change in Name Only

I think one of the catalysts for the late afternoon rally, before the selloff, was all of the headlines coming out of Europe - the UK, regarding a Brexit deal, and I think that caused some people to buy stocks. The dollar actually sold off. It was down already; it sold off some more on that news coming out of Europe. But I don't know if this deal is going to fly . we'll see. I read through some parts of the deal, and to me, it looks like Theresa May is trying to borrow a page from President Donald Trump. Basically, what she is doing, is she is trying to rename the union that the UK has with Europe . If you read what they are going to sign on to, it is going to be some kind of trade pact that really kind of subjects the UK to all the rules and regulations that prompted them to want to get out of the European Union in the first place. So they're going to Brexit, but they're not actually going anywhere. Kind of like renaming NAFTA the USMCA . Basically, you're re-branding what you had before and claiming a victory. Maybe, politically speaking, May wants to try to honor the will of the voters by saying we accomplished Brexit, but basically not change anything. It's just a change in name on…
Share Buyback Chickens Coming Home to Roost – Ep. 412

13 november 2018 · 39 min
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Surrendered Rest of Post-Election Gains in One Day

As I thought, it didn't take long for the markets to surrender all of the post-election gains. The Dow Jones today was down 602 points, so we've already lost it. It took one day. On my podcast on Friday I said that we would surrender the remainder of the gains this week and we did it in the first day of the week. The NASDAQ actually had an even bigger decline; down over 200 points - 206.03 to be exact -down 2.78%. The Russell 2000 was also down 1.98% - just over 30 points - just shy of 2%. The S&P 500 was almost down 2% - 1.97% - 54.79 points .

NASDAQ: Usual Suspects

The usual suspects, of course, having some of the big declines. Apple computer came out with worse than expected earnings last week- down another 5.45% today - down 194. It is now below 250 - This is a new low for Apple. A lot of the other computer stocks got beat up today: NVIDIA down 7.7%, Broadcom down 6.5&, so the entire tech sector really got beaten up. Of course, Swiss National Bank was a big loser; they are one of the largest investors in U.S. Technology stocks. I did read an article, though, that said that they trimmed their portfolios rather significantly before the October decline, so the Swiss National Bank did not quite take it on the chin as badly as might otherwise have been the case. But, potentially, the news that the Swiss Central Bank was paring back its portfolio could be part of the negative news that is currently weighing down the market.

$15 Billion of G.E. Shareholder Wealth up in Smoke

Looking at stocks like G.E. - have been talking about G.E. on this podcast for quite some time. It is down again another 7% today, closing below $8 - $7.99 - the low price on the day was $7.72. This is a perfect example of what happens when the buyback chickens come home to roost. General Electric was buying back a lot of stock when money was cheap. The …
Rising Prices Reflect Inflation Not Growth – Ep. 411

10 november 2018 · 39 min
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Dead Cat Bounce Flattens Out

The Dow Jones was down a little over 200 today, closing back below 26,000. NASDAQ composite down 124 - that's a bigger percentage decline, 1.7%, approximately. The Composite is being led lower by the tech stocks, particularly the FANG stocks once again taking a bite out of the market. The markets, though, were positive on the week, thanks to that huge relief rally that took place on Wednesday following the results of the midterm elections on Tuesday. But as I said on my Wednesday podcast, I thought that relief rally was just another dead cat bounce, that the fundamentals and the technicals still looked horrible for the U.S. stock market. I expected that rally to reverse, and of course that process had already begun Thursday and Friday. I think it will continue next week and I think the rest of those gains will be surrendered.

Higher than Expected PPI Sparked Sell-Off

The catalyst for today's selloff was a much hotter than expected Producer Price Index number. The PPI was up .6% in 1 month, which is a big gain. In fact this is the biggest jump in the PPI in 6 years. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are up 2.8%. The market was looking for an increase half that size: .3%, Even year-over-year, when you strip out food and energy we were still up 2.6%, which is considerably above the 2% level that the Fed is looking at. Of course, the Fed is looking at consumer prices, not producer prices, but of course, nobody can consume what is not produced. These are really wholesale prices and of course they are going to get passed on to the consumer, so consumer prices are headed higher.

The Markets Don't Get It

But, again, the markets don't get it. Gold dropped the minute this number came out, gold dumped about $10. It was already down on the day, and then it sold off and never recovered. On the other hand, bonds were relatively stable when the numb…
Divided Government Will Produce Larger Deficits – Ep. 410

8 november 2018 · 36 min
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Relief Rally Post-Midterms

The elections are over and the Blue Wave was averted and the Dow Jones rose 545 points today to celebrate that fact and the NASDAQ was up 194 points, 2.64%; Russell 2000 up 26 points, about 1.67% . Now you may be wondering why there was such a big rise in the stock market based on an outcome that was pretty much expected. The Republicans lost the House of Representatives, and that was something that was widely anticipated by the markets. But the loss wasn't that big; they lost 26 seats. I think 23 was the number that the Democrats had to pick up. But I think there was some concern that the Republicans may have lost the Senate - instead they actually picked up, I think 3 seats as of now, in the Senate - increasing their margin. This is only the third time in 100 years where that's happened, where you've had the incumbent party lose House seats but gain Senate seats.

Obama's Midterm House Loss: 63 Seats

But it is amazing that the press was trying to hold this out as some kind of repudiation of his policies: "You lost the House of Representatives". Big deal! Obama lost the house of Representatives during his first midterms in 2010. That was one of the biggest disasters for an incumbent since Roosevelt. Obama lost 63 house seats. Not 26 - remember the Tea Party? That was all 2010. Trump did so much better than Obama. In fact, the average loss for a midterm in the House is 37 seats. Trump's loss of 26 was much better than average, but you wouldn't know that from listening to the Media. But most impressive was the 3 seats gained in the Senate. Barack Obama lost 6 seats during his first midterm elections. That's a 9-seat difference between what Trump was able to accomplish and Obama's accomplishment.

Economy-Stimulating Tax Cuts Less Likely

I think the reason that the dollar was weaker is the narrative is that since the Republicans no longer have contr…
Vote Against Socialism and Identity Politics – Ep. 409

5 november 2018 · 40 min
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An Advanced Auction on the Sale of Stolen Goods

Tomorrow is Election Day, or as H.L. Mencken once described the process, "An advanced auction on the sale of stolen goods". My wife has been bugging me for some time to urge people who listen to my podcast to go out and vote on Election Day. I think she's prepared to blame me if there are any close races, either for the House, Senate or even for Governor that end up going to the Democrats - if I do not urge my listeners to vote against that wave, somehow it will be my fault. So I urge all of the people who listen to my podcasts to actually go out and vote this Tuesday on Election Day.

Lesser of Two Evils

In most cases, our votes are not even going to matter. In fact in most cases it is a matter of voting between the lesser of two evils. Even though the lesser of two evils is still evil, it is "lesser", and when it comes to evil, I guess lesser is better. In some cases there are actually some good candidates who are running. Sometimes, however, when good candidates actually get elected and get into the cesspool that is Washington, D.C., a lot of the values that led them into politics go out the window if they want to stay there. You can have good intentions when you get to Washington, you can be principled, and you can say, "I'm going there to make the country a better place" but ultimately once you get there, everything changes.

Politics Ahead of Principle

In fact, when it comes to elections, and politics, the worst candidate usually wins. If you are a candidate or an elected official, and you are making decisions that are economically sound, and that are in the best interest of the nation or your constituency, and if your opponent is making decisions based on politics, which are likely to result in a larger number of votes, Which decisions are likely to land me money from special interests? If you're campaigning on principl…
Jobs Are Another Bubble About to Pop – Ep. 408

3 november 2018 · 34 min
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Futures Rallied after Drop on Apple News

I want to get to the nonfarm payroll number. This is the big number, and, maybe, because the initial number was good, the market rallied. Although, I think the real reason that the market rallied in the morning is because we had a big rally in Asia last night. There were some rumors that there would be some type of trade deal between China and the United States, and when that rumor came out, everybody bid up these Asian stocks. So the U.S. stock market, U.S. futures got bid up. So initially U.S. futures were way down on the Apple news, but then, when this rumors came out about a trade deal, then the markets rallied.

Hopes for Trade Deal with China

Part of the reason that people wanted to believe that there might be a trade deal is because everybody knows the election is coming up on Tuesday, and maybe the President is looking to do something between now and then in order to: a) make the market rally, but b) be able to claim victory. Like" aha! another deal like the USMCA - I got rid of NAFTA, and we have this new deal which is basically the same deal we had before, just with a different name, but he's able to pretend that he kept some kind of promise and now we've got a great deal, Whereas the old NAFTA was the worse deal in the history of deals, the one that he's got, which is virtually identical, is the best deal in the history of deals.

No Deal

I thought maybe he would do something similar to that with China. Come up with some ridiculous agreement that basically does nothing, then talk about how great it is… but apparently, not. Maybe they can still do that on Monday if they really want to wait to the last minute and come up with some kind of bogus deal… But people believe the rumors, but then this morning Larry Kudlow was on CNBC early in the morning before the open basically shooting that rumor do…
Bulls Ain’t Afraid of No Bear Market – Ep. 407

1 november 2018 · 41 min
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The Bulls Had No Fear

Today may be Halloween, but the Bulls had no fear. The U.S. stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day - the first time for the month of October. A lot of traders are probably happy that the month of October is over. Despite the back to back rally, this is still the biggest decline in a month for NASDAQ since 2008.

The Market Gave Back Gains Before Close

In fact, the rally off of yesterday's lows, I think was better than 1100 points. We had this huge gain, and even though today, the Dow was up better than 200 points (241 points), it was up about 450 points going into the last hours. So we did give back a couple of hundred points of that gain, which, to me, looked pretty weak. The NASDAQ had a 2% higher close; it was up 144 points. But you look at the Russell 2000 - much smaller gain there. That index up just a third of 1%. The Dow transports, they were barely positive. Not even 2 tenths of 1 percent - a 15 point rise in the Dow Transports.

Bear Market Correction

Nonetheless, all the Bulls were out in force on the financial networks claiming that the correction is over. Everybody was confident that the lows are in; that this big back to back rally is proof that you'd better buy now, otherwise you're going to miss the rally, and this is a typical correction, and now it has run its course. You know what? If this really was the "end of the correction", most likely, there wouldn't be so many people so confident that it was over. You'd have a lot more fear, especially on a Halloween. The fact that there is no fear, to me, shows that it is more likely that this is not the end of the correction but the beginning of the bear market. And that this rally is the correction. In bull markets, the market going down is a correction, because the trend is still positive. In a bear market, it's the opposite: the ralli…
FANG’s Take a Bite Out of the Market – Ep. 406

30 oktober 2018 · 44 min
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Dow Swings More Than 900 Points

Well we didn't have a Black Monday today, but we did have a pretty big selloff, especially if you measure the decline from the early morning pop to the late afternoon drop. I think it was better than a 900 point selloff. Earlier this morning the Dow Jones was up about 350 points, and I think halfway through the final hour, we were down as much as 560 points. Now, we managed to recoup a good chunk of those late day losses in the final half hour, with the Dow down just 245 points. Just over 1%. The NASDAQ trimmed its loss to 116 points - 1.63%. Of course, all the analysts are focusing on the fact that we didn't close on the lows! "Hey, it's strong; look, we had a huge rally, impressive rally off the lows!"

A Downside Reversal

There was nothing impressive about that rally. This actually was a downside reversal. Remember we were all talking last week about the upside reversal that wasn't? When the market was way down, and then it only closed a little bit down? That's not a reversal. Today was a reversal. We were way up, and we closed way down. That is a real downside reversal, and that's far more significant than the meaningless, fictitious reversal that we had last week.

Warning Signs Ignored

Look at some of these individual stocks: Boeing, last week, which was one of the only Dow stocks that actually had a good day - remember it had better than expected earnings, and Boeing went up? It was down almost over 7% today - Boeing getting killed. IBM, though, a much bigger deal: down 4%. A new 52-week low - multi-year low. This should have been a warning sign right out of the gate. It's kind of amazing that people ignored the news that came out over the weekend on IBM and they bought the market anyway.

Red Hat Hail Mary

IBM announced that it was buying a company called, Red Hat, and it's an all cash deal. They are way over-paying for this company. Now IBM is the poster child for stock buybacks. A…
Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

27 oktober 2018 · 38 min
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Look Carefully at the Price Index

The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.

Calling B.S. on that Number

Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.

Largest Trade Deficit in History

I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.

Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years

The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out…
A Record Trade Deficit Is Not Winning – Ep. 404

26 oktober 2018 · 51 min
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Merchandise Trade Deficit Largest Trade Deficit on Record

Today's rally had to overlook the bad news that came out today. I was watching CNBC this morning just before the news was announced and the anchor said, "We've got a lot of news coming out at 8:30 and I am going to go over the news items in order of importance. The first news item was the Durable Goods numbers (+0.8%), and then they went over the weekly jobless claims (202,000) and wholesale inventories (+1%). That was it. That was all they reported. They left out the most important number that came out at 8:30, which was the Merchandise Trade Deficit ($26 billion - largest trade deficit on record). But as far as CNBC is concerned, the trade deficit is immaterial. It doesn't even matter what the trade deficit is. In a way, they are right. because the markets couldn't give a damn.

People Don't Recognize that the Trade Deficit is a Bad Thing

At one point in time, the trade deficit was the most important number that came out every month. It was more important than the Non-Farm Payroll number. That's when people were smart enough to recognize that a trade deficit is actually a bad thing. But Donald Trump has made the trade deficit a big part of his Presidency. It was a big part of his campaign. You would think that maybe CNBC would consider the trade deficit important enough to even mention. If they were presenting the numbers in order of importance, at least mention it 4th, but they don't even mention it at all. That's how unimportant the trade deficit is.

Durable Goods Up Only Because of Defense Spending

But the Durable Goods number that came out (+0.8%) was reported as a good number because it was a beat. They were looking for -.5%. But the main reason that the headline beat was because of military orders - defense spending: aircraft. But if you take all that stuff out and you just looked at core capital goods, they…
Will Fed Capitulation Forestall Stock Market Crash? – Ep. 403

25 oktober 2018 · 34 min
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Bearish Signal

So much for yesterday's dead cat bounce. All of the U.S. stock market averages came plunging down today, in fact they all closed below yesterday's lows. So even though we had those big rallies off the lows, today, we lost the entire gain and closed lower than yesterday's low point. That is is the most bearish signal you can get.

Yesterday's Short Covering

Remember on yesterday's podcast, I was not impressed with yesterday's rally. I thought it was a typical "reversal Tuesday" rally that should be ignored. To me, it looked like a lot of short covering, particularly if you look at the type of stocks that were being bought. They seemed to me that they were the stocks that had a lot of shorts, so the shorts saw a big gap down and decided to take an opportunity to cover. But, when you have a lot of shorts who cover, that's actually bearish, because during the next decline, they are no longer there to buy. That's why this next decline could be particularly vicious. I don't think the decline is finished; as I said, I think it is just getting started, unless the Federal Reserve is going to come in and change the nature of the game,

Biggest Single NASDAQ Decline since 2008 Financial Crisis

The Dow was down over 600 points today - 608 points. That is a percentage decline of 2.41%. Of course there were a lot of stocks that did a lot worse. Earnings today from AT&T - that stock was down just over 8%. I think there were also some worries concerning the slow growth of subscribers at DirecTV, a recent AT&T acquisition. Also, UPS, came out with disappointing earnings today. The stock was down 5.5% today. Boeing might be the only stock that was positive today, up 1.3% - a beat.

The fact that this was the biggest single day decline in Nasdaq since the 2008 financial crisis means that today's drop is larger than any point drop that we had during the 2008 financial crisis. Yo…
Guns & Butter to the Moon – Ep. 402

24 oktober 2018 · 58 min
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A Big Constituency of Highly Indebted People

The fact that you have created this big constituency of highly indebted young people - they're like indentured servants. The government now loans them the money and now they are in debt to the government for the rest of their lives. But now the government can say, "Vote for me and we'll let you off the hook!"

You Don't Have to Repay Your Loan as Long as You Keep Re-Electing Me

Or they might have some other program where they do not completely wipe out the debt; maybe if you work for government for a certain number of years - maybe they will try to craft the program in such a way to make sure that these young people constantly vote for whichever politician promises to keep the wolves at bay: "You don't have to repay your loan as long as you keep re-electing me." It is another group of bought voters. Just like Social Security. Why does Trump want to pander to Social Security? Why does he want to say, "We're never going to cut Social Security."? He wants all the people who are on Social Security to vote for him, or to vote Republican.

At Least the Democrats Say the Rich Are Going to Pay for It

No one wants to take anything from anybody. Nobody wants to give anybody the bad news. Trump wants to be all things to all people. Everybody gets everything; no one has to sacrifice. No one has to pay. Everybody eats free lunch - no one has to cook it. At least the Democrats say the rich are going to pay for it. Trump says nobody's going to pay for it. It's all going to magically appear because of this booming economy which isn't even booming. At least the Democrats' lie seems a little more believable. They are not saying the money's coming from nothing, it's coming from these rich people who are lucky enough to have all this money and we can just take this money from them - they're not going to miss it because they don't need it anyway, and…
How Many Canaries Have to Die? – Ep. 401

20 oktober 2018 · 44 min
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Overwhelming Evidence of a Weakening Economy

The Dow Jones was the only one of the major indexes to close the day higher. The S&P was down slightly, we had larger declines in the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. More importantly than the movements that we've just seen on the day, or even the week, look at what's happened thus far during the month of October, which I had been warning on my podcast. It looked like there could be a weak October, given where we were in the market, given how ridiculous the sentiment was in the face of overwhelming evidence that the economy was weakening

Russell 2000 Down 9.2%

If you look at the numbers, the Dow Jones is down 3.8% so far on the month. That's the best performing of the averages. The S&P, down about 4.7% on the month, Nasdaq Composite down 7.4%; the transport down 8.3% and the Russell 2000 - 9.2% decline. Remember, the Russell 2000 is where everybody wanted to buy. Earlier last month the talk was that you needed to be in the Russell 2000 because the rest of the world was in trouble, you needed a safe haven from all the turmoil around the world, that the U.S was going to win the trade war, and of course, the companies that had the least vulnerabilities to the trade war were the domestic companies that weren't multinational and those are the companies that you would find in the Russell 2000. Small-company U.S. stocks - so people were piling in. Those are the stocks that have done the worst. Down 9.2% on the month.

Gold, Gold Stocks Up; Bond Yields Continue to Rise

While stocks were going down, gold was going up. Gold is up about 3% so far during the month of October. Gold stocks doing even better - GDX and GDXJ each up about 8% so far on the month.

Bond yields continue to rise; they were higher today; higher on the week; higher on the month and as bond yields are rising, the dollar is also rising, but ever so slightly. We're not seeing that much of a gain in the dollar. But ultimatel…
Fake Accounting Trumps Fake News – Ep. 400

17 oktober 2018 · 55 min
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Thanks to Listeners for 400 Episodes of The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

For those of you who say that Peter Schiff does Podcasts when the Dow is down, Dow Jones was up 547 points today. This is my 400th episode of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. I want to take a moment to thank my audience - everybody who has been listening to the podcast. Especially to the people who have listened to all 400 episodes. By the way, if you missed a few, they're all archived.

Check out all the Archived Episodes of the Shows

Some people have been listening for a lot longer. I was doing a daily talk show for 3 years or so. I started it after my failed Senate campaign to continue to get my ideas out there. But I eventually did not have enough hours in the day to commit to be at a mic for 2 hours each day doing a live show, even though I enjoyed it - we had a lot of guests and I took a lot of calls. Before I ran for Senate, I did a once a week call-in show, Wall Street Unspun. Some people who are listening to the podcast go all the way back to the Wall Street Unspun days. A Special thanks to the people who have listened all of these years.

Please Take the Time to Rate and Review my Podcast

Remember, if you have been listening to my podcasts, certainly if you've listened to all of them, do me a favor and rate the podcast on iTunes or whatever platform you use to access my podcast. Rate the podcast, make comments about the podcast, put 5 stars down there.

Market Up, But We May Still be in Bear Territory

There is so much overwhelming evidence that the bull market is over, and that's what I want to focus on. The housing stocks had a rally today but the auto stocks are still very weak. The economic data that I've been seeing has been weak but nonetheless, as I said earlier, the Dow was up 547 points, that was 2.17%. But the NASDAQ Composite was up 214 points - 2.89% on the day. The Russell 2000, which had been getting beaten up was up 43 points today…
Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down – Ep. 399

12 oktober 2018 · 29 min
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A Very Volatile and Technically Weak Trading Day for the Dow

Here I am for the third day in a row doing a podcast. It's market volatility that has brought me to the mic yet again. The Dow Jones down 525 points; a very volatile and technically weak trading day for the Dow. The market opened down, we quickly sold off, a couple of hundred, but then we rallied back! We got positive. I think we were up a hundred, maybe more, and then going into the last hour or near the last hour we sold off hard. the Dow was down I think close to 700, I'm not sure exactly, but then, we got a rally. Not all the way back to unchanged, but then in the final 15 minutes of so the Dow rolled over once again to close just off the lows. Down 525 points. Over 2% down. Not as big a drop as yesterday's drop, but coming on the back of yesterday's drop, it adds up.

Some of the Tech Stock Actually Rallied Today

The transports, not down as much, another 1.5% added to yesterday's loss. NASDAQ - some of the tech stock actually rallied today, so that helped the NASDAQ; some were down, though. NASDAQ down 93 points, 1.25%. Russell 2000 down 30 points. That was just under 2%.

If the Stock Market Went down Enough, There Would Be a Bid in the Bond Market

The Bond market was actually up today. Finally we had a day where people were buying bonds. But I said this was going to happen. Eventually, if the stock market went down enough, there would be a bid in the bond market. That's exactly what happened. If the stock market stops falling, then the bond market is going to resume its descent. This is the same dance that we were doing earlier in the year, that eventually came to an end, but we're back where we started from.

So if we get stocks going up, then interest rates are going to go back up, which is going to scare the market. Now they're going to go back down, and so now people will buy bonds.

O…
The Bear Market Has Begun, Recession to Follow – Ep. 398

11 oktober 2018 · 42 min
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831 Point Rout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

If you listened to Friday's podcast, I mentioned that I thought I would probably be doing a lot of podcasts this week. I did one yesterday, and I am doing another one today because my feeling about the stock market was confirmed today with an 831 point rout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 3.15%. This is the biggest decline that the Dow has had since that 1000+ point drop that we had in February. I think it is maybe the third biggest down day ever, point-wise. Percentage-wise it's not even close.

NASDAQ Down Over 4%

The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages. The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points. the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today. And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day.

Financials Helped Lead the Declines

The financials were helping to lead the decline. Again we have Morgan Stanley at a new 52-week low, down 3.3%. Goldman Sachs down 3.6%, a new 52-week low. But really, the biggest losers on the day were the tech stocks. These have been the stand-outs. This is what has been holding up the market - the FAANG stocks, all of these technology infotech stocks - and a lot of people were actually describing them irrationally as a "safe havens". I couldn't believe it when people were saying that tech stocks were the new "safe havens". When you hear stuff like that, you know you're close to the end.

FAANG Stocks Selling in After-Hours Trading

If you look at what some of these darlings did today, and I'm looking at the after-hours prices, too, because they're selling. More selling is going on now, after t…
Why Democrats Hate the Constitution – Ep. 397

10 oktober 2018 · 58 min
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Democrat Women Screaming in Agony

Brett Kavanaugh, over the weekend was confirmed by the Senate, and there were some Democrat women in the gallery watching the vote and they were just screaming in agony; that this was such a terrible thing. I don't think we've ever seen anything like that. They had to have the Sargent at Arms constantly removing people during the vote. The vote passed 50-48, on party lines.

These women were not screaming in pain because they think that a sexual predator is now on the Supreme Court, but apparently they think that Roe v. Wade will be overturned, and that abortions will be illegal in the U.S. This is all a bunch of nonsense. This is not going to happen. This is all much ado about nothing.

Liberal Judges Who Make the Constitution Be Anything They Want It to Mean

What it really all boils down to is that the Left wants a certain type of judges on the Supreme Court. They want liberal judges who believe in big government and all these social programs. They want these judges on the court to have a loose view of the Constitution, that the Constitution means whatever you want it to mean.

What the Republicans want is to appoint justices who will uphold the Constitution - NOT their political agendas. There's a reason for that. If you are a Conservative, you like the Constitution the way it is written. You like the law. If you are a Liberal, you hate the Constitution. The Constitution is a roadblock to everything you want to accomplish.

The Constitution Was Written to Limit the Power of Government

Remember: the Constitution was written to limit the power of government. That's where the laws apply. The Constitution is not about individuals. The Constitution is a law that was meant to apply to the government. to limit the power of the Federal government. To a lesser extent the states, because the Constitution does prohibit the states …
Did Rising Rates Just Prick the Bubble? – Ep. 396

6 oktober 2018 · 52 min
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The Catalyst is Rising Interest Rates

October is just one week old and the carnage on Wall Street has already begun. I wonder if the October complacency is beginning to be shaken with the down move that we see. Now, the Dow Jones is not down very much; in fact, it barely fell on the week; but the S&P was down about 1%. But the NASDAQ was down more than 3% on the week. The catalyst is rising interest rates, which of course, the markets have been ignoring up until Wednesday afternoon, when all of a sudden somebody started to worry about the markets.

A Weak Thursday and Friday Led to 1987 Black Monday

The big declines happened on Thursday and then again today. The declines are not really big; not by the standards of an October crash, but we still have several weeks left for a big down move in October. We had a weak Friday, a weak Thursday - that's exactly what we had in October of 1987, which led to Black Monday.

Economy Far More Vulnerable to a Rate Shock

Remember, the backdrop there was rising interest rates. We have interest rates rising now, of course they're not nearly as high as they were back then. But percentage-wise, this is probably even higher, given where we're starting from. Of course, the economy is much more highly leveraged now than it was in 1987 and it's actually far more vulnerable to a rate shock now, than it was then. Of course, back then, people were worried about rising trade deficits - they're even bigger now than they were back then.

Investors Not Smart Enough to Worry About Trade

In fact, we got the trade deficit out today for August. Another jump following the jump we had in July. I think it was the biggest increase in 6 months. Imports are rising, exports are falling. It's bad news on trade. People were worried about trade back in 1987. They're not smart enough to worry about it now, but they should. The trade deficit is probably more important …
Trump’s NAFTA Rebrand Is a Marketing Fraud – Ep. 395

3 oktober 2018 · 59 min
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NAFTA was the Worst Deal in World History?

I want to talk about Donald Trump's new trade deal. When Donald Trump was running for President, he said that NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) was the worst trade deal ever negotiated ever by anyone in world history. It wasn't just the worst trade deal that America got into, it was the worst trade deal that anybody ever got into.

I don't know how many trade deals Donald Trump actually studied, and whether he compared them to NAFTA to know that NAFTA was worse than any other deal that had ever been negotiated, but that was his claim. In fact, even in the ceremony where he took credit for the new deal that he negotiated he repeated that NAFTA was the worst deal ever negotiated.

We Went from a Good Name to a Lousy Name

Then he unveiled his deal, which he now calls the greatest deal ever negotiated. So we went from the worst deal in the history of deals to the best deal in the history of deals. The problem is, it is basically the same deal! The only thing that has really changed is the name. We went from a good name to a lousy name, and the funny thing about it is Donald Trump is claiming that the name is better. The old name was NAFTA. The new name is USMCA. Us-ma-ca! Us-ma-ca? What kind of name is that? We basically went from a nice name to a ridiculous name.

NAFTA Re-Branded with a Worse Name

But the bottom line is that's probably the most substantive difference between the two deals. Pretty much, it is the same deal. Yet this is the greatest deal in history and the old deal was the worst deal ever. This is standard operating procedure for Donald Trump. Everything is great now that he is President. Donald Trump pretended everything was awful before he was elected, and now, he's made everything fantastic, but he hasn't done anything.

You listen to Fox News, they're talking about this thing like it is t…
Could Soaring Twin Deficits Portend October Surprise? – Ep. 394

29 september 2018 · 56 min
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Ominous October

Today was the end of the month of September; it's also the end of the third quarter we are now beginning the final quarter of the year. When we come back to trading next week, we will be in the month of October, and as I mentioned on my last podcast, we have had some substantial stock market declines in October, obviously not every October has a big drop, in fact most of the Octobers don't, but some of the most notable declines have occurred in the month of October, including the crash of 1987 and the crash of 1929.

You'd Think There Would Be More Concern

But given that our valuations are probably higher now than they were at those prior peaks, you would think that there would be more concern right now about the possibility of another October surprise in the way of a major decline in the stock market. But the stock market finished the day positive - on the week it was a mixed picture. The Dow Jones was down a bit and the NASDAQ was up on a week that the Federal Reserve did, in fact, raise interest rates yet again, as expected. Now we're at 2-2.25%.

Italy's Economy Putting Pressure on the Euro

The yield, though, on the long bond actually went down, in fact, it was down a little bit again today (Buy the rumor sell the fact). The dollar continued to rise and I thought that maybe we would have seen a dollar sell-off following the rate hike. But I think the reason is because of the weakness in the euro, the result of what's going on in Italy. The Italian market is under a lot of pressure because the Italian government is running deficits that exceed 2% deficit guideline imposed by the Eurozone. I think that Italy's proposed new budget deficit is 2.4% of Italian GDP. This puts pressure on Italy which is also putting pressure on the euro.

Our Debt to GDP Is Twice That of Italy

It's interesting that if America tried to get into the EU, we could…
The Hike that Breaks the Market’s Back – Ep. 393

27 september 2018 · 48 min
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Eighth Interest Rate Hike Lees meer

As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the eighth time, today. The rate is now 2 to 2.25 percent, so I guess the midpoint is 2.125%. The move was highly anticipated, of course, even I expected the Fed to raise rates. At this point I had been expecting that for some time ever since the Fed first began raising interest rates it became apparent that they would continue to move rates higher.

"Accommodative" is Out

The only thing that was potentially significant about this rate hike was the removal of the word "accommodative" by the Fed in their official statement to describe the current state of monetary policy. I initially thought that that was a significant removal of the word. Obviously, the Federal Reserve thinks very carefully about the written statements, so if they chose to remove a word, that was there, and they know that people parse through these words with a microscope. The fact that the word was missing, obviously by intention - it wasn't just an accident - that they're trying to send a message.

Maybe Neutral?

What I first thought the message was, and I still believe that was in fact the message (even if the Fed is trying to backpedal), but that the Federal Reserve views a 2% as neither accommodative nor restrictive. Maybe neutral. The Fed now believes that rates are high enough that they would no longer be described as accommodative.

Interest Still Below Inflation: Negative Rates

Meanwhile, rates are at 2%. Two percent in my mind is still a highly accommodative monetary policy, especially when the annual rate of inflation, even the way the government measures it, is above 2%. That means you still have negative rates of interest. How can you describe negative real rates as anything but accommodative?

Powell: "Don't Read Anything Into The Omission of Accommodative"

Powell was specifically asked about the removal of the word accommodative from the statement during the Q&A period that followed the official…
Divided Government Will Not Be Bullish for This Market – Ep. 392

25 september 2018 · 49 min
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Divided Government is Good?

If the Democrats get control of Congress, which is a likely occurrence, what I'm hearing now is that this is bullish for the stock market! The stock market bulls are saying that if we have divided government that this is historically positive for the markets. So even if the Republicans lose control of the House, and maybe even the Senate, it's OK, because it's divided government and that is good.

Hoping for More Deregulation

This is a bunch of nonsense. Has divided government historically been a positive? I think so, in that when you have a divided government you are less likely to make progress in legislation and since most legislation is harmful, the less legislation you get is better. But in the situation we have now, the hope is that we will have deregulation. That the progress that Trump will make will be in removing regulation. Obviously if the Democrats take control of Congress, if you were hoping for more deregulation then your divided government will put a stop to that. So if divided government keeps government from getting smaller then it is not a good thing. If divided government stops the government from getting bigger, then maybe you could say it is positive.

Building an Entire Stock Market Rally on Trump's Agenda

But if you have built an entire stock market rally off of the supposed success of Donald Trump and his agenda, and his ability to get his agenda through Congress, that ability is going to be substantially curtailed, if not completely eliminated if the Democrats control Congress. Nothing that Trump wants to do will get through Congress so if you've been betting that it would, then the Republicans losing control of Congress is definitely a bad thing.

Not The Contract with America

This is not Newt Gingrich and The Contract with America, when Republican control of Congress forced Bill Clinton to move to th…
The Trump Tariff Put Will Expire Worthless – Ep. 391

22 september 2018 · 55 min
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Illusion will be Replaced with Harsh Reality

This is dangerous stuff. This is the same thing thing that was being said when George Bush was President. Just because you're a Republican you don't have to claim that anything that was done by another Republican is great, in order to make the Democrats look bad. Ultimately that comes back and bites you because you loose credibility when the economy turns down. When it turns out that it was just a bubble, it was just an illusion, and when the illusion is replaced with harsh reality, you've got nothing and it makes it easier for the other side to scapegoat Capitalism for the problems and to hold out more government as the solution.

The Trump Tariff Put

One of the more ridiculous ideas that are floating around now is the existence of the so-called "Trump Tariff Put". I've heard a lot of talk about that and basically, it goes like this: Trump is very concerned about the stock market; yes, he is threatening these tariffs - we have additional tariffs. If the tariffs actually prove to be harmful to the economy or to the stock market or to both, Trump can simply soften his stance, or maybe just surrender in the trade war. Just give up on the tariffs and the stock market will come roaring back. If the stock market is falling because of the tariffs and then we take the tariffs away, there's no reason the stock market won't just rally back up. So in other words, there's this put. It' s heads, the market wins, tails nobody loses.

Even If the Market Goes Down, You're Going to Get Bailed Out

As long as the tariffs aren't doing any damage, the markets keep going up, but if it turns out that the tariffs do damage, then they get rid of them, and the market resumes, even if it temporarily went down. So that is the Trump put, just like the Greenspan put, which became the Bernanke put, the Yellen put (whether or not there's a Po…
The Camel Owns the Tent – Ep. 390

19 september 2018 · 48 min
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Sacrificed on the Altar of Political Correctness

I want to spend the rest of this podcast talking about politics; in particular, what's going on with Brett Kavanaugh and his fading chances of sitting on the Supreme Court. It appears that he may be sacrificed on the altar of political correctness. I also blame the Republicans for allowing this to happen - to have fallen into this trap; not just with Kavanaugh.

No Sense of Proportion

This has been slowly building, the camel's nose under the tent, and once the Democrats play this card - and this is not the racist card this is the rape card, the violence against women card. there's a zero tolerance now. You can't even create the appearance that one is somehow tolerant of any kind of sexual abuse against women. There is no sense of proportion.

Allegation About a 35-Year Old Event

There was an allegation that became more significant 2 days ago when a previously unnamed woman who claimed that BrettKavanaugh assaulted her when they were in high school. Now, of course, Kavanaugh is 53 years old now, so this is over 35 years ago.

There Was a Lot of Alcohol at This Party

Kavanaugh denied the initial allegation. Initially, the identity of the woman was unknown, as was the nature of the "sexual assault". So Kavanaugh denied it. Now we actually have a name: Christine Blasey Ford, 51, a professor of Psychology, a registered Democrat. She has come forward now with the details of the encounter and the lack of details, because much of it she does not recall. After all, it happened 35 years ago, and according to the accuser, there was a lot of alcohol at this party. She says that Kavanaugh was drunk, so she was probably drunk herself. I don't know if she has admitted to being drunk - there was alcohol at the party and the boys were drinking it. It stands to reason that she probably had some alcohol herself.

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The Next Economic Hurricane Will Be a Category 5 – Ep. 389

15 september 2018 · 1 uur 7 min
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Making the Rich Pay

Julia Salazar, another Democratic Socialist defeated Martin Dilan in the NY Senate primary. The only reference to taxes on her website was to "make the rich pay their fair share". That's it. Nothing about what specifically she wants to raise, by how much she wants to raise it and how much money is going to come it. This is going to be provided, that is going to be provided, and the people vote for her! This is how dumb the electorate has become.

Shift to Democratic Socialism

This is what I have been warning about on this podcast. This shift in the political spectrum. The Democrats are moving to the left. Democratic incumbents are going to be replaced by Socialists or will have to openly embrace Socialism themselves in order to maintain their seats. This is very dangerous, because when it does hit the fan, and it should hit the fan before the next elections a Democrat is going to be the next President, and the Democrats are going to control Congress. It's not going to be the Democratic party of Bill Clinton or even Barack Obama. It will be the Democratic party of Bernie Sanders.

Sovereign Debt Crisis and Dollar Crisis

We're going back to the anniversary of the Financial Crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the next crisis, which will be a sovereign debt crisis and a dollar crisis. It's going to be much much worse. Bailouts are not going to work; stimulus is not going to work.

Injecting Stimulus Directly into the Rears of the Democratic Voters

But they're not going to try the same type of stimulus. They're not going to talk about injecting monetary heroin into the banking system to create a wealth effect. They're going to inject the stimulus right into the rear ends of the Democratic voters. They're going to want to give the money directly to the people, whether it is through some kind of basic income program or government make-work or forgiv…
Yes to Socialism Means No to Freedom – Ep. 388

12 september 2018 · 48 min
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Another Round of Tax Cuts

Now the Republicans are talking about another round of tax cuts. Just in time for the November election. Whether or not these tax cuts actually get passed is anyone's guess, but it will be an issue on the campaign trail, either because they delivered the tax cut or because the only thing standing in the way of a tax cut is the Democrats. Remember the individual tax cuts were passed the last time are temporary - they phase out. The corporate rates do not phase out. Of course, all tax cuts are temporary because any Congress can raise taxes any time it wants, so it's just semantics.

Temporary Tax Cuts Were a Lie

The reason they had to make the individual tax cuts temporary was so that they can pretend that the increase in the budget deficits was not going to be as high as everybody knew that it was. The presumption was that Congress would vote to extend them. Here we are, not even a year has gone by and the Republicans already want to come back and make them permanent, which shows that the temporary tax cuts were a lie.

Government Revenues up 1% - Government Spending Up 7%

The August budget deficit was $211 billion - nearly double the deficit that we had in the same month last year. In the first 8 months of the year, the deficit is $895 billion. This is a trillion dollar deficit during a supposedly booming economy. If we can't generate surpluses in a booming economy, imagine the enormity of the deficits when the economy is not booming,. Imagine how bad the deficits will be when the economy is actually in a recession. In this most recent year, the deficit is $222 billion higher than the previous year and government spending is up 7%, yet revenues only rose 1%. So it is not closing the gap, not by a long shot.

Too Big to Bail

The U.S. government is too big to bail - not too big to fail - too big to bail. Of course the government technically does not need a bailout…
What Are Investors Smoking? – Ep. 387

8 september 2018 · 37 min
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GM Hit New Low for the Year

If you want to look at some of the signals you're getting from the markets, look at the automobile stocks: General Motors and Ford, which are basically the only 2 automobile companies we have left. (Chrysler is now owned by Fiat.) They both hit 52-week lows today and they're both in bear markets. General Motors closed at $33.91 - a new low for the year. The stock was as high as $46.76 in June. The stock is down almost 30% in the last couple of months. It's a bear market.

Ford at a Six-Year Low

The story at Ford is even worse. Ford was up at around $12 a couple of months ago. It is down to $9.27. If you look at its high - it was at $16 in September of 2014. Ford is down to where it was the summer of 2012 - 6 years ago. It's at a 6-year low. If we go any lower we'll be at an . 8-year low.

Two Auto Companies Solidly in Bear Market

So you've got our 2 automobile companies solidly in bear market territory, making new lows. These are vital parts of the economy. There are many industries that feed off these companies, the aftermarket industries. These are the good jobs, the high paying jobs that Trump promised to bring back. Remember he was really campaigning in Detroit and other places where they make cars. These companies are hitting multi-year lows.

Tariffs Aren't Helping Auto Industry

So the tariffs aren't working. The tax cuts aren't working. The auto companies are going down. Remember, stocks are forward looking, so the stocks are basically saying that there is a big slowdown coming in the automobile sector. Profits are not going to be there. Tax cuts are not going to be very valuable if there aren't any profits.

Industry Slowdown in Home Building

Also look at what is happening with the home building companies. All these stocks getting killed - some down over 5% today alone. They are pretty much all in bear market territory. So now the homebuilders are als…
Fake News Runs the Gamut – Ep. 386

6 september 2018 · 57 min
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Another Bear Market Before the Election Lees meer

The odds are that we are going to have another bear market and we're going to have another recession and the odds are that both are going to start before the next election. What are the odds that Trump can be re-elected if we are in a recession and in a bear market? The only thing that Trump's got going for himself is to talk about how great the economy is, and how high the stock market is. You take that out and what does he have left?

Trump Claims Most Accomplishments Than any other President in History

I was listening to a press conference with the President today, and one of the false claims he made is that he said, "I've accomplished more in the first two years of office than any President in history." Now, I don't know where he is getting this; what exactly has he accomplished as compared to other Presidents' accomplishments. I'll agree, most modern Presidents, to the extent that they accomplish, they accomplish larger government.

We Started with Perfect Government - Small!

We started from a perfect place. We started with limited government, and most of what Presidents have accomplished was to accomplish more government by allowing more legislation to be passed, making government bigger and restricting individual liberty. From that perspective, I like a President who accomplishes nothing. We started with maximum liberty and minimal government. What I want to accomplish is maintaining minimal government.

Shrink Government and Enable Private Sector to be Great Again

When Donald Trump talked about "Making America Great Again", if he actually wanted to do it, restoring our greatness means shrinking government and enabling the private sector to be great again by removing all the burdens that have been placed on it. Has Trump actually done more, good or bad, than any other President? I doubt it.

Who Saved Social Security?

But one of the things that Trump claimed credit for, is that he said he "saved Social Security an…
Let’s Honor the Labor of the Entrepreneur – Ep. 385

1 september 2018 · 54 min
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What About Employers' Day?

Labor Day is coming up on Monday it it annoys me that we just have a Labor Day and we don't have an Entrepreneur Day. We don't have a day to celebrate the employer. Why is that? The entrepreneurs are the unsung heroes of the American economy. I'm not saying that the workers don't make a contribution, but the assumption, when you talk about workers is that the boss doesn't work. If you look at small businesses, in general, the owner of the business works harder that anybody else. They're usually the first one there and the last one to leave.

Employers Don't All Get the Luxury of a Paycheck

When someone owns a business, they don't have the luxury of collecting a paycheck. They get paid only if there is a profit. They get paid only after all the workers get paid, the landlord gets a check, and if they borrowed money they have to pay interest to the creditor, they have to buy all the equipment, they have to pay all the bills. Sometimes businesses lose money for years while the owner works 18-hour days. So that's who we should be celebrating, but we don't do that.

Politicians Know Where the Votes Are

Why is that? Why do politicians try to get the votes of the employees? That's where all the votes are. Most people are employees. Few people have the know-how to run a business. Try to make a business run, try to organize all the pieces and get it to work, that's a very difficult thing to do, and that's why most people don't even try. Everybody gets a day off with pay, which is great for the worker, but the money to pay everybody not to work comes from the boss.

Thank Your Boss

But want to wish everybody a happy Labor Day, especially all you employers out there. If you have a boss, thank him or her. Express thanks for all the hard work it takes to make sure your paycheck doesn't bounce. Anybody can sign the back of a paycheck. It is much harder to sign the front of…
Hawkish Fed Narrative Slowly Changing – Ep. 384

30 augustus 2018 · 56 min
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Fed Responsible for Most Recent Move Up

I think what's really responsible for this most recent move up is the Fed comments. Now maybe Trump can take credit for those, maybe President Trump was able to get Jerome Powell's mind right after all, when it comes to rate hikes, although, if you look at the coverage from Jackson Hole, most people think that Powell stood strong and was resisting the calls from Trump to go easy on rate hikes and he was standing by the Fed's commitment to raising rates. But that was not really what was said. Not just by Powell, but by other Fed officials who were there who were giving interviews from Jackson Hole.

2% Today Is Not the Same Thing as 2% in the 1990's

To me it was clear, and I mentioned this on my previous podcast about the Fed being willing to let the inflation genie out of the bottle, that the Fed is basically back-tracking on rate hikes that the markets may have anticipated for 2019, by talking about how interest rates are closer to normal now. That 2% today is not the same thing as 2% in the 1990's, not wanting to invert the yield curve, waiting for the whites of inflation's eyes before they actually come out blasting by doing everything that it takes.

Pound of Cure Beats an Ounce of Prevention

I think that the Fed has basically said we are going to sit back, we're not going to be pre-emptive on inflation fighting, we don't think inflation is going to break out, but if we're wrong, then we'll do whatever it takes. Basically the Fed's new attitude is, "Why take an ounce of prevention when you can always use a pound of cure?" Because when it comes to inflation, that ounce of prevention, given how frail the economy actually is and what a big bubble we have, that ounce of prevention could be lethal so let's just forget about that. Somehow we're going to be able to slam the economy with a pound of cure, we're going to be able to get aggre…
Fed to Let Inflation Genie out of the Bottle – Ep. 383

25 augustus 2018 · 42 min
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Dovish Speech Given by Jerome Powell

The catalyst for the rise in gold and the decline in the dollar, I believe, was the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell today in Jackson Hole. Whether or not the speech is perceived as dovishly as I believe it is, I think we're going to have to see if we are going to get some follow through in the dollar and in the gold market next week. It is critical to see how the markets follow through to today's actions. If I'm right, we could see a big move up in the price of gold next week and a big move down in the dollar.

Hedge Funds Are Net Short Gold

Remember we've got a lot of people who are short gold now for the first time since 2001, the hedge funds were net short gold and I think they could get caught in a losing trade and have to scramble to buy back the gold that they sold. Also, lots of people are now loaded up long the dollar, short the emerging market currencies. But the impetus for this trade, the momentum, had to do with the bullish posture of the Fed and the anticipation that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet.

Second-Guessing Assumptions

But if what Jerome Powell said today causes traders to second guess those assumptions and maybe dial back their expectations for rate hikes - maybe not necessarily the 2 rate hikes that everybody believes are coming in the balance of 2018 - but potentially the idea that there may be no rate hikes at all coming in 2019, that 2018 may be the end of it. In fact, maybe, we won't even get the December rate hike. I think to the extent the traders start to re-price the odds of future rate hikes this could be a big move in the dollar, a big move in gold and again, we have got to see what happens, because maybe this was a one day event… maybe traders are not going to read into Powells comments what I think he meant. But, given the reaction that we had today, I thi…

Alle afleveringen

Dovish Fed Won’t Fly – Ep. 432

Bad News is Bad News – Ep. 431

Santa Claus Rally Came Just the Same – Ep. 430

The Grinch Stole the Santa Claus Rally – Ep. 429

The Fed’s Deal with the Devil – Ep. 428

The Fed Put a Fork in the Stock Market – Ep. 427

A December to Remember – Ep. 426

Why Obamacare Is Unconstitutional – Ep. 425

Under Socialism Even Bad Sex Is Good – Ep. 424

The Fed Hiked Itself into Insolvency – Ep. 423

A Bubble That Will Live in Infamy – Ep. 422

The Fed’s Policy Mistake Started with Greenspan – Ep. 421

A Nation Can’t Tax Itself Rich – Ep. 420

Trump Backs down on Tariffs – Ep. 419

The Fed Flinches, Powell Put in Play – Ep. 418

Two Wrongs Never Make a Right – Ep. 417

As Bubbles Burst the Malinvestments Are Exposed – Ep. 416

The Confidence Bubble Has Popped – Ep. 415

Even Jim Cramer Knows More Than the Fed – Ep. 414

Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop – Ep. 413

Share Buyback Chickens Coming Home to Roost – Ep. 412

Rising Prices Reflect Inflation Not Growth – Ep. 411

Divided Government Will Produce Larger Deficits – Ep. 410

Vote Against Socialism and Identity Politics – Ep. 409

Jobs Are Another Bubble About to Pop – Ep. 408

Bulls Ain’t Afraid of No Bear Market – Ep. 407

FANG’s Take a Bite Out of the Market – Ep. 406

Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

A Record Trade Deficit Is Not Winning – Ep. 404

Will Fed Capitulation Forestall Stock Market Crash? – Ep. 403

Guns & Butter to the Moon – Ep. 402

How Many Canaries Have to Die? – Ep. 401

Fake Accounting Trumps Fake News – Ep. 400

Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down – Ep. 399

The Bear Market Has Begun, Recession to Follow – Ep. 398

Why Democrats Hate the Constitution – Ep. 397

Did Rising Rates Just Prick the Bubble? – Ep. 396

Trump’s NAFTA Rebrand Is a Marketing Fraud – Ep. 395

Could Soaring Twin Deficits Portend October Surprise? – Ep. 394

The Hike that Breaks the Market’s Back – Ep. 393

Divided Government Will Not Be Bullish for This Market – Ep. 392

The Trump Tariff Put Will Expire Worthless – Ep. 391

The Camel Owns the Tent – Ep. 390

The Next Economic Hurricane Will Be a Category 5 – Ep. 389

Yes to Socialism Means No to Freedom – Ep. 388

What Are Investors Smoking? – Ep. 387

Fake News Runs the Gamut – Ep. 386

Let’s Honor the Labor of the Entrepreneur – Ep. 385

Hawkish Fed Narrative Slowly Changing – Ep. 384

Fed to Let Inflation Genie out of the Bottle – Ep. 383