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Trump’s Denial of the Obvious Compounds His Mistake – Ep. 382
23 augustus 2018 · 52 min
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Trump Suffers Huge Double Blow
Yesterday, two key people - one the President's former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted of multiple counts of serious financial crimes, and later that day, Michael Cohen, the President's personal attorney, copped a plea to multiple financial crimes. So you have two key figures in Trump's campaign who are not criminals.
Violation of Campaign Finance Laws
Now, obviously, the President has not admitted to a crime, he has not been convicted of a crime, but still - guilt by association. The most problematic, at least thus far, is the fact that one of the crimes that Micheal Cohen pled guilty to had to do with violation of campaign finance laws. He made two large payments ($100,000+) to two women, one was a porn star and one was an ex-Playboy playmate. Both of these women claimed that they had had affairs with Donald Trump. In order to buy their silence, to pay them off, Donald Trump funneled some money, through Michael Cohen, to these two women.
Trump's Original Story Doesn't Make Sense
Of course, Donald Trump claims that he knew nothing about it - that Michael Cohen just decided on his own to make these payments and Donald Trump didn't even know about it. That was his original story until he changed his story and said he found out about it later. Although, they even have a tape recording of Donald Trump and Michael Cohen discussing how to make the payments before they were made.
Guilt By Association
Of course, Trump's version of the story doesn't make sense. But now Michael Cohen, as part of his plea, said that the payments that he made were made at the direction of the President. Donald Trump asked him to make the payments, he made the payments, and he has now pled guilty to the crime of making those payments. So if it was criminal for Michael Cohen to pay off these women the way he did, well then obviously the President conspired…
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Making the Dollar Weak Again – Ep. 381
21 augustus 2018 · 50 min
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Strong Dollar Policy?
There used to be a lot of talk about the so-called Strong Dollar Policy. We had the Strong Dollar Policy when Bill Clinton was President, George Bush; I guess when Barack Obama was President, as well. I've talked about it, I've written about it in Crash Proof, How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse; I talked about it like it was the Loch Ness monster. Everybody knows about it, everybody's heard about it but no one has actually seen it.
We Like the Strong Dollar. A Strong Dollar is Good for America
We didn't actually have an official policy that constituted the strong dollar policy. It was simply talking about the strong dollar being in the national interest, and that was just the mantra that was repeated often by the Secretary of the Treasury or by the President. "We like the strong dollar. A strong dollar is good for America… and that pretty much constituted the policy.
The Trend Was Your Friend
But nonetheless, having the belief that there was some kind of hidden strong dollar policy helped to create confidence in the dollar, even in periods of time when the dollar was declining. Perhaps it would have declined even more had it not been for the belief that there was some kind of strong dollar policy. And of course, when the dollar was rising, the "strong dollar policy" really helped add fuel to the increase because after all, you were riding the policy. So the dollar was going up and that was what the U.S. government wanted, so it was all good. The trend was your friend.
Donald Trump's Weak Dollar Policy
Well, it should be obvious that Donald Trump has a weak dollar policy, whether he wants to name it or not, that's the policy. Of course, the weak dollar policy will not involve actually doing anything, just as the strong dollar policy didn't involve doing anything, but I think the rhetoric will have the same impact in that when the dollar…
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Revisionist History Portends Socialist Future – Ep. 380
17 augustus 2018 · 52 min
The Accountable Capitalism Act Lees meer
Elizabeth Warren unveiled her new idea in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. It is her new bill, called the Accountable Capitalism Act. Of course, I have said this before, there is no truth in advertising when it comes to legislation. Whenever Congress passes a bill, the name of the bill is generally the opposite of what the bill actually does. So if they pass a bill called, "Tax Simplification", that means that they just complicated the tax code. But nobody wants to vote for a bill that's called "Tax Complication", so you can't label it "Tax Complication" when that's what we're doing, so you label it Simplification so everybody will like it.
This is All About Socialism
That's what Elizabeth Warren is doing in her Accountable Capitalism Act. This is not about Capitalism. This is about Socialism. The idea here is that Capitalism is not accountable, and so this act is going to hold Capitalism accountable. In reality, capitalism holds everybody accountable. Under a Capitalist system, everybody is accountable for their own actions. If you screw up, then you have to suffer the consequences. If you make a mistake, it's on you. If your business fails, there's not bail-out.
Capitalism is the Ultimate in Accountability
So Capitalism is the ultimate in accountability. It's fair and everybody is held accountable for their own decisions and their own actions. What Elizabeth Warren wants to do is to take that accountability away. She wants to have the government get in there and take away the accountability inherent in the Capitalist system.
The Socialist Un-Accountability Act
Not only is the act mislabeled, it is actually the Socialist Un-Accountability Act. It wants to take people who would normally be accountable and make them unaccountable. It's all Socialism wrapped up in a Capitalist bow. What she wants to do is:
* She wants to force corporations with over $1 billion in revenue, regardless of their profit, to appoint at least 40% o…
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Populism and Democracy Are a Dangerous Combination – Ep. 379
15 augustus 2018 · 38 min
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Turkey's Current Account Deficit
The "Turkey baste" continued on Monday, although Tuesday we did have a bit of a reversal, Tuesday bounce in the lira, rising about 7 percent or so, in today's trading. But still, it is down considerably from where it was a few weeks - a few months ago. But I do believe that the financial media is exaggerating the problems that existed in Turkey prior to the crisis reaching the headlines. Yes, Turkey has a current account deficit, but the current account deficit is not nearly as large as the media is making it out to be. In fact, it is similar in size to the current account deficit that the United States is running, if you look it as a percentage of GDP. In fact, Turkey's trade deficit is a much smaller percentage of its GDP than is the American trade deficit.
Dollar Strength Hurting Emerging Markets
The problem in Turkey is twofold: one is the strengthening dollar, which is putting pressure on all of the emerging markets' currencies and economies. It's just that Turkey was a weaker link in that chain, so Turkey is being disproportionately impacted by the outlook that the dollar is going to keep rising. This puts a lot of pressure on economies where there has been a lot of foreign investment. A lot of loans are in dollars. A lot of the money that has been coming into the Turkish economy has been private investment, fueling capital investment within the Turkish economy. It 's not the government borrowing all this money; it's businesses borrowing money. The international community was willing to lend. After all, interest rates were really low for a long period of time and so capital was chasing a higher yield and some of that capital went into emerging markets, including Turkey. But obviously, you have a lot of loans that are dollar denominated and that's one reason that a rising dollar is so ba…
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America is the Real Turkey – Ep. 378
11 augustus 2018 · 55 min
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Turkey is the Epicenter of Emerging Market Concerns
Right now, the epicenter of the concerns about the emerging markets is coming from Turkey. What is the problem with the Turkish lira? Turkish President Erdogan is veering off into some very dangerous territory with his stance with the Central Bank of Turkey and now the political battle of egos that he is having with President Trump over the release of an American pastor who is imprisoned in Turkey. As a result of this, the President is now turning up the heat on Turkey with sanctions, which is compounding Turkey's problems. Today was probably the biggest one day drop in the Turkish lira. Today, the Turkish lira might have been down about 20% intra day.
Trump Doubling Down on Tariffs with Turkey
Throwing fuel on the fire, early in the morning, when the lira was already down 12%, Trump announced that he would be doubling the existing tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum. Turkey has a trade surplus with the U.S. like just about everybody else. Is this going to hurt Turkey? A little bit. Obviously it hurts Americans more because now Turkish steel is that much more expensive.
Speculative Frenzy Shorting the Turkish Lira
All of this is adding fuel to the speculative frenzy to short the Turkish lira. I think you have a lot of hot speculative money that has been leaning down on that currency. It is basically fueling an even bigger problem. They have high inflation, they have very high bond yields. The yields in Turkey up until recently, even though inflation was high, you had 400-500 basis points of positive bond yields.
Turkish Economy Essentially Strong
The Turkish economy has actually been quite strong over the years. As a result of that a lot of international money has been invested in Turkey. Foreign direct investment has been going into the Turkish economy, participating in the Turkish equity market, lenders have been loaning money. Some of that debt of cour…
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Double Standards and Hypocrisy of the Left – Ep. 377
8 augustus 2018 · 55 min
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Alex Jones Banned
Alex Jones was banned from iTunes, Facebook, YouTube - his entire YouTube Channel is gone! He had over a million subscribers. The Alex Jones videos on my YouTube channel where I appeared as a guest are still up, but the ones on Alex's site are no longer there.
What About the First Amendment?
This raises a lot of very interesting and disturbing questions. First of all, you have a lot of people talking about censorship. What about the first amendment? The most important thing to remember about freedom of speech is that all of that has to do with government. Government cannot infringe on your freedom of speech. This has nothing to do with a private business. So, Facebook or YouTube are private companies. I don't have a right to have a YouTube channel. When you sign up for YouTube, they have the terms & conditions and you agree... YouTube doesn't charge me to have a YouTube channel; I don't have a right to demand one - it's private property. I can still do videos and get them out on this website and on other channels. I can listen to the Alex Jones Show podcast, even though it is not on iTunes.
Banning an Opinion
I don't think YouTube and Facebook taking Alex Jones off is a First Amendment issue, or is censorship. It certainly is a double standard. Why are Alex Jones' videos being taken down? Supposedly because it is hate speech or fake news. It is his opinion, and if you don't want to listen to it, don't. I don't think he is out there inciting violence. There are actually sites on YouTube and Facebook that do advocate violence. There are Communist YouTube channels. Why is that allowed on YouTube? What is Communism? That is where the government forcibly steals private property. Communism is a much bigger threat to the families in Newtown than Alex Jones denying that there was a shooting there.
Intolerance for Any Opinion that Di…
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Mainstream View on Trade Dangerously Wrong – Ep. 376
4 augustus 2018 · 49 min
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Ridiculous Rhetoric in Tariffs
One of the drivers behind the increasing cost of living is going to be the tariffs. The rhetoric here is really ridiculous. Talking heads on the mainstream media say, "We've got China by the balls..." "We're going to make them feel some pain..." "They're going to give in..." We're going to force them to play fair because they have so much to lose..."
We Have More to Lose and China Has More to Gain
The reason that the Chinese stock market is suffering more than the American stock market is because investors are clueless. They believe all the nonsense that China is going to lose the trade war and America is going to win. It couldn't be further from the truth. We have a lot more to lose, in fact China has a lot to gain, if they would only figure it out. Why have the Chinese for so long been willing to subsidize the U.S. economy? That is what they have been doing. They have been artificially suppressing the standard of living of their own people so they can prop up the standard of living in America. They have been denying their own citizens the production they otherwise would have been entitled to by diverting that production to exports.
Economists Made Same Faulty Analysis After WWII
This is the same type of argument that economists made, and I pointed this out on my first book, Crash Proof: The Second World War was nearing an end. There were economists who were worried that the end of the war would bring about a recession because there would be lots of unemployment. All of the factories that were producing military products wouldn't have anything to make anymore. And all the soldiers and factory workers would be unemployed. Everybody was worried that there would be a big economic downturn.
U.S. Postwar Economy Boomed Because the Government Dramatically Cut Spending
Fortunately nobody took the…
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Why Doesn’t Trump Cut Spending by Executive Order? – Ep. 375
1 augustus 2018 · 49 min
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Abolish the Capital Gains Tax?
If we simply had no capital gains tax, but wen are still taxing the worker on the value of his labor without any deductions whatsoever, I just don't think that's a fair system. That's one of the reasons I would not want to just abolish the capital gains tax. I would want to abolish the entire income tax and go to an indirect tax, such as sales tax or tariffs. We would obviously have a much smaller government if it had to survive on indirect taxes, on excise taxes. This is what the framers of the (of the Constitution) originally envisioned. They thought that direct taxes, like an income tax, would only be used during times of war. That's why they made it so hard to enact.
Indirect Tax Rather than Direct Tax
During peacetime, the government was supposed to operate on excise taxes. Of course, the whole idea of income tax to me is inconsistent with free people. Free people do not have to report everything to the government. They don't have to fill out paperwork under penalty of perjury and file all these tax returns, keep all these records. If the government is forcing us to do all this, the government is the master and the people are the servants. That is not what America is supposed to be about.
Is Government the Master and We the Servants?
Of course, the biggest problem I have with the capital gains tax cut is that government spending is not also being cut. So we're talking about another tax cut without reducing the size of government. Since government spending needs to be paid for, if we're going to cut the capital gains tax, how are we going to pay for government spending that capital gains taxes used to pay for? Obviously we are going to borrow it. And borrowed money is going to do more damage to the economy than any benefit we get from reducing the capital gains tax.
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Peak GDP Sets Stage for Major Economic Fail – Ep. 374
28 juli 2018 · 49 min
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U.S. GDP Growth Reported at 4.1%
Today we finally got the highly anticipated first look at U.S. economic growth, or really GDP growth, because the GDP is not that great a barometer of the economy. Nonetheless, thats the one that everybody uses to measure it, and that's the one that we're going to talk about. Perhaps I can get into why the GDP is such a flawed measure in a different podcast; I really don't want to get into it today. I just want to talk about the numbers that are being spoon-fed.
Atlanta Fed Forecast of 3.8% Might Be Closer to Final Number
In any event, we got the number today, and there was initially a loth of estimates that we could just blow it away this quarter, that we could have a number north of 5%, and we got 4.1%. So, we at least are above 4%, which lets Donald Trump brag about the number being over 4%, although we'll see how long it stays over 4%. You know, we did get a lot of data that was coming out this week, and in recent weeks. In fact, the Atlanta Fed lowered its forecast, which at one point was as high as 5.4% and it lowered it down to 3.8% yesterday. I think that 38 might end up being more accurate than the 4.1%. In fact, we may end up being below 3.8% by the time they make the final revisions.
Celebration May Be Premature
They actually revised the first quarter back up to 2.2%. So they revise these things constantly. The first number is rarely the correct number. In theory, they could revise it up but I think it's more likely that the revision is going to be down, so the celebration is premature.
New Home Sales Lowest in 8 Months
Two numbers that came out this week that caused the Atlanta Fed to move down to 3.8%: one was new home sales. It was the lowest in 8 months. In fact, they revised down some prior months. I had already reported in a previous podcast the weak numbers for existing home sales, which is a bigger number because most of the homes that are bought already exist. But t…
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Ep. 373: Freedom Is Great; Tariffs Are Not.
25 juli 2018 · 51 min
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Voting Responsibly for Freedom
I am "pro" young people because I want them to grow up in a free country. I want them to have every opportunity to be as prosperous as possible. Democracy is actually an enemy of freedom. Young people have a better chance to achieve their goals if the 18-19-20 year old generation aren't voting for leaders who pass policies that will actually undermine our success and our progress. They're not sophisticated enough yet; they don't know enough yet about the real world to understand the real role of government.
Socialism Masquerading as Capitalism
The goal is to have the best government. that's why we don't let elementary kids vote. Why? because they are not sophisticated enough and even 18-year olds who have never had a job are not able to discern what we need for good government. I am trying to reach more and more young people to help them understand the benefits of freedom and capitalism and understand the dangers of socialism and of socialism that is masquerading as capitalism, crony capitalism and corporatism. We have the U.S. government controlling the economy with regulation and taxes and then blaming everything that goes wrong on the free market. Everything that goes right is because of the free market. Everything we achieve is despite all of the road blocks that government creates and the level to which they go to undermine success.
Turn on to Liberty
So the more young people who can listen to this podcast (younger people are more likely to listen to podcasts) the more knowledgeable voters we'll have to vote for good government. The higher this podcast is ranked, the more people will discover it. I have heard this story many times: first time listeners who have found me. Once I turn them on to liberty, once I appeal to them, I open their eyes. They then do their own research; they start to read. They start to tune out all the propaganda and start thinking for themselves. I can chan…
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Trump and Fed to Blame Each Other for Recession – Ep. 372
21 juli 2018 · 41 min
Presidential Tweets Express Anger at the Fed Lees meer
The catalyst today was more tweets from President Trump where he is expressing anger, not only at the Federal Reserve, and at the ECB and at the Bank of China, because he is accusing both Europe and China of being currency manipulators; taking advantage of us by weakening their currencies. He's saying that a weak currency gives you an advantage. It doesn't.
Strong Currency Provides Trade Advantage
When it comes to trade, it is a strong currency that gives you the advantage because trade is all about imports. How do you get more stuff for your own citizens, and the way you pay for that stuff is by exporting. But the goal is to export as little as possible and to import as much as possible. If you're a buyer, you always want to pay the least and get the most. So you pay for stuff when you export because you're using resources to produce stuff for other people. But you're not producing stuff for other people because you're charitable, you're trying to earn the money to buy stuff for yourselves that other people made.
Is Trump Firing Back?
Having a strong currency is a huge advantage because it means you can claim a greater portion of the global output. Because the dollar has been so over-valued thanks to the generosity or the stupidity of our trading partners, Americans enjoy greater consumption than what would otherwise be available to them if we were limited by our own collective production. So we actually have the advantage. But by calling out China and the ECB for deliberately weakening their currency, you would think that Trump may want to fire back.
Weakening the Dollar
Donald Trump doesn't control the Fed, but the Treasury Department can intervene in the foreign exchange markets. Maybe, if Donald Trump really believes that these other countries are deliberately weakening their currency and if he has no control over the Fed but he does have control over the U.S. Treasury, he can have the Secretary of the Treasu…
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Labor Laws Hurt Workers the Most – Ep. 371
17 juli 2018 · 48 min
Trump Driver is Suing the Trump Organization Lees meer
On thing I talked about on the Joe Rogan podcast was a story that broke the same day of my last podcast, which I thought was very interesting. It was about Donald Trump being sued by his former personal driver, who still works for the Trump organization, by the way, he's worked there for over 25 years until Trump became President and got a tax-payer provided driver, he had to pay his own driver. I think the guy was getting a $70K/year salary, which to me seems about right.
Diver Claims He is Due Overtime
The driver sued the Trump organization because he claims that he was due overtime, and he didn't get paid overtime. Now he's worked for the Trump organization for 25 years. He has known his pay all these years and never once complained and now after 25 years he wants to use the labor laws to retroactively force the Trump organization to give him a pay hike.
Terms and Conditions of Employment
First of all, he is not an hourly employee. It's not like he is punching a clock and the organization asks him to work overtime. According to the article I read, the driver needed to be on call for Trump something like 10-11 hours a day. Maybe 55 hours a week he was on call in case Trump needed him. That does not mean he was driving all that time; he just had to be accessible to Trump. He couldn't go on a vacation or leave town, but he could watch a movie, he could read a book, he could trade stocks on the internet, he could do whatever he wanted. He had plenty of free time between times he drove for Trump. He knew exactly what the deal was and he chose to work under these conditions.
What happens in America is that employees like to go back in time and re-write the deal more favorably to them. If this driver did not like the terms of his employment, he had two options:
* He could have gone to Donald Trump and said, "I'm working on call 10 hours a day - that's more than a normal 8-hour job, you're paying me $70K/year, If you w…
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Government Regulation Is Why Drugs Cost so Much – Ep. 370
10 juli 2018 · 46 min
Misguided Tweet About Pfizer Lees meer
Another misguided tweet that came out today from the President had to do with drugs:
Pfizer & others should be ashamed that they have raised drug prices for no reason. They are merely taking advantage of the poor & others unable to defend themselves, while at the same time giving bargain basement prices to other countries in Europe & elsewhere. We will respond!
So here's the President, threatening businesses for raising prices; for making a profit. If Obama were calling out big business like this, the Republicans would be all over him, or if Hillary Clinton were saying this:"You don't understand capitalism! This is an assault on private enterprise!"
Trump's Protectionism Tolerated by Republicans
But Trump says it and it's no big deal. Can you imagine if Hillary Clinton had launched these recent tariffs? Can you imagine the backlash by the Republicans? "This is terrible, the President doesn't understand capitalism; the President doesn't understand free trade; this is going to backfire; this is going to lower our standard of living; this is going to raise prices!" The Republicans would be all over Hillary Clinton. They would have been all over President Obama. Republicans have generally been known to be in favor of free trade. It's the Democrats who wanted some protectionism because they wanted to protect workers. They think free trade will lower wages, hurting the blue collar worker. So you would generally associate Democrats with protectionism. The Republicans wanted to be Free-Traders.
Get Rid of FDA Red Tape
Now, of course, since President Trump is advocating protectionism, the Republicans don't want to attack him because they are blindly loyal to the party. So now he's bashing Pfizer and other private companies for "gouging" the consumer, just raising prices for no reason. This is all misplaced. I agree that drug prices are too high; they should be a lot lower. It is not that Pfizer is rising prices for no reason. One of the r…
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Will the Trade War Prick America’s Bubble Economy? – Ep. 369
7 juli 2018 · 49 min
"Bring on the Trade War!" Lees meer
Today is Jobs Friday, but before I get to the jobs report, I want to talk a little bit about the escalation of the trade war, In fact, some stories I'm reading are that the trade war began today, or last night. A lot of the tariffs are finally being imposed. The market reacted positively; the Dow was up 100 points today. The NASDAQ was up 100 points as well, which is percentage-wise a much bigger increase - 1.34% move - so who cares about a trade war? "Bring it on! America is going to win the trade war because we've got the least to lose because we've got the biggest deficits.
Dollar Sold Off Despite Trade War and Jobs Number
The dollar, meanwhile, sold off today. The dollar index closed at 94, barely held the 94 handle. It traded below briefly, despite what many people consider a stronger Nonfarm Payroll report. So, the dollar went down despite the beginning of the trade war and despite the supposed strong jobs number. To me, the dollar topped out at 95; I expect us to crack below 94 next week, and if we break below 93, if we get into the 92's I am pretty sure the rally is over, technically speaking and we're heading for new lows relatively quickly.
Who is the Industrial Powerhouse?
Let me get back to the trade war that we are supposedly going to win. One of the most interesting things about it, is when you look at the goods each side is imposing tariffs on. When you look at that, you can see which country is the industrial powerhouse and which country is a third world country masquerading as an economic power. Here are the goods made in China that Trump wants to tax the American citizens on:
Aircraft tires
Scales
Nuclear reactors
Cranes
Boat motors
Bulldozers
Aircraft engines
Boring machines
Aircraft engine parts
Construction vehicles
Air & gas compressors
Oil & gas drilling platforms
Combine harvesters
Plows
Industrial heating equipment
Chicken Incubators
Dairy milkers
Plows
Livestock equipment
Machinery for pro…
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Dependence Day Is Nothing to Celebrate – Ep. 368
4 juli 2018 · 50 min
Market Closed Early for July 4th Holiday Lees meer
The U.S. stock market closed early today, ahead of tomorrow's Fourth of July holiday when the markets are of course closed and Americans are out celebrating Independence Day, the birth of the nation, July 4, 1776. I love the Fourth of July as a holiday; it is purely American.
Framers of the Constitution Risked it All
One of the problems I have with the Fourth of July is that it makes me feel both good and bad about what happened on July 4, 1776. I am honored to have been born in a nation that was conceived in liberty and I think about the sacrifices made by the people who signed their names beneath John Hancock's name to that document. These men risked it all to put their names on the Declaration of Independence, committing treason against the British government. If we had lost that war, the King would have killed our founding fathers, as traitors.
The American Experience is Unique and Privileged
So you think back on the accomplishments and the sacrifices that were made and the incredible republic that our founders created. I'm proud that, but at the same time, I'm sad that it has all been lost. We no longer have the nation that our founders created for us. We have lost all that it means to be an American. It used to be so special to be American, based on the type of nation that we were, and the type of individuals that Americans were; what it meant to be an American, how unique and privileged it was.
The Role of Government in America
And today, even though the American economy is regarded as at the top, a lot of that is a function of debt and it's all an illusion. The difference between an American and any European these days is not nearly as great as it was. If you have never read the Declaration of Independence, and I am sure most of you probably had at some point, you might want to take another look at it, and give the entire document a read. I am going to read just a part of the second paragraph, because this is …
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Sky High GDP Forecasts Coming down to Earth – Ep. 367
30 juni 2018 · 36 min
Dow Ending a Down Week on a Positive Note Lees meer
The Dow managed to finish a down week on a positive note; the Dow Jones was up about 55 points - 24,270-ish is where we closed. Although intra-day, we were up better than 250 points, so most fo the losses came toward the end of the day, as the Dow was not able to hold on to all those gains. It held on to some of the gains, but Russell 2000, not as lucky. That index ended up finishing a down week down on the day. Probably the difference is the oil stocks, which are really helping out the Dow, to a lesser extent maybe the S&P 500 and that also closed positive on the day, but just barely, and well off the intra-day highs.
I Predicted Oil Would Be Heading Toward $80/Barrel
While we're talking about crude oil, we were up again today, in fact, we haven't even finished trading as I'm recording this, but as I am looking at it, it is at 74.40, up .$.95 - right near the high of the day. I think so far that was $74.46, so, almost 74.50. Oil is just a powerhouse. For those of you who say, "Hey Peter Schiff, you haven't gotten anything right since 2008!", I beg to differ. I've gotten some things right; I've gotten some things wrong, but one of the things I nailed this year is the oil market. I was very bullish on oil early in the year. I was saying that oil prices were headed up to $80-$100/barrel at the beginning of the year. When the year started, we were barely above $60, so $80 still looked like it was far away, but I was pretty sure we were going there. And, obviously, we're not there yet, but the year is only half over, and we're a lot closer to $80 than half way. I don't think we're going to stop at $80. I think it will be somewhere between $80 and $100/barrel.
What is Driving Crude Oil Right Now?
The question is, what is driving crude oil right now, because the dollar is rising. Today, it did not rise. Today the dollar index got smoked. Some of that had to do with political news announced last night in the Eurozone regardin…
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Socialists Take N.Y.C. Is the U.S.A. Next? – Ep. 366
28 juni 2018 · 42 min
Election Results in N.Y.C. Indicate Political Backlash Lees meer
Trump has already said that he's "Made America Great Again", so whatever problems he inherited, he's already claimed to have solved, which means any problems that arise now are brand new, under Trump's watch, and he and the Republicans are going to take the blame. An early warning sign of just how big a disaster this can be arrived yesterday in a N.Y.C. Congressional primary. You had a 10-term incumbent Democrat - the guy's been in Congress for 20 years. These guys are impossible to get rid of - trying to get rid of them is like trying to get rid of herpes. Joseph Crowley had been unopposed for 14 years. 28-year old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is going to be, if she wins, will be the youngest woman ever elected to the House of Representatives. She is a former bartender with no real political experience other than being a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. They believe in the abolition of capitalism in favor of an economy run by either the workers or the government.
Oil Prices Prop up DJIA, but not Broader Markets
Even the surge in oil stocks was not enough to keep the U.S. stock market in the black today. The Dow Jones finished in the red by 165 points. That is a drop of .68 percent, but the broader markets which don't have the exposure to the energy sector faired much worse. You had the composite down 116 points - 1.5% - and the Russell 2000 down almost 1.7%. Oil prices had a huge day today. They closed off the highs, but still up $1.80. $72.33 per barrel for the price of oil. We did get as high as $73.06 on West Texas earlier today, so this is a new high for the year. Remember, this is what helped the market avoid an 8-day losing streak when we got that 9th day rally, thanks to oil stocks; and I said at that time that I didn't think that was good news for the markets because higher oil prices may be good for companies, but they're not good for the overall economy. They're even higher now and it w…
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Most Banks Would Fail Stagflation Stress Test – Ep. 365
23 juni 2018 · 51 min
Stagflation Lees meer
Nobody realized just how bad the economy is, but they're about to find out. All of the economic data that came out this week points to stagflation, if you look at the data. Look at the Philly Fed - dropped down to 19. It is the biggest drop in 4 years; the lowest since the election. Look at the manufacturing PMI - those numbers came out yesterday - dropped to a 7-month low, the lowest since November 2017. If you look at the actual numbers - new orders fell sharply but input cost rose to their highest since September 2013. So you have rising input costs, yo have falling orders; to me this is all stagflation.
The Fed's Stress Test was too Easy
As I pointed out, even Alan Greenspan, not too long ago on CNBC talking about stagflation. He can see it. But you know who can't see stagflation? anyone at the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve announced the results of their stress tests, and surprise, surprise! Everybody passed. So the Federal Reserve designed tests to measure the banks that they regulate would perform under adverse economic scenarios. First of all, if a teacher gives a test, and everybody gets an A, then the test was too easy. Clearly the Federal Reserve designed this test so that everybody would pass, which of course, is why the test means nothing. Obviously they don't want to announce that the banking system is not sound, so they want to run these bogus stress tests to create a false sense of confidence in the banking system.
Look at the Fed's Assumptions
I want to actually look at the stress test. You really can't tell anything unless you look at the assumptions. What type of stress is the Federal Reserve assuming the economy might encounter? First of all, you have the most likely scenario they assume - their base case. Their base case scenario, which is their forecast is that everything is great. The economy continues to grow 2 - 2.5%/year - a little bit more this year but then it slows down. Inflation stays right at 2%, interest rates…
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The Force Will Not Be with Us – Ep. 364
20 juni 2018 · 39 min
Upping the Ante Lees meer
The shot heard around the world in the ever-escalating trade war was fired last night by Donald Trump, threatening to impose another $200 billion of tariffs on American consumers wishing to buy Chinese goods. This followed the $50 billion in tariffs. And, remember, when Trump announced the first $50 billion tax on Chinese goods, he threatened that if China retaliated by taxing its own citizens, that Trump would up the ante with even more taxes on American citizens, although he did not use those terms. He's acting as if the guns are pointed in the other direction. But, the Chinese, of course, not to lose face, immediately went tit for tat with Trump and now Trump had no choice but to follow through with $200 billion more in taxes. Now, I guess the ball is in China's court. We'll see where they take it.
Dow Closed Down for Sixth Consecutive Day
The markets obviously didn't take it very well. They sold off. In fact, the decline in the U.S., as seems to be typical, was much more muted than the reaction was around the world. The Dow was down, it closed down for the 6th consecutive day. This was the longest losing streak for the Dow since March of 2017; down 287. The lows were down about 415-430 or so, but not that big a decline. And the Russell 2000 was up again. Another all time high. I think on the 6 days that the Dow has been down, the Russell 2000 has only been down 2 of those days. So it keeps going up, and this shows you that traders have convinced themselves that America is going to win the trade war - or at least, take the fewest casualties. Because the reason that the Russell 2000 is doing better than the Dow or the S&P is that you don't have the multi-nationals.
Trump: Greatest Economy in the History of the World
The theory is that the domestic economy can easily weather the trade war. That it is no big deal, that trade is a small part of the U.S. economy, and so we have nothing to worry about! But if you are worried, well maybe worry abou…
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Dovish ECB Roils Markets – Ep. 363
16 juni 2018 · 37 min
ECB Announces Dovish Tightening Lees meer
The big market-moving central bank announcement this week was not the Fed. They came out with their so-called "hawkish hike", but yesterday, the ECB came out and they were supposed to announce the end of their Quantitative Easing program, their own version of the taper, which they did. But they surprised the market by indicating that they would not raise rates above zero, where they are stuck, until the summer of 2019. The markets had not expected such a delay in rate hikes, so it was a dovish tightening announced by the ECB.
The ECB Effectively Eased
When the Fed raised rates, the reaction was pretty much what I expected. The dollar did not strengthen. Gold did not go down. All of that had been priced into the market. What caused the dollar to rally and gold to sell off was the ECB and their unexpected ease, which put a bid into the dollar. We got a huge rise in the dollar yesterday. We got a 2 percent or so drop in the value of the euro against the dollar. And the weakness in the euro, along with the strength in the dollar caused a lot of the emerging market currencies to sell off, so it was a huge dollar rally, not because the Fed hiked, but because the ECB effectively eased.
Initially, yesterday, gold jumped 2% in terms of the euro. In fact it jumped up the the high end of the range that had been trading against the euro and it was very close to a breakout against the euro. It was only up a couple of bucks against the dollar, so all of the rise was in terms of euros, and of course, other currencies also fell against the dollar.
Unexpected ECB Move Caused Gold Sell-off
This morning, the traders came out huge. When we couldn't get above that key level in terms of the euro, there was massive selling of gold this morning right out of the gate, and gold finally dropped about $20. Remember on Wednesday I talked about the fact that gold had been in a $12 range all month, and I knew that that wasn't going to persist. Gold was going…
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Fed’s Inflation Victory Is a Loss for Consumers – Ep. 362
14 juni 2018 · 51 min
Fed Raises Rates for the 7th Time Lees meer
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates today. I think this is the 7th rate hike. Six of these rate hikes have now taken place since Donald Trump was elected; five of them since he was inaugurated. The official rate now is 1.75% to 2%. The Federal Reserve targets the midpoint of that range. But the Fed has been tightening a lot longer than those 7 rate hikes, because, remember, before they hiked rates, they talked about it and they were tapering. And the tapering was a De Facto tightening, because interest rates were effectively negative while the fed was doing QE. So, as it was tapering those purchases, it was reducing how much rates were actually negative, and that was, in fact tightening.
Press Conference After Every Meeting?
So the Fed has been tightening for a lot longer than the markets believe, which is why the recession is probably going to come a lot sooner and be a lot deeper than what anyone believes. There were rumors that came out earlier in the week that Powell thinks there should be a press conference after every single meeting. Right now, they just do it quarterly, and when they initially announced that, the reaction in the markets was, "Oh, maybe that means more rate hikes." because every time the Fed hikes rates, they have a press conference. So the thinking was, if they have more press conferences, they would have more rate hikes.
Powell's Bullish Comments Contrarian Indicator
I don't think it means that at all, in fact, there is no rule that says that the Fed needs a press conference to hike rates. They can hike rates at any meeting; in fact, they don't even need a meeting! They can hike rates between meetings. They just haven't been doing it, but there's nothing that says they can't. So, I don't think having more press conferences means anything, but people are always looking for an excuse to do something, so that might have been an excuse. But if you listen to what Powell said at this press conference, …
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Tariffs Did Not Cause U.S.Trade Deficits – Ep. 361
12 juni 2018 · 47 min
Market Movers: Singapore Summit Lees meer
We've got a lot of potentially market-moving events going on this week; we've got the Summit which I think is getting underway this evening with North Korea's President Kim Jong Un and President Trump meeting in Singapore.
No Market Move Expected on Rate Hike
We've got the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting beginning tomorrow, it's a 2-day meeting ending on Wednesday. The odds of a rate hike are 100%! So in all probability there will be a rate hike. Eventually the Fed is going to reverse course and that will come as a surprise; odds are the surprise won't happen on Wednesday. Right now we are at one and a half to one and three quarters, so the next hike will be one and three quarters to two. I think what might surprise the markets, is if the Fed dials back expectations for later hikes. A lot of people are still looking for 2 more hikes this year in addition to the one we will get on Wednesday. They may indicate that they are closer to the end of their rate-hiking cycle. Maybe they will dial back their anticipated "Quantitative Tightening". I don't think the Fed is going to deliver much at all in the way of Quantitative Tightening but they may indicate to the markets that they're not going to do as much as what the the markets believe. But in any event, given a 100% probability of a hike this time, the hike itself will not move markets at all.
What If They Don't Hike?
If the Fed does not hike, that would provide a big boost to gold and a big drop in the dollar. If they do not hike, that would be an indication that there may not be as many future hikes. But, again, if you look at how gold has traded in the past, if you look at how gold has traded in this cycle, it has generally been bullish for gold, if not the very day, then within the next few days.
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Time to Fade the Short EM Trade – Ep. 360
9 juni 2018 · 38 min
Focusing on Emerging Markets Lees meer
I'm going to spend most of today's podcast talking about what is going on in the emerging markets, in the currency market and in the stock markets; what the speculators are doing, why they are doing it and why I think they are wrong and why I think it creates an excellent opportunity for investors to fade this trade and prepare for the ultimate reversal of these moves.
Freedom Fest in Las Vegas
But before I get into that, I want to talk about a few other topics of interest that happened after my last podcast. I also want to talk about Freedom Fest in July. I am going to Freedom Fest again, as I do every year in July. Not the greatest time of the year in Las Vegas - not that there's really a bad time to be in Las Vegas, you're going to have fun in Las Vegas whenever you go - but it is quite hot in July. Of course I spend almost all my time indoors, so the heat really does not affect me. And when I do go out, it is at night, and it is not so hot. The event is July 12-14 and if you have not already registered you can do it now. It will be at the Paris Hotel & Casino; I will be there with my entire family - my wife and 3 kids. We'll be at our booth, you can come by and have a chance to meet my wife and kids and say hello.
Presentation on Tax Incentives of Working and Moving to Puerto Rico
I am going to be participating in several events; I am going to be doing a talk on Puerto Rico and the tax incentives of working from and moving to Puerto Rico. Most of you should know by now, I am Puerto Rican. Puerto Rico is my main residence; I summer in Connecticut, but I am a resident of Puerto Rico. Euro Pacific Asset Management and Euro Pacific Bank are both based in Puerto Rico.
Bitcoin Debate Moderated by Naomi Brockwell
Also I am going to be doing a Bitcoin debate against Jeffrey Tucker and Gary Smith - is it real, or is it Tulipmania? All of you realize what side I am on. The debate will be moderated by Naomi Brockwell, who is known as "T…
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Special Privileges for Some Means Freedom for None – Ep. 359
6 juni 2018 · 50 min
Current Events Lees meer
Not much has been going on in the economy or the financial markets the last couple of days. Its been pretty quiet, so I'm going to take an opportunity to record a podcast more on current events and politics, so if you're not interested in those topics, then maybe just wait for my next podcast, although, when I did the Peter Schiff Radio Show 5 days a week, there were people who complained when I did not talk about the markets, or even the economy. But I always enjoyed talking more about politics and current events, and I think the feedback I got was more engaging, so the show was more interesting.
Supreme Court Wedding Cake Case
So, I am going to talk about a couple of topics today; one has to do about that ruling that came out of the Supreme Court yesterday on the baker in Colorado who had refused to bake a cake for a gay wedding. I know I have talked about this topic in the past; it is not the first time it has come up, but it has come up again in the wake of this ruling so I want to revisit that topic.
No More Swimsuit Competition for Miss America
Before I get to that topic, I would like to address a lighter topic, but nonetheless just as interesting. The Miss America Pageant is no longer going to consider beauty as the criteria for the pageant. In other words, it is a beauty pageant, but beauty doesn't count. It's not outer beauty, it's just going to be, I guess inner beauty. They are going to get rid of the swimsuit competition, they are going to get rid of the evening gown competition and they will select a winner based on other characteristics. I'm really not sure what. I know they've got the talent competition; no one really paid too much attention to talent. Some of the women actually had some talent. Usually the most humorous part of the Miss America Pageant was the Q&A where there were often political questions asked and the contestants would try to give the most politically correct answer they could come up with.
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Jobs Report Feeds Delusional Economic Narrative – Ep. 358
2 juni 2018 · 39 min
Jobs Friday Lees meer
Today is the first day of June and it's also jobs Friday. But before we get to the always highly-anticipated nonfarm payroll number, I want to talk about some of the economic data that came out yesterday, on Thursday.
Personal Income and Spending
I think the most significant release was the Personal Income and Spending number for the month of April. The spending numbers were so strong that it prompted the Atlanta Fed to adjust its estimate for Q2 GDP all the way up to 4.6% and I think they notched it up another tenth today to 4.7%, so this is the highest estimate they've had since they had that 5.4% estimate for Q1. Of course we now know that we got 2.2%, so they were much too optimistic on Q1 and my gut is they're equally overly optimistic on Q2.
Spending Went Up as Income Went Down
Let's talk about this Personal Income and Spending data. The surprise was not on the income, but on the spending. In fact, the revisions, when they went back to March. the original report was for a .3% gain in income and a .4% gain in spending. They ended up revising the income number down, so income rose only by .2%, but they revised spending up. Spending went up by .5%. What does that mean? That means savings went down quite a bit, because, where did the money come from to finance the extra spending? It didn't come from income, so it came from savings, or it came from debt. Either people depleted their existing savings, or they went deeper into debt by putting their purchases on the credit card.
Spending Money Twice as Fast as They Are Earning It
But then, for the month of April, we got a .3% increase in income, which was anticipated, but spending, instead of rising by .4%, rose by .6%. So consumers are spending money twice as fast as they are earning it for the month of April: .6 up on spending, .3 up on earnings . So, again, what does this tell you? People are tapping into an already shallow savings pool or they are running up m0re credit card debt to buy stuff.
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Ep. 357: Populism a Bigger Problem in the U.S. Than Italy
31 mei 2018 · 45 min
Economy Slowing Down Lees meer
We got quite a bit of economic data that was released today, pretty much all of it confirming what everybody seems to be denying, and that is that the U.S. economy is, in fact, slowing down, at least the way we like to measure it. We will get more data later in the week, of course we get the big number, the nonfarm payroll number, on Friday. We always get that number the first Friday of the month; this Friday is June 1, so we are going to get the May jobs number.
Last Month's ADP Jobs Number Revised Down
We got the ADP number that came out this morning. It was weaker than expected. In fact, there was a significant downward revision to the prior month, which was originally reported at 204,000 jobs. That was revised down to 163,000 jobs, so about a 20% reduction. This month, the consensus was 187,000 and we got 178,000; of course, that number will also be subject to revision next month. But, to me, that shows that we can potentially get a weaker number on Friday as well.
Decline in Refinances at an 18-Year Low
Earlier this morning, we got some data on mortgage re-fi's, which we get every week. We get the numbers on new mortgages and mortgage re-fi's. Everything is down. This makes sense, because mortgage rates are going up. In particular, the decline in refinances is to an 18-year low in mortgage re-fi's. One of the reasons that the inability to refinance your mortgage is going to become a problem is that re-fi's have been providing a lifeline to consumers to enable them to continue to spend.
Refinances Available as Property Values Rise
When you refinance your mortgage, you're generally doing it to reduce your monthly payment because you are able to qualify for a lower monthly payment. Some people who perhaps could not qualify a couple of years ago because they did not have enough home equity, but as real estate prices have risen that has enabled people who have been unable to refinance in the past to re-fi now. Especially for those who ar…
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Ep. 356: Oil, Bonds, Currencies, Tariffs & Guns
26 mei 2018 · 39 min
Biggest Move in Crude Oil Lees meer
Not much action today in the stock markets on this Friday before a 3-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. The action was really in the oil markets, the bond markets and the foreign exchange markets. The biggest move happening in crude oil. Crude was down just over $3/barrel today; one of the biggest declines I've seen in some time. We're back down to $67.50. Earlier in the week, we almost hit $73/barrel for crude, and here we are now at $67.50 - a pretty big drop today. We were down yesterday, also.
Speculation in the Market
The rumors today were that Russia and Saudi Arabia may be upping their production and it was that news that sent the market falling. But remember, markets don't move in a straight line. You get a lot of speculators who get into the market and generally they're not there for the long run; they're there to catch a trend, and they're there to ride it as long as they can. They tend to put stop orders in beneath the market. In the case of oil, if you're long, you'll have a sell stop and many of those stops likely got triggered today.
Technical Noise
You probably had some people trying to minimize their exposure. Either they limited their loss to the extent that they got in recently and they got stopped out with a loss or maybe they've been long for a while and they've been moving their stops higher to protect their profits and now they got stopped out of the trade. But I think this is more technical noise. I don't think this uptrend in the price of oil has changed based on this pullback from $73 now to $67.50. Maybe we've got a little more downside, but if you look at the chart, you can barely see the decline. The more recent uptrend that goes back to July - you look at this uptrend and it is holding perfectly. We're not even down to the line yet. We still have a little bit to fall before we hit that line.
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FOMC Is Far More Dovish Than the Minutes Imply – Ep. 355
24 mei 2018 · 38 min
Markets Rallied on Fed Minutes Interpreted as Dovish Lees meer
Earlier today we got the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes and before the minutes came out (they come out at 2pm Eastern Time). Prior to the release, all the stock markets were down; the Dow was down maybe about 150 points or so, and when the minutes came out, we got a rally, and the Dow closed up about 50 points. So, a 200-point rally on the minutes, and the reason the minutes acted as a catalyst for the rally is that they were interpreted to be a bit more dovish than expected.
The Fed's Symmetrical Inflation Target
To me, the minutes were as expected; I had already been talking about the Fed's view that inflation can go above 2%. That they were willing to allow for some kind of "symmetrical" inflation. The symmetry in this case meaning, we were below 2% for a long time and so now we can be above 2%. I guess for some reason the markets focused in on that.
Specifically, the minutes read that
"A temporary period of inflation modestly above 2 percent would be consistent with the Committee's symmetric inflation objective and could be helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations at a level consistent with that objective."
What does "Modest" Mean?
Now, I don't know why allowing inflation to be higher than 2% is somehow helpful toward achieving their 2% objective. To me, It would be more helpful if they just kept it at 2%, if indeed that was their real objective. But, even if you look at the language that they use, they don't really define what symmetrical could mean. They talk about inflation being "modestly" above 2%: What is "modestly"? Is is 2.1%? What about 2.5%? Is .5% "modest"? They don't really define what "modest" is. I have a feeling, again, that there's never going to be a definition, that it is going to be an ever-moving goal post. Even 3% could be "modest". "Hey, it's only 1%, right that's "modest", right?
Fed Is Impotent When It Comes to Inflation
But on a perc…
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Trade War Ends Before It Begins – Ep. 354
22 mei 2018 · 36 min
Solid Gains Today in the Major Stock Market Averages Lees meer
We had solid gains today in the major stock market averages; the DJIA putting in the largest percentage gain, just over 1.2% or 298 points. I think at the highs, the Dow was up 370 and change, so a strong day, S&P, NASDAQ also up not quite as much calculated as percentages. The Russell 2000 was not up as much as the other averages but it is at a record high again today. I think it's the Russell 2000 that ultimately could make the biggest percentage drop once stock market traders start to figure out what's actually going to happen.
A Lot of Saber Rattling and Not a Lot of Fencing
But in the meantime, today, they were celebrating the cease fire in the trade war. Although, I don't think I should call it a cease fire because nobody actually fired a shot. It has been more of a war of words than a real conventional battle, I mean there was basically a lot of saber rattling and not a lot of fencing. But I think what happened today is that we callee a truce. Both sides sheathed their sabers and agreed that there is not going to be a war.
The Markets Have Not Adequately Priced in the Cost of a Trade War
And I think the markets were relieved, and so we got a relief rally based on that good news. Although I don't think the markets sufficiently priced in the cost of a hot trade war. I know Donald Trump said, "Oh, trade wars are easy to win." Believe me, if they were easy to win, we would have waged one. They're not easy to win. I don't think the markets really discounted how bad it would have been had the cold war turned hot.
Peace Dividend
Nonetheless, the fact that it wasn't going to happen - I think most people would agree that a trade war would be bad, and if now there is going to be trade peace, well there is a peace dividend and so we got that today.
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Bond Breakdown Gathers Momentum – Ep. 353
16 mei 2018 · 41 min
Las Vegas to Vancouver to Las Vegas Lees meer
I'm recording today's podcast from my hotel room in Vancouver, Canada. I'm up here for a couple of days at the 2018 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and actually I left Las Vegas to come here; I am at the Las Vegas Money Show, I was there yesterday and I will be back again tomorrow for another talk, and on Thursday I am flying to Puerto Rico for another conference before heading back to Weston, Connecticut for the summer.
Debating Bonds with Gary Shilling
I was on a panel yesterday in Las Vegas at the Money Show and it was moderated by Mark Skousen, and one of the guys on the panel with me was Gary Shilling. And I've been arguing with Gary Shilling for a long time; there are plenty of YouTube videos of Shilling and myself over the years, arguing. He is basically a perma-bull when it comes to U.S. Treasuries. He is always bearish on the stock market and he's always bullish on the bond market. For a while, he was right to be bullish on the bond market, because we had a huge bull market in bonds. But the bull market appears to be over, yet Gary Shilling is as bullish as I have ever seen him on the U.S. bond market. He is also bullish on the dollar; I guess if you are always bullish on the bond market you are also bullish in the dollar because bonds are dollar I.O.U.'s.
Shilling: China Would Never Sell U.S. Bonds
Now I think this is one of the times when Gary Shilling is dead wrong. One if the points that he made that I challenged him on was when he started talking about China. He said the Chinese would never sell their U.S. Treasuries because if they sold them, the prices would collapse, and they would be destroying their own portfolio; therefore they are not going to sell because they do not want to destroy the value of the assets they might want to sell.
China Can Just Let Their T-Bills Mature
I pointed out to Gary that the Chinese don't have to sell any Treasuries to get out of them. They simply have to let them ma…
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Currency Traders Have It Backwards Ep. 352
9 mei 2018 · 31 min
[button link="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mANOqcnLtqA" color="lightgray" size="medium" stretch="" type="" shape="" target="_self" title="" gradient_colors="|" gradient_hover_colors="|" accent_color="" accent_hover_color="" bevel_color="" border_width="1px" icon="" icon_divider="yes" icon_position="left" modal="" animation_type="0" animation_direction="down" animation_speed="0.1" animation_offset="" alignment="left" class="" id=""]Mr. Schiff Goes to Washington[/button] Lees meer
[button link="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mANOqcnLtqA" color="lightgray" size="medium" stretch="" type="" shape="" target="_self" title="" gradient_colors="|" gradient_hover_colors="|" accent_color="" accent_hover_color="" bevel_color="" border_width="1px" icon="" icon_divider="yes" icon_position="left" modal="" animation_type="0" animation_direction="down" animation_speed="0.1" animation_offset="" alignment="right" class="" id=""]Mr. Schiff Returns to Washington[/button]
The Bear Market Rally
The big story continues to be the bear market rally that has been going on in the U.S. dollar. The dollar index closed above 93. The low this year was just above 88, so we've risen above 5% so far in the U.S. dollar index. Year to date we're up on the dollar a little over 1%. We're still down about 6% from where the dollar ended 2016, but we've had this considerable rally in a relatively short period of time. To me, it has the makings of a bear market rally, a short-covering rally. There hasn't been any good economic news that would explain the strength of the dollar. In fact, I talked about Fed comments from last week which to me, are quite dovish when you have the Federal Reserve indicating a tolerance toward inflation above 2% talking about "symmetrical inflation" rather than keeping it below 2%, So to me, those are statements that would normally be negative for the dollar.
Technical Rally for Short-Covering
The economic data, the jobs numbers that came out last week - much weaker than expected, …
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Consumers Won’t Be Comfortable with Higher Inflation – Ep. 351
5 mei 2018 · 35 min
Fed is Willing to Tolerate Higher Inflation Lees meer
Today is the first Friday in May and that means we got the April Jobs Report released today, and before I actually get into the details of the jobs report, I want to talk about what happened with the Fed this week. I think that is the most significant news of the week. The Fed's statement on Wednesday and the comments from today are the real reasons we had the 300+ point rally in the Dow today, that's why we had the 400+point turnaround in the Dow on Thursday. It's all about the Fed and its willingness to tolerate higher inflation.
Fed Inserted the word "Symmetrical"
So we got the FOMC announcement on Wednesday after their 2-day meeting, and as expected, they left interest rates unchanged. The most significant part of the statement that accompanied the Fed's decision not to raise rates was inserting the word, "symmetrical" in their description of inflation. Up until Wednesday, the Fed was always worried that we didn't have enough inflation. The inflation rate was too low, and their goal was to get it up to their 2% level.
We Can Go Above 2% to the Same Extent We Were Below 2%
Now the Fed is saying that they are at 2% and they expect the rate to actually go above 2%, and they're OK with it. What they mean by symmetrical is that inflation was below 2%, at least the way they measure it. It's probably always been well above it, but let's just look at the government statistics. Based on the government statistics we had inflation of 1.4, 1.5, 1.6; it was always below 2. So now what they're saying is we can have some symmetry on the upside, meaning, all right, we can have 2.5, because 2.5 and 1.5. the average is 2.
The Fed is Actually Lifting Their Inflation Target
So what the Fed is really saying is their goal is not to have 2% inflation, their goal is to have inflation that averages 2%. So if we've had inflation of under 2% for all these years, we can have inflation of over2% by the same proportion for the same number o…
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Sell in May and Go Away – Ep. 350
2 mei 2018 · 32 min
Market Tends to Produce Better Returns in the First 4 Months of the Year Lees meer
There is an old Wall Street adage: "Sell in May and Go Away". The reason for that saying is that seasonally, the market tends to produce better returns in the first 4 months of the year, January through April, and then, historically, beginning in May and throughout the summer, the market can generally go down, and I think the time to buy back in is typically September/October. There are a lot of big down days, down months, crashes, so get out of the market in May, go away and then come back later in the year and buy back what you sold.
Selling Started Right out of the Gate
Today was May 1 and it looked like a lot of people were not going to wait to sell; they were selling right on the open. The Dow was down all day. At the worst, it was down better than 300 points but it pared its losses significantly, down just 64. But the NASDAQ, which was never actually down that much (when the Dow was down 300 the NASDAQ was down only about 25) the NASDAQ ended up positive 64. The S&P was up just under 7 points.
Facebook Getting into the Dating Business
Stocks were under pressure all day. I think the turnaround in Facebook - Facebook ended up a couple of percent. Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to try to clamp down - I think he said he would have 20,000 people working in compliance. They also announced that they are going into the dating business. I'm surprised it has taken Facebook so long to get into that space. It seems such an obvious fit. They already have everybody's profile. I think some of the other online sites, Match Group which owns Plenty of Fish are falling. It's like Amazon stepping into your market.
Heading toward 20,000
The market turned around and maybe that news lifted the NASDAQ, but to me, it was a weak day, the market was generally under pressure. The Dow did manage to hold onto the 20,000 mark. We were well below it - we were close to 23800. It is really going to get interestin…
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Guaranteed Jobs Guarantees Disaster – Ep. 349
28 april 2018 · 34 min
Markets Down But Not by as Much as Expected Lees meer
All the major U.S. stock markets were down on the week, but not by as much as I thought. We got that big drop on Monday, where we got the very bad reaction to even better than expected earnings. Plus, with interest rates rising, I thought we would have had more selling, but we didn't we actually rallied back most of the week from the big Monday decline, not enough to recover all of the losses, but the total losses on the week were not that bad. The Dow was down today, actually, by about 11 points. The NASDAQ eked out a small gain as did the S&P 500.
Yield on the 10-Year Highest Since Financial Crisis
Interest rates were moving up. In fact, the yield on the 10-year on Wednesday hit 3.035%. This is the highest it has been since before the Financial Crisis and I think one of the reasons that the stock market recovered a bit this week was because investors breathed a sigh of relief that the yield didn't stay above 3%. We closed above 3% on that Monday, I think it was 3.024%, but then we dropped on Thursday and dropped again on Friday; we went out at 2.957%, and that's only a slight increase from the 2.951% that yields closed at the prior week.
Existing Rates High Enough for Significant Damage
I think the markets are lulling in a false sense of security if they think that it's just one and done. "We finally took out 3%, maybe we cleared out some stops, and that's it. Yields have peaked, so there's nothing to worry about." As I said on my last podcast, even if this is the peak, I think it is already high enough to do significant damage to the economy, to the financial markets, to U.S. government finances. But - it's not the peak.
Rising Bond Yields Are Not Bullish for the Dollar
Rates have barely begun to rise and I think they are going a lot higher. Higher rates did continue to support the dollar. The dollar actually had a strong week; the dollar index closed up just over 1% on the week. It was down slightly today, so w…
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Good Earnings Can’t Support an Over-Priced Stock Market – Ep. 348
25 april 2018 · 32 min
The Correction is Over and the Bear Market is Resuming Lees meer
As I have been speaking about in my last couple of podcasts, it looks like the period of relative calm in the markets is over and the next leg down has begun. So the correction is also over - not the downward move - that is not the correction - this is the bear market. The upward move was the correction. It was the first correction in this young bear market. Technically it is not a bear market yet because we're not down 20% but that is only a matter of time. So I think the correction is over and the bear market is resuming, the primary trend being down.
Dow Transports Big Losers
In fact, the U.S. stock market was down for its fifth consecutive day, although today was the biggest decline. The Dow ended down 424 points. We managed to close just above 24,000 at 24,024. But we were well below. At the lows of the day we were down about 600 points. Percentage wise we were down 1.74%. The NASDAQ, about the same, down 1.7%. At the lows it was down close to 150 points on the NASDAQ. Percentage wise, the Dow transports were the big losers, down 221 points - 2.08%.
Earnings Don't Matter
Now, one of the things that investors have been counting on to support stock prices and, in fact, drive them higher, were earnings. Everybody's been saying, "Earnings are going to be higher!" Now what have I been saying on my podcasts, over the last several months? I've been saying that it doesn't matter, because all these great earnings, if they materialize, are already baked into the cake. They are already discounted into the price of the stocks. So in other words, they don't matter. It's "buy the rumor, sell the fact".
Double Whammy of Faster Growth and Lower Taxes
If everybody knows that earnings are going to be good, well, they've priced in those expectations into the market. Why do you think the market has gone up so much since Trump was elected President? It was on the anticipation of all these earnings that were going to com…
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The Eye of the Hurricane – Ep. 347
21 april 2018 · 27 min
Another Friday Down Day Lees meer
It looks like the period of calm may be coming to an end and the storm may be looming just over the horizon. The Dow Jones finished down today, just over 200 points off the day's low. I think I saw us down about 280. This was the 4th consecutive Friday where the markets were lower - there was a holiday in there (Good Friday) - it has been 5 Fridays. This seems to be a trend. The markets still managed to eke out a gain on the week. All 3 of the major indexes managed gains despite the losses on Friday.
Investors Should Really Worry about the Bond Market
What should really be worrying investors are the losses this week in the bond market. Yields continue to ratchet up almost every day, and in fact we closed at the high point all across the curve, from the 2-year all the way up to the 30-year. The 1--year yield, which is the one everybody seems to be talking about closed at 2.96%. So this is a new high for the year. You've got to go back to pre-2008 financial crisis to get a yield up that high. But the yield is still very very low.
Who Believes that 3% Yields are Here to Stay?
The amazing thing is to look at the 30-year. The 30-year is 3.15. It's actually just under 20 basis points - 19 basis points is all you get for taking 20 additional years of interest rate and inflation risk. Think about that! Think about how crazy that is. Interest rates right now on the 10-year are just under 3%; on the 30-year they are slightly above 3%. Why would anybody believe that 3% yields are here to stay?
Low Rates Are an Aberration
Obviously, if you go back to the post-war period and look at what rates have averaged on the 10-year, these low rates are an aberration. They've been going on now, for a while, but they can't go on forever, Yet the market thinks it's going to go on for another 30 years. If you think about a 30-year bond, that's like buying a 10-year bond today, holding it for 10 years, letting it mature, then buying another 10-year bond, holding…
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Calm Before the Storm – Ep. 346
17 april 2018 · 29 min
Podcast Break: Investor Summit at Sea Lees meer
I apologize to everybody who has been waiting patiently for my next podcast. Las week I went the entire week without doing a podcast, which is unusual. If you are a regular listener to this podcast you'll know that I was on a cruise ship all last week; I was on the Real Estate Guys' cruise. The internet connections on a ship are very slow; particularly the upload speeds - plus I was very busy, so I really decided to take a week off from podcasting.
Markets Were Overall Quiet
You know, there really wasn't that much that happened last week. the markets were overall quiet, although the U.S stock market rallied, gold didn't do much, the dollar didn't do much; no real earth-shattering news, so I didn't see any reason why I couldn't wait until I was back onshore, which is what I'm doing, and in fact, I was so busy today that it is very late on a Monday night and I'm just trying to get this podcast recorded today.
FOMC Minutes Released
First of all, I'll talk about some if the stuff that happened last week. We did get the release of the FOMC minutes, in fact, after the minutes came out we had a pretty big drop in the price of gold. Gold did manage to get all the way up to about 1365 during the week before selling off and I think the Fed minutes were a catalyst to get gold to sell off. Of course, it really can't get much below 1330; there is a lot of buying that comes in down there.
Fed Half Right
The read on the minutes was that they were hawkish in that the Fed was signaling that the economy is going to keep strengthening and inflation is going to keep rising. Well, at least they're half right. The economy isn't going to keep strengthening, but inflation will keep rising,
PPI Close to a Breakout
In fact, they're not even half right: They're right that inflation is going to go up, but it is going to go up by a lot more than they think, so even the part they got right they really got wrong. We did get some inflation numbers - …
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Trump Warns Investors to Prepare for Pain – Ep. 345
7 april 2018 · 31 min
Wednesday Reversal Day Lees meer
On my Wednesday podcast, I talked about Wednesday reversal day, where we gapped way down and then rallied and closed up. It was a strong outside reversal day. I thought this could be the beginning of a correction. The correction meaning a rise in a bear market. Everybody thinks we're in a correction now of a bull market, but I think the bull market is over and a rise is the correction.
Three Consecutive Up Days
So I thought maybe we'll get one based on that reversal day, and we did. For one day. The market was up on Thursday; I think the Dow was up better than 200 points, so we did have some follow through to Tuesday and Wednesday's gains. We had 3 consecutive up days. Remember we had a big down day on Monday, but then we had those 3 up days.
End of Bear Market Correction
Well the whole correction came to an end today. The Dow at one point again was down better than 700 points; we didn't close that badly - we were down 572 points. Still, below 24,000; 23,932. This is only the second close below 24,000 this year, on a weekly basis. The last time was 2 weeks ago. The NASDAQ was down 161 points back below 7000 - 6915.
Dangerous Territory in Dow Transports
Dow Transports were also down big. They were down 307 points, just barely avoiding the Dow Theory sell signal. So we're not quite there. We can easily be there on Monday. If we have another down day on Monday, it seems that we're going to have a sell signal for the Dow Theory.
Pattern Developing
That seems to be the pattern: big down day Friday followed by a big down day Monday. Believe me the technicals on this market look awful. So there is certainly another chance that we have another big sell off on Monday. This entire bear market so far, we've had a pattern of a big sell off on Fridays and Mondays and sometimes we get a big down day, we don't get the follow through on Monday, but to me, this looks like it's all clear on the way down.
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Americans Have the Most to Lose in a Trade War – Ep. 344
5 april 2018 · 31 min
Extreme Volatility Lees meer
It was another extremely volatile day in the U.S. stock market. When I finished my podcast on Monday and we had that big drop, I suspected that Tuesday might be a reversal Tuesday. So I thought we'd get a bounce on Tuesday and, in fact we did. We had a big rally; the Dow was up 400 points or so. Then this morning the Dow opened up down 500 points. In fact when I woke up this morning, a couple of hours before the market opened, the Dow was down closer to 600.
Reversing Up
Typically when we get these huge sell offs right on the open because overnight weakness, what generally happens is that we end up reversing up - getting some buying after we open the markets down, and that's exactly what happened. The markets ended up recovering the entire loss. We closed around the highs of the day: the Dow up 230 points and the NASDAQ up just over 100 points. This is a reversal. Checking the numbers, the Dow did not take out yesterday's low but the NASDAQ and the S&P did. All the markets closed above the previous day's high.
Bear Market: Primary Trend is Down
I'm sure some people will look at these numbers and say, "Hey, this is a technical reversal, we took out the lows we closed above the highs, it's an outside day and this is maybe the end of the correction. I do think potentially we could have more to the rally. But I think the rally is the correction. I still think this is a bear market. We narrowly avoided the Dow Theory sell. The Dow Theory is still on a buy, and now we have a bit of a reversal, so maybe this correction has a little more legs. The correction being the move up. I think the primary trend is down. I don't think today's reversal is big enough to have put in the low of this correction if it is a correction. So I still think that we are in a bear market.
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Markets Slide a Slope of Hope – Ep. 343
3 april 2018 · 36 min
Really a Head Fake Lees meer
As I suspected and as I stated in my last podcast at the end of the first quarter, I speculated that the rally that closed out the quarter was really a head fake. When the quarter started, I said you would see a resumption of the downtrend of the evolving bear market, which I believe we are already in.
Bear Market
Even though technically we're not there yet because we're not down 20%, but you can't get to 20% without first hitting 10%. Although not officially acknowledged, we are in a bear market. Just as often a recession is not acknowledged until after 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, but clearly you're in the recession for a long time before it's officially acknowledged. That doesn't mean you weren't in a recession before they admitted it, albeit not officially. Similarly, they haven't proclaimed this bear market.
The Fed Could Change the Game
There's one caveat: if the Federal Reserve comes in and changes the game by taking away the rate hikes or launching QE4, then we may never make it to a bear market. But if the Fed continues on its current path and maintains the current pretense, then we are in a bear market and it's only a question of time before it is officially acknowledged.
No Real News to Blame for Sell Off
As I expected, traders came back from the Passover/Easter break and started to sell. They came in almost out of the bell; no real news to blame the selloff on. Now they tried to blame it on Trump and the tariffs, and while I agree that tariffs are a problem, there was nothing new over the weekend. Yes, China came out and announced a couple of billion dollars worth of tariffs on some agricultural products, etc, but this was not unanticipated. Anybody who did not think this was coming - c'mon - China could have could have done a lot worse than this.
Any News is an Excuse to Sell
In fact, the market could have just as easily rallied on the fact that this is such a small response and they could have said, "Oh, this is nothi…
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Quarter Ends but Pain Begins – Ep. 342
30 maart 2018 · 38 min
Holiday Rally Lees meer
Major U.S. stock markets managed to finish a holiday-shortened week with strong rallies. The Dow Jones was up 254 points on the day; earlier in the day it was up better than 400, so the last hour did see the U.S. markets giving up part of their gains. The NASDAQ up 114 points, S&P up 35.87 points, so these rallies today were enough to put the market in the black for the week. But not for the month - all the markets are down significantly in the month of March, and also for the first quarter. All the major stock market indexes are down.
First Down Quarter in 10
This was the first time in 10 quarters - we had 9 consecutive positive quarters. I think that's a record; I'm not sure, but 9 consecutive up quarters. The U.S. stock market finally broke that winning streak. We'll see how investors who thought U.S. stocks can only go up, we'll see how they may react to their first down quarter in 10, but it's not going to be the last down quarter. It's not going to be the last down quarter. I think its going to be the beginning of several down quarters to come. Remember the market action that I've been observing really looks to me like a bear market.
Window Dressing
Today, of course, window dressing; oftentimes you see rallies on the last day of the quarter. Managers maybe are trying to buy up some of the stocks they own to dress up their statements so they look better so they can bill on higher portfolio value. If you have enough people doing the same thing: paint the tape, whatever you want to call it, you can get some of these rallies. But my guess would be that we can quickly undo this rally next week when the second quarter begins, and maybe some people who are looking at the quarterly performance decide that this is it. We rode the upstream and let me allocate some of the money out of U.S. stocks, whether it's to bonds, whether it's to foreign stocks or because they want to go to cash, whatever, we can certainly see some reallocations beginning early …
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Investors Remain Oblivious to Flashing Warning Signs – Ep. 341
28 maart 2018 · 36 min
Incredible Stock Market Volatility Lees meer
We're having more incredible stock market volatility and I've spoken about the pickup in volatility as another sign that things are different; that we've had a change. Increased volatility usually happens at inflection points, especially when we had a record period of minimum volatility. A of a sudden, we're having incredible swings in the stock market. Case in point: Monday and Tuesday.
Up Day on Friday
When I did my podcast on Friday, I thought maybe we could have a Black Monday. We had a big down day on Friday, we had a big down day on Thursday. The market was down around 1100 points in 2 days. Could we have another big down day? Of course we actually ended up having a massive up day, in fact, I think the Dow was up better than 700 points on Friday. It closed 600 and change; not quite 700. The NASDAQ was up about 220 points, so even a bigger percentage move.
How to Boil a Frog
So we had this huge gain, and what a lot of people don't realize is that the stock market has some of its biggest daily gains in a bear market, not in bull markets. You have some spectacular rallies in bear markets. That is how bear markets operate. They are trying to follow the slope of hope. It's like trying to boil a frog. You turn up the heat slowly so the frog doesn't notice the temperature change and jump out. The idea is when you have these big spikes in the market, that creates some hope and optimism to hold on to stocks, thinking the decline is over. People are afraid to miss out on the next big up day, so it keeps people in the market, like keeping the frog in the water.
The Rally that Wasn't
So yesterday we had this huge rally and today we started off with another rally; the Dow was up over 200 points early on, NASDAQ was up 40 or 50 points and then by mid day the market rolled over. At one point the Dow was down better than 400 points. The NASDAQ at its lows was actually down more than the gain yesterday. Now there was a small rally on …
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Will Gold Breakout as Stocks Breakdown? – Ep. 340
24 maart 2018 · 37 min
The Rally that Failed Lees meer
On my last podcast, which I recorded on Wednesday, I pointed out that the market's failure to hold the rally in the aftermath of the rate hike. In the face of all of the bullish statements made by Powell about how great everything was, and how strong the economy was, we had a near 300 point rally that failed.
All Systems Go for a Market Decline
The Dow surrendered the entire rally, closed on the lows of the day; not a huge decline - it was only about a 45 point decline, but seems significant to me was the reversal. The fact that the market could not hold onto those gains - to me, that looked technically very weak. And I said on that podcast that I thought all systems were go for a stock market decline.
Not a Correction
Of course, I had a lot of other anecdotal evidence and things that I look at that had been leading me to believe that more down side was coming. In fact, I have never believed that we are in a correction. Everybody wants to talk about it on television - it's a stock market correction, because they don't consider it a bear market until you're down 20%.
In a Bear Market
Well, in every bear market, before you get down 20%, you've got to be down 10%. So if this is a bear market, if we ultimately go down by more than 20%, then this is a bear market right now. It's only a correction if it doesn't turn into a bear market. But if it becomes a bear market, it's been a bear market the entire time. I think we are in a bear market.
Fed Will Come in with Live Support
Now, I don't believe this bear market will be as bad as it could be. This market could go down way over 50%; I am not expecting that, because I do believe that the Federal Reserve will come in at some point and save the market, or at least try to save the market. But I think it's going to be a bear market before that happens, meaning the Dow will have to be below 20,000 before the Fed actually realizes that it needs to be put on life support.
1154 Point Decline in 2 Da…
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Is the Fed Losing Control of the Narrative? – Ep. 339
22 maart 2018 · 31 min
Fed Surprised No OneToday, the Federal Reserve surprised nobody. They raised interest rates by 25 basis points; the 6th rate hike since the Fed began, in December of 2015. The rate is now between 1.5% and 1.75%, so the midpoint of that is around 1.635. So we're still significantly below 2%, but I guess we're closer to 2% than 1% and obviously, we're a lot higher than zero which is where rates stood during most of the Obama Administration.The Fed Already Broke ItAs I said in my last podcast, everybody was convinced the Fed was going to raise rates, which is probably the reason they did it. The Fed doesn't want to upset the apple cart; the Fed does not want to concern anybody; if anything seems to be going well, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Of course, the Fed already broke it although the Fed does not understand that.Fed Looking All the Way out to 2020In fact what the market was looking for was an indication of whether or not the Fed was going to hike 3 times this year, or would they hike 4 times. I still don't think they know, although the consensus seems to be that as a result of today's statement and press conference, we're going to get 3 rate hikes this year, which means 2 more, not 3 more, but it's still not a done deal. But the Fed seems to be even more optimistic ab0ut the economy going forward, so the Fed is predicting 3 more rate hikes in 2019 and then more rate hikes in 2020. So the Fed is looking all the way out to 2020, saying the economy is going to be great, and we're going to keep on raising rates.Fed's Optimism Waxes as Economic Reality WanesIn fact, the Fed seemed more optimistic about the U.S. economy then they were in the past, which, to me, is all politics. Powell is up there, trying to talk up the U.S. economy because that's exactly what his boss, Donald Trump, wants him to say, so he is being a team player. One of the funnier parts of Powell's prepared statement is that he said the outlook for growth has been improving in recent weeks. Rec… Lees meer
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Is the March Rate Hike Really a Lock? – Ep. 338
20 maart 2018 · 36 min
Tomorrow is the first of the Fed's 2-day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, and it's going to be the first meeting where there is supposed to be a rate hike and a press conference for the new chairman, Jerome Powell. The markets are pretty much at 100% probability that the Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday. What the markets are grappling with is whether or not the Fed will raise rates 4 times this year, or only 3. Lees meer
Now, if they are going to raise them 4 times, it would mean they raised rates once per quarter. So they raise them in March, they raise them in June, they raise them in September and then they raise them again in December. Now, if they only do it 3 times, then, they pick one of these quarters where they don't do it. Most likely, if they only do 3 hikes, the hike they're going to skip is going to be the June hike. And, of course, if they skip the June hike, they're probably not going to hike in September or December, either because the economy will be much weaker by then, the U.S. stock market could be much lower. The fact is, I'm still not 100% sure that the Fed is going to hike on Wednesday.
I would agree that it is more likely than not that the Fed is going to hike, because they've been hiking interest rates all along. The Fed so far has not given any indication that they're not going to hike because they don't want to give up the ghost of this "vibrant recovery", where they need to raise rates because everything is going so well. But that whole narrative, that whole illusion seems to be fading very quickly. As a matter of fact, on Friday the Atlanta Fed's model for Q1 GDP went down another notch! They are now down to 1.8% for Q1 GDP. Now does it sound like the Fed should be rushing to hike rates when GDP growth for Q1 is only going to be 1.8%? Does that sound like an economy that is in danger of overheating? When they were at 5.4% 6 weeks ago or so and now they're down to 1.8% and falling? For all we know, we could end up being below 1%.
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The Worse Things Get, the Less Investors Notice – Ep. 337
15 maart 2018 · 41 min
Retail Sales Down Three Months in a Row Lees meer
I've got so much to talk about today, it's hard to even figure out where to begin. So I'll start with some of the economic data that came out today, in particular, the February Retail Sales number. Remember last month we had a bad number, -.3, the second month in a row we had a decline in retail sales. The expectation was for a big rebound in February, +.4. Now, I suppose the good news, if you are looking for retail sales to pick up is that they revised the January number upward from -.3 to -.1. Still a drop, but not quite as big. But instead of getting a rebound, we got another drop! We got another .1% decline in February. That's a trifecta. Three months in a row of falling retail sales. That hasn't happened in 6 years. This is pretty rare.
Great Jobs, Lousy Sales
Why is this happening? Remember on Friday, we got this "beautiful", too-good-to-be-true, just what the doctor ordered jobs report that said about a million people got jobs. Why didn't any of those million people take their paychecks and spend them at a retailer? Trump is talking about all the great jobs and all the raises that people are getting and all the tax cuts, why are retail sales down for 3 months in a row?
Spike in Inventory Numbers
In fact, we also got some inventory numbers that came out that spiked up because of an 18-month slump in sales. So inventories are building because nobody is buying what's on the shelf. Well, that doesn't make sense if you believe the economy is great and we've got all these jobs. But if you're like me and you've been very skeptical of the economy being good, this is a validation, because Americans are broke.
Borrowing at Record Highs
This is despite the fact that borrowing is at a record high. Consumers are borrowing a lot of money, yet they're not spending it on retailers, what are they doing with the borrowed money? The government is borrowing a lot of money, we're running these huge deficits, yet it is not even affec…
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Tariffs Are Not Good for Workers
10 maart 2018 · 32 min
NASDAQ New High Lees meer
The stock market had one of its best days of the year; I think it was the second best day. The Dow was up 440 points - just under 1.8%. The NASDAQ was up 132 points; about the exact same percentage as the Dow. The NASDAQ is now at an all-time record high! It closed at 7,60.81. That is a new record. We have taken out the high from before the 10% correction. The NASDAQ is the only major index that has done that. That is not the case for the Dow, the S&P or even the Russell 2000, but the NASDAQ has taken off.
Optimism Around Stocks Not Affected by Tariffs
Remember I talked about this on my last podcast; people are trying to create the idea that these tariffs might be good for U.S. based companies, maybe some of our technology companies. I don't know how people are trying to spin this thing, but there's a lot of optimism about the sector of the economy that people believe will be not affected by the tariffs. Maybe there is a narrower set of stocks that everybody wants to pile into, and those stocks are disproportionately in the NASDAQ.
Perfect Nonfarm Payrolls Report
But the catalyst today was the perfect Nonfarm Payroll Report that came out today. If I were a conspiratorial person, which I am not, you could really say, "Wait a minute. This looks too good to be true. This is just what the doctor ordered ." Remember, last time we had the jobs report, even though the jobs number itself was weaker than expected, the markets were spooked by the bigger jump in wages. In fact, a lot of people thought that the 2.9% YoY growth in wages, and I think the month number was up maybe +.3, that that was really the catalyst for the big sell-off that we had. In fact, that was the number that everybody was looking for; not maybe the headline number, but the wage number. People wanted to confirm that wages were really growing.
Market Worries Boost in Employment Might Hike Wages Too Much
Trump, of course, every time he talks, he talks about the enormous growth in wa…
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All Government Economists Should Be Fired – Ep. 335
8 maart 2018 · 32 min
Continued Stock Market Volatility Lees meer
The U.S. stock market continues to be extremely volatile, and as I have said many times on this podcast, I think this volatility following a long-term record lack of volatility is a good sign that the uptrend has changed. So there's a good chance that the bull market is now a bear market, although few people seem to realize that. We're still relatively close to the highs. In fact, the NASDAQ shrugged off the morning weakness and managed to gain for the fourth day in a row.
Choosing the Best Seats on the Titanic
I'm actually hearing people commenting that tariffs or a trade war could benefit U.S. companies; give them an edge over the multinationals. All this is wishful thinking. Maybe they're trying to argue that there are some seats on the Titanic that are better than others. Believe me, if the economy tanks, and the tariffs or a trade war exacerbate it, there will not be a place to hide in U.S. stocks.
Market Spooked by Cohn Resignation
The volatility started last night with the announcement of the resignation of President Trump's Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn. One of the reasons that his resignation spooked the market (Dow futures initially tumbled about 400 points) was that he is opposed to the tariffs. The fact that he is leaving would leave people to believe Cohn has lost that argument internally at the White House, so he is leaving a path to which he has objected. For people who were thinking that Cohn would rein in the President, and that his rhetoric will not lead to action, now believe that Trump will go forward with the tariffs. So that's why the market sold off.
NASDAQ Finished Positive for the Fourth Day in a Row
By the time we opened up, the futures had moved off their lows and for most of the day the Dow traded between down a little over 100 and down 300. But we had a rally near the end of the day. The Dow closed down only about 82, and as I said earlier the NASDAQ finished positive for the fourth day.
Exem…
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America Can’t Win a Trade War – Ep. 334
4 maart 2018 · 48 min
Trade, Comparative Advantage and Protectionism Lees meer
I want to devote this entire podcast on the subject of trade and comparative advantage and protectionism, and this trade war that President Trump is so confident about. He wants to declare war because he thinks we are going to win. He's a winner, and he wants America to win and so he wants to launch a trade war so that America can win.
The Trade Deficit is the Problem
I've been talking about how the trade deficits are at record highs. We have the biggest trade deficits ever and Donald Trump, when he was a candidate rightly criticized these trade deficits. They are a huge problem. They are endemic of an even bigger problem, and Trump understands that. He knows enough to realize that trade deficits are bad. I will give him credit where credit is due because most economists don't even see the problem with these trade deficits. They are wrong. Trump is right. The trade deficit is a problem.
Tariffs Will Not Solve the Problem
But where Trump is wrong is in thinking that these tariffs are going to solve the problem. They won't. They will make the problem worse. This is the irony of these tariffs. They will result in larger trade deficits, not smaller trade deficits. And that's even without any foreign retaliation; meaning, if China, if Europe, if our trading partners do nothing in response to these tariffs, the result will be larger, not smaller deficits. Manufacturing jobs - the very jobs that Trump is hoping to save will be lost as a result of these tariffs.
Mr. Trump: Slash Regulations!
I wish someone in the Trump administration, would share this podcast with President Trump. He needs to really this about economics, to understand what needs to be done. If Trump really wants to shrink America's trade deficit, there are ways to do that. He could slash regulations, not just talk about all the regulations, but actually slash a bunch of them.
Shrink Government
But the most important thing that Trump could do to make A…
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Powell Optimism Belies Data – Ep. 333
1 maart 2018 · 36 min
Second Consecutive 300-Point Drop in the Dow Lees meer
The Dow Jones was down 380 points today, in fact this is the second consecutive 300-point drop we've had in the Dow. The Dow is now down about 4% for the month of February which just ended today. This also means the Dow's record-breaking monthly winning streak has also come to an end. Remember, the Dow was up every month since Donald Trump was elected President including every single month in calendar year 2017. That is something that has never happened in the history of the stock market. There has always been at least one month during any year where the market went down - except for last year, when it went up every month and it was also up in January.Not so in February. Big decline. The Dow dropped better than 1000 points on the month. We'll see if this is the beginning of a much bigger downturn. In fact, it could easily be the beginning of a bear market.
Powell's Congressional Testimony the Catalyst
The supposed catalyst for the sell-off yesterday and today was Powell's testimony before Congress yesterday. He goes before the Senate tomorrow - he was in front of the House yesterday to give his talk about the economy. The Congressmen's questions are all self-serving. They are all talking for their own constituents and nobody really cares what Jerome Powell says - except the market. The stock market is looking and caring about what he says.
Powell is Hawkish
What Powell said that spooked the markets - he was optimistic! He was hawkish - he was bullish on the economy. First of all, what do we expect? He is on Team Trump, just as Ben Bernanke said he was a team player when he supported the economy under Bush. So the Republican narrative is that the economy is great - everything is booming and Powell is going to toe that same line. But of course, when Powell speaks, the markets listen, and the markets didn't like that upbeat tone. It made them think, oh, we're going to keep getting rate hikes. Maybe we're going to get 4…