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350 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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Messing Around and Finding Out
14 maart 2025 · 1 uur 9 min
NEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen Lees meer
You can also just look up "Geopolitical Cousins" and it'll come up. We're the only ones. This is it. Welcome to the goat rodeo! The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:30) - Approach and Precepts
(11:40) – Net Assessments
(19:24) – Multipolarity
(35:09) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy
(43:24) - Canada-US Trade Tensions
(48:22) – Inflation and pain thresholds
(53:07) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies
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Referenced in the Show:
NEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their abilit…
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Pulling the Wrong Levers
12 maart 2025 · 1 uur 6 min
Trump’s tariff policy is all over the place - Ton, off, then back on again. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and Jacob' sister is even texting him about stocks. China? Barely flinching. Europe? Actually getting its act together, with Germany and Poland leading the charge. Meanwhile, Turkey’s making moves, the Kurds are recalibrating, and Iran’s back in the mix. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:40) - Sister Index
(05:40) - Impact of US Tariffs and Trade Policies
(08:46) - Trump Administration's Policy Analysis
(14:38) - Lumber Test Case
(24:52) - China's Response to US Tariffs
(34:18) - Germany's Defense and Fiscal Policies
(35:08) - Poland's Military and Political Moves
(36:39) - France's Political Climate
(38:02) - Europe's Industrial and Manufacturing Strength
(40:48) - EU's Strategic Moves and Turkey Relations
(46:42) - Italy's Political Dynamics and Starlink Controversy
(48:41) - Poland's Geopolitical Strategy
(53:50) - Turkey's Position and Regional Developments
(01:05:34 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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Referenced in the Show:
FP article link: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/07/europe-heavy-industry-trump-us-competition/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment…
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The Thing about Tariffs
7 maart 2025 · 46 min
Jacob Shapiro and Cornell Assistant Professor Wendong Zhang discuss tariffs from an objective perspective: Who will they impact? How much? How does that change based on different scenarios? If you are looking to be convinced of whether tariffs are good policy or not, seek another podcast; if what you desire is objective analysis about the potential impact of tariffs both good and bad, you have come to the right place. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:33) - Tariffs and Trade Wars
(07:54) - Impact of Tariffs on Various Economies
(18:33) - Retaliation and Sector-Specific Impacts
(27:48) - Global Trade War Scenarios
(36:52) - Future of Trade Policies
(44:10) - Conclusion
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Referenced in the Show:
Wendong's Paper - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5113925
Wendong's Site - https://wendongzhang.weebly.com/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for thei…
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Did the US Just Abandon Ukraine?
2 maart 2025 · 1 uur 2 min
In this emergency episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast, Jacob and Marko dissect the unexpected and intense Oval Office meeting between President Trump, Ukraine's President Zelensky, and JD Vance. We delve into the rare earth mineral deal, the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy, and Europe's reaction. The conversation touches on Zelensky's passionate defense of Ukraine's position, the viability of continued U.S. support, and the shifting dynamics in global geopolitics. Lees meer
Watch the full clip of the meeting below->
Full link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEOv4x_FIsc
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:42) - Setting the Scene and Marko's Take
(08:19) - Historical Context and Jacob's Take
(17:04) - Will Russia Turn?
(26:38) - Europe's Future in the Balance
(29:22) - Does it Matter if Trump Abandons Europe?
(34:48) - NATO's Purpose and American Interests
(37:06) - Germany's Military History and Current Perception
(41:45) - The Multipolar World and American Primacy (Trump and Obama)
(50:45) - Zelensky's Leadership and Ukraine's Future
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, in…
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Mr. Market Is Not Happy
28 februari 2025 · 35 min
Though operating at less than 100 percent capacity, Jacob and Rob gather to take stock of how markets are reacting to the changes of the last 6 weeks. They find themselves more optimistic about China, Germany, and Europe than others, and warn about signals that suggest President Trump’s honeymoon economy period is nearing its end. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:15) – Checking in on Mr. Market
(12:11) – International Market Over-performance
(13:11) – Germany and the Future
(22:03) - ...What about the European Union?
(23:03) - The EU and India
(26:21) - China and the Taiwan Question
35:14-end – China, Taiwan etc.
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Trade Wars are Metal Wars
25 februari 2025 · 57 min
Jacob welcomes Tomas back onto the podcast in the wake of China’s announcement that licences will now be required to export 20 tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum-related products to "safeguard national security interests.” Tomas and Jacob talk about how to align government priorities to secure access to materials and the complexities around building capacity in a deglobalizing world where demand for materials has literally never been more intense. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) – Intro
(05:25) – Government priorities
(11:12) – China and critical minerals
(21:32) – Economics of mineral refining
(31:27)– Social license to operate
(38:19) – Feasibility of climate friendly goals
(43:34) – Aluminum and REE case studies
(52:35) – Food for thought
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Perceived Concessions
21 februari 2025 · 1 uur 1 min
Rob is off this week! Instead, Jacob is rejoined by former colleague and current chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research Matt Gertken. They recap the week in geopolitics – specifically, the seachange in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, the potential role of Turkey, and the future of the Black Sea. They close with thoughts on China and the Middle East. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:30) – Gravity of the moment
(12:30) – Will Russia invade the Baltics?
(19:10) – Turkey & the Black Sea
(33:00) – Germany
(40:25) – China
(50:38) – Iran and the Middle East
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Stop Waiting To Live a Good Life
18 februari 2025 · 1 uur 31 min
Jacob and Rob welcome Narath Carlile from MakeTimeFlow to the podcast to talk about human flouring, deep success, and time management. Rob and I could have talked to Narath for even longer than 90 minutes, but in this first episode with Narath, we talk about his background and why he developed the tools he has created to help people invest and protect their time. Narath explains some of the science and context around informatics, human flourishing, and deep success. Rob and Jacob share some of their successes and failures in working with Narath. The group closes by talking about how to protect time in a world that seems determined to steal it from us. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) – Intro
(03:04) - Narath
(15:36) – Geography of wellness
(28:18) – Informatics and human flourishing
(48:28) – Making goals
(01:00:04) – Rob and Jacob share experiences
(01:18:43) – How to stay positive
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to MakeTimeFlow: https://www.maketimeflow.com/about/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ ma…
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USAID's Demise: What It Means for Global Power and U.S. Influence
14 februari 2025 · 54 min
A candid discussion with Emma Pennisi on the centers on the ignominious assault on the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the negative consequences that will follow. Emma Pennisi is a seasoned veteran in the USAID domain is here in a strictly personal capacity. Lees meer
Pennisi articulates her perspectives regarding the potential ramifications of this dismantling on U.S. global influence and strategic interests.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:32) - The Origins and Controversies of USAID
(05:39) - The Founding Principles of USAID
(11:20) - Altruism by Un-Design
(24:08) - The Future of Foreign Aid: The End of USAID
(28:46) - The Impact of USAID on Global Health and Migration
(37:46) - Analysis of Foreign Aid's Long-Term Impact
(45:03) - The Impact of USAID Dismantlement
(49:23) - The Impact of Direct Aid: A Personal Story
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Referenced in the Show:
Lewis Lucke episode link: https://getpodcast.com/dk/podcast/covid19-a-fresh-look/44-ambassador-lewis-lucke_b67e81e8a5
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We …
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#256 - And Now, The Weather
11 februari 2025 · 41 min
Daryl Ritchison joins the pod to discuss the intricate interplay of weather phenomena affecting global climates, with a particular emphasis on the anomalous snowfall witnessed in the Gulf region, a rare event that has sparked significant interest. Jacob and Daryl explore the implications of a weak La Niña on weather patterns, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and finish on weather conditions in Europe and India. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:00) - Snow in the gulf
(5:30) – Weak La Nina
(11:20) – US Forecast 2025
(18:40) - Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, South America
(26:00) – Europe
(31:05) – India
(33:50) – Drought
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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#255 - Strategic Ketchup Reserve
7 februari 2025 · 1 uur 3 min
-- Lees meer
Timestamps:
(00:07) - Intro
(00:30) - Monetize the asset side of the balance sheet
(17:18) - Bitcoin
(25:00) - Debt
(32:17) - Macro looks at England, India, Brazil, China
(41:40) - Indonesia's Future: Opportunities and Risks
(53:42) - Gaza and Analyzing Trump's Negotiation Strategy
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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#254 - Geopolitical Cousins
4 februari 2025 · 1 uur 33 min
Jacob and Marko had planned to pod today anyway…but then Luka got traded, Trump threatened tariffs, and the whole world went generally mad, so they had to go for over an hour and a half! Special announcement for those who make it to the end. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - The Evening Special
(03:33) - Unexpected Developments
(18:14) - The Implications of Tariffs and Negotiations
(28:14) - Geopolitical Implications of Tariffs
(36:23) - The Multipolar World and America's Strategic Position
(49:39) - The Shifting Dynamics of Global Power
(01:00:40) - Geopolitical Perspectives on the Ukraine Conflict
(01:07:08) - The Future of Ukraine and Russia's Strategy
(01:18:41) - The Future of Luka Doncic: Challenges and Opportunities
(01:28:06) - Introducing Geopolitical Cousins: A New Podcast
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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#253 - Lose the War, Win the Peace
3 februari 2025 · 50 min
Jacob welcomes the always insightful and provocative Jacek Bartosiak of Strategy&Future onto the show to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war and the evolution of the multipolar geopolitical system. Jacek makes his case that a systemic, global war has already begun – and warns the U.S. what will happen if it indulges in hubris and pushes too hard on President Trump’s “America First” rhetoric. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:01) - Ukraine Updates - Will Russia negotiate?
(11:09) - Will Russia negotiate?
(19:00) - The Geopolitical Landscape: Turkey and Germany's Role
(28:06) - The U.S. and China's influence in Eurasia
(33:36) - The future of Transatlantic relations
(39:35) - The future of Europe's role in global politics
(44:51) - Peace > War
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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#252 - Mexican Leverage
31 januari 2025 · 56 min
Jacob and Rob break down the tech market shake-up caused by Deep Seek, a rising Chinese AI company, and what it means for U.S.-China relations and global AI competition. They dive into Nvidia’s stock drop, how AI rivalry is driving investor sentiment, and the shift toward cheaper, decentralized tech. The conversation also explores the economic ties between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, and how these relationships will shape trade policies. Throughout, they stress the need for a clear-eyed view of market trends and stability in U.S.-Mexico relations amid growing tensions with China. Lees meer
Timestamps:
(00:02) - Intro
(01:06) - Market Reactions and AI Developments
(10:24) - Decentralization and Global Dynamics Within AI
(34:30) - Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics and Economic Policies
(37:15) - Mexico's Economic Position and Geopolitical Leverage
(54:14) - U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Primacy
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e…
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#251: Don't Forget The DRC
25 januari 2025 · 22 min
Jacob discusses several key geopolitical developments, focusing on President Trump's recent inauguration and the implications of his trade policies. Notably, Trump did not immediately raise tariffs on China as anticipated, signaling a potential shift towards negotiation rather than confrontation in international trade. Shapiro also highlights the significance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's first diplomatic visit to Panama, suggesting it could mark a renewed focus on Latin America. Additionally, he reflects on Ursula von der Leyen's remarks at Davos regarding the complexities of global trade and the need for Europe to establish a more cohesive capital market. Throughout the discussion, Shapiro emphasizes the importance of adaptability and resilience in navigating today's unpredictable geopolitical landscape. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:03) - Navigating a New Administration's Trade Policies
(10:17) - The Future of European Integration
(13:44) - Current Events in the Democratic Republic of Congo
(19:21) - Resilience in a Changing World
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced ar…
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#250 - Hungarian Baby Incentives
17 januari 2025 · 58 min
Jacob and Rob Larity dive into another weekly update, focusing on the intertwined economies of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. They discuss how the U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and trade could significantly impact these neighboring countries, particularly highlighting Mexico's unique position to leverage its relationship with the U.S. amidst rising tensions. They explore the implications of economic policies, such as the recent jobs report and inflation data, while also dissecting the emotional drivers behind public sentiment on inflation forecasts. The conversation touches upon historical parallels in presidential second terms, underscoring the challenges that may lie ahead for Trump as he navigates a politically divided landscape. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:46) - Naptime and the Economy
(22:35) - The Impact of Tariffs on Canada and Mexico
(29:29) - The Economic Landscape of Mexico and Canada
(45:35) - The Importance of Maritime Choke Points
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our cl…
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#249 - Trumpismo Rising
14 januari 2025 · 1 uur 13 min
Jacob and Elohim Monard dive into the significant shifts in voting patterns among the Latino community in the recent U.S. presidential election, highlighting how Trump's appeal has grown, particularly among younger Latino voters. Jacob and Elo discuss the complexities behind these trends, noting that while Trump secured around 40% of the Latino vote, demographic breakdowns reveal nuanced support, especially among Latino men and younger generations. Elo emphasizes that the Latino population is diverse, and their political alignment is influenced by various factors, including migration stories, geographic locations, and generational differences. The conversation further explores how the political dynamics in the U.S. reflect broader trends in Latin America, suggesting that Trump's brand of populism, or "Trumpismo," may find resonance beyond U.S. borders. The episode concludes with reflections on how these evolving narratives will shape both Latino politics and U.S. relations with Latin America moving forward. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:03) - Intro
(01:34) - Analyzing the Latino Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election
(22:03) - The Changing Dynamics of Latino Political Support
(28:01) - The Impact of Social Media on Political Awareness Among Young Latinos
(44:23) - The Evolving Identity of Hispanics in America
(58:33) - The Rise of Trumpismo and Its Implications
(01:03:41) - The Political Landscape: A Shift in Focus
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and o…
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#248 - Yet Another New World Order 🙄
10 januari 2025 · 59 min
Jacob Shapiro returns from paternity leave, jumping right into a discussion about the surprising implications of Trump's recent comments on military intervention and territorial ambitions. He compares his sixth-grade imagination of invading Qatar to Trump's statements about Greenland and the Gulf of Mexico, exploring the potential geopolitical ripple effects of such rhetoric. The conversation also delves into the economic landscape, particularly how anticipated tariffs under a Trump administration could impact U.S. relations with Canada and Mexico, as well as the broader implications for inflation and the labor market. Additionally, Jacob highlights a noteworthy thaw in Japan-China relations, suggesting that Japan may be recalibrating its foreign policy approach amidst changing global dynamics. Finally, the episode touches on Germany's evolving political climate and the potential for impactful reforms as the country navigates its economic challenges. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
Chapters:
(00:00) - Intro (we're so back)
(03:16) - The Shift in Foreign Policy Perspectives
(12:21) - Trump's Foreign Policy
(19:34) - Macro-Econ Checkup
(25:18) - The Impact of Immigration on Labor Markets and Inflation
(35:17) - Shifting Dynamics: US Energy Policy and International Relations
(40:54) - Japan's Evolving Foreign Policy
(46:47) - The Shifting Political Landscape in Germany
(53:11) - The Economic Shift in Germany
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities,…
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#247 - Syria
16 december 2024 · 59 min
Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari to the podcast to discuss the shocking collapse of the Assad regime. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(05:30) - Who are the Syrian rebels
(17:10) – Turkey + Qatar
(27:20) – Kurds
(37:40) – Iran and the Houthis
(43:44) – Saudis, Jordan, Egypt
(50:55) - The death of Islamism
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Kamran Bokhari - https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/kamran-bokhari/
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#246 - Government Collapse Week
13 december 2024 · 57 min
Jacob checks in from paternity leave to talk to Rob about the latest in markets. From there, they offer some hopefully insightful if slightly disjointed thoughts about France (no deal), Syria (little deal), and South Korea (big deal). Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:01) – CI Club
(05:30) – US and Global Markets
(26:33) - France and Europe
(35:30) – Middle East
(49:13) – South Korea
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#245 - Bully Capitalism
15 november 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Jacob and Rob parse some of President-elect Trump’s first cabinet picks and what it might mean for economic policy. They compare previous approaches to economic policy and make some provocative comparisons. From there, they turn to China’s (underwhelming) “stimulus” announcement last week, and close with some thoughts on Japan’s recent election. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:54) - Global Ice Trade
(03:56) - Scott Besant's Economic Policies
(18:51) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Models
(33:21) - The Facade of Dollar Exchange
(34:11) - El Salvador's Bitcoin Bet
(35:53) - Trump's Cabinet Picks and Policy Clashes
(37:08) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus
(48:23) - Japan's Political Landscape
(58:20) - China's Global Investments
(59:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Global Dynamics
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to application for Club CI: https://bit.ly/club-ci
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into acco…
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#244 - Japan is Waking
11 november 2024 · 48 min
While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we’ve known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias’s recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:33) - Japan 101
(08:07) – Japanese disaffection
(16:26) – Japanese paralysis
(19:17) – Zoom out
(23:31) – China
(31:00) – ROK/Japan
(36:45) – Shinzo Abe
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to Tobias’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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#243 - Trump's Triumph: What the Election Means for America and the World
8 november 2024 · 1 uur 8 min
Jacob and Rob dive into Donald Trump's surprising victory and its potential impact on various sectors, including the economy and the markets. They discuss the prevailing mood in both the US and Europe, highlighting a sense of resignation to Trump's return among many citizens. They explore the market reactions following the election results, noting the volatility in risk assets and the contrasting performance of renewable energy stocks and traditional industries like steel. The conversation also touches on the evolving political landscape in Germany, where the government is facing significant challenges, potentially reshaping Europe's response to US policy under Trump. Throughout the discussion, there is a critical examination of the term "vibes" and its influence on public sentiment and market behavior, raising questions about how perceptions can drive decisions in uncertain times. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:16) – Rob reaction
(07:45) – Market reaction
(30:20) – U.S./China
(54:00) – Bitcoin
(56:15) – Germany and Europe
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice …
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Four More Years: Trump 2.0 and What Comes Next
7 november 2024 · 2 uur 21 min
Jacob and Marko tackle the results of the 2024 election as only they can – in a 2 hr+ episode, they discuss what happened in the election, what Trump’s agenda will mean for the economy and markets, how to understand the geopolitical impact…and what his victory might mean for the future of the United States. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:17– Realignment or flash in the pan?
15:25 – Domestic agenda
40:40 – US-China Relations
1:03:40 – Mexico
1:13:20 – Ukraine/EU
1:27:51 – MENA/Iran
1:40:25 – Future of the USA
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#242 - Gold, Migration, and Cocaine
3 november 2024 · 56 min
Description (replace me) Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:01 - Intro
01:14 - Understanding Crime in Latin America
08:30 - Case Study: Guatemala and Its Challenges
19:48 - Emerging Trends in Drug Trafficking
22:54 - The Narco State Concept Explained
31:24 - The Situation in Mexico: Democracy at Risk
44:02 - El Salvador's Authoritarian Shift
45:52 - Peru's Political Instability and Future Outlook
56:03 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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Referenced in the Show:
https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/937740/pdf
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/can-mexicos-next-president-control-the-military/
https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/perus-anti-law-enforcement-turn-is-a-threat-to-regional-stability/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#241 - U.S. Election 2024 Preview
1 november 2024 · 58 min
The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction
02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications
04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions
10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynamics
15:40 - Market Reactions and Future Projections
26:52 - Market Reactions to Potential Trump Victory
28:56 - Impact of Fiscal Spending and Inflation
30:39 - Equity vs. Bond Markets
33:42 - Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities
36:03 - Illegal Gold Mining in Latin America
37:31 - Potential Harris Victory and Economic Policies
41:55 - Historical Perspectives on Economic Policies
46:06 - Investment Strategies Amidst Volatility
50:44 - Long-term U.S. Economic Outlook
56:56 - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment a…
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#240 - The Illusion of Moral Decline
22 oktober 2024 · 43 min
Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani
00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline
00:31 - Human Psychology and Moral Perception
04:38 - Survey Findings on Morality
02:03 - Understanding Cooperation and Negativity Bias
14:03 - Exploring Political Polarization
11:28 - The Role of Social Media in Perception
42:26 - Conclusion: Optimism in a Complex World
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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#239 - Introducing Club CI
18 oktober 2024 · 59 min
Jacob and Rob take a break from geopolitics and markets to talk about changes at Team CI – why they are moving their asset management activities to The Bespoke Group, how Cognitive Investments is changing… and how you can be a part of it... They unveil the launch of Club CI, a new community designed for like-minded individuals seeking to deepen their understanding of geopolitics, technology, and personal growth. This episode dives into the structural changes within Cognitive Investments, highlighting Jacob's new role as head of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group and Rob's position as CIO. They discuss the importance of creating a supportive environment for sharing knowledge and fostering creativity among members, emphasizing the dual tiers of membership that cater to both established professionals and emerging talents. The conversation also touches on the integration of productivity tools and methods from experts like Nareth Carlisle, aimed at enhancing personal effectiveness and well-being. As they explore the vision behind Club CI, Jacob and Rob invite listeners to consider how they can engage with this evolving community. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:56 - What is Club CI?
03:54 - Transitioning to Bespoke Group
09:14 - Building the CI Community
10:12 - Understanding Human Capital Trends
21:37 - The Vision for Club CI
22:09 - The Structure of Club CI
29:01 - Member vs. Fellow Tiers Explained
55:22 - Closing Thoughts and How to Join
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make go…
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#238 - The Future of the Middle East: Reflections on a Year of Conflict
11 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Jacob and Rob consider how the world has changed (or hasn’t) since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023. From there, they offer thoughts on innovation in seemingly random countries like Iraq and Chile, before turning to more traditional topics like the U.S. economy. They close with a few bright spots…and a dumpster fire in Pakistan. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:01 - Intro
00:55 - Reflections on October 7, 2023
03:49 - The Impact of Global Events on Trade
09:00 - The Situation in Iraq and Food Self-Sufficiency
29:28 - Economic Growth and Innovation in Developing Countries
29:38 - Concerns about Ireland's Economic Future
51:30 - Analyzing Pakistan's Economic Challenges
01:00:35 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#237 - Fires, Strikes and Brazilian Success
4 oktober 2024 · 56 min
Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more. The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike, particularly its potential impact on the supply chain during the crucial holiday shipping season and the broader economic consequences, including inflationary pressures. They draw parallels to past labor movements and discuss the evolving dynamics of labor and production in the U.S., highlighting the challenges posed by automation and protectionist policies. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical context, emphasizing how current events in the Middle East and elsewhere are intertwined with domestic labor issues. Furthermore, they reflect on the inadequacies of insurance coverage in light of recent flooding in North Carolina, illustrating the hidden vulnerabilities within both personal and corporate risk management. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:01 - Intro
00:47 - Port Strikes in the US and Historical Context
09:50 - Impact of Port Strikes on Supply Chains
39:57 - Insurance and Risk Management Insights
53:25 - Brazil's Economic Situation and Credit Ratings
54:55 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make g…
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#236 - Iran’s Strategic Loneliness
2 oktober 2024 · 50 min
Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel as a sign of desperation rather than strength, aiming to control damage and assert some level of deterrence in a rapidly deteriorating situation. They also touch on the internal political dynamics in Iran, including the impact of leadership changes and public sentiment towards foreign policy. Azizi emphasizes the challenges Iran faces, including a lack of reliable allies and the potential for further escalation in its conflict with Israel and the United States. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:01 - Intro
00:28 - Iran's Strategic Position
07:04 - Iran's Asymmetric Deterrence Strategy
38:31 - Iran's Internal Politics and External Strategy
48:10 - Conclusion and Reflections on Iran's Future
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its represen…
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#235 - Trump v Harris Victory Scenarios w/ Cousin Marko
1 oktober 2024 · 1 uur 48 min
Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn’t) mean for the Middle East, whether China’s stimulus is real, and what’s next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
00:01 - Introductory Remarks
00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel
01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goals
02:29 - The Impact of Iranian Retaliation
03:59 - Market Implications: Oil and Equities
34:04 - China's Economic Stimulus: A Policy Shift?
01:13:18 - Trump vs. Harris: Election Scenarios
01:17:32 - The Future of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
01:35:26 - NBA Preview and Predictions
01:47:45 - Closing Thoughts and Outro
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status …
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#234 - Alberto Fujimori, 1938-2024
30 september 2024 · 1 uur 6 min
Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:14) - Who was Fujimori
(09:37) – Japan and Peru
(14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori
(28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos
(35:45) – Post-Fujimori
(40:06)- Fujimori Legacy
(49:45) – Thank you but you’re a f’ing dictator.
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#233 - Bladerunner 2024 and China Stimulus
27 september 2024 · 1 uur
Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China’s moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA
28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil
30:00 – China
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#232 - Why Simplify When You Can Complicate?
23 september 2024 · 1 uur 11 min
Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:22) - Paulo’s view
(13:05) – US elections
(19:32) – Oil
(33:08)– China
(41:20) – Grains
(51:10) – Brazil
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to Paulo’s Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#231 - Paging Hezbollah
20 september 2024 · 1 uur 3 min
Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel’s new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico’s judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week’s events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:05-10:00) – Fed
(09:10) – BIOSECURE Act
(22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel
(42:51) – Mexico’s judicial reforms
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#230 - Microgeopolitics of Fargo and Brazil v. X
7 september 2024 · 50 min
Jacob and Rob are back from vacation! They share some microgeopolitical takes from their respective journeys and talk about the faceoff between Elon Musk and Brazil. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:40) – Fargo
(19:50) – Briancon
(30:00) – Brazil vs X
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#229 - Understanding WHO's Mpox Declaration
4 september 2024 · 53 min
Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO’s emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration
(06:30) - Needs v. realities
(12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines?
(22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty
(33:55) – Pitfalls of international law
(41:30) – How to build trust in institutions
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Referenced in the Show:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-desperately-needs-a-new-pandemic-treaty/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2410395.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/opinion/mpox-vaccines-africa-pandemic.html
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax st…
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#228 - The Arabian Gulf's Expanding Conflict + Modi's Visit to Ukraine
28 augustus 2024 · 35 min
John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro dive into the current geopolitical landscape, beginning with a lively discussion about the Democratic National Convention and Kamala Harris's rising poll numbers. They touch on the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf, examining the Red Sea Tanker attack and its implications for global shipping. They also speculate on the growing tensions between Israel and Hamas amidst rumors of a call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Narendra Modi's significant visit to Ukraine highlights changing geopolitical dynamics, while Elon Musk's controversy with Brazil over censorship broadens the conversation to global tech regulation. The episode concludes with an over/under segment, providing predictions on pressing issues like the Gaza ceasefire and Canada's railroad strike. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:34) - Kamala Harris' Poll Numbers and Media Coverage
(04:05) - On-the-Ground Insights from Chicago
(08:56) - Red Sea Tanker Attack and Global Shipping Disruptions
(14:37) - Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations and Trump-Netanyahu Call
(20:00) - India's Diplomatic Moves and Arms Import Strategy
(25:18) - Elon Musk's Twitter Tantrum in Brazil
(30:22) - Over/Under Predictions and Wrap-Up
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its r…
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#227 - The Tactical Objectives of Ukraine's Offensive Push
23 augustus 2024 · 45 min
Rob is on vacation, so Jacob welcomes Sim Tack to join him in his weekly Friday slot to discuss Ukraine’s invasion of Russia. The two address the logistical challenges facing Ukraine, such as air support and ammunition shortages, and analyzes the strategic and tactical objectives of the Ukrainian offensive. They explore various potential motivations behind the invasion, including creating negotiation leverage and affecting Russian forces' deployment. The conversation also delves into broader geopolitical implications, including Ukraine's coordination of Western-supplied weaponry and the potential long-term impacts on Russia and Ukraine's capabilities. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:14) Welcoming SimTac and Initial Thoughts on Ukraine
(02:06) - Ukraine's Recent Military Actions
(07:15) - Russian Air Power and Tactical Challenges
(14:54) - Ukraine's Strategic Objectives
(25:02) - Future of the Conflict and Military Leadership
(32:58) - European Sentiment and Infrastructure Threats
43:49) - Conclusion and Contact Information
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not…
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#226 - Monkeypox and AI
16 augustus 2024 · 51 min
Jacob and Rob talk about the expanding monkeypox global health emergency. From there they turn to artificial intelligence to talk about whether comparisons to previous bubbles in rail and telecoms are good models for thinking about it going forward. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:39) – Nordstream sabotage
(04:16) – Monkeypox
(11:00) – Government responses
(20:20) – Investment implications
(26:43) – Artificial Intelligence
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#225 - Great Power Network Competition and Bitcoin (and Aliens)
12 augustus 2024 · 59 min
Matthew Pines rejoins the podcast to talk about the virtue of Bitcoin as a part of U.S. national security policy. Come for the philosophical discussion on Bitcoin and the role of the U.S. dollar – stay for Matt’s updates on aliens at the end. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:00) - Bitcoin
(12:55) – Philosophical considerations
(27:05) – Rails / assets
(40:37) – China’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities
(50:30) – Aliens
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#224 - Sober Liquidity
9 augustus 2024 · 56 min
Rob dissects the market volatility of the week with characteristic apolmb. From there, Rob and Jacob tackle the overthrow of Bangladesh’s government and a discovery in Japan that may change the way the semiconductor industry works. Also, Rob’s take on the Olympics. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:41) - Market Madness: A Week of Financial Turbulence
(02:46) - Understanding Market Volatility
(08:37) - Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets
(19:18) - Bangladesh Political Crisis
(28:26) - Bangladesh's Garment Industry Resilience
(29:15) - Global Apparel Export Dynamics
(30:48) - Challenges in Textile-Dependent Economies
(33:52) - Bangladesh's Economic and Political Landscape
(36:05) - Innovations in Semiconductor Manufacturing
(37:53) - Investment Implications in Technology
(42:21) - The Future of Semiconductor Giants
(47:37) - Intel's Struggles and Market Sentiment
(50:16) - Paris Olympics Highlights
(54:22) - Conclusion and Disclaimers
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should n…
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#223 - Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (An Update)
2 augustus 2024 · 59 min
Jacob and Rob talk briefly about emerging markets and a return to orthodox economic policies in places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt. After a brief digression into the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates, they spend the rest of the podcast discussing a study that looked at the impact of direct cash transfers on labor supply and quality – and what it means that the key takeaway was that people want to have fun. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:47) - CI Club Concept
(05:45) - Global Geopolitical Updates
(07:38) - Focus on Nigeria and Ethiopia
(13:51) - Economic Strategies and Challenges
(17:49) - Japan's Economic Policies
(20:50) - Unconditional Cash Transfers Study
(29:05) - Challenges in U.S. Immigration and Workforce
(29:34) - Anecdotes on Job Market Shifts
(31:23) - Decline in Male Labor Force Participation
(34:57) - Universal Basic Income Study Findings
(40:34) - Philosophical Implications of Leisure
(44:29) - Automation and Future of Work
(46:47) - Starbucks Earnings and Service Quality
(48:06) - Historical Context and Policy Reflections
(55:59) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is …
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#222 - Maduro and Venezuela
1 augustus 2024 · 1 uur
Jacob welcomes Elohim Monard back to the podcast for an emergency conversation about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. While they both bring idealism to the conversation, it is hard to conclude that the current situation will lead to change – and that instead it will empower rogue elements, criminal enterprises, and authoritarian regimes around the world. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
Coming Soon (Jacob the Producer is sick rn)
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#221 - There IS A World Outside The U.S. Election (I Promise)
26 juli 2024 · 55 min
Rob and Jacob spend a few minutes discussing Kamala Harris before moving on to all the things happening in the world you’re missing because Trump and Harris are sucking up the headlines. They discuss Mexico trade relations, signals of change in Cuba and Venezuela, and major developments in Egypt and Vietnam, before closing with some bullishness on Japan. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:50) - Kamala
(05:55) – Mexico/Brazil/China
(17:15) – Cuba and Venezuela
(33:00) – Egypt
(43:51) – Vietnam
(47:50) – Japan
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#220 - The Trump Assassination Attempt
19 juli 2024 · 1 uur 15 min
Jacob and Rob discuss the attempted assassination on former U.S. President Donald Trump. They explore scenarios related to tariffs and currency devaluation if Trump wins, as appears increasingly likely. They close with thoughts about CHina and why they are optimistic about the future. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:50) – Assassination in U.S. history
(19:00) – Tariffs
(34:00) – Devaluing the dollar
(50:50) – China
(59:05) – Optimism, scenarios, and why the Fourth Turning is bullshit
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#219 - How The Crusades Created Trusts as We Know Them
15 juli 2024 · 1 uur 1 min
Matt rejoins the podcast to talk about a first step toward estate planning: trusts. That may sound wonky or boring, but stay with us – not only do we make it geopolitical, we make it philosophical, interesting, and relevant. Come for the intersection of politics and planning, but stay for the important points about privacy at the end as well. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:28) - Overview of Trusts and Geopolitical Context
(02:59) - Historical Origins of Trusts
(10:09) - Modern Trust Structures and Legal Nuances
(15:33) - Revocable vs. Irrevocable Trusts
(19:08) - Categories and Types of Trusts
(29:12) - Understanding Revocable Trusts
(29:34) - The Role of Trustees and Asset Protection
(29:53) - Privatizing Decision Making with Trusts
(30:41) - Irrevocable Trusts and Third-Party Trustees
(32:31) - Who Needs a Revocable Living Trust?
(33:38) - The Probate Process and Intestate Succession
(35:32) - The Importance of Structured Estate Planning
(38:16) - Advanced Estate Planning Strategies
(41:13) - Demographics and Estate Planning
(52:00) - The Impact of the Corporate Transparency Act
(54:38) - The Importance of Privacy in Estate Planning
(59:10) - Concluding Thoughts and Final Advice
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive I…
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#218 - Revolt of the Masses
13 juli 2024 · 48 min
Jacob and Rob reconvene to talk about the latest CPI print, inflation expectations, and the U.S. elections. They also get philosophical about populism and apply their insights to different countries: the U.S., France, the UK, Argentina, and Germany. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) -Intro
(00:39) - Weekly Chat with Rob: Catching Up
(01:17) - Inflation Discussion: Latest CPI Print
(03:36) - US Economic Slowdown: Service Sector and Manufacturing
(06:22) - Anecdotal Evidence: Tree Trimming and Airline Demand
(14:02) - Misallocation of Resources and Policy Volatility
(16:27) - US Election Impact on Economic Policies
(23:12) - Trade Tensions Under Biden vs. Trump
(24:08) - Populism and Global Political Trends
(25:44) - The Revolt of the Masses: Historical Context
(26:48) - Authority Structures and Information Democratization
(27:51) - French Elections: A Case Study
(29:58) - The Importance of Reading Books
(31:49) - Populism and Its Manifestations
(33:59) - Country-Specific Political Dynamics
(39:32) - Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times
(42:47) - Final Thoughts and Recommendations
(47:06) - Disclaimer and Legal Information
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided …
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#217 - Macron’s Gambit Worked…Sort Of – French Election Reaction
10 juli 2024 · 52 min
Shane McLorrain rejoins the podcast to take a victory lap on his predictions from a few weeks ago. He and Jacob talk about the election results, discuss what is next for France and Europe, and close with some spicy thoughts on lap swimming etiquette in ville lumière. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome
(00:59) - French Elections Recap
(02:10) - Election Results Analysis
(03:46) - The Republican Wall and Far-Right Dynamics
(09:08) - Future of French Politics
(15:56) - Macron's Presidency and Reforms
(23:34) - European Parliament and Far-Right Alliances
(28:12) - Rassemblement Nationale Under Investigation
(29:07) - European Far-Right Movements
(29:55) - Contrarian View on Democracy
(31:29) - Maloney's Unique Position
(32:27) - French Enthusiasm Against Fascism
(38:03) France's Relationship with the EU
(46:28) - Irish Politics and Public Sentiment
(49:40) - Swimming Culture in France
(51:07) - Conclusion and Disclaimers
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an…