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350 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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#216 - Double Your Pleasure, Double Your Shap
8 juli 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
Welcome to the first episode of the newly rebranded "Jacob Shapiro Podcast!" Jacob L. Shapiro brings in the illustrious Jacob N. Shapiro from Princeton University to chat about disinformation, overhyped fears of AI, the impacts of social media on mental health, and the political and economic implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative. They also delve into worries surrounding the U.S. election's election staff safety, and the future of media trust. We hope you enjoy :) Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Rebranding
(02:30) - The Jacob Shapiro Confusion
(05:00) - Interview with Jacob N. Shapiro
(07:15) - Concerns About Disinformation
(09:45) - The Role of Technology in Disinformation
(12:20) - Historical Revisionism and AI
(15:35) - TikTok and Social Media Influence
(20:10) - Mental Health and Social Media
(25:00) - The Future of Trusted News Sources
(30:00) - The Impact of Gen AI on Journalism
(35:00) - Shift to National News and Its Effects
(40:10) - Economic Models for News Industry
(45:00) - Challenges in Monetizing Quality Content
(50:30) - Political Polarization and Media
(55:45) - Election Concerns in the U.S.
(01:00:00) - Foreign Interference and Election Security
(01:05:50) - Interstate vs. Intrastate Conflicts
(01:10:30) - China's Influence and Global Competition
(01:15:00) - El Salvador's Bukele and Regional Politics
(01:20:00) - Commencement Address Principles
(01:25:00) - Closing Remarks and Disclaimers
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Referenced in the Show:
Where Americans get their News: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/
Independent Affiliation: https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx
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Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 …
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#215 - The Ozempic Boom and the Future of Biotech
5 juli 2024 · 55 min
Rob and Jacob take a step back from the nitty-gritty of geopolitics and markets to talk about the boom in biotech stocks related to GLP-1s. They explore whether people are getting more health conscious or not, and what that might mean for the future of the biotech industry. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:45) - GLP-1s and Ozempic
(10:50) - Health consciousness
(28:45) - Individualized healthcare
(37:25)-end - The future of biotech
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#214 - Pardon the Interruption: A New Geopolitical Show with International Intrigue
3 juli 2024 · 32 min
Jacob and John Fowler, former diplomat and lawyer and now partner at International Intrigue, are creating a new show on geopolitics modeled after the popular sports analysis show Pardon the Interruption on ESPN. Their goal? To bring you honest, objective, rigorous geopolitical analysis on the week’s most critical topics with irony, humor, and humility…and all in 30 minutes or less. Impossible you say? Perhaps! But we are trying anyway. Enjoy the show, share your feedback with us, and check out our friends at International Intrigue, they are doing great work. See you on the Dark Side of the Moon. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:45) – Assange
(06:45) – Bolivia’s failed coup
(10:30) – Chinese lunar probe
(14:45) – Kenya’s protests
(19:00) – The Biden-Trump debate
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Referenced in the Show:
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. Y…
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#213 - Crime in Latin America and the Virtue of Pessimism
1 juli 2024 · 1 uur 21 min
Jacob Shapiro welcomes Elohim Monard back on the podcast for a serious and important discussion on crime in Latin America. They discuss the reasons behind the increase of crime in the region, how it ties into migration, why strongmen like Bukele are so fascinating to geopolitical nerds everywhere…and why pessimism might be the answer to attacking crime head on. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:23) - Why is crime increasing?
(02:11) - tatistics on Violence in Latin America
(03:16) - Migration and Its Complexities
(04:41) - The Paradox of US-Latin America Relations
(06:56) - Root Causes of Crime in Latin America
(17:14) - Transnational Crime Networks
(21:48) - Local Control and Government Response
(33:46) - The Bukele Approach to Crime
(40:05) - The Challenge of Rule of Law in Latin America
(41:14) - Mexico's Approach to Crime and Militarization
(42:07) - The Paradox of Democracy and Authoritarianism
(43:44) - Criminal Organizations and Government Control
(46:49) - The Role of Criminal Groups in Society
(01:00:31) - The Need for Transnational Solutions
(01:07:53) - The Impact of the Pandemic on Crime
(01:10:17) - The Venezuelan Crisis and Regional Instability
(01:18:43) - Concluding Thoughts on Crime and Governance
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investm…
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#212 - France’s Elections: Historic and Hysteric
26 juni 2024 · 54 min
Jacob welcomes Shane McLorrain on the podcast to talk about French President Emmanuel Macron’s election gambit – and how it seems to blowing up in his face…but how it may not have the outsized impact on France than some expected. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:18) – Overview of France right now
(09:00) – Macron’s likability
(17:31) – What was Macron thinking?
(22:50) - Silver linings
(27:40) – French Civil War?
(32:14) – Effects on EU
(49:40) – What to watch
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#211 - Things To Come
21 juni 2024 · 8 min
Referenced in the Show: Lees meer
https://cognitivedissidents.org/
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#210 - Elohim Monard and Ignacio Asis: Argentina Chainsaw Massacre
18 juni 2024 · 54 min
Jacob brings back Ignacio Asis and Elohim Monard for a long awaited reaction to Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election. They explore how his term has gone thus far, and break down the big bills he was able to pass through Argentina’s Senate this week. They also talk about regional and even international implications. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(01:19) - Discussion on Argentine Politics
(04:29) - Milei's Legislative Achievements
(05:54) - Economic and Social Impact
(10:17) - Milei's Government Reduction Strategy
(16:44) - International Perception and Narrative
(22:09) - Comparison with Bukele
(26:56) - Milei Learning Curve and Global Polarization
(28:37) - Security and Basic Agenda
(31:04) - The Role of Military and Security in Argentina
(32:46) - Narco-Traffic and Security Policies
(36:33) - Milei's Promises and Economic Agenda
(39:02) - Governance and Market Reactions
(42:39) - Regional Impact and Right-Wing Populism
(48:09) - Final Thoughts and Future Outlook
(52:31) - Conclusion and Disclaimer
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advi…
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#209 - Let’s Talk About Artificial Intelligence
14 juni 2024 · 1 uur 10 min
Jacob and Rob tackle a subject they’ve been avoiding due to its massiveness and ubiquity: Artificial Intelligence. They also do a segment of microgeopolitics (Jacob was in Bogota this week) and close out with initial thoughts on French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprising decision to call for legislative elections after his drubbing in European Parliament elections. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) – Microgeopolitics: Bogota edition
(13:37) – Artificial Intelligence
(59:03) – France
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Referenced in the Show:
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#208 - Matt McClintock: The Good Life and Personal Sovereignty: Introducing Bespoke
7 juni 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Jacob welcomes Matthew McClintock, Founder and Executive Managing Director of Bespoke, to the podcast. Bespoke and CI are strategic partners, and this will be the first of what will become a monthly cadence as Jacob and Matt aim to explore and apply the intersection of geopolitics, investing, and blockchain with practical ideas about planning. Jacob and Matt have an open and candid conversation about Matt’s background, what Bespoke does, and offer some thoughts about how to think about estate planning, the future of money, and more. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) – Introducing Matt and Bespoke
(13:00) – Estate Planning 101
(25:30) – Iteration
(30:11) – The good life
(43:00) – The future of money and the role of crypto
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Bespoke:
Bespoke: https://bespokegroup.io/
Matt’s X: [https://x.com/mcclintock_m
Bespoke X: https://x.com/BespokeGroupCO
Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattmcclintock/
Bespoke LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bespoke-service-company-llc/ite: cognitive.investments
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Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considere…
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#207 - Dmitri Alperovitch: World on the Brink
4 juni 2024 · 51 min
Jacob welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch onto the podcast. Jacob met Dmitri via Twitter, where he was arguing against the case Dale Copeland made on the podcast for China not invading Taiwan anytime soon. Dmitri lays out why he thinks Dale (and Jacob!) are wrong – about China, about Taiwan, and about the United States. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(1:30) – Taiwan as Berlin
(17:10) – Taiwanese independence
(29:23) – Xi Jinpin psychoanalysis
(37:00) – US policy towards China
(44:13) – US strategies with China
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to Dmitri’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Century/dp/1541704096
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#206 - The Fourth Transformation: What’s at Stake in Mexico’s Elections
31 mei 2024 · 31 min
Jacob takes to the mic solo to fire up the hot-take factory. He previews Mexico’s elections – situating Mexican democracy in its own history, surveying AMLO’s successes and failures, and parsing who Claudia Sheinaum is and why she might be better for Mexico than you think. He also identifies the key questions you should be thinking about in terms of the election and Mexican-U.S. relations going forward Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) – Intro
(00:08) - Mexico’s Geopolitical Importance
(03:03) - Historical Context of Mexico’s Democracy
(10:22) – Claudia Sheinbaum as AMLO’s Successor
(20:42) - Comparisons and Future Projections
(24:11) - Mexico’s Foreign Policy and US Relations
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to Sheinbaum article: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Omar-Masera/publication/226764071_Mitigating_Carbon_Emissions_while_Advancing_National_DevelopmentPriorities_The_Case_of_Mexico/links/550c5a0b0cf2ac2905a3db2b/Mitigating-Carbon-Emissions-while-Advancing-National-DevelopmentPriorities-The-Case-of-Mexico.pdf
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be reli…
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#205 - Akshar Patel: Caste, Hindutva, and India's Elections
27 mei 2024 · 1 uur 7 min
Akshar Patel joins the podcast to talk about India. Jacob and Akshar explore what caste really means, how religion and caste affect Indian politics, and explore Akshar’s idea of Ideologues v. Identitarians in Indian politics. They apply some of these insights to India’s upcoming elections and what is at stake in Modi’s transformation of the country. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:30) – The Emissary
(06:30) – Left v right in India
(12:20) – Caste and Religion
(35:05) – Farmers and Soldiers
(43:15) – Ideologues v Identitarians
(48:21) – India’s elections
(01:01:20) – India’s future
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to Akshar’s article: https://theemissary.co/the-million-minorities-theory-of-indian-politics/
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#204 - Weekly Update: Darth Fed
24 mei 2024 · 1 uur
Jacob and Rob are here to bring balance to the force. They discuss why inflation expectations might be coming unhinged, how the Fed is trying to scare the market with its response, and just how much the Fed doesn’t have under its control. Come for the market/geopolitics talk, but stay for the extended Star Wars metaphors and the advice at the end about why buy&hold might be a strategy of a bygone era. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:01) - Markets Check-In
(10:45) – Inflation expectations and why consumers are so mad
(19:14) - Weird wage growth numbers
(25:43) - Fed response
(34:50) – Inflation and markets are out of control + volatility clusters
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#203 - Kamran Bokhari: Drinking from the Poison Chalice (fixed)
23 mei 2024 · 57 min
Kamran Bokhari rejoins the podcast to offer insightful perspectives on the apex of the Iranian leviathan. They discuss Ebrahim Raisi’s shocking death, the implications of the future of Iran, and what a post-Khamenei world might look like. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:30) – Khamenei’s successor
(08:40) – Conspiracy theories about Khamenei's death
(14:13) – What happens next?
(25:00) – Weakening of the Supreme Leader
(36:30) – Chances of an Iranian civil war
( 44:42) – Houthis, Gaza, and Jordan
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#202 - Bearish US, Chinese/Indian Equity, Russia's Push, Trump's Mexico Policy and NBA Power Politics
21 mei 2024 · 1 uur 9 min
Cousin Marko and Jacob are back at it. Marko shares why he’s turned bearish on the US after being “manically” bullish for many moons. They discuss China/India and compare/contrast the equity markets there. A brief discussion on Russia/Ukraine and Europe in general and a cold shower on former President Donald Trump’s threats to Mexico leads into an extended discussion on the NBA – predictions + the rise and fall of great players + the U.S.-led quest to hamper European success in the league. Enjoy, y’all. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:20) – US inflation, market, etc.
(09:45) – China/India markets and demographics
(31:00) - Regime risks in the USA
(32:55) – Europe - Putin's new defense minister, Russia's new push, Slovakia's assassination attempt
(44:30) – US/Mexico
(49:46) – Basketball
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You…
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#201 - Emergency Episode: Iran’s President is Dead + A Coup in the DRC?
20 mei 2024 · 20 min
Jacob takes to the mic for an emergency reaction to the big event everyone is paying attention to from the weekend (Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident) and perhaps the one that is being missed (a failed coup attempt in the DRC). Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:00) - Iran
(12:36) - Attempted Coup in DRC
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Referenced in the Show:
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#200 - Tariffs are Taxes (and why you shouldn’t invest in utilities)
17 mei 2024 · 1 uur 13 min
What better way to celebrate 200 episodes than a Rob-Jacob episode full of important insights. Jacob and Rob talk about some of their best calls of the past few years before turning to the flooding in Brazil, opportunities (and risks) in the U.S. electricity sector, and the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. They also talk about the cognitive bias of investing and financial advisory services. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:53) – Looking back on 200 podcasts
(12:53) – Cognitive biases in investing
(22:00) – What's happening in Brazil?
(30:00) – Why you SHOULDN’T invest in utilities
(52:50) – U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods
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Referenced in the Show:
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#199 - How to Avoid a U.S.-China War
13 mei 2024 · 1 uur 8 min
Dale Copeland joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, “A World Safe for Commerce.” He explains his theory of dynamic realism before pivoting to U.S.-China relations and an impassioned and thoughtful hot-take on why those predicting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan don’t just misunderstand China – they are participating in the realization of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Lees meer
Link to Dale’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Safe-Commerce-Revolution-International/dp/0691172552
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:40) – Multipolar or bipolar world?
(11:07) – Dynamic Realism explained
(21:38) – Conditions for Dale’s theory
(28:17) – U.S./China relations
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to Dale’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Safe-Commerce-Revolution-International/dp/0691172552
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult …
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#198 - Brazil Under Water
10 mei 2024 · 32 min
Rob is stuck in earnings hell, so you are treated to the dulcet tones of Jacob’s bass voice solo today. Jacob talks about the terrible flooding in Brazil and what it means for the country’s future. He also applies some insights from the disaster to housing insurance in the U.S. and other developed markets. He closes with a few thoughts on cocoa, coffee, and Mexico. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Brazil
(13:48) – Insurance
(20:21) – Cocoa and coffee
(24:37) – Mexico
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Referenced in the Show:
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#197 - Weekly Update: China, France, and Steel
3 mei 2024 · 51 min
Jacob and Rob are back at it for their weekly chat. They talk about the latest rumor that the Chinese government will prop up growth rates, explore whether French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambitions are realistic, and close with some thoughts on protectionism in steel. NOTE: PLEASE FILL OUT OUR SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7 Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(04:00) - Trends in Energy, Jokes
(07:32) - The Chinese Economy
(16:48) - US Investors and Economy
(23:25) – France, Macron, + more
(41:31) – Steel
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Referenced in the Show:
SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#196 - Sanaa Kamal: A Voice from Gaza
29 april 2024 · 42 min
If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza Lees meer
Jacob welcomes Sanaa Kamal, a Gaza-based Palestinian journalist who is currently in Egypt, onto the podcast. Jacob asks Sanaa about how her life has changed since Oct 7th and how she managed to reach Cairo. Sanaa bravely shares her story and her perspective on the ongoing war – and considering everything she has been through, her resilience and optimism in the face of such terrible adversity is admirable and worthy of emulation. A link to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, which she is using to get the rest of her family out of Gaza, is above.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(04:00) – Hell in Gaza
(16:03) – Escape to Cairo
(21:50) - What is the state of Palestinian refugees?
(27:05) – Can there be peace?
(29:55) - Hamas
(32:30) - How do we end the current conflict?
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Referenced in the Show:
If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not…
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#195 - Weekly Update: “Chaos” at U.S. Universities + Steel
26 april 2024 · 1 uur 7 min
Jacob and Rob return for a weekly chat about South Korea’s economy and challenges posed by the Asian economic model. They pivot to a discussion about entrepreneurship and whether it is in decline in the West, discuss steel markets and questionable decision making from large-cap U.S. companies. They close with a discussion of the “chaos” at U.S. universities and draw a different conclusion than you might think. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) – Intro
(01:00) - Lessons from ROK
(17:22) – Entrepreneurship
(35:18) – Steel
(49:23) – University upheaval
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Referenced in the Show:
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#194 - Dee Smith: God, Sex, & Death
23 april 2024 · 59 min
Jacob welcomes Dee Smith on the podcast. Dee and Jacob have had several conversation on Real Vision, but Jacob wanted to host Dee himself so they could talk about whatever they wanted. This podcast sure does deliver that – they talk about whether the world is actually getting worse (Jacob is an optimist and Dee a pessimist on that score), and even dive into an extended discussion on immortality…and why thinking about deep humanistic questions is actually at the core of everything we discuss on this podcast. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:40) – Dee's 2024 outlook
(10:45) – Hans Morgenthau, Multipolarity, Understanding complex systems
(23:23) – Is the world getting more/less stable?
(29:30) – Immortality (Philosophical)
(37:15) - Russia & Putin
(48:46) – Mexico
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Referenced in the Show:
Politics Among Nations: https://archive.org/details/politicsamongnat0006morg
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s pa…
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#193 - Marko’s Back!
19 april 2024 · 1 uur 19 min
It’s been too long since Jacob and Marko, cousins by choice, got together to record a podcast. They dive deep into what Trump winning the presidency again could mean for global geopolitics and trade – while addressing topics like U.S. inflation, Iran’s attacks on Israel, U.S. v global investing opportunities, and…of course…hot basketball takes. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:07) – U.S. Economy
(20:17) - Israel/Iran/KSA
(25:13) - What happens if Trump wins?
(33:44) – Trump/Biden scenarios
(38:30) - Biden's track record and trade deals
(46:36) - Tariffs
(59:36) - Multipolarity, bipolarity, charts and the future
(1:05:03) U.S. v. Global (shout out Louis Gave)
(01:11:50) - Basketball hot takes
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Referenced in the Show:
Louis Gave’s slides: https://research.gavekal.com/documents/10192/Unfoldinginflboom-apr2024.pdf
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax s…
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#192 - Yoroslav Trofimov: "Our Enemies Will Vanish"
17 april 2024 · 45 min
Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, takes time out of his busy travel schedule to join the podcast to discuss his recent book, Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence. Jacob and Yaroslav talk a little bit about his background before exploring some of the ideas he develops in his book – and looking toward Ukraine’s future, which Yaroslav makes the case is not so uncertain: that Ukraine’s independence has been secured in some form or another. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:40) – Yuroslav's Background
(7:20) – How did Russia get here?
(13:30) - Why did everyone underestimate Ukraine?
(22:40) – Zelensky v Zaluzhny
(27:04) - When are Ukraine's next elections?
(29:49) – Is the Russia/Ukraine war a stalemate? How much does Russia want?
(36:18) - German and European perspective on the war
(39:30) - Ukraine's relationship with China
(41:11) – The future
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Referenced in the Show:
Our Enemies Will Vanish - Yuroslav Trofimov: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/0593655184
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purpo…
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Emergency Update: Are we heading into World War Three?
14 april 2024 · 27 min
Iran launched a bunch of missiles and drones. What next? Lees meer
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#190 - Weekly Update: 47 Crises in 17 Years
12 april 2024 · 59 min
Jacob and Rob discuss the nature of economic crises, before exploring recent developments in the U.S.-China-Japan love triangle. They also explore the expectedly/unexpectedly hot CPI print and take lessons for the future. Spoiler alert: We think the market is wrong about the yen! Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:12) – Taxonomy of crashes/debating globalization
(12:26) – China, Janet Yellen,
(27:34) – Japan
(47:00) – Globalization revisited
(55:00) – Shameless plug
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Referenced in the Show:
NYRB article: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/04/04/the-crash-next-time-seven-crashes-harold-james/
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#189 - Weekly Update: Coronal Mass Ejection
5 april 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
Rob and Jacob are back at it. They discuss the earthquake in Taiwan and why they are skeptical of Taiwan’s economic future. From there they turn to a controversial article about how immigration has been driving US GDP growth and why demographics are not destiny. They close with some thoughts about the straitjacket of specialization and the dangers of too much expertise. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:10) - Taiwan
(19:40) - Coronal Mass Ejections and Black Swans
(23:07) – Taiwan
(25:10) – Immigration/Demographics
(45:30) – India
(47:30) – Historians rule
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Referenced in the Show:
Angus Deaton – https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Symposium-Rethinking-Economics-Angus-Deaton
Immigration and the US Economy – https://www.briefingbook.info/p/immigration-and-the-us-economy-since?utm_campaign=email-post&r=bkto&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Assuring Taiwan’s Innovation Future – https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/29/assuring-taiwan-s-innovation-future-pub-80920
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It …
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#188 - James Meadway: The First Crisis of the Anthropocene
1 april 2024 · 57 min
Jacob welcomes James Meadway, former British treasury official and current economist at The Progressive Economy Forum on for a cross-posted episode of Cognitive Dissidents and Macrodose. They discuss James’s recent essay about why COVID was both an accelerant of underlying trends, but also the first “crisis of the Anthropocene,” a phrase borrowed from Adam Tooze. They explore issues related to debt, climate, and prospects for growth. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:39) – Defining terms
(11:41) – Weaponizing finance
(20:50) – Crypto/Milei
(28:00) - WW3 + Ecological disasters
(40:57) – Debt
(45:15) – Can we grow our way out of the problem?
(51:30) – Silver linings playbook
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to Macrodose: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/macrodose/id1646528688
Link to James’s essay: https://socialistregister.com/index.php/srv/article/view/42873
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s pa…
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#187 - Sim Tack: Can Ukraine Still Win Against Russia?
29 maart 2024 · 1 uur
Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:12) – Lessons from Avdiivka
(13:10) – Signposts for Ukrainian and Russian collapse
(24:00)– Can Ukraine still win?
(29:30)– Sim’s take on Macron/French support for Ukraine
(38:30) – Where does the ammunition come from and
(40:43) – Ukraine's F16's
(47:54) - Zelensky v Zaluzhny and what it would take to get Russia out of the war
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Referenced in the Show:
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particu…
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#186 - Matthew Pines: Cyber, Bitcoin, and Aliens
25 maart 2024 · 1 uur 5 min
Buckle your seatbelts – this episode is going to take you on a ride. Matt Pines rejoins the show to discuss “the defining challenge of our generation” – the cyber conflict between China and the U.S. From there, they explore the global implications associated with the fragmentation of society due to digitalization and how it might impact currency, trade, and the future of war. And because it’s Matt they close by discussing aliens. Of course Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:48) – China v. US cyber conflict
(21:28) – Kinetic threshold
(37:48) – Bladerunner 2024
(50:48) – Bitcoin/Hunger Games
(57:33) – Aliens
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#185 - Weekly Update: Why We Still Like Japan & Other contrarian takes
22 maart 2024 · 40 min
Jacob and Rob are pressed for time, but they squeeze in a quick podcast between meetings to discuss the big news out of Japanese markets this week. They give a window into CI’s international allocation strategy and what countries they are feeling good and bad about, before turning to political intrigue in Vietnam and lessons for and from the U.S. semiconductor industry after the allocation of over $8 billion in grants to $INTC. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:30) - Japan and the Fed
(17:30) – Yikes Canada
(22:09) – Vietnam
( 31:41) – Intel and the CHIPS Act
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Referenced in the Show:
Economist Article: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/03/19/why-japans-economy-remains-a-warning-to-others
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#184 - Kevin Evans: The Largest Invisible Thing in the World
18 maart 2024 · 58 min
Jacob welcomes Kevin Evans to discuss Indonesia – Kevin’s experience in the country over the last three decades, the recent elections and mysterious change in the political mood of the country since 2019, Prabowo and his political ambitions, and the future of the Indonesian economy. They close with some talk about Jakarta and Indonesian food. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:25) - Why Indonesia
(06:06) – Shadows of authoritarianism
(14:00) – Prabowo
(29:25) – Future of the Indonesian economy
(41:25 – Indonesia-Oz relations
(44:33) – Jakarta
(54:02) – What to eat
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Referenced in the Show:
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#183 - Weekly Update: What is a Doji (and Why Should I Care?)
15 maart 2024 · 1 uur 14 min
Jacob and Rob are back at it for a marathon episode featuring your favorite segment, microgeopolitics, and extended discussion about technical analysis and why you should be wary of the euphoria in markets right now. They close with some thoughts on the latest (and hot) inflation print, and some notable developments in Ukraine and China. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:54) – Microgeopolitics – WI Dells
(14:20) – S&P 500 reversal?
(23:00) – Technical analysis
(29:50) – Japanese candlesticks
(47:30) – Inflation
(58:40) – Ukraine
(1:06:30) – China
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#182 - Gary Saul Morson: Russian Exceptionalism
11 maart 2024 · 45 min
Professor Gary Saul Morson of Northwestern University joins the podcast to discuss his recent article in The New York Review of Books about “Russian exceptionalism.” Gary explains what Eurasianism is, to what extent it motivates the decisions and ideology of the Kremlin, and how to think about the history of Russia’s ideas about the Westin the context of Russia and Ukraine’s futures. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:00) – Eurasianism
(17:00) – What does Putin think/believe
(28:06) – Russia’s views of the East/China
(32:32) - Russian exceptionalism
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to Gary’s piece: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/02/22/russian-exceptionalism-foundations-of-eurasianism/
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#181 - Weekly Update: What If Trump Wins? (Tariff edition)
8 maart 2024 · 54 min
Jacob is on the road, Rob is on vacation…and still they bring the analytical firepower to you each week! They do a little microgeopolitics on Eden Prairie, MN, before tackling a big, scary question: What happens if Trump wins and actually does what he says he will do in terms of tariffs? They close with a few thoughts on Emmanuel Macron’s spicy week. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:43) – Microgeopolitics (Eden Prairie)
(11:54) – What if…tariff edition
(20:30) - Tariff of Abominations History Lesson
(27:00) – Investment takeaways
(42:00) - Rejoinders from the Trump administration
(44:40) – France
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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#180 - Matt Gertken: The "Black Swan" Scenarios
4 maart 2024 · 47 min
Jacob welcomes Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA research, onto the show. They reflect on their careers at Stratfor before diving into Matt’s thoughts on the Chinese economy, Taiwan’s future, and “Black Swan” Scenarios investors and analysts should have on their radar in 2024. Lees meer
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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Pleasant Prairies and A Middle East Update
1 maart 2024 · 1 uur 4 min
Jacob is in a spicy mood, coming to you live from Pleasant Prairie WI. He and Rob do another round of “microgeopolitics” on this part of Wisconsin before diving into the Middle East and updating on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That segues into a brief conversation about the future of Europe before Jacob squares off against ChatGPT to find historical analogies to the UAE’s strange $35 billion investment in Egypt. Lees meer
See: https://www.emilydickinsonmuseum.org/to-make-a-prairie-1755/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:50) - Kenosha, WI
(16:50) – Middle East update
(40:02) – EU future
(50:40) – Egypt, the UAE, etc
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Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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What’s in a name? (North Korea edition)
26 februari 2024 · 44 min
Jacob welcomes Rodger back onto the podcast to talk about North Korea’s recent decision to call South Korea by its official name – as well as its abandonment of reunification as its most important geopolitical goal. They explore the potential ramifications of that for North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, before thinking through scenarios for the Korean peninsula in the context of U.S. elections. They close with Rodger’s thoughts on demographics, democratization of military tech, and the Arctic. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:05) - North Korea
(13:10) – South Korea
(18:30) – Nuclear proliferation/
(23:15) – Internal DPRK dynamics
(29:29) - U.S. election scenarios
(33:38) – DPRK v ROK war
(35:47) – Rodger’s macro view
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Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax adv…
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The Horseradish Capital of the World
23 februari 2024 · 1 uur
Jacob hits the road and brings perspectives on geopolitics and markets from the point of view of Eau Claire WI, formerly Sawdust City, home of Bon Iver, the once mighty U.S. tire industry…and the biggest horseradish producer around. Rob and Jacob discuss the U.S. tire industry and the lessons its demise poses for geopolitics and markets, before backing into conversations about China, U.S. trade policy, NVIDIA HYPE, and human capital. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:30)– Eau Claire, WI
(04:30) – Tires
(24:15) – China and Mexico
(30:03) – Trump's U.S. trade policy + semis
(43:37)– Human capital
(51:00) – Quick global roundup
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Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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Making Astrology Respectable
16 februari 2024 · 52 min
Jacob and Rob take a victory lap on higher-than-expected U.S. inflation. They tackle a listener-submitted question about where Chinese deflation might affect the U.S., and explore the political impact of inflation/deflation and both the U.S. and China. They close with a brief survey of geopolitical risks in the world going unnoticed as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and the Chinese economy crowd out the space for headlines. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:17) - Inflation
(11:34) - Political Side of Inflation
(23:57) - Is China in deflation?
(45:25) - Venezuela x Guyana
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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Extrapolating Doom
9 februari 2024 · 58 min
Rob is busy trying to get French citizenship, so favorite-guest Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro joins the podcast to talk U.S. macro, oil and natural gas prices, and how to think about investing in a world of doom & gloom. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:45) – U.S. macro
(09:26) – Oil
(20:15) – NatGas
(27:55) – U.S. v. Intl | Hong Kong/China
(41:35) – Extrapolating doom: Egypt and Pakistan
(49:10) – Bitcoin
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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Dams and the Rio Grande
7 februari 2024 · 42 min
Caroline Eaton Tracey joins the podcast to offer a thoughtful perspective on the Rio Grande River based on her recent article in The New York Review of Books. After discussing how dams on the river supported by the Mexican and U.S. governments have changed local communities and endangered natural ecosystems, they turn to Caroline’s new research interest and the topic of her forthcoming book: Salt Lakes. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
Caroline’s website – https://cetracey.com/
Stopping the Old Rio Grande – https://www.nybooks.com/online/2024/01/11/stopping-the-old-rio-grande/
Climate change and the Rio Grande – https://e360.yale.edu/features/warming-and-drought-take-a-toll-on-the-once-mighty-rio-grande
Satellite images of the Rio Grande – https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150244/rio-grande-runs-dry-then-wet
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Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, ta…
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Confusion
3 februari 2024 · 52 min
Better late than never! Jacob was on the road this week so instead of recording on Thursday they had to record on Friday. The theme of the episode might be confusion – confusion over the narrative on the U.S. economy, on oil prices, on natural gas prices, and even on the future of Ukraine. There are more questions than answers in this episode during a surprisingly pivotal week in geopolitics. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(04:45) - US Economy
(14:05) – Middle East
(24:00) – Oil
(35:50)– Natural gas
(42:12) – Ukraine
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Referenced in the Show:
Link to affective polarization article: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/09/05/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-united-states-what-research-says-pub-90457
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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The Blood of the Martyrs
30 januari 2024 · 52 min
Jacob welcomes Farzam back onto the podcast – and they have a great deal to discuss, not least of which is the death of three U.S. soldiers in a drone attack by a group supported by Iran. Jacob and Farzam dive past the headlines and talk about what the consequences of the attack will be, whether Iran was behind it, and what Iran’s strategic thinking is in the region more generally, and especially in relation to Oct. 7 and the Red Sea shipping disruptions. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:00) - What happened with the attack in Jordan?
(11:24) - Who was behind the attack? Was it Iran?
(20:26) - Chances for a regional war/Iran’s red lines
(31:00) – What does Iran want and how will it affect Red Sea shipping
(41:08) – Iran-China relations
(46:00) – Iran’s domestic politics
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult yo…
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What's Happening (Right Now) With the Weather?
29 januari 2024 · 53 min
Jacob welcomes weather expert Daryl Ritchison back on the podcast to discuss his 2023 hits and misses, his 2024 outlook, and to dive deep into questions of El Nino, weather history, and the riskiest places in the world to live. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:24) – 2023 in review
(07:56) – El Niño and the MEI
(14:24) – 2024 Outlook: North America
(26:35) – Buoys tangent
(31:18) - 2024 Outlook: South America
(35:00) – Pacific Decadel Oscillation/Dust Bowl
(44:00) – Most/Least riskiest places in the world to live
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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Friction
26 januari 2024 · 59 min
Jacob and Rob power through a difficult week to offer insights on how Chinese industrial policy is shaping the world. They explore how the semiconductor industry was buoyed by Chinese demand last year and express doubts about whether the good times will continue to roll in 2024. They talk about Chinese EVs, the proliferation of risk (and how to think about it from both a professional and investment perspective) before closing by parsing some interesting data about renewable energy capacity and what it might say about energy prices toward the end of the decade. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:45) - Semiconductors
(13:05) - How the government assesses risk
(27:19) – EVs
(41:02) – Energy/Batteries/Solar
(45:00) - Chinese capital controls and the Chinese stock market
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your att…
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Trouble in the Red Sea, logistics snarls, China, and the U.S. election
22 januari 2024 · 24 min
Crosspost with Sean Hanney's Frontlines from RealAgriculture! Lees meer
Up for discussion in this episode:
Skirmish in the Red Sea — the U.S. is working to stop Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the shipping lane
Logistics are definitely impacted, but is it as big a deal as it could be?
There’s many players in the mix, and much to unpack on this one
Taiwan’s election is done. Does it make relations with China better or worse and why does it matter?
Speaking of elections, what about Argentina?
China/Argentina trade
On to America! The U.S. election set for November is going to be a wild ride
It doesn’t matter who wins, either way, it’s going to have a huge impact on geopolitics
The outcome of the U.S. election will be a major factor in shaping
geopolitical instability and volatility in the coming year, Shapiro says
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment…
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What the Media Missed This Week
19 januari 2024 · 58 min
Jacob and Rob tackle conflicting narratives about oil prices before diving deep into geopolitical and market issues in China and France. They close by addressing some user-submitted questions on the Red Sea and on the stories that are not discussed enough by the mainstream media. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:10) - Present and Future of Oil
(19:15) - China/Taiwan
(37:25)– France
(42:49) – Listener Q&A – Red Sea
(49:45) – Q&A – Under the radar
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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Retrospectives and Predictions for the Ukraine War
16 januari 2024 · 51 min
Sim returns to the podcast to talk about the successes and failures of Ukraine’s military forces and what the future looks like in the Russia-Ukraine war. From there they spend a bit of time talking about the Red Sea and Black Swans that might impact 2024 and beyond. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:40) – 2023 Russia-Ukraine War Retrospective
(15:15) – 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Predictions
(33:00) – Red Sea/Sahel/KSA oh my
(40:20) – Black Swans
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CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor