Alle afleveringen
350 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
-
Cocaine and the Catholic Church
12 januari 2024 · 1 uur 1 min
Jacob and Rob take a deeper look at a recent World Bank study that purports to show how countries can increase investment…and in so doing reduce poverty and inequality. They tease out some of the assumptions the report makes but also point out how to think about the countries that will succeed in a multipolar world. They also check in on a few geopolitical hotspots: the Red Sea, Ecuador, and Germany…before a mea culpa about Ethiopian Airlines. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:14) - Red Sea Update
(14:00) - The World Bank
(24:40) - Let's talk about state institutions
(32:43) - Multipolarity, protectionism, & the destabilizing influence of unchecked capital flows
(40:53) - Germany
(45:50)- Ecuador: What cocaine and the Catholic Church have in common
(54:07) - USA, USA, USA
--
Referenced in the Show:
Protectionism: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/data-trends/protectionism-trade-restrictions-reach-an-alltime-high-82637
2023 Global Cocaine Report:
https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/cocaine/Global_cocaine_report_2023.pdf
World Bank 2024 Economic Prospects: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7a21a380-5c54-4a8d-9c54-22180abb1adb/content
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are proper…
-
What's Happening in the DRC?
8 januari 2024 · 1 uur 8 min
Ben Shepherd joins Jacob to talk about the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ben urges listeners to think and look beyond the endless stories about violence in the DRC and instead to note, however, halting and fragile, the progress the country has made in the last 20 years and its potential in the future. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:36) – History and geography of the DRC
(15:15) - Why is it shaped that way?
(21:48) – Breakdown of Congolese misgovernance
(28:26) - Violence in the eastern DRC
(42:26) – Recent elections and the future
--
Referenced in the Show:
Ben’s recent article on DRC elections: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/01/drcs-election-was-halting-step-towards-embedding-democracy
Map of Congo: https://alearningfamily.com/main/wp-content/uploads/DemRepCongoPhysical.jpg
King Leopold’s Ghost: https://www.amazon.com/King-Leopolds-Ghost-Heroism-Colonial/dp/0618001905
Bourdain episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k59ToTXOuuE
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or…
-
We're Worried About the Middle East
5 januari 2024 · 53 min
Smoke rises from the Red Sea. The hour grows late and Rob calls Jacob seeking his counsel. For that is why you have come, is it not…our old friends? If you like the Lord of the Rings, you got that joke. If you didn’t, what’s wrong with you? Welcome to the return of the Cognitive Dissidents podcast in 2024, with Jacob and Rob relatively downbeat about both markets and geopolitics to start off the year. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(01:00) – Market expectations
(11:24) - Is the good economy just luck?
(18:22) – Chinese economy
(27:30) – The Red Sea
(43:15) – What's next for the world?
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Here's Looking At You, Dad
22 december 2023 · 28 min
Jacob returns with a few thoughts about family, love, and geopolitics. Lees meer
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Cybersecurity + Geopolitics (Matt Pines)
15 december 2023 · 45 min
Last week of reruns! Jacob Shapiro will be back next week with a full update on his situation and what to expect moving forward. Thank you so so so so much for being so patient with us! In the meantime, we have a fantastic episode with Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere. Matt breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity. Lees meer
Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00)
(01:27) - Cyberwarfare
(20:10) - 5G + China + Huawei
(28:00) - 34:44 - Trust Networks
(34:20) - Has there ever been a full-on cyber war?
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or t…
-
The Art of Geopolitics with Stratfor
8 december 2023 · 45 min
Rodger Baker and Jacob Shapiro sit down for a discussion about the art and science of doing good geopolitics. Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:23) - Mackinder and the Arctic
(24:36) - The Art of the Net Assessment
(34:30) - The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come
(41:44) - Will China invade Taiwan?
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Okay But... What IS Geopolitics?
1 december 2023 · 52 min
Today we have a classic Perch Pod episode with Phil Kelly. Phil’s a Professor at Emporia State University. He is the author of Classical Geopolitics which is one of the five books Jacob has assigned almost every geopolitical analyst he has ever trained. He and Jacob talk about the definition and intention of Geopolitics and delve into the Geopolitics of Latin America. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(01:10) - Intro
(04:47) - Why Geopolitics?
(07:18) - What is Geopolitics?
(25:19) - Geopolitics of the “Three Americas”
(47:16) - Mexico + South America- Discussing Immigration and Climate Change
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Remapping Global Supply Chains
28 november 2023 · 51 min
Rachel Ziemba makes her debut on the podcast to discuss what you missed at APEC while everyone was focused on Xi and Biden, prospects for growth in Venezuelan oil production, and why the market might be a little too sanguine about oil prices in 2024. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:51) – Argentina
(05:58) – Indonesia/APEC
(16:09) – Venezuela
(26:10) – Dark underbelly of the economy
(31:51) – Iran
(39:00) – Oil
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Strategic Intelligence Lessons for Decision-Makers
24 november 2023 · 42 min
Jacob pops onto Emre Doğru's Youtube show, Strategy Floor to discuss how Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Hama,s attack, the common mistakes in strategic intelligence analysis and forecasting, and managerial lessons for decision-makers. Lees meer
--
Referenced in the Show:
Emre's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xJA7wKNtJY
Emre's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ceyhunemredogru
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
President Javier Milei
20 november 2023 · 23 min
Jacob Shapiro fires up the hot-take factory to give you some fresh, piping-hot analysis of Javier Milei’s surprise landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential elections. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Javier Milei
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Demystifying Chips, US-China Relations, & Intellectual Property
20 november 2023 · 1 uur
Jacob welcomes Paul Triolo onto the podcast for a nuanced treatment of the relationship between geopolitics and technology – in the context of U.S.-China relations, in the context of multipolar geopolitics, in the context of artificial intelligence, and how all these things are affecting the semiconductor industry in particular. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:02) – Current perceptions of deglobalization
(07:02) - Current reality of deglobalization
(15:15) - Is IP ever safe?
(24:01) - Semiconductors & AI & China
(30:08) - The trajectory of US/China relations
(39:40) - What's next for semiconductor production?
(47:20) - Geopolitical competition and the future of tech
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Playing Golf (Probably) Won’t Make You a Better Investor
18 november 2023 · 53 min
Jacob and Rob gather for a chat about the big Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of APEC and what it means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Then they turn to passive v. active investing – and explain why playing golf won’t make you a better investor. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:30) - U.S-China relations
(32:04) - Investing
--
Referenced in the Show:
Fight in the Senate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO9fnjshHvg
Chinese readout: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202311/t20231116_11181442.html
US readout: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/15/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-2/
Tweet: https://x.com/MebFaber/status/1722409650380005859?s=20
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your …
-
The Implosion of Ukraine
13 november 2023 · 50 min
Jacek and Jacob brave illness to reunite on the podcast. Jacek offers a gloomy perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war, an optimistic perspective on Poland’s future no matter who rules its government – and a lesson to learn for the democratic world from Turkish pragmatism. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:52) - Polish elections
(09:00) - Will Ukraine be a part of EU/NATO?
(14:27) - Russia-Ukraine war
(20:45) - Can Ukraine produce their own ammunition?
(22:45) - Nuclear proliferation
(28:00) - Russia-Ukraine war
(29:16) - What's next for Poland/Polish awakening
(40:05) - Turkey in relation to Poland/Ukraine
(44:43) - Israeli's lack of strategic depth
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Something Rotten In The State of Ukraine
10 november 2023 · 41 min
Jacob is on the road and Rob is fresh off earnings season but that doesn’t stop them from churning out a pod on life’s most persistent questions. They explore the demise of a nuclear project in the U.S. and what it means for the U.S. energy economy, Jacob comes clean about feeling pessimistic about Ukraine, and Rob talks about credit quality issues in the U.S. economy. It’s not all doom & gloom though – Brazil continues to shine. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:07) – Nuclear problems in the US
(15:30) – Brazil updates
(22:15) - Troubles for Ukraine
(32:50) – Credit problems
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Nile to Negev: Hafsa Halawa’s Take on Regional Turmoil
8 november 2023 · 1 uur
Come for Hafsa Halawa’s deep insight on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a regional point of view. Stay for her insight on the Sudanese civil war, the future of the Egyptian and Ethiopian states, and how everything in the region is interconnected. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:00) -9:35 – Regional considerations
(11:30) – Israel's perspective and strategic goals
(19:04) – Egypt, Jordan and the reinvigoration of Palestinian politics
(7:57) – Palestinian perspective
(38:22) – Sudan’s civil war
(48:40) – Egypt's spiraling situation
(53:46) – Ethiopia's civil war
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Hard Times in the 21st Century w/ Helen Thompson
6 november 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University joins the podcast to talk about her recent book. She traces three histories – geopolitical, economic, and democratic – to explain how the world reached its current level of disorder and why she sees hard times on the horizon. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:55) - Book Summary
(06:30) - Dealing with a changing landscape
(12:09) - Understanding Putin's motivations/US Energy
(17:30) - Suez Crisis and Germany and Energy
(25:11) - What's next for Germany and the EU?
(33:24) - Turkey
(39:08) - Economic nationhood
(43:54) - Inflation and monetary policy
(54:37) - Are democratic or authoritarian regimes more efficient?
(59:00) - Future of the UK
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Monopolies and Innovation
3 november 2023 · 54 min
Jacob and Rob break down the Jerome's latest Fed announcement, inventory and manufacturing cycles, China's interesting new approach to semiconductors, and the inherent danger of monopolistic industries. They venture into the auto world and discuss recent issues with scaling up EV production, before turning to macro-trends and the geopolitical trends (in Mexico, Israel, and Saudi Arabia) that are driving CI's macro strategy. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:23) - The Fed/Rates
(07:31) - Global cycles
(11:54) - China's new semiconductor
(13:54) - Monopolies and innovation
(22:15) - EV demand and production
(32:31) - CI's macro moves and geopolitics
(36:34) - Mexico, risk, and manufacturing
(43:00) - Suadi Arabia, war, and oil
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or …
-
The Worst Is Over for Argentina?
30 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 17 min
Jacob welcomes Elohim and Ignacio back on the podcast for a much more upbeat discussion about Argentina’s future in light of last week’s surprising triumph for Sergio Massa against the chainsaw-wielding libertarian Javier Milei. They also address recent changes in U.S. policy toward Venezuela – and explain why the country may be reaching a critical juncture. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:30) – Argentina election results
(10:04) – What is Peronism?
(17:34) – The role of social media
(26:11)) – Milei’s chances in the next round
(42:35) – The role of the military
(51:15) – What happens next?
(56:54) – Venezuela
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Don’t Trust The Gurus
27 oktober 2023 · 56 min
Jacob and Rob offer thoughts about U.S. macro out-performance and some concerning signals coming out of Europe. From there, they offer some thoughts about CI’s unique approach to using geopolitics in the context of investing. They close with thoughts about the life-cycle of analysts and investors and a cautionary tale about guru-syndrome. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:55) - US Macro
(08:20) - US consumers are doing well??
(12:10) - Economy is good, so why is Joe's rating bad??
(15:15) - Migration surge at US border
(17:25) - Immigration trends
(24:00) - Europe Updates
(32:53) – Geopolitics and investing
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Uncertainty and Ideology
20 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 10 min
Jacob and Rob get introspective and take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the newsflow recently to talk about the rise of uncertainty, the importance of what you choose to pay attention to, and the impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. Along the way they talk about U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, the future of Mexico, and more. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(3:35) - Attention and Uncertainty
(12:55) - Fear and Uncertainty
(17:50) - Why are markets so unstable right now?
(25:33) - The Law of Unintended Consequences
(36:00) - Are we headed in a good direction?
(41:08) - Does a multi-polar world increase the importance of ideology and preferences relative to constraints?
(56:25) - Ideologies are malleable at the moment
(01:02:05) - How do we apply these concept in investment?
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, st…
-
Turkey’s Perspective
17 oktober 2023 · 32 min
Jacob welcomes Emre Dogru back on to the podcast to discuss Turkey’s view of the violence happening in the Middle East. Emre takes a break from eating baklava to explain why he thinks the violence spiraling out of control is unlikely at this point – but he and Jacob explore scenarios for escalation that could prove this view wrong. Jacob will be appearing in a video on Emre’s channel next week on the concept of intelligence failures and lessons to learn for executives – we’ll be sure to share it with you when it comes out. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:41) – Turkey’s view of the war
(09:54) – Turkey and Iran: Frenemies 4 lyfe
(12:20) - Turkey in a regional war
(16:45) – Turkey, energy, Saudi Arabia
(19:23) - Prospects for regional war
(26:49) – Turkey-China
(28:25) – What if the conflict spills?
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strateg…
-
The Future of the Post-Soviet World
16 oktober 2023 · 53 min
Jacob welcomes Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, to discuss all things post-soviet: wtf is going on in the Western Balkans, prospects for Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU, whether Azerbaijan will stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and the many intersecting interests of Central Asia. From there they discuss China and what lessons China may have learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine re: Taiwan. They also make a global plea for more Georgian food, plz and thx. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:14) – Serbia/Kosovo
(06:08) - Ukraine/Russia
(19:07) – The South Caucasus
(31:36) – Central Asia
(41:05) - end – China
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Fraying World Order - Intrigue Outloud Crosspost
14 oktober 2023 · 47 min
On today's Intrigue Outloud, Ethan is joined by Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, to break down the latest from the conflict in Israel and Gaza, and to consider what the fighting tells us about the state of the world order. Thanks to our sponsor, Millennium Space Systems. Lees meer
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
What You Missed During the War
13 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
Jacob and Rob join forces to catch you up on all the important geopolitical and market developments that the Israel-Palestine war has obscured. They tackle carnage in the U.S. bond market and some very worrying developments in the Chinese economy. From there, they briefly explore gold as an investment opportunity as well as the profile of a good emerging market investment, before closing with thoughts on energy markets. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:02) – U.S. Treasuries
(11:14) - Government spending increases... an issue??
(14:15) – China’s treadmill to hell
(20:45) - What is recapitalization?
(24:00) - China's banking consolidation
(25:46) - Can China use ForEx to wipe out their liabilities?
(28:00) - Gold
(34:34) - Emerging markets -> Chile
(38:55) - Emerging markets -> Turkey
(45:45) - Emerging markets -> Argentina
(47:00) – Oil and natural gas
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular i…
-
This Time Is Different
12 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 7 min
Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian war. They explore regional considerations, Iran’s role and motive behind supporting Hamas, and consider scenarios for what could happen next. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:05) - Hamas' tradecraft
(11:42) - Iran and the West Bank
(19:00) - How does this affect the image of Hamas and Iran?
(28:17) - What is next for Iran?
(34:55) - Does Israel go after Hezbollah?
(40:40) - Joe Biden's next steps
(45:44) - Where is Turkey in all of this?
(51:00) - Egypt's role in this crisis
(55:51) - The Muslim world's take
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Not The Worst It Can Be: An Israeli Perspective
11 oktober 2023 · 50 min
Jacob welcomes Israeli geopolitical analyst Nitzan David Fuchs to offer an Israeli perspective on the terrible events of the past few days and the difficult weeks ahead. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:15) - Israel's intelligence failure
(08:15) - Israel/Hamas situation update
(10:20) – Hamas’s intentions
(17:08) - Is Iran behind this?
(22:12) - What are Israel's strategic goals?
(29:33) - How do hostages fit into the situation?
(36:00) - How long does Israel have to accomplish its goals?
(38:59) - How will this affect Israel's relationships with Arab neighbors?
--
Referenced in the Show:
Nitzan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/nitzandfux
Substack: https://nitzangreatgame.substack.com
Great Game Pod: https://greatgame.blog
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Settling Scores
9 oktober 2023 · 1 uur 26 min
Cousin Marko is back at long last – he and Jacob discuss why U.S. elections are the most important thing in the world geopolitically and all the myriad ways a multipolar world is influencing the balance of power and investment decisions. They close with the best basketball analysis you’ll find anywhere in the U.S. YEAH WE SAID IT! Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:00) – U.S. Elections
(16:53) – Score settling in geopolitics
(31:35) – Europe x China relations
(43:47) – Ideologies under multipolarity
(50:45) - China and the U.S./investment implications
(1:00:25) – Over/Under
(1:06:54)-end – Basketball
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
The First Israeli-Palestinian War
8 oktober 2023 · 29 min
Jacob is in the middle of Mississippi without his fancy microphone, but that doesn’t stop him from recording a reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s declaration of war in response. Jacob tries to compartmentalize the politics and emotion of the situation – a nearly impossible task – to explain what is going on at both a local and regional level and what this escalation in violence will mean. Lees meer
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
-
Opium War Lessons (For Fentanyl)
6 oktober 2023 · 54 min
Jacob and Rob are on the same continent for a change! They try to make sense of recent volatility in oil prices and take a victory lap on being ahead of the curve on the bloodbath in bond markets. From there, they explore the U.S.-Mexico-China love triangle and what history can and can’t teach us about the future of those three countries. Last but not least is Ukraine’s quest to become the Israel of Eastern Europe and whether Kyiv can produce weapons for itself in sufficient quality and quantity to maintain its counteroffensive against Russia. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:06) - Oil/Crude
(07:11) - Macro Context/Bond carnage
(16:47) - US x Mexico x China relations
(30:45) - Is the US reliving Chinese history with fentanyl
(40:50) - Migration and coordination
(45:00) - Ukraine wants to build its own weapons
--
Referenced in the Show:
The Third Opium War – https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2019-issue-no-13/the-third-opium-war
CRS backgrounder on U.S.-Mexico relations – https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42917.pdf
--
CI Site: cognitive.investments
Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and …
-
Agriculture x Geopolitics (RealAgriculture Crosspost)
2 oktober 2023 · 37 min
Jacob Shapiro and Shaun Haney unpack the India-Canada diplomatic nightmare of the last few weeks and how the Ukraine/Russia war might end. Lees meer
Link to RealAg Post: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/09/frontlines-national-interests-vs-ideology-indian-separatism-and-western-support-for-ukraine/
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
The Politics of Hope
29 september 2023 · 49 min
Jacob and Rob dive into some key macro developments – and why they confirm some of CI’s contrarian investment theses. From there, they discuss recent problems in the European Union and Mitsubishi Motor’s decision to leave China, before doing a rapid-fire set of topics to close the podcast. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:20) - Macro Overview
(19:20) – EU problems
(25:20) - No optimism in EU
(36:06) – Japan automakers leave China
(40:15) - 4 interesting events
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Hope is the Last Thing that Dies
25 september 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Jacob welcomes Daniel Stelter to the podcast to begin his research process into the future of the German economy with a sober conversation with an expert who thinks Germany is a long-term short. Dr. Stelter's take differs greatly from the one we take at CI, and we really enjoyed hearing his perspective on the future of Germany. Lees meer
Dr. Stelter is the founder of the German Discussion Forum Beyond the Obvious (www.think-beyondtheobvious.com), focusing on strategic and macroeconomic issues. He has written several books, mostly in German.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(05:00) - Why are you pessimistic about Germany?
(06:04) - Germany's demographic problems
(09:35) – Germany’s education problems
(14:00) - Germany's energy problems
(19:39) - Why is Germany failing in education?
(25:00) - Why pessimist about German demographic trends ?
(37:00) - “Deindustrialization” and other fairy tales
(44:49) - How bad will things get?
(53:33) - How to fix Germany?
(57:16) - A few thoughts on the future of the EU
--
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
Jacob Website: https://jacobshapiro.com
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
www.think-beyondtheobvious.com
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into…
-
Why Should I Care About Nagorno-Karabakh?
22 september 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
Jacob continues to fight through a cold to bring you the geopolitical content you know and love. His weekly chat with Rob starts off with Brazil – and why an interest rate cut in Brazil should matter a big deal from an investment point of view. From there, they touch on the top developments of the week in the South Caucasus and Ukraine before philosophizing on Canada-India relations. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:20) - Snot
(02:02) - Brazil cut interest rates
(11:11) - Brazil/US real estate liquidity
(16:37) - Interest rates, commodities, manufacturing in China
(22:51) - Nagorno-Karabakh
(30:18) - How weak is Russia? What's next?
(33:05) - Why should I care about Nagorno-Karabakh?
(38:44) - Ukrainian Worries
(46:00) - India and Canada
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
The Pitfalls of Green Energy Policies
15 september 2023 · 48 min
Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:24) –German Industrialization
(06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics
(22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0
(39:28) - China’s tech resilience
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
50 Years Since Allende - An Update on Chile
11 september 2023 · 48 min
Jacob welcomes Dr. Robert Funk onto the podcast to discuss how Chile has changed over the last 50 years, and more importantly how it will change over the next 10. They briefly explore the legacy of the coup against Allende before exploring why Chile has always been a little bit different than the rest of Latin America…and whether Chile can avoid being caught between great power competition in the years ahead. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:27) - The legacy of the Allende coup
(08:33) - Chile's development
(12:35) - Chile’s constitutional process
(15:50) - Another social explosion?
(18:00) - Is Chile a good investment?
(22:50) - Why does Chile have strong institutions?
(27:00) - Chile’s global position (energy, trade, politics)
(31:42) - China's attractiveness to Chile
(34:20) - Chile’s regional geopolitics
(39:30) – Chile’s future
(42:00) - Ideological and political choices
(43:50) - Will Chileans ever feel like the coup was justified?
--
Links:
Dr Funk’s article: https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/fifty-years-later-he-haunts-us-still/
Christopher Hitchens article: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v24/n13/christopher-hitchens/11-september-1973
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaime…
-
The Modern Geopolitics of Turkey
8 september 2023 · 43 min
Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state. Lees meer
Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkey
Jacob’s report is only available for CI clients. Email jacob@cognitive.investments to discuss access.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:35) – Istanbul v Ankara
(06:35) - Turkey's Economy
(14:00) - Turkish Coalitions
(17:10) - Turkey and Russia
(22:27) – Turkey and NATO
(27:30) - Turkey and China
(30:35) - Erdogan's Policy
(32:15) - Turkey and the Middle East
(38:00) - Predictions
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Japan: A Story of Stagnation and Change
4 september 2023 · 53 min
Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!) Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:00) - Migration
(06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside
(10:15) - Stagnation in Japan
(15:43) - Japanese/Chinese relations
(21:50) - South China Sea
(28:42) - Chinese military vs. Japanese military
(32:40) - Japan and the Korean Peninsula
(38:40) - North Korea
(42:11) - Japan and India/Southeast Asia
(46:30) - Canada
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
The Depreciable Life of Information
1 september 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:32) - How to think about information
(13:15) - The challenges of information overload
(19:11) - Participating in the media environment
(24:50) - Healthy skepticism
(26:30) - Journalism
(33:00) - Information gathering tactics
(39:00) - The human brain, aging, and information
(48:00) - The refraction of old models
(52:40) - The value of being a contrarian
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Hope and Change in Latin America
28 augustus 2023 · 53 min
Jacob welcomes back Elohim Monard to the podcast – who brings with him fellow Latin America expert Igancio Asis. They discuss the momentous political events in Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador over the past week and set the stage for deeper conversations in the future about the role of criminal enterprises in Latin American politics, whether Argentina can ever really change, and the future of China in the region, among other things. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:00) – Guatemalan Elections
(14:44) – Argentinian Elections
(40:40) – Ecuador
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
WTF Happened to Prigozhin?!
25 augustus 2023 · 21 min
Jacob fires up the hot-take machine to confront the news about Prigozhin’s death head on, before doing a brief tour of the world to give listeners a “global sitrep” before he heads out on vacation. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:55) – Prigozhin
(08:06) – BRICS
(12:00) – India
(14:52) – Ethiopia
(15:52) – Guatemala
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Superconductors and The Future of Fusion
21 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 6 min
Jacob Shapiro welcomes Myles Stapelberg, a member of CI’s Innovation Advisory Board, back onto the podcast to discuss the news about the “discovery” of a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. From there, the pivot to developments in nuclear fusion over the past 6 months and some of the challenges and opportunities in the fusion space – a subject bereft with lofty promises, sensationalism…but also real progress. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:32) - What is a superconductor?
(12:00) - What is LK99?
(14:40) - Fake superconductor claims
(19:00) - Is LK99 significant?
(22:30) - Prospects for a usable room temp superconductor
(25:45) - New developments in fusion 22:03
(30:00) - Diving into fusion technology
(36:33) - Helion x Microsoft partnership
(44:40) - Will we see fusion reactors within our lifetime?
(53:00) - Which country is developing fusion the fastest?
(57:25) - Can we stop using fossil fuels altogether?
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Call Me “Jake Solo” 😏
18 augustus 2023 · 20 min
Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice! Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections
(03:36) – Panama Canal
(04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria
(08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh
(09:39) – Wheat
(12:29) – China
(16:00) – Germany
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Canadian Beef (RealAg Crosspost)
14 augustus 2023 · 28 min
Jacob is featured on RealAg Radio with Shaun Haney! They'll dig into China’s economic and social standing and what Russia might do next. You’ll also hear from Joyce Parslow, with Canada Beef, on new culture, lifestyle, health and wellness information programs launched for Canadian beef AND a spotlight interview with Tom Barrie of Koch Ag Services on comparing nitrogen stabilizers. Lees meer
Check out RealAg Radio here: https://www.realagriculture.com/category/realag-radio/
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
The Pain of Deglobalization
11 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 16 min
Chase pinch hits for Rob in CI’s weekly update with Jacob. Chase offers a sober take on inflation, before Jacob and Chase explain their bullishness on natural gas and energy in general for the rest of the year. They close with an examination of Japan’s recent moves – and explore how deglobalization is affecting both Japan and China in tandem. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(01:20) - Inflation
(10:08) - Jerome's Take
(15:05) - Chinese Deflation
(20:00) - Higher Commodities
(22:30) - Natural Gas
(33:50) - Coal
(42:00) - Cannabis
(43:40) - Telecom and 5G
(45:16) - Japan Update
(56:13) - China and Japan's Relationship
(01:00:30) - China's Economy
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Colonialism 2.0 - The Scramble for Africa
10 augustus 2023 · 1 uur
Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to pick up where he and Jacob left off a month ago: about the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. Sim and Jacob discuss the nitty-gritty of the security situation and how it raises disturbing opportunities for radicalized jihadist voices in the region. From there, they wax philosophical about whether Africa is facing a new era of colonialism and how to approach the broader challenges facing the region, before closing with some brief thoughts on Russia and Ukraine. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(02:00) – Military intervention in Niger
(05:00) - If there is an intervention in Niger- who?
(09:00) - Regional Interests and jihadist opportunities
(12:00) - Realistic interventions
(18:00) - How do you contextualize this in the larger Saheli context?
(25:30) - Does this matter for the world?
(31:40) - What are Russia and China thinking?
(35:20) - Neocolonialism 2.0
(41:46) - Chinese Interests
(47:25) - Should we intervene in Niger?
(55:00 - Russia-Ukraine Update
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & sp…
-
Niger’s Coup
9 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Paul Melly joins the podcast for the first time to offer some much-needed insightful analysis on the developing political situation inside of Niger and the Sahel in general. Jacob and Paul discuss the coup itself and why it looks like the junta is here to stay. They discuss the myriad external actors – France, the U.S., Nigeria, ECOWAS, China, Russia, the EU and Algeria, to name just a few – and how they are thinking about the situation. Paul closes with his best guess on what happens next. Lees meer
Saheli Map - https://cdn.britannica.com/44/241344-050-084F77EE/Locator-map-Sahel.jpg
WSJ Article - https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/03/mohamed-bazoum-coup-niger-democracy/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:40) - Paul's background
(09:00) - Niger Coup Recap
(20:00) - How stable is the region or new regime?
(29:08) - External actor interest
(44:00) - What happens next?
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Aliens
7 augustus 2023 · 1 uur 12 min
Jacob welcomes Matt Pines back onto the podcast to follow through on his promise to have a serious and rigorous conversation about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Matt and Jacob briefly address U.S.-China relations before addressing the controversial recent Congressional hearings about UAPs and exploring the political developments around UAPs and non-human, extraterrestrial life. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:26) - U.S.-China cyber relations
(09:26) - Is the US actively targeting China via cyber attacks?
(12:30) – Politics of aliens
(18:26) - Plausible Deniability?
(30:10) - Why is there US bipartisan support for alien investigations?
(36:40) – Do aliens exist?
(49:19) – What does it mean if they do?
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Course Correction: China, Brazil, Turkey + More
4 augustus 2023 · 54 min
Jacob and Rob are back at it for a weekly chat. They discuss disturbing news out of China that supports Rob’s pessimism in recent months and cuts against some of Jacob’s more optimistic thoughts. From there, they check in on Brazil and its interest rate cut and what the media is getting wrong about that, before closing with some thoughts on Argentina, Turkey, India, and a rapid fire discussion of important points that are not getting enough attention. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(01:21) - Disturbing News out of China
(06:13) - Chinese Rocket Force
(09:22) - Chinese stimulus
(13:17) - China's power base
(20:00) - Entrepreneurship in China
(24:04) - Brazil's Central Bank cut rates
(29:55) - Is there any hope for Argentina's economy?
(33:55) - Turkish Monetary Policy
(40:27) - Turkey is under Gulf influence
(43:11) - Does India want to get close to the West?
(48:30) - Room temperature superconductors?
(49:09) - West African Security
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the …
-
Western Mining Tech is 40 Years Behind
28 juli 2023 · 42 min
Jacob welcomes back Tomás Villalón Jr onto the Cognitive Dissidents Podcast. They deliver insights on what elements are truly rare (you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out which!), why China has such a dominant position in gallium and germanium, and tackle the mania over lithium…before turning a little philosophical and laying out the challenges facing particularly democratic governments in increasing production of critical minerals in the years to come. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:00) - What elements are ACTUALLY rare?
(11:00) - Can gallium mining be profitable in the US?
(14:44) - Chinese rare earth export controls (Gallium & Germanium)
(16:44) - Is Lithium just a current boom/bust cycle?
(21:45) - When will the US start approving more domestic mines? Does Democracy gum up our ability to mine freely?
(24:15) - Is China on the cutting edge of mining technology? Can the US catch up?
(27:35) - What are the ramifications of multipolarity on mining?
(31:00) - Is cutting dependence on China all talk? What will disruption look like?
(35:10) - Will PGM controls stall US technological progress?
(37:15) - Vertical integrations of mines into companies (think Tesla)
(38:20) - Semiconductors are beginning to vertically integrate
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make…
-
Is The Weather Getting Worse?
24 juli 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Jacob Shapiro is rejoined by Daryl Ritchison for a reality check on the importance of El Nino in the larger atmospheric setting. They discuss whether weather (see what I did there?) is actually getting worse relative to historical averages and preview what the forecast ahead looks like for North America and Europe. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:00) - Is the weather actually getting worse?
(07:16) - North American weather predictions
(14:00) - Weather expectations for the rest of 2023
(22:00) – What is El Niño and Niña?
(26:30) - Are we transitioning into El Niño?
(27:50) - How long to El Niño's last?
(31:12) - Long-term ramifications of El Nino
(35:50) - Larger weather trends?
(40:00) - 10 year forecast
(51:00) - Preventing another Dust Bowl
(53:00) - Europe forecast
(58:00) - Will Europe be warmer and wetter?
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.