Alle afleveringen
350 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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EVs Are Not the Future
22 juli 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Jacob and Rob catch up on Rob’s trip to Ireland this week and why it might presage new migration issues in Europe. From there they turn to the narrative about electric vehicles and why they are not the glittering solution they are made out to be, before diving deep into the U.S.-China relationship and checking on where China is on the treadmill to hell. Closing thoughts on wheat and natural gas. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:15) - Ireland Check-In
(09:40) - Migration Flows and the European Union
(18:01) - Brazil's EV Transition
(31:12) - China and EV's
(36:46) - China's Future
(44:11) - Consumption is the key to recovery in China?
(47:20) - China and US relations thawing?
(56:00) - Wheat and LNG
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-19/why-brazil-is-falling-behind-in-the-electric-car-transition
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Black Sea Grain Collapse
20 juli 2023 · 26 min
Jacob offers some thoughts on Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and analysis on Russia’s threats to bomb ships headed for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. This collapse affects developing countries He closes with possible scenarios going forward and explains what this means for wheat prices and other grains. Lees meer
We will post our regular Weekly Update with Rob on Saturday, 7/22!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:34) - Black Sea Grain Deal Collapse Summary
(04:10) - Who does this affect?
(07:30) - Sunflower oil importers
(10:33) - Putin's twisted logic
(12:12) - Turkey's role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative
(14:50) - What happens next?
(19:59) - Most likely scenarios
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Erdogan, Hotdogs & AI
14 juli 2023 · 56 min
Jacob and Rob briefly analyze the latest inflation data from the U.S. before exploring major geopolitical news (Turkey’s about face on Sweden’s membership in NATO + Ukraine’s future in NATO) and economic news (Brazil’s tax reform). They close with a discussion about a potential emerging trend in health, brought to you courtesy of developments in Rio school cafeterias, and a warning about what the week ahead will bring for Peru. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:00) - Inflation
(05:00) - What's the Fed's next move?
(10:00) - Are we nearing the end of the inflation crisis?
(14:06) - Germanium and Gallium
(16:30) - Geopolitics
(17:20) - Why is Erdogan doing such an about face in Turkey?
(33:49) - Brazil's Tax Reforms
(40:00) - Brazilian Hotdogs and AI
(47:44) - Quality of food
(51:35) - Peruvian Unrest
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CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Sim Tak's War Update + African Deterioration
12 juli 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:30) - Ukraine's semi-successful counteroffensive
(05:50) - Defining success for Ukraine
(07:20) - Russian readiness and analysis
(08:50) - Can Ukraine get the weapons that they need?
(12:50) - Let's talk about cluster munitions
(16:50) - What weapons class will Ukraine get next?
(19:38) - What happened with Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup?
(25:11) - Was the coup planned??
(26:11) - Russian military morale
(30:00) - Why should we care about what's going on in the African Sahel?
(33:32) - When did the Sahel begin to deteriorate?
(38:40) - The threads that connect West Africa
(49:30) - Wagner/Putin's African interests
(55:30) - Is the rest of Africa in danger of the Sahel's deterioration?
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CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Multipolar Mineral Greed
7 juli 2023 · 16 min
No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports
(12:21) - Natural gas teaser
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The Stories We Tell Ourselves
3 juli 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:05) - Catching Up
(04:32) - Telling Stories with Data
(14:40) - Getting Meta
(17:20) - US Restricting AI Chips, Cloud Space to China
(28:00) - AI Infrastructure
(36:10) - Foreboding Developments in AI and Chinese Innovation
(43:00) - The Rise of the City-State?
(44:48) - Geopolitics within nations
(53:30) - Protests in France
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Water We Doing??? More Freshwater Talks with Peter Mayer
28 juni 2023 · 49 min
Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds. Lees meer
Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/water-we-waiting-for
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:00) - Colorado River
(10:30) - Is there a chance of improvement?
(14:20) - How do we fix this?
(17:07) - Geopolitics of water amongst US states
(19:54) - Can States realistically make cuts to their water usage?
(23:37) - Arizona vs. California
(25:09) - Legal issues with water
(29:00) - Possible scenarios with water rights
(30:55) - The next 10 years of water war negotiations
(33:49) - What's stopping desalination efforts?
(42:15) - Where do we go from here?
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Economic Storms Ahead - Chase Calls a Recession
27 juni 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
Jacob welcomes Chase Taylor, the wizard behind Pinecone Macro Research, back to the podcast to discuss why he thinks a U.S. recession is near (and what indicators to watch for). From there, they explore Japan (bullish!), Nigeria (mixed!) and natural gas (bullish). Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(01:42) - Chase predicts a recession
(12:18) - Financial security and the gender gap
(15:30) - Macro credit
(18:20) - Futures in a recession
(21:00) - Signals and signs
(26:00) - Bullish on Japan
(29:00) - Japanese demographics
(34:00) - The World's Worst Yen Trader
(37:50) - China's role in Japanese markets
(41:05) - Chinese demand-side stimulus
(44:44) – Nigeria's Future
(50:00) - Nigerian Politics
(53:47) - Natural gas
(01:04:00) - Sports :)
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The End of Russia (Part II)
26 juni 2023 · 1 uur 15 min
Jacob and Cousin Marko try to make sense of what just happened in Russia over the last 36 hours…and what is going to happen next. They tackle the timeline of events with Prigozhen marching up towards Moscow and engaging Russian Military troops, then move into breaking down some of the more grounded conspiracy theories floating around out there. Jacob and Marko both agree that this is the end of Russia as we know it, and will usher in a new era of instability for the region (compounded with the Ukranian invasion). They then move onto the market implications, the Ukraine counteroffensive, tactical nuke scenarios, China, and then finally Basketball. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:03) - WTF is going on in Russia?
(09:00) - The end of Russia (No REALLY)
(12:30) - Putting conspiracy theories to rest
(18:23) - Internal strife
(25:14) – What happens next in Russia?
(31:56) - Market Movements
(40:06) – Ukraine Implications
(52:41) – Dam Explosion/Tactical Nukes
(59:36) - China
(1:04:18) – NBA talk and key takeaways
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial ad…
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The End of Russia (A Russian Civil War?)
24 juni 2023 · 17 min
Jacob Shapiro hops on the mic for an emergency episode to discuss WTF is happening in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has claimed the city Rostov-on-Don in the south of Russia. He is currently marching along a highway towards Moscow and there are reports of fighting between Russian Military and Wagner forces. Putin has responded by naming the movement as an armed rebellion. Lees meer
This episode was recorded at 9am Central Time, we will continue to keep you updated!
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Cash is King and Cars are Dumb
23 juni 2023 · 50 min
Rob is back from vacation and here to provide insights on the UK’s surprising inflation print and why CI believes inflation could be more stubborn than U.S. markets presume. From there, they discuss the latest developments in the Chinese economy – still the most important issue in the world, Titanic submarine developments notwithstanding – before discussing the auto industry and their shared skepticism on the rise of EVs. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(01:36) - UK inflation
(06:15) - US inflation
(14:56) - The role of energy volatility in Inflation
(16:30) - The value of liquidity
(21:13) - Energy companies
(22:30) - Multipolarity, inflation, and China
(27:00) - Xi Jinping vs. local government
(31:54) - The automotive industry
(40:13) - EV's + state-run capitalism
(44:30) - What's in a market?
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Go Woke, Go Broke?
21 juni 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
Jacob welcomes Enrique Fonseca onto the podcast for the first time to discuss Spain’s upcoming elections. Enrique Fonseca takes a more conservative approach to politics than Jacob, although they both acknowledge their biases and continue to talk through their disagreements. They spar over the role ideology plays in modern politics and about the extent to which the Spanish left’s emphasis on identity politics has hurt its electoral chances. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:09) – Economy is good, but polls are bad?
(16:24) – Who is Podemos/the Spanish left?
(30:06) – History of Podemos
(32:04) - The radicalization of politics in Spain
(36:21) - Radicalization of politics globally
(42:30) - Liberalization of Spain
(55:20)– What happens next?
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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A Dagger Pointed at the Heart of Antarctica
19 juni 2023 · 55 min
Jacob is joined by Reuben Steff to offer a fresh perspective on New Zealand’s geopolitics. They trace the history of New Zealand-U.S. relations, explore New Zealand’s trade dependence on China, share some thoughts on whether or not New Zealand will join AUKUS, and close on Jacinda Ardern’s legacy. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:20) - Why does NZ care about the rest of the world?
(08:27) - Brief history of NZ foreign policy
(14:18) - NZ Security Policy
(23:10) - US/China Detente
(26:04) - The South Pacific
(34:20) - Resources of the South Pacific
(35:33) - Indonesia
(38:30) - AUKUS
(47:30) - Jacinda’s Legacy
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The Russian Cascade - RealAgriculture Crosspost
16 juni 2023 · 38 min
Jacob sits down with RealAgriculture's Shaun Haney to discuss the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They walk through the Black Sea Grain Initiative, food prices, Ukraine's escalating counteroffensive, and China's lowkey efforts to arm Russia. Shaun and Jacob will be chatting once a month about the intersections of geopolitics and agriculture, with crossposts across all of our channels! Lees meer
Check out RealAg here - https://www.realagriculture.com/
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Move Over, Big Oil – Here Comes Big Shovel
12 juni 2023 · 53 min
Jacob welcomes Tomás Villalón Jr. on the podcast to talk about the geopolitics of metals. Tomás is on CI’s Innovation Advisory Board in addition to being CTO & Co-Founder at Phoenix Tailings – which means he will be a repeat guest. In this episode, Jacob and Tomás talk about the geopolitics of metals from the highest levels, setting the stage for future episodes on supply chain disruptions, technological developments, and the future of mining…which for better and for worse is the bedrock of human civilization. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(05:42) - Geopolitics of Mining
(13:30) - Comparing energy and mining?
(15:50) - Future of metals
(17:25) - Will steel continue to be the centerpiece of industrialization?
(18:10) - What minerals are important and why?
(24:10) - Does the US have the capabilities to nearshore our minerals?
(28:30) - Energy supply and security
(31:08) - Grid Reliability
(34:00) - Private/Public partnerships in Big Shovel
(37:00) - Scarcity and Demand
(40:00) - Copper Futures, can we make the shift?
(45:00) - Leaders in copper development
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as in…
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Forecast Revisited
9 juni 2023 · 1 uur 9 min
Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Nature this week called The Illusion of Moral Decline. For the first time in his life, Jacob meets an optimist more unbridled than he. Lees meer
Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:24) - Iran-U.S. deal?
(17:43) – H1 2023 Forecast Recap
(33:20) – H2 2023 Forecast
(33:52) - Rob's Predictions
(37:18) - Jacob's Predictions
(43:00) - China, Local Government and Debt
(47:45) - Rob the Doomsayer (on China)
(51:03) – The illusion of moral decline
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting …
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Sucker’s Game
5 juni 2023 · 1 uur 1 min
Cousin Marko rejoins the podcast at long last! Jacob and Marko start off with a rousing disagreement on the Russia-Ukraine war and its import on global geopolitics and markets. From there, they throw shade at wanna be geopolitical analysts who spend too much time pontificating about risk premiums rather than using geopolitics to find opportunities. After a brief discussion of Indonesia as an example of an opportunity, they offer their signature, cutting-edge basketball commentary. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:00) – Disagreement about Ukraine/Russian Offensive
(28:41) - Russia's Revolutionary History
(32:10) - Geopolitical Risk/Opportunity Premiums
(24:40) - European Futures
(42:09) - Ireland is Shining
(45:22) – Indonesia
(50:16) - Basketball
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??
2 juni 2023 · 54 min
Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day melodrama of geopolitics and markets to talk about how they apply geopolitical insights to identify the countries that are poised to do best for the rest of the decade…and how they make investment decisions for CI clients based on this analysis. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(02:15) - Strategic Wealth
(14:00) - Brazil
(22:30) - Spotting Bad Analysis
(27:10) - Turkey and Indonesia
(32:07) - Speculation and Strategy
(37:14) - Economics is Always Wrong
(39:16) - The Importance of Qualitative Analysis
(45:10) - Poland
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Debate: The Future of Turkey’s Economy
31 mei 2023 · 43 min
Emre rejoins the podcast for a third time, offering analysis on what turned out to be an anti-climactic Erdogan victory. From there, Jacob and Emre look toward the future, offering opposing perspectives on what Erdogan’s victory means for the future of the Turkish economy and the performance of Turkish markets. If you want to see Emre’s charts, check out the pod on YouTube. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:30) - Election results analysis
(14:00) - Future of Turkish economy
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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No Cappuccinos After 11:30
29 mei 2023 · 51 min
Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets. Lees meer
You can find more of Alf’s work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro
(20:09) – Is China investable?
(27:35) – Europe, specifically, Italy, Poland, and Romania
(37:48) – Japan
(43:44) – Indonesia
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Failed Breakout
26 mei 2023 · 55 min
Rob and Jacob talk about a decisive week in equity markets and what it means for equity prices. They explore the “AI bubble” and how to separate signal from noise. From there, they turn to China to discuss unemployment and local government debt issues in the Chinese economy and why the grand reopening narrative has and will continue to be wrong. They close with discussing countries/cities at the center of changing geopolitical circumstances – Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Ireland – and why Ireland might be a geopolitical winner for the first time in its long and luckless history. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:06) - Failed breakout + artificial intelligence bubble
(11:30) – China's Unhealthy Economy
(19:26) - What might China do if they start to freak out?
(27:28) - Hong Kong
36:30 - Long Ireland, Short UK
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CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Preparing for Ukraine’s Counter Offensive
24 mei 2023 · 56 min
Fan-favorite Sim Tack comes back onto the show to discuss the key issues to watch ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Sim and Jacob break down the status of the Ukrainian and Russian militaries and explore the politics of support for Ukraine and how much time Ukraine has to defeat Russia. Bonus tangents on whether China will invade Taiwan and why you should care that the Sahel, a desert-region of Africa, is seething with instability and violence. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(11:20) – Where is Ukraine’s counteroffensive?
(24:05) – What are Ukraine’s objectives?
(30:32) – What is the state of Russia’s military?
(42:18) – Germany/EU/UK/EU/China views
(44:27) – Taiwan tangent
(46:07) – December 31st, 2023
(55:05) – The Sahel (conflicts you aren't paying attention to)
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CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Committing Geopolitical Suicide
22 mei 2023 · 1 uur 1 min
Kamran Bokhari of The New Lines Institute rejoins the show to offer insights on the deterioration of political stability in Pakistan…and why the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. From there, Jacob and Kamran train their sights on the South Caucasus, an underappreciated part of the world that is experiencing significant change due to geopolitical competition between Azerbaijan and Iran. They close with a few parting thoughts on Turkey’s recent presidential and parliamentary elections. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(03:00) - Pakistan and Imran Khan
(34:00) – Pakistan
(36:46) – South Caucasus
(56:02) – end – Turkey
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CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Thailand Election Analysis
20 mei 2023 · 35 min
Jacob welcomes Phillip Orchard onto the podcast to analyze the results of Thailand’s recent elections. They go over the results, Phillip offers some context on how to frame current developments, and they close with thoughts about the geopolitical consequences…with expertly executed basketball metaphors Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:20) - Election Results
(07:00) - Thai history
(20:00) – What does the opposition stand for?
(25:40) – Geopolitical implications
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Geopolitical Flux -> Market Turbulence
18 mei 2023 · 1 uur 6 min
It’s been a wild week in geopolitics and markets, but Jacob and Rob have got you covered. They discuss the slew of developments this week for the first part of the podcast, before diving deeper into the instability in Pakistan, global food prices, South America, and Germany’s commitment to Ukraine. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:00) - Markets/geopolitics overview
(24:55) - Pakistan + Global food prices
(41:53) – Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador
(55:36) – Don’t sleep on Germany
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CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Turkey’s Election Results – Rapid Reaction
15 mei 2023 · 26 min
Jacob welcomes back Emre Dogru to discuss their reaction to Turkey’s surprising election results. What does it mean for investors and the region, and what should you be looking for as the contest goes to a run-off in two weeks? Also, how to pronounce the letter “g” in Turkish. (You’re welcome.) Lees meer
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The Trouble With Emerging Markets
12 mei 2023 · 1 uur 1 min
To learn more about the Knowledge Platform, click here: Lees meer
https://www.cognitive.investments/research_advice
Jacob and Rob talk about the release of CI’s Knowledge Platform and some of the broader macro themes they are focusing on, before turning to an around-the-world discussion of trouble in emerging markets. They close with some thoughts on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(04:50) – The Knowledge Platform Launch
(05:45) - What Is It?
(06:44) - Geopolitics and Disruptive Innovation
(11:20) - Deep Dive Explanations
(14:35) - Early Stage Innovation
(18:10) - Hydrogen rides on Iridium (Examples)
(20:00) - Cutting through the BS
(25:00) - Looking Short at Germany and the USA
(31:15) - Pakistan Unrest
(33:36) - East Africa/Sudan
(37:00) - The importance of institutions
(45:50) - Debt ceiling
(54:26) - Japanese Markets
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The Most Important Election In The Middle East
10 mei 2023 · 55 min
Turkey's elections may not be fair, but they ~are~ free. Lees meer
Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl onto the Cognitive Dissidents podcast to discuss the least volatile region in the world – the Middle East. They talk through potential scenarios on Turkey’s upcoming election before exploring multipolar developments in the Gulf and in Iran, then closing with thoughts on the future of Israel and Syria's direction moving forward.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:06) - Turkey
(16:16) - Gulf/Iran
(34:24) – Israel
(47:21) – Syria
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Ryan's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbohl
Stratfor: https://worldview.stratfor.com/
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CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Deep Dive: Uzbekistan and the Future of Eurasia
30 april 2023 · 57 min
Welcome to the Deep Dive! We’re diving deep into the geopolitics of Uzbekistan – one of only two double-landlocked states in the world. In other words – Uzbekistan is one of only two states in the entire world that whose access to the world’s oceans is blocked by two states in all directions. Lees meer
Uzbekistan is a crossroads for the Eurasian continent, wedged between numerous foreign powers, each with their own interests in bending Uzbekistan’s behavior to their favor. China, Russia, the EU, Japan, India, South Korea, the United States are all deeply interested in and fighting over Uzbekistan’s and Central Asia’s future.
Hopefully, by the end of this podcast, you’ll get a sense of Uzbekistan’s opportunities, its internal and external risks, and why the future of Eurasia depends on how those opportunities and risks evolve in the coming years.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(02:53) - The Basics of Uzbekistan
(06:07) - What is Eurasia?
(12:08) - Russian and Chinese Interests
(23:45) - Everyone Else's Interests
(35:50) - Opportunities and Risks
(44:33) - The Path Forward
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be conside…
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The Movements to Nationalize Lithium
28 april 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
TAKE THE SURVEY (please <3): https://forms.gle/TA2YX3GfV335Ey8d7 Lees meer
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Jacob and Rob discuss why they continue to be more optimistic about U.S. macro than consensus – and the important geopolitical implications. From there they touch on Turkey’s upcoming elections and why fundamentals are more important than headlines, before closing with thoughts the differences between Chile and Colombia and the recent spate of news around lithium nationalizations.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:30) - Jacob’s musings
(07:01) - U.S. macro
(17:38) - China-Ukraine
(25:13) - Turkish elections
(46:03) – Chile/Colombia/Lithium
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The Economics and Geopolitics of Fracking w/ Bethany McLean (Perch Pod Repost)
26 april 2023 · 49 min
In this fantastic episode from early 2021, Jacob speaks with Bethany McLean, an American journalist and contributing editor for Vanity Fair magazine. She is known for her writing on the Enron scandal and the 2008 financial crisis. They talk about her latest book, Saudi America The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World. While the episode is old, the content in it is still quite fresh and deserves more careful thought and analysis. Enjoy! Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:17) - The Economics of Fracking
(24:43) - The Geopolitics of Fracking + the U.S. as an Energy Superpower
(32:30) - Thoughts on the Future
(41:35) - Enron
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Positive Outlooks, African Instability, and Warren Buffett's (Implied) Endorsement
21 april 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Jacob and Rob are back at it after a few weeks apart. They discuss positive data they are seeing relative to current gloomy expectations, before discussing the biggest geopolitical issues of the last two weeks: Lula’s visit to China, Mexico-U.S. relations, the fate of the European Union and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. They close with some thoughts about the recent political instability in sub-Saharan Africa…and with a shout-out to Warren Buffett for coming around on our long Japan thesis. Lees meer
Survey: https://forms.gle/NZs3sAZFoahxzycH6
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(1:54) – Market update with Rob!
(13:00) – Brazil and Mexico
(30:00) – EU/Grain Deal
(44:00) – North African Instability
(54:45) - Oil Prices
(56:04) – Warren Buffett
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Understanding Ransomware as a Service (RaaS)
17 april 2023 · 1 uur 7 min
Matt Pines rejoins the podcast to talk cybersecurity basics, including the overlooked importance of non-state actors and how that can affect near-shoring. From there, Matt and Jacob explore what changing technology can mean in a more geopolitical world, especially as it relates to Artificial Intelligence, before talking about aliens. Yup, aliens. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity. Lees meer
Survey: https://forms.gle/NZs3sAZFoahxzycH6
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(2:00) - TikTok and Cybersecurity Basics
(9:00) - Near-shoring Pitfalls
(16:13) - Chinese Hardware Vulnerabilities
(22:40) - Which Countries are Safest from Chinese Ransomware?
(25:13) - New Frontiers for Threat Actors
(31:16) - Everyone is Networked, Everyone is at Risk
(42:06) - Is Privacy a Dead?
(49:08) - Aliens :)
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Immaculate Disinflation
7 april 2023 · 56 min
Rob is on vacation this week, but the pod never rests! Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro Research and Bulwark Capital pinch hits for Rob. Jacob and Chase talk about the latest developments in the U.S. banking sector before turning to commodities, especially oil and gas, to try and figure out where prices may be going in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s surprising production cut earlier this week. They close with some spicy NBA finals predictions. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(1:50) - Banking crisis/Chase’s macro view
(15:43) - Who said something about Oil? You cookin’?
(34:25) - Commodity supercycle
(43:29) – Natural Gas
(51:05) - Basketball
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Prisoners To Nearby Prices - The Biggest Issues Facing Farmers in '23-'24
3 april 2023 · 55 min
Jacob welcomes back Neil Townsend ahead of the GrainFox “Before You Grow” Event, where Neil and Jacob are both speaking. Together, Neil and Jacob try to look beyond recent headlines and identify the biggest issues affecting farmers in 2023/24 as well as discussing trends in land values and food consumption. They discuss whether farmers should expect a “war premium” to return to grain prices and their conclusion about where that war premium is likely to show up in the market may surprise you. They close with a conversation about China and why this might be a good year for exports to the Middle Kingdom. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(2:11) - Biggest Issues For Farmers in 2023/24
(8:50) - Local Farming Geopolitics
(14:32) - Consumer Food Prices
(20:00) – A “war premium” for grain prices and what that really means
(29:23) - China and Rural Farming
(32:44) - Russia's Grain Power
(41:30) – China and Ag
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Link to GrainFox Event: https://events.grainfox.ca/2023-before-you-grow
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the m…
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Thriving In a Volatile Macro Environment
31 maart 2023 · 53 min
Jacob and Rob take a step back and question some of their previous optimism about U.S. growth and the Chinese re-opening. They discuss the role of China in the global economy and wrestle with what China’s data does or doesn’t tell us about prospects for international growth and the potential impact on emerging markets and the dollar. From there, they turn to surprisingly high inflation figures in Europe before closing with extended thoughts on Brazil and Indonesia – and why they might fit the profile of countries capable of thriving in a volatile and uncertain macro environment. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
2:30 – U.S. Macro
7:50 – China Macro
22:06 – Inflation in Europe
27:30 – Brazil and Indonesia
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Emergency Episode: The Future of Israel
28 maart 2023 · 23 min
Jacob tackles the historic protests in Israel head-on and offers a sober take on the future of the Jewish state. Lees meer
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Is Turkey Still a Democracy? (Fixed Audio)
27 maart 2023 · 53 min
The answer might surprise you. Emre Dogru joins the show for the first time to discuss the economic and political impact of February’s tragic earthquake before turning to Turkey’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and why he remains relatively optimistic about Turkish resilience in the long-term. Emre and Jacob close by discussing what might really change from a policy perspective no matter who wins the elections and prospects for investing going forward. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(2:34) – Econ + political impact of the earthquake
(15:50) – Turkey’s upcoming elections
(38:00) – Policy changes and investment implications
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
--
Timestamps:
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://inv…
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Inflation’s Much Exaggerated Demise + The Power of Soft Power
24 maart 2023 · 1 uur 8 min
It has been a deceptively quiet week in markets and geopolitics. Rob and Jacob give you the sober update you need on the SVB crisis and why they are more worried about other things, like corporate debt and a private equity bubble. From there, they tackle the big China-Russia meeting this week and engage in a wide-ranging conversation about whether China has “soft power” and whether China’s future is necessarily authoritarian. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(2:11) - Market Update
(14:48) – How to think about debt
(28:05) – The Xi-Putin visit and the future of China
(36:48) - Soft Power
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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What is GPT, Why Should I Care? + The Future of Energy and Crypto
20 maart 2023 · 55 min
Futurist and friend Garry Golden joins the podcast for a repeat appearance with an eye on how fundamental changes in technology will shape the coming decades. This is a conversation with a wide angle lens and a very long-term horizon: Jacob and Garry explore the future of energy (and debate biofuels v. hydrogen), discuss the current state of play in crypto and what the future holds for blockchain, before turning to a very introductory discussion of generative artificial intelligence and why Jacob should probably start using ChatGPT as a tool for his analysis. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(2:36) – The future of energy
(26:06) – The future of crypto
(43:11) – What is GPT, Why Should I Care?
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Spotting the Next SVB - 2024 and Beyond
17 maart 2023 · 56 min
Jacob and Rob discuss what happened at Silicon Valley Bank – and why CI knew there was trouble in Silicon Valley as far back as May 2022. Rather than pat themselves on the back too much, Rob and Jacob talk about the importance of focusing on the right information and explain some of the things that they are focused on today that might be the Silicon Valley Bank stories of 2024 and beyond. They close with some thoughts on whether SVB will have any contagion in Europe before making a defense of deep generalists against over-specialization. Lees meer
Jacob's email is jacob@cognitive.investments
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Timestamps:
(3:43)– What happened at SVB?
(12:10) – How we knew something was wrong in 2022
(31:30) – What we are focused on in the future
(36:38) – What about Credit Suisse and Europe?
(41:53) - In Defense of Generalists
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Genuine Partnership or PR Blitz? - The Normalization of Saudi/Iranian Relations
15 maart 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast for an emergency discussion on the normalization of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations announced in China last week. They discuss the interests of all the different players and analyze what to take seriously – and what is just a PR moment. From there, they look at how different countries in the region will see the deal, including Israel, Turkey, and India. After a brief dive into the evolution of the Saudi nation state, they close with thoughts on Kamran’s prediction from December that the end of the Iranian regime is nigh. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(1:49) – The Saudi-Iranian-Chinese agreement.
(30:20) – Turkey’s view + a brief aside on the evolution of Saudi Arabia
(47:28) – The role of India
52:00 – The future of Iran
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Egypt Shouldn't Be Doing Well... But It Is?
10 maart 2023 · 46 min
Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed resuming its previous hawkishness and tease out underappreciated areas of the economy where more expensive capital could have consequences, especially related to U.S. energy production. From there, they take a brief look at geopolitics in Egypt and Turkey before turning to the biggest geopolitical news of the week you probably didn’t pay attention to – the rapprochement in South Korea-Japan relations. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(2:48) - Market update
(16:20) - Egypt
(24:55) – Turkey
(30:08) – Japan/South Korea
--
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Crosspost: How does the Russia-Ukraine war end? w/realagriculture
6 maart 2023 · 33 min
This episode is a crossover episode with realagriculture! RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney and Jacob sit down for an in-depth discussion on the factors influencing the Russia-Ukraine war, one year in. From leaders’ messaging, to Western involvement, to figuring out China, and finally to how it all ends, Shapiro shares his thoughts. Lees meer
Catch the original here: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/02/how-does-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-on-china-the-west-and-the-fog-of-war-with-jacob-shapiro/
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Long Wheat, Short Soy
3 maart 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Rob and Jacob breakdown China’s shockingly good PMI data and what it will mean for inflation and U.S. dollar strength. From there, they look closely at European economic data and walked away chastened about Europe’s prospects for the rest of year. Midway through the podcast, Rob and Jacob offer a new segment – “Anatomy of a Trade” – and discuss recent positions (long wheat, short soybeans) in CI’s Macro strategy, before closing with some thoughts on the future of Mexican democracy. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) – Intro
(01:50) – China PMI data/strong U.S. dollar
(18:16) – Yikes on the EU
(29:08) – Long wheat, short soybeans
(50:06) – Mexico
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Debating China’s Rise
27 februari 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Jacob welcomes Emily de La Bruyère on to the podcast for a robust debate about China’s global intentions and the future of U.S.-China relations. In a conversation blissfully bereft of inane chatter about spy balloons, Emily and Jacob disagree about China’s strategic intentions and the extent to which the U.S. is dependent on China. From there they discuss the critical role of Europe in the U.S.-China bilateral and before honing in on specific ways listeners can make use of these conflicting (sort of) narratives. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(2:51) – What does China want?
(15:50) – Who is more dependent on who?
(24:20) – A solar case study
(41:15) – Whither Europe + Action items
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Inflation Expectations
24 februari 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Jacob and Rob give a brief recap on market developments and how to think about rising inflation expectations. From there, they pivot (get it?) to discuss a strange story out of China, where coal prices and coal supply are simultaneously rising at the same time, and what that might mean for global energy markets in general. They touch on the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s war with Ukraine – and why time is not on the side of the latter – before closing with some thoughts on a geopolitical shift in the Philippines and the pitfalls of strategic ambiguity in Taiwan. Lees meer
--
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(1:48)– Market update
(6:40) - Energy Price Rebounds
(8:15) – China and Coal
(25:08) – 1 Year of Russia-Ukraine War
(42:30) – Taiwan and Philippines
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
China Coal Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-20/china-s-coal-mining-boom-is-running-on-fumes
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Measuring the Apex of Modern Industrial Society
17 februari 2023 · 46 min
How do we measure a society's ascent into modernity? Is it their ability to make cars or manufacture their own vaccines? Lees meer
If they lose these abilities or never progress out of the the primordial ooze of political turmoil, what does that make them?
Rob and Jacob tackle these questions and much much more for this week's episode of Cognitive Dissidents.
They'll revisit China’s real estate crisis, offer thoughts on Pakistan and India’s divergent policy directions, and speculate on the future of EVs!
Special guest appearance by HRH Anne the Love Shapiro.
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(1:40) - China Housing Updates
(13:00) - China Developing Food Security
(19:10) – Pakistan is Quadrupling Coal
(23:04) – Indian Growth and the Costs
(30:02)– Lithium and nickel prices roll over
(32:36) - EV's
(38:05) - EU + Poland drama
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
-
Cousin Marko: Balloons, Ukraine, and Kyrie Irving
15 februari 2023 · 1 uur
Marko Papic is back! Kyrie Irving got traded to the Mavs and it's confusing/upsetting/underwhelming. The Biden Administration is using their most expensive jet to flex on a balloon, and it signifies some important shifts in US-China relations. The topic of India is broached and we dive a bit into Ukraine! Tune in to hear more. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Introduction
(1:14) - U.S. coalition against China
(13:14) – Ukraine War
(34:14) – Multipolarity
(42:30) – India
(52:11) – Kyrie Irving
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Marko's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Geo_papic
CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
--
Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
--
Referenced In The Show:
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The Next 12 Months of War in Ukraine
13 februari 2023 · 1 uur
Jacob welcomes back fan-favorite Sim Tack to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine. The next 12 months (assuming it will last that long) are going to be a test of Ukraine's resolve, Europe's willingness to isolate Russia, and the US's desire to continue providing funding/supplies. Sim and Jacob ponder the clandestine operator that bombed the Nordstream pipeline, and try to figure out whether or not Ukraine will be receiving some fighter jets to move into offensive mode. Tune in to learn more! Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(1:40) – The next 12 months of the war
(23:50) – Assessing Europe’s true resolve
(36:10) – Who bombed Nordstream?
(44:00) – Is Ukraine getting fighter jets?
(52:50) – How long will the US and EU pitch into Ukraine?
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. His expertise is in intelligence-driven approaches to the study of armed conflicts and military capabilities, as well as other resources of power that support foreign policy behavior. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack
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