Alle afleveringen
350 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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Human Capital
10 februari 2023 · 1 uur 5 min
What happens when you have wage growth inflation, a consistently shrinking workforce, historically low unemployment, and surging investment from the government? Lees meer
How do human capital issues (e.g. disability rates, death rates, declining life expectancy) and inflation play off of one another across the markets?
Rob and Jacob explore the concept of human capital from a variety of angles, starting with the a breakdown of the concept and the issues that threaten to slow down the US economy. They proceed onto possible solutions, the implications of these issues on macro investment, and end with some sage wisdom on why we should stay optimistic. Tune in!
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Introduction
(1:20) – Prayers for Turkey
(2:29) – The human capital problems in the U.S.
(11:30) - What trends can we use to explain these problems?
(21:50) – Are there solutions? Can we turn it around?
(35:25) – What are the investment implications?
(50:23)- Reasons for Optimism
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into t…
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China's Balloon Boondoggle
7 februari 2023 · 15 min
What the heck is up with these Chinese Balloons? Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Balloons
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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What is Nuclear Fusion and Why Does It Matter So Much
6 februari 2023 · 59 min
Myles Stapelberg, a graduate student at MIT in the Plasma Science and Fusion Center and a member of CI’s new Innovation Advisory Board, joins the podcast to give us a primer on nuclear fusion. This will be the first of a few appearances for Myles – in this initial episode, Jacob peppers Myles with questions to understand the basics of nuclear fusion – what it is, why it is important, and how soon it might be till it matters in our own lives? Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(4:00) - What is nuclear fusion?
(11:30) - Why is nuclear fusion Important for the future of humans?
(24:15) - What are the different ways to achieve fusion?
(30:00) - What are the safeguards in place to stop runaway fusion?
(36:00) - Why was this recent breakthrough so important?
(43:50) - What is the timeline for nuclear fusion?
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Asynchronous Waves
3 februari 2023 · 52 min
Rob and Jacob start off with a general overview of this previous week in macro, then turn to what might be in store for the future. Afterwards, they turn to the Biden administration's choice to float a larger military presence around the Philippines, breaking down their deter China and unsubtly escalating the US-China trade war. Simultaneously, India is starting to align with the US more deeply across supply chains and mutual beneficial agreements - leading Jacob to ask some serious questions about their commitment to non-alignment. Peru is still on quite shaky ground politically, so copper is obviously in the same place, and they take a deep dive into the most important unobserved Central American copper hub. Finally, Rob lets us in on Mexico's stock market bonanza, and the political reasons that underlie it all. Tune in to find out more! Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Intro
(2:10) - Global Macro Rundown
(13:00) - The Philippines
(19:00) - The US-China Trade War
(25:40) - India-US Relations
(30:30)– Peru + Copper + Oil
(37:23) - Copper + China Reopening
(40:00) - Important/Unimportant News Stories
(41:20) - Mexican Stocks + Next Presidents + Cartels
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing dis…
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US-China Relations with David Firestein
30 januari 2023 · 1 uur 3 min
Jacob is joined by David Firetsein, inaugural president and CEO of the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. They discuss David’s professional background and the work of the foundation before diving into trust in the U.S.-China relationship and prospects for the bilateral in the year ahead. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
(0:00) - Introduction
(2:40) – David’s background
(10:00) – George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S. China Relations
(21:27) – Trust in the U.S.-China Relationship
(45:34) – The year ahead in U.S.-China relations
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced:
Link to David’s recent article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42533-022-00117-y
Link to George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations: https://bushchinafoundation.org/
David’s bio: https://bushchinafoundation.org/people/david-j-firestein/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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Peru Crisis + The Many Lefts of Latin America
27 januari 2023 · 1 uur 4 min
Elohim Monard rejoins the podcast and pinch-hits for Rob’s usually weekly slot to address the ongoing and escalating deterioration of political stability in Peru. Elohim offers insightful perspective about what would happen if Boluarte resigned and shares disturbing allegations of terrorism and Bolivian involvement in the protests that have been circulating in Peru and that may set the stage for a military coup. From there, they take a brief tour of the other major countries of Latin America and how they are doing – and how the fate of the region may ultimately be in Brazil and Mexico’s hands. Lees meer
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Timestamps:
1:30-28:00 – Peru
28:00-39:00 – Brazil
39:00-45:10 – Colombia
45:10-51:46 – Chile
51:46-end – Mexico/Argentina
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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What is the Future of the EU?
23 januari 2023 · 51 min
Dario Fabbri comes back to the CD pod to talk with Jacob about the future of the European Union, Russia/China, and the political instability rocking Latin America. Lees meer
Italy, Germany, and France are all dealing with the War in Ukraine differently, and their responses will have a ripple effect that moves far beyond the conflict. Is this a pivotal year for the EU? Structural changes to both industry and geopolitical policy are shifting the foundation of Europe into a new paradigm but... What does that mean? Find out by giving us a listen!
Dario Fabbri is a geopolitical analyst based in Italy. He is Director of the monthly magazine Domino and a columnist at Domani.
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Timestamps:
1:36-20:30 – Italian domestic politics, relations with France/Germany
20:30-30:00 – Future of the EU
30:00-42:40 – Russia and China
42:40-end – Brazil/democracy
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
Dario's writing: https://choramedia.com/podcast/stati-di-tensione/
Dario's podcast: https://choramedia.com/podcast/stati-di-tensione/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting yo…
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Dealing with Uncertainty
20 januari 2023 · 52 min
Jacob and Rob get a little introspective this week, using developments in China and Vietnam to talk about how to think about the world and the struggle between having too much information and how to make sense of it all. Along the way they discuss uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing protests in Peru, and why people are getting the Bank of Japan so wrong. Lees meer
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
Timestamps:
1:00 – 3:48 – Bank of Japan
3:48 – 24:29 – China reopening/narratives tangent
24:29-38:52 – Vietnam/intelligence tangent
38:52 – 48:00 – Eurasia
48:00 – end – Peru
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The Geopolitics of Macro in 2023
16 januari 2023 · 52 min
Jacob is joined by Alf and Andreas of The Macro Trading Floor to discuss the increasingly intersecting worlds of macro and geopolitics in 2023. Alf and Andreas offer differing perspective about the future of Europe, before turning to questions around how to play China’s re-opening and what the effects of a recession in the U.S. will be on U.S. equity performance. Lees meer
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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/
CI Website: https://cognitive.investments
CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest
Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/
Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340
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Macro Trading Floor podcast: Here
Alfonso Peccatiello’s website: Here
Andreas Steno Larsen’s website: Here
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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).
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Referenced In The Show:
Timestamps:
2:00-13:00 – Geopolitics and investing/gold?
13:00-35:00 – Europe
35:00-45:00 – China/copper
45:00-end – U.S. v Intl equity performance in 2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.
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The Geopolitics of Metals + Shorting the Euro
13 januari 2023 · 54 min
We're usually pretty bullish on the EU, but this week some interesting data points were released that made us rethink our usual Euro decisions. Jacob and Rob take some time to break down the data behind their decision to short the Euro, then move southwest to Latin America where commodities seem to be ignoring the wild political strife and flying to the moon. Finally, heading over to the Middle East and Asia, R & J tackle Iran's strange outbursts and try to gauge whether India is actually able to do what it says. Lees meer
Timestamps:
1:17-21:35 – Shorting the euro
21:35-36:10 – Peru/Panama/Copper/Nationalization
36:10-42:22
42:22-end – Iran and India
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)
Cognitive Investments
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Analysis: Brazilian Capitol Riots
9 januari 2023 · 28 min
What led to the Capital Riots on January 8th situation? Lees meer
Is there a significant threat to Democracy inside of Brazil?
Will there be significant geopolitical fallout for Brazil's neighbors?
What will Brazil's domestic fallout look like?
How will this affect global markets or long positions in the Brazilian market?
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)
Cognitive Investments
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A Deceptively Quiet Start To 2023
6 januari 2023 · 1 uur 9 min
2023 has started off with a fairly subdued international news cycle... but the world hasn't stopped turning. So, what's lurking beneath the surface? What are we missing (besides Kevin McCarthy's humiliation at the hands of his own party)? Lees meer
Tune in to hear the latest updates on everything going on outside of our little bubble - across Europe, Asia, Latin America and the food markets!
Timestamps:
0:00-7:26 – Europe
7:26-18:53 – Japan
18:53 – 23:06 – China
23:06 – 36:15 – Copper
36:15 – 50:45 – Soybeans
50:45 – end – Latin American/Mexico
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)
Cognitive Investments
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A Tumultuous Chinese Future
2 januari 2023 · 55 min
What does the immediate future of China look like? Lees meer
Is China a threat to the US dominance of markets and military?
John Minnich and Jacob Shapiro talk about the future of the PRC, how China and the US stack up against one another in a multi-polar world, China's struggles in the tech industry, and their ever-looming presence in neighboring countries.
John Minnich is a PhD candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics at MIT
Timestamps:
1:40-10:50 – China 2023
10:50 - 27:10 – Is China a threat to the U.S.?
27:10 – 35:02 – China Chips/AI
35:02-49:22 – Chinese technology transfer policy
49:22 – end – South Korea? Taiwan? Japan?
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Looking Ahead at 2023
23 december 2022 · 48 min
What's coming for 2023? Obviously, we can't predict the future - but we can make some educated guesses about what's to come. Are we moving towards a unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar global system? Global monetary policy is moving in some novel (yet still stale) directions, globalization is evolving as geopolitics shapes international relations, and somehow Russia is still grinding away at Ukraine. Tune in for some interesting surprises Lees meer
Timestamps:
0:00-4:43 – Intro
4:43 - 17:26 – The Bank of Japan’s surprise
17:26-end – Looking back at 2022 and a head 2023
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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The End of The Iranian Regime
19 december 2022 · 58 min
Kamran rejoins the show without much optimism to offer – for Iran, for Pakistan, or for much of the Muslim world. Central Asia, however, might be the silver lining. Lees meer
Timestamps:
1:22 - 32:20 – Iran
32:20 - 39:10 – Turkey
39:10 – 52:40 Islam/Pakistan
52:40 – end – Any optimism?
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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What the Heck is Happening in China?
16 december 2022 · 56 min
Jacob and Rob discuss the latest developments in geopolitics and markets. They dissect the U.S. inflation print before discussing why the euro is at a critical moment, why no one should be certain about China going into 2023, and some peripheral risks that aren’t being focused on enough. They also discuss Jacob’s savant-level soccer predictions. Lees meer
Timestamps:
2:00-12:05 – U.S. Macro
12:05-20:10 – Pivotal moment for Europe
20:10-40:29 – China is confusing
40:14–48:20 – Canary in Southeast Asia
48:20-end – Grains + Argentina
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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A Breakdown of Peru's Failed Coup
10 december 2022 · 27 min
Elohim Monard joins Jacob for an emergency podcast to discuss the “dumbest coup attempt in history.” They discuss what happened this week in Peru, why it happened, and what it means for the future. Lees meer
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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The Not-So-Sick Man of the Euro
9 december 2022 · 1 uur 3 min
Rob and Jacob break down false narratives on U.S. macro and on German de-industrialization before taking a trip around the world and looking at key issues in the EU-Hungary conflict, and China’s COVID-19 and real estate problems. They close with some optimism about Japan and ways of thinking about demographics and globalization in a rapidly changing world. Lees meer
Timestamps:
1:22 - 10:40 - False Narratives in Macro
10:40 - 23:00 - German De-Industrialization
23:00 - 36:26 - Hungary's Bad Bets
36:26 - 43:00 - China's COVID-19 & Real Estate Problems
43:00 - End - Japan
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Talking Ag and Dairy with Dan Basse
5 december 2022 · 36 min
Dan Basse and Jacob sit down in person to talk about the world, markets, and, of course, agriculture! Lees meer
Dan Basse is President of AgResource and a fantastic guest! https://agresource.com/about/
Timestamps
2:00 – 14:00 – Recapping presentations at PDPW
14:00-26:00 – Peak U.S. Farmland/2023 Predictions/Russia-Ukraine
24:00 – end: Why people underestimate Brazil + thoughts on Mexico
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Tiananmen 2.0?
2 december 2022 · 46 min
Jacob and Rob gather for their weekly chat and discuss the protests in China and what is being missed about them. They then discuss the quietly deteriorating trade relationship between the U.S. and EU before focusing in on developments in Latin America, especially the problems in Mercosur and how Brazil may or may not capitalize. Lees meer
Timestamps
1:15-20:15 – China
20:15-30:00 – U.S.-EU relations
30:00 – end: Latin America + multipolarity
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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A Polish Perspective on War - The Rise of the Intermarium?
23 november 2022 · 59 min
Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future. Lees meer
Jacob welcomes Jacek back onto Cognitive Dissidents to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. They discuss several critical issues, including 1) Who fired the missile that landed in Poland and killed 2 people? 2) Will Germany stand up for Ukraine in the long-run? 3) Is the world headed towards a U.S.-China rivalry.
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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A Global CapEx Supercycle?
21 november 2022 · 56 min
Mike Edwards is Deputy CIO at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers. Lees meer
Jacob and Mike discuss China headlines briefly before diving into the main topic: whether the Chinese Communist Party can encourage alternatives to property as an investment vehicle in China. From there they touch on Japan briefly before concluding with some bullish thoughts on Europe.
Timestamps:
1:13-7:33 – China COVID Reopening
7:33-15:26 – G-20 Thoughts
15:26-32:13 – China’s Property Crisis
32:30-38:50 – Japan
38:50–end – Europe
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Bernie Madoff, Elizabeth Holmes... Sam Bankman-Fried?
18 november 2022 · 1 uur 4 min
Jacob and Rob tackle the FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried debacle, before turning to China’s struggles (and whether Xi Jinping is up to them), as well as thoughts on U.S. Fed and ECB monetary policies…with historical allusions back to the interwar period of the 20th century. Lees meer
1:42-27:30 – Crypto/FTX/SBF
27:30-45:53 – China
45:53-end: The Fed v. the ECB; the U.S. as the UK
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Predicting the Weather in 2023
14 november 2022 · 55 min
Jacob is joined by Daryl Ritchison, Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network at NDSU, to discuss how the weather will look in the world in the year ahead. They start with some broad thoughts about the pitfalls of predicting the weather, before checking in on the U.S, Canada, Mexico, South America, Europe, and China and what weather has in store in the year ahead. Lees meer
Timestamps:
2:10–10:10 – How to think about weather
10:10-21:30 – La Nina and Hurricane Season
21:30-31:47– Europe
31:47-36:41 – USA
36:41-39:38 – Mexico + Canada
39:38 - 43:40 – South America
43:40 – 49:37 – China and Asia in general
49:37 – end – Thoughts on climate change
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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What you missed while the world obsessed over U.S. CPI.
11 november 2022 · 55 min
Rob and Jacob briefly address the weaker-than-expected inflation print before attending to developments you might have missed amidst all the U.S. inflation and election news: more economic trouble in China, optimism in Europe and Brazil…and a potential canary in the coal mind at the end of the episode. Lees meer
Timestamps:
1:30-6:37 – U.S. Inflation Reaction
6:37-24:55 – China/Japan
25:00-33:40 – Multipolar Trade
933:40-44:10 – Europe
44:10–End – Canary in the coal mine
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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How Much Longer Can Russia Hold On?
7 november 2022 · 1 uur 21 min
Marko Papic is back to talk about the markets, Russia's big fudge on oil (and war), and a little bit of everything else geopolitical! Stick around for some basketball talk after 1:04:10! Lees meer
TimeStamps:
3:12 - 23:34 - Markets Update
23:30 - 39:30 - Oil, Europe, UAE, Russia
39:30 - 52:20 - Ukraine, Russia, The Future
52:20 - 1:04:10 - Over-Under
1:04:10 - End Basketball
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Russian Weakness, U.S.-China Divergences, Turkey’s Risks, and Bullish Brazil
4 november 2022 · 1 uur 18 min
After a 2-week hiatus due to COVID and travel, Rob and Jacob are back at it. They explore Russia’s brief exit from the Black Sea grain deal, discuss how China and the U.S. economies are going in opposite directions, explore short-term risks and long-term opportunity in Turkey, before closing with bullish thoughts on Brazil post-election. Lees meer
Timestamps:
2:00-15:43 – Who wins if Russia is weak?
16:00-43:46 – U.S. booming, China on its knees
43:46-58:53 – Turkey: The Good, Bad, and the Ugly
58:53–end – Why we love Brazil
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Will Europe Survive the Winter?
31 oktober 2022 · 1 uur 6 min
Jacob welcomes Dave Ripplinger on the podcast to discuss the problems Europe is facing this winter and the areas they agree and disagree. They also talk about the U.S. energy economy, the role of biofuels and renewable diesel in the U.S. energy transition, and close with some broad thoughts about the future of U.S. agriculture for the remainder of the decade. Lees meer
David Ripplinger is Assistant Professor at the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics and the Chair of the Bioenergy Products and Innovation Center at North Dakota State University.
Timestamps:
3:00-24:50 – Debating Europe’s winter
24:50-40:10 – Will the U.S. continue to export energy
40:10-54:20 – Biofuels and renewable diesel
54:20-end – Should you buy farmland today?
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Stratfor: Musings on Autocracies, Democracies and Resilience
29 oktober 2022 · 43 min
This is a crossposted episode from the Rane Podcast Series with Stratfor! Lees meer
Rodger Baker, executive director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE, and Jacob discuss the practice of applied geopolitics in the context of Russia's war with Ukraine, Putin's efforts to leverage energy supplies against Europe, and China's 20th Party Congress (among other asides).
The original episode is here.
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Recording On The Road -- Mini Solo Episode From Dublin
21 oktober 2022 · 24 min
Jacob plugs in from Dublin, Ireland, where he is currently at a Barnett-Hall conference discussing the crazy year in geopolitics -- and where we can expect to go from here. Lees meer
0:36-9:00 – The next 5 years
9:00-12:15 – The UK
12:15- 17:00 – Ireland
17:00 - end – China
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Taking Stock
14 oktober 2022 · 55 min
Jacob and Rob take a step back from yet another crazy week in geopolitics and have a theoretical and wide-ranging conversation about the state of the world, how to deal with uncertainty and volatility, and whether we should be optimistic about the next 6-12 months and beyond. Lees meer
Timestamps -
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Making Sense of Iranian Unrest
10 oktober 2022 · 59 min
Abdolrasool Divsallar (Farzam, if you will) joins us again, after well over a year, to discuss the growing unrest in Iran. Farzam is a visiting profesor at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute. Lees meer
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Divsallar
Timestamps
0:00-9:30 – Why these Iranian protests are different
9:30-16:00 – What’s up with the Supreme Leader?
16:00-20:46 – Regional response
31:28-48:30 – the Iran Nuclear Deal/relations with Russia
48:30-end – Turkey
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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What's Up With This Market?
7 oktober 2022 · 56 min
This market is absolutely wild, with the Fed trying to be both proactive and reactive simultaneously, and the lads try to tackle the underlying reasons + the future. Also China's role in the markets (and their drought), the politics surrounding Saudi Arabia's strange move on Oil this week, and much more! Lees meer
Timestamps:
0:08-16:40 – U.S. Macro Overview
16:40 - 25:30 – China
25:30 - 45:00 – Saudi Arabia/Oil
45:00 - End – Brazil
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Agricultural Currents: Food Prices, Fertilizer, & The Future
3 oktober 2022 · 1 uur 15 min
Neil Townsend hops back onto the pod to discuss the underlying agricultural currents shifting beneath the surface of our geopolitical landscape. Lees meer
Food and fertilizer prices are up, Brazil and China are facing epic droughts, and the future of food production globally is uncertain.
Is this news? No. Are there technological and economic innovations that are drastically changing our ability to cope with these issues? Tune in to find out!
Neil Townsend is the Chief Market Analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions and GrainFox
Farmlink Solutions Event on Oct 13: https://www.farmlinksolutions.ca/frombintobank/
Timestamps
1:40-8:25 – Global food prices
8:25-23:18 – Fertilizer & Russia/Ukraine War
23:18-32.55 – Brazil/USD
32:55-44:04 – China
44:04-1:17:00 – Future of agriculture
1:17:00-end – Key takeaways
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Cutting the Red Tape: US Infrastructure, Pipeline Mysteries, & China
30 september 2022 · 57 min
Why do we have 700 gigawatts (total US electricity capacity is currently 1,150GW) of solar capacity awaiting permits, approval, or connection to the US power grid? What does the future of US infrastructure look like? Lees meer
Is the Nord Stream Pipeline being sabotaged? Who would benefit from that?
Chairman Xi is on the brink of declaring himself lifetime leader of the Communist Party; what does that mean for the Chinese political experiment?
Timestamps
1:25 - 9:20 – USA
9:00 - 33:30 – Pipeline Mysteries
33:30 - end – China
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Can We Realistically Tame Inflation?
23 september 2022 · 1 uur 7 min
The Euro is below parity with the dollar and Japan's government intervened with the yen for the first time in a number of decades. Join Rob and Jacob as they talk through inflation woes, Europe's inevitable gains, and much more! Lees meer
Timestamps:
1:05-13:00 – U.S. Inflation
13:00-23:00 – Still bullish Europe
23:00-36:00 – Turkey/Iran/Uzbekistan
36:00-49:56 – Japan
50:00- end – Brazil
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Ukraine Is Winning
19 september 2022 · 56 min
Ukraine’s counteroffensive last week was shockingly effective. Sim rejoins the show to explain what is happening on the ground…and to tease out the chances and attendant implications of a Russian defeat. Lees meer
Sim Tack is Military Analyst at Force Analysis and GEOINT Analyst at AllSource Analysis. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack.
NYTimes article referenced here
TimeStamps:
1:54-11:15 – What’s happening?
11:15-23:35 – Ukraine’s Strategy
23:35-28:04 – Europe’s Resolve
28:04-42:10 – Russia’s Options
42:10-end – Implications of Russia’s Defeat
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Emotion, Objectivity, and Investing
16 september 2022 · 57 min
We tackle inflation, Ukraine, Long Europe and... emotional investing? Lees meer
Jacob and Rob meander into some larger and more philosophical questions about their abilities to distance themselves from the emotional impact of being entangled in the markets. Investment decisions have real life impacts on real people, and disentangling yourself from the emotional impact can be a tenuous or even painful.
Timestamps:
1:15-18:31 – Inflation
18:31-32:30 – Ukraine
32:30-38:54 – Psychology of Analysis
38:54-53:22 – Long Europe
53:22–end – Wait... Brazil is booming?
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Return of the Pod!
9 september 2022 · 1 uur 3 min
Jacob is back! The markets went nowhere (and everywhere, depending on how you look at it)! Lees meer
Hop back in to hear Jacob and Rob run through:
Market Overview - 1:40-9:15
We like Europe - 9:15-19:20
China/Japan, Yuan/Yen - 19:20-32:20
Chile, Copper, U.S., Energy Transition - 32:20-47:55
Pakistan + India - 47:55-end
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Geopolitics and Cyberwarfare (+ Bitcoin Neutrality)
29 augustus 2022 · 1 uur 4 min
Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere, breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity. Lees meer
Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin.
Timestamps:
1:37 - 20:20 - Cyberwarfare
20:20 - 28:00- 5G + China + Huawei
28:00 - 34:44 - Trust Networks
34:30 - 45:35 - Has there every been a full-on cyber war?
45:35 - End - Let's talk bitcoin!
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Whose Fault Is It Anyway? The Sino-Australian Breakup
22 augustus 2022 · 1 uur 10 min
Take some time with us to explore the Sino-Australian breakup drama and hear an honest opinion from a real life Australian (his name is John Fowler and he's a former Australian diplomat and international lawyer) on why relations between the two are slowly but surely deteriorating. John and Jacob also talk AUS/NZ relations, viewpoints on the South Pacific and much, much, much more. Lees meer
John is co-founder and CEO of International Intrigue, a newsletter at the intersection of geopolitics, business, and technology. We've included a link because you should go subscribe to it.
TimeStamps:
2:30-19:37 – Australia/China relations
19:37-25:20 – Australia/New Zealand relations
25:20-39:32 – The South Pacific
39:32-46:30 – Indonesia
46:30-57:57 – Latin America/France/Antarctica
57:59-1:05:30 – Taiwan
1:05:30 – International Intrigue
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Uncertain Fed, Certain PBC?
19 augustus 2022 · 54 min
Weekly Update! Catch this week's convo on: Lees meer
The uncertainty spilling out of the Federal Reserve (1:35 - 14:40)
China's economy (14:40 - 20:00)
Latin American Markets (20:00 - 24:40)
Japan Rising (24:40 - 31:20)
Europe's Energy Crisis/Opportunity (31:20 - End)
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Here Be Animal Spirits
15 augustus 2022 · 1 uur 10 min
How do inflationary cycles work? Are we in a tech innovation environment or are we just iterating on the same old concepts? Also, what constitutes "old"? Jordi Visser joins us this week to discuss these questions and much, much more (yes, we mean China). Lees meer
Jordi Visser is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC, a market neutral pioneer of the asset management industry. At Weiss, Jordi oversees the portfolio managers and is responsible for the overall risk aggregation. Additionally, he is the architect and a portfolio manager for the Weiss Alternative Multi-Strategy Fund (Ticker: WEISX).
Weiss Morning Seeds: https://hubs.la/Q01jhfjY0
Weiss Insights: https://hubs.la/Q01jhftd0
Weiss Podcast Page: https://hubs.la/Q01jhgds0
Timestamps:
2:20-14:42 – Inflation/Deflation
14:42-35:50 – Tech/longevity
35:50-45:38 – mRNA
45:38-1:03:30 – Energy
1:03:00 – end – China
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Coffee, Chocolate, China (and Inflation)
12 augustus 2022 · 1 uur 10 min
Weekly Update! J&R talk markets, China, the future of South Africa and Brazil, and trends popping up in the coffee and chocolate trade! Lees meer
Timestamps:
2:47-13:30 – U.S. CPI/Market overview
13:30-22:47 – China update
22:47-40:17 – South Africa, Brazil, and Strategic Wealth
40:17 – end – Coffee and Chocolate
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Water We Waiting For? The Decline of Fresh Water
8 augustus 2022 · 1 uur 2 min
Peter Mayer discusses the history the Colorado River Basin - and why it's a canary in the coal mine for the waves of water issues already sweeping the globe. Water access conflicts are going to escalate both nationally and internationally as the globe heats and our atmosphere's composition fluctuates. Peter and Jacob dive into the conflicts already occurring, ( eg. the Georgia vs. Florida water wars), the future of agriculture, and how we conserve water for posterity. Lees meer
Peter is a professional engineer and urban water expert and the Principal and Founder of Water Demand Management. For more than 25 years, his work has focused on urban water management, water use patterns, assessing the impact of water rate structures and metering, evaluating water conservation measures and programs, forecasting future demand with and without conservation, preparing water conservation plans and conducting water supply scenario analysis.
Link to Lake Mead pics: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150111/lake-mead-keeps-dropping
Peter’s website: https://www.waterdm.com/
TimeStamps
2:34-30:30 – Colorado River Basin
30:30-42:30 – Georgia v. Florida on water. (If I could have this on in the background during this section I would.)
42:30-50:30 – Agriculture
50:30 – Pete’s past
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Weekly Update: Rising Yen, China Real Estate, and Investing in Nuclear
5 augustus 2022 · 48 min
This weeks discussion covers the rising Yen, the awkard bubble that constitutes the Chinese real estate market, and what it looks like to invest in nuclear in the 21st century. Hint: Nuclear and Coal have a lot of animosity to overcome between their respective camps. Lees meer
Timestamps
1:12-24:00 – Around the world + China + Taiwan
24:00-30:50 – The Japanese Yen
30:50-end – Turning Coal into Nuclear
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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The Art of Geopolitics w/ Stratfor
1 augustus 2022 · 1 uur 12 min
Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange. Lees meer
Timestamps
3:00-25:13: Mackinder and the Arctic
25:13-34:30: The Art of the Net Assessment
34:30-44:30: The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come
44:30-56:54: Will China invade Taiwan?
56:54-end: Around the world: Poland, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Brazil, and more
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Weekly Update: Is China on a Treadmill to Hell?
29 juli 2022 · 1 uur 15 min
Why is no one talking about China's real estate crisis (aside from Rob and Jacob)??? Lees meer
It's an issue with global ramifications, extremely high stakes for China's economy, and even higher stakes for the 1.4 billion people who live inside the PRC.
Timestamps
2:00-13:00 – Markets overview
13:00 - end – China real estate crisis
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Weekly Update: Markets, Markets, Italy!
22 juli 2022 · 53 min
Jacob and Rob talk US Markets, Investing (as a concept), and Italy's wild new (yet old) future. Lees meer
Timestamps
1:50-14:35 – Rob’s update on U.S. markets/$DHI
14:35-22:15 – Discipline of Investing
22:15-41:08 – ECB/Italy
41:08 - End Technocrats, populists, democrats, oh my!
Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.
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Economy, Energy, and The Odds Of a Recession
18 juli 2022 · 1 uur 29 min
Marko and Jacob explore the rumbles in the US Economy, energy trends, and geopolitical headwinds across the hemispheres. Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. Lees meer
Timestamps:
2:00-14:00 – U.S. Economy
14:00-21:36 – Oil/Natural Gas
21:36-35:54 – Europe
35:54-42:00 – China
42:00-52:52 – Saudi Arabia
50:52-59:11 – India
59:11-1:10:11 – Food
1:10:11-1:16:31 – Recession odds
1:16:31- end: Basketball