Alle afleveringen
291 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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In Moscow's Shadows 221: Is the Sun Rising over Russo-Japanese Relations?
26 oktober 2025 · 39 min
The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy? Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'?
12 oktober 2025 · 45 min
Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be getting a new head. What does this mean for the internal struggles to replace the ailing current director, Bortnikov? Is 'crown prince' Sergei Korolev finally going to take his place? And what might this mean? Lees meer
My previous look at Korolev was in In Moscow's Shadows 171: The invisible and invidious Sergei Korolev, perhaps the next head of the FSB (20 Oct. 2024) and I branded Nikolai Patrushev 'the most dangerous man in Russia' way, way back in In Moscow's Shadows 6: The Most Dangerous Man in Russia (14 June 2020).
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai
5 oktober 2025 · 50 min
Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics, as everyone oversimplifies a complex world. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?
28 september 2025 · 59 min
We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. Maybe, then, a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders... Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?
21 september 2025 · 52 min
MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala's new book 'If Russia Wins' to wonder if the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work?
14 september 2025 · 48 min
Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically ready." I suspect this may be a stretch, but it is worth considering what might and might not work. Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow. Lees meer
As I mention, the revised and updated version of my book We Need To Talk About Putin is published in the UK by Penguin on 13 November, and is available for pre-order. Elsewhere, it may take longer for physical editions to be on sale, but the e-book should be available around the same time.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups
7 september 2025 · 49 min
The 1991 August Coup and the 1993 October Coup are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I'll argue is that together, they inadvertently paved the way for Putin. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 214: Law and Lawlessness in Late Putinism (or, Late Brezhnevism redux)
31 augustus 2025 · 45 min
The FSB is trumpeting its arrests of Ukrainian saboteurs and demanding more surveillance powers. Prosecutor General Krasnov is set to become the chair of the Supreme Court. Figures have been released showing that corruption cases rose 16% in the first half of the year. Put together, how do these highlight the hollowing out of Russia, the convergence of late Putinism and late Brezhnevism? Lees meer
Information about forthcoming book events are here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 213: Foreign Agents in Russia, Foreigners in Ukraine...
24 augustus 2025 · 50 min
After a brief comment on the frozen peace process, I look at the case of Sergei Markov, voluble Kremlin loyalist, who has just been declared a Foreign Agents. What's going on - he seems to have been caught by Russia's escalating feud with Azerbaijan - and what does this say about the decay of late Putinism? Lees meer
In the second half, I consider three recent books and what they say about how we discuss and think about the war in Ukraine. They are:
Colin Freeman, The Mad and the Brave. The Untold Story of Ukraine’s Foreign Legion (Mudlark)
Tom Mutch, The Dogs Of Mariupol (Biteback)
Medea Benjamin & Nicholas Davies, War In Ukraine. Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict, 2nd Ed (OR Books)
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 212: War and Peace and Alaska
17 augustus 2025 · 46 min
Alaska was owned by Russia - was the summit also? Where is the world after the Alaska summit? Putin won, but did Trump really lose (I'd suggest not really, because his interests are not that opposed)? And if - if - we are any closer to a peace, what might that look like? Lees meer
Tickets for the Waterstones book event I mentioned in London on 4 September are available here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 211: Trump, Putin, Alaska...
10 augustus 2025 · 46 min
So Trump and Putin are meeting in Alaska on Friday. Are we on the brink of peace in Ukraine or another mess? I wish I could be more optimistic. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 210: Is Russia Being Sentenced To The Digital Gulag?
27 juli 2025 · 45 min
With calls for WhatsApp to be banned and searching for 'extremist' material punishable by fines, there is much talk of a 'North Koreanisation' of Russia, of a 'digital gulag.' After a first half looking at developments in Ukraine, the war and international perceptions of threat, I dive into this issue. There are some interesting parallels with Soviet times, with different generations having different ideas about quite what to do with the online world. Lees meer
More details on my forthcoming new book Homo Criminalis: how crime organises the world, here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 209: Eagle, Dragon, Bear - how the Ukraine war drives Moscow into Beijing's orbit
20 juli 2025 · 52 min
In the first half, I offer a (rather pessimistic) assessment of not just Trump's 50-day ultimatum but also recent EU and UK sanctions, before pivoting to explore how the US president has inadvertently made it clear that it is not him but China's Xi Jinping who has more influence with Putin. What is the nature of the Sino-Russian relationship, and where is it going? Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 208: 5 Million Downloads and Counting! A Q&A Compilation
13 juli 2025 · 57 min
In Moscow's Shadows has crossed the 5 million downloads barrier! This happens to coincide with this being an episode in which I tackle Patrons' questions on everything from why Russians fight and Chinese legal and criminal influence in the Russian Far East through to who would play whom in the film 'Death of Putin', and my own impartiality. Enjoy! Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow?
6 juli 2025 · 45 min
In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gangsters in Ekaterinburg. But it's bigger than that, and I locate the conflict in the context of Russia's receding role as regional hegemon, the politics of personalised authoritarianisms, and the agency and agendas of low-level political actors. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 206: Corruption, Putinism's Achilles' Heel
29 juni 2025 · 57 min
After some thoughts about the recent NATO summit in The Hague, I focus on the perennial challenge of corruption. Even Russian officials are admitting it is again on the rise, and becoming more predatory, While there is a regular litany of middle-ranking officials charged and sentenced, there is no political will to tackle grand corruption at the top of the system -- and declining capacity to combat its resurgence at the bottom. What does all this mean for the system? Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War
22 juni 2025 · 59 min
There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the Soviet war in Afghanistan is any comparison, arguably every bit as important will be the narratives, how people frame the war and use it to attack or defend Putin's regime. I feel this is a political challenge they are not well suited to master. Lees meer
My report Trouble at home: Russia's looming demobilization challenge can be downloaded from the Global Initiative site here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 204: The Opportunity and the Threat, Moscow and Iran, Moscow and the West
15 juni 2025 · 57 min
In the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under the bus? He certainly has much more scope and reason to do so than in 2022-24. Lees meer
In the second half, I climb onto my soapbox to consider -- criticise -- some recent rhetoric about the Russian threat and bemoan the lack of dialogue, especially military-to-military contacts, with praise for the wargame Littoral Commander: the Baltics (Dietz Foundation) and David Fields & Robert Avery’s book The Royal And Russian Navies. Cooperation, Competition & Confrontation (Manchester UP).
The Spectator piece I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 203: Can Putin Afford To End The War?
8 juni 2025 · 57 min
A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 202: What Is This Resilience Thing Anyway?
29 mei 2025 · 57 min
An IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, needs must... Lees meer
In the first part, I look at recent development around Ukraine. Then, in the second, I look at the recent 'electoral wargame' held by Conducttr and spin off that more broadly to consider the challenges of 'resiliency' in a political sense (rather than infrastructure, etc)
Robert Hall's book is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 201: Peacetalkers and Warfighters
18 mei 2025 · 50 min
Negotiations (of a sort) in Istanbul: a real engagement or just a piece of theatre? The answer, of course, is a bit of both. Lees meer
And what can one read into the elevation of Colonel General Mordvichev as the new commander of Russian Ground Forces?
The link to the Conducttr wargame I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 200: Victory Day (whose?)
11 mei 2025 · 44 min
The 200th episode! Hard to believe. Lees meer
After briefly assessing Putin's late-night offer of talks with Kyiv, I dig into the Victory Day parade and what it means, especially from an international angle, and how it was part of a love letter to Xi Jinping.
The events I mentioned next week in Prague are at CEVRO University, the Institute of International Relations and the Prague Book Festival, with the launch of Zrozeni z Války, the Czech translation of my book Forged in War.
The forthcoming events page on my blog is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 199: the General in GenPop
4 mei 2025 · 50 min
General Ivan Popov, once hailed as one of the heroes and rising stars of the Russian army, has just been sentenced to 5 years in a general regime penal colony on what seem questionable charges. What brought down this 'fighting general' -- and what does it tell us about late Putinism and the potential nationalist critique of the regime? Lees meer
The sign-up page for the Conducttr info-political wargame I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 198: War (in Russia's underworld) and Peace (in Ukraine)?
27 april 2025 · 53 min
In the first half, I consider the latest twists in the saga of the US-pushed 'ceasefire' plan. Has Trump has an epiphany in the Vatican, or will Kyiv still face a choice of evils? Lees meer
In the second, I draw a line between the gunning down of a mobster in Tbilisi with the twilight of Putinism, through leaking roofs and the likelihood of mob wars.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 197: Russia's future fascist turn?
20 april 2025 · 50 min
An intemperate recent interview from Foreign Minister Lavrov, at which he warned that 'fifth columnists' within the elite wanted to hand Russia to the West on a platter, is typical of a new tome of populist nationalism that got me wondering. Putin's Russia is often called 'fascist' but this is a label of dubious accuracy. Are there hints that Russia could turn fascist? I still think this will not happen, but it is something worth exploring. Lees meer
The Bell, by the way, is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 196: Space, the Failing Frontier
13 april 2025 · 48 min
In the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former FSB general Sergei Beseda, 'the Baron.' Lees meer
In the second half, for Cosmonautics Day, I look at the ailing Russian space programme.
The FPRI report by Pavel Luzin I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 195: Q&A, Part 2
9 april 2025 · 52 min
A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media! Lees meer
The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here.
The RUSI commentary on the OSCE is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 194: Q&A, Part 1
6 april 2025 · 1 uur
Comrades! Lees meer
Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more...
The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest the war on Ukraine’ is here.
The National Guard report I mention, Putin's Praetorians: The Evolving Role Of The National Guard And Their Capacity To Control The Streets , is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 193: Mishustin's Annual Report: what he says, what he doesn't
30 maart 2025 · 59 min
One, I suspect, more for the wonks. I dig into Prime Minister Mishustin's lengthy and not-so-exciting annual report to parliament, and the responses from the 'opposition' for what is said, and what's not. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 192: What if Ukraine could join the EU in months, not years?
23 maart 2025 · 58 min
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or frozen...). What if it could be in months not years? It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, but let's entertain it as a 'what if?' thought experiment. Lees meer
PS: I got my digits muddled: it's Article 42, clause 7 of the Treaty if Europe I ment, not 47(7).
In the second half, I look at three recent deeply-engaged eyewitness books on Ukraine:
· Battleground Ukraine by Adrian Karatnicky (Yale Up, 2024)
· Our Enemies Will Vanish by Yaroslav Trofimov (Michael Joseph 2024)
· I Will Show You How It Was by Illia Ponomarenko (Bloomsbury, 2024)
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 191: How is Russian Foreign Policy Made?
16 maart 2025 · 52 min
What shapes Russian foreign policy? I start by looking at the core issue of the moment, Moscow's thinking over the proposed ceasefire, then consider more broadly what kind of a bizarre and varied mix of institutions and individuals actually shape policy. Lees meer
The Sunday Times article I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 190: Sanctions, Spies, and Suspect Legitimacy
9 maart 2025 · 51 min
Reflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Trump's apparent threat to increase sanctions on Russia to a spy case in the UK. Lees meer
In the second half, I look at two recent books, Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin's Russia, edited by Helge Blakkisrud & Pål Kolstø (Edinburgh UP) and Jeremy Morris’s Everyday Politics in Russia. From Resentment to Resistance, (Bloomsbury) and use them to spin off a discussion about legitimacy in modern Russia.
The piece ‘Recycling to resist,’ I mentioned by Alexandrina Vanke, is in the Sociological Review here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 189: Oval Office Mugging and Russia's Police in Crisis
2 maart 2025 · 49 min
Much as I would love not to have to keep talking about Trump, it's inevitable that I cover the extraordinary events of this week: Trump as King Lear, demanding obsequious flattery, Zelensky perhaps ought not to have made the trip to DC. So where now? Lees meer
And in the second half, the Russian police in crisis, demoralised, under-strength and with corruption again on the rise. Another very real success story of early Putinism, police reform, being devoured by the war and late Putinism.
The video of the Global Strategy Forum event I mentioned is here, the Sunday Times article (paywalled) is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 188: War and Peace and Trump
23 februari 2025 · 48 min
In a more-freeform-than usual episode, I consider the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, why Trump is such a Putin fanboy (more about being a wannabe strongman than because of any kompromat), and what this means for peace in Ukraine. The summary? There is no deal on Ukraine, and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but there is at least a chance for some kind of a deal. Maybe. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 187: Tatarstan
9 februari 2025 · 49 min
As Russia-watchers, we know that Russia is not just Russian, or Russian Orthodox, but there is also a glib assumption that to be Muslim or otherwise a minority is to be depressed, repressed, and suppressed. So how to explain Tatarstan, one of the few regions where the titular nationality is a majority (54% Tatar, 54% Muslim), yet one which seems to work well enough within the Russian Federation? Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Ukrainskii Sindrom
3 februari 2025 · 19 min
Originally one of the 'Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas' bonuses for Patrons, in this short pod I explore whether, when the soldiers come home, Russia is likely to experience a problem of a dispossessed and alienated generation akin to the 'Afghan Syndrome' which faced the veterans of the Soviet Afghan war. Sadly, the answer is probably so. Lees meer
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In Moscow's Shadows 186: Why is Putin's Russia so Prone to Conspiracy Theories?
2 februari 2025 · 48 min
The Russian response to Tucker Carlson's claim that the Biden administration tried to assassinate Putin has to a large extent been driven by political expediency -- it makes a great propaganda narrative -- but there does seem to be more to it than that? Why is modern Russia, from Putin down, so prone to seeing the world through a conspiratorial lens, everything determined by behind-the-scenes forces and shadowy secret masters? And what does this mean for policy? Does Russia really still own Alaska, was COVID brewed in Georgia, is Putin kept alive by Orthodox rituals? (Spoiler alert: no. no and no) Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 185: The One With All The Stuff
26 januari 2025 · 51 min
How else, frankly, to title an episode which covers Trump and Putin, the CIA's Ukrainian cooperation, Russo-Iranian and -Indian relations, Belarus, and four books on Crimea's history? Lees meer
The Vlad Vexler commentary I mentioned is here. The Moscow Times article on Russian-Indian relations is here.
The four books I cover are:
The Eurasian Steppe by Warwick Ball (Edinburgh University Press, 2021)
'A Seditious and Sinister Tribe': the Crimean Tatars and their Khanate by Donald Rayfield (Reaktion, 2024)
Crimea: a history by Neil Kent (Hurst, 2024)
Crimean Quagmire: Tolstoi, Russell and the Birth of Modern Warfare by Gregory Carleton (Hurst, 2024)The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 184: One Hundred Years of Companionship?
18 januari 2025 · 46 min
The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed opportunities) for supporting Kyiv? Lees meer
The texts are available here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 183: War and Peace (and Public Opinion)
12 januari 2025 · 42 min
We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for conditioning the decisions the respective governments may make. Lees meer
The various articles and surveys I cite are:
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung : https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21742.pdf
Russian Field : https://russianfield.com/svo16
Gallup : https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Meduza : https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/09/we-expected-the-war-to-end
PS Lab : https://publicsociologylab.com/en
New Yorker : https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-support-the-war-in-ukraine
Vedomosti : https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2024/12/25/1083523-vnimanie-cherez-silu
Ukrainska Pravda : https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2025/01/9/7492626/
Russia Post : https://russiapost.info/politics/ceasefireThe podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 182: Things To Watch in 2025
5 januari 2025 · 55 min
Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025? Lees meer
For those who get lost in the flow, they are:
PERSONALIA
· Elvira Nabiullina
· Ramzan Kadyrov
· Alexander Khinshtein
· Alexei Dyumin
· Sergei Naryshkin
· Nikolai Patrushev
· (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino)
INSTITS
· Security Council
· FSB
· State Council
PROCESSES
· ‘Covert federalisation’
· Lateral alliances
· End of party pseudo-politics?
· Rise of SVO generation?
· Labour shortage
· Deviancy
POLICIES
· Shadow War
· Africa/North Africa
· India
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 181: Strap in for a Bumpy 2025
29 december 2024 · 35 min
Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connects them beyond a sense that, having changed his rules of engagement abroad in 2024, Putin may find this coming to bite him in 2025. Either way, it looks like the coming year will be a bumpy one, to say the least. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 180: Keep Calm and Carry On
22 december 2024 · 58 min
What can one learn from Putin's 4½-hour-long end of year press conference? Essentially, his message to his people is that - however they might feel - everything is fine and they should stay the course. Meanwhile, over Ukraine if anything his line may be hardening: he may talk of 'compromise', but is trying to define the terms of any future peace. Anyway, I listened to 4½ hours, and offer you only one hour... Lees meer
The article by Joshua Huminski I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 179: Sex, Drugs & Rocky Roads
15 december 2024 · 52 min
We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is time to look at some of the less often discussed problems that nonetheless characterise the emerging Russian 'polycrisis': demographics, the mephedrone epidemic, and crumbling transport infrastructure: sex, drugs and rocky roads. Lees meer
The OSW report on demographics I mentioned is here; the Global Initiative report on drugs is here.
My IWM podcast on Syria with Misha Glenny and Eva Konzett is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 178: Assad la vista, baby - what does Damascus's fall mean for Russia?
8 december 2024 · 46 min
So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes. Lees meer
That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lund is at:
https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-civil-war-has-roared-back-how-far-can-the-rebels-go/
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 177: Adaptation in Russia and Ukraine
1 december 2024 · 50 min
President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation? Lees meer
And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and economic struggle, to bring them to this position.
The books are:
Christopher Lawrence, The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline, 2023)
Mick Ryan, The War for Ukraine. Strategy and adaptation under fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024)
Stephanie Baker, Punishing Putin. Inside the global economic war to bring down Russia (Simon & Schuster, 2024)
Charles Hecker, Zero Sum. The arc of international business in Russia (Hurst, 2024)
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 176: Is Andrei Belousov the Lavrov of the Defence Ministry?
24 november 2024 · 56 min
Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his rise and his chances of achieving anything in his current role? Lees meer
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 175: 'In a dangerous world, strike first' - Russian strategic culture
17 november 2024 · 49 min
'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- it helps explain Putin's own decisions. Lees meer
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show
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In Moscow's Shadows 174: Putin, Trump, and the 'Polyphonic' world order
10 november 2024 · 37 min
It's impossible to avoid talking about the potential implications of Donald Trump's election, even as its difficult to know for sure what he intends and almost as hard to say anything that hasn't already been said. I have a go, though, after considering Putin's hour-long speech and epic (or exhausting) 3-hour Q&A on the 'polyphonic' world order at Valdai. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 173: Personalistic Power under Putin
3 november 2024 · 50 min
I use reviews of three books to consider the risks and limitations of personalistic explanations of power under Putin, and whether a medieval concept of clan and family actually makes more sense... Lees meer
The books are:
THE WIZARD OF THE KREMLIN by GIULIANO DA EMPOLI (Pushkin Press)
THE KREMLIN’S NOOSE. PUTIN’S BITTER FEUD WITH THE OLIGARCH WHO MADE HIM RULER OF RUSSIA by AMY KNIGHT (Icon Books and Cornell UP)
THE RULING FAMILIES OF RUS. CLAN, FAMILY AND KINGDOM, by CHRISTIAN RAFFENSPERGER and DONALD OSTROWSKI (Reaktion Books)
The Inozemtsev piece I mention is here, and my review of the play Patriots is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
Support the show