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291 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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In Moscow's Shadows 172: BRICS without Straw
26 oktober 2024 · 39 min
(It seems to be obligatory to use a weak BRICS/bricks pun, so I felt I had to follow...) Lees meer
The BRICS summit in Kazan (a smart place to hold it) gives all the appearances of being a propaganda win for Putin. However, I think it emphasised that in a new 'multipolar' world, he only has the friends he can afford to rent -- and some day the bill will become due.
In the second half, I question whether Russia is genuinely falling back into the 'wild 90s'. Perhaps the 'stagnant 70s'? Or the 'decaying 80s'? Or -- my favourite -- the 'braindead 10s'. Either way, these historical parallels should be considered no more than thought laboratories.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows bonus minipodcast: North Koreans in Russia?
21 oktober 2024 · 16 min
Released to Patrons yesterday, a bonus mini-pod on the claims that North Korean combat troops are heading to fight in Ukraine and what the media discussion also says about the current discourse. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 171: The invisible and invidious Sergei Korolev, perhaps the next head of the FSB
20 oktober 2024 · 48 min
An all-spook episode, as I try to piece together the rise of FSB First Deputy Director Sergei Korolev, who seems the most likely figure to succeed current agency chief Bortnikov. Corruption, clientelism, feuds, the power of the St Petersburg clique, and the implications if Korolev does rise. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 170: The Opposition Soap Opera
13 oktober 2024 · 48 min
At times it does look as if the emigre liberal opposition to Putin is in such a mess that it looks like a soap opera. So what are some of the recent plot twists and why are they so divided -- and, ultimately, is it necessarily such a bad thing? Lees meer
In the second half, should Russians have collective guilt for Putin and the war? I don't think so, and explain why -- and why it matters.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 169: The GUSP, the most secret of Russia's secret services
6 oktober 2024 · 47 min
The appointment to the Security Council of Alexander Linets, head of the Main Directorate of Special Programs of the President of the Russian Federation (GUSP), is a suitable moment to look into this, the most secret of Russia's security agencies. Is it about more than just bunkers and the continuity of governance in an apocalypse? Is there any truth that it is the final 'watcher over the watchers,' does secret jobs for the president, and even protects him against psychic attack? I lay out what we know, but have to admit, it's not very much. (Although I'm willing to discount the paranormal side of things.) Lees meer
In the second half, I review two books relating to the security state: Kevin Riehle's The Russian FSB (Georgetown UP, 2024) and N M Borodin's memoir One Man in His Time (Pushkin Press, 2024).
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 168: Putin Wants Us To Have Nuclear Nightmares
29 september 2024 · 43 min
Putin's at it again, raising nuclear fears to unsettle the West. Or is the new revision to Russian nuclear doctrine more than just a bit of sabre-rattling? I suggest it is, with bearing on potential Ukrainian endgames. But we ought not to become too fearful: as I discuss in the second half, there are good reasons for him not to use his non-strategic nuclear weapons. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 167: Shoigu Redux
21 september 2024 · 47 min
While the Security Council itself is having its time wasted with trivia, new Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been busy. How has he survived (is it the shaman connection? It is not), and what do his goals seem to be? Lees meer
And, with President Zelensky about to unveil his 'victory plan', are the two sides beginning to contemplate possible endgames?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 166: Raider Nation, a quick news round-up
18 september 2024 · 19 min
I still haven't decided how/if to continue with these mid-week quickfire podcasts picking up on some news stories that catch my eye, but in the meantime, there's a divorce/business shootout in Moscow, more traffic fines (it matters, believe me) and another general under arrest. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 165: Prince Bogdoi, Information Logjams and Public-Private Empire
15 september 2024 · 58 min
What may a misadventure from 17th century Russian imperial history tell us about modern Russia? Why, about the perils of information logjams and public-private empires! Lees meer
Details of the Pushkin House event I mentioned are here, and the Pertsev article is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 164: From Ballots to Babies, a quick news round-up
12 september 2024 · 26 min
As promised, a quickfire interim episode covering some of the past week's stories, from drones over Moscow and reactions to the US presidential debate to regional elections and planning for babies... Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 163: The Importance of Optimism (even when it comes to Russia)
8 september 2024 · 51 min
I spin off two recent books, Elena Kostychenko's, I Love Russia. Reporting from a lost country and Sergei Medvedev's A War Made in Russia, both of which are excellent in their own terms, but also demonstrate something of a tendency for Russian intelligentsia to despair at their own country and people and fixate on the very worse. This is perhaps understandable but, as I suggest, neither accurate nor helpful as an influence on Western policy. Lees meer
The Chicago Council report I mentioned is here, the OpenMinds report here. The interview with Evgeny Stupin is here, and REM's twitter handle is @russian_monitor
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 162: Lavrov's (Living) Obituary
1 september 2024 · 48 min
Empty rumours of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's death on the internet yesterday, got me thinking about his shrinking role, and the twilight of Russia's technocrats. Besides, he is already politically dead, so it’s in a way not too early to deliver his obituary and use that to consider some of the dilemmas and characteristics of senior figures who are technocrats, not Putin cronies. Lees meer
The Pushkin House even I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 161: What's Going On in Russian Prisons?
25 augustus 2024 · 56 min
After another armed hostage taking by inmates (and bloody response), I consider what’s going on in Russia’s prisons, and what it may tell us about what’s happening in Russia as a whole. And in the last segment, I consider attitudes to Prigozhin, a year after his death. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 160: Kursk as Political Actor and Allegory
18 augustus 2024 · 58 min
As Ukraine's Kursk incursion rumbles on, what does it tell us about the political processes in Russia behind the warfighting? From how Russians really aren't apathetic and however low their expectations of their government may be, and do have a breaking point, to how Putin depends on and betrays his men on the spot, rumination about some wider developments and an historical parallel with the Time of Troubles.... Lees meer
The Andras Toth-Cifra piece on governors I mentioned is here, the FreshLabs findings are here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 159: The Kursk Incursion
11 augustus 2024 · 40 min
I had hoped to not have to record a podcast this weekend, but life does enjoy its little pranks. A slightly shorter than usual episode on Ukraine's unexpected, unfolding and unpredictable move into Russia. Lees meer
The Kommersant article I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 158: A Hectic Week in Russia
4 augustus 2024 · 59 min
Where to start? The prisoner exchange and subsequent furore over released dissidents' statements? More arrests of senior military figures? The bizarre shenanigans over a controversial merger in Russian online business? Wagner's heavy losses in Mali? I try tackling them all. Lees meer
NB: Updated 5 August to reflect Ilya Yashin's subsequent further comments on the war.
The BNE Intellinews article I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 157: No Crime and Much Punishment: the Gershkovich Case and recent books on Russia's prisons
28 juli 2024 · 50 min
With Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich sentenced to 16 years on what I consider wholly spurious espionage charges (and I explain why I think this), it's a suitable moment first to consider the likely reasons but also what kind of experience faces him in the Russian prison camp system. Lees meer
That leads me on to discuss three recent books of relevance:
Vladimir Pereverzin's The Prisoner. Behind Bars in Putin's Russia (Gemini, 2024)
Jeffrey Hardy's The Soviet Gulag. History and Memory (Bloomsbury, 2023)
Barry Lewis's Gulag. A photographic journey into the darkness of Stalin's prison camps (Fistful of Books, 2024)
The Eurasian Knot podcast I mentioned with Anna Arutunyan and me talking about our book Downfall is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 156: Are Putin's Praetorians up to the challenges of the future?
21 juli 2024 · 58 min
The Rosgvardiya, the National Guard, is the final backstop of Putin's rule, the public order force on which he relies to control the streets.* However, facing growing protest at home and engaged in pacifying occupied Ukraine, they and their commander, the thuggish Viktor Zolotov, are under pressure. How well are they coping? Lees meer
*Admittedly, arguably the FSO, the Federal Protection Service, is closer to the Praetorian Guard of Roman times, but I cannot pass up on a nice alliteration...
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 155: Putin's Shadow War on the West
13 juli 2024 · 57 min
The claim that Russian intelligence planned to murder a German industrialist highlights the Kremlin's escalating campaign of mayhem and disruption in Europe, from arson to disruptive cyberattacks. Why is Putin -- who was initially rather more cautious -- now raising the stakes and, more to the point, what can we do about it? Lees meer
The Meduza report from Buryatia I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 154: What (if anything) does the Labour Party victory in the UK mean for Ukraine and Russia?
6 juli 2024 · 49 min
Will the change in government in London and Sir Keir Starmer's elevation to prime minister mean anything for Kyiv and Moscow? Are there lessons to be learned about how Moscow handles foreign elections, whether in terms of subversive operations or managing its own expectations? A few early thoughts, even though the honest answer is that not much is likely to change. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 153: Geopolitics, Nepotism, Terror and Assassination... (all the nice things)
30 juni 2024 · 1 uur 2 min
A compilation of current issues, which will nonetheless somehow connect: Lees meer
The Trump-Biden debate: what does the Kremlin really want?
Nepotism: why are the princelings returning to politics?
Terrorism in Dagestan: what does it portend?
Covert Ops: ought the West be in the assassination business?
The Spectator piece I mentioned is here.
Tickets for the 9 July book event in London I mention are available at https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/russias-future-with-mark-galeotti-anna-arutunyan-hatchards-piccadilly-tickets-924326253707?aff=oddtdtcreator
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 152: Prigozhin's Mutiny, One Year On
23 juni 2024 · 1 uur 7 min
Exactly one year after Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary army began its mutiny, what has changed, and what can be learned? And why are so many Russians so keen to believe Prigozhin himself is not dead? Lees meer
In the second half of this bumper episode, the full first chapter of the audiobook of my and Anna Arutunyan's new book Downfall. Prigozhin, Putin, and the new fight for the future of Russia (Ebury/Penguin, 2024). Out now in the UK and Europe, out in September in the US.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 151: From Switzerland to SMERSH
16 juni 2024 · 45 min
Ukraine's Ten Point Peace Plan, which received only limited endorsement at the recent Swiss Peace Summit, is essentially a demand for Russia's surrender. Putin's recent statement of conditions for negotiations is likewise a call for Kyiv to capitulate. Is this a complete impasse? Yes and no -- they are best considered as 'pre-peace positioning' in preparation for any future talks, whenever they happen, and a survey arranged by the Carnegie Endowment gives some interesting insights as to how that may go. Lees meer
In the second half, I address the periodic claims that Russia needs to re-establish SMERSH, Stalin's infamous 'Death to Spies' murder squad. Is this likely, or simply a toxic by-product of Putin's rehabilitation of the dictator?
The Carnegie survey's full results are here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 150: An Unfunny Thing Happened On The Way To The Forum
9 juni 2024 · 57 min
Putin's lengthy Q&A at the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF), in conversation with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov, provided a useful opportunity to gauge his mood and his vision for both war and peace. From whether Russia is European (yes) to whether he needs to go nuclear in Ukraine (no), one can certainly question many of his claims and assumptions, but he sounded more confident than he has in a while. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 149: Dyumin, Deterrence and a Deputy
2 juni 2024 · 55 min
An episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anything) is interesting about Denis Manturov, the new First Deputy PM? Lees meer
The previous podcast in which I talk about Dyumin and Tula is #48, here.
The article I wrote with Ekaterina Schulmann comparing the State and Security Councils is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 148: 'Purging' the Military; the politics of anti-corruption in a corrupt system
26 mei 2024 · 45 min
What is behind the current spate of corruption-related arrests within the Russian military? Fears of a coup, an FSB takeover, punishing the generals for a badly-fought war? I'd say it is what it seems, an attempt to tackle waste in a time of war. That doesn't mean this kleptocracy is changing its spots, though: even within corrupt systems, anti-corruption campaigns can be mobilised for a range of purposes. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 147: The Reshuffle, Or Change To Preserve Things As They Are
19 mei 2024 · 56 min
There has been an unexpectedly interesting and extensive reshuffle of the Russian government, but what does it mean? I suggest it is about creating an enduring militarised, mobilised state, preserving Putin's rule not least through elevating a new generation of leaders and preparing to play generations against each other. Lees meer
Details of the 28 May Cambridge event I mentioned (including the livestream link) are here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 146: Britain and Russia, Eternal Frenemies
12 mei 2024 · 46 min
Reading Barbara Emerson's excellent The First Cold War: Anglo-Russian Relations in the 19th Century got me thinking more about the nature of British-Russian relations, which really date back to the 16th century, why we each loom so large in the other's geopolitical imagination, and why Russia is torn between extreme Anglophilia and Anglophobia. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 145: How Corruption Works Under Putin
5 mei 2024 · 54 min
The case of Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, long known as 'king of the kickback,' but only now arrested and charged, provides a good opportunity to consider how corruption is so central to Putin's system, not simply as a reward mechanism to pay off the loyal, but also as a control mechanism and even a social one. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 144: Of Talks and Thugs
21 april 2024 · 1 uur 7 min
In the first part, I talk about some of the issues raised by a recent article in Foreign Affairs by Sam Charap and Sergei Radchenko for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia whenever they actually happen. Lees meer
In the second I dig into the rise and challenges of Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard.
The Foreign Affairs article I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 143: Of MICE and Man
14 april 2024 · 59 min
Why are some individuals, parties, even countries still so willing to believe (or at least affect to believe) Putin's nonsense? As a way of trying to explain it, I turn to the intelligence recruitment acronym MICE: Money, Ideology, Compromise and Ego. Lees meer
In the second half, I look at another potential up-and-comer, Yuri Trutnev, deputy PM and presidential representative of the Far East, and wonder if he might have a non-standard political trajectory in mind.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 142: Heresies and Revolutions
7 april 2024 · 53 min
Is Putin's Russia becoming a revolutionary state? A recent article on RT by Dmitry Trenin, once one of the doyens of Russian foreign policy analysis, suggests so, but perhaps doesn't go far enough. I consider Trenin's piece in conjunction with others by Fedor Lukyanov and one Henry Johnston, to wonder whether Putin, in so many ways the arch conservative, is being forced to reinvent himself as a revolutionary under pressure of events since his invasion of Ukraine. Lees meer
PS: I did say it wasn't beyond the wit of the Russians to put material from banned websites into other places. Trenin's article is also here.
In the second half, I briefly explore a heretical proposal ought we - to a degree, and tongue in cheek - be thanking Putin for his multi-vector political war on the West?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 141: Sex, Drugs and Rock & Roll (kinda)
31 maart 2024 · 56 min
After a sham election and a ghastly terrorist attack (and a pretty ghastly official response), time to talk about something else: sex, drugs and rock & roll. Lees meer
Well, demography, access to pharmaceuticals, and the state's culture war in music, film and beyond - but that's almost the same, isn't it?
The Shaman video I mentioned is here, while if you want to see the trailer for Turist, it's here. For a more wholesome watch, the trailer for Cheburashka is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 140: Terrorism and Totalitarianism
24 maart 2024 · 53 min
What a week it has been. I give my initial thoughts on the awful terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow, and then pivot to some further lessons of the sham presidential elections. It's all joy, all the time, here at In Moscow's Shadows... Lees meer
There are further details of Vienna event at the Kreisky Forum on 8 April here, and on the Newcastle University public lecture on 16 May here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 139: Why Even Sham Elections Can Matter
17 maart 2024 · 55 min
Russia's presidential elections are coming to a close, and while Putin's landslide victory is a foregone conclusion in light of the manipulation of the process (I write about that here), that doesn't mean these elections don't matter. I discuss the things I'll be looking for, ranging from how the votes are allocated, through the potential for a cabinet reshuffle, to how this fits into wider political processes, from the cultivation of a new loyalist elite to the risk of a further mobilisation of soldiers for Ukraine. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 138: Gangster Geopolitics
9 maart 2024 · 54 min
Are we failing properly to consider the danger as the Kremlin turns to Russian-based organised crime groups abroad to make up for the expulsion of so many of its spies abroad and the constraints of the sanctions regime? I think so -- and here I explain why. Lees meer
The ECFR Crimintern report I mention is here, and Rebellion as Racket, for the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 137: They Pretend To Lead Us, We Pretend To Believe
2 maart 2024 · 50 min
An episode, I admit, on the nerdier end of the spectrum, as I dig into Putin's latest State of the Union, both for the detail and also for three big take-aways: that this was a stealth stump speech, that it left unanswered how (or if) the ambitious 6-year plan would be funded, and that it marks a new stage in Putin's Sovietisation. Lees meer
My earlier video on the speech is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 136: Avenging Navalny
25 februari 2024 · 42 min
Avenging may not be quite the right word, but what can the West do to punish the Kremlin for Navalny's death and furthering his cause in ways worthy of him? I set out some practical proposals. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 135: Navalny in the late Soviet Union
18 februari 2024 · 1 uur 1 min
Well, not really, but how Navalny's awful death helps illustrate how late Putinism in its 'banana republic' phase comes to resemble the later Soviet era -- and what this may mean for its future. Lees meer
My video on Navalny is here and Sunday Times article is here. The Moskovsky Komsomolets article I cite is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 134: Kaliningrad still at the Crossroads
11 februari 2024 · 55 min
Is the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad a dangerous Russian bastion threatening the West, a point of vulnerability for Moscow, or a potential point of reconnection with Europe? How about a mix of all three -- and also an example of how even figures from a new 'Putin generation' politician can be technocrats rather than zealots. Lees meer
In the second half, a brief rumination about how simulation exercises like Conducttr's recent Kaliningrad Crucible can help if not prediction, at least analysis.
The Tucker Carlon-Putin interview article in the Sunday Times is here, and my video commentary is here.
Materials on the Kaliningrad Crucible crisis sim are here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 133: Books on Russia, Books on Ukraine
4 februari 2024 · 50 min
As I'm travelling this weekend, this episode is a compilation of two sets of comparative book reviews already provided to my Patrons. Lees meer
First up, three recent books on Russia that, together, would make up one pretty fine, balanced and comprehensive one...
Thomas Graham, Getting Russia Right (Polity)
Richard Sakwa, The Lost Peace (Yale)
Leon Aron, Riding the Tiger (AEI)
In the second half, three more books, this time all about Ukraine:
Maria Popova & Oxana Shevel, Russia and Ukraine. Entangled histories, diverging states (Polity)
Simon Shuster, The Showman (William Collins)
Andrew Harding, A Small, Stubborn Town (Ithaka)
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 132: A View from the Provinces
28 januari 2024 · 49 min
Barring particularly high-profile developments, we tend to look at Russia through the prism of Moscow (and maybe St Petersburg). How good a picture does this give us? To try and redress the balance, I use a recent Association D'Est report on 'Grassroots Propaganda and Repression in Russia's Komi Republic' to consider some of the wider lessons about protest and resistance in the provinces... Lees meer
The D'Est webage is here, and you can learn more about the Bear Market brief here (substack) and here (podcast).
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 131: European Strategy and Vorobyov's Prospects
21 januari 2024 · 1 uur 9 min
A podcast of two halves. First of all, I look at the dilemmas and limitations facing European (EU and UK) strategy over Ukraine. Why is it so hard? Lees meer
After the break, I consider another of the younger officials sometimes listed as an up-and-comer: Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov. Why do I not really rate him?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 130: Questions I Can't Answer
14 januari 2024 · 46 min
The essence of podcasting and punditry may be to peddle confident certainties, but often we don’t really know. So today I raise some important questions to which I really don’t know the answer, but which, alas, matter. When will Russians' patience run out? What will the next 'black swan' disruptor be? Would a ceasefire in 2024 benefit Ukraine more than Russia? Lees meer
The Foreign Affairs article by Emma Ashford and Kelly A. Grieco I cite is here.
The KCL event I mention is here, the programme of the Danish Historical Days is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 129: It's All About Putin's Eggs
7 januari 2024 · 40 min
Russia is still gripped by an egg crisis, after prices rose 46% last year. Now the security apparatus is investigating hoarding and profiteering, the Agriculture Ministry is talking price controls and Lukashenko is having some fun at Putin's expense. At the risk of sounding glib, in this podcast I explain why the crisis explains everything you need to know about Putin's Russia... Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 128: Politics, War and Lunacy - a look forward to 2024
29 december 2023 · 55 min
Less whimsical than the last one, the final episode of 2023 looks ahead to the coming year: the candidates for the presidential elections, the prospects for the war, and - spinning off a deeply-bizarre interview with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov - whether the Kremlin can find a convincing narrative. Lees meer
The Karaganov interview is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 127: When Napoleon was Nuked and Other Russian Conspiracy Theories
23 december 2023 · 56 min
Was Moscow nuked in 1812? Have a thousand years of history been made up to conceal the power of the 'Russian Horde'? Was Lenin a mushroom? Are reptiloids trying to subvert Russia with Satanism? Of course not: but these -- and many, many more -- conspiracy theories and mobilised falsehoods remain deeply and depressingly prevalent in Russia, and even in a way shape policy. Why? Join me in a meandering exploration of the wild and wacky world of Russian conspiracy theory/ Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 126: Truth and Tedium in Putin's Marathon Town Hall and the Russian Press
17 december 2023 · 46 min
I felt I ought to cover Putin's combined press conference and online town hall, but it was just so, so boring. And maybe that's the point: tedium weaponised as the new electoral strategy. But what else can we read into the Kremlin's public messaging? To explore that, after some brief thoughts on that 4 hour 4 minute banquet of banality, I delve into the world of Russian tabloids this weekend... Lees meer
Details of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime event on Monday that I mention (and a link to download the full report) are here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 125: Putin's Coming Back! And So's the Cold War?
10 december 2023 · 50 min
So, surprise, surprise, Putin's standing for re-election. A few thoughts on how it was announced and the vibe around it, before I look at 'Preventing the Next War,' a report from DGAP, the German Council on Foreign Relations, that believes Russia could rearm within 6 years of the end of the war, and that if NATO has not already armed itself to match by then, it would invade. I'm not convinced -- but think it is crucial to have the debate. Lees meer
The DGAP report is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 124: Putin's Performative Politics
3 december 2023 · 54 min
There's a myth that authoritarian leaders don't have to worry about public politics: arguably they have to worry all the more. Spinning off from the recent bizarre criminalisation of the mythical 'international LGBT movement' and one or more raids on gay clubs, I unpack how I think Putin's political 'offer' to Russians will emerge over the months leading up to presidential elections: social conservatism, a warfighting nation rather than a nation at war, a scapegoated country, but also a 'normal country.' Lees meer
The Denis Volkov article I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
Support the show