Alle afleveringen
291 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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In Moscow's Shadows 123: Russia's 'Red-Brown' Leftists, and How I Became A Voice of the West
19 november 2023 · 55 min
Has hell frozen over? Left Front leading light Leonid Razvozzhaev is backing the inclusion of ultra-nationalist Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin in unofficial 'people's primaries' for presidential opposition candidates. How is the Russian left different from the West's, and why does this make 'red-brown' alliances with the nationalists more plausible and worrying? Lees meer
And after the break, how some of my writings have been interpreted of some kind of signal of Western willingness to make a deal over Ukraine, and why it's both dangerous and illuminating that every Russian is a closet Kremlinologist.
The article from Top War I discuss is here, my writings in the Sunday Times (for those of you who subscribe) are collected here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 122: Taking on Conventional Wisdom About Putin
12 november 2023 · 43 min
After looking at a few recent news stories that caught my eye, on everything from the Ministry of Happiness to a surprisingly subversive economic plan, I look at four conventional wisdoms about Putin. He knows what he wants and it never changes. He doesn't have to care about public opinion. He needs the war to go on for ever. He can't be negotiated with. It's not, in my opinion, that they are all outright wrong, but two of them are, and two need more nuance. Without understanding that, we condemn us all to the current status quo so long as Putin is in the Kremlin -- at the very least. Lees meer
The events I mentioned are at De Balie in Amsterdam on 20 November (details here) and Pushkin House in London on 4 December (details here).
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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In Moscow's Shadows 121: Making Sense of Makhachkala
4 november 2023 · 52 min
What can we learn from the ugly anti-Semitic riot at Makhachkala airport? Officially sanctioned, foreign-inspired subversion, a symptom of state failure or societal anti-Semitism? I don't think any of these capture the significance of the incident, but instead it highlights some fundamental challenges for Moscow, and reasons why the North Caucasus is almost uniquely problematic for the regime. Lees meer
The Moscow Times article by Almut Rochowanski that I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 120: Putin is Dead! (well, probably not)
29 oktober 2023 · 44 min
In what sounds more like a scene from Armando Ianucci's Death of Stalin, an anonymous Telegram channel tells us Putin is dead, his body stuffed into deep freeze while Patrushev takes over. Credible? Not really, but that doesn't stop many Western media outlets running with the story. So, why this fascination with Putin's health, why does it matter, and what do I think would happen, if Putin really did die in office? Lees meer
As a natural follow on, in the second part, I look at PM Mikhail Mishustin's chances of being the successor: his best asset may be his very lack of allies...
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 119: Manifestos to the Left of me, Manifestos to the Right
22 oktober 2023 · 59 min
Alexei Navalny has posted a list of 10 questions he thinks all movers and shakers in the Russian (opposition) political scene ought to be asked ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. His questions, and his list of those whom he thinks should answer them, and an interesting bid to remain politically relevant - but also tell us something about his thinking. Lees meer
On the other end of the political spectrum, uber-hawk Nikolai Patrushev has written an article (available in Russia and a PDF here) which is the best encapsulation yet of his conspiratorial worldview and his idea of how Moscow can assemble a "The Rest vs the West" political coalition. He's wrong.
Two very different men, with very different worldviews. But are there also some telling similarities in their manifestos?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 118: Clueless in Gaza - Russia and the current Middle East crisis
14 oktober 2023 · 42 min
A quick and early episode looking at what roles and goals - if any - Russia has in the current Hamas-Israel war. The bottom line is that Russia was not behind the terrorist invasion, doesn't really know how to respond, is putting out different and even contradictory messages and yet will taken whatever advantage from it that it can. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 117: Security Politics and the President Who Can't Change His Spots
8 oktober 2023 · 46 min
The Russian police are increasingly under pressure. The National Guard is getting into the mercenary game. There is talk (probably empty) of Wagner being reconstituted under Evgeny Prigozhin's son Pavel. These three apparently separate developments all point to the way Putin is not learning the lessons of past mistakes. Lees meer
In the second segment, another profile of a potential successor to Putin: the fixer-technocrat with the 'Cheshire Cat' smile, Dmitri Kozak.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 116: Putin's "Forever War" (which isn't)
1 oktober 2023 · 51 min
The easy cliche that the Ukraine conflict may become a 'forever war' is a convenient notion for Putin - it may help dismay his enemies, and provides an organising principle for 'late Putinism.' To paraphrase the SF game Warhammer 40,000, in the grim darkness of the present, there is only war. Lees meer
Yet, of course, no war last forever and, in particular, Russians themselves don't seem to be buying this notion. Even government pollsters suggest only a small minority are really enthused by the war - and not even they embrace the idea of war eternal for it's own sake.
I also indulge myself with the first segment in an occasional series of 'Why Everything Bad is Britain's Fault' (at least as far the Kremlin is concerned).
The Fedorov interview I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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In Moscow's Shadows 115: Kadyrov and the Conflict Entrepreneurs
24 september 2023 · 1 uur 2 min
Is Kadyrov dying? If so, who might replace him - and what may this mean for Russia. If Chechnya again becomes unstable, will Putin be faced with a choice of losing in Ukraine or in Chechnya? Lees meer
In any case, Kadyrov was one of the first and most successful of Russia's 'conflict entrepreneurs,' able to monetise the threat or actuality of war. The invasion of Ukraine is creating a whole slew of new conflict entrepreneurs, who will represent not just a constituency with an interest in continued conflict, but also may be being nurtured as the state looks to find a new support base.
The BBC report I mention is here, and the podcast on the Rosgvardiya and its business empire is episode 11, here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 114: Six of the Best (?)
10 september 2023 · 53 min
As a way of getting away from the perennial talk of Wagner and the Ukrainian counter-offensive, I look at current stories relating to six individuals - Dmitri Medvedev, Anton Siluanov, Sergei Surovikin, Sergei Sobyanin, Valentin Konovalov and Sergei Aksenov - and what they tell us about today's Russia, Nepotism, statism, warlordism, and the limits of Kremlin power... Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 113: And Goodnight Wagner?
3 september 2023 · 52 min
After looking at Prigozhin last time, this episode I focus on Wagner. Will it survive in Africa (I suspect not), what this may mean for Russia's Africa non-quite-a-strategy, and will we see a 'Wagnerisation' of the Russian military (probably) and society (hopefully not). And why Wagner was like one of the great global football teams... Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 112: Goodbye Prigozhin
27 augustus 2023 · 46 min
What can we say about the death of Prigozhin (beyond good riddance?). At the risk of overstating the case, I feel this is a watershed moment, and Putin's willingness to turn on his own, at the expense of his own promises, is both symptomatic of deep decay in the system and also something that will further undermine it. Lees meer
The Sunday Times article I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 111: A Nervous Kremlin and a Neglected Police Force
20 augustus 2023 · 58 min
Marking the anniversary of the second day of the 1991 August Coup, the day when momentum began to shift away from the hardliners behind the seizure of power, a look at how the Putin regime - the spiritual descendant of those same plotters - is getting jumpy, cracking down on critics left and right and unable to win the loyalty of society. Lees meer
An aspect of this, which I explore in the second part, is how a Russian policeman's lot is not a happy one, and not only is Russia not the massively-heavily policed society that is often claimed, but that the expansion of the public order forces at the expense of the regular police is something that may come back to bite the Kremlin.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 110: Why Navalny Doesn't Hate The Goat
12 augustus 2023 · 55 min
He may have just been sentenced to another 19 years, now in a 'special regime colony', but the indomitable Alexei Navalny has just produced a broadside against the 'reformists' of the 1990s - whom he considers nothing of the sort, but instead the architects of kleptocracy and authoritarianism. And it's hard to disagree with that. I go through what is in effect his manifesto, with lots of quotes and also lots of my own marginalia, and conclude by questioning whether Navalny's very purity of purpose may be a problem - and the lessons for the West. Lees meer
The translation of his article in Meduza is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 109: A Tale of Two Last Wars, Afghanistan and Ukraine
26 juli 2023 · 54 min
Can one draw meaningful parallels between the Soviets' 1979-88 war in Afghanistan, and the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine? The wars may have been very different, but I would suggest there are ways in which the Afghanistan experience helps inform our understanding of the Ukraine war - and above all, how this will affect Russia politically, socially and economically in the future. The good news is that this is one reason why, just as Afghanistan was the Soviet Union's last war, Ukraine should be Putin's. Lees meer
If anyone is interested, the 'book of the PhD' is Afghanistan: the Soviet Union's last war (Routledge, 1995), while the later book I mentioned digging into the initial seizure of Kabul is Storm-333 (Osprey, 2021).
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 108: Where Have All The Generals Gone?
16 juli 2023 · 41 min
Is there a post-mutiny purge of the military going on? What can we learn from the apparent dismissal or detention of figures such as Generals Surovikin and Popov? And what does this mean about the prospects of the war and whether there will be the military coup some seem to be anticipating? Lees meer
The Dara Massicot (@MassDara) twitter thread I mention starts here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 107: Where Are We Now On Prigozhin's Mutiny?
9 juli 2023 · 57 min
There still seems no escaping the fallout from Prigozhin's mutiny, whether we're talking about the fate of Wagner in Africa or those bizarre wig selfies. I take a series of questions from Oligarch/Hetman patrons as a structure to look at what we do - and don't - know at present. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 106: The Spooky Side of Prigozhin's Mutiny
2 juli 2023 · 38 min
A shorter episode, because there is still so much about the causes, course and consequences of Prigozhin's mutiny that we still don't know. Instead, I focus in on the spook side: what were the FSB, FSO and GRU doing? To a large degree, the answer is> failing. Will they be taken to account? I doubt it, and this underlines the way that 'late Putinism' is characterised by its refusal or inability to reform. Lees meer
The previous episode I mentioned looking at Russia's complex mercenary ecosystem is In Moscow's Shadows 98: Dogs of War (and Racoons).
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 105: Prigozhin's Mutiny
25 juni 2023 · 51 min
Prigozhin's mutiny... or, 36 hours of what-the-hell? It's too close for a really judicious take on this weekend's hijinks, but first thoughts on why Prigozhin did it, what happened, and what this all actually means. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 104: Paranormal Putinism
20 juni 2023 · 47 min
After the usual quick run-through of war-related news, I consider the rise of mysticism and occultism not just in Putin's circle, but Russia as a whole. Tales of rituals in the Kremlin; the Communist 'battle mage;' predictions of triumph in Ukraine. What is the reason? My view is that it is a response to anomie and despair - but also incubates hope for change, and illustrates a desire for that change. So, however bizarre, it may be grounds for optimism. Lees meer
The Carnegie article by Ksenia Luchenko I mentioned is here; the FT piece on PMCs here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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In Moscow's Shadows 103: The Rise of the Princeling Patrushev, the Grey Cardigan
11 juni 2023 · 36 min
After the inevitable quick look at the Ukrainian counter-offensive (too little to say really about the operation on the ground, but some points to make about the political context), I drill down into the life of Dmitry Patrushev - minister for agriculture and, arguably rather more important, son of Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev. Could he be a candidate to succeed Putin, and if so, what would this mean? Lees meer
If Patrushev senior is regarded as one of the grey cardinals, Jr is more of a grey cardigan – undistinguished, unfashionable, yet cosy and comforting for the old men around Putin.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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In Moscow's Shadows 102: The Wolf that Only Howls: the Chechens in Ukraine
4 juni 2023 · 38 min
A spat between Wagner's Prigozhin and Chechnya's Kadyrov provides a good opportunity to look at the role of the Chechens in the Ukraine War - or, rather, just how small a role they are playing. Why is that? Because the war is a microcosm of the Putin system in so many ways, and in that system Kadyrov has managed to create a comfortable place in which he loudly performs loyalty while actually exploiting Moscow as far as he can. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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In Moscow's Shadows 101: Phoney Wars and Rising Stars
28 mei 2023 · 50 min
Bakhmut has (probably, kinda) fallen and Belgorod raided. The first is hardly a real defeat for Ukraine nor a real victory for Moscow. The latter may prove more significant, not so much for the raid itself but the dilemmas it imposes on the Russians ahead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Lees meer
In the second half I kick off an occasional series of profiles of the next generation of insider political leaders by looking at Marat Khusnullin, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Construction and Regional Development, whose status as a (re)builder could conceivably what Russia will eventually need after Putin.
Anna Arutunyan's Spectator piece I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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In Moscow's Shadows 100: All the News That's Fit to Print (in Rossiiskaya Gazeta)
14 mei 2023 · 34 min
As a change from the usual, I look through the top six news items currently on the website of Rossiiskaya Gazeta, the main government newspaper of record, on today, Sunday 14 May. What can one learn about the state of Russian politics, intra-elite conflicts, the survival of real journalism and how comfortable Russians are with being global outsiders, based on stories about everything from missile attacks in the Donbas to easier regulations on building sheds? Lees meer
As websites change, the six stories are:
FT: G7 и ЕС планируют запретить возобновление поставок российского газа
"Фиксируем все разрушения для будущего суда над преступниками": как работает полиция на месте удара крылатыми ракетами Storm Shadow в День ЛНР
В Турции начались президентские и парламентские выборы
Эрмитаж возвращает в Александро-Невскую Лавру раку Александра Невского. Михаил Пиотровский рассказал "РГ" о смысле и условиях передачи раки Церкви
ЭксклюзивВ Минстрое разъяснили, почему сараи и бани стало строить проще
Александр Бастрыкин выступил за введение уголовной ответственности для юридических лиц
The episode of the Kennan Institute's The Russia File podcast I mention is here. For Bastrykin's rather more explicit attacks on corruption in the defence-industrial complex, see here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 99: All Hail the Tsar? Why Putinism has suffered from becoming monarchical
7 mei 2023 · 46 min
It's an easy journalistic shorthand to hall Putin a new tsar (I've done it myself), but what might it mean? Coronation weekend in the UK seems a fitting time to consider the pitfalls for Putinism of its pseudo-monarchic tilt. Lees meer
In the second part a quickfire look at Ukraine's war of sabotage inside Russia, the incredible shrinking Victory Day parade, and the even more quickly shrinking Prigozhin.
My articles on the drone attack and sabotage campaign are in the Spectator and Sunday Times; the Meduza piece on Mediazona's research about proxy attacks is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 98: Dogs of War (and Racoons)
29 april 2023 · 54 min
News that gas corporation Gazprom appears to be sponsoring a mercenary unit in Ukraine prompts me to explore the complex ecosystem of Russian private military companies and mercenaries. Not so much the onset of a new era of warlordism, I see it as a reflection of Putin's adhocratic mobilisation state. In the second half, I provide a guide to some of the varies organisations in question, from MOD fronts to ultra-nationalist thugs. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 97: Where Are They Now?
22 april 2023 · 48 min
Even loyalists seem in some cases to be taking a step back, not for a moment standing against the Kremlin but less able or willing to be so vocal and visible supporting it. I look at four such figures - Alexander Bortnikov, director of the FSB, Dmitry Kiselev, general director of Russia Today, Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigatory Committee, and Alexei Dyumin, governor of Tula - and wonder what their different political strategies portend. Lees meer
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 96: Of Leaks and Lengths
16 april 2023 · 49 min
What can we learn from the massive trove of US secret documents recently and incautiously leaked? And what are the signs that Russia really is digging in, not for a 'Forever War,' but certainly a lengthy one? Lees meer
The Moskovskii Komsomolets article I mention is here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 95: Tatarsky, Gershkovich, Patrushev and Guns
4 april 2023 · 57 min
Something for everyone? What we may conclude from the murder of milblogger 'Vladlen Tatarsky', thoughts on the hostage-taking of journalist Evan Gershkovich, the madness of Nikolai Patrushev and a new report on guns in Ukraine. Lees meer
The Spectator piece I mention is here (paywalled), Patrushev's latest interview is here, the report 'On U.S. Objectives With Respect to the USSR To Counter Soviet Threats to U.S. Security' is here, and our report 'Peace and Proliferation: the Russo-Ukrainian war and the illegal arms trade' is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 94: What do you do with a problem like Medvedev?
26 maart 2023 · 46 min
Spinning off from a recent piece for the Spectator, I look at Dmitri Medvedev's decline and fall, from technocratic liberal hope to peddler of toxic anti-Western vitriol, and what this tells us about late Putinism: the hawkish turn, chameleonic politics, the need for scarecrows and the downside of Putin's loyalty. Lees meer
The Spectator piece is here
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In Moscow's Shadows 93: Oligarchs and Judges
19 maart 2023 · 44 min
Isn't it time to scrap the term 'oligarch'? In Russia - as perhaps, not in Ukraine - the time when rich people able to assert power because of their wealth (as opposed to getting wealthy because of their power) seems long gone. Lees meer
And a justice vs pragmatism question: will the International Criminal Court's decision to issue an arrest warrant against Putin on war crimes charges, help the cause of peace? Sadly, although I don't think there is any doubt he is a war criminal, I fear not.
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In Moscow's Shadows 92: Everyone's Got an Agenda: Hungary, China, Neo-Nazis, Kadyrov, Anime Fans...
5 maart 2023 · 56 min
Why did Budapest 2023 remind me of Moscow 2007? Are Hungary or China 'pro-Russia'? What can we read into pro-Ukrainian neo-Nazi incursions into Russia and Kadyrov's claims that he wants to set up a mercenary company? And speaking of which, what on earth is PMC Ryodan? Lees meer
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In Moscow's Shadows 91: Russian Fantasies - Putin's address to the nation and the lessons from Russian science fiction
11 februari 2023 · 53 min
Putin has finally set a date for his annual address to the Federal Assembly, 21 February. He will likely try to tread the balance between scaring and reassuring his audience, but it takes place at a time when there is evidence of the security state digging in for the long haul, not least with a reshuffle at the Security Council Secretariat. Lees meer
In the second half, I talk about Russian scifi, especially of the imperialist variety, and what we can learn from it.
For those interested, I write about the Security Council here. Mikhail Suslov's article 'Of Planets and Trenches: Imperial Science Fiction in Contemporary Russia' is here,
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In Moscow's Shadows 90: A Murder in Donbas Evokes the 90s and Putin Cosplays the 40s
5 februari 2023 · 51 min
The apparent hit on a Russian rightist, propagandist, and self-styled "swindler and mercenary" raises a range of questions about coordination in the Russian forces, the role of Evgeny Prigozhin and Russia's slide back towards the 'wild 90s.' Still, that's a better prospect than Putin's repeated invocation of the 1940s, most recently at the 80th anniversary of the battle of Stalingrad... Lees meer
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In Moscow's Shadows 89: Tanks, the New Patriotic War and the Strelkov-Prigozhin Spat
29 januari 2023 · 57 min
What does it mean that Western-designed tanks will now be supplied to Ukraine, and what - if any - potential responses does Putin have? At the very least, it will be used to hammer home the new notion of the 'New Patriotic War,' in an attempt to provide a rationalisation for totalitarianism. However, any unity imposed is just superficial - as the recent spat between Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin and Evgeny Prigozhin illustrates, there are growing divisions within the system. Lees meer
The Tsargrad article on Dugin I mentioned is here, the Izvestia one on Petr Pavel is here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 88: Enter Gerasimov
12 januari 2023 · 47 min
So what might it mean for Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov to be made the new overall commander of Russian operations in Ukraine? I suspect Putin is impatient for some kind of victory - and if Gerasimov absolutely has to provide it, then he will need to find some form of escalation. Lees meer
Details of the Chelsea Society event on 16 January I mentioned are here, and the Lewes Speakers Festival event on the 22nd (lots of other interesting authors, by the way) is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 87: War, Politics and Putin's New Year's Address
1 januari 2023 · 55 min
A collection of topics: Putin's rather bellicose New Year Address and what to make of it, the limits of Russian politics, what to make of Medvedev's and Prigozhin's bizarre statements, and some good news, especially for those who consider Peruvian shaman to be soothsayers... Lees meer
The Russian cyber report I mentioned is here, Prigozhin's latest broadside is here, and news of the Peruvian shaman (in Russian) is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 86: Russian Rumours and Cognitive Biases
10 december 2022 · 36 min
Is Putin contemplating fleeing to Venezuela? Is Medvedev more powerful than Patrushev? Does it make sense to decolonise Russia? Is a maverick spook spilling the beans on Putin's personal life? As a lack of hard information on inner Kremlin politics generates rumours and assumptions to fill the data vacuum, I ponder our analytic biases. Lees meer
The survey of 100 top politicians is here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 85: War and Peace (and how both are changing)
4 december 2022 · 55 min
What broader lessons about the changing nature of war, peace and power can we draw from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict? A more conceptual and rambling episode than usual... Lees meer
The Meduza article on FSO polling I mentioned is here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 84: Putin the History (Abuse) Man
20 november 2022 · 1 uur
My own contribution to the current discussion about how Putin tries to use and abuse history, and how he doesn't even get Russian history right. Lees meer
And, after the break, the costs of the war to Russia and the all-too-often overlooked (not least by Putin) regional dimension.
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In Moscow's Shadows 83: Putin's decision-making; and Russian organised crime after the invasion
13 november 2022 · 54 min
A fresh batch of Patrons' questions, clustered around Putin, his influences (no, Ivan Ilyin is not his guru) and decision-making; and then in the second half, how are the effects of invasion and sanctions reshaping Russian organised crime? Lees meer
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In Moscow's Shadows 82: What Prigozhin Wants, What Putin Believes, and Why Russia Might Create its own Bureau 39
6 november 2022 · 53 min
In the first part of the podcast, I address the first batch of questions put to me by my Patrons, including Prigozhin's authority and whether Putin really believes some of the increasingly bizarre nonsense that is being spouted by his officials. In the second part, I explore whether Russia might be tempted to follow North Korea in establishing a 'ministry of organised crime.' Lees meer
Oh, and do buy my new book Putin's Wars!
The ECFR Crimintern report I mention (from 2017) is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 81: A Sampling of the Latest News; and the Russo-Chinese Intelligence Relationship
30 oktober 2022 · 40 min
In the first segment, I touch on some of the latest news stories: Ukraine's drone attack on Sevastopol and the ending of the grain deal; will Russian withdraw from Kherson; and what Russians think. In the second half, I pivot to exploring the complex intelligence relationship between Russia and China and why, whatever the talk of a 'friendship without limits,' at least in the secret realm they are not frenemies maybe but frivals... Lees meer
The recording of the talk at George Washington's Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies I mentioned is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 80: Annexations, Mobilisations, Martial Law and More
22 oktober 2022 · 1 uur
I'm back after a month of travels, and what a month it's been. In this longer-than-usual catch-up episode, I look at its main developments, including annexations, mobilisation, martial law and political machinations. And how Sergei Kirienko admitted that this was not a popular war... Lees meer
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In Moscow's Shadows 79: Putin's Dilemmas, on and off the battlefield
16 september 2022 · 44 min
Military analysts often talk about the way forces seek to 'impose dilemmas' in their enemy on the battlefield. The extraordinary Ukrainian advance from Kharkiv is imposing a series of dilemmas both military and, more importantly, political on Putin. And, faced with a choice of difficult options, none of which look especially palatable, he is doing what he usually does: dodge the hard decisions, dig in and hope things work out. Lees meer
From tactical nukes and mobilisation to why bother with increasingly transparently rigged elections, a run through the dilemmas and possible responses.
Also, do note that my podcasting in the next month may be pretty limited, but patrons will get regular text updates.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 78: Organised Labour in a Neoliberal and Authoritarian Russia
5 september 2022 · 36 min
It's Labo(u)r Day here in DC, so I look at the - pretty poor - state of organised labour in Russia, but also the hints that coming economic pressures could help encourage some solidarity and lateral connections, key to effective civil society. Lees meer
My post 'Mikroraion Life' in my Travels in Deepest Muscovy blog on life in Kotel'niki is here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 77: Gorbachev's Hope vs Putin's Victimhood, a short rumination
1 september 2022 · 17 min
A short, one-segment piece in which I consider one of the less widely-discussed aspects of Gorbachev's legacy (and quite why he sat so uncomfortably for the present regime): that he stood for hope (however naive or badly-executed sometimes) rather than the victimhood at the heart of Putin's message. Lees meer
My snap appreciation of Gorbachev is here, and Leon Aron's obit is here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 76: The Impotence of Power and Giving Liz Truss some options for Narrative Warfare
28 augustus 2022 · 58 min
How far is the Kremlin grappling with the problem of power and relevance: it has made promises, it issues decree, but is it really able to achieve any more at home than in the stalemate in Ukraine? Does Putin's recent decree on expanding the military mean more than just more Potemkin politics? And as a result, are more and more elements of Russian society seeing the regime as incapable, creating a dangerous potential threat? Lees meer
In the second half, Liz Truss, the UK's likely next prime minister, has vowed that 'Britain will expose Putin’s lies to the world' - I suggest some ways in which London can sharpen and expand its narrative warfare game.
Truss's article in the Telegraph is here; my piece in the Sunday Times is here (there may be paywalls for both), and Francis Scarr of BBC Monitoring's twitter handle is @Francis_Scarr.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 75: Shoigu and Power under Putinism-Patrushevism
15 augustus 2022 · 54 min
Continuing from last episode, in which I postulate that Russia is now in the grip of 'Putinism-Patrushevism,' I look at what this has meant for Defence Minister Shoigu - and how his return to high-profile public politics suggest he has been forced to adapt to the new era of constant conflict. How can this help illuminate what the ingredients of power in late Putinism may be? Lees meer
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In Moscow's Shadows 74: Putinism-Patrushevism
31 juli 2022 · 50 min
I play around with the concept of Putinism-Patrushevism, that while Putin's broad ambitions may be pretty consistent over time, quite how they are understood and meant to be achieved varies over time depending on who has most influence with him - and now, sadly, it's Nikolai Patrushev, leading to the current state of the country. (I float this idea in this Sunday Times piece). Lees meer
The earlier podcast in which I label Patrushev 'the most dangerous man in Russia' is here, by the way.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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