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291 afleveringen, van nieuw naar oud
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In Moscow's Shadows 73: From Liberal Politics to Boris Johnson's Departure, answers to more listener questions
17 juli 2022 · 59 min
The final batch of patrons' and listeners' questions answered - sometimes better than others - on everything from Ekaterina Schulmann's "reverse cargo cult" thesis to the flaws of liberal politics, Naryshkin's fumbles to naval dilemmas in the Ukraine war. Lees meer
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 72: A Tale of Two Colonels, Strelkov and Putin
10 juli 2022 · 55 min
I look at the career of Igor Girkin, better known as Strelkov, the ultra-nationalist who has turned against Putin - but gets away with it. What does it tell us about Russian politics? Lees meer
In the second half, I read the coda added to later editions of my book 'We Need To Talk About Putin' to reflect the invasion of Ukraine and expand on a few points in it.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 71: Russia, Ukraine and beyond - another miscellany
2 juli 2022 · 59 min
After tackling three of recent developments worth noting - the evolving military command structure of the war, Sergei Kirienko's role and the emergence of the war economy - I tackle a dozen listeners' questions, from how the conflict is affecting Putin's thoughts about his future, to whether monarchy could return... Lees meer
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 70: A Miscellany - Being Banned, Putin and Lavrov Speak Out, Divisions in the Elite and Listeners' Questions
18 juni 2022 · 47 min
Something of a magazine episode. In the first half I talk about my being banned from Russia (here's the Foreign Ministry announcement), Putin at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Lavrov interviewed by the BBC (see more here) and Pertsev's recent article about the elite in Meduza (here). Lees meer
In the second half, I tackle a range of questions from listeners, broadly about geopolitics.
A reminder, if you have a question you want me to address, send it to me by Monday 20 June, either through the Patreon site if you are a patron, otherwise via the contact form on my blog, here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 69: A Bargain-Basement Empire in the Offing, and Who Is Sergei Kirienko?
13 juni 2022 · 51 min
In the first part of this slightly rambling episode, I develop on a theme I covered for the Sunday Times (here) on whether Moscow will move beyond annexing the Donbas and Lugansk People's Republics and actually seek to grab more territories. And why on earth might anything think this a good idea? Lees meer
One such might be Sergei Kirienko, the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration, who ought to know better but may have his reasons, So in the second half I look at this product of the 1990s.
A reminder, if you have a question you want me to address, send it to me by Monday 20 June, either through the Patreon site if you are a patron, otherwise via the contact form on my blog, here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 68: No, Russia isn't winning in Ukraine, and no, there's no coup imminent...
29 mei 2022 · 46 min
Good news and bad news? Anyway, in the first part I explore what's happening in the Donbas, why it is far too soon to talk of Russia 'winning' and the signs it is digging in for the long haul, and looking for things to call victories. Lees meer
In the second part, I return to the vexed question of a coup against Putin, and why it is so unlikely - unless and until there is a serious crisis that poses a real threat to elite interests and forces them to make a choice. (And why it matters who has been appointed Minister for Emergency Situations).
The Meduza article I mention is here. I talk a little more about why I don't think we can assume things are going Putin's way in Ukraine in the Telegraph, here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 67: Why September is the Month to Watch, and 'Putin, Ukraine and the Revenge of History'
18 mei 2022 · 47 min
When are Russians really going to start feeling the pressure of the shooting war in Ukraine and the economic/political one with the West? I explain why I think September is when they will really start to feel it. Lees meer
In the second part, I read the coda written for the paperback edition of my Short History of Russia (out now, and a bargain!)
And apologies for some sound issues with background noise, that I could not edit out...
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 66: Silovik, Nuclear, Criminal and Religious - a Choice of Victories
1 mei 2022 · 54 min
A week before Victory Day, I consider some different constituencies' notions of victories. For Patrushev and the hard-liners, they could win politically not despite failing in the war, but thanks to it. Nuclear rhetoric may be scary, but it is also a reflection not of victory but failure. The war and sanctions are reshaping the opportunities in the Russian underworld, and this create new winners and losers. And what does Patriarch Kirill hope to win? Lees meer
The Moscow Times piece I mentioned is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 65: Fabian Burkhardt on Russia's Elites, Coups and Rumours
22 april 2022 · 1 uur 5 min
For an experimental change in format, this episode is given over to a long conversation with Fabian Burkhardt of IOS-Regensburg, who works on Russian elites, institutions and authoritarian politics. He gives his sense on the state and loyalties of the elites, on the chances of any kind of palace coups, and the degree to which we are all flailing around in the fog of (info)war. Lees meer
As for relevant publications of Fabian's on the topic of the podcast: "Institutionalising Authoritarian Presidencies: Polymorphous Power and Russia’s Presidential Administration" , "Foolproofing Putinism", "The Fog of War and Power Dynamics in Russia’s Elite: Defections and Purges, or Simply Wishful Thinking?"
Useful sources for listeners some of which Fabian used in his prep or mentioned in podcast:
Adam Casey, "Putin Has Coup-Proofed His Regime"
Timothy Frye "Why Regime Change in Russia Might Not Be a Good Idea"
Vladimir Milov "Ugroza perevorota v Rossii. Okruzhenie Putina sposobno na zagovor? FSB, Sovbez, FSO, Genshtab i drugie." [The threat of a coup in Russia. Is Putin's entourage capable to stage a conspiracy? FSB, Security Council, FSO, General Staff and others]
Mark Galeotti "Putin is devouring his children", "Putin’s totalitarian turn"
Stanislav Markus "Meet Russia’s oligarchs, a group of men who won't be toppling Putin anytime soon"
Farida Rustamova "They’re carefully enunciating the word clusterf*ck", "'Now we're going to f*ck them all.' What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war"
Andrey Pertsev "Blindsided Russia’s top officials were caught off guard by Putin’s war in Ukraine. Many of them want to resign — but can’t.", "Filling the void Putin’s administration no longer hopes to take Kyiv. The Russian president has yet to make a final decision."
Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan "Could the Siloviki Challenge Putin?"
Dossier Center "Beseda na doprose. Deistvitelno li arestovan glava 5-i sluzhby FSB" [Interrogation of Beseda. Was the head of the FSB's Fifth S…
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In Moscow's Shadows 64: Dvornikov, Mishustin, Scenarios and Traitors - more about Ukraine
16 april 2022 · 52 min
Who is General Dvornikov, the new Russian operational commander for the war in Ukraine? Will Prime Minister Mishustin and the other technocrats be able to prevent the militarisation of the Russian economy? Four scenarios for the war. And why it's all about 'enemies' versus 'traitors' for Putin now... Lees meer
The piece on Rusich I mentioned is here, and the Telegraph piece is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 63: Terrible Crimes, Terrible Rulers, Terrible Dilemmas
3 april 2022 · 28 min
Another brief and unedited podcast trying to track some of the latest Ukraine-related Russian stories, all distinctly depressing: Lees meer
- the war crimes of Bucha (and the Kirill Shamiev twitter thread I mentioned is here)
- comparing Ivan the Terrible and Vladimir (Putin) the Pretty Terrible Too
- the dilemmas for ordinary Russians - and why today's support may not be tomorrow's (the Farida Rustamova piece I mention is here)
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 62: Ukraine: A New Strategy, An Absent Shoigu, An Angry National Guard and a Medieval Lithuanian Comparison
26 maart 2022 · 29 min
A brief and thoroughly unedited look at four particular issues relating to Ukraine:
- the 'new strategy' of concentrating on the Donbas
- where's Shoigu?
- fear and loathing in the National Guard
- a comparison with medieval Lithuania (yes, really) Lees meerYou can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 61: Ukraine: When Autocracy meets Technocracy - Putin's War, Info War, Spook War
12 maart 2022 · 47 min
Rather than try and follow the day-by-day, I tackle one of the tricky conundra: not just why the Russians have done so badly, but why the Ukraine war hasn't been fought the way the Russian army is meant to fight. My suspicion is that it is what happens when autocracy meets technocracy, and I explain what I mean. Lees meer
In the second part, I look at the current claims that Colonel General Beseda of the FSB is under arrest and the hints of opening divisions in the security apparatus, as well as the wider question of how we try and make sense of it all in the midst of active information warfare being waged on every side.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 60: Ukraine: Nuclear Options, National Morale, and How Kyiv Can Save Moscow
27 februari 2022 · 31 min
What can one say about the unfolding horror in Ukraine. In this podcast I alight on a few specific issues: Putin's nuclear signalling (at least I hope that's all it is), the idiocy of 'No Fly Zones' in this context, Russian morale, and how, if Putin is re-booting the Brezhnev franchise, this could in the long-term let Russia finally complete its reform process. Lees meer
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 59: Imagining a Ukrainian peace deal
20 februari 2022 · 32 min
It may well be, as US/UK leaders are saying, that it is too late, that Putin is determined to wage war on Ukraine, but even as we assiduously wargame the potential routes of advance and attack, we should continue to try and peacegame, too, to apply the same imagination to framing any potential settlement. It would be exquisitely difficult and complex, but right up until the tanks cross the border, we ought to try. Today, I try and sketch out some thoughts as to what such a deal - one that does not sell Kyiv down the river - might involve. Lees meer
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 58: Ukrainian thoughts, welcome to stagnation, and more 2022 predictions
14 februari 2022 · 33 min
With Schrodinger's War both imminent and unthinkable there is, to be blunt, only so much that can usefully be said about Russia and Ukraine. I start with a few observations on whether insiders are trying to warn Putin off escalation and what it means if Russia does launch a full-scale invasion (in short, welcome the Brezhnevian stagnation and the rule of the hawks), before turning to some listener questions. Specifically, why Russia is so good at hacking the international system, whether it will stay in Syria through 2022 (yes) and whether Bortnikov will retire (also yes). Lees meer
I talk about putative FSB director-elect Korolev in a piece for Raam op Rusland here, and talked about the debate over recognising the Donbas pseudo-states in this IMS episode.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 57: Who's Trapping Whom on Ukraine, and some 2022 Predictions for Russia
30 januari 2022 · 52 min
I spin a post on the Nezygar Telegram channel out to explore the current uncertain state of play over Ukraine, covering topics from the current US claims of what its intelligence says about both Zelenskyy and Putin to whether recognising the Donbas pseudo-states is being floated in Moscow precisely as an escape route. In the second segment, I tackle some of the requests for predictions sent in by Patrons and offer what turn out to be some disappointingly unexciting responses. Lees meer
The article on Minsk II for the Council on Geostrategy is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas 2021-22 (6): A Christmas Scandal
28 januari 2022 · 11 min
One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later. Lees meer
A Christmas tale of villainy and corruption.
There are all kinds of rumours about embezzlement and theft at a state bank, but the directors swear blind that all is fine.
The chief teller is clearly rich beyond his means, and his wife is never seen but that she is dripping with diamonds, but no one sees fit to enquire further.
Eventually, when it turns out that the bank has been plundered into near-bankruptcy, there’s an enquiry, but the chief director of the bank – who incidentally is a close crony of the ruler – is put in charge of the investigating commission.
And this is despite the eye-witness account of his removing bullion from the bank’s vaults as the scandal breaks.
Lo and behold, all the blame is placed on the teller and sundry other small fry, while the directors go scot free.
Sounds like just another tale of modern Russia?
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials (including retrospectively the archive of past bonus posts) right here.
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Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas: 24 December 2021: Dmitry Mironov
24 januari 2022 · 13 min
One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later. Lees meer
Who is Lt. Gen. Dmitry Mironov? It may prove worth knowing about this bodyguard-turned-governor-turned-presidential-aide, in effect Putin's eyes and ears over the security forces, and now you can spend just 13 minutes and feel that you do! How being a bodyguard and an ice hockey player can be one of the best routes to success in Putin's Russia.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials (including retrospectively the archive of past bonus posts) right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 56: Jaw-Jaw so Far, not War-War (brief thoughts on the state of play)
22 januari 2022 · 23 min
After the Blinken-Lavrov talks, a brief one-segment podcast with a few thoughts on the current state of the dialogue, the risks of conflict, and the chances that Moscow will formally recognise the Donbas and Lugansk 'Peoples' Republics.' Lees meer
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas 2021-22 (7): Russia’s Planet Business in 2022
12 januari 2022 · 15 min
One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released later: usually a month, in this case a fortnight, as I think it's worth hearing early in the year! Lees meer
I freely admit business is not my area of expertise, so who better to give a quick assessment of what may await in 2022 than Ben Aris, Editor-in-Chief of bne Intellinews (https://www.intellinews.com/) and one of the more grounded commentators on ‘Planet Business.’
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials (including retrospectively the archive of past bonus posts) right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 55: Kazakhstan, through the Russian lens
9 januari 2022 · 39 min
A Russian-led force deploying into Kazakhstan has inevitably had some people talking invasion, some stabilisation. I make no claims to being a Kazakhstan expert and look forward to people who are having the opportunity to work out if this was a coup by President Tokaev against his patron and master Nazarbaev or something else. So instead, I look at the crisis through the Russian lens: why did the CSTO agree to send forces, what are Moscow's interests, and what can we learn from the Russian media messaging? Lees meer
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 54: Naughty or Nice? What 2022 May Hold For Russia's Rulers
1 januari 2022 · 32 min
To kick off the year, rather than making some grand predictions about Russia, instead I speculate as to what 2022 may offer Putin, Patrushev, Mishustin, Shoigu, Kirienko and Kadyrov. So much will depend on one key decision, whether the system will legitimate itself 'socially' or as a 'fortress.' Lees meer
The twitter thread on the VTsIOM poll I mentioned is here, and the Riddle 'Key Event of 2021' compilation is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 53: Trick or Treaties - Russia's proposals to 'resolve' the current crisis
19 december 2021 · 21 min
A short, one-segment piece on Russia's proposed new treaties and how, despite what their deputy foreign minister may say, we have to treat them as the basis for some kind of negotiation, and see what comes of it. So long, that is, that we also step up our deterrence, to ensure Moscow has good reason to talk. Lees meer
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 52: Nightmares before Christmas? Ukraine and the Russian underworld
12 december 2021 · 40 min
Quite what is Russia's game plan over Ukraine? It seems hard to explain through common sense, so I conduct a thought experiment: what would Putin have to be thinking to believe that a war, with all the consequent and catastrophic political and economic costs, might make sense? Lees meer
In the second part, I look at some developments in the Russian underworld that suggest that a long nightmare - the prospect of nation-wide mafia wars - might well actually be on the wane.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 51: Ukraine, Prisons, Legitimacy and Lombards...
28 november 2021 · 39 min
Something of a miscellany. First of all, latest thoughts - that turn out to be disappointingly inconclusive - about what's going on with Ukraine. Lees meer
Then reflections on the appointment of a career cop as the new head of FSIN, the Federal Penitentiary Service, and the prospects for pragmatic reform. (The 2011 blog I mentioned is here.)
Then short and sour comments about the vacuous and dangerous virtue signalling that is the proposed Congressional resolution not to recognise Putin as president “if the autocrat remains in power” after 2024.
And finally, in response to a question from a Patron, observations about how Russians are getting by, and the increased visibility of pawn shops (lombards, in Russian).
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 50: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Belarus and Ukraine
21 november 2021 · 47 min
In the first part, a little exploration of MID, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its decline - and yet why it still ought not to be taken lightly. Then in the second half I look at the current crises in Belarus and Ukraine. Lees meer
The article by Kadri Liik I mentioned is here, and my earlier 'Free Sergei Lavrov!' article here. I also looked at the Belarus crisis (and why it should not be turned into a 'Putin story') here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 49: Survivalism in Russia. And cheese.
14 november 2021 · 51 min
While still processing a month spent in Russia, I feel that the uniting leitmotif is survivalism, that every sector - from ordinary Russians through the liberal intelligentsia and the bureaucracy, all the way to the Kremlin - are hunkering down, bracing for winter. I explore what this means to each. Lees meer
Then in the second half I tackle a series of questions sent in by patrons, from whether I felt at risk in Russia (in short: no) to whether you can now get decent parmesan there (in short: yes). If anyone has any other such random questions they'd like me to answer, do send them my way.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 48: What can you learn from Tula? On Russian provincial life and politics, Governor Dyumin, and busses
24 oktober 2021 · 46 min
A trip to Tula, 200km south of Moscow, provides a chance to mix a little history and travelogue with some thoughts about what the city reveals about the nature of provincial life, regional politics and the state economy versus the market economy. In the second half, I look at Tula's governor Alexei Dyumin, a former bodyguard to Putin and for some still a potential successor. How much do governors matter? Lees meer
The travel blog I mention is Travels in Deepest Muscovy, which will later feature a photo-essay or two in Tula.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 47: Postcards from Moscow
17 oktober 2021 · 36 min
Just back to Russia, my first trip since February 2020, and for this podcast I try something different - a random collection of impressions, mainly recorded on the street (so apologies for the often poor sound quality). Normal podcasting will resume shortly! Lees meer
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 46: New 'Foreign Agent' restrictions and 'Hybrid Warfare'
2 oktober 2021 · 43 min
Two quite big topics this episode. First of all, the restrictive new rules on 'Foreign Agent' status that, if applied, would make it almost impossible to discuss military, security and even space topics. They are as much about drawing sharper lines - are you with us or against us - as encouraging self-censorship. Lees meer
Then, after the break, some rumination on 'hybrid war' - why it's not that helpful a term, and why, when we talk about Russia, there is no one notion of 'hybrid war' but three.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 45: Pretty much everything but the election: Lavrov's corruption, Team Navalny's strategy, Zapad-2021, Stories That Didn't Bark, and Shoigu's future
19 september 2021 · 42 min
I confess at this stage I couldn't think of much to say about the Russian elections that wasn't obvious, or hadn't been said, so instead I recorded a 'magazine' episode covering a range of other topics: Lees meer
Team Navalny's latest video (here), this time on the corruption of Foreign Minister Lavrov, and why the opposition needs a new big idea
The Zapad-2021 exercises and their political significance (coverage by Mike Kofman here and Konrad Muzyka here)
Three stories that went under-reported in Russia: on AUKUS, on Putin's health (my Spectator piece is here) and Sputnik V
Rumours that Sergei Shoigu is being sent to Siberia - in a good way.
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In Moscow's Shadows 44: As above, so below - a prison riot in Kamchatka and a society looking to a sanitised past for hope
6 september 2021 · 30 min
A shorter episode that looks at a vicious criminal's end in a prison riot in Kamchatka, and after talking a little about prison realities in Russia, considers some possible lessons for Russia as a whole. Lees meer
I mention the vexed issue of police numbers, something I discuss here and here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 43: Poklonskaya, Ethnic Rumbles and Naryshkin's Claims to be Putin's Mate
29 augustus 2021 · 51 min
Sometimes it's worth digging into what look like less important stories, to see what lessons the offer about the big picture developments, so I tackle three - who's likely to be the next ambassador to Cape Verde, why airfare hikes contribute to street violence, and why Naryshkin is now claiming to be a long-time mate of Putin's - and see what I can make of them. Lees meer
For those figures I threw out, the proportions of staff of different Presidential Administration departments estimated to be current or former security officers are:
63% Security Council (SB) Secretariat
28% Foreign Policy Directorate (UVneshP)
19% Expert Directorate (UE)
71% Directorate for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries (UMKSZS),
62% Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation (UPS)For the share of one-to-one or one-to-few meetings with the President in 2019:
1% Kostyukov (GRU)
5% Zolotov (National Guard(
5% Kolokoltsev (MVD)
11% Naryshkin
17% Bortnikov (FSB)
23% Shoigu (MoD)
29% Patrushev
9% OtherYou can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 42: Moscow's Afghan Worries, and the Trouble with Predictions
21 augustus 2021 · 39 min
There may be a little schadenfreude as America abandons Afghanistan and the Taliban sweep into Kabul, but Moscow is worried, above all about the country's three traditions exports: terror, refugees and opium. Lees meer
The fate of the Afghan regime - and the way the 1991 August Coup caught the West by surprise - are also reminders of the problems in trying to predict the future...especially when it comes to Russia.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 41: The Communist Party Embattled...And Occultism and Russian Politics
4 augustus 2021 · 35 min
Having long relied on it as a stalwart of the ‘systemic opposition’, the Kremlin now seems to be treating the Communist Party (KPRF) as if it were a real opposition party. Might this push it into real opposition? I build off a recent piece I wrote in the Moscow Times. The previous podcast I mentioned is here. Lees meer
And in the second half, I indulge myself musing about occultism in Russian politics, from the search for Shambhala to 'red battle magician.' But is occultism perhaps really the best lens to understand it, after all?
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 40: 'Mishustinism' and 'Kozakisation' - the adventures of technocrats in Moscow and the Donbas
27 juli 2021 · 43 min
Is PM Mikhail Mishustin thinking long-term? His vision for Russia seems to be technocratic, maybe even techno-authoritarian, but it is interesting - and maybe implicitly subversive. Lees meer
In the second half, I look at Russian-Ukrainian relations over the Donbas, public lunacy and private pragmatism. There's all kinds of silliness - including a case Moscow is taking to the European Court of Human Rights - but maybe the very tone actually reflects the resigned pragmatism new Donbas 'curator' Dmitry Kozak is bringing to freezing the conflict.
The Fabian Burkhardt article I mention is here, and my previous podcast on Putin's Ukrainian article is here.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 39: Putin's latest article on Ukraine and his attempt to place himself on the right side of history
13 juli 2021 · 19 min
Another short, single-segment episode, this time looking at 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,' Putin's latest venture into the role of amateur historian (available in English here). Equal parts history, polemic and paranoia, it says more about VVP's state of mind than anything else, in my opinion. Lees meer
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In Moscow's Shadows 38: The topic I never thought I'd address: Sport
12 juli 2021 · 20 min
A brief, single-segment podcast on the distinctive roles of sport for today's Kremlin. Not a topic that I'd usually expect to discuss... Lees meer
The journal article I mentioned on RT is ‘Russia isn’t a country of Putins!’: How RT bridged the credibility gap in Russian public diplomacy during the 2018 FIFA World Cup' by Rhys Crilley et al, here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 37: Direct Line and the Politics behind Politics; and Wars in Afghanistan Compared
3 juli 2021 · 41 min
The main reasons for the annual ritual of Putin's Direct Line phone-in encounter with the Russian people is to allow him to present himself as the caring father of the nation, savvy chief executive and watchful tsar. However, there is also a less-understood dimension: how the Kremlin uses it to gauge the mood of the masses. If it leads to genuine concerns being addressed, even in the name of keeping an authoritarian kleptocracy in power, is that a bad thing? Lees meer
In the second part, I briefly draw some comparisons - differences but also similarities - between the Soviet and US/Coalition wars in Afghanistan.
The Raam op Rusland article I mentioned is here. The podcast which talks about polling by the FSO is here.
For more on my research on Afghanistan, the book of the PhD is Afghanistan - the Soviet Union's last war (Routledge)
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In Moscow's Shadows 36: Good News/Bad News: The Geneva Summit and Coronavirus on the Rise
18 juni 2021 · 32 min
The Geneva Summit: frankly, as good as one could expect, with Biden offering a shrewd carrot and stick - Russia can feel itself more like a great power, if it plays more by the rules. No step-change breakthrough, but a decent start. Lees meer
Worse news about the spread of COVID-19 in Russia, and again Putin and the government has gone AWOL, forcing Moscow mayor Sobyanin to take the lead. Why does this happen?
The Baunov article I mentioned is here; you can also read something I wrote about the importance of emotions in handling Putin (I should take full credit for everything that went well in Geneva...) here and an encouraged after-action report by Anna Arutunyan here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 35: Crackdown, Belarus, HMS Defender and the Putin-Biden Summit
12 juni 2021 · 39 min
A bit of a grab-bag: what to make of the continuing crackdown in Russia, is there scope to undermine the cohesion of the security forces in Belarus, should HMS Defender be heading into the Black Sea, and, in the second half, thoughts about the upcoming Geneva Summit between Biden and Putin. Lees meer
The article by Josh Huminski I mention is here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 34: Belarus, of course
27 mei 2021 · 44 min
A spur-of-the-moment, off-the-top-of-my-head take on what's going (wr)on(g) in Belarus: the Russian connection or rather the absence of any evidence of one, Lukashenko's motivations, and above all what can be done. We need a strategy, a sense of what we want, and above all to realise that we cannot force change on Belarus but should rather help the Belarusian people generate it. Lees meer
The article by Leonid Ragozin I mention is here. For a general take of mine from August of last year that I think still broadly holds up. see here. On Vakulchik and general Belarusian security politics, I note a short cellcast of mine here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 33: The Russian Orthodox Church PLC; and No Country For Old Securocrats
23 mei 2021 · 59 min
Is the Russian Orthodox Church a spiritual community, a political institution, or a business empire? The truth of the matter is that it has become all three, and I toy with the idea that we should think of it as FGUP RosBog, Federal State Unitary Enterprise 'Russian God'... Lees meer
In the second half, I note that most of Russia's security chiefs are in their late 60s. Are they going to be allowed to leave when they hit the compulsory retirement age of 70, or will Putin seek to hold onto them? Either has distinct political implications.
The other podcast episodes I mention are: on Naryshkin here, on Putin's reluctance to let people go here, and on Sergei Korolev here (see also this article)
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In Moscow's Shadows 32: Victory Day and Memory Politics, and the Kremlin in WW2
9 mei 2021 · 36 min
Today (9 May) is Victory Day, and the sad truth is that this also inevitably means claims and counter claims of 'memory wars' over the Great Patriotic War. So what can and should we do about this? Lees meer
And in the second part, a little historical vignette: how was the Kremlin fortress protected during WW2? The answer is by hiding it in plain sight.
The Henry Jackson Society event convened by Dr Jade McGlynn that I mention is here, and the previous Victory Day podcast is here. If you want to read Putin's speech, it's here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 31: Navalny, Patrushev, Orban, and more [RELOADED]
1 mei 2021 · 52 min
A mysterious glitch silenced the first, Navalny-related part of this podcast. This has now been fixed, and the full, uncensored version is now up - should now be up. Lees meer
From why the Kremlin fears Navalny to what Patrushev believes and whether Hungary is a Russian proxy, I reply to a selection of patron's questions.
The articles I mentioned are my take on 'post-post-modern authoritarianism' in the Moscow Times here and Patrushev's interview in Argumenty i Fakty here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 30: The (Czech) Lion that Roared
18 april 2021 · 29 min
A personal and unpolished snap response to the news that the Czech government is expelling 18 Russian diplomat-spies after an investigation linked the GRU's Unit 29155 - and the infamous 'Petrov and Boshirov' of Salisbury novichok fame - with the explosion at an arms depot in 2014 that killed two. And I touch on how this may help Prague adopt more of a leadership role in Central Europe, another of my hobbyhorses... Lees meer
There are previous articles of mine on the 2020 'ricin case' here and President Zeman's Russophilia here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 29: Is Russia Declining, and Is Putin's Handsome?
13 april 2021 · 34 min
Why is there this talk of Russia as a 'declining power' - and is it true? I'd suggest we ought to use the term with caution, not least as we are all declining... Lees meer
The Saradzhan and Abdullaev piece I mentioned is here.
In the second part, I take a silly survey that claimed to find that Putin is Russia's most handsome man and combine it with criminal slang and plastic pop music to speculate about power versus legitimacy...
Oh, and if you want more of that song (gods have mercy on your soul), the full video is here.
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In Moscow's Shadows 28: The LDPR: Paralunatic Wing of United Russia
2 april 2021 · 42 min
Rumours that Zhirinovsky is going to step down from leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party look more credible these days, and oligarch Oleg Deripaska is even being mooted as a successor. So, it's time for a bit of an exploration of the LDPR, what it stands for, what role it plays, and where it might go. Lees meer
After the break, I take a quick look at a story in Znak on police procurement (here) and the Amazing Activities of the Singular Bastrykin. I talk about Korolev in this cellcast and in this article.
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In Moscow's Shadows 27: Men of Force and Forceful Language
24 maart 2021 · 43 min
Who are the main 'siloviki' or 'men of force,' the heads of Russia's security structures? In response to a request from a patron, I give a run-through of the people and their prospects. Lees meer
Relevant other IMS episodes I mention are on Shoigu (here), Naryshkin (here) and Patrushev (here).
And then after the break, I take a quick look at Biden's "killer" comment, how it was received, and what it might - or might not - mean.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.
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