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HOLY SH*T: The Yield Curve Just Inverted Again
26 februari 2025 · 20 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerRates are down sharply, so much the broad yield curve re-inverted from one critical spot. Given the macro context with crashing consumer confidence and a steep loss of economic momentum, particularly in the services sector, that re-inversion along with a multi-month low in 2-year yields is telling us everything we need to know.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Treasury Yields Slide as Confidence Gauge Stokes Economy Fears
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-25/treasuries-rally-as-traders-boost-bets-on-fed-interest-rate-cutsConference Board Consumer Confidence
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Microsoft Issues a Dire Warning "The AI Bubble Is About to Burst"
25 februari 2025 · 20 min
Is there trouble brewing in the AI bubble? A report came out earlier today that Microsoft was scaling back its investments, one the company denied. Its substance, however, aligns with everything else that's going on, from Warren Buffett curiously choosing not to explain Berkshire's stock selling to the deteriorating conditions in South Korea. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Microsoft Dropped Some AI Data Center Leases, TD Cowen Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-24/microsoft-cancels-leases-for-ai-data-centers-analyst-saysBloomberg South Korea’s Chip Exports Lead Trade Gains Fueling Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/south-korea-s-chip-exports-lead-trade-gains-supporting-economyDow Jones South Korea Government Expects Economy to Slow in 2025
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202501011398/south-korea-government-expects-economy-to-slow-in-2025Bloomberg Bank of Korea Rate Cut Not a Done Deal This Month, Rhee Warns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-06/bank-of-korea-s-rhee-leaves-door-open-to-another-rate-holdhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Walmart Just Warned the US Economy is COLLAPSING
24 februari 2025 · 20 min
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Lees meerWalmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
SPG PMI press release
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Last Time Credit Spreads Were This Tight, EVERYTHING Collapsed
23 februari 2025 · 21 min
A tinderbox waiting to explode? When spreads are this low, and complacency this high, that means everyone is on one side the market. Not because they want to be, they have to be. And they all believe that they'll be able to get to the exits even though everyone is searching for the same signals. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Money Managers See Dangers in Credit’s Eerie Calm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/credit-s-eerie-calm-has-some-money-managers-seeing-danger-signsBloomberg Junk Bond Guru Sees Rising Distress Ahead as Banks Tighten Lending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-15/junk-bond-guru-fridson-sees-rising-distress-ahead-credit-weeklyBIS The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024
https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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NEW $5,000 Stimulus Plan ANNOUNCED (It's NOT What You Think)
21 februari 2025 · 19 min
WTF!? This really better be a stunt or a bad joke because if it's not then we're faced with more bad economics. This proposal is exactly the SH&% that is supposed to be ending. The government wouldn't be giving anyone "their" money back, just borrowing more to make it look like that would what happens. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Milton Friedman - Tyranny of the Status Quo - Part 1 - Beneficiaries w/ David Brooks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRXEk7su62wThe Hill Adviser behind ‘DOGE dividend’ check program: It’s reasonable
https://thehill.com/business/5154650-james-fishback-donald-trump-elon-musk-doge-dividends/Fox $5,000 DOGE check? Trump backs idea to send some savings to Americans
https://www.fox9.com/news/5000-doge-dividend-check-trump-backs-savings-americansCBO
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/60870-By-the-Numbers.pdf
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870#:~:text=The%20Budget%20Outlook-,Deficits,to%20%242.7%20trillion%20by%202035.https://www.eurodollar.university
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Australian Central Bank Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World
20 februari 2025 · 19 min
The last central bank finally gives in to reality, joining the rate cutting cycle in one final blow to higher for longer. This brings RBA closer to its neighbor RBNZ even though, on the surface, the two seem far apart in every respect. For all this alleged differences, however, the dollar has drastically other ideas which is why dollar for dollar for dollar, they're all the same globally synchronized. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Australia’s central bank cuts rates for the first time in more than four years, flags economic uncertainties
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/18/australia-central-bank-cuts-interest-rate-for-the-first-time-in-over-four-years.htmlBloomberg ECB’s Panetta Says Economic Weakness Is Worse Than Expected
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-19/ecb-s-panetta-says-economic-weakness-is-worse-than-expectedBloomberg New Zealand to Slow Pace of Easing After Third Big Rate Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-19/new-zealand-delivers-third-big-rate-cut-to-revive-ailing-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The German Government Is About To Fall—But The Real Crisis Is Just Beginning
19 februari 2025 · 21 min
The poor economy brought down Germany's government. With the election looming on Sunday, attention turns to who will take over. The inconvenient truth, for the economy, is that it doesn't matter. The whole world needs to stop looking for answers from politicians who have NONE. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters German voters demand change as Europe's biggest economy stalls
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-voters-demand-change-europes-biggest-economy-stalls-2025-02-17/Bloomberg German Investor Outlook Jumps Most in Two Years Before Vote
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-18/german-investor-outlook-improves-most-in-two-years-before-voteBloomberg What’s in Store for Germany as Far-Right AfD Eyes Big Election Gains?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-18/germany-election-what-to-know-as-far-right-afd-boosted-by-musk-in-spotlightNYT Keynesianism Explained https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/keynesianism-explained/
https://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SH*T! Warren Buffett Just Dumped BILLIONS in Bank Stocks
18 februari 2025 · 21 min
Warren Buffett continues to sell stocks. But it's not just disposing of stocks, which ones. At the same time, even Wall Street is beginning to take note of the dangers over dramatic complacency in risk markets like junk credit along with stocks. With both marketplaces waiting for a recession each recognizes, they're being eroded by the one we already have. That could very well explain why the selling continued at Berkshire. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fortune Buffett sold more BofA stock while keeping Apple stake intact
https://fortune.com/2025/02/14/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-bank-of-america-stock-apple-stake-q4/Berkshire Hathaway 13-F
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012325002701/xslForm13F_X02/39042.xmlBloomberg Junk Bond Guru Sees Rising Distress Ahead as Banks Tighten Lending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-15/junk-bond-guru-fridson-sees-rising-distress-ahead-credit-weeklyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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MASSIVE Moves in Interest Rates Causing Panic Across Global Markets
17 februari 2025 · 20 min
From the outside, everything that could have gone wrong for bonds did. CPI. PPI. Auctions. Hawks. You name it. Despite all that, what bond yields did instead points to deeper fundamentals that are never talked about by mainstream sources - including the new Treasury Secretary. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Retail Sales Just COLLAPSED Signaling a Major Economic MELTDOWN
16 februari 2025 · 20 min
Amazon warned the start of 2025 was rough, and boy was it. Government data on consumer spending as well goods production came in exactly that way. And while extreme winter weather played a role in each one, it was clearly the opposite of what everyone says. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NYT Amazon Says Profits Rose 88% but Cautions Growth May Slow
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/technology/amazon-earnings-profits.htmlCNN US retail spending plunged last month, falling for the first time since August
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/economy/us-retail-spending-january/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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India is CRASHING and it’s Quietly Spreading to the Rest of the World
14 februari 2025 · 18 min
India has suffered a major currency drop, serious interbank liquidity problems, one of the largest central bank FX interventions in its history, a stock rout, and, for good measure, the third of three straight negative CPIs. And that's just the last four days. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg India Central Bank Punishes Rupee Speculators in Surprise Move
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-11/india-central-bank-intervenes-to-curb-speculative-rupee-betsReters Indian central bank hikes overnight fund infusion post heavy FX intervention
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/indian-central-bank-infuse-record-overnight-funds-post-heavy-fx-intervention-2025-02-12/Bloomberg Modi Returns to US With Lost Clout as Stock, Economic Boom Fades
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-12/modi-returns-to-us-with-lost-clout-as-stock-economic-boom-fadesBloomberg Indian Stocks Trim Losses as Dip Buying Provides Respite
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-12/indian-stocks-slump-to-lowest-since-june-as-global-funds-fleehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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This Was Worse Than EVERYONE Expected (CPI Breakdown)
13 februari 2025 · 20 min
Shocker of a CPI report; or was it? The bigger shock came afterward when Chevron stunned with its massive shake-up. At the same time - and for the same reasons - the oil market is undergoing a dramatic change of its own. And these are far from inflationary. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS January CPI
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htmCNBC Chevron will slash up to 20% of its workforce as part of cost-cutting plan
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-to-20percent-of-its-workforce-as-part-of-cost-cutting-plan.htmlBarrons Chevron to Lay Off Up to 20% of Workers. Why the Oil Industry Is Slimming Down.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chevron-layoffs-oil-dividends-05fb9b8aWSJ Chevron Slashes Spending, Announces Job Cuts
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-12-05-2024/card/chevron-slashes-spending-announces-job-cuts-giqWm4lRhl4XDmoPDxvdCNBC Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won’t go away
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.htmlCNN The Fed might not be done raising interest rates just yet
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/11/economy/fed-interest-rate-hike-probability/index.htmlRueters Inflation-wary US rate options market cautiously prices for 2024 Fed hike
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/inflation-wary-us-rate-options-market-cautiously-prices-2024-fed-hike-2024-04-29/https://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SH*T: McDonald’s Customers Can’t Even Afford a Big Mac
12 februari 2025 · 19 min
We're finding more and more evidence in 2025 that escaping the economy of the past few years won't be so easy and neat as many were hoping. The golden arches reported their worst sales estimates for American stores since the lockdowns. Those results fit with other retailers struggling mightily among other commercial segments, as data now suggests consumer fears over the labor market are compounding the downturn. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC McDonald’s revenue disappoints, as U.S. sales see worst drop since pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/mcdonalds-mcd-q4-2024-earnings.htmlCNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/03/why-dollar-general-and-dollar-tree-are-struggling.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/03/why-dollar-general-and-dollar-tree-are-struggling.htmlBloomberg Shein's Growth is Hurting Discount Retailers as Store Closures Surge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-02-11/shein-and-temu-s-growth-is-hurting-discount-retailers-ahead-of-tariffsTarget
https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/11/target-corporation-reports-third-quarter-earningshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2025/01/target-corporation-provides-holiday-sales-update,-announces-leadership-team-changes
FRBNY SCE
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/Bloomberg US Consumer Sentiment Drops to Seven-Month Low on Price Worries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-07/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-to-seven-month-low-on-price-worrieshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Global Auto Exports Signal EXTREME Recession Warning
11 februari 2025 · 18 min
Auto exports out of Mexico plunged in January. While bad news for the struggling Mexican economy, this is more evidence for the growing global backlash of which the car business is right in the middle of. Cars aren't a victim but now a cause for concern the world over - including the primary reason for the struggle to begin with. America. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg German Industrial Production Falls Most in Five Months on Cars
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-07/german-industrial-production-falls-most-in-five-months-on-carsBloomberg German Government Slashes 2025 Forecast Before Snap Election
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/german-government-slashes-growth-forecast-before-snap-electionhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Mexico’s Emergency Rate Cut Sends a MAJOR Global Warning
10 februari 2025 · 18 min
Mexico is now the latest to accelerate, upping its ante as the situation reaches a critical turning point. It's been coming for a long time, yet central bankers worldwide now have a convenient excuse to cover the deterioration. The same one American consumers are now fretting with confidence rolling over and going sharply lower. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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BREAKING: Payroll Data Was an Absolute DISASTER
8 februari 2025 · 20 min
Complete mess. Payrolls revised massively lower. The govt discovers three million people and assumes two million were employed this whole time. More important than those, hours are shrinking to the point the average workweek is the lowest its been since MARCH 2020. Strong and resilient, as always. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS Employment Situation
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmBLS Adjustments to Household Survey Population Estimates in January 2025
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps-pop-control-adjustments.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The UK Economy Is Falling Apart, And It’s About to Get Much Worse
7 februari 2025 · 18 min
A major shift is underway now at the Bank of England. After being among the most cautious central banks it is being forced more to the dovish side. Even one of the most arch-hawks in all global central banking ditched her previous opposition to any rate cuts in order to urge a fifty-bps cut today! More reactions to the consequences from a world that forgot how to grow. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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OH SH*T! The Bond Market Is Sending A MASSIVE Recession Warning
6 februari 2025 · 19 min
Bond yields have fallen sharply over the past two weeks, having now roundtripped the past two FOMC meetings, going all the way back to where they'd been before the "hawkish rate cut" in December. Latest data on the services economy go a long way to explaining why, with signs of one-offs and non-economic artificial factors more and more coming out of it. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/treasuries-death-spiral-risk-is-brushed-aside-by-foreign-fundsBloomberg Working Americans Turn to Food Banks as Fed Inflation Battle Drags On
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-01-27/us-inflation-leads-families-to-struggle-for-food-fed-debates-rate-pathhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Oh Sh*t... NO JOBS Are Hiring
5 februari 2025 · 19 min
No one is hiring yet no one is firing. The latter doesn't mean employers aren't getting rid of workers, because they are. Lots of them. A hiring freeze is only the first part of cost-cutting in a weak economy. From consumer surveys to govt jobs estimates, the labor market is on everyone's mind right now, employers and employees. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Nissan offers buyouts as US production scales back
https://www.automotivedive.com/news/nissan-buyouts-workforce-production-reduction-2025-tennessee-mississippi/738816/NBC News Bridgestone closes a tire plant in Tennessee with 700 layoffs and other reductions
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bridgestone-announces-tire-plant-closure-tennessee-700-layoffs-reducti-rcna189277Bloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-31/stmicro-eyes-workforce-cuts-of-up-to-6-as-chip-slump-drags-onUS Consumer Confidence Retreated in January
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Jan-2025https://www.eurodollar.university
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Trade Wars Have Begun, and Canada Has Gotten CRUSHED
4 februari 2025 · 20 min
Opening round of the 2025 trade wars. Mexico and Canada in the crosshairs. Neither of them stood a chance. The pounding started even before the negotiations began. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NYT Here’s What to Know About Trump’s Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/business/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.htmlTruth Social, Trump Mexico Message
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113940711907400754Bloomberg Car Prices Face $3,000 Increase as Automakers Worry Over Tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-02/car-prices-face-3-000-increase-as-trump-tariffs-hit-auto-sectorFinancial Post Trump takes aim at Canada's banking sector as tariffs loom
https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/trump-takes-aim-canada-banking-sector-tariffs-loomLive updates: Trump discusses tariffs with Canada and Mexico
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/live-blog/trump-canada-mexico-tariffs-live-updates-rcna190371As Trade War Intensifies, Watch for Soaring Inflation, July 2018
https://assuredam.com/2018/07/as-trade-war-intensifies-watch-out-for-inflation/FOMC Transcript June 2019
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20190619meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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What Record Gold Prices Reveal About the Global Economy’s Fragility
3 februari 2025 · 18 min
Gold has been soaring all of 2025 so far, reaching a new all-time high this past week as yet another major cyclical warning was triggered. Trade wars may account for some of the urgency, the real story is how in a world that's entirely artificial more in it desperately demand something real. It's getting easier to sort what's real from so much fakery. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-31/stmicro-eyes-workforce-cuts-of-up-to-6-as-chip-slump-drags-onhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Banking Crisis Was Just the Start —What’s Really Happening Behind the Scenes
2 februari 2025 · 20 min
Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023 kicked off a chain of events that has cascaded across money, banks, and the real economy. The world economy didn't forget how to grow, the banking crisis of early '23 proved to be the final inflection point. Central banks may have won the battle over banks, then lost the war where it truly mattered. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Europe Is in Full Blown "Crisis" Mode, Here's What that Means for the World
31 januari 2025 · 20 min
Banks are in full-on defensive mode, GDP is in a huge and growing hole, and central bankers are realizing they're stuck no matter what. The end of last year for Europe stands as a stark warning that this global transition remains far from over with - even after two years of it already. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB statement
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.htmlBloomberg ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/ecb-cuts-rates-for-fifth-time-as-euro-zone-economy-flatlinesBloomberg Traders’ ECB Rate Cut Bets Fuel Biggest Yield Drop in Two Months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/german-two-year-yields-slump-as-traders-boost-ecb-rate-cut-betshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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HUGE Global Central Bank Decision Today (Here's What You Need to Know)
30 januari 2025 · 33 min
Reviewing the Fed, the Canadians, Sweden, and previewing the ECB. Market reactions and what really happened at the FOMC. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Bets on Big Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decision
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/bets-on-bigger-treasuries-rally-are-booming-before-fed-decisionBloomberg Traders Bet ECB Will Need to Deepen and Accelerate Rate Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/traders-bet-ecb-will-need-to-deepen-and-accelerate-rate-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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BREAKING: Shipping Data Reveals The Global Economy Is Cracking
29 januari 2025 · 18 min
Shipping rates have plunged in January. The sinking demand for raw materials is another warning about the state of the economy in 2025. It was one echoed yet again by American consumers who, after a short reprieve on rate cuts and election, are right back to worrying about jobs and incomes all over again. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Investopedia
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.aspBloomberg US Consumer Confidence Drops to Four-Month Low on Job Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/us-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-on-job-marketConference Board
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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China’s Economy is COLLAPSING, and Even the Government is Panicking
28 januari 2025 · 21 min
Chinese banks are the real story, even as China's government (intentionally?) stole the spotlight with its AI-knock-off, a distraction from the latest real economy warning and most importantly the banking sector's latest. The credit crisis in the latter may finally be coming to a head as it keeps the former from stabilizing. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
AA Xi Jinping
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/on-chinese-new-year-s-eve-xi-vows-to-confront-challenges-without-hesitation-/3463706Bloomberg China’s Economy Stumbles in Sign Rebound Hinges on More Stimulus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-27/china-s-factory-activity-cools-ahead-of-major-new-year-holidayBloomberg China Starts Lowering Price Goals to Match Deflationary Reality
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/china-starts-lowering-price-goals-to-match-deflationary-realityBloomberg Markets Sound Alarm Over Deflationary Spiral in China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/china-investors-sound-alarm-over-japan-style-deflation-as-yields-hit-record-lowBloomberg Hong Kong’s Property Distress Is Catching Up With City’s Banks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-26/hong-kong-s-property-distress-is-catching-up-with-city-s-bankshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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South Korea is PLUNGING and it’s Spreading to the Rest of the World
27 januari 2025 · 18 min
South Korea is the latest to fall into "forgot how to grow" and Texas Instruments showed the world why. Both were slammed this week for getting to the same place from different perspectives. Critical cyclical indications that shocked the consensus. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Texas Instruments Suffers Worst Rout Since 2020 on Weak Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/texas-instruments-outlook-signals-chip-slump-is-persistinghttps://www.eurodollar.university
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OH SH*T... The Global banking System Is Breaking Down
26 januari 2025 · 22 min
While the dollar was screaming higher the past few months, that eurodollar disorder had foreign govts absolutely raiding their reserves, money dealers hoarding record amounts of collateral and record Treasuries being piled up by depositories. And those were just the beginning. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Trump DEMANDS Rates Cut NOW—Will this Crash the Economy?
24 januari 2025 · 20 min
President Trump created quite a stir in his speech to Davos, demanding, among other things, lower oil prices from OPEC plus lower interest rates out of Jay Powell. In fact, those two are linked with the one expected to pave the way for the other. What's the real game here? More important, what are the chances this can work? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Trump Urges Lower Oil Prices, Interest Rate Cuts at Davos
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/trump-urges-opec-to-lower-oil-prices-warns-of-tariffs-at-davosCNBC President Donald Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/president-donald-trump-says-hell-demand-that-interest-rates-drop-immediately.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Real Economic Effects of Trump’s Policies: A Deep Dive
23 januari 2025 · 18 min
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada begin on February 1, or do they? Whether President Trump is merely posturing or not, the threat is real and the situation globally they would be starting from makes for a difficult mix. That's why the dollar is rising, rates are falling, and real economy variables are already experiencing significant pressure. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Mexico, Canada by Feb. 1
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/trump-plans-to-enact-25-tariffs-on-mexico-canada-by-feb-1WSJ The Big Risk of a Trade War: Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-risk-of-a-trade-war-inflation-1522926022Bloomberg Why the Freight Market Is Stuck
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-17/j-b-hunt-warning-shows-freight-is-stuck-in-placeRueters Canadian dollar posts biggest decline among G10 currencies
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/canadian-dollar-posts-biggest-decline-among-g10-currencies-2025-01-16/Bloomberg Trump’s Pledge to Slap 25% Tariffs on Mexico Sinks Peso
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/trump-s-pledge-to-slap-25-tariffs-on-mexico-sinks-pesohttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The UK Labor Market Is Sending A MASSIVE Warning to the World
23 januari 2025 · 20 min
UK payrolls took a massive hit in both November AND December. While the media looks for reasons to blame, the answer instead comes from all the rest of the world. Unemployment is on the rise all over the place, with the situations in some of them going way beyond softening or weakness. More than a few places you might not think of having a major employment downturn are, a warning to the world this is getting really serious. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Surprise UK Retail Sales Drop Fuels Economic Growth Worries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-17/uk-retail-sales-fall-in-latest-setback-for-struggling-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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What Are Shadow Banks and How Do They Silently Control the World?
21 januari 2025 · 21 min
Many regulators worry there is the potential for systemic crisis begun by so-called shadow banks. The banks you already know are the last one. In the decade and a half since 2008 the eurodollar world has evolved yet again. The aftermath of that last one opened the door to go back into the shadows. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg US Lays Path for More Financial Giants to Get Fed Oversight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/yellen-lays-path-for-more-financial-giants-to-get-fed-oversightBloomberg Shadow Bank Loans From US Lenders Surpass $1 Trillion in Fed Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-10/shadow-bank-loans-from-us-lenders-surpass-1-trillion-in-fed-dataIMF Shadow Banks: Out of the Eyes of Regulators
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Shadow-Bankshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SH*T: Shocking New Data Shows Holiday Shopping COLLAPSE
20 januari 2025 · 17 min
The verdict for the Christmas season is in and...not good. Consumers wanted to spend. They tried to spend. They couldn't spend, not what they wanted or retailers needed. Americans simply don't have enough funds and so the downturn marches on. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation with Steve Van Metre
Signet Jewelers Announces Holiday Sales Results
https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2025/Signet-Jewelers-Announces-Holiday-Sales-Results/default.aspxAmericans Are Spending Less On Streaming Services – Here’s Why
https://9meters.com/entertainment/streaming/americans-are-on-average-spending-less-on-streaming-services-in-2024-compared-to-the-previous-yearhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Germany's Crisis is Spreading to the Rest of the World
19 januari 2025 · 19 min
Germany's economy is doing something we've never seen before. Not only did it contract for the second straight year, that's not even the most amazing part. The general pattern it is taking is one that is being repeated all around the world. It's as if the entire global economy stopped growing. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg German Economy Shrinks for Second Year in New Blow to Scholz
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/german-economy-shrinks-for-second-straight-year-before-electionIFO Press Release Germany: Europe's largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession
https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2024-12-19/headcount-reduction-germany-more-likely-december-2024Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/germany-europes-largest-economy-is-facing-a-third-consecutive-year-of-recession-13289549Bloomberg ECB Will Keep Easing With Economy Losing Momentum, Guindos Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/ecb-will-keep-easing-with-economy-losing-momentum-guindos-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SH*T! Has a Financial Crisis Begun in China?!
17 januari 2025 · 19 min
China's money markets have started to come unglued, with serious illiquidity driving up money rates. Despite provoking one of the largest liquidity operations in twenty years from the PBOC yesterday, the disorder came back even worse today. All of this against the backdrop of a currency fight and the prospect China's bank credit problem becomes a full-blown liquidity crisis. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China's Central Bank Pumps Near-Historic Level of Cash Into Financial System
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/pboc-dials-up-short-term-liquidity-injections-amid-cash-squeezeBloomberg China Cash Squeeze Rolls on Even After Central Bank’s Infusions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/china-cash-squeeze-rolls-on-even-after-pboc-liquidity-boostshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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CPI Shocks The Market, Everything You Need To Know
16 januari 2025 · 31 min
Treasuries exploded on the release of the "inflation" figures for December. Those were rather unremarkable, taken in isolation wouldn't have been able to explain why such a heavy market reaction. There is much more to the CPI and what's going on in the bond market. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Why Some Bond Traders Bet Relentless Selloff Will Soon Lose Steam
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-14/bond-traders-wager-slump-set-to-ease-with-key-cpi-data-aheadBloomberg Fed’s Barkin Says CPI Data Show Inflation Headed Toward 2% Goal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/fed-s-barkin-says-cpi-data-show-inflation-headed-toward-2-goalBloomberg Fed Finds New Reason for Confidence in Obscure Inflation Gauge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/fed-finds-new-reason-for-confidence-in-obscure-inflation-gaugehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Oil Just EXPLODED Higher and it's CRUSHING The Economy
15 januari 2025 · 21 min
Russian sanctions triggered more than a surge in oil prices. Financial markets near-panicked bought in near-term futures contracts. While the jump in energy is already being called an huge inflation risk, it isn't even close. On the contrary, oil spikes always end a certain way. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNN Biden admin imposes harsh sanctions on Russian oil industry to cut off funding for Ukraine war effort
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/10/politics/biden-admin-russia-energy-sanctions-ukraine/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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India's Currency Crisis Is Spreading
14 januari 2025 · 21 min
Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee’s currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of Jay Powell or Donald Trump. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Hindustan Times Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty tanks, rupee hits all-time low
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/stock-market-crash-sensex-tanks-nearly-700-points-on-open-nifty-down-over-200-101736737599073.htmlBloomberg Deepening India Slowdown Sinks Hope for New Era of 8% Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-s-deepening-slowdown-dashes-hopes-for-new-era-of-8-growthBloomberg India’s Central Bank Said to Ease Rupee Drought With FX Swaps
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-s-central-bank-said-to-ease-rupee-drought-with-fx-swapsBusiness Standard 'If they tax us, we tax them': Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on India
https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/trump-threatens-reciprocal-tariffs-india-trade-conflict-124121800321_1.htmlBloomberg It May Rain Downgrades This Earnings Season in India
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-market-buzz-big-money-in-small-companies-looks-tough-nowBloomberg India Fixing Record Trade Gap After Overstating Gold Imports
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-fixing-record-trade-deficit-after-overstating-gold-importshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Labor Market EXPLODES Higher, Are We on the Brink of a New Economic Era?
13 januari 2025 · 18 min
Another blowout payroll report, way above every expectation. That makes two in a row for the Est. Survey post-election. Plus, a big rebound for the HH Survey. Trump-bump, a sign of a resurgent economy finally shaking off the doldrums of the past year-plus? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SH*T! China’s Currency Crisis Is Worse Than Anyone Expected
12 januari 2025 · 20 min
China's yuan is hanging by a thread, the closest it has ever been to going over the government limit. Finally, even the mainstream media has caught on this has nothing to do with Jay Powell and the Fed. The bazooka has been utterly exposed. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg PBOC Halts Bond Buying to Defend Yuan as Economic Gloom Worsens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/pboc-says-it-will-temporarily-halt-buying-of-government-bondsBloomberg China’s Market Support Falls Short as Economic Gloom Deepens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/china-s-market-support-falls-short-as-economic-gloom-deepensBloomberg China Ramps Up Yuan Support With Record Hong Kong Bill Issuance
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/pboc-taps-record-bill-issuance-in-hong-kong-to-support-yuanBloomberg Yuan Short Sellers Squeezed by Soaring Hong Kong Funding Costs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/offshore-yuan-borrowing-costs-surge-as-currency-support-in-focushttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Credit Just PLUNGED, Here's What It Means for the Economy
10 januari 2025 · 19 min
Credit card balances crashed in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That's a major warning but not about spending. With such a negative signal instead relating to jobs and the labor market, why the hell are LT rates...rising? The answer to the question can be found in Canada and Germany. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Truth About America’s Job Market Crash – What’s Coming Next?
9 januari 2025 · 19 min
And now for some layoffs to go with the ongoing alarming drop in hiring. More strong evidence the labor market in the US is on the edge of the Beveridge cliff. It may not actually be a cliff in the literal sense, yet all the data points to the economy being at that point...if not already past it. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SH*T: Something Big Is Happening To European Banks
8 januari 2025 · 20 min
European banks are not acting like either inflation is breaking back out or that the economy is going to be fine and hit its widely-expected soft landing. Instead, what they are doing is the other side of the weak euro. Both are further corroborated by the latest from France and especially Switzerland, with another warning coming from the Swiss on more than "inflation." Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Traders See Euro Hitting Dollar Parity as Soon as This Month
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/traders-look-past-euro-s-bounce-for-parity-as-soon-as-this-monthBloomberg French Government Tempers Budget Goal to Shelter Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/france-aims-for-2025-deficit-between-5-and-5-5-of-gdpReuters Swiss inflation falls again, pointing to more central bank rate cuts
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swiss-inflation-falls-again-pointing-more-central-bank-rate-cuts-2025-01-07/https://www.eurodollar.university
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Canada Has Fallen: Here's What It Means for the World
7 januari 2025 · 19 min
Canada's Prime Minister resigned, as expected, just as Canada announces more troubling economic data. The whole saga of PM Trudeau's downfall is actually perfectly illustrated by the loonie; and it applies to a lot more than Canada. It's a warning to both existing governments as well as the successors who take over for them after voters have had enough. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fox Canada’s Trudeau announces resignation following party pressure amid criticisms of Trump, budget handling
https://www.foxnews.com/world/canadas-trudeau-announces-resignation-following-party-pressure-amid-criticisms-trump-budget-handlingBloomberg Canada’s Economy Shrank in November for First Time This Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-23/canada-s-economy-shrank-in-november-for-first-time-this-yearBloomberg One in Four UK Firms Cut Jobs After Reeves Budget, PMI Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/one-in-four-uk-firms-cut-jobs-after-reeves-tax-rise-pmi-showsBloomberg Number of UK Retailers in Distress Surge 25% in Fourth Quarter
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-27/number-of-uk-retailers-in-distress-surge-25-in-fourth-quarterUK Independent Tax and pay hikes to see UK firms pay £2,300 more per low-wage worker in 2025
https://www.the-independent.com/news/uk/home-news/tax-ni-pay-wages-businesses-b2672875.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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China's Banking System is Silently Crashing
6 januari 2025 · 24 min
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Lees meer
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The Dollar's EXPLODING: Here's What It's Rapid Rise Means for Global Markets
6 januari 2025 · 24 min
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Lees meer
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A Global Financial Reset? The Shocking Market Changes You Missed
3 januari 2025 · 19 min
Something big happened in late November, impacting markets all around the world. Responsible for the crash in currencies, the collapse in some interest rates, maybe even some modest upset over in the stock market. We have a number of clues to go off, a few suspects to analyze. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/trump-vows-an-additional-10percent-tariff-on-china-25percent-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico.htmlTruth Social
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Stock Market Is Diverging—Is This the Beginning of a Crash?
1 januari 2025 · 17 min
There are huge numbers being thrown around the stock market. Normally you can just ignore them since share prices go up almost no matter what. But these imbalances are now too big to simply dismiss and key sectors in the equity market aren't buying them. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WSJ Stocks on Pace for Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-on-pace-for-best-two-years-in-a-quarter-century-c5b5f9b3NYT Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead After Another Bumper Year for Stocks
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/business/stock-market-2025-predictions.htmlMotley Fool Prediction: The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Bubble Will Burst in 2025. Here's Why.
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/30123360/prediction-the-artificial-intelligence-ai-bubble-will-burst-in-2025-heres-whyECB Financial Stability Review November 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Breaking: The Car Market Bubble Is COLLAPSING
31 december 2024 · 20 min
A plunge in Chicago kicks off more concerns over the global car business. Layoffs and plant closures keep coming as automakers are having enormous difficulties first aligning their businesses with the lack of recovery. On top of that, more indications beside Chicago pour in showing falling cyclical demand for cars, too. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters Europe's embattled auto sector plans plant closures and layoffs
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/europes-embattled-auto-sector-plans-plant-closures-layoffs-2024-12-02/InsideEVs Honda's CEO Struggles To Explain Why Nissan Merger Makes Sense
https://insideevs.com/news/745625/honda-nissan-merger-struggling-reason/Japan trade
https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st_e/2024/2024115e.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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How the Dollar is Sparking a Hidden Global Crisis
29 december 2024 · 23 min
The biggest surprise of 2024 wasn't any election results nor was it the fact central banks worldwide are more desperately accelerating rate cuts as the year draws to close. Or that other governments and officials are resorting to increasing panicky measures to calm markets in their areas. What caught everyone so off guard about '24 was the one outcome that stands behind all of those things. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
IMF WEO January 2024
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU