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India's Rupee Is TANKING, Here's How This Impacts the World
28 december 2024 · 29 min
After facing a major setback, the Reserve Bank of India has ditched its longshot desperation tactic aimed at 'speculators' betting against the rupee. They aren't the problem, the fundamentals are - global fundamentals. There is a lot INR has to say about those as it becomes the latest to plunge. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Business Standard RBI dials down use of NDFs to fight dollar, balance rupee stability
https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/rbi-dials-down-use-of-ndfs-to-fight-dollar-balance-rupee-stability-124121800613_1.htmlBusiness Standard RBI asks some lenders to reduce speculative positions against rupee
https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/reserve-bank-asks-some-lenders-to-cut-speculative-bets-against-rupee-124112200628_1.htmlBusiness Standard Rupee falls to new low of 85.27 as importers stock up dollar at month end
https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/rupee-falls-to-new-low-of-85-27-as-importers-stock-up-dollar-at-month-end-124122600861_1.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Jobs Have STOPPED Hiring, But Why?
27 december 2024 · 19 min
More indications of substantial problems for American workers - they can't find any jobs. But why? Moreover, what will it take to get this major hiring freeze to thaw? It isn't rate cuts or lower rates. Nor does it appear the election has worked, either. Consumers plunged back into fears over jobs and incomes in December. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NBC News From 'Great Resignation' to 'Great Detachment': How the U.S. job market has slowed
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/hard-to-find-a-job-get-hired-why-november-2024-jobs-report-rcna183102Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Pulled Back in December
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Global Bonds Are MOVING: Here’s What Central Banks Don’t Want You to Know
25 december 2024 · 20 min
Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRBNY Term Premia calculations
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactiveBloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Chinese Bonds Are CRASHING, What It Means for the Economy
24 december 2024 · 20 min
LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdings
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/chinese-regulator-asks-insurers-to-report-vanke-debt-holdingshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Grim Warning to America: Jobs Have Completely Stopped Hiring
23 december 2024 · 19 min
According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Brazil is COLLAPSING and it's Spreading to the Rest of the World
22 december 2024 · 20 min
There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/brazil-central-bank-rejects-doubts-over-monetary-policyBloomberg Brazil Traders ‘Sell First, Ask Later’ as Panic Hits Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/brazil-traders-sell-first-ask-later-as-panic-sweeps-marketsFT Warren Buffett's record cash pile is starting to make people nervous
https://financialpost.com/financial-times/warren-buffett-cash-pile-investors-nervousBloomberg Brazil Finance Chief Says Real May Be Under ‘Speculative Attack’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/brazil-finance-chief-says-real-may-be-under-speculative-attackBloomberg Brazil Spends $17 Billion in Reserves to Lift Cratering Real
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/central-bank-burns-17-billion-in-reserves-to-lift-brazil-s-realBloomberg Brazil’s Wealthy Lament Political Dysfunction as Fortunes Tumble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/brazil-s-richest-people-lament-political-dysfunction-as-fortunes-tumblehttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
OH SH*T: A Global Currency Crisis Has Begun
20 december 2024 · 21 min
While everyone is hanging on the Fed and the FOMC's indecision about how many rate cuts next year, there are currency crises - plural - beginning to break out in key places. One of those is Brazil where it has gotten so dangerous the country's central bank is now regularly intervening in FX spot markets. What's really going on here? The black hole is angry. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SH*T! Shocking Fed Decision: Here's What You Need to Know
19 december 2024 · 31 min
Stocks tanked, bond yields soared, the dollar jumped. All because the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do now? Partly, yeah. There's a lot more to the story, however. Given the tortuous road to rate cuts, it wasn't suddenly going to become smooth sailing now that they've started. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Governments Are Silently Collapsing Around the World Right Now
18 december 2024 · 18 min
Canada. France. Germany. What do they have in common? Central banks in each are cutting rates. Also, their governments have either collapsed or, Canada, about to. Why? Same reason there are rate cuts. It's not ideology nor really partisanship. It's the economy, stupid. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau, deals blow to government
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/canada-finance-minister-quits-after-clash-with-trudeau-deals-blow-to-government-.htmlToronto Sun Trudeau says economy is great, Canadians can see truth
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/trudeau-says-economy-is-great-canadians-can-see-truthBloomberg French Growth Prospects Slow as Political Uncertainty Weighs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-16/france-s-growth-prospects-weaken-as-political-uncertainty-weighs
CNBC France’s new prime minister gets a baptism of fire after surprise Moody’s downgrade
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/frances-new-prime-minister-installed-hours-before-moodys-downgrade.htmlNYT German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europe
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/europe/germany-confidence-vote-scholz-snap-election.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Global Bonds Are CRASHING, Here's What that Means for the World
17 december 2024 · 20 min
Interest rates worldwide are hanging at the edge of a cliff. It may not seem like it from the current focus on the Fed and the possible pause in its rate cutting. This doesn't mean other central bank rate cuts, either. Instead, two very critical signals have absolutely plunged just in the past few days. Record lows in both are far more relevant than Jay Powell. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Is India About To Make The Dollar Explode Higher?!
16 december 2024 · 20 min
The dollar continues to threaten to make a big move higher. Not only is the main dollar index right at the top end of its multi-year range, the buck is creating big problems for major currencies. The more other central banks or authorities struggle to contain the fallout, the greater the chance for that breakout. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
OH SH*T: Is the Treasury Market Signaling a Financial Crisis?!
15 december 2024 · 23 min
Update on T-bills. Last week's wild auctions repeated this week, only with flipped maturities. Other related data confirm the sharp demand as well as dealer participation in it. We discuss the implications plus dig into the reason why collateral is so important to begin with, and also why we don't know nearly enough about what's going on. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzawFRBNY Primary Dealer Statistics
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/counterparties/primary-dealers-statisticsIOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implications
https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD96.pdfOFR Why Is So Much Repo Not Centrally Cleared?
https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRBrief_23-01_Why-Is-So-Much-Repo-Not-Centrally-Cleared.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Swiss Central Bank Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World
14 december 2024 · 20 min
Swiss shock - again. Now fearing outright deflation and over the next six months, SNB pulls the trigger on a fifty. Back in March, amidst the "sticky" "inflation" freakout, when the SNB was the first central bank to begin cutting rates it was a warning to other central bankers and the rest of the world what was coming wasn't more "inflation." OPEC concurs. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzawSNB policy statement
https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20241212CNBC Swiss National Bank takes leap with 50-basis-point interest rate cut amid franc strength
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/swiss-national-bank-takes-leap-with-50-basis-point-interest-rate-cut-amid-franc-strength.htmlChair Jerome H. Powell
At the "Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices" sponsored by the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20190604a.htmBloomberg Franc Drop Seen Short-Lived With SNB Running Out of Room to Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-12/swiss-franc-falls-to-two-week-low-affter-half-point-snb-rate-cutBloomberg OPEC Makes Deepest Cut Yet to 2024 World Oil Demand Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/opec-makes-deepest-cut-yet-to-2024-world-oil-demand-forecastCNBC OPEC+ oil output delay a ‘reality check’ as group eyes demand, U.S. outlook, Saudi energy min says
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/06/opec-oil-output-delay-a-reality-check-as-group-eyes-demand-saudi.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China's Banking System Is Melting Down ALL At Once
12 december 2024 · 20 min
Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fiscal expansion. We'll go over what that is, how it is different from QE, and what the real takeaway is. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
China Daily Unconventional monetary steps eyed
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/11/WS6758cfcca310f1265a1d2293.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
BREAKING: Canada's Job Market is in BIG F@#KING TROUBLE
11 december 2024 · 19 min
Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with Canadian government bonds, not to mention the Fed and the Bank of Canada, we expect a lot of similarities in the real economy. This one is getting to be uncomfortably close. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml
Yahoo!finance Canada's interest rates will likely fall. Where will they end up?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-interest-rates-will-likely-fall-where-will-they-end-up-150459864.htmlCBC Jobless rate reaches 6.8% in November, highest since 2017, excluding pandemic
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-unemployment-november-1.7403156Bloomberg Canada Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.8%, Raising Odds of Big Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/canada-jobless-rate-jumps-to-6-8-raising-odds-of-big-cutFinancial Post Canada's unemployment rate rises to 6.8%, raising odds of jumbo interest rate cut
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-unemployment-rate-rises-to-6-8https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China Just Flipped After 14 Years – Here's How It Will Impact the World
10 december 2024 · 19 min
China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bode very well for the "bazooka." Global market reaction wasn't what Beijing was looking for, either. Even stocks and Economists. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml
SCMP China’s consumer inflation hits 5-month low, leaves room for more stimulus
https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3289917/chinas-consumer-inflation-falls-short-november-factory-price-drag-continuesBloomberg China Signals Bolder Stimulus for Next Year as Trump Returns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-shifts-monetary-policy-stance-for-first-time-since-2011https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
700,000 People Just Lost Their Job... What’s Next for the Economy?
9 december 2024 · 18 min
The BLS labor data had a chance to show that October's weakness really was just a combination of one-off factors, instead did everything to confirm that it wasn't those at all. That includes the headline payroll number, too. Unemployment is up and, when you properly account for everyone, up A LOT. Just like Canada. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
T BILL Carnage Begin: The First Sign of Financial Collapse
8 december 2024 · 21 min
Wild week for a market that's supposed to be boring and go unnoticed. For the second straight month, heavy buying in bills right ahead of the payroll report. Except, in this case, buyers went utterly crazy for the 8-week bill in one of the most incredible bill auctions. But what is all this mess about? Yen, securities lending, and recession. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Imports/Exports Data Reveal the Truth About the Global Economy
6 december 2024 · 56 min
Sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
How Does a Recession Actually Start?
5 december 2024 · 21 min
Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn't just end up being the difference between downturn and full-blown contraction, it also turns a recession into a depression. And we've got the data for it plus how 2024 fits into the pattern. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment
https://home.uchicago.edu/shimer/wp/reassess.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Hiring Crisis: What’s Really Happening to the Job Market?
4 december 2024 · 19 min
The Christmas shopping season is off to a poor start, with dim results coming in from various sources showing lower traffic and slower spending. The reason is easy enough to identify, starting with the latest labor report from the government. Hiring fell sharply before summer and never came back, all of that leading up to the holidays. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBloomberg Tally of US Shoppers Slipped During Key Holiday Weekend
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/tally-of-us-shoppers-slipped-during-key-holiday-weekendCSA Cyber Monday online sales hit new record of $13.3 billion
https://chainstoreage.com/cyber-monday-online-sales-hit-new-record-133-billionInvesting.com US JOLTs Job Openings Surpass Forecasts, Indicating Stronger Labor Market
https://za.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-jolts-job-openings-surpass-forecasts-indicating-stronger-labor-market-93CH-3450582Observer.com ‘Ghost Jobs’ Are on the Rise—And They Are Hurting More Than Just Job Hunters
https://observer.com/2024/06/ghost-job-rise-labor-data/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China Is TANKING and it's Spreading Quickly Around the World
3 december 2024 · 18 min
After a weekend of disappointing macro data (which was characterized as "mixed"), China's markets tanked. Not stocks, of course, instead more record lows in bonds plus a very sharp drop in CNY. As we know only too well, CNY DOWN = BAD and yuan is right back near multi-year lows. It's not the only one, either. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBloomberg China’s Factory Activity Expands in Sign of Slow Recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-30/china-s-factory-activity-continues-expansion-in-sign-of-recoveryBloomberg China’s 10-Year Yield Sinks to Record Low on Bets PBOC Will Ease
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/china-s-10-year-yield-is-heading-toward-record-2-on-easing-betsBloomberg China Skips Politburo Readout as Investors Await Stimulus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/china-skips-politburo-readout-as-investors-await-stimulus-cluesBloomberg China Home Sales Drop Again as Sustained Stimulus Effect Missing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-30/china-home-sales-drop-again-as-sustained-stimulus-effect-missinghttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
European Banks Are NOT Lending Anymore (Here's What That Means For The Global Economy)
2 december 2024 · 19 min
European banks have added a massive amount of government bonds to their holdings. At the same time, they refuse to lend into the real economy. Europe's depositories are hardly alone as we see the same defensive behavior all over the global system. There is only one reason why they all have become so incredibly defensive. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBlack Friday/Cyber Monday Sale at Eurodollar University
https://www.eurodollar.university/black-fridayhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
India is MASSIVELY Shorting The Dollar (Here’s What You Need To Know)
1 december 2024 · 18 min
India's RBI just recently has gone *massively* short the US dollar and in the NDF market, too, just to keep the crumbling rupee from sinking even more. This won't work exposing the central bank to losses and also potentially amplifying the downdraft in the currency. A big update on the fundamentals explains. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg India Plows Into NDF Market as It Fights Back Against Dollar
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-plows-into-ndf-market-as-it-fights-back-against-dollarBloomberg India’s Growth Shocker Puts Pressure on RBI to Cut Rates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-s-economic-growth-weakens-to-almost-two-year-lowBloomberg India’s Falling Wages Squeeze Urban Middle Class and Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-s-falling-wages-squeezes-urban-middle-class-and-economyBloomberg RBI Inquiries on Liquidity Spur Speculation of Action Next Week
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/rbi-inquiries-on-liquidity-spur-speculation-of-action-next-weekhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Kohl's Warns There's NO Holiday Shoppers
28 november 2024 · 18 min
An entire batch of corporate reports from retailers to computer-makers, just in time for the key holiday season's critical moment. Each one warning that consumers in the US just aren't there, being held back. Why? The government also reported today with the answer to that question, the one factor that ties it all together. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Inflation-Battered Consumers Are Going to Extreme Lengths to Nab Holiday Deals
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/black-friday-deals-in-us-have-been-transformed-by-inflationBloomberg Kohl’s Troubles Deepen as Retailers Call Out Weak Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/kohl-s-cuts-sales-outlook-on-weaker-spending-on-clothes-shoesCNBC Retailers saw a dismal fall quarter.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/consumers-retailers-post-election-economic-outlook-rcna181794CNBC HP forecasts first-quarter profit below estimates on sluggish demand in PC market
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/hp-earnings-report-q4-2024.htmlBloomberg Dell and HP Inc. Fall After Reporting Disappointing PC Sales
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/dell-reports-sales-that-miss-estimates-on-setback-for-pc-markethttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Yen Carry Trade Is BACK (Here’s What You Need to Know)
27 november 2024 · 20 min
Japan's yen has diverged from other currencies over the past few weeks, strengthening against the dollar. That suggests more carry trading dynamics, an interplay between different versions of them. Yes, there is more than one carry trade and understanding the distinctions is key to getting a sense of possible vulnerabilities here. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlReuters Explainer: What are Japan's tactics based on latest suspected intervention?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/what-are-japans-tactics-based-latest-suspected-intervention-2024-07-18BIS Bulletin The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024
https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Copper-to-Gold Ratio Hits Financial Crisis Levels: What It Means for the Economy
26 november 2024 · 19 min
Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn't seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn't that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues about a progression. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Is the Bond Carnage Over?!
25 november 2024 · 17 min
Is the bond selloff over? What caused it in the first place? With European rates, in particular, heading lower on recession (more than) risks, the tendency of Treasuries to converge with them raises the chances yields may not have much farther to go if they aren't topped out already. Given the fundamental background, it appears to be a matter of time more than anything. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Europe's Recession is Rapidly Getting Worse (Here's Why)
24 november 2024 · 21 min
The European situation is getting to be truly serious. And that means growing problems for...the dollar. Not the exchange value against other currencies, rather why that exchange value is rising and how trouble in Europe means trouble in global money. European banks have been back in a big way at the black hole's center. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
President Ford Economic Report to Congress 1975
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sites/default/files/books/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/the-economic-report-of-the-president-truman-1947-obama-2017/1975.pdfECB Financial Stability Review
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/ecb.fsr202411~dd60fc02c3.en.pdfECB Euro area banks as intermediators of US dollar liquidity via repo and FX swap markets
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/focus/2024/html/ecb.fsrbox202411_04~9a4d04b582.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China Dumping Record Amounts of Treasures (What They Aren’t Telling You)
22 november 2024 · 28 min
China and Japan selling record amounts of Treasuries. Do they hate the dollar? Donald Trump? You and me? Not only will we answer the questions, while those countries saw huge selling of USTs, curiously the Cayman Islands got a truly massive deposit of them and it showed up during July, August and September. Seems very carry trade-y. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Breaking Report Reveals the Labor Market is TANKING
21 november 2024 · 17 min
A double whammy on US consumers. First, the government issued an alarming update to the biggest jobs data there is. Then retail giant Target stunned with its Q3 results and more so its guidance for Q4. The thing is, both of those are related; two sides of the macro coin. The one says the summer started really badly, the other it didn't get better. Lees meer
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Reuters Target raises 2024 profit forecast as price cuts draw shoppers
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/target-raises-annual-profit-forecast-after-price-cuts-boost-quarterly-sales-2024-08-21/CNBC Target shares plunge 20% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/target-tgt-q3-2024-earnings.htmlBloomberg Target Shares Tumble After Retailer Cuts Profit Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-20/target-tgt-trims-profit-outlook-on-inventory-buildup-higher-costsCNN As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmart
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/investing/walmart-stock-earnings/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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This Chart Explains Why Warren Buffett Is Panic Selling
20 november 2024 · 18 min
Warren Buffett continues to sell tens of billions worth of stocks. Everyone wants to know why. This divergence between major stock index most likely holds the answer. Normally stock indexes don't mean much beyond their beauty, yet they can be important signals at times like now when they do diverge in such an obvious and sustained way. This is a key cyclical one, too. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybacks
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/02/berkshire-hathaways-cash-fortress-tops-300-billion-as-buffett-sells-more-stock-freezes-buybacks.htmlFranklin-Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/equity-markets/the-foundry-quandary-owning-semis-late-in-the-cycleDeloitte Industry Outlook
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/semiconductor-industry-outlook.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Default Rates on Household Loans are SKYROCKETING
19 november 2024 · 20 min
The Federal Reserve reported a sharp rise in delinquencies, especially credit cards and auto loans. That wasn't all, as the New York branches also showed record high rejections strongly indicating where things really stand in the credit cycle. As a result, we have to pay some attention to CRTs, otherwise known as SRTs, the latest financial engineering akin to the 2020s version of credit default swaps. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRBNY Household Debt and Credit Report Q3 2024
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.htmlBloomberg Ally Auto Borrowers With 2022 Loans Now Struggling, CFO Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/ally-auto-borrowers-with-2022-loans-now-struggling-cfo-saysBloomberg Ally’s Charge-Offs, Bad-Loan Provisions Beat Expectations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/auto-lender-ally-reports-stronger-than-expected-debt-managementFederal Reserve Frequently Asked Questions about Regulation Q
https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/legalinterpretations/reg-q-frequently-asked-questions.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Auto Parts Industry Warns Consumer Behavior Is Changing RAPIDLY
18 november 2024 · 19 min
Another retailer finds out the 2021 "recovery" was mostly an illusion. Prices may have soared and revenues looking good, it didn't last because it couldn't. As the company closes hundreds of stores and prepares to lay off an unknown number of workers, more stats show this is no isolated case. The cycle continues and continues to take its toll on businesses and workers alike. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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The Most Important Global Indicator Is SKYROCKETING
17 november 2024 · 19 min
The yen and the euro are good currency indicators of global monetary conditions, but there are a couple even better and more consistent signals. When the 'dollar' goes up and these two are taking the hit because of it, that's when you really need to pay attention. It's not Trump, Jay Powell, interest rates or just random chance. Lees meer
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The Dollar is SOARING Higher, Is the World Crashing?
15 november 2024 · 18 min
The dollar index jumped to a more than two-year high leaving everyone to ask why. Some say Trump, others the Fed. They might as well have said it was Burger King (who blames Wendy's). Though the dollar is rising here in the short run, to really understand what's going on you have to consider more than just developments in November 2024. This has been in the works for several years. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters US dollar continues uptrend as Fed policy provides lift
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-over-two-month-high-yen-near-150dlr-2024-10-15/Bloomberg Wall Street Sees Dollar Soaring More, But Splits on How Much
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/dollar-s-trump-fueled-rally-unites-wall-street-on-bullish-betshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Germany Just Issued A Major Warning to the Global Economy
14 november 2024 · 19 min
After Germany's governing coalition collapsed last week, the country's ZEW added more solid evidence about why that was. The ZEW also collapsed into November. That's not just about Germany since the "zoo" is really what the rest of the world looks like from the German perspective. That also has a lot to say about the ongoing Treasury selloff (just like April). Lees meer
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ZEW November 2024
https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/falling-economic-expectations-after-trump-victoryBloomberg German Investor Confidence Slumps on Political Strife, Trump Win
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/german-investor-confidence-slumps-on-political-strife-trump-winhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Is the Economy on the Brink of Another 2001-Style Crash
13 november 2024 · 35 min
The economic challenges the incoming Trump administration is facing are far and away greater than those confronted in 2016. From the cyclical standpoint, 2024 has far more in common with 2001. While structurally, there's nothing close to this in generations. Amidst the election euphoria there needs to be sober analysis. Lees meer
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HOLY SH*T: SURGE in Repo Fails + Swap Spreads Plunging
12 november 2024 · 20 min
Repo fails jumped by 50% in the latest weekly data, which just so happens to be the same week swap spreads plunged to record lows. It was also when the US economy, at least its labor data, took a turn for the worse. Understanding the connections between all these money and macro indications is critical. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Financial Times New York Fed examines banks’ role in money market turmoil
https://www.ft.com/content/83a5bb70-dbca-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Transcript October 2019
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20191030.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Consumers are Now Terrified About the Economy
11 november 2024 · 19 min
Credit card usage isn't really about spending. Americans use their credit cards when they're confident about jobs and incomes. The latest data from the Fed contains a more serious warning especially how it lines up with jobs and income data...and the Fed's actions. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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China's 10 TRILLION in Stimulus Is Failing Massively, Here's why
10 november 2024 · 19 min
Is there era of massive government "stimulus" finally over? Bonds are certain it is. The Chinese are doing their best to make sure that's the result, in large part because they don't know what to do. That much is becoming clear and the implications are already going global. Just ask anyone with oil. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-unveils-839-billion-debt-swap-to-rescue-local-governmentsBloomberg China Debt Plan Underwhelms Bond Market Betting on More Stimulus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-bond-market-eyes-fiscal-plans-from-key-legislative-meetinghttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Germany is PLUNGING and it’s Spreading to the Rest of the World
8 november 2024 · 18 min
Germany's government is the latest casualty of the "vibecession." Amid a flurry of political activity, the markets throw up another major warning with the first ever negative swap spread. Predictably, the mainstream media can't make sense of swaps, the situation, or the economics. It's the economy, stupid. Lees meer
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Bloomberg Germany’s Government Puts Itself Out of Its Misery
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/germany-s-coalition-government-puts-itself-out-of-its-miseryBloomberg Fear of German Debt Binge Flips Key Market Gauge for First Time
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/fear-of-german-debt-binge-flips-key-market-gauge-for-first-timeBloomberg Scholz Sees Germany Riding Out War in Ukraine Without Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-17/german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-on-2023-economic-outlook-war-in-ukrainehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Single Most Important Indicator in Global Finance is FREAKING OUT
7 november 2024 · 20 min
Huge moves, major negatives, and record declines for one of the most critical pieces of the entire global system. While election euphoria has gripped certain financial markets, this one is doing the opposite. It is a key warning about where everything stands before even considering whether or not Trump's victory changes anything. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Demand For Oil is TANKING, this is a MAJOR Warning to the Economy
6 november 2024 · 18 min
Demand for gasoil, the basic fuel which runs the entire modern world, is actually declining. Having stumbled over the summer, this exceptionally rare development is another really negative sign to go with, relatedly, even more production and job cuts across the auto industry. Energy, autos, economy. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Diesel Set For Growing Glut as Demand Falters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/diesel-set-for-growing-glut-as-demand-faltersWorld Bank Commodity Markets Outlook
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/bbda9ad3-4f12-4626-ad4b-94a4d20fbd52/contentBloomberg OPEC Cuts Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for Third Consecutive Month
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-14/opec-cuts-global-oil-demand-growth-forecasts-for-third-consecutive-monthOPEC June 2
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7339.htmOPEC Sept 5
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7369.htmOPEC Nov 3
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7409.htmBloomberg Even Some High-Income Americans Can’t Afford New Cars Anymore
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-04/soaring-2024-new-car-prices-turn-more-buyers-toward-used-vehiclesNikkei Nissan cutting production of main U.S. models by 30%
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Nissan-cutting-production-of-main-U.S.-models-by-30Guru Focus Nissan Cuts Production Amid Declining U.S. Demand, Threatening Global Sales Goals
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2582356/nissan-cuts-production-amid-declining-us-demand-threatening-global-sales-goalsEuroNews Thousands of jobs to go at German car parts maker Schaeffler
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/11/05/thousands-of-jobs-to-go-at-german-car-parts-maker-schaefflerhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Yield Curve is Signaling a Major Warning – Here’s What You Need to Know
5 november 2024 · 18 min
Why are interest rates rising at one end of the yield at the same time falling on the opposite side? With more recession data coming in all the time, starting with payrolls, it seems as though there should be a uniform response from the marketplace. But that's not how steepening works. Lees meer
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Washington Post
House Passes Bush Tax Cut
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/03/09/house-passes-bush-tax-cut/99152799-f156-414f-82c4-bed4fca05bb3/Time ‘The Worst Is Over’
https://time.com/archive/6917914/the-worst-is-over/https://www.eurodollar.university
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New Data Suggest Interest Rates Could Explode Lower
4 november 2024 · 18 min
October payrolls were exceptionally weak, yet LT rates jump? With more rate cuts from the Fed basically assured, questions swirl around the Treasury selloff having many people wondering if there is a 'Trump trade' going on here. The answers are right there in front of us. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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The Job Market is in BIG F@#KING TROUBLE
3 november 2024 · 18 min
This isn't about October or hurricanes. Government just confirmed jobs market is in big f-ing trouble. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS Employment Situation October 2024
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.pdfCNN Messy October jobs report muddied by strikes and storms ahead of Election Day
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-october-11-01-24/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Holy Sh*t! This Was the Final Straw in the Job Market
1 november 2024 · 21 min
The government's latest data confirms the dramatic slowdown sweeping across the labor market. We've been documenting hours being cut, quitters quitting quits, no one hiring, and now even a few layoffs. Not only do the latest figures back all that up, they also help explain consumer behavior and even the last GDP estimate. Lees meer
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CNBC Ford guides to low end of 2024 earnings forecast as it slightly tops Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/ford-motor-f-earnings-q3-2024.htmlFord Q3
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2024/10/28/third-quarter-2024-financial-results.htmlChallenger Gray & Christmas October 2024
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-in-october-2024-but-ytd-up-4-from-last-year/https://www.eurodollar.university
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Is This The REAL Cause of the Shocking GDP Report?!
31 oktober 2024 · 18 min
Another seemingly solid US GDP report for the books thanks in large part to a huge allotment of missiles. Does this mean the soft landing has been achieved? Even if it has been achieved, we wouldn't know it from GDP data. Instead, history shows cyclical changes all look decent just before them. The latest quarterly data is not just comparable, it is, surprisingly, worse than every other period entering recession. Lees meer
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Collateral Shortage Hits Repo Market – What You Need to Know
29 oktober 2024 · 19 min
Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such a solid fit for it? The answer lies in the carry trade and what it means for funding markets as well as US recession risks. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Mizuho Buys ‘Safe’ Assets on Risk That US Soft Landing Fails
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/mizuho-buys-safe-assets-to-cut-damage-if-us-soft-landing-failshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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