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The AI Bubble is COLLAPSING in South Korea, The World is Next...
28 oktober 2024 · 19 min
Some unexpected bad news out of South Korea has implications for AI and a lot more. The investment boom triggered by ChatGPT has been a critical support for especially the Asian economy. Now there are signs it is cooling off along with a further setback in autos. Inopportune timing, to say the least. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg South Korea’s Economy Ekes Out Growth as BOK Assesses Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/south-korea-s-economy-ekes-out-growth-to-emerge-from-contractionhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Here's What Actually Makes the Price of Gold Go Up
27 oktober 2024 · 18 min
Gold continues to soar to record highs, but why? Most will say inflation though bullion is actually a terrible inflation hedge. The reason why many people believe this is the one time during the Great Inflation. Gold's run in the seventies was instead about what happened in the sixties long before the inflation. And it's the same thing - the other end of it - that we're seeing today. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRB Boston Bretton Woods Conference 1984
https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/conference/28/conf28.pdfAlan Greenspan Testimony Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives July 24, 1998
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Fed Just Revealed What They Really Think of the Economy
25 oktober 2024 · 18 min
A lot of people are asking if the Fed now regrets cutting rates by 50 bps in September, or maybe cutting at all. Recent data make it seem as though the soft landing never went anywhere, plus what appears to be happening with market interest rates. In truth, every part of this Fed "regret" trend is wrong, starting with the view from the central bank itself. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Federal Reserve Beige Books
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htmFOMC Chair Powell Press Conference September 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240918.pdfBloomberg Fed’s Beige Book Shows Little Growth Across Most of US
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/fed-s-beige-book-shows-little-economic-growth-across-most-of-ushttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Systemically Important Central Bank Shocks Markets with 50 bps Rate Cut
24 oktober 2024 · 18 min
Another central bank moves up its rate cut plans, accelerating its rate reductions with a 50-bps cut. At the same time the IMF lowers growth projections and warns risks of more downside are rising. These two developments are related to the same thing. It's becoming clearer where this weakness is coming from and that's why the public sector is starting to become more aggressive. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bank of Canada October 2024 Monetary Policy Report
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/mpr-2024-10-23.pdfBloomberg IMF Lowers Global Growth Forecast, Warns of Increasing Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/imf-lowers-global-growth-forecast-warns-of-increasing-risksIMF WEO October 2024 Policy Pivot, Rising Threats
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Q&A Live Replay: Banks, Bullion, Rates and Regrets
23 oktober 2024 · 56 min
Huge thanks to Eric Basmajian and train-traveler Mike Green for answering member questions. Member/Subscriber Live Q&A recorded October 22, 2024.
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The Real Debt Crisis Is Here – And No One Noticed
22 oktober 2024 · 20 min
We are seeing the full effects of the debt crisis paradox. And it only seems like a "paradox" from hte perspective of conventional wisdom on the matter. Government debt is indeed bad for the economy, but not AT ALL in the way most people are led to believe or assume. This creates another paradox, one where that mainstream criticism does a lot to discredit all criticism thereby making even more debt likely. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Milton Friedman Newsweek February 1981
https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214251/fullhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Global Central Banks Just Panicked (heres what you need to know)
21 oktober 2024 · 18 min
Does the Bank of Canada need to exist? Canada shares a lot more than just a common border with the US, interest rates, inflation, even changes in economic output. And those are all pointing in the wrong direction. The Canadian experience provides a perfect example of what globally synchronized really means in all its facets. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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This Was the Final Straw to the Global Economy!
20 oktober 2024 · 18 min
This may end up being the final straw for what's left of the global economy. With more highly negative signals from copper, gold, oil and swaps, even bond spreads here, we're getting more impressions that the part rolling recession is now rolling right on into the full thing. If this one goes, that's usually it. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Carmaker Misery Is Dragging Down Global Credit Market Returns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-16/carmaker-misery-is-dragging-down-global-credit-market-returnsBloomberg Rolling Manufacturing Recession Collides With US Election Angst
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-18/us-manufacturers-face-layoffs-weak-results-ahead-of-trump-harris-electionhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
BREAKING: 80% of Americans Are Broke and No One’s Talking About It!
18 oktober 2024 · 18 min
A whopping 98% of American voters in one mainstream poll say the economy is a major concern, including 79% who rate it their top worry. Economists, the media, politicians, policymakers are at a loss to explain this. The latest data from the US government shows why that is, both the confusion and the underlying trouble. A vast majority of the evidence continues to consistently agree with what Americans are saying. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NRF Census Retail Sales Data Shows Retail Sales Grew in September
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/census-retail-sales-data-shows-retail-sales-grew-septemberNRF CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Shows Retail Sales Declined Monthly in September But Still Grew Year Over Year
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc/nrf-retail-monitor-shows-retail-sales-declined-monthly-septemberAP NORC
https://apnorc.org/projects/the-economy-tops-voters-minds-as-they-consider-their-vote-in-the-upcoming-election/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Worldwide Demand Nosedives 50% for Vital Economic Goods
17 oktober 2024 · 20 min
Wall Street was rocked by a huge plunge in orders for ASML, a company which produces machines that touch practically every part of the global economy. That was followed by another four-letter firm, LVMH, which reported a shock decline in revenue. Both showing the same thing from very different angles, further confirming - along with swap markets - why there will be another leg down in interest rates. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ASML Home
https://www.asml.com/enASML Q4 2023 Results
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/q4-2023-financial-resultsASML Q3 2024 Results
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/q3-2024-financial-results-dd3ac76a9d4d0f8cIntel Q2 2024 Financial Results
https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1704/intel-reports-second-quarter-2024-financial-resultsLVMH Q3 2024 Results
https://www.lvmh.com/en/publications/lvmh-shows-good-resilience-in-the-current-contextNYT Shares of Louis Vuitton Owner Drop on Anxiety About Chinese Shoppers
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/business/dealbook/lvmh-dior-louis-vuitton-china.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY Sh*t: Bank Earnings are Out Showing MASSIVE Loan Losses
16 oktober 2024 · 19 min
We are in the thick of bank earnings and quarterly reports. The one theme they keep coming back to is...losses. It's become such a problem even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon snapped during his last earnings call. The thing is, in spouting off he told the truth about all of it. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Jamie Dimon Is Right. Forget the ‘Damn Number.’
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-14/jamie-dimon-is-right-analysts-need-to-look-beyond-their-modelsBank of America Quarterly Earnings
https://investor.bankofamerica.com/quarterly-earningsJPM Third Quarter 2024 Results
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/3rd-quarter/66269bb6-ecc5-4172-b461-6b7e7cd47aab.pdfCitigroup Third Quarter 2024 Results
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Earnings/Q32024/2024pr-qtr3rslt.pdfBloomberg Consumers Shift Spending to Pay for Basic Staples, Citi CFO Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/consumers-shift-spending-to-pay-for-basic-staples-citi-cfo-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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China is Spiraling Out of Control (Everything You Need to Know)
15 oktober 2024 · 19 min
Another update from top Chinese officials on the status of "stimulus" comes amidst a flurry of macro and banking data from the country. While many will claim the former cancels out the increasingly grim nature of the latter, the previous data still matters at the very least to describe the size of the hole China will have to climb out of. Assuming it is even making a reasonable attempt to. That last press gathering provided few assurances. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
China NBS Consumer Prices September 2024
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202410/t20241013_1956899.htmlCNBC China’s Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/14/chinas-ministry-of-finance-tackles-debt-problems-before-economic-challenges.htmlCaixin Exclusive: China May Add 6 Trillion Yuan in Treasury Bonds to Buttress Economy
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2024-10-14/exclusive-china-may-issue-6-trillion-yuan-in-treasury-bonds-to-buttress-economy-102245341.htmlReuters China's exports miss forecasts as lone bright spot fades
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-sept-export-growth-hits-5-month-low-global-demand-cools-2024-10-14/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Jobless Claims Are About to Skyrocket
14 oktober 2024 · 19 min
A big jump in jobless claims actually muddies the picture for the labor market. Meanwhile, consumer prices that many in the mainstream are claiming as sticky...are. But not for the reasons stated. We're seeing "sticky" prices in the technical sense, and that's not good. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Odd Lots Austan Goolsbee Explains the Fed’s Big Rate Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/austan-goolsbee-explains-the-fed-s-big-rate-cutAtlanta Fed Sticky Price CPI
https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/https://www.eurodollar.university
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India is PLUNGING and it’s Spreading to the Rest of the World
14 oktober 2024 · 18 min
The world’s major growth engine the past few years is showing more and worsening signs of finally cracking, including its currency hitting a record low just today. I’m not talking about the US, obviously, nor is it sickly China. India. If India has stumbled, too, as the rupee suggests, then there might be no escaping globally synchronized. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg India’s Industrial Output Declines For First Time in Two Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/india-s-industrial-output-declines-for-first-time-in-two-years?srnd=phx-economics-v2S&P Global
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/india-forward/indias-growing-role-in-the-global-economyHSBC India Total sales growth softens as export gains diminish
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8b2aeb7799e44b899c2651b5732e0878https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
BREAKING: Repo Data Exposes Major Trouble in the Banking System
11 oktober 2024 · 32 min
There is a story brewing in repo. Fails have broken a long run trend and they did it in early August. Latest data from FRBNY says that's still the case. It fits with a bunch of other data as well as brings up the ongoing unwind in the real yen carry trade. Finally, behind all of it is US recession fears driving fails, collateral, Japan's withdrawal, and more. And you don't have to take my word for it; hear it (or read it) straight from a carry trader himself. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Mizuho Buys ‘Safe’ Assets on Risk That US Soft Landing Fails
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/mizuho-buys-safe-assets-to-cut-damage-if-us-soft-landing-fails?srnd=phx-economics-v2https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China is Bailing Out Their ENTIRE Banking System
10 oktober 2024 · 21 min
While everyone - especially in Chinese and China-related stocks - get caught up in last month's "stimulus" frenzy, the overlooked the only real news that came out of it. Very quietly, the country's top bank regulator just casually mentioned the government was gathering a trillion yuan to "recapitalize" China's biggest six banks. Yeah. Meanwhile, volatility has hit the previously insane equity surge. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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https://www.eurodollar.universityBloomberg China to Add Capital at Big Banks for First Time in a Decade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-24/china-to-boost-capital-at-mega-banks-for-first-time-in-a-decadeSCMP China weighs injecting US$142 billion of capital into top banks
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3280008/china-weighs-injecting-us142-billion-capital-top-banksNikkei Asia China's state banks report more bad loans to hotels, restaurants and stores
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/China-s-state-banks-report-more-bad-loans-to-hotels-restaurants-and-storesBloomberg China Markets Warn Xi That More Stimulus Is Needed to Fuel Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/china-markets-warn-xi-that-more-stimulus-is-needed-to-fuel-rallyTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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Credit Card Shutdowns Begin: The First Sign of Economic Collapse
9 oktober 2024 · 19 min
Another recession warning and this one is related to brewing problems with unemployment. The September payroll report has put mainstream focus back on a soft- or no-landing scenario, but we've been there before not long ago. Meanwhile, apart from the unreliable payroll figure everything else continues to point to bigger trouble, including Americans who have stopped using their credit cards. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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https://www.eurodollar.universityABC News Blockbuster jobs report flexes economic strength, defying Americans' lukewarm attitudes
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/blockbuster-jobs-report-flexes-economic-strength-defying-americans/story?id=108887637Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Flat in September 2024 from August; YTD Surpasses 2023
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-flat-in-september-2024-from-august-ytd-surpasses-2023/Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment
https://home.uchicago.edu/~shimer/wp/reassess.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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Japan is CRASHING and it’s Spreading to the Rest of the World
8 oktober 2024 · 18 min
US economic weakness continues to show up outside the country as much as inside (last payroll estimate notwithstanding). Japan's government leading indicator just tanked, lowest value since 2020 and pointing to growing trouble in Japan. Same from Mexico and even according to one by JP Morgan. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Ueda Hints at Dovishness After New Prime Minister Urges Caution
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ueda-hints-at-dovishness-after-new-prime-minister-urges-cautionS&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5cbff538ec56483b8e9a77ce7c1c252eJP Morgan Global Composite
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The "Profound" Impact of Rate Cuts Have BEGUN
7 oktober 2024 · 18 min
September's payroll estimate soared WAY above expectations. Is it a Fed miracle? This isn't the first time this has happened; in fact, each of the last two times the FOMC began cutting rates met eerily similar results. Steve and I talk about what those were and why, also why that means everything right now. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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https://www.eurodollar.universitySeptember 2024 Payroll Report
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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How Fed Rate Cuts Actually Affect Interest Rates (What to Expect)
6 oktober 2024 · 18 min
The bond rally is now one year old and it finally got to the point where central banks - including the Fed - are getting out of the way. Now that the market got what it "wants", there's no stopping it, right? Not quite. Nothing ever goes in a straight line, starting with policy pivots. The market will always surprise you. Lees meer
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https://www.eurodollar.universityEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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Phase 2 of the Global Recession has Begun
4 oktober 2024 · 20 min
There are several ways to know that the second phase for the global recession has started. While there is never a clear demarcation between any stages or just recession, for that matter, there are telltale signs and we are getting them bigtime. Summer keeps showing up as full of warnings, including one that explains everything from the economy to central bankers' increasingly panicking reaction to it. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg ECB Can’t Ignore Headwinds to Economic Growth, Schnabel Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ecb-can-t-ignore-headwinds-to-economic-growth-schnabel-saysBloomberg ECB Momentum for an October Rate Cut Is Looking Unstoppable
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ecb-momentum-for-an-october-rate-cut-is-looking-unstoppableBloomberg ECB Should Proceed Cautiously With Rate Cuts, Schnabel Warns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-30/ecb-should-proceed-cautiously-with-rate-cuts-schnabel-warnsNikkei Transcript: ECB board member Isabel Schnabel speaks with Nikkei
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Transcript-ECB-board-member-Isabel-Schnabel-speaks-with-NikkeiFT Lower borrowing costs risk ‘flare-up’ of inflation, warns ECB policymaker
https://www.ft.com/content/bdf3bb86-8a80-4bd5-b562-0c3c47f85f50https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
You Won't Believe What The Bank Of Japan Just Did
3 oktober 2024 · 19 min
The Bank of Japan's very recent change of heart has apparently been strong enough to do the same for incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Sounding aggressively hawkish where it came to interest rates just last week after his surprise ascent, suddenly he's completely changed his tune. Why? The answer can be found in another record low for a highly critical US$ market. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Ueda Keeps Rate Hikes in Play, Talks Down BOJ’s Part in Meltdown
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-23/boj-s-ueda-still-plans-to-hike-rates-if-economy-meets-outlookBloomberg Ueda Reiterates That BOJ Will Lift Rates If Outlook Realized
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-03/boj-ueda-reiterates-stance-of-lifting-rates-if-outlook-realizedThe New York Times Stocks in Japan Tumble After Party’s Election of New Prime Minister
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/29/business/japan-stocks-nikkei-shigeru-ishiba.htmlCNBC Here’s why Japan’s stocks are plunging after Shigeru Ishiba’s win
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/30/heres-why-japans-stocks-are-plunging-after-shigeru-ishibas-win.htmlBNN Bloomberg Ishiba Ally Sends Signal to Warn BOJ Against Rate Hike Too Soon
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/10/02/japans-ishiba-isnt-necessarily-pro-boj-hike-new-minister-says/Bloomberg Japan’s Ishiba Rules Out BOJ Interest Rate Hikes For Now
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/boj-s-ueda-briefs-new-pm-ishiba-on-market-developmentsBloomberg Ueda Hints at Dovishness After New Prime Minister Urges Caution
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ueda-hints-at-dovishness-after-new-prime-minister-urges-cautionhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Holy Sh*t! Jobs Have Completely Stopped Hiring
2 oktober 2024 · 19 min
Jay Powell again reiterated that he believes the economy is "on solid footing." The most recent data on the labor market shows he's either wrong or lying. There is no equivocating these latest estimates in which hiring has collapsed. As if that wasn't enough, it was backed up by other sources. All of it pointing to summertime being the time for recession. It's all about hiring, and that has all but disappeared. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Powell Says Fed Not in a Hurry, Will Lower Rates ‘Over Time’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-30/powell-says-fed-will-move-over-time-to-more-neutral-stanceBloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Sees ‘Many More’ Rate Cuts Over the Next Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/fed-s-goolsbee-sees-many-more-rate-cuts-over-the-next-yearCNN A sign of strength in the labor market: Job openings increased in August
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/01/economy/us-jolts-job-openings-layoffs-august/index.htmlISM September 2024 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/september/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Car Market Collapse Sends Major Warning to the Economy
1 oktober 2024 · 18 min
Car stocks got clobbered as the global auto industry is heading for a major fall. There was a flood of announcements from carmakers all over the world this weekend as carmakers are facing very difficult choices. The fallout from the growing reverse will be profound given how important a rising auto market had been up to now. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Stellantis Updates 2024 Financial Guidance
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/09/30/2954870/0/en/Stellantis-Updates-2024-Financial-Guidance.htmlBloomberg Stellantis Cuts Forecasts in Further Blow to Besieged Carmakers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-30/stellantis-cuts-2024-forecast-on-costs-for-us-global-slowdownDow Jones Aston Martin shares fall 25% after warning blamed on supply disruptions, China
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024093033/aston-martin-shares-fall-25-after-warning-blamed-on-supply-disruptions-chinaVolkswagen AG updates its forecast for the 2024 financial year
https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/ad-hoc/volkswagen-ag-updates-its-forecast-for-the-2024-financial-year-18698The Guardian Volkswagen has ‘a year, maybe two to turn around’, financial chief warns
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/04/volkswagen-has-a-year-maybe-two-to-turn-around-financial-chief-warnsBloomberg VW’s Second Profit Warning Exposes a Carmaker in Decline
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-30/volkswagen-s-second-profit-warning-exposes-a-carmaker-in-declinehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Is The Election Holding The Economy Back (Answer May Shock You)Now that everyone is coming to grips with economic weakness, particularly where it comes to employment conditions, understanding the high potential for a lot more or worse, people are trying t
30 september 2024 · 18 min
Now that everyone is coming to grips with economic weakness, particularly where it comes to employment conditions, understanding the high potential for a lot more or worse, people are trying to figure out where it is coming from therefore what might be done to turn it all around. Did the Fed break the economy? Are employers worried about the next President? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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People are Desperately Losing Hope in the Labor Market
30 september 2024 · 18 min
Americans continue to say they're alarmed about job prospects. That's what consumer confidence is truly about, not consumer spending. Workers see and understand labor market shifts before they show up in the major data sources. The latest income data show there is every reason to believe what consumers are seeing. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Conference Board September 2024
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Sep-2024FRBNY Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/09/consumer-confidence-a-useful-indicator-of-the-labor-market/FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/earnuncert-1https://www.eurodollar.university
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BREAKING: China Stimulus Changes Everything (Or Does it?)
27 september 2024 · 19 min
Not content to leave it with the PBOC's Oprah-fest of rate cutting, China's central authorities announced what's being called a massive stimulus push. The response has been near-euphoria in Chinese and other stocks, but the opposite in more crucial markets and places. All the more curious given how much other "stimulus" is being offered around the world, central bank rate cuts that are accelerating. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work.
https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202409/content_6976686.htmReuters Exclusive: China to issue $284 billion of sovereign debt this year to help revive economy
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-issue-284-bln-sovereign-debt-this-year-help-revive-economy-sources-say-2024-09-26/https://www.eurodollar.university
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Global Yield Curves Are Un-Inverting, Here's What You Need to Know
26 september 2024 · 18 min
It's not just USTs. Rates are falling all over the world faster in shorter maturities than long. That means a global wave of un-inversions and bull steepening right as more and more central banks plan to accelerate their own rate cutting. All of it for the same reason. Globally synchronized. Lees meer
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NBB Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve
https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/economicreview/2019/ecorevi2019_h4.pdfBloomberg Riksbank Cuts Rate Again and Opens Door to Half-Point Move
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-25/riksbank-cuts-rate-a-quarter-point-and-opens-door-to-bigger-move -
China Is Desperately Cutting Rates—is this the Start of a Global Crisis
25 september 2024 · 19 min
Chinese authorities held a surprise press conference early this morning where PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng did his best Oprah Winfrey impression handing out rate cuts to practically everyone. All that does is further expose the gravity of the situation: the more the central bank or any authority does, the worse you know it is since rate cuts never work. China just announced a lot of them. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China Unleashes Stimulus Package to Revive Economy, Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-24/china-frees-banks-to-lend-more-cuts-key-interest-ratehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Europe's Disaster Is About To Spread To The World
24 september 2024 · 18 min
More confirmation that recession is coming back with a vengeance in Europe. The latest data indicates the dangers this time around including jobs and layoffs. This situation in Europe is hardly unique. This is why central bankers are out in force downplaying their own rate cuts; to the point a few policymakers are outright lying why they voted for them. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Fed’s Waller Says Slowing Inflation Led Him to Support Large Rate Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-20/waller-says-slowing-inflation-led-him-to-support-large-rate-cutBloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Says Interest-Rate Hikes Not Entirely Ruled Out
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-28/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-hike-not-entirely-ruled-outBloomberg Fed’s Neel Kashkari Expects Two Quarter-Point Cuts Before Year’s End
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/neel-kashkari-backed-fed-s-large-cut-and-another-half-point-this-yearBloomberg Fed’s Bostic Says He Now Might Favor More Than One 2024 Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-23/fed-s-bostic-says-he-now-might-favor-more-than-one-cut-this-yearAtlanta Fed On the State of the US Economy and Monetary Policy
https://www.atlantafed.org/news/speeches/2024/09/23/bostic--on-the-state-of-the-us-economy-and-monetary-policyS&P Global S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI September 2024
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/35c60149cdbe461fb6bc3c959a58a551S&P Global/Hamburg Commercial Bank HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI September 2024
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cf25d7bb494046ae9256a00ca028f09ahttps://www.eurodollar.university
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OMG! You Won't Believe The New Jobs Data
23 september 2024 · 19 min
The Fed just cut its benchmark rate by 50-bps even though jobless claims are among the lowest in their history. At the same time, CPI shelter prices have accelerated. Neither seems like it would warrant the Fed action yet there are good reasons to believe true unemployment is very different from claims and current market rents are plunging. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Here's What Happens to the Stock Market After the Fed Cuts Rates
22 september 2024 · 19 min
FedEx's CEO admitted some truth about the Fed's rate cut this week, and the stock was immediately punished for it, dropping 15% on Friday. This raises a bunch of questions, starting with: what happens to stocks in general when the Fed cuts rates? The answer is not what you think. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC FedEx quarterly profit disappoints as demand for speedy delivery wanes
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/fedex-reports-drop-in-quarterly-earnings-on-lower-demand-for-priority-services.htmlRobert Shiller 2013 Nobel Speculative Asset Prices
https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/shiller-lecture.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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You Won't Believe How Global Central Banks Responded To The Feds Rate Cuts
20 september 2024 · 18 min
Now that the Fed has done it, everyone wants to get in on the act. They call it "undershooting" which is just a fancy word for "bonds were right." Switzerland, Canada, even the Europeans all thinking hefty and accelerated schedules. Leave it to the Brits to be the lone exception. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Bank of Canada Officials Split on Balance of Inflation Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-18/bank-of-canada-officials-are-split-on-balance-of-inflation-risksBloomberg Swiss Government Sees Sharp Drop in Inflation Rate Next Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/swiss-government-sees-sharp-drop-in-inflation-rate-next-yearBloomberg Swiss Economists See ‘Substantial’ Chance of SNB Half-Point Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/swiss-economists-see-sustantial-chance-of-snb-half-point-cutPolitico EU Portuguese bank chief: ECB may need to accelerate interest rate cuts
https://www.politico.eu/article/mario-centeno-ecb-may-need-accelerate-easing-interest-rate-date-bank-portugal/ZEW Hopes of a Recovery Are Fading
https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/hopes-of-a-recovery-are-fadingBloomberg Germany May Already Be in Mild Recession, Bundesbank Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/germany-may-already-be-in-mild-recession-bundesbank-saysEuronews US chip-maker Intel has announced plans to postpone the construction of a factory in Germany for at least two years.
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/09/17/intel-postpones-construction-of-german-chip-factory-for-two-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Profound Implications from Feds Rate Cut Decision
19 september 2024 · 20 min
The Fed cut its benchmark rates by 50 bps in a panicky move to catch up to both the economy and the marketplace. Reaction in the latter was muted because this wasn't unexpected. All the FOMC did was confirm everything - and then deny that it did. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Fed Minutes Show Officials Rally Around Higher-for-Longer Rates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/minutes-show-officials-rallying-around-higher-for-longer-ratesFOMC September statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240918a1.pdfFOMC September projections
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20240918.pdfFOMC June projections
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20240612.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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New Data Suggest Hiring Has NEVER Been this Bad
18 september 2024 · 17 min
People imagine a recession is when masses of people are being laid off and so consumer spending isn't just negative, it must be crashing. While those can happen in a downturn, they tend to show up at the end. So, if you're waiting for those to make a determination you'll be way too late. Evidence consistently and conclusively shows hiring not firing creates the recession environment that is marked by a drop in real spending. We have both. Lees meer
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Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment∗
https://home.uchicago.edu/~shimer/wp/reassess.pdfChallenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Announced by US-Based Companies Surge in August 2024; Hiring Falls to Lowest YTD Since Challenger Began Tracking in 2005
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-in-august-2024-hiring-falls-to-lowest-ytd-since-challenger-began-tracking-in-2005/NYT Layoffs Are Few. So Why Are Jobs Harder to Find?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/business/economy/layoffs-jobs-economy.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Americans Have Lost Hope in Their Economic Future
17 september 2024 · 20 min
Americans' hopes and dreams of better opportunities have utterly crashed and burned over the past five months. This isn't about more price increases, rather how those in the past have combined with recession prospects to rob the future. The 2020s have taken the worst aspect of the 2010s and added more trouble on top. Lees meer
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Larry Summers The Age of Secular Stagnation
https://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/Larry Summers IMF Accepting Secular Stagnation
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/larry-summers-on-secular-stagnationhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Interest Rate Cuts Are Here, Here's What You Need To Know
16 september 2024 · 18 min
Consumers can't afford groceries, so how is a lower reverse repo rate going to help them? Now that it is settled the Fed will cut rates next week, everyone wants to know by how much. The real story is what's behind the cuts in the first place and what that means for financial markets as well as the economy. It isn't the murder hornet rate. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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China's Economic Crisis Just Got a Whole Lot Worse
15 september 2024 · 20 min
Authorities in China continue to do everything they can to derail the country's globally synchronized bond rally. It continues to hit record low yields anyway in spite of increasingly desperate government efforts. But why? More ugly data on banks, incomes, and Chinese jobs shows bonds are right, and not just about what's already happened to this point. Lees meer
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China Xinhua Xi Jinping presided over a symposium on comprehensively promoting ecological protection...
https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202409/content_6974190.htmBloomberg Xi Urges Efforts to Hit 5% Growth Target Amid Rising Doubts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-12/xi-urges-efforts-to-hit-annual-growth-target-amid-rising-doubtBloomberg PBOC’s China Bonds See Trading Surge in Sign of Intervention
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/pboc-owned-china-bonds-see-trading-surge-in-sign-of-interventionBloomberg China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/china-s-deflationary-spiral-is-now-entering-dangerous-new-stagehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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You Won't Believe What Europe's Central Bank Just Did
13 september 2024 · 19 min
The ECB cut rates for the second time, as expected, though amidst a strong bond/bund market rally that has now completely un-inverted that yield curve. This comes at a time when major businesses like Volkswagen are thinking about closing down factories due to how much idle capacity they have. What links all of these together, what explains all the facts, is that there was never a global recovery, only a transitory price illusion. Lees meer
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Bloomberg Half-Empty Car Plants in Europe Spell Trouble for Workers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-11/vw-s-german-factory-closures-highlight-wider-problems-for-europe-s-carmakers?srnd=phx-economics-v2Volkswagen 2023 Annual Report Income Statement
https://annualreport2023.volkswagen-group.com/consolidated-financial-statements/income-statement.htmlVolkswagen 2019 Annual Report
https://annualreport2019.volkswagenag.com/ECB Press Conference Statement
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2024/html/ecb.is240912~4f7b17040c.en.htmlBloomberg ECB’s Economic Hopes at Risk as Consumers Put Spending on Ice
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/ecb-s-economic-hopes-at-risk-as-consumers-put-spending-on-iceStatista Half of OECD Countries Earn Less Now Than Pre-Pandemic
https://www.statista.com/chart/32831/real-wage-growth-in-the-oecd/OECD Employment Outlook 2024
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-employment-outlook-2024_ac8b3538-en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Bank Balance Sheet Reveals MASSIVE Systemic Stress
12 september 2024 · 19 min
It was all banks all day yesterday. Basel rules foul-up. Warren Buffett continuing to dump BofA. Citi dumping on credit. Deutsche unloading CRE, or trying to. JP Morgan downgrading...itself. Most of all Ally Financial admitting unemployment is fast becoming a big problem and right on its balance sheet. Lees meer
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Bloomberg JPMorgan Leads Banks in Dimming Outlooks, Spoiling Win on Rules
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/jpmorgan-leads-banks-in-dimming-outlooks-spoiling-win-on-rulesBloomberg Ally Drops After CFO Flags Consumer Stress, Underperformance
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/ally-drops-after-cfo-flags-consumer-stress-underperformanceBloomberg Consumers Shift Spending to Pay for Basic Staples, Citi CFO Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/consumers-shift-spending-to-pay-for-basic-staples-citi-cfo-saysFRBNY Household Debt and Credit Report
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlCNBC Berkshire unloads another chunk of Bank of America as CEO Moynihan lauds Buffett as great shareholder
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/11/berkshire-unloads-another-chunk-of-bank-of-america-as-ceo-moynihan-lauds-buffett-as-great-shareholder.htmlBloomberg Deutsche Bank Is Unloading $1 Billion in US Real Estate Loans
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-01/deutsche-bank-is-unloading-1-billion-in-us-real-estate-loanshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Interest Rates Are COLLAPSING Causing Panic Across Global Markets
11 september 2024 · 20 min
There's no September here as interest rates continue to plunge. The two-year UST is at a record low relative to the Fed. In the past when the two-year has dropped like this it has meant nothing good. Combined with the still ongoing crash in energy prices, we have a solid sense of what's coming next. And it isn't just a lot of rate cuts. Lees meer
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GO MUCH DEEPER AND STEP INTO THE BLACKHOLE OF MONEY AND MACRO.
NOW MORE THAN EVER.Bloomberg S&P 500 Rally Hits a Wall as Big Banks Sound Alarm: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updatesFOMC Transcript Conference Call January 3, 2001
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20010103ConfCall.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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China's Collapse Has Entered a Dangerous New Stage
10 september 2024 · 19 min
Interest rates continue to collapse in China even outpacing US Treasuries. Commodities are being crushed as prospects for the world's two largest economies are getting worse by the week; by the day. Over the weekend, the Chinese reported negatives in consumer and more so producer prices, adding more evidence to what is shaping up in bond markets and beyond as a looming deflation shock. Lees meer
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Bloomberg China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/china-s-deflationary-spiral-is-now-entering-dangerous-new-stageWall Street Journal Australian Economy Posts Weakest Growth Since Early 1990s
https://www.wsj.com/economy/australian-economy-posts-weakest-growth-since-early-1990s-a7f5d6b0?tpl=cbChina's NBS Consumer Prices August 2024
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202409/t20240909_1956311.htmlChina's NBS Producer/Factory Gate Prices August 2024
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202409/t20240909_1956310.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Did the Fed Accidentally Leak Their Next Move?!
9 september 2024 · 19 min
We know there are Fed rate cuts coming in September and that there is very good chance it will be 50 bps. Could policymakers also surprise by ending QT (not that it matters)? Might that be a first step toward the next QE? It's not as far-fetched as you may think; after all, some at the Fed were talking rate hikes just two months ago. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Fed’s Waller Says Jobs Data ‘Requires Action,’ Open to Big Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-06/fed-s-waller-says-jobs-data-requires-action-open-to-big-cut?https://www.eurodollar.university
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Everything Is Melting Down ALL At Once
8 september 2024 · 19 min
More meltdowns across key markets, starting with the Treasury curve rapidly unwinding. Commodities are getting crushed, gasoline absolutely smoked. Swaps. Yen. The August payroll report only further confirmed the reasons why all this is happening. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg OPEC+ Pauses Oil Supply Hike in Effort to Reverse Price Slump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/opec-has-deal-to-pause-planned-oil-hike-for-2-months-delegatehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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History Shows us this ALWAYS Ends Badly
6 september 2024 · 19 min
Politicians always feel the need to do something even if they don't know why or what's actually wrong. That's all "price controls" really are since they sure don't control anything like prices. Unknown to most people, the US has already experimented with them running price and wage restrictions for several years. The results are conclusive. Lees meer
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Robert Bleiberg Farewell to Wage and Price Controls
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/farewell-to-wage-and-price-controls-july-1974/Richard Nixon August 15, 1971 TV address
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_Xw5tWsOQo
https://www.cvce.eu/content/publication/1999/1/1/168eed17-f28b-487b-9cd2-6d668e42e63a/publishable_en.pdfArthur Burns Testimony before Congress Joint Economic Committee June 1971
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/burns/Burns_19710630.pdf?utm_source=direct_downloadArthur Burns Testimony before Congress Joint Economic Committee July 1971
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/burns/Burns_19710723.pdf?utm_source=direct_downloadNYT NIXON FREEZES PRICES FOR UP TO 60 DAYS, THEN WILL ESTABLISH PHASE 4 CONTROLS; FARM PRICES, WAGES, RENTS UNAFFECTED
https://www.nytimes.com/1973/06/14/archives/nixon-freezes-prices-for-up-to-60-da-ys-then-will-establish-phase-4.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Japan is PLUNGING and it’s Spreading to the Rest of the World
5 september 2024 · 18 min
Carry trade is back! In reality, it never left. Not because of BoJ rates hikes or threats, rather all the growing evidence the US isn't at risk of recession, so many indications showing it's here. Oil and gasoline are crashing. Curves unwinding. Forward rates project...a total mess. In time for all of the fun, JOLTS shows job openings plunge and layoffs jump. Lees meer
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CNBC Job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/04/jolts-july-2024.htmlCNBC Nikkei sees worst day since early August sell-off; Taiex leads losses in Asia as tech stocks fall
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/04/asia-pacific-markets-set-to-fall-after-recession-fears-heighten-nvidia-tumbles.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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You Won’t Believe what Happened at the Discount Window
4 september 2024 · 22 min
While the world was focused on financial volatility and liquidations at the start of August, something odd happened at the Federal Reserve's Discount Window (DW). Given everything else that has gone on since then, starting with the yield curve then considering now-cracking commodities, plus foreigners' dollar buffers and even US dealer banks' collateral holdings, there aren't that many ways to interpret what banks are doing - or not - at the DW. Lees meer
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FRB Michael Barr The Importance of Effective Liquidity Risk Management
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20231201a.htmReuters Discount window reform bill introduced as Fed works on its own overhaul
https://www.reuters.com/markets/discount-window-reform-bill-introduced-fed-works-its-own-overhaul-2024-07-29/FRBNY Staff Report 1103 Can Discount Window Stigma Be Cured? An Experimental Investigation
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr1103.pdf?sc_lang=enhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Gas Prices Are TANKING, Here's What That Means for the Economy
3 september 2024 · 18 min
Wholesale gasoline prices plunged in August to their lowest since the start of the year. This sounds like a positive, both for consumers as well as Fed policymakers and the disinflationary impact on consumer prices. But refinery margins have crashed to their lowest in three and a half years which instead points to more and bigger trouble. Lees meer
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CNBC Oil prices ease on US gasoline demand worries, economic data
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/oil-rises-as-major-producers-expected-to-keep-output-cuts-in-place.htmlThe Globe & Mail Crude Prices Fall on Energy Demand Concerns and Increased Russian Crude Exports
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Consumers Have NO MORE Savings...
2 september 2024 · 19 min
The most significant macro data from the past week certainly wasn't GDP (it wasn't even the most important datapoint within its own series), instead it was personal savings. It is yet another confirmation of what we've been hearing from across the economy and markets. Consumers are tapped out, and they're out of money because of jobs and incomes. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
BLS Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)
https://www.bls.gov/web/metro.supp.toc.htmBLS Over-the-year percent change in total private average weekly earnings for metropolitan areas, not seasonally adjusted
https://www.bls.gov/charts/metro-area-employment-and-unemployment/metro-area-oty-percent-change-in-average-weekly-earnings.htmChallenger, Gray, & Christmas Challenger Report: Job Cuts Remain Low While Hiring Falls to Lowest YTD Since 2012
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-job-cuts-remain-low-while-hiring-falls-to-lowest-ytd-since-2012/https://www.eurodollar.university
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BREAKING: GDP Explodes Higher (Unless You Look Beneath the Surface)
1 september 2024 · 19 min
People keep saying the economy is in the toilet and the US government keeps raising its estimate for GDP. The general public isn't wrong, GDP is. How do we know? Because that's what GDP says - its other side. Not as well known, it should be because this is the one which is far more accurate during cyclical downturns. History, academic studies, consistency with other signals, not to mention how much it backs up popular perception. Everything including the better side of GDP is lined up against GDP. Lees meer
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Jeremy Nalewaik Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010a_bpea_nalewaik.pdfCNBC Dollar General shares crater 25% as retailer cuts outlook, blaming ‘financially constrained’ customers
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/29/dollar-general-shares-crater-20percent-as-retailer-cuts-outlook-blaming-financially-constrained-customers.htmlCNBC Lululemon cuts guidance, misses sales estimates after botched product launch
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/29/lululemon-lulu-earnings-q2-2024.htmlMorningstar Lululemon Earnings: Near-Term Outlook Dims, but Profitability and Underlying Brand Strength Hold
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/lululemon-earnings-near-term-outlook-dims-profitability-underlying-brand-strength-holdUBS “Vibecession”? - The paradox between hard data and sentiment
https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/insights/market-news/article.1608955.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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