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New Data Shows the ENTIRE Service Economy Is Facing Collapse
30 augustus 2024 · 18 min
New information from various sources all around the US service sector shows a downturn taking hold in that segment with employment signals turning more and more negative. It confirms the ongoing and more decisive bull steepening continuing to take shape in the Treasury market. Even mainstream sources are having to cover the fact there is something big happening when you can see it in services. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNN A key part of America’s economy has shifted into reverse
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/07/economy/stocks-week-ahead-services-sector-slow-restaurants-stores/index.htmlFRB Philadelphia August 2024 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2024-08Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sectorTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2408https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Germany Is in Full Blown "Crisis" Mode, Heres What that Means for the World
29 augustus 2024 · 19 min
German observers are saying the economy has reached crisis proportions and the reason is what the US economy's weakness is doing to the rest of the world. Rather than recover as many in Europe had hoped, the situation has turned grim due to America's growing negatives. As one result, bulls are firmly in charge of all the curves. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
IFO Business Climate Index deteriorates (August 2024)
https://www.ifo.de/en/facts/2024-08-26/ifo-business-climate-index-deteriorates-august-2024Dow Jones German business increasingly in trouble, Ifo survey finds
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024082620/german-business-increasingly-in-trouble-ifo-survey-findsWSJ German Economic Expectations Nosedive as Global Slowdown Fears Bite
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/german-economic-expectations-nosedive-as-global-slowdown-fears-bite-944996b5S&P Global/HCOB Germany PMIs August 2024
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3c59ed1870c24259ac3e62cfb7792724deStatis Germany June Trade
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/08/PE24_300_51.htmlBundesbank Forecast for Germany: German economy slowly regaining its footing
https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank-forecast-for-germany-german-economy-slowly-regaining-its-footing-933658https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Chinese Company PLUNGES 30% (This Confirms Everything)
28 augustus 2024 · 18 min
Chinese e-commerce retailer Temu becomes the latest global consumer business to warn about the economy - exactly what bonds have been doing all year much to the growing frustration of authorities. They'd rather derail lower market rates at the same time as cutting their own? It actually does make a lot of sense as all these things are related. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg PDD’s Warning Highlights Growing Strain on China Consumer Firms
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-27/pdd-s-warning-highlights-growing-strain-on-china-consumer-firmsCNBC Shares of Temu parent company PDD plunge almost 29%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/27/shares-of-temu-parent-company-pdd-plunges-29percent-largest-one-day-loss.htmlBloomberg China Economists See Weak Demand Despite Expected Rate Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-26/china-seen-mired-in-weakening-demand-despite-expected-rate-cuts?srnd=phx-economics-v2Bloomberg PBOC Holds Policy Rate Steady After Warning on Bond Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-26/pboc-holds-policy-loan-rate-steady-after-warning-on-bond-rally?srnd=phx-economics-v2Bloomberg China Won’t Ban Bond Trading But Sees Risk in Buying Frenzy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-24/china-won-t-ban-bond-trading-but-sees-risk-in-buying-frenzyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The REAL Reason Interest Rates are TANKING
27 augustus 2024 · 19 min
Just as low interest rates are being validated in every way, some Economists like Nouriel Roubini are alleging that yields are instead being held down by noted monetary genius Janet Yellen who has the Treasury Department engaged in a form of stealth QE. The problem is actually Economists who think interest rates are nothing more than tools to be manipulated by all-powerful govts when in reality they are more accurate though not perfect reflections of how govts fail. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Roubini/Miran Hudson Bay Capital ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the
Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdfFT People are flipping out about T-bill issuance
https://www.ft.com/content/f0f62f0b-fee2-463a-a075-3b8dab333f40TBAC Fiscal Year 2023 Q3 Report
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TreasuryPresentationToTBACQ32023.pdfTBAC April 30, 2024
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACCharge1Q22024.pdfCNN 'Dr. Doom' explains why the Fed will lose its inflation battle
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/10/19/nouriel-roubini-markets-now.cnn-businessBloomberg Roubini Sees Significant Chance of ‘No Landing’ for US Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-04/roubini-sees-significant-chance-of-no-landing-for-us-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Everything The Main Stream Media Missed at Jackson Hole
26 augustus 2024 · 19 min
Jay Powell's Jackson Hole appearance and speech wasn't really about rate cuts. It was a sales job trying to sell you and as much of the world as possible on the Fed itself. Just making the pitch, however, means implicitly admitting the US economy just leapt out of the frying pan and into the fire. Powell says it's OK because he knows how to turn the heat down when there is zero reason to believe anyone at the FOMC knows where it is us or what the temperature is going to be. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Jay Powell Jackson Hole
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20240823a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Jerome Powell Bombshell Speech Reveals Everything You Need To Know About The Economy
25 augustus 2024 · 22 min
It wasn't just a pivot, Powell admits the US economy is in trouble as unemployment has already started rising. While that's it's own can of worms, there are also more monetary and financial considerations related to what happened early in August. CLOs, collateral, stock market liquidations, all tied to what the Fed just agreed to. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
EDU YT Japan is buying MASSIVE Amounts of Junk Credit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a_2J6mU48oCNBC Jay Powell Jackson Hole
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpiMF6bZ0sgText of Powell Speech
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240823a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Central Banks Are Now Making Emergency Rate Cuts (Is the Fed Next?)
23 augustus 2024 · 21 min
The economy really has deteriorated quickly, enough that what seemed highly unlikely if not impossible early in July was very near to happened at the end of the month. I said a July Fed rate cut was in play on the 3rd and now according to the FOMC's minutes...it was. That, along with panicky central bankers seeking to quicken the pace of cutting, is definitely not a good sign. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
EDU YT This Could Force the Fed to Cut Rates in July
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B03jMrfetksPascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez Has the Recession Started? August 2024
https://pascalmichaillat.org/16.pdfFOMC July 2024 minutes
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240731.pdfPolitico Sharp slowdown in wage growth boosts ECB rate cut hopes
https://www.politico.eu/article/big-slowdown-in-wages-boosts-ecb-rate-cut-hopes/Bloomberg ECB’s Rehn Says Growth Risks Bolster Case for September Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-19/ecb-s-rehn-says-growth-risks-bolster-case-for-september-cuthttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
BREAKING: Job Market Just Revised Down 800,000! (Payroll Crash)
22 augustus 2024 · 19 min
Was Macy's the latest victim of the strong labor market? That doesn't make sense, of course, and now the government data has been revised massively lower to better align what really happened last year with where we are this year. The new figures show not just one-third fewer jobs gained, more importantly what that does the rate of change in the rate of change (2nd derivative). It ends up in Macy's sales forecast. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Macy’s cuts sales forecast as department stores struggle to draw shoppers
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/macys-m-q2-2024-earnings.htmlMacy's Quarterly Results
https://www.macysinc.com/newsroom/news/news-details/2024/Macys-Inc.-Reports-Second-Quarter-2024-Results/default.aspxBLS QCEW Home
https://www.bls.gov/cew/BLS QCEW CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Gold Surges To All-Time Highs (Everything You Need to Know)
21 augustus 2024 · 19 min
Gold jumped to another record high at the same time stocks are back closing in on theirs. Only two weeks after global financial chaos that has everyone wondering where things are heading, the implications of each could not be more different. So, where does everything else stack up? Is it just gold vs equities? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters Gold extends record rally on dollar weakness, rate-cut bets
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-steady-near-record-high-investors-seek-more-fed-cues-2024-08-20/Bloomberg S&P 500’s Furious ‘Momentum Rally’ Takes a Break: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-19/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updatesCNBC U.S. crude oil falls nearly 3% as U.S. pushes for Gaza cease-fire, China demand weighs on market
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/19/crude-oil-prices-today.htmlBloomberg Diesel Demand Hits 26-Year Seasonal Low in US on Slowing Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/diesel-demand-hits-26-year-seasonal-low-in-us-on-slowing-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
If This is Right, Unemployment is About to SKYROCKET
20 augustus 2024 · 19 min
Economists and officials therefore the financial media continue to downplay the plunge in US consumer confidence, repeatedly referring to it as a "vibe-cession" that doesn't fit with the current data or modeled forecasts. History, common sense, and even econometric math isn't on their, or the data's, side. All of those say unemployment is about to surge. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Washington Post Why We're Gloomier Than The Economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/17/AR2008061702463_pf.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The REAL Economic Data Was Just Released, It's Not Good
19 augustus 2024 · 18 min
Revisions are a normal part of high frequency data. Constant, near-exclusive downward revisions are not. Rewrites should be more evenly distributed which means these stats are overstating the economy. Plus, the problem is spreading hitting retail sales and IP as well as payrolls. While everyone went nuts over retail sales, the problem with July's number isn't just the likely downward revision. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Says He’s Growing More Concerned About Employment
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-14/fed-s-goolsbee-says-he-s-growing-more-concerned-about-employmentBloomberg Manufacturers Axe Products as a Factory Slowdown Lingers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-16/rockwell-rok-xylem-xyl-axe-products-as-factory-slowdown-deepenshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
I've Changed My Mind, I Think Interest Rates are About to Rise, Here's Why
18 augustus 2024 · 17 min
Financial volatility. Recession conditions. Lower growth and inflation. The rate cuts are still coming. So, that means interest rates around the world are about to go...UP? The fundamentals haven't changed - the calendar has. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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What Steel Prices CRASHING Means for the Global Economy
16 augustus 2024 · 17 min
Steel prices are plunging, down a quarter since May at lows not seen since 2016. The chairman of the world's largest producer just said he expects it to get much worse in terms of prices and for industry. The implications are far broader than steel or China. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg World’s Biggest Steel Producer Warns of ‘Severe’ Industry Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-14/china-steel-industry-in-crisis-as-baowu-warns-of-severe-winterBloomberg ArcelorMittal Cries Foul on Steel Exports From China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-01/arcelormittal-cries-foul-on-china-steel-exports-as-profit-fallsBloomberg Iron Ore Takes Fresh Hit as Concerns Over Global Glut Exact Toll
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/iron-ore-in-retreat-as-concerns-over-global-surplus-take-tollS&P Global China's steel output remains strong; downstream outlook still dim
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/071524-chinas-steel-output-remains-strong-downstream-outlook-still-dimhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
This Was the Point of NO return (CPI Breakdown)
15 augustus 2024 · 18 min
This was supposed to be all about "inflation" and instead everything is coming up jobs - including the latest CPI report. From Home Depot's most recent admission to now US refiners taking drastic steps to avoid getting caught with an energy glut (yep, that's right), the entire economy flipped from "sticky inflation" to Uh-Oh over employment. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg It’s Inflation Week in the US. But Everyone’s Talking About Jobs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-12/fed-rate-cuts-it-s-us-inflation-week-and-everyone-s-talking-jobsHome Depot
https://corporate.homedepot.com/news/earnings/home-depot-announces-second-quarter-2024-earningsCNBC Home Depot expects sales to weaken as consumers grow more cautious
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/13/home-depot-hd-q2-2024-earnings.htmlBloomberg Oil Refiners in US Slow Down, Stoking Global Crude Glut Worries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-11/oil-refiners-in-us-slow-down-stoking-global-crude-glut-worrieshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Record Amounts of Capital Urgently Fleeing China (Everything You Need to Know)
14 augustus 2024 · 19 min
While the world was distracted by US recession provoking a Japanese stock market crash, China was continuing to meltdown. In just the past few days the country reported: a record drop in foreign money fleeing China; the first contraction in bank lending to the real economy in nineteen years; record low market interest rates; and the PBOC going off the rails trying to derail that bond rally. And we thought China was in rough shape...last month. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China Goes to New Extreme in Crackdown on Bond-Market Frenzy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-13/china-goes-to-new-extremes-in-crackdown-on-bond-market-frenzyBloomberg China Regulators Tell Some Rural Banks to Renege on Bond Trades
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/china-regulators-tell-some-rural-banks-to-renege-on-bond-tradesBloomberg China Brokers Curb Bond Trading Amid PBOC Warnings on Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/chinese-brokers-curb-bond-trading-amid-warnings-on-rallyBloomberg China Asked State Banks to Keep Record of Government Bond Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/china-s-state-banks-asked-to-record-buyers-of-government-bondshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Why is the Global Economy So Interconnected?
13 augustus 2024 · 19 min
How in the world does sudden fear over a US recession lead to a crash in Japanese stocks? Even more important, what might that crash suggest about the US recession? Our world is more interconnected than you've been led to believe. Our entire economic worldview is oriented around national groupings not because that’s the way the world works but because it keeps central bankers in a job. What globally synchronized is telling us now is that job losses are going to painfully rise - ours, not theirs. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bank of Japan New Procedures for Money Market Operations and Monetary Easing
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2001/k010319a.htmWorld Bank Research Paper Global Recessions
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/185391583249079464/pdf/Global-Recessions.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Economist Calling for an Emergency 75 Basis Point Rate Cut
12 augustus 2024 · 19 min
After a chaotic, somewhat panicky prior week, the talking points went out with a clear aim to restore calm. That meant downplaying every last concerning development, starting with Jeremy Siegel. Sure enough, he played along and on it went from there. Even Fed officials know what's coming yet they'll keep denying anything's wrong right up until the first emergency meeting rate cut. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
CNBC Jeremy Siegel backs off on calls for the Fed to do an emergency interest rate cut
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/08/jeremy-siegel-backs-off-on-calls-for-fed-to-do-an-emergency-rate-cut.htmlBloomberg Barkin Says Economy Healthy With Key Questions Around Job Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-03/barkin-says-economy-healthy-with-key-questions-around-job-marketBloomberg Layoffs Are a Last Resort Looming for More US Companies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/us-edges-towards-layoffs-as-job-market-cools-fed-rates-pressure-firmsBloomberg Layoffs Are a Last Resort Looming for More US Companies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/us-edges-towards-layoffs-as-job-market-cools-fed-rates-pressure-firmshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
This Warning Indicator Has Only Been Here 3 Other Times
11 augustus 2024 · 18 min
Though calm was restored after a wild few days in global financial markets, key market signals remained steadfastly negative. One of the most crucial of those even dropped to a level we've only seen three other times in more than 35 years - all three some of the worst cases. Moreover, that one was corroborated by a record low for swaps also set this week. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNN Money Fed explains the big rate cut
https://money.cnn.com/2007/10/09/news/economy/fed_minutes_analysis/index.htm?postversion=2007100914The New York Times Dow Breaks 3,000 but Ends at 2,980.20
https://www.nytimes.com/1990/07/14/business/dow-breaks-3000-but-ends-at-2980.20.htmlThe New York Times 10.08 RISE PUTS DOW AT 1,020.35
https://www.nytimes.com/1981/04/25/business/10.08-rise-puts-dow-at-1020.35.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Every Time This Happens, It Leads to High Unemployment
9 augustus 2024 · 19 min
Last week, the markets and the media melted down over well-founded recession fear. This week, in the aftermath, everyone will say it was all overblown. That's just normal. Meanwhile, the actual recession continues to progress and the data keeps showing momentum is all on that side. This includes yet another signal strongly correlated with unemployment. If that wasn't enough, yet more warnings from leisure and travel companies. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Everyone is talking about the Sahm recession indicator.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/recession-what-is-the-sahm-rule-and-why-is-everyone-talking-about-it.htmlCNBC Airbnb shares drop 14% on earnings miss as company warns of slowing U.S. demand
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/06/airbnb-shares-drop-14percent-on-earnings-miss-as-company-warns-of-slowing-us-demand.htmlCNBC Southwest profit falls 46% as airline takes ‘urgent’ steps to increase revenue
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/southwest-airlines-luv-earnings-q2-2024.htmlBloomberg Delta’s Disappointing Outlook Sends Warning on Summer Travel
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/delta-s-outlook-misses-estimates-as-carriers-slash-summer-fareshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Something Fundamentally has Changed the Economy What It Means for You
8 augustus 2024 · 18 min
The date July 11 keeps coming up in a lot of different markets, starting with stocks. The Nikkei's last all-time high was on that day and so was the NASDAQ's. But July also features prominently in commodities and even Treasuries. The reason for it confirms so many suspicions about what just happened this past weekend therefore what it means going forward. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS June CPI
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Global Asset Prices are Repricing Risk Assets (Rapidly)
7 augustus 2024 · 18 min
When even big-name mainstream Economists are begging the Fed for emergency rate cuts, you might already have the sense this wasn't just a one-weekend show. US recession scrambles a lot of fundamental perceptions and values, causing a substantial and sizable repricing across asset classes. That repricing just happened to be most obvious and violent in Japan. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Paul Krugman X
https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/1820426175031673269CNBC Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel says Fed needs to make an emergency rate cut
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Japan is CRATERING, The Rest Of The World Is Next...
6 augustus 2024 · 19 min
Japan was the epicenter for a wave of liquidations in smashing financial markets all over the world. It had all the telltale signs of a collateral and margin call. This wasn't about Japanese banks or even Japan, rather the sudden realization over the US soft landing narrative going up in smoke triggered a monster repricing and revaluation. So, what does all that mean? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Japan’s Nikkei logs worst day since 1987 Black Monday crash
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/asia-markets.htmlThe Economist Why Japanese markets have plummeted
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/05/why-japanese-markets-have-plummetedBloomberg Jolt in Credit Fear Gauges Pushes Company Borrowers to Sidelines
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/asia-high-grade-dollar-bond-spreads-widen-the-most-in-22-monthsBloomberg Wall Street Hit by Fears Economy in ‘Danger Zone’: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/japanese-stocks-tumble-leading-equities-selloff-markets-wrap?itm_source=record&itm_campaign=Global_Stocks_Selloff&itm_content=%27Mad_Rush%27_for_Treasuries-3CNBC Dow drops 900 points, Nasdaq craters 3% in global market rout: Live updates
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.htmlDeutsche Bank What impact is “higher for longer” having on the CLO market in 2024?
https://flow.db.com/trust-and-agency-services/what-impact-is-higher-for-longer-having-on-the-clo-market-in-2024https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Recession Has Hit The Job Market
5 augustus 2024 · 19 min
The July payroll report confirmed the US economy is heading for trouble. Key parts of it showed recession has likely already begun. As reality dawns across the marketplace, focus turns to what comes next now that the soft landing didn't land. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
It's Official: The Recession is Here
4 augustus 2024 · 18 min
With the questions of "what" and "when" now mainly answered, we can finally focus on "how bad." To start putting together some answers, we'll use three different markets and sets of indications each examine a separate aspect of the recession proposition; short run, intermediate, and the long term. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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It's Official: Unemployment Is About to Hit the Fan
2 augustus 2024 · 22 min
A whole bunch of bad data, much of it focused on deterioration in the US labor market (pre-July payrolls). That unleashed huge swings in rates markets and forward rates. One reason for all this is the historical pattern is perfectly clear. What we're seeing right now happens EVERY TIME. No exceptions. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htmFederal Reserve Chair Powell Press Conference July 31
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hb1eHcqGpY0https://www.eurodollar.university
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Japan's Central Bank Just Hiked Rates WHILE in a Recession
1 augustus 2024 · 19 min
Central banks don't hike rates during a recession. Or do they? The Bank of Japan just did and for the second time. By doing it, BoJ is laying itself bare; both in terms of transparently acting politically and maybe more important exposing the lie about interest rate policies. Peter Pan is not happy. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bank of Japan Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations and Decision on the Plan
for the Reduction of the Purchase Amount of Japanese Government Bonds
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k240731a.pdfNikkei Bank of Japan raises interest rate to 0.25%, open to further hike this year
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank-of-Japan/Bank-of-Japan-raises-interest-rate-to-0.25-open-to-further-hike-this-yearJapan Times Bank of Japan delivers one-two punch few were expecting
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/07/31/economy/boj-rates/Wall Street Journal Bank of Japan Raises Rates, Driving Up Yen
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bank-of-japan-hikes-rates-tapers-bond-buying-in-fresh-step-to-policy-normalization-bc8c33fbBloomberg Japan’s Central Bank Hikes Key Rate Hours Before the Fed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-31/boj-hikes-interest-rate-unveils-plan-to-cut-back-bond-buyinghttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Jobs Have Completely Stopped Hiring
31 juli 2024 · 17 min
Hiring in the US absolutely plunged in June, so much you really have to see it to believe it. At the same time, global fast food giant McDonalds reported lower same store sales for the first time since 2020. The reason why people can no longer afford to eat as much under the golden arches isn't necessarily price changes, what's changed recently is the alarming retreat in employment. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS JOLTS press release July 30, 2024
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htmCNBC McDonald’s earnings, revenue miss estimates as consumer pullback worsens
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/29/mcdonalds-mcd-q2-2024-earnings.htmlCNBC McDonald’s executives admit diners think prices are too high, say they’re working to create value
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/29/mcdonalds-earnings-executives-say-prices-are-too-high.htmlPhilly Fed Large Bank Credit Card and Mortgage Data
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/large-bank-credit-card-and-mortgage-data
https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Global Repo Market is Starting to Explode (does This Mean a GFC is Near?)
30 juli 2024 · 18 min
A whole lot going on in the eurodollar shadows. Record high repo pool (reverse repo) at the Fed. Bull steepening even more aggressively outside of Treasuries. Primary dealers absolutely hoarding collateral to a degree we haven't seen since March 2020. Banks around the world heavily buying safety and liquidity. The dollar hammering currencies. But why? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters Rupee hits record low on month-end dollar demand; RBI helps cap losses
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-hits-record-low-month-end-dollar-demand-rbi-helps-cap-losses-2024-07-29/https://www.eurodollar.university
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People Are Running Out Of Money
29 juli 2024 · 18 min
According to the latest update, US consumers are out of savings. As nominal incomes have slowed way down, consumers have cut back only somewhat mainly spending on goods - causing the goods recession every big-name company is currently warning over. With unemployment rising and savings gone, there's no margin left even to maintain the current rate of decline. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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This Just Confirmed Everything
28 juli 2024 · 18 min
Companies around the economy are increasingly warning about the negative effects of the goods recession, one after another missing revenue and sales targets/expectations. The latest from several of the largest global businesses point to deepening macroeconomic setbacks. Even the automobile industry is showing signs of serious weakness, starting with pricing. No surprise commodity markets are sharply lower in spite of supply factors as the downturn is set to spread. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Markets Tear Up Popular Trades That Reached ‘Stupid Levels’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-25/everything-you-thought-you-knew-about-2024-markets-has-changedEuroNews Nestlé downgrades sales outlook and looks to new products for growth
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/07/25/nestle-downgrades-sales-outlook-and-looks-to-new-products-for-growthCNBC Unilever pops 6% on margin guidance raise, Ben & Jerry’s spinoff on track to complete by end of 2025
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/unilever-pops-6percent-on-guidance-raise-says-ben-jerrys-spinoff-on-track.htmlSTMicroelectronics Reports 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results
https://investors.st.com/static-files/9f07c6a1-5da9-49cf-8a95-4c301436fb0bThe Detroit News Ford CFO says growing dealer inventory 'worries me'
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/06/11/ford-cfo-john-lawler-growing-dealer-inventory-worry/74056579007/J.D. Power-GlobalData U.S. Automotive Forecast for July 2024
https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20240726147635/jd-power-globaldata-us-automotive-forecast-for-july-2024CNBC U.S. crude oil on pace for third weekly decline as China demand outweighs U.S. growth
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/crude-oil-prices-today.htmlCNBC U.S. crude oil falls nearly 2% to lowest levels in six weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oil-prices-drop-to-lowest-levels-in-more-than-a-month.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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New GDP Report Shocks the Market (what you need to know)
26 juli 2024 · 19 min
A majority of Americans believe the US is in recession and has been for some time. Second quarter GDP just came out wildly above expectations. So is everyone wrong? Not quite. In fact, the GDP estimates actually explain why people are so mad, what they are already doing about it, and why that spells trouble for the entire economy. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
It doesn’t matter what experts say — 3 in 5 believe America is in a recession
https://studyfinds.org/3-in-5-america-in-recession/https://www.eurodollar.university
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HOLY SMOKES, You Won't Believe What Just Happened To Bonds
25 juli 2024 · 19 min
The Treasury curve continues to make escalating even decisive bull moves. It's not difficult to see why, as another global consumer company admits its having trouble selling its products and in this case to the more well-to-do segment. In addition, former Fed members are urging immediate rate cuts openly wondering if it might be too late. One neighboring central bank is waiting to find out, unleashing another cut of its own and saying there are surely more coming. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC World’s largest luxury group LVMH slumps 4% after second-quarter revenue miss
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/24/worlds-largest-luxury-group-lvmh-slumps-5percent-after-reporting-revenue-miss.htmlBloomberg LVMH Shows the Luxury Sector Is in Pain
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-24/what-lvmh-tells-us-about-luxury-s-financial-prospectsBloomberg I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-24/the-fed-needs-to-cut-interest-rates-nowWSJ Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate to 4.5%, Frets Over Downside Risks
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-canada-cuts-policy-rate-to-4-5-frets-over-downside-risks-78a7a81bBank of Canada Policy Statement
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/07/fad-press-release-2024-07-24/Bank of Canada Press Conference
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-monetary-policy-report-july-2024/https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Q&A 100 2-hour Spectacular
24 juli 2024 · 2 uur 13 min
Replay of the livestream Member Q&A 100 epic discussion. George. Jim. Steve. Mike. Eric. Brent. Emil and Jeff back together again. Two hours of back and forth. Including why Home Alone lied to you. Lees meer
There was so much all in one place. Spirited back and forth between all the fellas, a real deep dive in true Eurodollar University style. Arguing about the past. Angling toward the future. Even a few questions from EDU members. We just might have to do this again.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The REAL Reason China’s Economy Is in Crisis Mode
23 juli 2024 · 19 min
China's dollar woes have jumped in recent months, so much that they've come out of the eurodollar shadows enough to impact the onshore banking system in an unexpected way. Foreign holdings of negotiable bank CDs have exploded. We'll discuss what that means and how it relates to China's dollar shortage and the surprise set of rate cuts announced by the PBOC earlier today. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Global Funds Pile Up Nearly a Trillion Yuan of China Bank Bonds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/global-funds-pile-up-nearly-a-trillion-yuan-of-china-bank-bondsBloomberg China Surprises With Rate Cut After Xi’s Big Meeting Disappoints
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/pboc-cuts-seven-day-reverse-repo-rate-to-1-7-to-support-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Why Getting A *Good* Job Feels Impossible Right Now
22 juli 2024 · 19 min
To way too many Americans and other workers, this is already a recession of opportunity. Without the major statics yet to show it, mainstream commentary has mocked their plight as a "vibe-cession." Now the data is beginning to more clearly align with the recession "vibe", suddenly even authorities are starting to worry so out comes the rate cuts. As Steve says, that's not what you want. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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https://www.eurodollar.universityBloomberg Goolsbee Says Fed Risks ‘Golden Path’ If It Doesn’t Cut Soon
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-18/goolsbee-says-fed-risks-golden-path-if-it-doesn-t-cut-soonhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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What Will Happen When the Fed Finally Cuts Rates
21 juli 2024 · 20 min
All year all anyone has heard is the Fed and its rate cuts. Soft landings imply a little weakness but no worry, Jay Powell will cut rates once maybe twice and everything will be just fine. The only question is, why on earth does anyone believe this? The evidence and history of interest rate targeting - as you'll see - is indeed 100%, as in total failure. Rate cuts (like hikes) are pure superstition. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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https://www.eurodollar.universityPBS Is the Fed going to cut interest rates? What was once a question of ‘when’ is now less certain
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/is-the-fed-going-to-cut-interest-rates-what-was-once-a-question-of-when-is-now-less-certainMorningstar We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates
https://www.morningstar.com/economy/we-expect-gdp-growth-weaken-until-fed-starts-cutting-interest-ratesFOMC Transcript March 1991
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfRemarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Rules vs. discretionary monetary policy
At the 15th Anniversary Conference of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University, Stanford, California
September 5, 1997
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/1997/19970905.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Copper Gold Ratio is Sending a Massive Warning to the Economy (here's what that means)
19 juli 2024 · 18 min
In the midst of other major warnings, here comes another substantial one. Copper has moved way past its supply squeezed record high from just two months ago and is now crashing. At the same time, gold is reaching new heights. The copper to gold ratio therefore just dropped to its lowest since...November 2020. Taking a deeper look at what all this means. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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https://www.eurodollar.universityBloomberg China’s Unusually Large Copper Stockpiles Fuel Demand Concerns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/china-s-unusually-large-copper-stockpiles-fuel-demand-concernsBloomberg Gold Slips From Record High as Traders Ponder Bet on Fed Pivot
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/gold-holds-at-record-high-as-rate-cut-bets-fuel-demand-rushhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Global Monetary System Is Reliant on Swap Spreads (and they are doing something big)
18 juli 2024 · 19 min
Swaps are of paramount importance to the financial world, priced by the very monetary system itself. As a consequence, swap market indications are even more critical than the yield curve. But what does it all mean, and how can you decipher what appear its confusing signals? A few minutes on some manageable basics and you're ready to read the market's big move. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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We Need to Discuss the Yield Curve Immediately
17 juli 2024 · 18 min
Another part of the yield curve un-inverted, this time the short to long segment. Demonstrating the perpetual inability to make sense of it, mainstream sources are suggesting some "Trump trade" is behind this. No. Unequivocally no. The classic bull case is building and this is merely the latest nascent signal. It isn't complete yet, but incoming data including today's negative retail sales continues to suggest the same case. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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NYT 30-year U.S. bond is back in big way
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/09/business/worldbusiness/30year-us-bond-is-back-in-big-way.html -
It's Over: China’s ENTIRE Economy Just Collapsed
16 juli 2024 · 20 min
It started Friday when China's central bank reported more than just new record low credit stats, the deterioration over the past few months has been astounding. That obviously spread to the Chinese economy which the government confirmed today with ugly data across-the-board, big miss in GDP and grim numbers on retail sales. Yet, everyone wants more "stimulus" that all this data proves didn't stimulate a thing. Something to keep in mind when thinking about upcoming Fed rate cuts. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNN How ready is China’s military? Dramatic downfall of two defense ministers raises questions
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/01/china/china-defense-ministers-downfall-analysis-intl-hnk/index.htmlFxStreet China: GDP miss calls for faster fiscal spending – Standard Chartered
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-gdp-miss-calls-for-faster-fiscal-spending-standard-chartered-202407151119FT China plays down hopes for ‘strong medicine’ at top economic policy meeting
https://www.ft.com/content/6f4079ea-e8fe-46c8-84b3-75aff56b7011Reuters China June new bank loans miss forecasts, some money gauges hit record lows
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-june-new-bank-loans-miss-forecasts-some-money-gauges-hit-record-lows-2024-07-12/EURODOLLAR UNVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE INFORMATION:
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The Japanese Government Is Getting Desperate As The Yen Collapses
15 juli 2024 · 19 min
Why does the Japanese government keep intervening trying to prop up the yen, and why does it keep failing? This isn't just about the yen or Japan, nor is it completely a matter of what's unfolding right now. There is a deeper truth that needs to be made more widely which applies universally to monetary systems around the world. And the yen's crash is the clearest example. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Inflation Report Reveals the Truth About the Economy
14 juli 2024 · 18 min
There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent information. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC Transcript April 2010
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20100428meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Bombshell CPI Report Shocks The Market (Here's What You Need To Know)
12 juli 2024 · 18 min
The June consumer price estimates at first seemed like good news. Two months in a row at low and now negative changes. But these past two months have shown a little more weakness than most had bargained for, instead so many of the details consistent with recession indications spilling out from all over the economy. No wonder bond yields dropped sharply, though, alarmingly, swap spreads got there well before today. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS June 2024 CPI
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfBloomberg Stocks See Big Rotation as Yields Sink on Fed Bets: Markets Wrap
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You Won't Believe What's Happening in China
11 juli 2024 · 20 min
Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly desperate over their inability to stabilize any of the economy, banking system, or markets. CNY keeps going down, as does the economy. Banks in China aren't lending while dozens are now 'disappearing.' Safety/liquidity of government bonds makes perfect sense. Not to the PBOC which is going to be shorting it by hundreds of billions and this is why. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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https://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleBloomberg Closer Yen, Yuan Correlation Is Danger Sign for Asian Currencies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/closer-yen-yuan-correlation-is-danger-sign-for-asian-currencies?srnd=economics-v2X Video showing Jiangxi Bank 'protest'
https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1810456112652779538The Economist Why Chinese banks are now vanishing
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/04/why-chinese-banks-are-now-vanishingBloomberg China Merges Hundreds of Rural Banks as Financial Risks Mount
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-merges-hundreds-of-rural-banks-as-financial-risks-mountBloomberg China's PBOC Readies Multibillion-Yuan Pool of Bonds to Sell by Tapping Major Banks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-05/pboc-readies-hundreds-of-billions-of-yuan-bond-sale-capacityCNN Chinese government bonds are on fire. That’s ringing alarm bells in Beijing
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/03/business/china-bond-market-bank-crisis-svb-intl-hnk/index.htmlChina NBS June 2024 CPI
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202407/t20240710_1955508.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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LEAKED: Interest Rate Cuts Are Coming?!
10 juli 2024 · 17 min
From 'strong and resilient' to 'uh oh' in a heartbeat. The unemployment rate has intruded itself on the soft landing narrative, forcing a near-total rethink of the situation all across the mainstream. Some major bank strategists are now calling for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed at the same time the yield curve is beginning to flash bull. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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https://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleFed Chair Powell testimony (courtesy CBS News)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Og8W_VK1gMMFed Chair Powell prepared remarks before Congress
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20240709a.htmCNBC The Fed is ‘playing with fire’ by not cutting rates, says creator of ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicator
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/economist-sahm-who-devised-recession-rule-says-the-fed-is-playing-with-fire-.htmlFortune The Fed could slash rates by 200 points over 8 straight meetings as the economy heads for a sharper downtrend, Citi says
https://fortune.com/2024/07/07/fed-rate-cuts-outlook-200-points-economy-sharper-slowdown-citi/https://www.eurodollar.university
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Europe is Now In Full Blown Crisis Mode (what does this mean for the rest of the world?)
9 juli 2024 · 18 min
Political turmoil in Europe is very easy to understand. The European economy is supposed to be recovering from its unofficial recession, and yet the most recent data shows instead alarming (re)acceleration to the downside in a number of places. Realizing this means the path to clawing back some of the supply shock's price increases is disappearing, voters are simply voting accordingly. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Pew Research Center Economic ratings across 34 countries are more negative than positive
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/06/07/economic-ratings-across-34-countries-are-more-negative-than-positive/World Bank Global trade has nearly flatlined. Populism is taking a toll on growth
https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/global-trade-has-nearly-flatlined-populism-taking-toll-growthUN Trade and Development Global economic growth set to slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above recession threshold
https://unctad.org/news/global-economic-growth-set-slow-26-2024-just-above-recession-thresholdhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Oh Sh*t, The Job Market Just Broke
8 juli 2024 · 19 min
Unemployment in the US is now steadily moving higher. The June 2024 employment report contained more substantial downward revisions, evidence more employers are cutting hours, and most concerning is another increase to the unemployment rate. And, contrary to many claims, it's not the "good" kind of rising unemployment. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
BLS Employment Situation Summary June 2024
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmBloomberg The US Economic Slowdown Is Looking More Threatening
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-05/us-jobs-report-economic-slowdown-is-looking-more-threateningFOMC June 2024 Minutes
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240612.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Phase 2 of the Commercial Real Estate Collapse Has Begun
7 juli 2024 · 18 min
According to multiple recent reports, banks are very quietly selling out of CRE positions. Those reports are backed up by banking data which clearly shows an inflection in systemic loans in the space. Combined, we have strong evidence showing the second stage of the CRE bust has now started. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters Big US banks withstand Fed's commercial real estate shock scenario
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/big-us-banks-withstand-feds-commercial-real-estate-shock-scenario-2024-06-26/Federal Reserve Stress Test Results 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2024-dfast-results-20240626.pdfNYT Office Building Losses Start to Pile Up, and More Pain Is Expected
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/business/office-building-foreclosures-losses.htmlNYT Fearing Losses, Banks Are Quietly Dumping Real Estate Loans
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/business/commercial-real-estate-loans.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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What Comes After the Dollar dies
6 juli 2024 · 58 min
Modern economies have been moving in the direction of ledger money not for years or decades, for centuries. The world's current reserve currency, the eurodollar, merely represented the second stage in the evolutionary process. Now that it has surpassed its useful life, the door is wide open for the third stage which seems tailor-made for something like Bitcoin. Why hasn't the digital ledger taken advantage of the opportunity? Is there some other kind which is? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Special Presentation: Ledger Money Won't Be Perfect
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This Could Force the Fed to Cut Rates in July
4 juli 2024 · 19 min
Fed officials have repeatedly stated they are going to be patient before pivoting to rate cuts. But that would only be the case if the economy is actually strong and resilient. Should the labor market show signs of falling off dramatically, they'd cut their rates in a hurry. Today's macro data were filled with exactly those kinds of warning signs. Lees meer
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Bloomberg Powell Welcomes Recent Data But Fed Needs More Confidence to Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/powell-welcomes-recent-data-but-fed-needs-more-confidence-to-cutBloomberg Bond Traders Boldly Bet on 300 Basis Points of Fed Cuts by March
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/bond-traders-boldly-bet-on-300-basis-points-of-fed-cuts-by-marchBloomberg US Services Activity Contracts at Fastest Pace in Four Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/us-services-activity-contracts-at-fastest-pace-in-four-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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