Alle afleveringen van Eurodollar University – pagina 15 van 31

Recession Warning Signs You Need To Be Watching (w/ @EPBResearch )

3 juli 2024 · 23 min

Afspelen

If you want to watch the full interview check it out at https://www.eurodollar.university Lees meer

Everyone wants to know the answer to the recession question. So, by very popular demand, Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research checks in with Jeff on the unusual state and status of the US business cycle. The whole monumental matter just might come down to houses.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's Treasury Market Just Hit a Record Low

2 juli 2024 · 16 min

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Government bond yields in China just plunged to more record lows as market agents are growing even more pessimistic. The unquenchable demand for safe and liquid assets has the PBOC getting ready to sell bonds into a marketplace that is increasingly concerned about a lot more than Chinese issues. More strong evidence for globally synchronized. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Economists Raise China Growth Forecasts as Exports Improve
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/economists-raise-china-growth-forecasts-as-exports-improve

Bloomberg El-Erian Says Slowing Economy Raises Fed Policy-Error Risk
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-28/el-erian-says-slowing-economy-raises-fed-policy-error-risk

Bloomberg A $100 Billion Bet on China’s Economy Sours as Warehouses Empty
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/china-s-third-plenum-and-what-it-means-for-tax-reform-and-supply-chains?srnd=economics-v2

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Oh Sh*t, GLOBAL Unemployment Is Rising (What does this lead to)

1 juli 2024 · 19 min

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Soft landings and resilient economy supported by strength in labor markets. At least that's the narrative, the truth is completely different. Much of the developed world is being swept up in a wave of rising unemployment. Yes, including the US.;/ Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bank of Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/06/opening-statement-2024-06-05/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Japanese Yen Is CRASHING (what this means for the world)

30 juni 2024 · 19 min

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Another new low for JPY as the Japanese government is shuffling up its top Finance Ministry people. Everyone continues to blame the Fed for the yen's crash but the evidence conclusively shows that's not it. This only raises the question, what is it? The yen's own track record holds the answer and it is one that applies to you. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Reuters Japan names new FX diplomat as yen hits 38-year low
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-appoints-atsushi-mimura-top-fx-diplomat-replacing-masato-kanda-2024-06-28/

Reuters Japan warns against rapid FX moves, reiterates readiness for action
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japan-warns-against-rapid-fx-moves-reiterates-readiness-action-2024-06-24/

Bloomberg Yen Falls Through 161 Per Dollar, Putting Intervention in Focus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-28/yen-falls-through-161-per-dollar-as-intervention-wagers-increase

Barrons The Fed’s Higher for Longer Policy Is Breaking the Yen
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-yen-b66308af

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Walgreens Warns: People Have Suddenly Stopped Coming

28 juni 2024 · 18 min

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Retail and Pharmacy giant Walgreens now says there won't be a second half rebound after all, not according to its view of the consumer economy. It was seconded by Levi's and then European behemoth H&M. All of that ties together with a record low in US pending home sales and a summer driving season that's already an enormous bust as recession forces bear down. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

NBCNews Walgreens plans store closures as CEO says consumers 'stunned' by prices
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/walgreens-plans-store-closures-ceo-says-consumers-stunned-prices-rcna159208

CNBC Levi’s shares drop 15% as jeans maker’s sales disappoint despite denim craze
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/26/levi-levi-earnings-q2-2024.html

CNBC H&M plunges 13% on doubts over full-year margin target, June sales outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/27/hm-plunges-12point5percent-on-doubts-over-full-year-margin-target-june-sales-outlook.html

Bloomberg US Pending Home Sales Index Slides to Record Low on High Rates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-27/us-pending-home-sales-index-slides-to-record-low-on-high-rates

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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You Won't Believe What China's Central Bank Is Doing

27 juni 2024 · 20 min

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China's top central banker confirmed last week the intention to radically change the operations of the Peoples' Bank of China. Some have speculated this equates to an imminent QE, but that has nothing to do with the reform. We've seen this before. The issue is bank, not central bank. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

BNP Implications of China's Impaired Transmission Mechanism
https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/f3e3ee55-9e19-455f-a1a6-08123581e2e9

SCMP Xi Jinping to China’s central bank: restart treasury-bond trade, after 2-decade hiatus
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3256967/xi-jinping-chinas-central-bank-restart-treasury-bond-trade-after-2-decade-hiatus

Pan Gongsheng's speech at Shanghai
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688172/5188125/5379416/index.html

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Primary Dealer Banks Showing Signs Of Global Collateral Tightening

26 juni 2024 · 19 min

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There have been a whole bunch of ripples through the monetary system coming in from all angles pointing toward a sizable collateral disruption. The primary culprit(s) appears to be from Europe, starting in bond spreads surging off election uncertainty though we can't discount the ECB's rate cut as a factor. The eurodollar aftershocks are pronounced regardless of origin. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

IOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implications
https://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d32.pdf

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Japan is buying MASSIVE Amounts of Junk Credit

25 juni 2024 · 20 min

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Japanese banks have been bulking up on US junk corporate credit for the last year, driven entirely by an increasingly difficult reach for yield. That means overlooking dangers and risks which in other less distorted times would have been taken more seriously. The end result is a large and growing distortion in a key part of the credit markets. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bank of Japan Financial System Report October 2019
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/brp/fsr/data/fsr191024a.pdf

VanEck Looking Beyond AAA Rated CLOs Pays Off
https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/income-investing/looking-beyond-aaa-rated-clos-pays-off/

Deutsche Bank What impact is 'higher for longer' having on the CLO market in 2024
https://flow.db.com/trust-and-agency-services/what-impact-is-higher-for-longer-having-on-the-clo-market-in-2024

Bloomberg A $1.3 Trillion Fund Pool for Junk-Rated US Firms Has Unlikely Lifeline: Japan's Banks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/the-1-3-trillion-clo-market-grows-more-dependent-on-japan-banks

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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Copper's Latest Move Has The Market Freaking Out

25 juni 2024 · 19 min

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Copper and aluminum were soaring and so were reflation expectations for the global economy. If the world wasn't too careful, those might even lead to resurgent inflation. What's happening in those and other commodities has shocked market observers. As has the most recent global macro data. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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Oh Sh*t, AAA Debt Is Starting to Fail Again...

23 juni 2024 · 20 min

Afspelen

Another CRE securitized structure is reportedly causing losses for its top tier, this one in another country and from a different corner of the real estate market. This matches recent reports that big banks are quietly beginning to sell their seniors in the space. Moreover, US homebuilder activity has plunged to new lows as the crosscurrents in the economy and financing are getting more unfavorable. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Failures on Property Pain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/pimco-warns-of-more-regional-bank-failures-on-commercial-property-pain

Bloomberg CMBS Buyers Face First Europe AAA Loss Since Credit Crunch
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/cmbs-buyers-set-for-first-europe-aaa-loss-since-credit-crunch

Bloomberg Losses Pile Up in Top-Rated Bonds Backed by Commercial Real Estate Debt
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/cmbs-buyers-suffer-first-loss-on-aaa-debt-since-financial-crisis

CREDiQ CRE CLO Distress Rate Widens to 9.74%
https://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/06/14/cre-clo-distress-rate-widens-to-9-74/

CREDiQ Loan Modifications Swell 195% in 12 Months
https://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/06/21/loan-modifications-swell-195-in-12-months-cred-iq/

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You Won’t Believe What the Swiss Central Bank Just Did

21 juni 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

The Swiss National Bank surprised Economists by cutting rates for the second time in a row. Citing a number of potential worries starting with more recession, the rate cuts are aligned with growing dollar troubles roiling the rest of the world. Major currencies are sinking fast, hitting new lows and pointing toward the same reasoning just acted on in Switzerland. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg SNB Silence Sets Up Another Rate-Cut Cliffhanger
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/swiss-national-bank-interest-rate-cuts-central-bank-silence-sets-up-cliffhanger

Switzerland Economic forecast largely unchanged: Swiss growth in 2024 to be below average
https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/media-releases.msg-id-101432.html

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 20, 2024
https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240620

CNBC Switzerland makes second interest rate cut as major economies diverge on monetary policy easing
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/switzerland-trims-key-interest-rate-to-1point25percent-in-second-cut-of-the-year.html

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MAJOR Bank Makes Announcement to Sell Billions in Treasuries

20 juni 2024 · 20 min

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A Japanese bank giant announced it was going to begin selling tens of BILLIONS in USTs and other European government bonds knowing full well the institution is going to take huge losses on the sales. Is this the start of another bank run? Will this kill the Treasury market? Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

About Norinchukin Bank
https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/about/

Norinchukin Financial Summary Fiscal Year 2023
https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/ir/results/pdf/cap_results2023_04_02.pdf

Bloomberg Echoes of 2009 Crisis Thrust Japanese Bank Norinchukin Back Into Spotlight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/japan-s-bank-for-farmers-and-fishermen-returns-to-spotlight-for-overseas-losses

Bloomberg Norinchukin Bank to Sell $63 Billion of Sovereign Bonds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-18/norinchukin-bank-to-sell-63-billion-of-bonds-to-stem-losses

Bloomberg A $1.3 Trillion Fund Pool for Junk-Rated US Firms Has Unlikely Lifeline: Japan's Banks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/the-1-3-trillion-clo-market-grows-more-dependent-on-japan-banks

FRBNY Standing Repo Facility Approved Counterparties
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/srflist-231201

CBO Budget Update June 2024
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/60039-Outlook-2024.pdf

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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New Data is Screaming a Full Blown Recession is Confirmed

19 juni 2024 · 16 min

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The data continues to pour in showing US consumers have indeed hit the wall. Spending is down according to a variety of sources, including the latest update on retail sales for May. There is also a growing body of evidence indicating there is more weakness to come starting with summer vacations. All this indicates the chances of full-blown recession are rising sharply. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNN Evidence is mounting that the American shopper is cutting back
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/18/economy/us-retail-sales-may/index.html

McKinsey & Company An update on US consumer sentiment: Are consumers on the cusp of a shift?
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer

Deloitte Summer Travel Survey 2024
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/articles/us187281_cic_summer-travel/DI_2024-summer-travel.pdf

Federal Reserve Beige Book May 29, 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240529.pdf

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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Americans Confidence in the Economy is Declining RAPIDLY

17 juni 2024 · 20 min

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Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corporate warnings. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

FRB Chair Jay Powell Press Conference June 12, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqaxWf7gsQA
Transcript:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240612.pdf

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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China's Housing Market is Starting to Crack Rapidly (What You Need To Know)

17 juni 2024 · 19 min

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Housing prices in China plunged in May, accelerating sharply after April's big drop indicating the situation in the real estate market is getting closer to becoming disorderly. There will be fallout across the world should that happen, as there already is across China's economy as the latest data also showed. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Needed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-17/world-economy-latest-china-property-sector-plunge-needs-more-support

China's NBS Situation in Real Estate
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202406/t20240617_1954711.html

Bloomberg China Steps Up Warning on Relentless Bond-Buying Frenzy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-17/china-steps-up-warnings-on-relentless-bond-buying-frenzy

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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This is the WORST Case Scenario for the Global Economy (dollar up, rates down)

16 juni 2024 · 19 min

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Conventional 'wisdom' says that when US$ interest rates go down the dollar goes down with them. Yet, it hasn't been uncommon to find Treasury yields falling as the dollar's exchange value jumps. When that has happened, nothing good comes from it. We're starting to see what looks to be that scenario setting up right now. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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The Jobs Market is on the Brink

14 juni 2024 · 19 min

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Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.
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I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the FOMC's hawkish dots.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Jay Powell's Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZE5tF_IMU

CNBC Quotes from Jay Powell Press Conference
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-june-fed-rate-decision.html

Politico Biden’s economy: Good metrics, bad vibes, few levers
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/07/biden-has-an-economic-story-to-tell-and-yet-00162338

Guardian Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden

BLS Business Employment Dynamics Summary
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htm

Table 4'
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t04.htm

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Walgreens Sends Stark Warning About Consumer Behavior (Confirming CPI)

13 juni 2024 · 18 min

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Walgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today's May CPI completely backs up everything we've been seeing.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Walgreens Walgreens Introduces Summer of Savings
https://www.walgreensbootsalliance.com/news-media/press-releases/2024/walgreens-introduces-summer-savings

Quartz Amazon, Walmart, and Big Retail’s race to cut prices
https://qz.com/target-walmart-amazon-walgreens-price-cuts-consumers-1851507920

Bloomberg Big Oil’s Blockbuster $114 Billion Investor Payout Is Most Ever
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/big-oil-pays-out-record-114-billion-in-share-buybacks-and-dividends

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Did Europe Just Cut Rates to Rig the Election (is the fed next?!)

12 juni 2024 · 19 min

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Last week's ECB rate cut was...odd. Sure, officials had said for months they were going to do it. Yet, the conditions that would have to be met were not. Policymakers went ahead anyway and this past weekend's developments are a big Big Picture reason why. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Italy’s Tajani Calls for Quick Second ECB Cut After June Move
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/italy-s-tajani-calls-for-quick-second-ecb-cut-after-june-move

The Times Back me for low interest rates, Rishi Sunak tells voters
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rishi-sunak-tories-interest-rates-general-election-962mpcmjx

AP UK inflation lowest in 3 years. Prime Minister Sunak makes it a focus in election call for July 4
https://apnews.com/article/britain-economy-inflation-interest-rates-090db19af939b9c532da1fb15ab40a0a

LeMonde Moody's warns that France's snap election could lower credit rating
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/06/11/moody-s-warns-that-french-snap-election-could-lower-credit-rating_6674498_7.html#

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This Only Happens When We Are Currently in a Recession

11 juni 2024 · 19 min

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Consumer credit has historically been a solid recession signal, particularly how consumers alter their usage of credit cards. Some of that by choice, for many it is the bank's. Either way, when this happens it is more compelling evidence backing the rise in the unemployment rate.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

September 2008 FOMC Transcript
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080916meeting.pdf

March 2001 FOMC Transcript
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20010320meeting.pdf

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The New American Dream...

10 juni 2024 · 19 min

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Roaring Kitty is not the problem, nor is Gamestop the company and its stock. All are symptoms of a degraded model that increasingly rewards all the wrong behaviors. Stocks have become lottery tickets, the pie-in-the-sky way out for way too many Americans otherwise trapped in a real economy that continues to leave them behind - as the latest employment report proves. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Roaring Kitty Livestream 6/7/2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1prSyyIco0&t=658s

The Hill GameStop shares plunge, halted during Roaring Kitty livestream
https://thehill.com/business/4710147-gamestop-shares-trading-roaring-kitty-livestream-meme-stock/

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This Has NEVER Happened Before

9 juni 2024 · 17 min

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This has never happened before. Sure, the payroll data and CPS series have diverged before but this is something entirely new. The fact that it runs contrary to decades of history makes our determination rather easy and simple: the labor market noose is tightening. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Big US Job Gains Is Out of Sync With Recent Weaker Economic Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-07/us-employment-report-for-may

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European Central Bank Just Cut Rates! (Everything You Need To Know)

7 juni 2024 · 20 min

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After two years unequivocally stating "inflation" was the world's biggest threat and crisis, and that nothing short of full victory would suffice, now all of a sudden Europe (and Canada) is changing it up, cutting rates even as price estimates remain well short of their standard while also appearing to be stuck that way. What is really going on here? Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

ECB Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2024/html/ecb.is240606~d32cd6cc8a.en.html

Bank of Canada Rate Cut Announcement
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-policy-rate-announcement-june-2024/

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The Labor Market is Starting to Crack

6 juni 2024 · 20 min

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More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

ADP National Employment
https://adpemploymentreport.com/

ADP Pay Insights
https://payinsights.adp.com/?_ga=2.165121663.1500609015.1717601960-340309474.1717601960

BLS QCEW Overview
https://www.bls.gov/cew/overview.htm

BLS QCEW
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.nr0.htm

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This is a REALLY Bad Sign For the Economy

5 juni 2024 · 19 min

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As more weak data pours in on the US economy, the more clarity it offers on the future path of ST interest rates. As that clears up, market rates are moving lower. But why? Mainstream theory demands we consider rates as entirely supply or demand factors (like QE). Yet, the past couple years have thoroughly disproven the idea. Rates are going lower because that's where and what the fundamentals are. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Majority of Middle-Class Americans Say They Struggle Financially
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/two-thirds-of-middle-class-americans-face-hardship-in-poll?srnd=economics-v2

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This ONLY happens When Sh*t is Hitting The Fan

4 juni 2024 · 19 min

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A rare warning strikes the gasoline market in another confirmation of economic weakness, one primary factor which forced OPEC this past weekend to extend its production restrictions. On top of those, big changes to US income estimates further corroborating the deterioration, as did a surprise drop in one of the more critical sentiment signals. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Reuters Weak US gasoline demand compounds pressure on oil ahead of OPEC+ meet
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/weak-us-gasoline-demand-compounds-pressure-oil-ahead-opec-meet-2024-05-31/

Nikkei OPEC+ extends deep oil production cuts into 2025
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/OPEC-extends-deep-oil-production-cuts-into-2025

ISM Manufacturing May 2024
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/may/

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GDP Revised Sharply Lower – Here’s What That Means

3 juni 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

Weak economic results continue to roll in, matching other sources of information about the US economy. From the Federal Reserve's own account and data to more corporate reports. They all have one thing - and one word - in common. GDP revisions plus the first update on the state of GDI and its bigtime mismatch. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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You Won't Believe What China is Doing

2 juni 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

Tensions are rising. Aggressive actions are becoming commonplace. This isn't just sabre-rattling and posturing as war is a real possibility. It's not difficult to see why, at least what some of the motivation is. China's central bank is publicly discussing even more highly unusual steps to try to reign in the unfolding financial and economic backlash which was just confirmed by even more data. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg US Commander Warns China Is Fast Becoming More Aggressive in Region
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-23/us-commander-warns-china-is-fast-becoming-more-aggressive-in-region

Bloomberg Xi’s Cryptic Bond Comments Hint at PBOC Becoming More Like Fed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/xi-s-cryptic-bond-comments-hint-at-pboc-becoming-more-like-fed

CNBC Philippine president says killing of a Filipino in South China Sea clash would be ‘very close’ to act of war
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/31/ferdinand-marcos-jr-philippine-president-talks-red-lines-in-south-china-sea.html

Bloomberg Marcos Swipes at China, Vowing Not to Yield in Disputed Sea
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/marcos-swipes-at-beijing-in-vow-to-not-yield-in-south-china-sea

Bloomberg China Ramps Up Warning on Bond Frenzy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/china-ramps-up-warning-on-bond-frenzy-with-pboc-selling-in-focus

Dow Jones Chinese State Media Hint at Possible PBOC Bond Selling
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202405311908/chinese-state-media-hint-at-possible-pboc-bond-selling

Nikkei Asia Foreign direct investment in China falls to 30-year low
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Foreign-direct-investment-in-China-falls-to-30-year-low

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Sales Force Issues Stark Warning to Businesses

31 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

More corporate mayhem brought on by the "uncertain market environment." Stocks of both Salesforce and Kohl's were hammered today as each company demonstrates in their own way just what the updated GDP numbers suggest. That latter data report also includes GDI which is almost certainly closer to the real economy all these other sources are projecting. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Salesforce shares tumble 20%, on pace for worst day since 2004
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/salesforce-stock-fall-earnings-revenue-miss.html

Bloomberg Salesforce Shares Plunge by Most Since 2008 After Weak Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/salesforce-gives-weak-sales-outlook-with-slowdown-fears-growing

CNBC Kohl’s stock plummets 25% after massive earnings miss
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/kohls-kss-earnings-q1-2024.html

Kohl's Kohl's Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Results
https://investors.kohls.com/news-releases/news-details/2024/Kohls-Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024-Financial-Results/default.aspx

BEA Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)
https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits

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Commercial Real Estate Bust Hits Europe (BADLY)

30 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.' Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

ECB Commercial real estate and financial stability – new insights from the euro area credit register
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202210_4~0aa7d44e15.en.html

Reuters Explainer: European banks and their $1.5 trillion commercial property headache
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-banks-their-15-trillion-commercial-property-headache-2024-02-15/

S&P Global Investors expect surge in bad commercial real estate loans at European banks
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/investors-expect-surge-in-bad-commercial-real-estate-loans-at-european-banks-81618608

FitchRatings Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Office
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024

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“Buy Now Pay Later” Issues Stark Warning to the Economy

29 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

nerdwallet 2024 State of Consumer Credit Report
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/credit-cards/2024-consumer-credit-report

CNBC 25% of consumers recently used a buy now, pay later loan, report finds. What to know as they become popular
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/buy-now-pay-later-loans-are-second-only-to-credit-cards-in-popularity.html

FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

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Why Central Bankers are FORCED to Lie

28 mei 2024 · 20 min

Afspelen

What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who came up with it no longer want to be the very purveyors of misinformation. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

George DeMartino Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context=peri_workingpapers

DeLong & Summers How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1988/06/1988b_bpea_delong_summers_mankiw_romer.pdf

Brad DeLong Greater Depression
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/j--bradford-delong-argues-that-it-is-time-to-call-what-is-happening-in-europe-and-the-us-by-its-true-name

Bank of England Ben Bernanke to lead review into forecasting at Bank of England
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2023/july/ben-bernanke-to-lead-review-into-forecasting-at-bank-of-england

Bank of England Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a review
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/independent-evaluation-office/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review

Mervyn King Per Jacobsson Lecture: The World Turned Upside Down: Economic Policy in Turbulent Times
https://meetings.imf.org/en/2019/Annual/Schedule/2019/10/19/imf-seminar-per-jacobsson

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Wow, You Can Make This Up...

27 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

It doesn't help that policymakers and Economists quite openly admit they will and even should lie to you about the state of the economy. But to go so far as to call legitimate and widely-shared criticism misinformation is taking this too far. The reason it is going this way is just how difficult the situation has become, which brings us back to the first point: who's actually telling the truth? Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context=peri_workingpapers

FoxNews Democrat claiming 'inflation rates are down' interrupted by higher than expected inflation report
https://www.foxnews.com/media/democrat-claiming-inflation-rates-down-interrupted-higher-expected-inflation-report

The Undecideds What Are Undecided Voters Really Thinking?
https://markhalperin.substack.com/p/what-are-undecided-voters-really

Bloomberg Fed’s Bostic Says Policy Is Taking Longer to Slow Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/fed-s-bostic-says-policy-is-taking-longer-to-slow-growth

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Oh Sh*t, Commercial Real Estate CLO Loans Are Collapsing

26 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg A Really Bad Sign for Commercial Real Estate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-23/bloomberg-evening-briefing-a-really-bad-sign-for-commercial-real-estate

Bloomberg Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Turns to Survival Mode as Real Estate Pain Lingers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/starwood-reit-sets-drastic-redemption-limits-on-liquidity-crunch

Bloomberg Lenders Race to Buy Back Delinquent Multifamily Mortgage Loans
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/jpmorgan-says-commercial-real-estate-clo-loan-buyouts-are-set-to-reach-a-record

Fitch Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Office
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024

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China's Latest Move Has Governments Freaking Out

24 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices? Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meetings
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2363

Reuters Yellen wants G7 'wall of opposition' to China's excess industrial capacity
https://www.reuters.com/markets/yellen-says-g7-discuss-responses-chinas-excess-industrial-capacity-2024-05-23/

Treasury Secretary Yellen on PBS
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-yellen-on-why-biden-is-targeting-chinese-manufacturing-with-new-tariffs

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Target Just Confirmed EVERYTHING

23 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Target Corp First Quarter Earnings
https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-corporation-reports-first-quarter-earnings

Target Corp Press Release Lowering Prices
https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-will-help-consumers-save-big-by-lowering-prices-on-5,000-frequently-shopped-items

CNBC Target shares tumble 10% as consumers buy fewer groceries and home goods
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-tgt-q1-2024-earnings.html

BLS New Tenant Rent Index
https://www.bls.gov/pir/new-tenant-rent.htm

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The Standard of Living Decline in America is Accelerating (here’s why)

22 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s). Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Boston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Living
https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/ledger/winter2004/livstand.pdf

CDC Drug Overdose Deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db491.htm

CDC Birth Stats
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm

CDC Birth Rates
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/Brth.pdf

Christopher Waller Little by Little, Progress Seems to be Resuming.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240521a.htm

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Apple Issues Stark Warning to the Economy

21 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Apple Second Quarter Earnings
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/

CNBC Apple announces largest-ever $110 billion share buyback as iPhone sales drop 10%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/apple-aapl-earnings-report-q2-2024.htm

CNBC Red Lobster files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/red-lobster-bankruptcy.html

CNBC Home Depot misses on revenue, as high interest rates hurt sales
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/home-depot-hd-q1-2024-earnings-.html

CNBC Are consumers pulling back on spending? It depends on which CEO you ask
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/consumer-pullback-ceos.html

Bloomberg What Is Buy Now, Pay Later? How It Works and the Hidden Risks You Should Know
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/what-is-buy-now-pay-later-how-bnpl-plans-work

Bloomberg Treat Buy Now, Pay Later Loans Like Real Debt
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-14/treat-klarna-affirm-buy-now-pay-later-loans-like-real-debt

Bloomberg Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/-buy-now-pay-later-has-americans-racking-up-phantom-debt

Flex
https://help.getflex.com/hc/en-us/sections/360004885954-Get-Started

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Walmart is Sending a MAJOR Warning to the Economy

20 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

Business at Walmart is brisk these days...and that's a big problem. The better things go for the company especially at the grocery department the worse you know it is in the economy. And the big retailer just put up robust results because it isn't just struggling Americans coming in to shop, Walmart is now getting tons of business from high-income earners, too, because now they're struggling. Not exactly the soft landing signal we'd hoped. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

NY Post Wealthier customers flock to Walmart to boost retailer’s sales in strong Q1 earnings
https://nypost.com/2024/05/16/business/wealthier-customer-flock-to-walmart-to-boost-retailers-sales-in-strong-q1-earnings/

Bloomberg Why We Can't Shake the Vibecession, Even in the Face of Good News
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-16/high-prices-and-phantom-debt-why-we-can-t-shake-the-vibecession

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China Dumping Record Amounts of Treasures (Here's Why)

19 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

The Chinese have sold a record amount of US Treasuries. Again. Most mainstream explanations point to political motives including many asserting an intentional act to move away from the dollar. The actual reason is indeed monetary but not at all in that way. The important immediate implications tell us a lot about the conditions for the globally synchronized economy. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-16/china-sells-record-sum-of-us-debt-amid-signs-of-diversification

CNN China has teased how it might fix its property crisis. Markets are loving it
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/business/china-property-crisis-unsold-homes-hnk-intl/index.html

China NBS Basic situation of the national real estate market from January to April 2024
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202405/t20240517_1955760.html

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A Globally Systemic Central Bank Is Hiking Rates In A Recession

17 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal Run Extends to Three Quarters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/japan-s-economy-contracts-as-consumers-companies-cut-spending

Reuters Japan's economy skids, clouding BOJ's rate hike plans
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-gdp-contracts-complicating-bojs-rate-hike-plans-2024-05-16/

Reuters Japan's finmin says 'speculative' moves in currency market impacting yen
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japans-finance-minister-sees-speculative-moves-currency-market-2024-04-01/

Investing.com Japan GDP shrinks more than expected in Q1 as consumption slows
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japan-gdp-shrinks-more-than-expected-in-q1-as-consumption-slows-3443154

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"The Most Consequential Piece of Economic Data in History"

16 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

They called it the most important economic update in living memory, holding the key to everything from inflation to economy and interest rates. When it came out, it wasn't what everyone thought and even more interesting those numbers ended up being overshadowed by another set alarmingly consistent with everything else we've been seeing lately. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

BLS April US CPI press release
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

Bloomberg Here Are the Key Takeaways From US CPI Report for April
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-april-2024-key-takeaways-on-inflation-core-measure

Bloomberg US Retail Sales Stall After Downward Revisions in Prior Months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-retail-sales-stall-after-downward-revisions-in-prior-months

CNN The backbone of America’s economy was just dealt a serious blow
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/economy/us-retail-sales-april/index.html

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Indeed Gives Massive Warning Towards Job Market

15 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Indeed Message from CEO
https://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2

FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html

Liberty Street Economics Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/delinquency-is-increasingly-in-the-cards-for-maxed-out-borrowers/

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The Worst Banking Data on Chinese Record

14 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

NYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of Chinese Imports
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/politics/biden-china-imports.html

WSJ China Hints at New Growth Push as it Warns of Rising Uncertainties
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-calls-long-delayed-policy-meeting-warning-of-rising-uncertainties-032fb571

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History Is Repeating?!

13 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

There is a resurgence underway not from consumer prices as everyone thinks, instead the use of the term "stagflation." This is really nothing more than the shift in narrative attempting to incorporate more visible economic weakness while still keeping it the idea "inflation." But as the former takes the forefront, the latter will continue to fade until what's left isn't even stagnation. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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The Biggest Crash in 46 Years Sending MASSIVE Job Safety Warning

12 mei 2024 · 20 min

Afspelen

Another critical economic measures shows big negative changes and they aren't "inflation" problems. It's not just that American consumers are cracking, the consistent theme which keeps coming up over and over is jobs. The US labor market has been stuck in half a recession already, is this now the other half? Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

UofM Surveys of Consumers
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

CNBC Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey shows
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-as-inflation-fears-surge-closely-watched-survey-shows.html

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Ikea Gives Massive Warning Towards Human Behavior

10 mei 2024 · 20 min

Afspelen

The one news article in the media said it all; more companies are now cutting their prices despite inflation. Except, no, it isn't in spite of other price changes, instead in response to them. The economy isn't inflationary, it is weak and getting weaker. Eye opening new data is alarmingly consistent with the price cuts. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNN Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinked
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/business/retailers-cutting-prices/index.html

Michaels Lowers Prices on Thousands of Arts, Crafts and DIY Items
https://www.michaelspressroom.com/news/detail/2293/michaels-lowers-prices-on-thousands-of-arts-crafts-and-diy

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The Japanese Yen Is Failing (what this means for the world)

9 mei 2024 · 19 min

Afspelen

Japan's government conducted three (unconfirmed) major currency interventions in less than a week. Already JPY is falling almost like they never happened. It's the dollar that's the matter because what's the matter isn't just Japan and like a lot of things energy is the key. As the Japanese understand all too well, energy means dollars. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg BOJ’s Ueda Ramps Up Yen Warnings While Traders Keep Selling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/boj-s-ueda-tweaks-weak-yen-remarks-in-possible-hint-of-rate-hike

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BREAKING: 92 Year Old Trucking Company Goes Bankrupt

7 mei 2024 · 18 min

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FreightWaves Texas’ Arnold Transportation acquired by Canada’s Pride Group Logistics
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/texas-arnold-transportation-acquired-by-canadas-pride-group-logistics Lees meer

Global NewsWire Pride Group Logistics Expands U.S. Presence With the Acquisition of Arnold Transportation Services, Inc.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/02/01/2377007/0/en/Pride-Group-Logistics-Expands-U-S-Presence-With-the-Acquisition-of-Arnold-Transportation-Services-Inc.html

FreightWaves 92-year-old Texas trucking company files for bankruptcy liquidation
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/92-year-old-texas-trucking-company-files-for-bankruptcy-liquidation

Investopedia Etsy Stock Dives as Retailer Warns of 'Challenging Environment' for Consumer Spending
https://www.investopedia.com/etsy-q1-2024-earnings-weak-consumer-spending-8642325

ISM Services April 2024
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/april/

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

“Desperate Struggles” in the Job Market

6 mei 2024 · 18 min

Afspelen

The first disappointment from payrolls in what seems like forever is only the start. It follows a number of increasingly ugly developments including a solid shocker from the US services sector - and its own measure of employment. In addition to reviewing the latest updates, Jeff and Steve also take apart the "dovish" QT myth that has popped up. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU