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Critical Data is Predicting 1-2% Interest Rates Are Coming, SOON
5 mei 2024 · 24 min
What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Communism is Infiltrating The World BECAUSE of Economics
3 mei 2024 · 19 min
We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement truly is in the past tense. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
the Atlantic Why the Phrase 'Late Capitalism' Is Suddenly Everywhere
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/late-capitalism/524943/QUB Law Society Demystifying late stage capitalism on both a global and national level: the ball and chain of a 21st century free market economy
https://www.theverdictonline.org/post/demystifying-late-stage-capitalism-on-both-a-global-and-national-level-the-ball-and-chain-of-a-21stAP Archive CAN973 FILE / ARCHIVE FOOTAGE OF VLADIMIR LENIN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IJbNwt9J00RCM July 10, 2020 Socialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been Growth
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/07/10/socialism_would_have_been_easy_to_discredit_had_there_been_growth_498699.htmlThe Atlantic 26 Years of Growth: Shanghai Then and Now
https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/NYT Nov 14, 1939
https://www.nytimes.com/1939/11/14/archives/browder-assails-pope-at-rally-here-he-tells-22000-at-the-garden.htmlTime Magazine May 30, 1938
https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19380530,00.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Jobs Are No longer Hiring
2 mei 2024 · 17 min
Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Playback May 1, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvAUSA Today
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/07/job-market-cooling-despite-high-employment-numbers/72846912007/
Behind the rosy job numbers, Americans are struggling to find workBloomberg Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/starbucks-sbux-sales-slump-as-customers-pull-back-across-the-world?srnd=allBloomberg KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/kfc-owner-s-sales-fall-for-first-time-since-2020-as-weakness-spreadsISM Manufacturing Press Release
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Consumer Confidence Is TANKING ( what this means)
1 mei 2024 · 20 min
Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
the Conference Board Consumer Confidence
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidenceTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2404#tab-commentshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Another Bank Just Failed, How Many More Will Come?!
30 april 2024 · 20 min
The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FDIC Press Release
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-depositsRepublic First's last SEC filing
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000834285/6c29a651-35e8-48f3-8803-6b7376b1ab7f.pdfRepublic First's last posted balance sheet
https://investors.myrepublicbank.com/financial-info/balance-sheet/default.aspxBloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bids
FDIC Is Approaching Potential Buyers of Republic First
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/fdic-is-said-to-approach-potential-buyers-of-republic-firstBloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bids
FDIC Sought Buyers for Republic First Before Investor Deal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/fdic-sought-buyers-for-republic-first-before-investor-dealhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
This Data Shows The State Of The U.S. Economy
29 april 2024 · 18 min
This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
S&P Global April 2024 flash PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Japanese Yen PLUNGING, Worrying Governments Around The World
28 april 2024 · 21 min
It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate Unchanged
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-26/yen-drops-to-fresh-34-year-low-as-boj-keeps-key-rate-unchangedTrilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statement
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2264FOMC Transcript February 1998
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Bombshell GDP Report Confirms Everything
26 april 2024 · 17 min
GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Oh Sh*t, The Government Just Spent $11 TRILLION
25 april 2024 · 18 min
Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Oil Prices Are CRUSHING The Economy (What You Need To Know)
24 april 2024 · 18 min
Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917
Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdfBloomberg China Is Front and Center of Gold’s Record-Breaking Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-21/china-is-front-and-center-of-gold-s-record-breaking-rallyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
BREAKING: Fed’s Financial Stability Report Just Dropped (What You Need To Know)
23 april 2024 · 19 min
The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
They Can't Hide It Anymore
22 april 2024 · 19 min
There is a tendency to conflate the behavior of consumer prices with the condition of the economy. With the current mania over recent CPIs in full bloom, fears extend into the real economy. Is it really "too hot?" Recent data from the Federal Reserve itself actually helps separate the facts from the misperceptions. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
Beige Book April 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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100% Proof Rate Hikes DON'T Work
21 april 2024 · 19 min
The world is starting to get the idea that rate hikes are not all they're cracked up to be. Yet, we're forced to focus endlessly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Why? The answer is really simple. More importantly, what's really going on in the economy? That answer is also pretty simple, too. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jay Powell Jackson Hole August 2023 Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a.htmFOMC Transcript July 2014
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20140730meeting.pdfBen Bernanke Jan 2009 The Crisis and the Policy Response
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090113a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Proof The Fed is FLAT Out Lying to You
19 april 2024 · 18 min
The Fed is all over the place, flip-flopping sometimes within a matter of weeks. They're confident about inflation then they're not. What's the real reason for so much back and forth, the obvious insecurity? It's the story no one really knows and what actually ties the current day with the past Great Inflation. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CSPAN William Proxmire
https://www.c-span.org/video/?322377-1/political-career-senator-william-proxmirehttps://www.c-span.org/video/?39834-1/government-waste
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4704392/sen-william-proxmire
Hutchinson v Proxmire
https://www.oyez.org/cases/1978/78-680Federal Reserve Memo Nov 6, 1973 & letter from Arthur Burns to Senator Proxmire
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/burns/Burns_19731106.pdfNYT Dec 2, 1975 Proxmire Would Curtail Banks
https://www.nytimes.com/1975/12/02/archives/proxmire-would-curtail-banks.htmlFOMC Transcript July 1981
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
New Housing Data Down 15% In One MONTH!
18 april 2024 · 16 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerUpdates from the US housing and energy sectors heavily rebuff the idea reflation. There is supposed to be resurgent demand when new data shows the opposite, including a shocking crash in one critical segment. Not only do they contradict reflation, these also expose the CPI.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Rent.com The Rent Report April 2024
https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Has The Government Debt Crisis Finally Started?
17 april 2024 · 18 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerUST yields are up somewhat sharply since early April, raising questions as to why that is. High on the public list of suspects is a government bond crisis for obvious Uncle Sam insanity reasons. Others point to possible reflation in higher yields. We do have a solid, historically validated answer for Treasuries, but it's written in German.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Oh Sh*t, The Narrative has COMPLETELY flipped
16 april 2024 · 19 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerHigher (slightly) interest rates and a couple rising commodities has brought back the reflation trade. For those to be valid, there would have to be widespread confirmation that a meaningful pickup in demand is brewing. Instead, there are huge holes including the most critical signal of them all.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Mining.com Global copper smelters less active after China’s planned output cuts
https://www.mining.com/web/global-copper-smelters-less-active-after-chinas-planned-output-cuts/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Chinese Banking System is COLLAPSING
15 april 2024 · 17 min
Is the Great Migration about to get worse? The answer starts in China where just the week the country already reported a sharp fall in consumer prices. CNY is down and so are government bond yields there. The Chinese also said the economy suffered a big drop in exports and then suffered a record low growth rate for lending. Banking woes, trade setbacks, further declines in growth and inflation expectations. The rest of the world is going to feel the effects. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
S&P Global Ratings
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/231127-economic-research-economic-outlook-emerging-markets-q1-2024-challenging-global-conditions-will-constrain-gr-12923458Fitch Ratings Fitch Revises Outlook on China to Negative; Affirms at 'A+'
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-outlook-on-china-to-negative-affirms-at-a-09-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Fed Reports "People Now Unable to Pay Off Credit Card Debt"
14 april 2024 · 18 min
The economy is doing just fine according to many statistics, but according to most people it is anything but. Those aren't just idle malcontents, either. A fundamental fact of the current state of the world is that it will have to reckon for that economic pain and substantial loss. Many now merely believe that worst is behind is, but what if it is still lying just ahead? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
FRB Philadelphia Q4 2023 Insights Report
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/2023-q4-large-bankJP Morgan Chase Q1 2024 earnings
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/1st-quarter/6678012b-9242-492b-acd0-1473eabade3c.pdfCitigroup Q1 2024 earnings
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Earnings/Q12024/2024prq1.pdfWells Fargo Q1 2024 earnings
https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/earnings/first-quarter-2024-earnings.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China's Crisis Is Sending A Warning To The World
12 april 2024 · 18 min
Yesterday's US CPI reignited the fierce debate over a possibly sticky inflation future. China just ended it by reminding the world of its stubborn deflationary present with the third largest monthly CPI drop in the last twenty years. Producer prices also decline which is a solidly disinflationary signal for China and the world regardless of the latest consumer price numbers from elsewhere. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
China's NBS Consumer prices press release
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240411_1954446.htmlChina's NBS Producer prices press release
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240411_1954447.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
New CPI Numbers Shock The Market! (Everything You Need To Know)
11 april 2024 · 19 min
Another CPI comes in higher than expected. This isn't some harbinger of an impending price spiral, just the regular fluctuations in consumer prices driven largely by oil. It has stirred up inflation fears anyway in large part because it seems as if the CPI and especially the core rate is now stuck at a structurally higher rate. History cautions when making those assumptions. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Goldman Sachs Makes MASSIVE Bet On Lower Interests Rates
10 april 2024 · 18 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerHawkish policymakers, oil prices, higher for longer all over the media. Why are banks, not just central banks, already cutting rates? Contrary to what you hear in the mainstream, policymakers aren't actually all that hawkish. More importantly, global markets are pricing more assertively for fragility not soft landing.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Goldman’s Marcus Frontruns Fed With Rate Cut on Savings Account
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/goldman-s-marcus-frontruns-fed-with-rate-cut-on-savings-accountBloomberg State Street Sees Half-Point Fed Rate Cut as Soon as June
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/state-street-sees-half-point-fed-rate-cut-as-soon-as-juneBloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Floats Possibility of No Rate Cuts This Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/fed-s-kashkari-floats-possibility-of-no-rate-cuts-this-yearBloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Sees Two Rate Cuts in 2024, Potentially Just One
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/fed-s-kashkari-sees-two-rate-cuts-in-2024-potentially-just-oneReuters Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/inverted-yield-curve-no-longer-reliable-recession-flag-strategists-say-2024-03-12/NFIB March 2024 report
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Oil Is About To Break The Economy
9 april 2024 · 19 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerWhat if gold and oil are actually trading on the same outcome? Despite popular misconceptions, a non-economic oil shock like the one we're currently experiencing is NOT inflationary. On the contrary, history shows it will almost certainly be disinflationary because of the negative impact it has on the economy. And if that impact is negative enough, that will lead to sharply lower interest rates - the very factor driving gold to all-time highs.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg The Gold Market Hunts for Answers Behind Bullion’s Sudden Surge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-07/the-gold-market-hunts-for-answers-behind-bullion-s-sudden-surge?fromMostRead=trueBernanke, Gertler, Stock Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1997/01/1997a_bpea_bernanke_gertler_watson_sims_friedman.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Oil inflation Fears Going Viral (Everything You Need to Know)
8 april 2024 · 18 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerOil is up sharply as fears over a wider conflict in the Middle East continue to rise. Quite predictably, this has raised widespread concerns over renewed "inflation." But we just did this six months ago and that example shows what we should expect today and going forward.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
We Need to Talk About the Job Market Data ASAP
7 april 2024 · 18 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerYet another blowout payroll number from the government. Even though the BLS's "other" employment estimates managed a sharp rebound on the month, the difference between the two has become intolerable. How do we know which one might be closer to reality? We make a bunch of comparisons to see which way the weight of evidence falls.
Also, every month has 28 days.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
It's Over: China's Currency Has Never Done This Before
5 april 2024 · 19 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerChina's currency trading was wild yesterday, CNY moving just a few pips above the PBOC's daily limit. But then, the country closed down for the rest of this week leaving the whole world hanging as to what might happen next. Will yuan breach the daily band for the first time ever? Might the central bank relent like it usually does? More important than those, what does all this mean? The simplest "equation" in all economics holds the answer.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Japan Times Ex-finance official who warned of Japan's 2022 yen intervention sounds alarm
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/04/03/markets/former-currency-chief-warns-of-yen-intervention/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Things Are Escalating, Quickly...
4 april 2024 · 16 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerMonday's "strong" ISM manufacturing data sparked a whirlwind of inflation fear(mongering). Today's far more important and weak ISM non-manufacturing data barely took any notice. Why is that? The answer is obvious even though the latter series on services is far more important for the overall economy especially since these estimates for it are highly correlated with so many other critical variables.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg June Fed Rate-Cut Odds Dip Below 50% After Strong ISM Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/treasury-yields-extend-climb-after-strong-ism-factory-gaugeshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
We Need to Talk About the Bond Market Immediately
3 april 2024 · 18 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerTo hear everyone tell it, bond yields are surging. Losses in the marketplace are "piling up" allegedly because hawkish central bankers will be fighting inflation a lot longer than previously hoped since the economy is so insatiably red hot. Except, none of that is true; starting with bond yields. And we can check our work, too, in a way that actually touches the real world.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Bond Market Sees Fewer Rate Cuts Than Fed, Deepening Losses
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/markets-back-to-seeing-fewer-rate-cuts-than-the-federal-reserveBloomberg Fed’s Daly Says Three Rate Cuts Is Reasonable Baseline for 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/fed-s-daly-says-three-rate-cuts-is-reasonable-baseline-for-2024?srnd=fixed-incomehttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Gold Surges To All-Time Highs (Everything You Need to Know)
2 april 2024 · 19 min
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerGold continues to soar, hitting almost as many record highs as stocks. And that's a problem because unlike stocks gold tends to be a useful indicator and warning sign. There are three theories as to what's behind the golden surge. Here we examine the evidence and consistency of all three.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRB Chair Jerome Powell Testimony to Senate Banking Committee March 7, 2024
https://www.c-span.org/video/?533955-1/federal-reserve-chair-testifies-monetary-policy-economyCommercialEdge March 2024 Office Report
https://www.commercialedge.com/blog/national-office-report/https://www.eurodollar.university
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How Bank Reserves Affect Liquidity (Macro Alf)
1 april 2024 · 21 min
It is critical to understand what is happening in China first of all. The country is suffering from a confluence of longer-term structural imbalances butting up against near-term strategies ostensibly aimed at minimizing the fallout. The risks are complex though in broad terms pretty easy to sketch out. They include potential impacts on global liquidity, one of the most misunderstood topics in finance. Lees meer
If are interested in Alf’s Macro Investment Fund, drop him an email for information at this address: fund@themacrocompass.com
Alf’s Course: TheMacroCompass.substack.com
Other Courses: https://themacrocompass.org/courses/
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Alfonso Peccatiello
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
You Won't Believe What European Banks Are Doing
31 maart 2024 · 19 min
CHECK OUT EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Lees meerWhat is it with banks these days? Well, this time it may not be the bank themselves. According to the latest data from the ECB, European depositories are lending loads to non-banks over there. That's not a good sign and in this video you'll see why that is - and why it isn't just Europeans who should be seriously concerned.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Manual on MFI statistics
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.manualmfibalancesheetstatistics202402~8e4fc2ccca.en.pdfECB November 2023 Financial Stability Review
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Recession Is Here, And It's Worse Than You Think
29 maart 2024 · 21 min
We keep getting more and more recession confirmation. Soft data comes in ugly and is easily corroborated by hard estimates from a variety of sources. The only part missing is the layoffs. Where are they? Part of the answer comes from hoarding, though the more important piece is not what you might think. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Japan Is Now Threatening MAJOR Intervention Against The Dollar
28 maart 2024 · 18 min
The Japanese are really getting bothered by weakness in the yen. But where is it coming from, and what might be done about it? Officials in Tokyo are threatening to intervene again, but a review of past interventions shows not just the folly of any attempt, better yet some useful clues about what's really happening here. It isn't Japan. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Japan Amps Up Intervention Threat as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-27/yen-drops-to-lowest-since-1990-amid-intervention-speculationNYT Sept 1992 Agility Counts in Currency Chaos
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/17/business/market-place-agility-counts-in-currency-chaos.htmlJapan Ministry of Finance Foreign Exchange Operations
https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/international_policy/reference/feio/quarter/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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What Stage Of The Recession Are We In
27 maart 2024 · 20 min
As more signs of instability pile up around the world but also coming from inside the US. Those are evidence for the continuing downside to the supply shock, the same cycle, not a soft landing. What are the key differences? Employing a few critical datapoints it's easy to see how much of a divergence there already has been and what that likely means for the upcoming period. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Latest Banking Data PLUNGES At The Same Time China Did This
26 maart 2024 · 19 min
Something just hit the US banking system. Tons of cash gone from their balance sheet seemingly as they reallocate their assets. At the same time this is going on, the dollar has surged against primarily Asian currencies rocking those countries and leading to several government backlashes. Are these all related? The answer appears to be, yes. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Target Gives MASSIVE Warning Of Consumer Behavior
25 maart 2024 · 19 min
The bedrock assumption for a soft landing in the US is continued consumer spending. The economy around the world really needs Americans to keep spending at close to the same rate. Instead, more evidence is coming in that they are just out of gas. In addition to macro statistics, more retailers are confirming the downturn and no longer just those who sell to lower-income consumers. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Target Introduces New Brand, dealworthy, Featuring Low Prices on Everyday Basics
https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/02/target-introduces-new-brand,-dealworthy,-featuring-low-prices-on-everyday-basicshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
CLO Markets are on the Collapsing (liquidations starting)
24 maart 2024 · 21 min
It isn't prospective rate cuts, the downward bias in market interest rates comes from real risks in the global system. The biggest of those are US commercial real estate (CRE) and China. Key developments in both show that the situation is fragile and that difficulties are serious even if playing out mainly in the shadows. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Product
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/real-estate-pain-is-showing-up-in-collateralized-loan-obligations-closBloombergTV with Carson Block
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-19/carson-block-warms-to-blackstone-mortgage-trust-short-videoBloomberg Short Seller Block Says He’s Even ‘More Bearish’ on Blackstone Mortgage Trust
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/block-says-he-s-even-more-bearish-on-blackstone-mortgage-trustSCMP China Vanke secures US$194 million loan from Industrial Bank in brief respite for troubled property developer
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3256021/china-vanke-secures-us194-million-loan-industrial-bank-brief-respite-troubled-property-developerhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Swiss Central Bank Just Sent a Warning to the World
22 maart 2024 · 19 min
Few were expecting anything more than a few franc sales from the Swiss National Bank today. Instead, the SNB boldly cut its ST rate specifically because it knows what's coming from around the rest of the world. And that doesn't mean inflation in Switzerland or anywhere else. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment March 21, 2024
https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240321SNB Introductory remarks, news conferencehttps://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches-restricted/ref_20240321_tjnmslanmar
Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs
https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos_e/bulletin/Bulletin_En.aspx?kind=14&html=1&menu_id=6744&bull_id=16037ECB Combined monetary policy decisions and statement 7 March 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240307~8e06c79bf2.en.pdf?e86e578f1a99fdaa095a37dc4f1f6355https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Everything You Need to Know About The Fed Report
21 maart 2024 · 19 min
A wild FOMC meeting triggered by a rejiggering of the dots. Those don't really matter except as insight into how confused policymakers have become. Why are they confused? Rate hikes don't appear to be working, so they are having a hard time deciding what should happen next. Markets aren't so conflicted, only about the likeliest path for ST rates. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC March 2024 Policy Statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240320a1.pdfFOMC March 2024 Summary of Economic Projections
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20240320.pdfCSPAN: President Biden Campaign Remarks March 8, 2024
https://www.c-span.org/video/?534118-1/president-biden-delivers-campaign-remarks-philadelphiahttps://www.eurodollar.university
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It finally happened after 17 years… will they survive
20 maart 2024 · 20 min
Well, they did it. The Bank of Japan ended its NIRP and YCC, raising its call money rate for the first time in forever. That's not the issue. Why they did it is open for debate, one that right now is taking place across markets. It's not going well for the rate-hikers. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BoJ Statement March 19, 2024
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k240319a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Global Central Banks Are Meeting This Week (Here’s What You Need To Know)
19 maart 2024 · 23 min
The Fed. Japanese destiny. Down Under. The Old Lady, Mexico, Brazil, and the Czech Republic. And those are just the start. A ton of central banks are going to be deliberating just this week. And while their policies don't really mean much to the economy, they can impact markets in the short run while also providing some somewhat useful clues about where the world really stands. Here's what to look for as it unfolds. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Bank Term Funding Program Blows Up In Final Minutes...
18 maart 2024 · 18 min
The Fed shut down the BTFP, but just before it closed billions in loans were made to banks over the repeated objections of policymakers. Officials have been pushing depositories toward the Discount Window to the point even the FHLB system is dissuading its members from using its own advances as emergency liquidity. Yet, the last-minute BTFP indicates banks just aren't doing it with some substantial implications. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
FHFA FHLBank System at 100: Focus On the Future
https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/FHLBank-System-at-100-Report.pdfFHFA Fact Sheet
https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/PublicAffairsDocuments/FHLBank-System-at-100-Fact-Sheet.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Chinese banks CLOSING Loan Books Most On Record
17 maart 2024 · 20 min
China just held its National People's Congress amidst more economic and financial turmoil than at any time in its modern history. Two things quickly became clear: Xi Jinping continues to insulate himself politically from any potential fallout; his government has no idea what to be about it. The latest data from Chinese banks and the country's housing market highlight the gravity of the situation and how little policies are helping. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
People's Daily Graphic and Text Database
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2024-02/02/nw.D110000renmrb_20240202_3-03.htmChina State TV The Opening Meeting of the Second Session of the 14th NPC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL7iqyx-dBABloomberg China Vanke’s Dollar Bonds Signal Fears of Default Down the Road
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/china-vanke-s-dollar-bonds-signal-fears-of-default-down-the-roadBloomberg China Sets GDP Goal That Needs Policy Support ‘From All Fronts’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/china-s-gdp-growth-target-this-year-set-around-5-reuters-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Recession Just Hit Dollar Stores “People Can No Longer Afford to Shop”
14 maart 2024 · 17 min
More recession signals. We've got the major dollar store chains in the US closing stores and reporting troubling results about consumer behavior. Those are now backed up by hard evidence in the form of retail sales, which have been much worse than initial thought. Behind everything, the looming recession, is the fact oil prices are NOT inflation nor inflationary. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Dollar General Q4 2023 results
https://investor.dollargeneral.com/websites/dollargeneral/English/2120/us-press-release.html?airportNewsID=977d63ef-cf4e-4b0b-bd80-624b382724f6https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Oil Markets Are Sending A Warning To The World
13 maart 2024 · 19 min
Is "inflation" back? A big part of the answer to that question comes from the oil market, though not at all in the way you might think. A revisit of the 2008 crude oil bubble/shock to see what it can tell us about a lot more than consumer prices in 2024. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
OPEC March 2024 Announcement
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htmRemarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke October 21, 2004
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20041021/James D. Hamilton Brookings Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2009a_bpea_hamilton-1.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
If You Hear The Fed Mention 1995 Be On High Alert
11 maart 2024 · 18 min
As serious economic weakness begins to increasingly show itself, the Fed is going to pivot and thereby try to sell the public on lower rates as somehow being something positive. A small bit of economy insurance and nothing more. And they'll point to 1995 as for why. In reality, this is already nothing like thirty years ago. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Bank Term Funding Program Shut Down, What Happens Next
11 maart 2024 · 20 min
Today is the last day for new loans from the Fed's BTFP, and there is still $165 billion being borrowed from it. In fact, that balance increased just last week. What are the implications of the shutdown? We keep coming back to the same factor which was all over last March. And with CRE looming in the background, too. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The Recession Just Hit The Job Market
10 maart 2024 · 20 min
Evidence for US recession and labor market woes are getting much stronger. While everyone fixates on the growing absurdity of the payroll revisions, the CPS data threw up THREE very strong recession signals, each historically validated, showing this isn't a short-term fluctuation or narrow, isolated occurrence. Plus, a fourth signal that is entire consistent with those other three. Employment recession changes everything. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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The Most Important Financial Event Of The Last Century Is Here
9 maart 2024 · 27 min
Full Disclosure: Jeff has worked with Mr. Saxe as a trustee for a stablecoin project Ryne is the COO for. Lees meer
The mainstream image of cryptocurrencies is cowboys and charlatans playing around with technology that doesn't seem to have any practical use. Kids are getting rich - many going broke - on what can appear to be trivial functions. Reality couldn't be farther from the truth. As Ryne points out, one key problem is that those who are indeed making a good-faith effort at making something and making it work are losing at the narrative. Worse, the government is no help (no surprise). Even so, there is tremendous progress being made right now in turning these digital projects into useful, usable money.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
What Interest Rates Going Down Really Means For The World
8 maart 2024 · 20 min
China's 10-year government bond yield just reached a 20-year low. UST yields are moving down again. What does it all mean; more importantly why do we need to care? It isn't just the signal bond curves provide, it is just as much the lack of direct access to the information we truly need. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC Transcript February 1999
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19990203meeting.pdfBIS CGFS Papers No 65 US dollar funding: an international perspective
https://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs65.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU