Alle afleveringen van Eurodollar University – pagina 17 van 31

New Data Warns Major Layoffs Coming

7 maart 2024 · 18 min

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Evidence continues to show we're in half a recession already. There is a huge discrepancy between the "strong" US employment in the media and what's actually happening. Even mainstream sources are being forced to deal with how different the jobs market is to those actually experiencing it. These aren't isolated cases or stories, the data backing them up continues to pile up. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Economists say the labor market is strong — but job seekers don’t share that confidence. Here’s why
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/why-it-feels-so-hard-to-get-a-job-right-now.html

Insight Global
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unemployed-and-unmotivated-new-survey-finds-that-over-half-of-unemployed-americans-are-feeling-the-job-hunt-burnout-big-time-301909524.html

Reddit r/jobs
https://www.reddit.com/r/jobs/comments/16aetk9/the_job_market_is_awful_2023/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold Is Exploding To All Time Highs

6 maart 2024 · 19 min

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Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FRB Christopher Waller Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks on the Paper "Quantitative Tightening around the Globe: What Have We Learned?"
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htm

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China Is Getting Aggressively Sold (why this matters)

5 maart 2024 · 20 min

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It's bad enough that China's shakiest real estate firms are going to be creating big losses and not just for other Chinese financials. Now comes word the last remaining investment grade developer is rumored to be experiencing liquidity trouble, too. It is a sign of further progress - in the wrong direction. We need to understand what it means when Beijing is this impotent. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

The Digital Future Is Here (Adapt Or Die)

5 maart 2024 · 57 min

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Digital technology is revolutionizing every aspect of our lives, now including money. The first in a three-part series as Jeff travels to ETH Denver, the world's preeminent Ethereum conference, to start digging in to digital with those who are actually doing it, the insiders. Up first, world-renowned scholar, investor and, yes, philosopher-historian Manny Rincon Cruz. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Manny Rincon Cruz

Stop looking at the fed, this is what you need to worry about

5 maart 2024 · 19 min

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Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre Lees meer

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Mind-Boggling Reason GDP Is Going Up

2 maart 2024 · 21 min

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Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Lees meer

AP US national debt hits record $34 trillion as Congress gears up for funding fight
https://apnews.com/article/national-debt-deficits-biden-economy-inflation-record-b4258704f830c7f6e9c5e693748216cb

Milton Friedman Newsweek “Deficits and Inflation"
https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214251/full

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This Is Signaling An ALL-OUT Global Recession

29 februari 2024 · 18 min

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Unlike most terms thrown around Economics, 'globally synchronized' is no joke. It also isn't a recent development. Throughout modern history, when a sizable portion of the world starts to show contraction it will spread throughout the rest with very few spared. It is a poignant reminder given how the same is happening right now. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

BoJ New Procedures for Money Market Operations and Monetary Easing Mar 19, 2001
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2001/k010319a.htm

Speech given by Kazuo Ueda, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at Council on Foreign Relations in New York, May 11, 2001 https://www2.boj.or.jp/archive/en/announcements/press/koen_2001/ko0105a.htm

Speech by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, at Central Bankers' Panel at the International Monetary Conference, Singapore, 4 June 2001
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2001/html/sp010604.en.html

FOMC Transcript November 1979
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19791120meeting.pdf

Silent Revolution: The International Monetary Fund, 1979–89,
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/silent/index.htm

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Japan's Crisis Is Sending A Warning To The World

28 februari 2024 · 20 min

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Japan is in recession, one that is getting worse. Japanese officials tell you not to believe your lying eyes, inflation is the greatest risk. All the data conclusively shows it is not, that Japan's contraction is a product of global forces that just so happen to be taking care of Japanese "inflation" risks, too. That's NOT a good sign.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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This Chart Shows Where Interest Rates Are Heading

27 februari 2024 · 19 min

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How accurate are market tools like spreads? If you're looking for absolute precision, you're in the wrong business. These measures are highly useful for broad purposes. Unfortunately, history shows those point in the direction of serious general economic misadventures.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What Is Money Debate with Lyn Alden and George Gammon

26 februari 2024 · 40 min

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Eurodollar University's conversations, Guests Lyn Alden & George Gammon

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

#lynalden

The Fed's Money Printing (What You Must Understand)

25 februari 2024 · 19 min

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The Federal Reserve "prints" bank reserves, that's it. To understand why that matters, you have to understand where bank reserves came from and what they were and are intended for. It isn't at all what you think. But don't take my word for it; that comes straight from the Fed itself. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A Historical Survey, November 2008
https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/economic-review/2008/vol93no4_quinn_roberds.pdf

FRB Banking and Monetary Statistics 1914-41
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bms/1914-1941/BMS14-41_complete.pdf

FOMC Transcript July 1981
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdf

FOMC Transcript October 1979
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19791006meeting.pdf

FOMC Transcript March 1991
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdf

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Breaking Fed Report Exposes What They Are Actually Scared Of

23 februari 2024 · 20 min

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If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 Lees meer

The FOMC's minutes for its January meeting shed light on the dilemma currently hitting policymakers. They're seeming embrace of the lower rates from last bond rally was no fluke. They instead share our growing and NOTABLE concerns over possible substantial fallout from CRE. However, they also can't help themselves whenever Phillips drops by.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FOMC Minutes January 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240131.pdf

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

IT'S BEGUN: The Biggest Threat To Your Job Is Here

22 februari 2024 · 21 min

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Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/worries-grow-over-a-k-shaped-economic-recovery-that-favors-the-wealthy.html

Bloomberg How Companies Say ‘Layoffs’ Without Saying ‘Layoffs’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/corporate-layoffs-all-the-ways-companies-say-someone-is-unemployed

CNBC As companies lay off even more workers, they could be making a big mistake in the way they’re doing it
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/20/as-companies-lay-off-even-more-workers-they-could-be-making-a-mistake.html

Challenger, Gray & Christmas
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-136-to-82307-to-begin-2024-financial-tech-lead/

Bloomberg Job Cuts Are Sending a Chill Through the Remote Work World
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/layoffs-make-remote-workers-reconsider-work-from-home-jobs?srnd=economics-v2

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference November 1, 2023
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231101.pdf

Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-third-quarter-of-2023/

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's Happening

21 februari 2024 · 18 min

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If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 Lees meer

Chinese "banks" opted for an unusually large cut to China's benchmark 5-year Loan Prime Rate. In truth, that appears at the behest of Beijing where authorities are becoming increasingly desperate. Nothing they are doing is working - and Chinese banks know it. China has a growing bank problem on its hands before any of its other major problems.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg China’s Bold Mortgage Rate Cut Met With Lukewarm Reaction
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/chinese-banks-cut-mortgage-reference-rate-by-most-on-record

CNBC China boosts property funding with first cut in key loan rate since June
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/china-cuts-benchmark-5-year-lending-rate-for-the-first-time-since-june.html

Monetary policy shocks and the signaling channel of monetary policy in China
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000047?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=85898a601dfcdb01

Bloomberg China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Ripple Across the World
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/china-s-real-estate-crisis-is-starting-to-ripple-across-the-world

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IT STARTED... We Need To Discuss This Immediately

20 februari 2024 · 18 min

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If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.
https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar Lees meer

As more countries around the world "unexpectedly" succumb to recession, the consequences aren't strictly economic. While globally synchronized means many more will follow, the costs need to be accounted for in human terms. Why does it feel like half the planet is on the move? It's the economy, stupid.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Skynews 8,000 migrants travel to southern border as election looms
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKgRbVGO2XU

Autumn 2022 Economic Forecast: The EU economy at a turning point
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/autumn-2022-economic-forecast-eu-economy-turning-point_en

EC Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast: A modest recovery ahead after a challenging year
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5743

Winter 2024 Economic Forecast: A delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflation
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_730

Fitch Ratings
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-to-fall-sharply-in-2024-us-recession-avoided-08-12-2023

Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Oct 2023
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20231020.pdf

World Bank Global Economic Prospects June 2023 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/content

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university

It's Official, Sh*t Is Really Hitting The Fan

19 februari 2024 · 20 min

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It's a recession rash. Economic growth expectations slashed, "unexpectedly", of course. Technical recessions spreading around the world's major economies because real ones are. Yet, still the idea of a US decoupling persists resting largely on a few past-tense stats and, most of all, equity investors.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This has only happened one other time in history...

18 februari 2024 · 19 min

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There are a lot of parallels now and the 1970s - and inflation isn't actually one of them. The whole world saw recession coming in 1979, even that vast majority of those on the FOMC. Except, there was no recession in '79. It's what leads up to contraction that matters, not when it finally gets noticed.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This Dwarfs What We've Seen In Recent History

16 februari 2024 · 19 min

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This is getting out of hand. Not only is it a major risk and not just to those "invested" in equities, there are several deeply troubling reasons to care why several major economy stock indexes are setting new highs while the economies allegedly tied to them suffer substantial now-recognized recessions. This isn't going to end well.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Investing.com Japan’s Nikkei 225 near record high as Q4 recession dents BOJ pivot bets
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/japans-nikkei-225-near-record-high-as-q4-recession-dents-boj-pivot-bets-3304175

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The TRUTH About The Stock Market

15 februari 2024 · 19 min

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Stocks keep hitting new highs yet one of those markets which is doing just that also proves that it can't be because of the economy. This one leaves little doubt especially as so many other markets pile on with their views (not even talking bonds here). Stocks are buying a 'liquidity' story, not actual real world fundamentals.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Magnificent 7 Concentration
https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644

CNN Germany’s stock market just hit a new record high despite a faltering economy. What gives?
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/investing/german-stock-market-dax-record-high/index.html

Investopedia DAX
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dax.asp

BloombergNEF Copper Prices May Jump 20% by 2027 as Supply Deficit Rises
https://about.bnef.com/blog/copper-prices-may-jump-20-by-2027-as-supply-deficit-rises/

ING Aluminium surplus to persist as demand disappoints
https://think.ing.com/articles/aluminium-surplus-to-persist-as-demand-disappoints/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Striking Parallels Between Today's Inflation Report And 2011

14 februari 2024 · 19 min

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No one remembers the "red hot" and "sticky" supply shock of 2010 and 2011 BECAUSE it was, yes, transitory. The Fed didn't need to raise rates or do anything. In fact, the FOMC was busy with more "accommodating" policies like Operation Twist and then two more QEs, yet consumer prices disinflate-d anyway. Outside of one artificial piece of the CPI, the January 2024 version was in every other way just like back then.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNNMoney Consumer prices up 2.1% in past year
https://money.cnn.com/2011/03/17/news/economy/cpi_inflation/index.htm

Boston Fed Eric Rosengren A Look Inside a Key Economic Debate: How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Price Increases Driven by Supply Shocks?
https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/speeches/a-look-inside-a-key-economic-debate-how-should-monetary-policy-respond-to-price-increases-driven-by-supply-shocks.aspx

FOMC Transcript September 2011
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20110921meeting.pdf

December 2011 Tealbook
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20111213tealbooka20111207.pdf

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Collapse Of The Dollar, Here's What You Must Know

13 februari 2024 · 20 min

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China's yuan has been constantly put forward as a contender to 'dethrone' the dollar. Whatever sliver of a tiny chance it may have had before, it's zero now. The greater challenge is how to replace the existing reserve regime which does need an update. But that means eurodollar NOT dollar. This is not a trivial distinction; it is, in fact, everything.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FRBNY Monthly Review November 1960
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbnyreview/rev_frbny_196011.pdf?utm_source=direct_download

BIS Quarterly Review June 2012
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1206f.pdf

Bloomberg A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/a-99-bond-wipeout-hands-hedge-funds-a-harsh-lesson-on-china

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Real Estate Insider Makes Shocking Predictions On Banking System And Real Estate

12 februari 2024 · 28 min

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To get the rest of the conversation, become a Eurodollar University member and/or DDA subscriber. We've got unadvertised sales available that will allow you access to all the EDU content, including the the full hour-plus with Ken here:
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Eurodollar University's conversations w/Ken McElroy

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This Is More Dangerous Than You Think

11 februari 2024 · 22 min

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The more they tell us how great everything is, the more you know it isn't. Americans like their compatriots from around the world know something isn't right. We've seen this kind of divergence from "elite" opinion, descriptions, even mainstream labor data before. Long and silent depression.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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While Everyone Is Focused On The Banking System This Just Happened To China

9 februari 2024 · 18 min

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You might be amazed at just how much Chinese authorities have tried to stabilize their system. If you knew, you'd understand why so much of Beijing is verging on panic-mode. The huge response has come up empty which is a clear signal for how much trouble there really is. For his part, Xi Jinping purged another official unsurprisingly related to financial markets (stocks).

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Xi’s Markets Shakeup Surprised Insiders, Showing Alarm Over Rout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/xi-s-markets-shakeup-surprised-insiders-showing-alarm-over-rout

China's Securities Regulator
http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc_en/c102030/common_list.shtml?channelid=84bedf81e76a4c20b9f43a7c7190519b

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Was This The Fatal Blow to Banking System?! (Urgent Deep Dive)

8 februari 2024 · 21 min

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What's behind the renewed banking woes? Sure, we know it almost certainly has to do with commercial real estate, but we need to get a sense of how much trouble that might lead to. Digging into what information we have available, let's put some hard numbers on the CRE bubble while we go over the latest developments among the US regionals.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Financial Accounts of the United States (Z1)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/

Greenstreet Commercial Property Price Index
https://www.greenstreet.com/insights/CPPI

Brookline Bancorp Q4 2023 results
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/01/24/2816078/0/en/Brookline-Bancorp-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results.html

BankUnited Inc Q4 2023 results
https://ir.bankunited.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bankunited-inc-reports-2023-results

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This Chart Shows Where The Economy Is Going (With 97% Probability)

7 februari 2024 · 18 min

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According to these historically validated datapoints, the worst is straight ahead for the US in 2024. In just two charts, we can place together three critical pieces of macroeconomic information which provides a useful guide for determining cyclical circumstances in the US economy. Bank lending, commercial borrowing and, most important, commercial employing.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Federal Reserve SLOOS
https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos.htm

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This Globally Systemic Market Is Sending A MASSIVE Warning

6 februari 2024 · 17 min

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After an "unexpected" late 2023 plunge, oil prices rebounded and the WTI curve even managed to flip from contango to backwardation. Rather than point to a firming global situation, the latest move in the crude market instead proves it was just Red Sea shipping fears. A shocking collapse in German trade reminds us of what oil's fundamentals really are. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

IEA Monthly Oil Report December 2023
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2023

IEA Monthly Oil Report January 2024
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2024

ECB Combined Policy Decision and Statement January 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240125~d65b43331a.en.pdf?18350e063857b7aa27302e03a8f721d5

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Oh WOW: It ALL Makes Sense Now

5 februari 2024 · 17 min

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Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:
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It's not just the payroll data that is conflicted with itself, there are a number of other mainstream sources where the economic situation depicted by them could not be more different. Stepping back and looking at it all, we end up finding more lining up one way than the other. As Jay Powell prepares to take a victory lap, if he hasn't already he may want to temper his enthusiasm.

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Market In Recent History

4 februari 2024 · 18 min

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Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:
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This is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headline payroll number shows one thing, then the rest of the same data says the exact opposite. What in the hell is going on in the jobs report?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I Fear That It Has Started…

2 februari 2024 · 20 min

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If you're looking for a guide on collateral and how to spot shortfalls in it, get your copy of EDU's report on collateral shortages here:
https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral Lees meer

This isn't about a relatively small New York community bank no one had heard of until yesterday. The markets reactions to it were far more important than the details of that bank's announcement. There is not a whole lot of faith in banking, and it may be the ball is rolling once again on that front.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

NYCB Acquires Signature Assets
https://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-THROUGH-ITS-BANK-SUBSIDIARY-FLAGSTAR-BANK-N.A.-ACQUIRES-CERTAIN-ASSETS-AND-ASSUMES-CERTAIN-LIABILITIES-OF-SIGNATURE-BRIDGE-BANK-FROM-THE-FDIC/default.aspx

NYCB reports results for 2023
https://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-REPORTS-RECORD-RESULTS-FOR-2023/default.aspx

Bloomberg Markets NY Community Bancorp Plunges as Real Estate Risks Jolt Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/new-york-community-bancorp-slumps-on-surprise-loss-dividend-cut?fromMostRead=true

FOMC Statement January 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240131a1.pdf

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A Historical Anomaly Is Occurring: Why This Change Matters Now

1 februari 2024 · 20 min

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Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:
https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar Lees meer

Suggest topics or someone to join Jeff on Presidents Day in the comments.

Wild day in bonds has the market doing something highly unusual. There "shouldn't" be a rally in LT rates so soon after the last big one. Global markets are strong anyway which could be a warning about a couple things, from the monetary to the economy.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is The Government Debt Confirming a Crisis

31 januari 2024 · 17 min

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Full interview with Brent Johnson on Eurodollar Dominance
https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar Lees meer

You won't believe how much debt our broke government issued last year. MULTIPLE trillions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve did three-quarters of a trillion USTs roll off its balance sheet (QT). Rather than destroy the Treasury market or bonds in general, quite the opposite has happened. You NEED to ask yourself WHY. There is no soft landing here.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

TBAC Most Recent Quarterly Refunding
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding/most-recent-quarterly-refunding-documents

TBAC Treasury Borrowing Estimates for Q1 2024
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2054

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

New Survey Shows The Raw Reality Of Our Situation

30 januari 2024 · 19 min

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New York Fed's Empire PMI kicked off the January data cycle by plunging. In the meantime, the rest of the regional data filled in the picture for the month and the final one of the group ended up more like the first one than not. We shouldn't underestimate the usefulness of these surveys especially since there are numerous signs, however long it might end up being, this is still a cycle. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2401#tab-report

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Global Consequences of $300 Trillion in Lost Economic Growth: Hugh Hendry

29 januari 2024 · 34 min

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To see the rest of Jeff's conversation with Hugh, become an EDU member or DDA subscriber. There is so much more available for EDU members and subscribers, starting with loads of background material, video series like the Basics, multi-part presentations, Q&A vids, Classroom pieces that go over the crucial parts of money and the eurodollar system. Subscribers to EDU's Deep Dive Analysis (DDA) get daily deep dives into current events, what's really happening and what they mean. Lees meer

We are having an "unadvertised" sales so you can take advantage of our best offer packaging the DDA and a membership together while also including our Daily Briefing, too. All the details here:

https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1

Eurodollar University's Guest Conversations: Hugh Hendry

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's Here: The Fed New Plan Changes Everything

29 januari 2024 · 22 min

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The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing? Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Shocking Implications from Viral GDP Report

26 januari 2024 · 17 min

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For those in the Soft Landing USA camp, there was everything in today's Q4 2023 GDP report. Growth rate, consumers, an even more solid dose of disinflation. Near perfect Goldilocks. So why wasn't it taken that way in the market? Some answers from Europe. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Lagarde Says It’s Likely ECB Will Cut Rates in Summer
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-lagarde-says-agressive-rate-cut-bets-don-t-help-ecb

ECB Monetary Policy Statement
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2024/html/ecb.is240125~db0f145c32.en.html

Bloomberg Lagarde’s Talk of Summer ECB Cut Sees Traders Bet on April
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/ecb-s-lagarde-stands-by-comments-on-likely-summer-rate-cut

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

BREAKING: The World Isn't Ready for What Happened In CHINA

25 januari 2024 · 20 min

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Unnerved by recent developments in financial markets and its economy, Chinese authorities unveiled a rash of new measures. To understand the degree of danger, we examine the proposals before keying on critical signals like repo and interbank conditions. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

PBOC statement
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5218615/index.html

Bloomberg China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/china-mulls-stock-market-rescue-package-backed-by-278-billion?fromMostRead=true

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This Stock Market Goes Up When Sh*t Is Hitting Fan Globally

24 januari 2024 · 19 min

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Beside the S&P 500, Japan's Nikkei 225 has been basking in the global spotlight. Surging to its highest in decades and not all that far anymore from its own all-time mark, it might seem Japanese equity investors are expressing loads of confidence from the Asian perspective. Just like US indices, however, there are a number of reasons to look at the Nikkei with caution - starting with China and then going from there. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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The Stock Market Is MUCH Worse Than You Think

23 januari 2024 · 19 min

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First part of Mike Green conversation, including the retirement bombshell from IBM:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jfIDNqVnZo Lees meer

The rest of it is available for EDU members and DDA subscribers. If you aren't one, you can become one here:
https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptions

The S&P 500 hit another record high. That's proof the US is on track to achieve its Goldilocks scenario, soft landing and disinflation combined. Or is it? What do stock indexes really tell us? Sifting through the averages they instead picture a different set of conditions (assist from Mike Green). The vast majority of US shares look far more Chinese than Magnificent 7.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What Is Going On With The Bond Market?

22 januari 2024 · 19 min

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You often hear someone in the media say the bond market is currently pricing for five or six Fed rate cuts. That's not actually what's being priced. This is not a subtle difference or a few degrees of interpretation. This is night and day with stocks potentially getting caught in between. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Emergency Report Reveals Truth About The Banking Crisis

21 januari 2024 · 18 min

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EDU's report on Collateral Shortages
https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral Lees meer

What was last year's banking crisis really about? Deposit flight was only the first part of it. In a bombshell report prepared by a working group of the G30, it admits the biggest challenge for banks and central banks alike was...collateral. What the group recommends authorities do about it is...insane.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

G30 BANK FAILURES AND CONTAGION LENDER OF LAST RESORT, LIQUIDITY, AND RISK MANAGEMENT
https://group30.org/images/uploads/publications/G30_Lessons-23-Crisis_RPT_Final.pdf

BPI Comment on the New G30 Report
https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Comment-on-the-new-G30-report.pdf

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

How China's Purges Reveal What Lies Ahead

19 januari 2024 · 18 min

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More data from the Chinese economy and real estate market which further confirms the dire situation China is facing. Xi Jinping is facing that situation by tightening his grip even further, waging a stepped-up war against corruption even though Xi declared corruption had been defeated five years ago. This isn't about corruption; the more the Chinese gov't does, including purges, the worst it is getting. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

SCMP ‘No one is safe’: China purges record number of senior officials in 2023, with more ‘tigers’ likely to fall
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3247040/no-one-safe-china-purges-record-number-senior-officials-2023-more-tigers-likely-fall

Bloomberg China’s Defense Purge Strikes at Heart of Xi’s Military Reforms
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-04/china-s-defense-purge-strikes-at-heart-of-xi-s-military-reforms

Asia Times Water in Chinese missiles’ tanks is a fake story
https://asiatimes.com/2024/01/water-in-chinese-missiles-tanks-is-a-fake-story/

VOA Dreary Economic Data Suggests Struggles Ahead for China
https://www.voanews.com/a/dreary-economic-data-suggests-struggles-ahead-for-china/7444827.html

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #china #xijinping #taiwan

What the hell does this data mean?

18 januari 2024 · 19 min

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Ho ho wut? Data looks awful one day but fine the next. Yesterday's Empire Fed plunged, yet today the gov't reports retail sales numbers that look fine. Was Christmas a bust, or was it strong like everyone now says? Reconciling these numbers - including production - isn't really difficult starting with "strong" context. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

Breaking Report Shows What's Coming In 2024

17 januari 2024 · 19 min

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The Empire Fed's manufacturing PMI absolutely plummeted in January 2024. While it may be just one region for one month, these numbers are some of the worst on record and convincingly add to the growing list of evidence that the US economy is heading into the non-linear part of the recession process. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Germany Narrowly Escapes Recession But Outlook Remains Tough
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/germany-s-economy-shrank-last-year-for-first-time-since-pandemic

NYT Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far (1974)
https://www.nytimes.com/1974/08/28/archives/recession-some-criteria-missing-so-far-there-will-be-no-recession.html

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Unbelievable Connection Between LTCM, The GFC and What Lies Ahead in 2024: Jim Rickards' Deep Dive

16 januari 2024 · 28 min

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To watch the full interview you can access it with our deep dive or membership site https://www.eurodollar.university Lees meer

This conversation wasn’t just an inside account of LTCM and a recall of history at of those famous crossroads, Jim Rickards and Jeff ruminate over the implications from the affair which are still reverberating through time right up to this day. The struggles to contain the fallout from the debacle are every bit as relevant now as it was shocking way back then.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

This Will Be Worldwide In Less Than 30 days

15 januari 2024 · 20 min

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Jim Rickards Interview (1st Part)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA4JH9S39wg Lees meer

For memberships and subscriptions, there's a "secret" sale going on here:
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1

Chinese leadership ended 2023 on several ominous notes. Economic and importantly financial data continues to defy expectations for a turnaround adding more evidence to the perilous situation. At the same time, the government is making more extreme political action, purging more top officials under the guise of "reform" when it is more likely the former is really driving the latter.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg US Intelligence Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Army
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military

Xi Jinping's July Military meeting
http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16238925.html

Axios China's military purge deepens
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/31/xi-jinping-china-military-corruption-purge

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

WARNING: The Yield Curve JUST Signaled The Worst Case Scenario

14 januari 2024 · 19 min

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EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like
Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral Lees meer

A big move in short-term rates especially the critical 2-year UST has yield curves closing in on un-inversion. That is a critical threshold and unlike a few months ago it is unfolding in the "bull" direction. It is very important to understand what is happening and why it really matters.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

If You Want To Predict Where Inflation Will Go In 2024 Watch This

12 januari 2024 · 20 min

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Consumer prices accelerated in December, so that means the term "transitory disinflation" will be out in full force for the third time in a year. The risk of actual inflation, however, remains incredibly low to non-existent regardless of what that term implies. And that's easily established by the growing mountain of evidence and a host of clear historical parallels. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

BLS CPI Press Release Jan 11, 2024
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm

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#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #cpi

What These MASSIVE Repo Fails Mean For The Markets

11 januari 2024 · 21 min

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EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like
Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral Lees meer

So, there were a whole lot of repo fails at the end of December. What does that mean? What are repo fails? They are often fickle and fleeting, but they can tell us something very important about just what we want to know where it comes to the beating heart of the global monetary system. Decoding fails is actually pretty easy with a little bit of knowledge and history.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

IOSCO
https://www.iosco.org/about/?subsection=about_iosco

IOSCO Securities Lending Transactions
https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD96.pdf

FRBNY Guide to FR2004 Settlement Fails Data
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_failsprimer.html

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#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #collateral #repo

Bonds Just Made A Historic Move, Now What?

10 januari 2024 · 20 min

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The recent bond rally - which may not be over - was one for the books. The 10-year US Treasury dropped nearly 120 bps off its yield in only 47 trading days. A move that big and that fast for the 10s had only happened six other times over the last three decades. We'll go over what that means and what it can tell us about where we go from here; bonds and everything else. Lees meer

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment