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Its Starting: The Repo Market Is Failing?!
9 januari 2024 · 20 min
EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like
Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral Lees meerWhile everyone was looking into year-end SOFR, real money stuff went haywire. Repo fails absolutely surged and swap spreads collapsed more than they had already. Dealers are hoarding Treasuries at the same time where banks are hitting up the Fed's BTFP. What do all of these and others mean, including the BTFP?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
IOSCO/CPSS Securities Lending Report
https://www.bis.org/press/p990712.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
This Is The *All At Once* Moment
8 januari 2024 · 19 min
Friday delivered labor market body blows to the soft landing's chances. Friday was filled with labor market data that isn't leaving us any gray area. The evidence continues to stack up and in more convincing fashion the US economy bonds were right. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment
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This is The 3rd Worst EVER (This Has Only Been Followed By a Recession)
7 januari 2024 · 19 min
Full interview with Mr. Milkshake, Brent Johnson, on eurodollar (not dollar) dominance:
https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar Lees meerWhile many cheered another payroll number, in reality the labor data were a complete trainwreck. The Household Survey's measure of employment plunged and full-time jobs crashed by an almost record amount during December. What's the meaning behind this bevy of increasingly grim numbers?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment
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Does This New Data Show I Am Wrong About A Recession?
5 januari 2024 · 20 min
Payrolls are positive. The unemployment rate is incredibly low. Stocks are soaring. What recession? Furthermore, we've been talking about one for so long it is more than understandable why people have tuned it out. But how could we know the recession call is wrong? It isn't just the continued lack of layoffs. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment
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Companies Are Now REFUSING To Hire Employees
4 januari 2024 · 19 min
The level of hiring in the US has collapsed in a way we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009 (outside the pandemic lockdowns). JOLTS survey results show the largest 6-month decline in hiring of any same-sized period over the entire 21st century (ex. '20). The labor market is more than halfway into recession; but what about that other half? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment
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This is BY FAR The Biggest Risk To The Global Economy
3 januari 2024 · 18 min
China's 'president' Xi Jinping made a startling admission in his New Year address. For the first time he said the economy struggled last year. The confession merely underscores the difficulties the country is currently facing and has so far been unable to surmount. But why? As more data pours in, we see how the answer to that question isn't actually Chinese. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Full text of President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year message
https://english.news.cn/20231231/4e0fc2697d994cd2b4dcb5dca525a611/c.htmlNikkei Analysis: China's spy agency now watches for doomsayers
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-s-spy-agency-now-watches-for-doomsayersCNN China’s economy had a miserable year. 2024 might be even worse
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/27/economy/china-economy-challenges-2024-intl-hnk/index.htmlBloomberg China Home Sales Fall Again as Policy Shifts Fail to Stem Decline
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-31/china-home-sales-fall-again-as-policy-shifts-fail-to-stem-declineTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#inflation #deflation #money #recession #federalreserve #fomc #interestrates #china #banks #xijinping
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Why We Are NOT Going Into A 1970s Type Of Inflation
2 januari 2024 · 22 min
For quite a while there, you couldn't go long without hearing about how the 2020s were about to repeat the 1970s. That was never any real risk, but why? What is inflation? Where does it actually come from (spoiler: not the Fed)? Most important of all, how can we tell? The answer to all those questions are painfully clear, but once more Economics has the public thinking only backwards. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#1940s #1970s #inflation #deflation #money #recession #federalreserve #fomc #interestrates
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What Really Happened In 2008? (It's NOT What You've Been Told)
31 december 2023 · 22 min
Last Chance for Christmas Sale
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Lees meerWhat's the difference between financial and monetary crisis? Everything. Whether anyone knows it or not, we continue to live in the long shadows of 2008. They are deflationary more than anything, too, a Silent Depression that so long as we remain stuck in it will make the 2020s into something more like the 2010s. That's not good. Getting out starts with finally a proper accounting of 15 years ago.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Ben Bernanke Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Marcy 28, 2007
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20070328a.htmFCIC Final Report
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-FCIC/pdf/GPO-FCIC.pdfNew Yorker Anatomy of a Meltdown
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/12/01/anatomy-of-a-meltdownSt Louis Fed (2009) The Financial Crisis and U.S. Cross-Border Financial Flows
https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/articles/crossborder/default.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#gfc2022 #gfc2023 #2008 #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot
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Why Stocks Are Up When Everything Else Looks Bad
30 december 2023 · 18 min
Bond yields have plunged and not just US Treasuries. Yet, stocks are sitting at or above all-time highs. In fact, the two seem to be related at least in the short run. The bond rally began in late October and the stock surge followed a week later. But what bonds are suggesting wouldn't be good for stocks. So, what are stocks really doing? Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Watch This Before The Fed Cuts Rates
29 december 2023 · 20 min
Only a few days left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships, and research subscriptions.
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Lees meerWhat happens when the Fed really pivots and starts cutting rates? We know what's supposed to happen, though it never does. Before we get into the history of rate cut programs, we first have to understand why "monetary" policy targets interest rates in the first place. Once we do that it's easy to see why rate cuts are all hype.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC December 1974
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcmod19741217.pdfFOMC July 1981
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdfFOMC June 2000
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20000628meeting.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot
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This ONLY Happens Before Sh*t Hits The Fan
28 december 2023 · 19 min
Does any of this stuff matter? If you stand back and look at this year, all of these weird financial indications may not have appeared to make any difference. The US economy, in particular, seems just fine if not better than fine. They haven't been any more bank failures. Yet, bond yields are crashing here, which is not something to ignore. What we're doing with Euro$ data is trying to assess the health of the monetary system to see if there might indeed be "something" there. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #repo #dollarshortage
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The Real Reason The Fed Is Pivoting?!
27 december 2023 · 19 min
Still time left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships and research subscriptions.
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Lees meerIn a very important and very real sense, the Fed has already pivoted by embracing the recent and sharp decline in market interest rates. Why? In a word, insurance. Along with other crucial concerns, officials are no longer so sure the soft landing is on track. Since central bankers and Economists believe lower rates are "accommodative", they believe a pivot could help cushion being wrong about the economy.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates
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This Is One Of The MOST Important Signals In ALL of Finance
22 december 2023 · 20 min
The conversation with Brent Johnson on eurodollar dominance
https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar Lees meerChristmas Sale at EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1When the dollar goes up it is one of the simplest yet most critical warning signs in all finance. Most people are told it is because of the Fed and its rate policies. The last couple years have made it appear like that's actually the case. Instead, the evidence conclusively shows the real culprit behind the dollar's movements is...eurodollar. You don't have to take my word for it.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BIS WP 592 The dollar, bank leverage and the deviation from covered interest parity
https://www.bis.org/publ/work592.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral
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Another MAJOR Central Bank Just Pivoted
21 december 2023 · 20 min
Christmas Sale at EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Lees meerWhether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy tweak — here’s why it matters
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/bank-of-japan-loosens-ycc-cites-greater-flexibility-and-jolts-markets.htmlBloomberg Traders Pile Into Bets That End of Negative BOJ Rate Is Near
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/boj-rate-hike-bets-ramp-up-as-ueda-and-himino-spook-tradersBloomberg BOJ Deputy Chief Hints That Negative Rate End May Be Closer
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-06/boj-s-deputy-chief-hints-that-end-of-negative-rate-may-be-closerCNBC Bank of Japan sticks to ultra-easy policy amid ‘extremely high’ uncertainties; yen tumbles
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/boj-bank-of-japan-sticks-to-ultra-easy-monetary-policy-in-light-of-high-uncertainties.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral
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Is This The Black Swan Event The Fed Is Preparing For?!
20 december 2023 · 18 min
Christmas Sale at EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Lees meerThere are several reasons why suddenly the Fed has apparently accepted market rates going sharply lower. The soft landing scenario might be in greater jeopardy than recent data indicates - or it might more likely come from outside the US. Our focus here, however, is on the financial. What if conditions in the CRE market we all know is going to be a huge problem have started to come to a head? If so, that would get the FOMC's attention. There is evidence for this, too. Maybe more than you'd think.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Green Street CRE
https://www.greenstreet.com/insights/CPPIFederal Reserve Beige Book November 2023
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231129.pdfBloomberg Odd Lots
Why Multifamily Is the Next Stress Point in Commercial Real Estate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/why-multifamily-is-the-next-stress-point-in-commercial-real-estateTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral
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The True Scale of The Global Dollar Shortage
19 december 2023 · 19 min
Christmas Sale at EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Lees meerWhat's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constraints.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral
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Why Are Central Banks Pivoting: What Changed?!
18 december 2023 · 19 min
Why is the Fed pivoting? More importantly, why now? We have to consider a couple of options since central bank officials are privy to more data than we have. Not that they know what to do with it, but if there's something they see perhaps we don't yet it's worth figuring it out ahead of time. After all, with rates plunging markets are in a rush to get somewhere already. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement
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Why Bond Yields Across The World Are COLLAPSING (Not What You Think)
17 december 2023 · 20 min
China's growing economy and financial turmoil may seem like a world away, but it's closer than you might think. After all, bond yields aren't just plunging around the globe solely because the US may or may not end up in recession. There are far greater and more immediate concerns elsewhere right now, starting with the Chinese. What happens there matters everywhere, too. Even Economists like Paul Krugman have had to come to terms with that. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
X (twitter) Kyle Bass CNBC
https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1734227930933248050CNN Even 1.4 billion people can’t fill all of China’s vacant homes, ex-official admits
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/business/china-too-many-homes-for-1-4-billion-people-intl-hnk/index.htmlWorld Bank Global Economic Prospects June 2023
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/contentWorld Bank Navigating China's Post-Pandemic Growth Path
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/cf2c1298e77c50bf1f1e7954ff560bc6-0070012023/original/China-Economic-Update-Dec23-EN.pdfKrugman Reveals closed-door notes
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20160401/p2a/00m/0na/022000cTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement
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HOLY SH*T! It's Here: What's Next?
15 december 2023 · 18 min
If you are interested, we are having a holiday sale. You can check it out here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Lees meer
The FOMC and its dots. Stocks took them one way, bonds another. After pounding higher-for-longer all year, suddenly officials just gave up on it like nothing. That's a bit curious already. We need to understand what lower rates really mean, both in the marketplace and why the Federal Reserve (and others) are suddenly in agreement with bonds.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jay Powell Speech December 1, 2023
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231201a.htmJay Powell Press Conference December 13, 2023
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231213.pdfFOMC SEP - the December dots
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement
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Is The Bond Market Wrong?! Has it Ever Been Wrong In The Past?
14 december 2023 · 19 min
Is the bond market wrong? Has it been wrong in the past? How useful are these esoteric indications and curves? Do they actually corroborate with anything in reality?
On the day when the Fed meets and all eyes are on interest rates, let's go through an example where it looked like the markets got it all wrong but in reality they got every last bit right. What curves were really telling us then, and what that can tell us about today. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: Traders Turbocharge ECB Bets by Predicting 2.5% Rate in 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/markets-turbocharge-bets-that-ecb-will-lead-world-on-rate-cutsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement
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While Everyone’s Focused On CPI - The Oil Market Just Did This
13 december 2023 · 18 min
New multi-month low in oil, multi-year low in gasoline. Big turn into more contango for WTI futures. Energy sector completely overshadows US CPI for November even as energy prices are one key reason for the heavy disinflation in it. We need only look back to last year and wonder how we got to be in the same place all over again. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
OPEC Statement November 30, 2023
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7267.htmS&P Global Commodity Insights
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/113023-saudi-arabia-russia-extend-oil-supply-cuts-into-q1-2024-as-other-opec-members-joinFOMC Transcript August 5, 2008
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080805meeting.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #eurodollar #income
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It's Happening Again...
12 december 2023 · 17 min
What's bothering bonds? Several key issues starting with how everything about China is going wrong right now. The country just reported a sizable acceleration in deflation, both consumer and producer, on top of increasing problems in its money markets like repo. With those developing against a backdrop of failed stimulus, Moody's has chimed in with downgrades to its outlook for the country, for its biggest banks, even several crucial regions. Basically, it's a mess but one that is globally synchronized in what may be very surprising ways. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Chinas-A1-rating-changes-outlook-to-negative-from-Rating-Action--PR_481753?cid=GAR9PTU7VKT2671
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlooks-to-negative-on-eight-Chinese-banks-following--PR_482777
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement
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“This Has Been Inevitable” (With Macro Alf)
11 december 2023 · 26 min
If you want to check out the full video, visit Eurodollar University: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page Lees meer
Take advantage of this exclusive offer!
The bond market scares many away as it’s full of jargon and technicalities, but that ends today with Alf’s Bond Market Course.
And Alf throws in a juicy 20% OFF discount just for Eurodollar University listeners!
The first 50 buyers can get 20% OFF by using the discount code ''JEFF'' at checkout:
Here is the link - hurry up: https://themacrocompass.org/courses/#bond-market-course
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -
BREAKING Payroll Report Goes Viral
10 december 2023 · 18 min
November payrolls beat expectations yet again as the cycle stretches farther. Even so, the labor market is exhibiting telltale signs of recession anyway - not that it will matter to the soft landing narrative. Industries accounting for half of all private US jobs are cutting them. Contraction is widespread already, just not widespread enough to be accepted more broadly. The way things are going, and the way markets are pricing, still just a matter of time. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement
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Did This Change The Stock Market Forever?
8 december 2023 · 21 min
Bonds are screaming bloody murder. By contrast, stocks are taking everything in stride, betting more strongly on disinflation, soft landing, a few rate cuts, every possible Goldilocks angle. Or so it would seem. What do equities really price? Not fundamentals like "liquidity" as is so often claimed nor the economy. Valuations are a fiction. History shows us where the heart of the NYSE really lies, which means there is substantial risk diverging from bonds. Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC: A brief history of the 401(k), which changed how Americans retire
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/04/a-brief-history-of-the-401k-which-changed-how-americans-retire.htmlRobert Shiller 2013 Nobel Prize Lecture
https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/shiller-lecture.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement
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It Was Only A Matter Of Time...But It Finally Happened
7 december 2023 · 20 min
Oil prices down big again. A lot more contango, too. Bond buying remains heavy and while not quite to the bull steepening it's moving in on that key point. All signs point to lower rates ahead, but isn't that a good thing? That's what we're supposed to believe... Lees meer
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Ben Bernanke: Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress April 2008
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080402a.htmCNBC: Bernanke Says US Could Be Facing A Mild Recession
https://www.cnbc.com/2008/04/10/bernanke-says-us-could-be-facing-a-mild-recession.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve
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Things Are Getting REALLY Serious Now
6 december 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve
More big moves in the markets including key financial numbers. It is increasingly looking like we've reached the point of non-linearity for both the monetary system as well as the real economy. While waiting for labor market confirmation in the US about what's already happened, interest rate swaps are pricing ahead and like forward rate hedging there's not much to be upbeat about. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -
Global Markets are Preparing for Something MASSIVE, But What?
5 december 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve #europe
Wild trading last week wasn't just about recession worries, there was quite a bit of fear pushed into curves particularly forward curves and especially those in Europe. By Friday, the moves were astounding, the sort of swings last seen clustered around March and April. First, a review of what happened and then some analysis as to why therefore what. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -
Holy Sh*t! The Fed Just Admitted We Are In A Recession
4 december 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve
Recent Federal Reserve report claims at least half the country is already in recession, while another substantial portion likely is. Not only does that match softening rhetoric from policymakers, obviously there's been a radical change in markets, too. Lees meerEurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Federal Reserve Beige Book November 29, 2023
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231129.pdfISM for November 2023
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/november/CNBC: Black Friday weekend shopping turnout soars to a record, as consumers seek bargains
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/28/black-friday-weekend-shopping-turnout-soars-to-a-record.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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Can The Government Keep Spending Money Forever?!
3 december 2023 · 20 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt
Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on much longer, can it? Understanding how it came to be this way, and why, that's the key to answering that question. Blackmail and myths. The problem isn't really govt debt, it's what the debt is being used to (try and) cover up. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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China Is Showing Us Where The Global Economy Will Go Next
1 december 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #china
The more the Chinese government does, the worse you know it must be. China's government is doing even more. That simple rule applies to the global economy since conditions there are a reflection of how it's going around the world. Despite expectations the country has "turned a corner", the data keeps showing just the opposite. Globally synchronized and not in a good way. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: China Factory, Services Activity Shrink in Snag for Recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/china-s-factory-activity-shrinks-again-in-sign-of-recovery-woesSAFE: Balance of paymentsw
https://www.safe.gov.cn/en/2023/1103/2145.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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Bonds Across The World Are All Signaling The Exact Same Thing
30 november 2023 · 17 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe #japan
Interest rates all over the world are dropping, fast. Economic fundamentals are being repriced in global bonds - hard - now that the September effect has fully dissipated and - this is the important part - the world is more and more confirmed in its ugliness. So much so, even a former Fed hawk has to admit something has changed. Just wait until he finds out what that really means, since he isn't reading interest rates. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRB Governor Waller https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20231128a.htm
Bill Ackman interview preview
https://www.bloomberg.com/peer-to-peer
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231129223/why-bill-ackman-thinks-the-economy-will-need-a-fed-rate-cut-very-early-in-2024Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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Banks Around The World Are Preparing For Something BIG
29 november 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe
Banks all over the world are preparing for...something. In addition to hoarding liquidity, they're also derisking and back to hedging again. We see those among US banks and the financial system as well as in Europe where lending has especially suffered for defensive liquidity measures. Quite simply, if the world was heading for a soft landing and where banks are just fine, we wouldn't find any of these symptoms let alone all of them. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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It's STARTING! Global Bank Liquidity Is Drying Up FAST
28 november 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity
Over the last several weeks there have been concerning developments across the global banking system. Overseas data point to serious enough trouble it is causing foreign official institutions to take evasive actions. But it isn't just offshore banks; data for domestic US banks shows correlated behavior. What's behind this sudden global liquidity hoarding? Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The Truth About Federal Reserve Cuts: George Gammon & Jeff Snider
28 november 2023 · 49 min
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NEW Central Bank Report Reveals What's Coming
26 november 2023 · 16 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan
The balance is shifting more decisively, both in the global economy and official reaction to it. More central banks are now cutting rates than hiking them. This is an especially critical development since "monetary" authorities are typically among the last to recognize, admit, then act in response to serious weakness. Lees meerEurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Soft Landing vs Hard Landing ALL Comes Down To This
25 november 2023 · 13 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan
Soft landing vs. hard landing isn't really hard. It all comes down to employment and the jobs market is merely the last stage in a discreet process. We have more and more information which more and more uniformly shows the world entering that last stage. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
SPG US PMI US private sector employment falls for first time since June 2020 amid
muted demand conditions
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b72b9c19b3bd48e78027009aad143044HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI Employment falls for first time in almost three years as eurozone
downturn continues
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/20d35936ba1e4c8cac284d0a18afceefHCOB Flash France PMI French economy endures another steep contraction midway through
fourth quarter
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/73b931ce1dba4f068655878ca9a40625HCOB Flash Germany PMI Downturn in German economy eases in November
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4b17e45241094fa3b97a9f55e81b7e74au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI Private sector activity stalls in November
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/93d3415079964b6c898c8e0718d0ed51Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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The Most Obvious Recession Concern Is Now Getting Really Concerning
23 november 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #oil #gasoline
Even OPEC is having trouble dealing with the growing turmoil in the oil market. Weak demand is forcing the cartel to confront very difficult choices. The reason is because recent price weakness isn't really just about energy. A whole range of financial indications are pointing once more in that wrong if familiar direction. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: OPEC+ Meeting Delayed as Oil Production Talks Hit Turbulence
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-22/opec-talks-hit-turbulence-as-saudis-agitate-over-output-levelsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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We NEED To Discuss The Bond Market ASAP
22 november 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #japan #collateral
Bond market is getting wild. Big moves in a lot places included several many aren't paying close enough attention to. The previous selloff in LT USTs has kept focus on that one segment in this single market. Not only are there crucial warnings in the other UST curve spot, other curves are making an even bigger splash here, some you may not immediately think of. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: Bonds’ Best Month Since March Faces ‘Sanity Check’ in Auction
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-19/bonds-best-month-since-march-faces-sanity-check-in-auctionBloomberg: Booming Bond Rally Likely to Continue After Strong $16 Billion Debt Auction
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-20/treasury-rally-faces-test-in-pre-holiday-20-year-bond-auctionTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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If Central Banks Controlled Interest Rates Then Explain THIS
21 november 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis
Any amateur (like me) with a passing interest in economics knows the story: the Fed controls the economy by raising or lowering interest rates. Those then affect the banking system's credit impulse which either adds to or takes away from the general economy depending on what CBers wish to accomplish. Lees meerOf course, almost none of that is true. How did it get to be this way? Answering that question reveals a lot more than you might think.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Monetary Policy Decisions October 26, 2023
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp231026~6028cea576.en.htmlBundesbank TPI
https://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/monetary-policy/outright-transactions/transmission-protection-instrument-tpi--896158FOMC Transcript August 1, 2011
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomc20110801confcall.pdfMilton Friedman: A Program for Monetary Stability (1960)
https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/objects/57536/a-program-for-monetary-stabilityFOMC Transcript June 27-28, 2000
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20000628meeting.pdfRBI Michael Debabrata Patra: Lost in Transmission? Financial Markets and Monetary Policy
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=1338BOE Catherine Mann: Expectations, lags, and the transmission of monetary policy
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2023/february/expectations-lags-and-the-transmission-of-monetary-policy-speech-by-catherine-l-mann.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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Oh Sh*t... This Just Happened
20 november 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #oil #gasoline #cisco #walmart
From Cisco to Walmart, bonds to oil. Don't call it a comeback, deflation has been here the whole time. Most just forgot about it or were distracted by the combined summertime of soft landing and oil prices. The downside of the disinflation rebound and the weakness it is revealing have brought all the bad deflationary feelings back up to the surface. Lees meerEurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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THIS Will Show You Where Interest Rates Are Going Next
19 november 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy
The mainstream emphasis on Treasury auctions is, like so many of these things, completely misplaced. It's not just misplaced, even the worst Treasury auctions don't actually matter. Interest rates have nothing to do with how much debt the government issues. It's sad, it's not right, but that's the eurodollar world we live in. Uncle Sam has issued almost $20 trillion in debt over the last dozen years, and the long bond yield has barely moved - even with the Fed spiking ST rates. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC statement May 9, 2010
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20100509a.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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Walmart Just Came Out With a MAJOR Warning
17 november 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #walmart
Walmart makes a major warning. Jobless claims spike. Oil (and gas) prices aren't just crashing, the whole WTI curve just get whacked. All three of those are different angles on the same thing. What's driving bids for bonds. The deflationary recession wasn't avoided, merely delayed. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC: Walmart shares slide as retailer gives a cautious outlook about consumer spending
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/walmart-wmt-earnings-q3-2024-.htmlBloomberg: Walmart Sinks on Cautious Consumer Outlook, Late-October Dip
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/walmart-lifts-profit-outlook-stays-cautious-on-us-consumersAAA US average retail gasoline price
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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It's STARTING, This Just Became Global
15 november 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #china #europe
Bond yields dropping again. Oil curve back in contango. Is the economy resilient? Worrisome data from around the world and right where it hurts - consumers. US. China. Europe. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: China’s Mixed Economic Data Adds to Case for More Stimulus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/china-s-economic-activity-mixed-as-beijing-steps-up-supportTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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You Won't Believe How Bonds Reacted to the CPI (What This Means)
15 november 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #cpi
Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer price estimates weren't shocking or even much of a surprise, instead they confirmed a lot about economic risks as well as what has been happening in bonds of late. The selloff isn't just over; it was never what everyone said it was. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: The Rapid Bond Rally Is Looking Fragile
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/rapid-bond-rally-is-looking-fragile-as-fed-supply-expose-cracksTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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It's STARTING! The Fed Just Went To War With Bonds
14 november 2023 · 18 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates
They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last week suddenly they're all hawks again. What changed? It wasn't the economy nor the economic data derived from it. The Fed's entire worldview is exposed when markets diverge from policymakers' preferred path. From rate hikes to the Phillips Curve, there is no basis for what central bankers do...accept to manipulate public opinion. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Chair Jerome H. Powell At "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy," a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231109a.htmNBER: IT’S BAAACK: THE SURGE IN INFLATION IN THE 2020S AND THE RETURN
OF THE NON-LINEAR PHILLIPS CURVE
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31197/w31197.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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“One Of The Worst Bear Markets In History Already Happened” Michael Green
13 november 2023 · 29 min
#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash
The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subscriptions offer, go here:
https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptions Lees meerEurodollar University's guess conversations featuring Mike Green
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HOLY SH*T! China's Banking System Just...
12 november 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #china #banks
China's repo market nearly freezes up at the end of October and now this. Even the biggest institutions are taking unprecedented steps. On top of well-documented real estate woes, the most recent economic stats on the Chinese economy indicate right back into deflation. With that third failed reopening and only ongoing trouble for non-bank financial firms, the liquidity situation inside China is getting hot. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: China Banks Rush to Raise Funds After Cash Crunch Spooks Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/china-banks-rush-to-raise-funds-after-cash-crunch-spooks-marketBloomberg: PBOC Drains Liquidity in Signal It Sees Rate Surge as Temporary
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/china-s-central-bank-drains-liquidity-after-overnight-rate-surgeBloomberg: PBOC Seen Adding Liquidity After China Money Market Rates Surge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/pboc-aims-to-add-liquidity-after-surge-in-money-market-ratesTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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Why Is The Fed LYING About This
10 november 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity
Are interest rates going back up, or not? According to many Economists and central bankers (same thing), they believe so because a key metric they use has turned positive after years of being negative. Technically true, while it may be math it is hardly science. Their number is pure voodoo. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRBNY: Treasury Term Premia
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/overviewBloomberg: ‘Dark Matter’ Bond Metric Mesmerizes Wall Street and Washington
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/-dark-matter-bond-metric-mesmerizes-wall-street-and-washingtonTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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BREAKING: A Global Recession Is Starting
9 november 2023 · 19 min
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #oil #gasoline #europe #germany #crash
Oil market selloff is picking up taking gasoline prices along for the ride. The recession noises are getting louder and louder reminding us again there are no soft landings. It was pure coincidence, yet appropriate anyway Fed Chair Jay Powell addressed some his staff statisticians and cautioned them how often they are surprised by outcomes in the real economy. They should all consult their German counterparts given the alarming data coming out of that place and how much that helps explain oil and everything else. Lees meerEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Chair Jerome H. Powell Remarks November 8, 2023
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231108a.htmBloomberg: Scholz Tells Global Elite in Davos That German Economy Is Back
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/scholz-tells-global-elite-in-davos-that-german-economy-is-backBloomberg: Scholz’s Advisers Slash Forecast for German Growth Next Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-08/scholz-s-advisers-slash-forecast-for-german-growth-next-yearTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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